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September 18, 2009

Somali Militants Trying to Break Peacekeeper Morale, says Analyst
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ICG's Rashid Abdi says AMISOM resolve is strong, but more international
support needed 
Black smoke rises from the AMISOM base in Mogadishu, 17 Sep
2009Thursday's suicide bombings in Somalia
may be aimed at sending a message to the United States and breaking the
morale
of UNISOM peacekeepers, says Rashid Abdi, an analyst for the
International
Crisis Group.

The
bombings killed more than 20 people, including AMISOM's deputy
commander.

US
forces staged a helicopter raid in Somalia Monday that reportedly killed
Saleh
Ali Saleh Nabhan, one of Africa's most wanted members of al-Qaida.

"This
looks like…retaliation for US action. I
think it also comes against the background of threats that have been
there…when
al-Shabaab indicated that they are going to target AMISOM troops," he
says.

Expect more militant group attacks 

"I think these kinds of attacks will
continue. But…we must realize that there
is also resolve on the part of the international community to keep these
peacekeepers there. Although some kind
of disappointment will be there on the part of Amisom, I don't think
this will
create a morale crisis," he says. 

Nevertheless, he believes al-Shabaab
and al-Qaida will try to create one.
Al-Shabaab has warned Djibouti not to send troops to AMISOM.

"I
think obviously these kinds of attacks do not help those countries that
want to
send peacekeepers. I think one of the reasons
why there has been a great deal of reluctance on the part of some other
African
troop-contributing countries is precisely because of this kind of
action," he
says.

However,
he says there's a growing "realization" among the international
community that
more needs to be done.

"Unless
there is some…increased troop levels, then probably the whole future
of the
Transition Federal Government (TFG) hangs very much in the balance," he
says.

Abdi
describes the TFG as "very weak."

"It
controls very little territory in Mogadishu.
It is increasingly under pressure from al-Shabaab and the
insurgents. It's now reliant on AMISOM
to basically survive. And I think this
attack is virtually aimed at creating panic and sowing a morale crisis
within
AMISOM so that they pull out," he says.

Effect of US raid

"I think it is difficult to tell at
this stage the impact that the removal of such a high-level figure
(Nabhan)
will have on the movement itself. There
are mixed views," he says.

Some
say it won't have any major effect, while others say the loss of Nabhan
will
affect al-Shabaab's ability to launch similar attacks in the future.

"Everything is up in the air at this
moment," he says.

				
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