Subj : Russia's Defeat
To   : KAELON
From : Dumas Walker
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 09:10 am

>I genuinely think Ukraine, from a vast geopolitical perspective, was the
rial-
>un or beta-test for the next World War. Much like the Spanish Civil War was
he
>practice round for the Axis vs. the Allies in World War II. And yet, unlike
pa
>n, the Ukrainian example has demonstrated that authoritarian regimes are far
e
>s stable than they have suggested, and that corruption and mismanagement have

>aced their armed forces at a tremendous disadvantage. Remember: for China, who
>as been watching with baited breath, they have never had a successful military
>onflict with the West in their entire history. They need one to solidify their
>scension to global superpower status.

This is an interesting point.  The Spanish Civil War was indeed a trial run
for several of Germany's new war technologies and strategies.  It is
possible that Putin (or others) saw Ukraine as a similar test.

>What comes next for Russia is deeply problematic. I am genuinely surprised
hat
>Putin has not been assassinated, or more likely "sent to a hospital in
iberia"
>and then replaced, because the string of failures Russia has encountered will

>ad to the emboldened separatism of its many republics (states). Remember:
ussi
> is not ethnically Russian, and the demographic collapse of the Russian People
>and the Russian Federation as a whole, is largely existential. For Putin, he
a
>the restoration of the Soviet Empire as a way to forstall this sociopolitical

>llapse. That's clearly no longer genuinely possible, and with Russia's
umiliat
>on, it has become a regional player for the balance of its modern existence.

If this were the USSR days, I have no doubt that Putin would have been
moved aside by now.  You bring up another interesting point, that much of
the territory of Russia includes republics that are not ethnically Russian.
 I have found some irony in this war in that one of Putin's supposedly most
ardent supporters is the leader of Chechnya, which in the recent past had a
strong separatist movement and is majority muslim.  The current leadership
has apparently gotten rich off of being an ally of Russia.  Otherwise, I
would expect that area to be the first to try to break away.

I have not kept up recently with other areas of unrest in the Federation.

IIRC, the Crimea is more ethnically Russian than Ukrainian.  Crimea was
moved under the Ukraine SSR by Moscow sometime during the Cold War.


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