Originally posted by the Voice of America.
Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America,
a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in
the public domain.


               Questions Abound Over Growth Statistics in Africa

   by Peter Heinlein

   Economic statistics regularly show steady progress in Africa's
   development, even as  much of the continent remains mired in poverty.
   One scholar says the truth often is obscured by a raft of misleading
   statistics.
   Ethiopia announced last week that its economy had grown at a rate of
   more than 10 percent over the past two years. Official statistics
   indicate the Horn of Africa country has maintained double-digit growth
   for nearly a decade.
   Ethiopia is not alone among sub-Saharan African nations announcing
   strong growth figures. Figures supplied by the [1]International
   Monetary Fund and The Economist magazine indicate Africa has surpassed
   Asia as the fastest growing continent. They predict that seven of the
   world's 10 fastest growing economies over the next five years will be
   in Africa. Ethiopia leads the way, followed by Mozambique, Tanzania,
   Congo, Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria.
   Yet many of these same countries rank among the world's poorest.
   Growth figures are often used to justify calls for bigger development
   budgets as a way to shrink the gap between rich and poor. Economic
   historian Morten Jerven of Simon Fraser University in Canada, however,
   said the data can be deceiving. Jerven told a recent development
   conference at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced
   International Studies in Washington that his research shows the numbers
   often appear to be manipulated, or even made up by governments to
   produce desired outcomes.
   Jerven said statistical offices are under pressure to tell their
   bosses, and more importantly, potential aid donors, that development
   programs are working.
   "There is one big problem, that is, there is always political pressure.
   In any statistical office in any country in the world, they would know
   more or less what the number the executive politicians would like to
   have... if you report a high number you'll get more support, and if you
   report a low number you'll get less support, then clearly one needs to
   rethink the independence of these data collection procedures," he said.
   Jerven said the inaccuracies are compounded by big international
   development agencies that compile the data and pass it on, thereby
   adding their credibility to statistics that often are misleading.

   "I point the big finger of blame at the [2]World Bank data group in
   this respect. They are one of the main agencies that collect data from
   national statistical offices and compile them in a big database where
   they are disseminated. We like to download these statistics from the
   World Bank and others, and we like to think they mean something. Most
   of the time they are just guessing, and we are often fooled when we do
   this," said Jerven.
   The Canadian researcher said that in some cases, statistics that are
   "massaged" for political reasons can lead to absurd conclusions.
   "In Malawi, where every year since they introduced a fertilizer
   subsidy, Malawi could report even higher maize production, to the
   extent that it became ridiculous. It got to be that either Malawians
   were putting on a huge amount of weight [to consume the amount of maize
   produced] or the numbers were simply not true," he said.
   Jerven's study covered Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi,
   Zambia and Botswana. Twenty other countries participated through an
   email survey.
   The full story is available in Jerven's book, titled [3]Poor Numbers:
   How We are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do
   About It?
     __________________________________________________________________

   [4]http://www.voanews.com/content/questions-abound-over-growth-statisti
   cs-in-africa/1656371.html

References

   1. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car022812a.htm
   2. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/EXTPUBREP/EXTSTATINAFR/0,,menuPK:824057~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:824043,00.html
   3. http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?gcoi=80140100939320
   4. http://www.voanews.com/content/questions-abound-over-growth-statistics-in-africa/1656371.html