Subj : Severe Potential East US To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Mon May 27 2024 11:01 am ACUS11 KWNS 271553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271553 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-271800- Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE... central/western PA...NJ...and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271553Z - 271800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting organized bands of convection is already in place across the region. A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. ...Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 45057540 44787471 42487405 40527353 37787411 37767592 37877795 38037854 38547872 40997745 43887704 44547643 45057540 = = = --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .