[HN Gopher] Don't Be Italy
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       Don't Be Italy
        
       Author : jefftk
       Score  : 66 points
       Date   : 2020-03-15 22:19 UTC (40 minutes ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (observablehq.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (observablehq.com)
        
       | crispyporkbites wrote:
       | After 21 days, what happens?
       | 
       | Do we lift the quarantine? Relax it a bit? Stay in quarantine
       | indefinitely?
       | 
       | What does the model look like for that? Without a full picture
       | the initial strategy could make things worse in the long run.
        
         | myko wrote:
         | After the first wave self quarantining should be able to start
         | ramping down
         | 
         | It just depends on the number of cases in your local area
        
           | crispyporkbites wrote:
           | This is calling for a full shutdown, not self quarantine.
           | We're talking checkpoints, military presence to ensure
           | compliance, protected supply chains and rationing.
           | 
           | The model has to account for a long term strategy (6-12
           | months) to keep the mortality rate down and the global
           | economy operating, or we open ourselves to even greater
           | risks.
        
         | LifeLiverTransp wrote:
         | We Pulse-Wide-Modulate a case rate that is just soo below what
         | the strained public health system can take, prioritize the most
         | important economic systems slowly back to life and hope that
         | the vaccazines come just in time to end this nightmare.
         | 
         | After that reforms. Lots of them.
        
         | iso947 wrote:
         | China may be able to do regular lockdowns. I can't see that
         | happening in the west. Lockdown needs to be a one time shot at
         | the right time, but getting the right time is painfully hard
         | when there is no way to know how many have the virus but not
         | yet testing positive or showing symptoms.
        
         | zozbot234 wrote:
         | > Relax it a bit?
         | 
         | Looks like it will work like that. This may lead to some
         | undetected transmission, but hopefully the amount of more
         | serious cases should be low enough that the healthcare system
         | will be able to cope. More severe measures can be restored
         | quickly in areas where community transmission is detected.
        
         | vvillena wrote:
         | The lockdown must be kept until the health system can cope with
         | everyone's health problems. Then, you slowly lift it to ensure
         | it doesn't saturate again, as that would mean a need for
         | another full lockdown.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mark_l_watson wrote:
       | I live in a small town in the mountains of Central Arizona. Since
       | we get 1.5 million tourists a year, I expect things here to be
       | similar to large cities in the US elsewhere.
       | 
       | Most friends in town have adopted a fairly complete social
       | distancing protocol in the last few days. This happened abruptly,
       | no one seemed to be doing it a week ago.
       | 
       | While social distancing helps, we should have had testing
       | infrastructure in place much sooner. I am happy to blame Trump,
       | and democratic and Republican Congress critters for that. A good
       | six minute interview:
       | https://twitter.com/azeem/status/1238734048018792449
        
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       (page generated 2020-03-15 23:00 UTC)