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Can Russia Curb Iran's Growing Influence in Syria?

by Nisan Ahmado

   WASHINGTON --

   As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad consolidates his power over
   territories regained from Syrian rebel groups with the help of Iran and
   Russia, some experts charge that Iranian-backed proxies have started to
   go beyond their original mandate, which might prompt action from both
   Assad and Moscow to control Tehran's growing influence in Syria.

   "Iranian contribution to defeat the campaign against Assad was
   critical, but they have accomplished that objective by and large, and
   now they are in a new situation in which Iran's presence in some
   respect complicates considerations both of the Russians and certainly
   Damascus as well. That's not even beginning to address Israel and (the)
   United States' concerns," Geoffrey Aronson, an analyst at the Middle
   East Institute, told VOA.

   Aronson, who is also president of the Mortons Group, a Washington-based
   consultant group, added that all parties understand the unwritten rules
   of the game, but these rules remain unstable and encourage the kinds of
   efforts that have been seen on the part of Iran and its attempts to
   extend its influence in Syria.

   Iran's growing influence in Syria has also concerned Israel, which
   shares a border with Syria and does not want Iran to destabilize the
   region. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled
   to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss
   regional stability and Israel's national security, particularly along
   the country's border region with Syria.

   Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali
   Khamenei, also traveled to Russia last week and met with Putin,
   reportedly conveying a message from Khamenei.

   Afterward, Velayati said Iran values its relations with Russia and will
   continue its cooperation with the country in Syria.

   'Helsinki summit

   The meetings took place ahead of Monday's long-awaited summit between
   U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin in Helsinki, Finland's capital.
   The two men reportedly discussed a number of global issues, including
   Iran's destabilizing efforts in the region.

   Trump said during a joint press conference with Putin that the U.S.
   would not allow Iran to take advantage of the successful campaign
   against the Islamic State (IS) in the region.

   "I also emphasized the importance of placing pressure on Iran to halt
   its nuclear ambitions, and to stop its campaign of violence throughout
   the area, throughout the Middle East," Trump said.

   Ahead of the summit, experts and U.S. officials had expressed optimism
   that Russia would help the U.S. bring Iran under control in Syria.

   U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the U.S. Congress last month
   that he would "applaud it" if the Russians could get the Iranians out
   of Syria.

   "The answer with respect to the Russian capacity to do that is an
   open-ended question," Pompeo told U.S. lawmakers.

   "The U.S. administration has shifted its focus from Assad must leave to
   Iran must leave,' and this is the administration's main line when it
   comes to Syria. It's not about Assad, it's not about the regime," Hanin
   Ghaddar, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,
   told VOA.

   'Russia stance

   Russian officials, however, said that expecting Russia to exert
   pressure on Iran is an unreasonable demand. Last week, Dmitry Peskov, a
   spokesperson for Putin, denied media reports suggesting that Russia
   might put pressure on Iran to withdraw from Syria.

   "When reports that two countries are discussing a third country and are
   making some decisions for it that's highly unrealistic," Peskov said.

   Ghaddar, of the Washington Institute, believes the real issues is
   whether Russia really wants to clip Iran's influence in Syria.

   "The Russians still need the Iranians in Syria because the Russians do
   not control the land while the Iranians do, and this is a factor of
   power the Iranians are using," Ghaddar told VOA.

   Ghaddar added that Russia and Iran's interests in Syria could overlap
   in some areas, but they are different. She said Russia is investing in
   the Syrian state institutions and the presidency, while Iranians are
   implementing their usual strategy of creating parallel institutions
   similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

   "In Syria, they do understand (that) when their parallel institutions
   start to penetrate state institutions, this is a red line for Russia,"
   Ghaddar said.

   Assad

   Some countries of the region have also come to the realization that
   Assad might very well remain in charge of Syria as the regime is
   regaining control of the majority of the land it lost to various rebel
   groups when the civil war broke out in 2011 and when the Islamic State
   terror group emerged in 2014

   Israel's Netanyahu said last week that Israel has no conflicting
   interests with the Assad regime regarding exerting power and
   stabilizing the country.

   "What has troubled us is ISIS and Hezbollah and this has not changed.
   The heart of the matter is preserving our freedom of action against
   anyone who acts against us. Second, the removal of the Iranians from
   Syrian territory," Netanyahu said in Moscow, using an acronym for IS.

   The situation between Israel and Iran escalated last May after Israel
   accused Iran of firing missiles at the Golan Heights, which prompted
   Israel to launch airstrikes in retaliation.

   Over the past several months, Israeli jets have targeted a number of
   Iranian targets inside Syria, mainly the T4 airbase located in Homs
   governorate in central Syria, which reportedly hosts a unit of the
   Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).