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US Lawmakers Still Negotiating Ukraine Aid Deal as Holidays Near

by Katherine Gypson

   Capitol Hill --

   The U.S. Congress is running out of time to pass a new aid package for
   Ukraine, as Senate lawmakers worked through the weekend to negotiate a
   deal for border security funding in return for Republican votes.

   The United States has already dedicated more than $100 billion to
   arming and supporting Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale
   invasion in February 2022, and President Joe Biden has asked Congress
   to approve another $60 billion. However, Republicans in Congress have
   become increasingly skeptical about the need to continue underwriting
   Ukraine's defense.

   In recent weeks, Republicans in the Senate have conditioned approval of
   any additional money for Ukraine on the simultaneous strengthening of
   immigration rules aimed at reducing the number of people entering the
   U.S. at its southern border and expelling some who are already in the
   country.

   A small group of lawmakers from the two parties, along with
   representatives from the Biden administration, are trying to hammer out
   an agreement that can gain enough support from both sides to protect it
   from that body's various legislative pitfalls.

   The U.S. Senate had been scheduled to hold its last day in session for
   this year last Thursday but adjusted the schedule to allow for time for
   further negotiations. The House of Representatives went out of session
   for the rest of the year but could be called back to vote if a deal is
   reached.

   As of Monday morning, lawmakers still had not agreed on legislation and
   a vote appeared increasingly unlikely.

   House wants more

   Even if an agreement passes in the Senate, it likely would not survive
   in the House, where Republicans hold a very narrow majority. A
   significant group of Republican House members opposes additional aid to
   Ukraine, and the party recently voted out a speaker who partnered with
   Democrats to pass legislation.

   House Speaker Mike Johnson, who took over after predecessor Kevin
   McCarthy was ousted, has said that more funding for the border is
   essential to any Ukrainian aid package; however, he also wants more
   conditions placed on the aid.

   "What the Biden administration seems to be asking for is billions of
   additional dollars with no appropriate oversight, no clear strategy to
   win, and none of the answers that I think the American people are
   owed," he said this week.

   EU aid blocked; Putin celebrates

   Worries about continued U.S. funding for Ukraine sharpened Friday after
   another key source of support was shut down. With the European Union
   considering a package of aid worth more than $50 billion, Hungarian
   Prime Minister Viktor Orban used his veto to scuttle the plan.

   Orban's vote came just a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin
   publicly celebrated the fact that Ukraine appears to be losing support
   in the West.

   "Ukraine today produces nearly nothing; they are trying to preserve
   something, but they don't produce practically anything themselves and
   bring everything in for free," he said, according to The Associated
   Press. "But the freebies may end at some point and apparently it's
   coming to an end little by little."

   While opponents of aid to Ukraine often denigrate aid packages as being
   a "blank check" handed over to the Ukrainian government, most of the
   aid is in the form of military hardware. The dollar figures in the aid
   packages mostly represent money spent in the U.S. to pay arms
   manufacturers for the equipment the U.S. ships to Ukraine.

   There is little doubt that a significant delay in additional funding
   from the U.S. would adversely impact Ukraine on the battlefield, but
   experts differed on the question of how long it would take before the
   effects become apparent.

   "My current understanding is that there's sufficient money remaining in
   the presidential drawdown authority for the Biden administration to
   continue sending arms to Ukraine for several more weeks, so into
   January," said Nicholas Lokker, a research associate in the Center for
   a New American Security's Transatlantic Security Program. "Once you
   start getting into January, the money is going to start running out."

   Lokker said that Ukraine is already experiencing shortages of artillery
   shells and air defense munitions, and that a cutoff or significant
   delay in aid from the U.S. would exacerbate those shortages.

   Giving Russia time

   Gian Gentile, a retired U.S. Army colonel and now a senior historian
   with the RAND Corporation, said that he thinks a delay in U.S. funding
   might take a little longer, perhaps months, to become apparent on the
   battlefield.

   Gentile, however, said a significant delay, or reduction in U.S.
   support, could have a major impact on the dynamics of the war.

   "If it's such an extended delay that Ukraine has to really pull back on
   the amount of artillery it's using and goes completely on the
   defensive, that gives Russia time and space," he told VOA. "If they're
   taking fewer casualties, that allows the Russians to spend more time on
   training, rebuilding and getting ready for another offensive."