Subj : Day 1 Enhanced Risk MN/WI To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed Jun 12 2024 08:17 am ACUS01 KWNS 121204 SWODY1 SPC AC 121202 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ....Southern MN/WI early today... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD. These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening, posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ....Northern MN/WI later today... In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells. Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail. ...Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .