Subj : Heavy downpours expected across most of the country this week
To   : All
From : News Person
Date : Mon Apr 08 2024 01:33 pm

A series of fronts moving in from the Tasman Sea are expected to bring
"significant heavy downpours" for most of the country beginning today, said
MetService.


MetService meteorologist Oscar Shiviti said showers were expected to begin in
Fiordland this afternoon with the rain set to push north as the day
progresses.


From tomorrow, rain is expected across the Westland ranges.


"There is moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall over
much of Fiordland, but high confidence there will be a heavy rain warning in
place for northern Fiordland and the ranges of the Westland District."


Severe northerly gales are also possible at exposed parts of Fiordland,
western Southland, and Stewart Island.


On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move slowly over the South Island,
bringing strong northerly winds and rain to many places around the southern
North Island and the South Island.


Here's a look at one of our in-house models.

This is a running 24 hour rainfall forecast.

Predicted rainfall is shown by the size of the bars ??.

Also, the trend of the bars [growing ?? or shrinking ??] indicates forecast
rain intensity.

More rain is expected beyond Thu AM. pic.twitter.com/zJSjaJZkwX

- NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) April 8, 2024
There is "high confidence" a heavy rain warning will persist for the Westland
District, and "moderate confidence" a warning amount of rain will occur in
northern Fiordland and the headwaters of Otago and Canterbury.


"This is expected to be a significant heavy rain event for Westland, with the
potential for an upgrade to a red warning over the coming days. However,
there is some uncertainty with the movement of this front, and the placement
of heaviest rain may change."


A 48-hour heavy rain watch has been issued, set to apply from 6pm tomorrow
for the Westland District, about and north of Hokitika, and for the Grey
District.


Rain watches have also been issued for Fiordland south of George Sound.


For the South Island, an atmospheric river will team up with low pressure to
produce multiple days of heavy rain.

The band of heaviest rain will meander in response to the approaching low.

For some, rainfall totals may reach 1-2 times the April normal.

Flooding is a concern. pic.twitter.com/i1ejxUU1ts

- NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) April 7, 2024
Shiviti said there is low confidence a warning will be needed for rain north
of Greymouth, the Richmond Range and western Marlborough.


Strong winds are likely around inland Otago and Canterbury, the Marlborough
Sounds, Wellington and southern Wairarapa.


A series of lows could develop on the slow-moving front over the South Island
on Thursday, said Shiviti, with strong northerlies and rain expected to move
onto the North Island.


Rain is expected for most of Te Ika-a-Maui, except for Gisborne, Wairarapa,
Wellington and Manawatu, he said.


"There remains a high confidence that a heavy rain warning will be place for
the Westland District and the headwaters of Otago and Canterbury," he said.


"There is also moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall in
northern Tasman, Nelson and western Marlborough.


"For the northern and central North Island, the Buller and Grey Districts and
northern Fiordland, there is low confidence that a rain warning will be
needed."


Severe northerly gales are possible in Taranaki, Wellington, southern
Wairarapa and northern Marlborough.


On Friday, the front and associated lows move slowly east, with "moderate
confidence" warning amounts of rain will fall from Taranaki to the Bay of
Plenty.


"For northern Tasman, Nelson and northwest Marlborough there is also moderate
confidence that a rainfall warning will be needed.


"Outside these areas there are many districts with low confidence that
warning amounts of rain will fall, covering most of the north and central
North Island, the Tararua Range, the Buller, Grey and Westland Districts,
South Canterbury and eastern Otago."

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