[HN Gopher] "Out of the Crisis" Podcast
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"Out of the Crisis" Podcast
Author : eries
Score : 87 points
Date : 2020-04-22 19:25 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.startuplessonslearned.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.startuplessonslearned.com)
| [deleted]
| duxup wrote:
| Is there some reason to think Cuban has some useful thoughts
| here?
|
| He has done well for himself but he seems more than willing to
| make quips well outside of his knowledge base. Specifically I'm
| thinking of some off the cuff tweets regarding personal
| healthcare that seemed to be pretty far off base.
|
| Maybe that was a one off thing but I recall some others even
| regarding personal finance that seemed questionable.
| itronitron wrote:
| He was an executive producer for the movie 'The Road' (a 2009
| American post-apocalyptic survival film) so he at least has a
| passing interest in the topic.
| duxup wrote:
| I'm not sure what that ... should mean.
| bhupy wrote:
| > Is there some reason to think Cuban has some useful thoughts
| here?
|
| It seems to me that the most effective trait in a politician is
| strategic decision-making, capability of applying abstract
| thinking to different situations (which comes particularly
| handy during crises), and figuring out how to get the right
| people together and get them to cooperate.
|
| All of these also strike me as traits in executives and
| effective managers, which is likely why we tend to organically
| gravitate towards them in politics.
|
| Whether Cuban can be regarded as an effective executive is
| debatable, I have no opinion on that.
| vkou wrote:
| The problem is that it is hard to differentiate between lucky
| idiots who failed upwards, and actually capable executives,
| who know when to defer to expertise.
|
| Executives are judged on results - which are heavily
| influenced by circumstances that can be entirely outside the
| executive's control.
| adventured wrote:
| > Is there some reason to think Cuban has some useful thoughts
| here?
|
| Sure. He has invested into hundreds of businesses of every size
| spanning two decades. He has intimate experience with the
| operations of small and large size businesses of most every
| type, along with their operating requirements in all regards.
|
| A huge part of the recovery is getting small, medium, large
| businesses all back to functioning properly. From his perch, he
| sees a lot of what's going on at multiple levels. He is one of
| the couple hundred prominent business persons selected for
| Trump's recovery advisory council.
|
| He knows his stuff and he keeps close tabs on all of his
| investments (and the broader economic environment), which is
| remarkable given the expanded scope of his activities. I've
| done business with Mark in the past and can vouch for all of
| this personally. People often have wide-ranging responses to
| him based on his outsized personality, however he is very
| sharp, he's a smart guy and understands business at a high
| level of competency. People that dig on him by saying he's just
| a lucky dotcom billionaire, don't actually know him.
|
| edit: so let's hear your retort, downvote brigade.
|
| I'm probably one of the only people in this thread qualified to
| speak to the actual question the parent posed, as I have years
| of experience being in business with Cuban. I know how he
| operates and how he deals with businesses. Everybody else here
| is talking out of their ass.
| woobity wrote:
| Is there some reason to think that Altman has any useful
| insight here? Really.
|
| And people are calling out Cuban as being a one hit wonder.
| Altman doesn't even have that, Path was an abject failure. He's
| just been appointed to his roost by the SV overlords.
| qaq wrote:
| after SV can't take him seriously at all just see Russ Hanneman
| thephyber wrote:
| I've been reading his posts on LinkedIn. He seems to be
| advocating for businesses to treat their employees loyally now
| or fear the social backlash (reputation hit) when we come out
| of crisis.
|
| I have no idea about his previous tweets and I'm not sure I
| care.
| duxup wrote:
| I'm always wary of "treat your employees well" talk from big
| names as I think that is as much about self promotion as it
| is anything else.
|
| Much like the lifestyle type 'careers section' on a lot of
| company sites ;)
| muh_gradle wrote:
| Cuban is an ok guy, but the healthcare comments are a good
| example of him being plain wrong.
|
| https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2019/11/04/s...
|
| This is an example of him arguing with a MD. Cuban takes an
| issue with the doctor stating that consumer driven health care
| from non medical professionals is responsible for overuse of
| antibiotics. Cuban gets heated and dismisses the doctor as a
| quack when the doctor makes a completely legitimate point.
|
| Mark Cuban, like all successful people in life, is great at
| providing a loud opinion on everything and especially with
| areas that aren't his expertise.
| leereeves wrote:
| > consumer driven health care from non medical professionals
| is responsible for overuse of antibiotics
|
| That sounds like there are no medical professionals involved,
| but aren't medical professionals prescribing the antibiotics?
| untog wrote:
| I'm not an expert here but I believe the argument is that
| because it's consumer driven if a patient wants antibiotics
| then they can just shop around doctors until they find one
| willing to prescribe. Plus of course, drug manufacturers
| aggressively pitching their product to doctors.
| ccktlmazeltov wrote:
| I don't know about that particular story, but Mark really
| impressed me on shark tank when he detected some scamy shit
| about military grade encryption.
| duxup wrote:
| I don't even think that was the health related comment by
| Cuban I was thinking of... but man what a cluster of a scene
| that sounds like.
| cosmodisk wrote:
| Forget Cuban in here.Just a few hours ago I was talking with
| my sister about starting something similar. The product is
| cheap to manufacture, almost no regulations, no guarantees
| that it will work and the best part is that you can charge
| arbitrary amounts for it. The doctor's 'story' is a bit
| random.Not quite sure how things are done in the US, however
| in most parts of the world no self respecting doctor would
| prescribe antibiotics for viral infections. Here,in
| Britain,every GP practice is wallpapered with posters
| explaining this as well.
| tboyd47 wrote:
| He always does this on Shark Tank too. Guy has some kind of
| issue with doctors.
| SamReidHughes wrote:
| The "MD" was a guy on Shark Tank asking for an investment in
| his vitamin supplement company.
| koboll wrote:
| That doctor was selling a supplement. Supplement sales are
| largely scams, even the ones that are "developed by doctors".
|
| Also, its name is almost certainly designed to confuse
| consumers by sounding similar to "Z-Pak", aka azithromycin,
| which is an antibiotic.
|
| I'm not sure why we should expect doctors to be experts on
| the market forces behind antibiotic use, and there's plenty
| of reason to be skeptical of that specific doctor's motives.
| busymom0 wrote:
| Not sure about usefulness but it's worth mentioning that he has
| been hinting at running for President in a lot of his recent TV
| appearances.
| sixQuarks wrote:
| He'd be better than someone with Dementia. So at least he's
| got that going for him.
| darepublic wrote:
| The presence of Cuban helps me to feel more at ease with the
| state of the world.. if celebrities I recognize seem to be okay
| with what is happening what do I have to fear?
| seppin wrote:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect
|
| Same reason we ask Peter Thiel or Elon Musk their thoughts on
| AI or politics.
| vikramkr wrote:
| Ai sure, but I personally put as much stock into either of
| their opinions as I do Cubans, which is, about as much stock
| I'd give to the opinion of any other reasonably smart person.
| Nothing special, because it's out of their domain of
| expertise. Nobody is an expert on "politics" in general. Some
| people are experts in running campaigns. Some people are
| experts in Keynesian economic theory. Some people are experts
| in healthcare. Some are experts in getting legislation passed
| and in understanding the machinations of power in Congress.
| Some are good executives able to hold together a broad set of
| options and make good calls. Nobody is an expert in all
| aspects of "politics"
| nostromo wrote:
| Thiel and Musk have a track record of success though. Yes,
| they're lucky, but they also seem to be smart and capable.
|
| Cuban is a one-hit-wonder that sold a domain (and a dream) to
| Yahoo at the height of the dot com bubble.
|
| They don't seem particularly comparable.
|
| Edit: to respond to the comments below, no I'm not saying
| he's not successful, or that he's not smart. I'm only saying
| in tech and startup circles, he's no Thiel or Musk.
| aaron-lebo wrote:
| Both of those guys have a track record of plowing more
| money into money, with their own failures.
|
| It's just sports, but winning a title isn't nothing, and if
| you've followed his sports career, he was big into advanced
| stats decently early and the Mavs are as good as anyone at
| finding diamonds in the rough.
|
| There's obviously Dirk and Doncic, but they were also
| really close on getting Giannis. That shows some kind of
| insight. Not to mention, small ball dominates the league
| today, but the Don Nelson Mavs were doing that in 2003.
|
| I know it is just sports, but sports are some of the most
| competitive domains in the world, with the ability to
| innovate, which he has done. I don't think HN's preference
| for tech should just ignore what he's accomplished.
|
| Don't forget, PG and YC are only what they are because
| Viaweb was purchased in the same wave as Broadcast. Neither
| of those companies matter today.
| holler wrote:
| On what basis is he a one-hit-wonder? Just because his
| endeavors didn't progress to building rockets or big data
| ML for the gov, and instead to building a winning NBA team
| and one of most successful ongoing reality "startup" tv
| shows, he is somehow less-than?
| luckylion wrote:
| I have no clue about the NBA, but yeah, I'd say being a
| part of a reality tv show isn't in the same league as
| building rockets to go to Mars.
|
| The Kardashians are in reality tv shows. They are not
| building rockets.
| groby_b wrote:
| Let's just be clear that the reason SpaceX builds great
| rockets is... not exactly rooted in Musk. He was too busy
| sleeping on the Tesla production floor.
|
| If you want to look for the leaders there, Gwynne
| Shotwell & Tom Mueller is who should be on your radar.
| mistermann wrote:
| I generally have a positive opinion of Cuban, but it's not
| via that approach. Generally speaking, I've just liked most
| of what I've seen of him, and disliked very little. Plus, he
| seems willing to challenge the status quo, which I weight
| fairly heavily.
| crispyambulance wrote:
| > Is there some reason to think Cuban has some useful thoughts
| here?
|
| He's wetting his feet, it seems, for some political
| aspirations.
|
| I mean, hit TV show + billionaire + massive ego + mis-informed?
| opinion on everything ==> presidential material, right?
|
| Kind of tired of seeing his face and hearing his voice, but
| somehow I suspect we'll see more and more of it.
| aaron-lebo wrote:
| Cubes has always been outspoken.
|
| He's been almost as publicly known for 20 years and certainly
| winning the title in 2011 gave him more prestige.
|
| He'd make a decent candidate though. He's a Democrat (I guess
| he could run as a Republican, too) from the South with a
| bigger built-in fanbase than anyone else mentioned in this
| comment thread. He's run his organization for a long time
| with advanced stats, so he's no dinosaur. He's Jewish (if
| that matters, but it's nice having more diversity). Seemingly
| very healthy and relatively young, and no existing political
| career so he can cast himself as a ... maverick.
|
| He's made a number of missteps, but he's also pretty good at
| turning those to his advantage. He's a minor god here in
| Dallas. If we're in an era where popularity/money is what
| wins elections, I feel like you could do much worse than him,
| and I'd trust him way way more than Trump and feel like he'd
| have the potential for lots more interesting change than
| Biden.
| nostromo wrote:
| Howard Schultz and Mike Bloomberg fell for this trap too,
| and it didn't turn out well for them.
|
| It must be difficult to get honest advice as a billionaire,
| because these guys seem to be quite uninformed about how
| unpopular they actually turn out to be in the political
| arena.
| aaron-lebo wrote:
| I'm certain it is hard to get that advice, because it's
| pretty hard to get out of your own way, success certainly
| ain't going to make it easier.
|
| You're completely correct about both of those guys, but
| Bloomberg showed an incredibly lack of charisma in his
| run and Schultz is known, but I really think yall are
| underrating how popular Cuban is for common people.
|
| The ESPN demographic is a lot bigger than the HN techie
| demographic.
| kaesar14 wrote:
| Agreed, I don't think the average American knows who
| Schultz is, at least compared to Cuban
| dustingetz wrote:
| "the title"
|
| > On June 12, 2011, the Mavericks defeated the Heat to win
| the NBA Finals.
| papito wrote:
| Yes. Listen to his last interview on Recode Decode. He openly
| says he could run.
| creaghpatr wrote:
| Useful is debatable, but his comments are relevant since he's
| on the federal task force for reopening the economy.
| groby_b wrote:
| Isn't everybody and the kitchen sink on that task force?
|
| Ah, yes,here we go, 200+ people: https://www.axios.com/white-
| house-reopen-america-task-fore-8...
|
| (Which means it's a no-op. No group of 200 people is able to
| move at any kind of speed)
| busymom0 wrote:
| How is that "kitchen sink"?
|
| The list consists of CEOs of many companies from different
| states and senators. Since each state is impacted
| differently and some are in better/worse situation than
| others, every company's opinion matters. There are also
| CEOs/business people from different venues like
| restaurants, NBA, NFL, UFC, Disney and other parks, bars
| etc. I think 200 might be too low. 200 divided by 50 states
| is around 4 per state.
| Animats wrote:
| Is there a transcript?
| eries wrote:
| Not yet. Would you like one?
| jagiammona wrote:
| Yes, please! I often read podcast transcripts. Conversations
| with Tyler, 80,000 hours, and Steve Hsu's Manifold all have
| great transcripts and because of that, they are the only
| podcasts I keep up with.
| eries wrote:
| Produced this emergency podcast in short order with my friends at
| Breaker and LTSE. Happy to answer any questions or hear any
| feedback. Will have more episodes up soon
| _curious_ wrote:
| Hi Eric, what is an emergency podcast?
|
| And without knowing anything about the guests - what is say,
| Sam Altman, doing right now that is qualifies him in your view?
| In other words, why should someone listen to him?
| freshhawk wrote:
| What is an emergency podcast?
|
| A podcast made to monetize an emergency, clearly.
| [deleted]
| jimbob45 wrote:
| Is there a transcript?
| eries wrote:
| Working on it
| dmtroyer wrote:
| please go further in depth on particular issues!
| decasteve wrote:
| Listening to yesterday's episode with Jen and Raylene. Looking
| forward to the others as well. Thanks for this!
| aaavl2821 wrote:
| If you don't already plan to do so, you should interview bob
| Nelson at ARCH venture partners. They are a top biotech VC and
| one of the few VCs that has been active in antivirals the last
| few years (confounded Vir Biotech which is working on covid
| among other things)
|
| Bob has been on top of the crisis from the very beginning and
| has a lot of interesting insight
| eries wrote:
| Thank you for the suggestion
| pardner wrote:
| Listening to the Cuban interview right now. Thanks for
| providing this. Look forward to more.
| akeck wrote:
| Is the title a reference to Deming's book? ;-)
| Endlessly wrote:
| Since it's not 100% obvious - the poster "eries" is a popular
| author and popularized the idea of lean startups, which currently
| has (4,636) reviews on Amazon and a 4.5 star rating:
|
| https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous...
| cactus2093 wrote:
| An odd way to summarize a career, especially because amazon
| reviews are notoriously low quality and almost everything has
| 4-4.5 stars. It definitely under-sells his achievements.
| tozeur wrote:
| Eric is under appreciated in the same way Steve Blank is under
| appreciated. They were very early advocates of lean
| methodologies and customer development (now called finding
| "product market fit" by the cool kids and VCs who wanted to
| create their own term).
| kevinskii wrote:
| _" The first conversation is with investor and philanthropist Sam
| Altman. He has been one of the leading Silicon Valley figures
| helping the entire biotech industry make a complete pivot to
| working on solutions: vaccines, therapies, and eventually a
| cure."_
|
| Ok, no disrespect to Sam Altman, but _come on_.
| vikramkr wrote:
| Yeah, he's cool and his efforts admirable, but you can talk
| about people's accomplishments without essentially downplaying
| the role of others. Yes hes helping with covid, but he didn't
| go single handedly convince J&J to develop their vaccine
| platform that they developed years ago. He didn't convince
| gilead to develop remdesivir, something they developed years
| ago for hep c. He didn't convince moderna to work on rna
| vaccines. He didn't convince the fda to fast track diagnostics.
| And I love how in the list of things, a cure is treated as the
| ultimate goal, which vaccines and therapies are on the path to.
| Therapies are essentially cures if they work (since currently
| you either cure yourself or you die, this is not a chronic
| infection). And a vaccine is the real end goal since that stops
| the disease from spreading in the first place and normalizes
| society again by creating herd immunity etc. Prevention >
| treatment
| woobity wrote:
| It is hurtful to say the least. Some of the real heroes are
| the scientists doing lab work here. And they're not being
| paid millions to do it.
|
| Altman has zero training in immunology and is riding the
| coattails of their work with this kind of phony PR.
| woobity wrote:
| The entire biotech industry? Surely you kid.
|
| My wife works in biotech in SV and has never heard of him.
| dang wrote:
| Let's be a bit careful here. That quote doesn't imply that
| anyone has heard of SA, only that he has been helping.
| Sometimes people help behind the scenes. Similarly, the claim
| about the industry is simply that it has pivoted. I have zero
| idea if either claim is true, but let's at least not replace
| them with claims that no one made.
|
| This is in the HN guidelines btw: " _Please respond to the
| strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not
| a weaker one that 's easier to criticize. Assume good
| faith._" https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
| woobity wrote:
| The quote clearly claims he's helping the entire biotech
| industry, which is overstated to say the least.
|
| Also no idea why you aren't responding to the GP instead.
| My post is within the the guidelines, even if you choose to
| disagree with its point.
| IdoRA wrote:
| It's an unfairly inflated statement even limited to the scope
| of SV biotech, which is only a part of the entire industry.
| ballooney wrote:
| Two rats discuss marine engineering.
| dang wrote:
| Please don't post unsubstantive comments here.
| [deleted]
| puxud wrote:
| Is there some reason to think Altman has some useful thoughts
| here?
|
| He has done well for himself but he seems more than willing to
| make quips well outside of his knowledge base. Specifically I'm
| thinking of some off the cuff tweets regarding personal
| healthcare that seemed to be pretty far off base.
|
| Maybe that was a one off thing but I recall some others even
| regarding personal finance that seemed questionable.
| Kinnard wrote:
| Are you a bot?
| ardy42 wrote:
| Given the username and that it's a copy-paste of
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22949500, I'm guessing
| some form of deliberate mockery or harassment.
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