[HN Gopher] Don't Be Italy ___________________________________________________________________ Don't Be Italy Author : jefftk Score : 66 points Date : 2020-03-15 22:19 UTC (40 minutes ago) (HTM) web link (observablehq.com) (TXT) w3m dump (observablehq.com) | crispyporkbites wrote: | After 21 days, what happens? | | Do we lift the quarantine? Relax it a bit? Stay in quarantine | indefinitely? | | What does the model look like for that? Without a full picture | the initial strategy could make things worse in the long run. | myko wrote: | After the first wave self quarantining should be able to start | ramping down | | It just depends on the number of cases in your local area | crispyporkbites wrote: | This is calling for a full shutdown, not self quarantine. | We're talking checkpoints, military presence to ensure | compliance, protected supply chains and rationing. | | The model has to account for a long term strategy (6-12 | months) to keep the mortality rate down and the global | economy operating, or we open ourselves to even greater | risks. | LifeLiverTransp wrote: | We Pulse-Wide-Modulate a case rate that is just soo below what | the strained public health system can take, prioritize the most | important economic systems slowly back to life and hope that | the vaccazines come just in time to end this nightmare. | | After that reforms. Lots of them. | iso947 wrote: | China may be able to do regular lockdowns. I can't see that | happening in the west. Lockdown needs to be a one time shot at | the right time, but getting the right time is painfully hard | when there is no way to know how many have the virus but not | yet testing positive or showing symptoms. | zozbot234 wrote: | > Relax it a bit? | | Looks like it will work like that. This may lead to some | undetected transmission, but hopefully the amount of more | serious cases should be low enough that the healthcare system | will be able to cope. More severe measures can be restored | quickly in areas where community transmission is detected. | vvillena wrote: | The lockdown must be kept until the health system can cope with | everyone's health problems. Then, you slowly lift it to ensure | it doesn't saturate again, as that would mean a need for | another full lockdown. | [deleted] | mark_l_watson wrote: | I live in a small town in the mountains of Central Arizona. Since | we get 1.5 million tourists a year, I expect things here to be | similar to large cities in the US elsewhere. | | Most friends in town have adopted a fairly complete social | distancing protocol in the last few days. This happened abruptly, | no one seemed to be doing it a week ago. | | While social distancing helps, we should have had testing | infrastructure in place much sooner. I am happy to blame Trump, | and democratic and Republican Congress critters for that. A good | six minute interview: | https://twitter.com/azeem/status/1238734048018792449 ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2020-03-15 23:00 UTC)