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                     Saudis Shun Diplomacy in Syria Crisis

   by Elizabeth Arrott

   Saudi Arabia has backed Syria's rebels in a civil war that has directly
   affected much of the region, but with little transparency in the
   kingdom, its precise role remains unclear.

   While many across the Middle East welcome the diplomatic push for Syria
   to hand over its chemical weapons, Riyadh, one of the strongest
   supporters of U.S. military intervention against Syrian President
   Bashar al-Assad, is not happy about the switch from strikes to talks.

   "[The Saudis] estimate that the deal over chemical weapons is, one, not
   feasible, but, two, makes it even harder to intervene and brings Bashar
   al-Assad back into the bargaining game, which is their biggest
   problem," says Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow at the International
   Institute for Strategic Studies. "They've spent the past two and half
   years trying to delegitimize Assad, and that deal turns Assad into a
   partner."

   According to Hokayem, Saudi leaders had wanted an even bigger military
   campaign against Assad than the limited strikes outlined by the U.S.

   It's a dynamic that has played out throughout the conflict: Saudis
   giving money and weapons to the full spectrum of Syria's rebels, with
   the U.S. apparently taking a more cautious approach.

   Riyadh's logic is partially sectarian, with the kingdom's Sunni leaders
   arming the mainly Sunni rebels: An offensive against Assad, of the
   Shi'ite-offshoot Alawite sect, could tip the balance of power in a
   stalemate that has neighboring countries lined up largely along
   religious lines.

   But political scientist Christian Donath, of the American University in
   Cairo, thinks current U.S. plans would fail to do that.

   "I don't know whether the U.S. strikes are going to have any kind of
   effect, specifically on the sectarian tension, or whether it
   essentially will just serve to weaken to some extent the Assad regime's
   military capacity," he says.

   Saudi animosity is not aimed exclusively at Syria's government, but
   also at Assad's biggest regional backer, Iran, a Shi'ite-led Saudi
   rival. Syria also receives additional help from Shi'ite Hezbollah
   fighters from Lebanon.

   But political analyst Hokayem says it's not all about religion.

   "The regime of Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah have allowed Iran to
   become a primary power in the Eastern Mediterranean," he says. "And
   there's a sense that if you win in Syria, you win the entire Levant
   because Syria is the big power there."

   But other analysts say there may be no winning a regional struggle for
   dominance.

   "Saudi Arabia is rich in oil, but their military capability, their soft
   power and their model is weak," says Mustafa Labbad, director of the Al
   Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies. "So everyone is
   ambitious but no single country can play a regional role as it is
   described in international relations and strategy."

   But that hasn't kept Saudi Arabia, or its rivals, from trying.
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References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/saudis-shun-diplomacy-in-syria-crisis/1749184.html