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#Post#: 43047--------------------------------------------------
Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Checkmate Date: March 3, 2024, 8:46 am
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NORTHEASTERN (12-19, 7-11 CAA)
Last Game: Drexel 73, Northeastern 59 on 3/2/24
Last Game vs SBU: Stony Brook 59, Northeastern 55 on 2/3/24; SBU
11-0 run after trailing by six with four minutes left; no
Doherty or Sakota
Checkmate Guess the Line: Stony Brook -3.5
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 193, Northeastern 242
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 185, Northeastern 245
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 74, Northeastern 72
Watch:
(HTM) https://my.flosports.tv/partner/caa?utm_campaign=caa&utm_medium=partner&utm_source=teams&utm_content=teams&rtid=stonybrook&coverage_id=
Listen: TBD
TSM Point Watch: 1,277; Next up: 12th – Akwasi Yeboah (2016-19)
1,317
Notables:
6-7/235 gr F Chris Doherty 13.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .527 FG%
6-6/200 gr G Luka Sakota 10.7 ppg, .870 FT%
6-5/200 so G Harold Woods 10.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .555 FG%
6-6/200 so G Masai Troutman 9.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 spg, .365 3-pt
FG%
6-6/200 so G Rashad King 8.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg
Is it actually hard to beat a team three times?
(HTM) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-really-is-harder-to-beat-a-team-the-third-time-in-mens-college-basketball/.<br
/>Synopsis: Twenty seasons of data. Based on adjusted efficiency
,
we have a 63% chance of victory.
I think that's about right. Although, ugh, KenPom has it as a
one-possession game. And we barely beat them with two key pieces
(three if you count Pridgen) missing the last time. Maybe it's
closer to a coin flip [emoji16]
The three-pointer's been a friend to us this year, as we hit our
highest percentage of threes since the 2015-16 campaign, when we
made 37 percent of them. If you take out the COVID season of
2020-21, we also attempted the fewest since then, yet made the
fifth most in our history. From two, our conversion rate was
just shy of the Tykei-led 2021-22 team, and well shy of the '16
team again.
The threes are noteworthy because Northeastern's three-point
defense is the worst in the CAA (.373; 14th worst in America),
and they don't help themselves on the other end, ranking second
to last in three-point percentage (.318). We went 10 for 31 in
our two games with them, while NU shot 10 for 45.
They do have guys who can make them. Turner hit five against us
at our place, and Troutman made better than 40 percent of his
shots from deep during the conference slate. They're both
sophomores, along with Woods and King, so Coen has a nice
foundation for the future with Doherty and (I think) Sakota
departing.
Predicted award winners:
POY: Thomas, Hofstra
COY: Spiker, Drexel
ROY: Valencia, Monmouth
DPOY: Williams, Drexel
6th man: Rodgers, Charleston
1st team: Thomas, Hofstra; White, UNCW; Rice, Monmouth;
Williams, Drexel; Brzovic, Charleston
2nd team: Dubar, Hofstra; Carlos, Hofstra; Stephenson-Moore,
Stony Brook; Davis, Delaware; Dell'Orso, Campbell
3rd team: Smith, Charleston; Doherty, Northeastern; Thompson,
Towson; Glasper, UNC A&T; Phillips, UNCW
I feel like these are the 15. Maybe Burnham sneaks on; Mullen
less likely IMO. Could Dubar be a second Hofstra guy on the
first team?
Final regular season plus/minus for our regulars ...
PLUS/MINUS
[table][tr][td]
Name [/td]
[td]Season [/td]
[td]CAA [/td]
[td]Minutes[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]TSM[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]58[/td]
[td]982[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Fitzmorris[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]766[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Philip[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]24[/td]
[td]228[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Frey[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]683[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Maidoh[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]30[/td]
[td]632[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Clarke[/td]
[td]-2[/td]
[td]50[/td]
[td]875[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Noll[/td]
[td]-19[/td]
[td]19[/td]
[td]840[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Onyekonwu [/td]
[td]-45[/td]
[td]-22[/td]
[td]337[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Snoddy[/td]
[td]-73[/td]
[td]-9[/td]
[td]764[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Other stats:
Paint points: SBU 716, Opp 882
Pts off TOs: SBU 340, Opp 365
2nd chance pts: SBU 296, Opp 349
Fast break pts: SBU 185, Opp 224
Bench pts: SBU 583, Opp 525
We've played well enough away from home to suggest that we can
win two or more games on a neutral floor. Yes, gotta get the
first one. We're 2-6 against the six teams ahead of us, and
there's a world where we're 8-0 in those games. The only
non-single-digit game of the lot was our whipping of Delaware of
Saturday. We had a second-half lead in seven of those games,
except Towson, in which we had chances late before getting
dusted in OT. The flipside of that is ... can we close? In those
eight games, against better teams, we were outscored in the
second half in six of them, five times by nine or more points.
We've seen leads evaporate quickly when the pressure's come. The
game was hanging in the balance yet again on Saturday, but we
responded well.
This is a big game for Geno. He's signed and all, but a first
(er, second) round exit would undo a lot of positivity about
this season. We aren't the 9 seed as predicted; we got the 7. We
matched our highest win total in conference since Boals left (in
the middle of the night). It's been a nice season. But we need
the Saturday game. Anything after that is a bonus.
I feel like we're in a good spot. We have the best player on the
floor. We have senior guards, size inside, wings who defend
(Snoddy/Philip), some shotmakers. Northeastern is definitely a
threat though. Here's hoping we put together a solid 40 minutes
and move on to the next one.
#Post#: 43068--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Accelerator Date: March 5, 2024, 11:25 am
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The only thing separating us from the top 4 double bye was those
2 losses to Hofstra, which hurts that much more in hindsight.
#Post#: 43072--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: March 5, 2024, 2:22 pm
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Informative post; lots to parse until game time. Based on sheer
#'s and stats, Thomas will probably get PoY. He played poorly
the first time we saw him, and played much better the 2nd time,
and beat us on that awkward shot. Haven't seen enough of the
other teams to make a real counter to that.
We didn't see a full team last time we played NE. I think
KenPom has it right; a real pick-em'. I really hope we can
extend our season until Sunday, and then play loose against a
talented Drexel team. Not rooting for Drexel, but they are my
pick to win it all.
#Post#: 43081--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Checkmate Date: March 6, 2024, 9:53 am
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ESPN predictions for the tournament ...
Borzello: Hofstra
Gasaway: UNC Wilmington
Lunardi: Charleston
Medcalf: Hofstra
Why Charleston will win: It is an admittedly wide-open CAA
tournament, and any of our picks -- plus Drexel -- could cut
down the nets. But Charleston comes in the hottest, winning nine
straight and 11 of its past 12 games. The Cougars also lost
twice to UNCW in the regular season, and I don't think there's
enough true separation for either to beat the other three times.
-- Lunardi
Why Hofstra will win: Charleston should be the favorite to cut
down the nets; Pat Kelsey's team is looking like the group that
went to the NCAA tournament a year ago. But I sense a potential
upset in Washington, D.C. The Pride are playing the best defense
in the league over the past month, and Tyler Thomas is capable
of going for 35 and carrying this team to a bid. -- Borzello
Why UNC Wilmington will win: Which CAA team have we been
tracking as an off-off-bubble hopeful at Bubble Watch all
season? Wilmington, that's who! (Well, also Charleston. It's a
good league.) Trazarien White is a throwback who has played for
Seahawks his entire career, paid his dues and now averages 20
points as a junior. -- Gasaway
Here are VSIN's tournament odds:
1. Charleston (+225)
2. Drexel (+380)
3. Hofstra (+280)
4. UNC Wilmington (+380)
5. Towson (+950)
6. Delaware (+1300)
7. Stony Brook (+3000)
8. Monmouth (+3500)
9. Campbell (+25000)
10. Northeastern (+5000)
11. Elon (+50000)
12. North Carolina A&T (+50000)
13. William & Mary (+50000)
14. Hampton (+50000)
Northeastern at +5000, compared to +25000 for Campbell, is
strange.
#Post#: 43090--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Checkmate Date: March 7, 2024, 1:30 pm
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2023-24 CAA awardees
1st team: Thomas, Hofstra; White, UNCW; Rice, Monmouth;
Williams, Drexel; Brzovic, Charleston
2nd team: Dubar, Hofstra; Stephenson-Moore, Stony Brook; Davis,
Delaware; Dell'Orso, Campbell; Smith, Charleston
3rd team: Burnham, Charleston; Thompson, Towson; Glasper, UNC
A&T; Phillips, UNCW; Moore, Drexel
All Defensive: Carlos, Hofstra; Phillips, UNCW; Thompson,
Towson; Valencia, Monmouth; Williams, Drexel
POY: Thomas
COY: Kelsey, Charleston
DPOY: Williams
ROY: Tejada, Towson
I can't believe Carlos got left off the all-conference teams
entirely. First in assists (by a mile), third in steals,
second-place team, and nothing? I'm surprised. Moore is very
talented, but I just thought Carlos had the much better year.
Well-deserved accolades for TSM. I think if you picked the top
five guys in the league with G League/NBA promise, he's on that
list. Excellent year for him.
#Post#: 43091--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Accelerator Date: March 7, 2024, 2:09 pm
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Well deserved for TSM. I think the only thing stopping him from
being first team is that we didn't win enough games. 16 PPG, 43%
3pt shooter, 84% FT, and a great defender as well, definitely a
place for him there if we were top 4.
#Post#: 43094--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: sbupatriots Date: March 7, 2024, 3:17 pm
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Think TSM gets a summer league look this year? Feels like he
could be a solid backup SG somewhere.
#Post#: 43097--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: Checkmate Date: March 7, 2024, 6:50 pm
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[quote author=sbupatriots link=topic=1098.msg43094#msg43094
date=1709846246]
Think TSM gets a summer league look this year? Feels like he
could be a solid backup SG somewhere.
[/quote]
Maybe? I don't think he sniffs the NBA, but if Iroegbu can play
a little bit in the G League, TSM surely can. It's up to 31
teams now too. The LI Nets have a guy who averaged 11 points as
a senior at UWGB, and another guy from Temple who averaged 11
for his career. I have to think TSM can get a cup of coffee.
#Post#: 43102--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: March 9, 2024, 9:21 am
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Congrats to TSM on a great season. His shooting has improved
immensely since his early days at SBU. He is a superb defender.
The thing that I marvel most about him is his incredible
elevation ability, which aids his defense and makes him a
formidable rebounding guard. He'll play somewhere (prob in
Europe) - there are just so many great ballers out there, it's
hard to predict what his ceiling will be as a pro.
In other news, Hampton with mini-upset last night over Elon.
The Hampton game was the only home game I attended live this
year, and I felt that they were incredibly athletic, but just
had no clue when it came to playing defense. Id' love to see
them knock off Delaware tonight; I think they can do it.
Getting excited about tonight's game, but am concerned about
playing a full NE-squad at a neutral site and having to beat
them for the 3rd straight time. I know that there is no
tomorrow, but I would get TO 10-15 minutes tonight in the spirit
of having to play another game tomorrow (and possibly beyond).
#Post#: 43103--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 32: CAA second round – vs Northeastern, 3/9 6pm
By: SBU03 Date: March 9, 2024, 10:05 am
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Is this game on TV at all? Surprised it is not on SNY
considering a lot of regular season games were on there.
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