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Another wave of rain to soak Australia's east
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Widespread rain and thunderstorms will spread over Australia's eastern
inland over the next few days, before drenching already sodden parts
of the NSW coast this weekend.
The atmosphere above eastern Australia is being loaded with moisture
this week thanks to the influence of a stubborn high pressure system
centred to the south of the country.
Over the next few days, a pool of cold upper-level air will pass over
Australia's southeast and cause some of the moisture in the atmosphere
to be converted into rain. If the atmosphere is like a sponge laden
with water, the passage of the cold upper-level air is like someone
squeezing the water out of the sponge.
The animation below shows these two key ingredients interacting over
the next few days. The blue and pink colours show precipitable water
in the atmosphere, which represents how much moisture is available to
convert to precipitation. The white lines show an upper-level low
passing over the southeast of Australia, which is associated with a
cold pool of air around 6 km above sea level.
_Video: Composite precipitable water and 500 hPa height contours
between Wednesday and Sunday this week, according to the ECMWF-HRES
model._
Showers and thunderstorms will start to develop over Australia's
eastern interior on Wednesday and become more widespread on Thursday,
affecting areas of western NSW and Qld, the northeast of SA and the
southern NT.
This rain and thunderstorm activity will then spread further east
across NSW, southern Qld and parts of Vic from Friday to Sunday, under
the influence of the upper-level low.
Large areas of western NSW and parts of northern Vic and southern Qld
could see 20 to 40 mm of rain from this system, while some areas in
western NSW should see 50 to 80 mm.
There is also potential for heavy rain and flooding in parts of
eastern NSW on the weekend as rainfall rates increase along the coast,
pouring more water into already saturated coastal catchments. At this
stage, the area most likely to see flooding rain on the weekend will
be the Illawarra and South Coast regions, where 2-day totals of 150 to
250 mm are possible, although this may change in the coming days.
The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting for
eastern Australia over the coming week, with most of this rain
expected to fall between now and Sunday.
_Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on
Tuesday, May 14, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model._
Severe weather and flood warnings will be issued closer to the weekend
if computer models are still indicating this flood risk later in the
week. Be sure to check the latest forecasts and warnings in your area
over the coming days for the most up-to-date information.
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