Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding SW US To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Mon Jul 01 2024 02:31 pm AWUS01 KWNH 011804 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020003- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 204 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Southwest U.S. Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 011803Z - 020003Z SUMMARY...Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity will be developing soon over areas the Southwest U.S. with notable concerns for more flash flooding expected over the normally dry washes and the area burn scar locations. This is especially the case for the burn scar complex involving the Sacramento Mountains in central NM and the Lincoln National Forest. DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture remains deeply entrenched over the Southwest U.S. again today and visible satellite imagery shows an elongated axis of MCV energy stretching from central AZ through northwest NM which is leftover energy from last evening's convective activity. PWs over the region remain anomalously high with values that are locally 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and especially from southern AZ through northwest NM. Strong diurnal heating has already resulted in SBCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is in the early stages of occurring over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim in AZ and the higher terrain of central through western NM as differential heating boundaries and localized upslope flow into the terrain focuses convective growth. The Sacramento Mountains in central NM with a focus on the Lincoln National Forest continue to be extremely sensitive to heavy shower and thunderstorm activity given the burn scar complex involving the Blue-2, South Fork and McBride burn areas. This region this afternoon and evening is expected to see additional heavy rainfall from monsoonal convection and thus will be susceptible again to enhanced runoff impacts and flash flooding including debris flow activity. Elsewhere across much of central and eastern AZ through western and northern NM. Monsoonal convection is expected to initiate and gradually expand in coverage in a scattered to broken fashion. The proximity of the MCV energy will also gradually help focus expanding areas of convection. Given the level of moisture and instability, rainfall rates throughout the Southwest are expected to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour, with some isolated storm totals by this evening of 2 to 4 inches. Some spotty heavier totals will be possible where any cells become anchored near the higher terrain. The normally dry washes and area burn scars again will be particularly vulnerable to flash flooding impacts. Orrison ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36800678 36650548 35900474 34800435 33380457 32350526 31720645 31300851 31171047 31501213 32731281 34171266 35371310 36481212 36691075 36610945 36580824 --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .