Subj : Enhanced Risk C Plains To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed May 22 2024 05:52 pm ACUS02 KWNS 221741 SWODY2 SPC AC 221739 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Mid-South on Thursday. Damaging winds, damaging hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. The greatest concentration of severe wind is expected over parts of Nebraska into northern Kansas late, where gusts over 80 mph are expected. ....Synopsis... Two primary shortwave troughs will exist on Thursday. The leading trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast late, with another moving from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. To the south, moderate to strong mid and high level westerlies will persist across the southern states, with embedded disturbances from TX into the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will push east from NY into New England during the day, while the westward extension of this boundary becomes a warm front and lifts north across the Mid MS and lower MO Valleys. Rich low-level moisture with 70s F dewpoints from TX to the lower MS Valley will spread north across OK, AR, and into southern KS and MO, in anticipation of the northern Plains shortwave trough. During the afternoon, a surface trough will deepen from SD into eastern CO, with a surging cold front moving rapidly south into the central Plains overnight. ....Northern TX/OK into AR... Areas of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from AR into TN Thursday morning, with attendant midlevel wave moving quickly eastward. Some of this activity could pose a damaging wind risk, depending on level of organization at that time. To the west, moisture and instability will build across the region as southerly winds increase advection and the air mass over TX recovers from the previous nights convection. Given the rapid moisture return, substantial low clouds will be possible over much of the area. Indeed, the steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain well west into from western KS into the TX Panhandle and South Plains west of the dryline. Isolated, and perhaps short lived activity cannot be ruled out along a very narrow zone there at peak heating, with hail threat. Otherwise, a large area of moisture and instability will conditionally favor severe storms from OK to the ArkLaTex, however, uncertainty exists regarding what will focus development. The deepening moist layer may eventually erode CIN from below, in which case storms that develop with clearly have very large hail potential due to steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. A brief tornado or two may also occur. ....Central and northern Plains... A very unstable air mass will develop during the afternoon, well ahead of the developing cold front. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, with low-level moisture rapidly spreading north during the evening. Initial supercells are expected from west-central into central NE, with an eventual severe MCS developing. Forecast soundings during the evening indicate very steep lapse rates aloft and otherwise supercellular wind profiles, however, given the eventual upscale growth, a particularly severe MCS is forecast. Significant wind gusts as well as wind-driven hail will be possible. In addition, brief tornadoes are expected. This activity may reach the MO River into Friday morning. ...Jewell.. 05/22/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .