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        More Political Turmoil Likely in Iraq as Iran Waits in the Wings

   by Jamie Dettmer

   Firebrand Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the figure at the center of
   Iraq's current political tempest, may be agitating and directing his
   supporters in the name of reform, but he and his followers, who
   ransacked the national parliament at the weekend, risk worsening Iraq's
   sectarian divisions.

   The ultimate beneficiary of Iraq's unfolding political crisis and
   weakened government will likely be Iran, say analysts, who warn that
   Tehran, even though it may not be engineering the Sadrist protests, is
   seeking to leverage its influence on its neighbor.

   ''And the Sadrists plan to hold more anti-corruption protests in the
   Iraqi capital Friday as they push for the scrapping of a now-hated
   quota system that guarantees the country's political factions a share
   of government jobs and patronage. They present the next immediate
   challenge for embattled Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, whose own
   determined reform efforts have stalled.

   In the Kurdistan capital of Irbil, to which dozens of Iraqi lawmakers
   fled over the weekend after Sadr's followers breached the fortified
   government citadel, the Green Zone, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash
   Carter vouched for Abadi, saying he remains in a strong position.

   "Prime Minister Abadi stands for and has been a partner in all of the
   things that are important to Iraq's future," Carter said Monday,
   "namely, a country that holds together and doesn't just spiral off into
   sectarianism."

   ''Tight spot for Abadi

   Despite the U.S. vote of confidence, Iraq's prime minister remains in a
   tight corner. To head off a repeat of last weekend's protests, he and
   Iraq's ruling elite need to start implementing reforms, something that
   Abadi has been unable to do for months.

   The weekend invasion of the Green Zone saw Iraqi security personnel
   refrain from trying to repel protesters. But the demonstrations this
   Friday could be different and more violent, deepening the political
   crisis and triggering unpredictable consequences.

   "There may be units in the Iraqi army, such as the elite Golden
   Brigade, that might shoot down demonstrators," warned Sadr biographer
   Patrick Cockburn. Writing in Britain's Independent newspaper, he added,
   "The other main Shi'ite political factions are also capable of
   mobilizing their own militias to defend their interests, which they see
   as being threatened by the Sadrists. This may lead to battles between
   the different armed groups."

   Abadi's reform proposals, which would see the dismantling of much of a
   governance system that was built up since the U.S. invasion in 2003 to
   ensure all of the country's competing sects have a share in power, have
   faced massive opposition from entrenched political interests. Sunni
   leaders as well as Shi'ite rivals of Sadr depend on the patronage
   system and fear the cleric's increasing sway over poor, urban Shi'ites.

   Efforts at improvement

   Abadi, a Shi'ite himself, announced measures to improve the country's
   governance and streamline Iraq's bloated and dysfunctional bureaucracy
   last August after anti-government protests erupted in several cities
   across Iraq, with demonstrators venting anger over poor public services
   and government corruption. But Abadi has been thwarted at every turn in
   his attempts to effect change.

   Earlier this year, he drew up a list of ministers he believed could
   form a technocratic government that could start dismantling the quota
   system. But it wasn't accepted by parliamentary factions, who drew up
   their own list of nominees.

   A second list the prime minister unveiled in April prompted anger from
   Sadrists and reformers, who claimed most of the nominees would merely
   perpetuate a quota system that has allowed the ruling elite to amass
   wealth.

   And the Sadrist protests demanding the immediate implementation of
   reforms and the removal of corrupt officials aren't helping Abadi
   overcome opposition. The cleric's opponents, Shi'ite as well as Sunni,
   are now starting to equate calls for reform with Sadrist demands.

   "The populist Sadrist movement has succeeded in sidelining much of the
   broad-based civil demands for reform, effectively hijacking the
   `street' side of the anti-corruption movement," according to Hassan
   Mneimneh, an analyst at the Middle East Institute.

   Sadr and Iran

   Sadr insists his followers' protests represent a show of support for
   Abadi and that he is on the prime minister's side, although he has
   warned if Abadi doesn't secure parliamentary approval for a cabinet of
   technocrats, he will destroy the government and force early elections.

   ''Sadr's clout isn't in doubt, as he proved last weekend and in
   February, when he brought tens of thousands onto the streets of Baghdad
   to call for reform -- one of the biggest protest rallies in recent
   Iraqi history.

   What is in doubt are the 42-year-old's ultimate objectives. He shot to
   prominence after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, trading off the name
   of his father, another populist religious leader, who was assassinated
   on the orders of Saddam Hussein. Sadr formed the sectarian Shi'ite
   Mahdi Army, a militia that fought both the Iraqi government and
   American forces. By 2008, he was in Qom, Iran. He returned to Iraq in
   2011, presenting himself as a very different and more mature leader.

   One of his militias has been fighting on the government side against
   the Islamic State, and he has positioned himself as a less sectarian
   figure, promoting Iraqi unity and railing against foreign meddling in
   the country, Western or Iranian. His followers at the weekend protests
   in Baghdad could be heard chanting against Iran.

   His critics accuse him of exploiting popular anger to enhance his
   political standing -- not only in Baghdad but also in Tehran, which has
   favored other Shi'ite leaders over him.

   On Monday, Sadr traveled to Iran. His aides would not give details
   about the trip, but observers see the move as possibly paving the way
   for Sadr to smooth over the intra-Shi'ite rivalry in Iraq and to
   persuade Iran to help resolve the crisis.
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/more-political-turmoil-likely-iraq/33
   13817.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/more-political-turmoil-likely-iraq/3313817.html