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Turkey Warms Up to Europe as Its US Ties Fester

by Dorian Jones

   ISTANBUL, TURKEY --

   With U.S.-Turkish ties deeply strained, Ankara's relationship with
   Europe is warming. Berlin reportedly has invited Turkish President
   Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a state visit. At the same time, Erdogan is
   organizing a summit between France, Germany, and Russia to discuss
   Syria.
   This month, the Netherlands restored full diplomatic relations with
   Turkey after a bitter spat between the countries' leaders.
   For more than a year, relations between Turkey and Europe have been in
   the deep freeze. Erdogan frequently engaged in rhetoric aimed at
   infuriating European leaders, often accusing them of behaving like
   Nazis. Turkey's detention of European nationals, particularly German
   citizens, often without charge, strained relations with Berlin to the
   breaking point.
   Led by Germany, Europe had taken an increasingly assertive stance
   toward Turkey, with threats of financial and economic sanctions.
   "The reason why bickering between Turkey and the EU stopped -- the EU
   has finally reached conclusions about how to deal with Turkey, and
   Erdogan realized he couldn't push the EU around," said political
   analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.
   Erdogan's re-election in June is offering a chance of a reset with
   Europe.

   "There will be low-tension policies on both sides," said international
   relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical
   University. "In the next five years, they [Europe] have to deal with
   Tayyip Erdogan, and Erdogan has to deal with them."
   "Turkish economic policies and strategies require more cooperation than
   confrontation in the long run," he added. "I consider this a new period
   with many lessons learned, with a more pragmatic and realistic foreign
   policy and economic policy orientation in the coming years."
   Prize of rebuilding Syria

   Turkey and the European Union have found common ground in opposing the
   U.S. withdrawal from the international agreement on Iran's nuclear
   program. Turkish companies, like their European counterparts, are
   facing American sanctions for trading with Iran.
   However, analysts suggests any hope by Ankara for a united stance
   against Washington is misplaced.
   "The way EU countries approach Iran sanctions is different. We already
   know big brands from Europe have left Iran," said former senior Turkish
   diplomat Aydin Selcen.
   Economic factors remain a vital driving force behind Turkey's
   rapprochement with Europe. Erdogan is committed to continuing a series
   of major mega-construction projects, which include one of the world's
   largest airports and a major canal running through Istanbul.
   "The big Turkish projects, if he [Erdogan] is to realize them -- he has
   to cooperate with international financial institutions and
   international money lenders," Bagci said. "War has destroyed Iraq and
   Syria. Now is the time for reconstruction, and Europe's support is
   needed for this."
   With Turkey bordering Syria and Iraq, analysts suggest Erdogan sees the
   reconstruction of its neighbors as offering an opportunity to
   revitalize the Turkish economy and, in particular, its ailing
   construction industry.

   Erdogan's planned summit later this year with France, Germany, and
   Russia reportedly is expected to focus on the task of rebuilding Syria.
   Human rights concerns
   Europe's ongoing concerns over Turkey's human rights record, though,
   could complicate rapprochement efforts. Under the EU's Copenhagen
   Criteria as a membership candidate, Turkey is compelled to observe
   fundamental human rights.
   "How are we [Ankara] going to appease Europe, which insists on strict
   compliance with the Copenhagen criteria?" asked Yesilada. "You cannot
   simply lock people up for social media postings that you don't like."
   Brussels repeatedly has criticized Ankara on human rights, particularly
   its lack of freedom of expression. In a move this month interpreted as
   a gesture to Europe, Erdogan ended two years of emergency rule,
   introduced after the 2016 failed coup.

   Critics dismissed the move, pointing out that new legislation passing
   through parliament includes many of the most severe elements of the
   emergency rule.
   "If Erdogan places more emphasis on better relations with the EU, that
   may lead to a more tolerant attitude toward dissidents and the
   opposition," Yesilada said. "But there are conflicting messages. The
   opposition fears a greater crackdown. I think a continuation of the
   crackdown is not feasible, given the economic situation and Turkey's
   tenuous position between West and East."

   Strained US ties
   Turkey's current strains with Washington also are giving further
   impetus to Ankara's courting of Europe.

   "We will hear more pro-European verbalism from the Turkish foreign desk
   officers," predicted Council of Europe member Ertugral Kurkcu of the
   Turkish HDP opposition. "We can see small steps on the migrant issues,
   the Cyprus issue."
   Migration remains a crucial card for dealing with the EU. Turkey is
   successfully controlling the flow of migrants into Europe as part of a
   two-year-old deal with Brussels. Turkish cooperation in monitoring
   returning European jihadis from Syria is seen as vital by Europe's
   security forces.
   Analysts are not predicting that rapprochement with Europe will offer
   any hope for revitalizing Turkey's EU membership bid. But they say the
   relationship between the two is likely to be built on transactional
   initiatives.