Subj : MESO: Severe Potential SE
To   : All
From : Dumas Walker
Date : Tue Apr 09 2024 09:15 am

ACUS11 KWNS 091348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091348 
LAZ000-TXZ000-091545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091348Z - 091545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning.

DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly
low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region
of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across
parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity
across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south
of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating
remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and
northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will
foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very
large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread
east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for
severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the
outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch
issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in
coverage and intensity across central TX.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343
            31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806 


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