Subj : ENHANCED RISK - Texas To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Thu May 16 2024 07:58 am ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ....Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ....Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ...Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .