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Former Rebel Leader's Return Could Upend DRC Election

by Salem Solomon

   The re-emergence of a former rebel leader convicted of war crimes could
   make the Democratic Republic of the Congo's upcoming presidential
   election even more volatile.

   Jean-Pierre Bemba will return to Congo in August and plans to run for
   president in the country's December polls, said Eve Bazaiba, the
   secretary general of the Movement for the Liberation of Congo.

   Bemba's presence could galvanize a base of supporters eager to see
   incumbent President Joseph Kabila dislodged from power. But observers
   worry about the possibility of violence in a country already on edge.

   Flouting term limits

   In 2001, when he was just 29 years old, Kabila rose to power days after
   his father Laurent, the sitting president, was assassinated.

   He won elections in 2006 and 2011, reaching the end of his second, and
   final, term in 2016. But elections for a successor were delayed in a
   move that drew widespread condemnation.

   Now, with the country set to vote at the end of the year, the
   international community has grown increasingly concerned that Kabila
   will seek a third term in violation of the constitution or cause
   further delays.

   "Kabila is, for sure, trying to run in these elections. This is his
   'Plan A,'" Adeline Van Houtte, a research analyst at the Economist
   Intelligence Unit, told VOA.

   One way Kabila could try to stay in power, Van Houtte said, is by
   exploiting a loophole in the constitution, which the country changed in
   2011. That amendment reduced the number of rounds of voting from two to
   one, a change that Kabila might argue resets the number of terms he's
   been in office.

   If that doesn't work, Van Houtte said, Kabila might hand-pick a
   successor and retain power in an informal role.

   Warlord-turned-politician

   After leading rebel forces in Congo's civil war, Bemba became one of
   four vice presidents serving under Kabila in 2003.

   He ran against Kabila for the presidency three years later, securing 42
   percent of the vote to Kabila's 58 percent in a[1] hotly contested
   runoff election.

   Bemba's political aspirations soon dwindled.

   In 2008, he was arrested and later charged with war crimes and crimes
   against humanity. The charges stemmed from actions that troops under
   Bemba's command took in the Central African Republic in 2002. His trial
   began in 2010 and became one of the International Criminal Court's most
   high-profile cases, with a [2]guilty verdict coming six years later.

   But last month, Bemba's convictions were overturned, on appeal, by the
   ICC, paving the way for his return to the DRC.

   'Dangerous' connections

   Despite the accusations of human rights violations and the time he
   spent outside the country, Bemba still has a large base of support,
   especially in the north and west of the DRC.

   His return could bring instability to an already contentious process
   because he has the capacity to start a movement, Van Houtte said.

   Congolese voters might otherwise accept another delay or a hand-picked
   successor, but Bemba could force a reckoning, if Kabila refuses to
   relinquish control, or if questions about the credibility of the
   election gain traction.

   "[Bemba] has the ability to find support at the grassroots level, and
   he has connections in former rebel networks. So that could easily
   become dangerous," Van Houtte said.

   Bemba's presence could also help Kabila by dividing the opposition.

   "It risks complicating the opposition's effort to unite behind a single
   presidential candidate," Van Houtte said. "Bemba announced that he
   would like a single [opposition] candidate for the presidency, but that
   doesn't mean they will agree on this."

   It's also not clear how strong the field of opposition candidates will
   be.

   One potential candidate, Moïse Katumbi, a wealthy businessman and the
   former governor of Katanga Province, was forced into exile in Belgium
   and is being tried on charges of "harming domestic security."

   So far, he's attempted to campaign remotely via the internet.

   Unknown intentions

   Congo has been besieged with war and violence during Kabila's tenure,
   and international pressure continues to mount for the country to
   respect the term limits enshrined in its constitution.

   Key officials were sanctioned ahead of the [3]planned 2016 election due
   to concerns they had used violence and intimidation to delay the vote.

   And Thursday, in a meeting with the United Nations Security Council,
   U.S. Deputy U.N. Ambassador Jonathan Cohen[4] expressed the United
   States' regret that Kabila has not yet confirmed that he won't run for
   a third term.

   Kabila has made no official announcement of his intentions, but recent
   moves suggest he's getting ready for a fight.

   In May, he appointed three high court judges likely to be sympathetic
   to his interpretation of the constitution.

   Earlier this month, he reshuffled the army, giving high-level
   promotions to several generals under international sanctions for
   violent crackdowns on civilians.

   Candidates have until August 8 to register their campaigns.

   Salem Solomon is a multimedia digital journalist with the Voice of
   America's Africa Division. She covers [5]the latest news from across
   the continent, and she also reports and edits in [6]Amharic and
   [7]Tigrigna.

   Salem's multimedia and data-driven projects include [8]Unrest: Ethiopia
   at a Crossroads, [9]Zimbabwe in Transition, [10]Hunger Across Africa
   and [11]How Long Have Africa's Presidents Held Office?

   Her work has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post,
   Poynter.org and Reuters. She researches trends in analytics and digital
   journalism. For tips and inquiries, email: salemsolomon@voanews.com.

References

   1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6151598.stm
   2. https://www.icc-cpi.int/pages/item.aspx?name=pr1200
   3. https://www.voanews.com/a/us-eu-drc-sanctions/3633014.html
   4. https://www.voanews.com/a/un-right-conditions-needed-credible-elections-drc/4501481.html
   5. http://www.voanews.com/author/25229.html
   6. http://amharic.voanews.com/author/25085.html
   7. http://tigrigna.voanews.com/author/25525.html
   8. https://projects.voanews.com/ethiopia-unrest/
   9. https://projects.voanews.com/zimbabwe-in-transition/
  10. http://projects.voanews.com/africa-drought/home.php
  11. http://projects.voanews.com/african-presidents/