Subj : DAY2SVR: Enhanced Risk MW To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Mon May 06 2024 01:23 pm ACUS02 KWNS 061730 SWODY2 SPC AC 061728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible, particularly from northeast Indiana into northwest and central Ohio. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to remain largely in place over the western Dakotas while continuing to occlude. A convectively augmented shortwave trough will likely move through the base of this cyclone, progressing from the Mid MS Valley quickly northeastward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes during the day. Primary surface low will occlude beneath the parent cyclone, but a secondary low will likely develop at the triple point, moving from the MN/IA border vicinity east-northeastward across central/southern MN into Lower MI. The cold front extending southward from this secondary low is forecast to push eastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while the warm front shifts northeastward into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. ....Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... A decaying convective line will likely extend from southern WI through western IL and into western portions of the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. Buoyancy will be modest ahead of this line, which will likely limit the severe potential. Even so, there is still a low-probability chance for a few instances of hail and/or damaging gusts, particularly along the southern end of the convective line in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy is greatest. The convective line is expected to make quick northeastward progress, clearing the through the Lower OH Valley by the late morning and much of the Middle OH Valley by the early afternoon. The air mass is expected to recover quickly in its wake, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting in from the southwest. Additional thunderstorm development is expected around 17-18Z across IL, supported by both warm-air advection and increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This initial activity will likely be elevated, but shear is strong enough to support some more organized structures capable of hail. As the downstream airmass across OH and IN destabilizes, these initial storms will likely trend towards becoming more surface-based. Given the strong vertical shear in place, the potential for supercells will increase as storms become surface based. All severe hazards will be possible with these supercells, including large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to maximize from northeast IN into western and central OH during the late afternoon/early evening, where the proximity to the warm front will contribute to better low-level shear. ....Upper Midwest... Despite relatively cool surface temperatures, cooling mid-levels coupled with modest low-level moisture are expected to result in airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the triple point and associated surface boundaries. Thunderstorm development is anticipated both near the triple point, as well as along and north/northeast of the occluded front. Much of the activity in the vicinity of the occluded front will likely be elevated, but a few stronger updrafts capable of hail are still possible. More surface-based storms are possible near the triple point across southern WI. Here, isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible. ....Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South... This region will be displaced south of the stronger forcing for ascent, but moderate buoyancy and vertical shear still suggest there is isolated severe potential with any storms that do form. Current guidance suggests the greatest probability of storms exists across MS and AL where the low-level moisture convergence is greatest. ....Central Texas... The severe thunderstorm threat remains highly conditional across parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. Large-scale ascent will be negligible, with thunderstorm initiation relying on surface convergence. If any thunderstorms can form and persist, they could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario remain too uncertain to add low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Mosier.. 05/06/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .