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             Syria's Chemical Weapons Vulnerable as Conflict Widens

   by Andre de Nesnera

   As fighting continues between Syrian government troops and a variety of
   opposition forces, including Islamic militants, there are growing
   concerns about the security and vulnerability of Syria's suspected
   chemical weapons stockpiles.
   Syria is said to have one of the world's largest chemical weapons
   arsenals, including mustard gas, the nerve agent sarin and VX - the
   most toxic of all chemical agents. Syria also has the military hardware
   to deliver chemical weapons such as ballistic missiles, artillery
   rockets and shells as well as bombs dropped from airplanes.
   But experts say there is very little hard data on Syria's chemical
   weapons program. Syria decided not to be party to the Chemical Weapons
   Convention that outlaws the production, possession and use of such
   weapons.
   Most of the stockpile estimates come from intelligence agencies and
   analysts. They believe Syria's chemical weapons are produced in four or
   five facilities and stored in dozens of places throughout the country.
   Finding chemical weapons sites
   Greg Thielman, an analyst with the Arms Control Association, a private
   research firm, said the U.S. intelligence community has a pretty good
   idea of where some of the chemical weapons stockpiles are. But he also
   issued a warning.
   "One recalls how definitively [Defense Secretary] Donald Rumsfeld said
   we knew exactly where Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons were and of
   course he didn't have any at that point," said Thielman. "So I'm sure
   we don't know all the locations. I'm sure we know some of them, but
   they are multiple and I know that western intelligence services are
   trying to keep an eye on the ones we know."
   Thielman said that while there is a chance that these weapons could
   fall into the hands of militant groups such as Hezbollah or al-Qaida,
   that threat so far appears to be in check.
   "One of the silver linings to the dark cloud over Syria at the moment,
   is that as far as we know, these large stockpiles of chemical weapons
   are still securely in the hands of the Assad regime, which means that
   at least right now, there is not a high danger of the chemical weapons
   stockpiles being disseminated to non-governmental terrorist groups."
   How to secure chemical weapons
   There has been some discussion about what to do to secure the Syrian
   chemical weapons arsenal if the crisis escalates.
   The U.S. Defense Department estimates it would take 75,000 American
   forces to properly secure the stockpiles.
   John Pike, head of Globalsecurity.org, a firm specializing in defense
   issues, said "Obviously sending in western troops to secure stockpiles
   in Syria would be a real challenge."
   "For the Syrians who spent a long time developing that capability, they
   aren't just going to turn it over as soon as the Americans showed up.
   So you would have to fight your way through the Syrian army in order to
   get to it," he said.
   Some have called for western nations to bomb suspected Syrian chemical
   weapons sites.
   Bomb chemical sites?
   But that idea is rejected by Greg Thielman of the Arms Control
   Association.
   "Sometimes I read that we should attack some of the chemical weapons
   facilities. I think that is a very reckless charge," he said.
   "Any kind of kinetic action against the facilities would likely spread
   [nerve] agents to innocent civilians - and it's just a very reckless
   charge," said Thielman. "And in light of the enormous cost of the Iraq
   war in terms of lost opportunities, American deaths, Iraqi deaths,
   maimed Americans, budget deficits - how can people make these
   suggestions so casually. It baffles me."
   Analysts reflect western fears that if rebels, combined with militant
   or Islamist forces, continue to gain control in more areas of the
   country, Syria's chemical stockpile will be vulnerable. Depending on
   who gets their hands on chemical weapons, and what they do with them,
   analysts warn what happens next is anybody's guess.
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/syrias-chemical-weapons-vulnerable-as
   -conflict-widens/1658696.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/syrias-chemical-weapons-vulnerable-as-conflict-widens/1658696.html