China Strategic Competition in Technology: Analysis and Outlook

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** Machine translated from original Chinese
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Author/Source: Peking University Institute for International and 
Strategic Studies Research Group

Since the end of 2017, the united states has undergone a major shift 
in china policy, and trade frictions and technological competition 
have gradually become the focus of bilateral relations. china strives 
to strengthen its independent innovation capabilities, master key 
core technologies, and become an innovative country. the united 
states suppressed china on the grounds that "china forced us 
companies to transfer technology and stole us intellectual property 
rights". advanced technology has become the main stage for 
competition and competition between china and the united states.
 
First, the overall analysis of the comparison of technical forces 
between china and the united states.
 
 IN RECENT YEARS, CHINA'S OVERALL TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH HAS 
GRADUALLY INCREASED, BECOMING AN INFLUENTIAL SCIENTIFIC AND 
TECHNOLOGICAL POWER. HOWEVER, FROM A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL 
POWER TO A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL POWER, CHINA STILL HAS A LONG 
WAY TO GO. WHETHER FROM THE HORIZONTAL RANGE OR VERTICAL GAP, THE 
UNITED STATES' TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH IS STILL LEADING THE WORLD. 
SOME KEY BASIC INDICATORS REFLECT THE BASIC SITUATION OF THE 
COMPARISON OF TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED 
STATES: (1) KNOWLEDGE CREATION IS THE BASIC INDICATOR FOR MEASURING 
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH, WHICH IS INTUITIVELY REFLECTED 
IN THE NUMBER OF ARTICLES AND CITATIONS OF SCIENTIFIC AND 
TECHNOLOGICAL PAPERS. A NUMBER OF AUTHORITATIVE STATISTICS, INCLUDING 
THE NATURE INDEX, SHOW THAT IN RECENT YEARS, FROM THE NUMBER OF 
CONFERENCE PAPERS AND PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES, CHINA HAS 
CONTINUED TO GROW RAPIDLY, AND THE GAP WITH THE UNITED STATES HAS 
BEEN NARROWING, AND EVEN SURPASSED THE UNITED STATES IN SOME 
RANKINGS. HOWEVER, IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER AND ORIGINALITY OF HIGHLY 
CITED PAPERS, CHINA STILL LAGS BEHIND THE UNITED STATES BY A LARGE 
MARGIN. (2) FINANCIAL INPUT IS THE FOUNDATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL 
INNOVATION. IN TERMS OF TOTAL R&D EXPENDITURE, THE UNITED STATES HAS 
LONG BEEN THE WORLD'S FIRST. SINCE 2008, CHINA'S R&D EXPENDITURE HAS 
INCREASED RAPIDLY, WITH AN AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE MUCH HIGHER 
THAN THAT OF OTHER COUNTRIES, AND THERE IS A TREND OF CATCHING UP 
WITH OR EVEN SURPASSING THE UNITED STATES. CHINA'S RESEARCH AND 
DEVELOPMENT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY, BUT THERE IS STILL A 
CERTAIN GAP COMPARED WITH THE UNITED STATES. CHINA'S INVESTMENT IN 
BASIC RESEARCH IS STILL MUCH LOWER THAN THAT OF THE UNITED STATES. 
(III) THE CORE OF TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION LIES IN TALENTS, AND THE 
LEVEL OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND THE QUALITY OF THE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 
ENVIRONMENT ARE THE KEY TO TESTING WHETHER THE COUNTRY CAN ATTRACT 
AND RETAIN TALENTS. AT PRESENT, CHINA LEADS IN THE NUMBER OF R&D 
PERSONNEL AND POTENTIAL R&D PERSONNEL. IT IS EXPECTED THAT BY 2025, 
THE NUMBER OF STEM DOCTORAL GRADUATES IN CHINA WILL BE CLOSE TO TWICE 
THAT OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THE UNITED STATES HAS A 
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF QUALITY ADVANTAGE UNDER THE PREMISE OF 
ENSURING A CERTAIN QUANTITY. AMONG THE VARIOUS RANKINGS, U.S. HIGHER 
EDUCATION HAS AN OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE. DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE US 
GOVERNMENT BAN AND THE NEW CROWN EPIDEMIC, THE NUMBER OF 
INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS STUDYING IN THE UNITED STATES HAS GENERALLY 
DECLINED IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, BUT THE UNITED STATES IS STILL THE 
PREFERRED STUDY DESTINATION FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS. ITS 
RELATIVELY RELAXED AND INNOVATIVE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ENVIRONMENT IS 
ALSO FAVORED BY SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL TALENTS, AND A 
CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF OVERSEAS STUDENTS CHOOSE TO STAY IN THE UNITED 
STATES AFTER OBTAINING A DOCTORAL DEGREE IN STEM FROM A US 
UNIVERSITY. (4) PATENT APPLICATIONS AND TRANSFORMATIONS REFLECT THE 
SCALE OF NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL OUTPUT TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. CHINA HAS 
SURPASSED THE UNITED STATES IN THE NUMBER OF ANNUAL PATENT 
APPLICATIONS (INCLUDING "THE NUMBER OF PATENT APPLICATIONS BY 
APPLICANTS OF NATIONALITY" AND THE "NUMBER OF PCT PATENT 
APPLICATIONS" REFLECTING THE QUALITY OF PATENTS), AND THE GAP BETWEEN 
THE NUMBER OF PATENTS VALID AND THE UNITED STATES HAS GRADUALLY 
NARROWED. HOWEVER, THE PATENT TECHNOLOGY FIELD IN THE UNITED STATES 
IS MORE COMPREHENSIVELY DISTRIBUTED AND OF HIGH QUALITY, WHILE 
CHINA'S PATENT STRUCTURE IS RELATIVELY SINGLE AND OF LOW QUALITY. IN 
TERMS OF PATENT CONVERSION RATE AND CONVERSION EFFICIENCY, THERE IS 
STILL A SIGNIFICANT GAP BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES, BUT THE 
TREND OF GRADUALLY NARROWING IS GRADUALLY EMERGING. (5) THE DEGREE OF 
PARTICIPATION IN AND LEADING THE FORMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL 
STANDARDS IS THE EMBODIMENT OF THE NATIONAL LEVEL OF TECHNOLOGICAL 
INNOVATION AND THE COMPREHENSIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE INDUSTRY. THE 
UNITED STATES HAS LED THE FORMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL 
STANDARDS IN RECENT DECADES, AND HAS FORMED A SYSTEM ADVANTAGE IN THE 
MARKET AND HAS A GREAT RIGHT TO SPEAK. WITH DOMESTIC TECHNOLOGICAL 
PROGRESS AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, CHINA HAS ACCELERATED ITS 
PARTICIPATION IN THE FORMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS AND 
ACHIEVED "BREAKTHROUGHS AT POINTS" IN SOME INDUSTRIAL FIELDS. 
OVERALL, CHINA HAS MADE REVOLUTIONARY BREAKTHROUGHS IN SOME KEY 
INDICATORS, AND THE OVERALL GAP BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES 
HAS BEEN NARROWING, BUT THE UNITED STATES STILL MAINTAINS ITS OVERALL 
AND KEY ADVANTAGES. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE KEY INDICATORS 
CAN ONLY REFLECT THE GENERAL SITUATION OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES 
IN THE FIELD OF BASIC RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, 
AND CANNOT COMPREHENSIVELY AND ACCURATELY SHOW THE CURRENT SITUATION 
AND FUTURE OF THE COMPARISON OF TECHNICAL FORCES BETWEEN CHINA AND 
THE UNITED STATES. SINCE THE INCREASE OR DECREASE OF TECHNOLOGICAL 
STRENGTH IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ABILITY TO INNOVATE, AND 
INNOVATION HAS NON-LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS, ANY INDICATOR MAY DEVIATE 
IN THE PROCESS OF INNOVATION. THEREFORE, EVEN IF ALL INDICATORS ARE 
COMPARED AND ANALYZED, WE STILL CANNOT SIMPLY REGARD THEM AS A TRUE 
MANIFESTATION OF THE POWER OF TECHNOLOGY. NATIONAL INNOVATION IS A 
DYNAMIC SYSTEM ENGINEERING, INVOLVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALL LEVELS 
OF "GOVERNMENT, INDUSTRY, ACADEMIA, RESEARCH AND APPLICATION". IN THE 
MODERN COMPLEX INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM, INNOVATION IS OFTEN NOT COMPLETED 
BY A SINGLE SUBJECT, NOR CAN IT BE ACHIEVED IN A SINGLE TIME. IN 
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE INDICATORS, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN PRODUCERS 
AND USERS, STRATEGIC DECISIONS, ETC. HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON 
INNOVATION ABILITY AND TECHNICAL STRENGTH.
 
Information technology, artificial intelligence, and aerospace are 
the three representative areas of sino-us technology competition. 
these three areas are not only of great importance at the level of 
science and technology and economics, but also directly related to 
the interaction between china and the united states at the level of 
national security and strategy. the following is a focused analysis 
of each of these three areas.
 
Second, the field of information technology
 
(I) THE COMPARISON OF CHINA'S AND US TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH IN THE 
THREE MAJOR AREAS OF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS AND SPECIAL EQUIPMENT, 
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT, OPERATING SYSTEMS AND 
INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE IS THE KEY FOUNDATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
NEW GENERATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY, AND IT IS ALSO THE 
FOCUS OF SINO-US COMPETITION IN THE FIELD OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. 
AMONG THEM, INTEGRATED CIRCUITS PROVIDE THE HARDWARE BASIS FOR THE 
VAST MAJORITY OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT IS 
THE CORE MEDIUM OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND ONE OF THE MOST 
IMPORTANT APPLICATION AREAS OF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS; OPERATING SYSTEMS 
AND INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE ARE IMPORTANT SOFTWARE GUARANTEES FOR 
BUILDING VARIOUS TYPES OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND ITS INDUSTRIAL 
ECOLOGY. THE THREE MAJOR AREAS ARE CLOSELY CONNECTED AND INFLUENCE 
EACH OTHER. THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS 
OF GLOBAL HIGH DIVISION OF LABOR AND INTERDEPENDENCE. ALTHOUGH THE 
UNITED STATES RELIES ON FOREIGN COMPANIES IN WAFER MANUFACTURING AND 
OTHER ASPECTS, IT STILL HAS OVERALL TECHNICAL ADVANTAGES; THE U.S. 
GOVERNMENT IS ALSO TRYING TO STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE BY INCREASING 
INVESTMENT IN THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY. IN CONTRAST, CHINA'S 
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY IS IN A PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT, HAS 
BASICALLY ACHIEVED FULL COVERAGE OF THE PRODUCT FIELD, BUT THERE ARE 
ALSO MANY BUT NOT STRONG, THE PHENOMENON OF HOMOGENIZATION AND 
LOW-LEVEL REPEATED CONSTRUCTION IN THE INDUSTRIAL FIELD IS SERIOUS, 
AND THE DEPENDENCE ON THE IMPORT OF CORE EQUIPMENT AND COMPONENTS IS 
HIGH. IN THE FIELD OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION, THE GAP BETWEEN 
CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES IN TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH IS RELATIVELY 
SMALL. AMONG THEM, CHINA HAS CERTAIN PATENT ADVANTAGES IN THE FIFTH 
GENERATION OF MOBILE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (5G), AND HAS BEGUN TO 
LAY OUT AND EXPLORE THE NEXT GENERATION OF TECHNOLOGY; BUT IN RECENT 
YEARS, THE UNITED STATES HAS ALSO BEGUN TO CATCH UP BY INCREASING 
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT AND COOPERATING WITH ALLIES. AT THE SAME TIME, 
ALTHOUGH CHINESE ENTERPRISES HAVE THE TOP LEVEL IN THE DESIGN OF 
VARIOUS COMMUNICATION MODULES, THEY ARE STILL SUBJECT TO SOME KEY 
COMPONENTS SUCH AS RF FRONT-END CHIPS, AND THEIR INDEPENDENT 
CONTROLLABILITY NEEDS TO BE FURTHER IMPROVED. IN ALL KINDS OF 
OPERATING SYSTEMS, THE UNITED STATES HAS OBVIOUS ADVANTAGES AND 
MASTERS CORE TECHNOLOGIES SUCH AS THE KERNEL. IN CONTRAST, ALTHOUGH 
CHINA'S DOMESTIC INDEPENDENT OPERATING SYSTEM OCCUPIES A CERTAIN 
MARKET SHARE, IT LACKS CORE COMPETITIVENESS AS A WHOLE. U.S. 
COMPANIES ALSO MAINTAIN A LEADING POSITION IN MOST INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE
 CATEGORIES. CHINESE COMPANIES OCCUPY A CERTAIN DOMESTIC MARKET SHARE 
IN DATA-SENSITIVE SOFTWARE SUCH AS ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, BUT IT IS 
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE GLOBAL HIGH-END MARKET; IN 
TERMS OF R&D DESIGN AND GENERAL TOOL SOFTWARE (SUCH AS EDA SOFTWARE), 
WHICH ARE MORE CRITICAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, 
THERE IS STILL A BIG GAP BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES. 

(II) SECURITY ISSUES IN RECENT YEARS, THERE HAVE BEEN MORE AND MORE 
FRICTIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES OVER NETWORK AND DATA 
SECURITY, WHICH HAS ALSO MADE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ISSUES 
INCREASINGLY SECURE. IN THE FACE OF CYBER ATTACKS, BOTH CHINA AND THE 
UNITED STATES HAVE SUFFERED MANY LOSSES IN RECENT YEARS; BUT GIVEN 
THE POTENTIAL TECHNOLOGY BLOCKADE AND THE MATURITY OF THE SECURITY 
INDUSTRY, CHINA NEEDS TO MAKE MORE EFFORTS IN CYBER AND DATA SECURITY 
IN MOST CIVILIAN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE UNITED STATES HAS USED 
NETWORK AND DATA SECURITY AS AN EXCUSE TO SUPPRESS CHINESE COMPANIES 
SUCH AS HUAWEI AND TO EXAGGERATE THE CHINESE THREAT ON A GLOBAL 
SCALE, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL 
COOPERATION, AND THE TREND OF POLITICIZATION AND CAMPING HAS EMERGED. 
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP AND THE DOMESTIC 
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TWO COUNTRIES, SINO-US CONCERNS ABOUT 
NETWORK AND DATA SECURITY AND THE LACK OF MUTUAL TRUST WILL BE 
DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE POLITICAL COLOR OF 
TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY AS BOTH SIDES INCREASE 
INVESTMENT. 

(III) TRAINING AND COMPETITION IN THE TRAINING AND 
COMPETITION OF TECHNICAL TALENTS IN THE FIELD OF PERSONNEL TRAINING 
IN THE FIELDS OF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, OPERATING SYSTEMS, AND 
INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE, THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF HIGH-END TALENTS AND A 
SHORTAGE OF COMPOUND TALENTS IN CHINA. ALTHOUGH MANY UNIVERSITIES IN 
CHINA HAVE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED RELEVANT COLLEGES OR MAJORS, AND 
GOVERNMENTS AT ALL LEVELS HAVE ACTIVELY PROMOTED THE INTEGRATION OF 
INDUSTRY AND EDUCATION, THE GAP WITH THE UNITED STATES IN TERMS OF 
INDUSTRY-UNIVERSITY-RESEARCH COOPERATION, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, AND 
ENTREPRENEURIAL ECOLOGY IN RELATED FIELDS IS STILL LARGE. IIN TERMS 
OF BASIC RESEARCH ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, CHINESE UNIVERSITIES 
HAVE MADE GREAT PROGRESS IN RECENT YEARS, AND THE RELEVANT RANKINGS 
HAVE REPEATEDLY REACHED NEW HIGHS, BUT AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES STILL 
HAVE CERTAIN TALENT TRAINING ADVANTAGES IN SOME CUTTING-EDGE 
TECHNOLOGY FIELDS. 

(IV) COMPETITION IN TECHNICAL STANDARDS AND NORMS 
STANDARDS STANDARDS AND NORMS IN THE FIELD OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 
MAINLY REFER TO THE GUIDING STANDARDS AND NORMS FORMULATED BY 
RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS OR MECHANISMS THROUGH 
CONSULTATION. IN RECENT YEARS, ALTHOUGH CHINESE ENTERPRISES HAVE 
ACHIEVED CONCENTRATED BREAKTHROUGHS IN MORE IMPORTANT AND 
WIDE-RANGING AREAS SUCH AS 5G COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS, 
THEIR INTERNATIONAL VOICE IN TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCT STANDARDS IN MANY 
SUBDIVISIONS SUCH AS MEMORY AND VEHICLE-GRADE CHIPS IS STILL LIMITED. 
IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE LACK OF FIRST-MOVER ADVANTAGES, CHINA IS ALSO 
RELATIVELY LAGGING BEHIND THE UNITED STATES IN TERMS OF "SOFT 
STANDARDS" COMPOSED OF FACTORS SUCH AS CORE TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGES, 
MARKET PENETRATION AND USER ACCEPTANCE. (5) THE CURRENT SITUATION AND 
CHALLENGES OF "TECHNOLOGICAL DECOUPLING"
 
The "technology decoupling" between china and the united states has 
a huge impact on china's information technology industry. at present, 
as more and more chinese entities are subject to us sanctions and 
chinese companies such as huawei are frequently suppressed by the us 
in the international market, there has been a trend of "dual-track" 
in global information infrastructure and even technological 
development. the daily research and development and operation of 
sanctioned chinese enterprises and institutions have been restricted, 
and some students of sanctioned universities have difficulty studying 
in the united states. in this context, the normal business practices 
and cooperative exchanges between some unsanguated chinese entities 
and the united states and other countries have also been hindered. in 
contrast, the direct impact of "technology decoupling" on the us 
information technology industry at this stage is not obvious.
 
Third, the field of artificial intelligence
 
(i) Comparison of sino-us technological strength in the field of 
artificial intelligence, the scientific and technological strength of 
china and the united states is far ahead of other countries and 
regions in the world. the united states has the advantage of 
computing power and algorithms, and china benefits from the huge and 
diverse big data at home. at present, the strength of artificial 
intelligence in china and the united states can be measured from 
three aspects. in terms of basic scientific research, the number of 
published and cited artificial research papers in china and the 
united states is equal, but the united states has obvious advantages 
in original and pioneering research. in terms of industrial 
technology, the united states is the original party of core 
technologies such as artificial intelligence chips, algorithms, and 
machine learning, and is still significantly ahead of china, which is 
still making rapid progress. thanks to the open knowledge sharing of 
the scientific community, the gap between china and the united states 
in software, models, and algorithms is limited. in terms of applied 
technology, china and the united states have their own advantages. 
based on the advantages of massive data accumulation and user 
experience, china is ahead of the united states in the technology 
field of product-driven research and development (such as face 
recognition, speech recognition, computer vision, and image diagnosis 
technology). the united states has introduced machine learning 
technology in biosynthesis and drug research and development, and has 
made major breakthroughs. the united states is also leading the way 
in advancing the military application of artificial intelligence 
technology. 

(ii) Security issues in the context of intensified 
strategic competition among major powers, security issues in the 
field of artificial intelligence have become more and more prominent, 
and even have the tendency to be over-secured and politicized. at the 
national level, the military application of artificial intelligence 
is directly related to the country's defense security and military 
strength, and its commercial application is related to economic 
prosperity and social development. both the trump and biden 
administrations have elevated ai to the strategic height of national 
security and development, viewing china as an imminent threat to 
america's long-term technological superiority. at the domestic 
political level, as some institutions and personalities claim that 
the 2016 us election was interfered with by false information and 
intelligence activities of foreign forces, artificial intelligence 
was linked to the domestic political security of the united states 
for the first time, causing american social vigilance. the maturity 
and popularity of ai surveillance technology has also triggered 
criticism from the united states of china's human rights situation, 
privacy security, and "digital authoritarianism." these factors have 
exacerbated the ideological color of the competition for ai 
technology between china and the united states, and have also 
increased the political sensitivity of issues such as cybersecurity, 
data security and cross-border transmission, information 
dissemination and public opinion supervision. 

(iii) Technical talent 
training and competition the united states is the first choice for 
global artificial intelligence professionals to receive higher 
education and choose employment. in terms of talent education and 
training, american universities have established a full set of 
artificial intelligence professional talent systems and laboratories 
earlier. china has only begun to catch up in the past three years, 
but it is still far from it. the total number of ai practitioners in 
china is growing rapidly, but the number of high-end r&d talents is 
currently far less than that of the united states. china is a major 
source of undergraduate talent in the field of artificial 
intelligence, but it is not a popular place of employment. of china's 
top ai talents, 34 percent are employed domestically and about 56 
percent are employed in the united states. among the chinese who went 
to the united states to study artificial intelligence, 88% were 
employed in the united states after graduation, and only 10% returned 
to china for employment. although the overall exchange of scientific 
and technological talents between china and the united states has 
weakened due to the "politicization" of the trump administration, in 
the field of artificial intelligence, the academic community is still 
willing to openly share scientific results. in the field of 
artificial intelligence, there seems to be no obvious wave of chinese 
scientists returning home due to the deterioration of sino-us 
relations. 

(iv) Competition of technical standards and norms 
artificial intelligence has brought common governance challenges to 
all countries, but the international discussion around artificial 
intelligence technical standards and governance norms highlights the 
power game and political concept differences between major powers. 
while it is difficult to advance regulatory legislation in the united 
states, the united states actively participates in international 
discussions on technology governance and standards and strongly 
opposes any chinese proposals. the united states is also seeking to 
forge an ideological "democratic technology coalition" that works 
with so-called "like-minded" countries on regulations and standards 
to limit the use of ai technology in china and its international
 promotion. china is increasingly active in science and technology 
diplomacy and participates in international dialogues on ai ethics, 
governance and technical standards. however, due to the lack of 
overall coordination among the relevant ministries and commissions of 
the central government, there are inconsistencies in the voice and 
participation of chinese representatives on different international 
platforms. 

(v) the current situation and challenges of "technological 
decoupling".
 
The biden administration still regards artificial intelligence as 
one of the core technical areas of strategic competition with china, 
basically continuing the "decoupling" measures of the trump era. 
however, in addition to the us government's technology export 
controls, investment audits and other restrictive measures, the 
cooperation and exchanges between chinese and american enterprises 
and scientists in the field of artificial intelligence have not been 
interrupted. in march 2021, the u.s. national security council on 
artificial intelligence released its final report, recommending 
"targeted isolation" measures to safeguard u.s. national security, 
open source technology ecology, and intellectual property rights. 
optional measures are nothing more than more targeted export controls 
and investment reviews, reducing dependence on china's technology, 
and advancing international technical standards and norms that are 
consistent with u.s. values. this may represent the mainstream 
thinking of the current us government.
 
Fourth, the aerospace field
 
(I) Comparing the technical strength of China and the United States, 
the international aerospace pattern presents the characteristics of 
"one superpower and many strong". In the field of space 
transportation, manned spaceflight, satellite navigation and 
communications, deep space exploration, etc., the United States is 
absolutely leading, while China has an independent technology and 
equipment system, and europe and Russia are the second echelon. In 
the field of aviation, aero engines, avionics, aviation materials and 
other key links, the United States as a whole to maintain the lead, 
China is developing rapidly, with Russia, Britain, France as the 
second echelon. The interdependence between China and the United 
States in the aerospace field is relatively weak, and the competition 
between technology and security is gradually heating up, but the 
industrial competition relationship is highly asymmetrical. 

(II) Security Issues Space and space security is a complex of 
airspace 
security and space security. Both China and the United States have 
introduced "space strategies" that regard the two as a unified whole. 
Competition in space-air security focuses on two major areas: one is 
military aviation, with a focus on aero engines, avionics, missiles 
and missile defense, and hypersonic weapons; The second is space 
security, based on space transport and situational awareness 
capabilities, with anti-satellite capabilities as the hotspot. At 
present, the United States is far ahead in these two aspects, and 
China is developing rapidly in the field of military aviation, with 
Russia, Britain, and France as the second echelon; In the field of 
space security, China can form a "quasi-tripolar pattern" with the 
United States and Russia. Space security and nuclear security are 
closely linked, highly complex and sensitive. Under the circumstance 
that the United States has a clear superiority in air and space 
military strength, it has long pursued the doctrine of "space 
control", which makes China feel threatened. The United States has 
also accelerated its efforts to militarize outer space. The Trump 
administration officially established the Space Force and launched a 
new version of the Defense Space Strategy, which clearly regards 
China as an imaginary enemy in the field of space security. China 
actively promotes the defense capacity building of "air-space 
integration", strengthens air-space security cooperation with Russia, 
jointly proposes a code of conduct against the militarization of 
outer space, and frequently confronts the United States at UNITED 
Nations disarmament conferences. 

(III) Comparison between technical 
personnel training and R&D system In the long run, talent and R&D 
system are the basic factors that determine the competitiveness of 
the Aerospace field between China and the United States. From the 
perspective of the strength of talent training institutions, American 
universities occupy the forefront of astronomy, space science, 
geophysics, atmospheric sciences and other disciplines in the world, 
and China's top universities only reach the level of the second and 
third echelons. In the discipline of engineering, Chinese 
universities have certain advantages. However, in terms of capital 
investment and the number of professional and technical personnel, 
the United States is much higher than China. In terms of research and 
development, China takes the "national team" as the main force, and 
funds and technical resources are concentrated. In the United States, 
the government and private entities go hand in hand, through project 
procurement to achieve government-enterprise synergy, while 
competition between enterprises to provide innovation momentum, 
especially in recent years, SpaceX and other emerging companies as 
the leader. In the process of research and development, Since the 
1980s, China has learned from the Western scientific research 
management system and gradually explored a relatively mature 
"pre-research - trial production - mass production" mechanism, which 
is no longer fundamentally different from its American counterparts. 
Competition in technical standards and norms Both China and the 
United States are participants in the global commercial aerospace and 
civil aviation industries, but their market share and competitiveness 
are very different. In terms of commercial spaceflight, the United 
States commercial rocket launch capabilities are unique in the world, 
and GPS occupies more than 60% of the global satellite navigation 
market share, so it has the largest voice in these two industries. In 
the civil aviation industry standards, the United States has the 
world's largest number of aviation technology patents, although China 
has rapidly narrowed the gap with the United States, but the core 
patents are limited, the market conversion rate is not high, and in 
key areas such as civil aviation passenger aircraft engines still 
rely on imports. TThe United States also has great influence over the 
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which sets global 
civil aviation standards. However, in recent years, China's Beidou 
navigation system and civilian UAVs have made great progress, the 
international market share has increased rapidly, and the Chinese 
enterprise DJI has even become the world's leading civilian UAV 
manufacturer, which is expected to become a global industry rule 
shaper. (V) The Current Situation and Challenges of "Technological 
Decoupling" Due to the "Wolff Amendment" and the clampdown of the 
Wassenaar mechanism, aerospace has long been one of the high-tech 
fields with the weakest foundation and the lowest degree of 
interdependence in sino-US cooperation. In the field of aerospace 
technology and military aviation, China can independently develop a 
large and complete technical system under the condition of 
approaching "technical decoupling" from the United States, although 
there is a time lag and quality gap compared with the United States, 
but there is no "generation difference" in most technologies, and 
even in individual projects, it can be equal.
 
However, in the civil aviation industry, which relies on market 
players and obeys business logic, china's disadvantages are extremely 
obvious. china basically relies on the purchase of complete machines 
or core components from western countries such as the united states, 
which mainly produces peripheral parts, and due to the investment 
review of the united states, trade restrictions and china's own 
position in the industrial chain, it is difficult for chinese 
companies to obtain core technologies through acquisitions.
 
V. prospects for sino-us technological competition
 
(i) the trend of the balance of technological forces there are two 
types of representative views on the "competition" of technological 
forces between china and the united states. one category believes 
that china is about to become a global leader in various key 
technology areas. the other argues that china's scientific and 
technological prowess is (grossly) exaggerated, and that china's 
innovation environment is not yet sufficient to sustain progress. the 
analysis results of the above three areas show that china has 
developed rapidly in a number of sub-technical fields, striving to 
catch up with the world's advanced level and achieving a leading edge 
in some subdivisions. however, china's disadvantages in some segments 
are still very obvious, and there are technological gaps and "stuck 
necks". relatively speaking, the leading fields in the united states 
are more comprehensive and have deep technical accumulation. this 
article argues that this is basically a reflection of the overall 
trend of the balance of technological power between china and the 
united states. taking the united states as the benchmark, china has 
formed a basic situation of "following up" in most fields, "running 
together" in a few fields, and "leading" in a very small number of 
fields. in the process of long-term competition and evolution, the 
united states has developed a series of institutional arrangements 
and innovation systems. despite the uncertainties of the future, the 
united states will remain the world's number one scientific and 
technological power for some time to come. "crossing the river by 
feeling the united states" is an important experience of scientific 
and technological
innovation in china and even other countries in the world in the 
past few decades. once the goal of the united states is lost, whether 
china can continue to lead scientific and technological innovation in 
all aspects is the concern of some scholars in china's scientific 
community. this concern does not stem from the denial of the 
independent innovation ability of china's scientific and industrial 
circles, but from the long-term observation and rational 
understanding of the level of science and technology and innovation 
ability of the united states. in the future, china may narrow the 
generation gap with the united states in more technical fields and 
achieve "independent control" in some key technologies, but achieving 
comprehensive transcendence is a fairly long process and faces 
arduous challenges. in fact, the situation of "china surpassing the 
united states", "china continues to lag behind the united states", 
and "china and the united states go hand in hand" may exist in 
various (subdivided) fields at the same time. at present, china may 
be ahead of the united states mainly in the fields of communication 
technology, port machinery and rail transit; in the fields of 
biotechnology, agriculture and animal husbandry breeding, fine 
chemicals, industrial software, chip manufacturing, medical 
equipment, civil aero engines, etc., the gap between china and the 
united states is large; in emerging technologies such as 
brain-computer technology, quantum information technology, and 
artificial intelligence, many countries, including china and the 
united states, are mobilizing resources to compete for a leading 
edge. (ii) prospects for "technological decoupling" "sino-us 
relations have entered a stage of long-term competitive coexistence, 
with competition as the mainstay and cooperation as a supplement. in 
this context, in the future, the united states is very likely to 
adopt the strategy of "precision decoupling" and "precise linkage", 
that is, selecting specific strategic technology areas, enhancing the 
accuracy of decoupling and linkage, and striving to achieve a balance 
between national security, economic benefits and technological 
advantages. the basic idea of the us side is to resolutely decouple 
from some core technologies that china urgently needs but cannot 
achieve self-sufficiency; deregulation of export controls in 
technology areas of comparable level between the two countries is 
"even possible to turn chinese companies to domestic suppliers, 
counterproductively" because of the decoupling. the current us 
government has not yet fully determined the boundaries of 
"decoupling", but has formed a certain consensus on key technologies 
and products such as chips and their manufacturing equipment, 
artificial intelligence. the "linked" field is basically limited to 
low-tech and low-value-added industries. the u.s. strategy of 
"decoupling" will also be accompanied by the formation of the 
"democratic nations science and technology alliance", which will try 
to isolate china. this competition for political leadership, which is 
closely related to national strength and the international order, has 
greatly and profoundly affected the trend of the balance of 
technological power between china and the united states, greatly 
increasing the difficulty of china to purchase key products, obtain 
advanced technologies and introduce high-end talents from third 
countries. the impetus for technological decoupling has evolved from 
one-way to two-way. the starting points of china and the united 
states are different, but they have moved towards a common goal, 
which objectively promotes the trend of "two-way decoupling". whether 
it is at the technical or industrial level, both china and the united 
states are facing the losses caused by "decoupling", and at present, 
china's losses may be even greater.
 
Under the background of the spread of the "sense of technological 
crisis" in the us political circles and the strict implementation of 
technology export controls by the united states to china, china 
should strive to stabilize the areas of superiority with an open 
academic exchange mechanism, continuous investment in research and 
development, extensive international scientific and technological 
cooperation, solid construction of a talent system, effective 
transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and firm 
determination to innovate independently, so as to keep the gap in 
backward fields not further widened and narrowed as much as possible, 
and actively compete for a dominant position in the emerging fields 
with fierce competition. this can become a strategic line of thinking 
for china to deal with the "science and technology war" at present.
 
*** this article is a condensed version of the interim report of the 
Institute for International and Strategic Studies of Peking 
University", "research on sino-us economic and trade science and 
technology competition", and the annotations are omitted. this report 
was curated by wang jisi, dean of the institute of international and 
strategic studies of peking university and professor of the school of 
international relations, zhao jianwei, a doctoral student at the 
school of international relations of peking university, wrote the 
first and fifth sessions, hu ran, a doctoral student at the school of 
international relations of peking university, wrote the third 
section, and zhang chengyang and zhang yike, research assistants of 
the institute of international and strategic studies of peking 
university, wrote the fourth and second sessions respectively. 

The full text was co-authored by zhao jianwei.

***