[HN Gopher] Analyzing pitches to find what gets VCs interested i...
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       Analyzing pitches to find what gets VCs interested in a meeting
        
       Author : ceonyc
       Score  : 198 points
       Date   : 2020-05-04 12:29 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.feedback.vc)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.feedback.vc)
        
       | mgamache wrote:
       | I am not sure what value this post is besides a sales pitch for
       | the poster. Don't mean to be overly critical, but really the
       | number one factor is always customers. Do you have any? Also, How
       | do you get more (cost of acquiring customers)? Market size? I
       | suppose that's in the "underlying economics" section, but that's
       | such a common question it should be addressed. VCs are looking
       | for 100x return. Can you meet in person (or Zoom these days) and
       | present yourself well? etc...
        
         | onion2k wrote:
         | _Don 't mean to be overly critical, but really the number one
         | factor is always customers. Do you have any?_
         | 
         | This is 100% true and 10,000% annoying. Effectively it blocks
         | anyone who has an idea for an idea for a business that needs
         | seed capital from competing unless they're already wealthy
         | (directly or able to raise funds from within their own network
         | of friends and family). 15 years ago seed capital was exactly
         | that - money that was available to fund a startup based on
         | little more than an idea and a persuasive team. It was
         | _massively_ high risk but that was kind of the point. The taste
         | for risk that VCs once had is gone. Today what people call seed
         | rounds are really Series A. You need to have already done the
         | high risk proof of concept work and actually have something on
         | the market before VCs will take your call.
         | 
         | That's entirely up to VCs of course. If they want to do that
         | they can. And no doubt they'll still make a lot of money. But
         | society as a whole is faced with dull ideas thought up by
         | middle class kids who want "innovative" ways to pay someone to
         | do their chores because of it, and that pisses me off a lot.
         | 
         | End Rant.
        
           | snowwrestler wrote:
           | Isn't this down to the rise of angel investors, though? I
           | feel like that concept has exploded in the last decade, and
           | established VC's have moved "up market" in response to it--
           | hence their first look is now more like a Series A than a
           | seed.
           | 
           | Has available seed capital declined overall or is it just
           | coming from different places now?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | GuiA wrote:
           | Well, that's what happens when everything "standardizes"
           | after the initial wave of disruption.
           | 
           | 15 years ago, there weren't any "programming bootcamps" or
           | "entrepreneurship workshops" or "become a UX ninja in 7 days
           | crash course" to the extent that there is today, Harvard MBAs
           | didn't give much of a crap about working in tech, computer
           | science students were there for the nerdy stuff, not because
           | they wanted to be the next Zuckerberg.
           | 
           | There just isn't much risk left in tech. The path is that now
           | you start a weird crypto startup (which aren't even that
           | weird anymore because there's dozens of them) while you're
           | comfy at Stanford, you hope to get a fat check before you
           | graduate, and if not you go work to Google. Or you quit
           | Google, start your company, get some investment because you
           | were at Google after all, and hopefully a few years later
           | your startup gets bought by Google.
           | 
           | Tech startups just aren't weird and new and unknown anymore,
           | as far as the money people are concerned. Does it fit their
           | idea of what a company on its way to a billion dollar
           | valuation looks like? If yes write a check, if not tell them
           | thank you and let the next team in.
        
           | mgamache wrote:
           | This is correct. Big capital ideas can only be funded by
           | wealthy people who have the ideas. Wealthy people by
           | definition, have an interest in perpetuating the system that
           | made them wealthy.
        
           | toohotatopic wrote:
           | >This is 100% true and 10,000% annoying. Effectively it
           | blocks anyone who has an idea for an idea for a business that
           | needs seed capital from competing unless they're already
           | wealthy
           | 
           | There's your startup. Get some money and invest it in all
           | those teams that need initial funding.
           | 
           | You may also want to establish an online forum for young
           | entrepreneurs and engineers to hang out and discuss news and
           | ideas so that they know about you and approach you once they
           | need the funding.
        
           | nwsm wrote:
           | > But society as a whole is faced with dull ideas thought up
           | by middle class kids who want "innovative" ways to pay
           | someone to do their chores because of it, and that pisses me
           | off a lot.
           | 
           | If true:
           | 
           | 1) VCs will stop making money, or there is an endless money
           | stream available to boring startups as long as the barrier to
           | entry is kept up.
           | 
           | 2) We will see stagnation in many industries but particularly
           | tech, which will only make it easier for actual innovation to
           | shine.
           | 
           | The endless money stream bit could be true, but if we accept
           | that it negates 2), we should just give up anyway (or shift
           | all focus to politics until it's solved).
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | I don't disagree, but 15 years ago it was much more expensive
           | to do a startup. This was before AWS and Rails was just
           | getting started, so just getting something up and visible was
           | a major technological effort. Now I can spend a day writing
           | some Terraform code and have an infinitely scalable, load-
           | balanced cluster up and running. A day later and I can have a
           | decent-looking basic CRUD app on the cluster.
           | 
           | Then I can spin a lot of the other work off to pay-as-you-go
           | SaaS tools. Payments, sales support, CRM, support, marketing,
           | analytics, feature flags, landing pages, A/B testing: all of
           | these are things I don't have to build any more. And now
           | thanks to the rise of things like Slack, Zoom, and Trello,
           | remote and/or part-time work is much more tenable, meaning we
           | don't need an office and full-time commitment to get going.
           | 
           | So yes, VCs are going to take minimum risk for maximum
           | return. But they always have. What's different now is that
           | you don't need to convince some rando that you need $250k in
           | seed money just to find out if your idea might work. If it
           | does, you'll at least be in a better negotiating position.
           | And maybe you won't need to seek investment at all.
        
             | est31 wrote:
             | > This was before AWS and Rails was just getting started,
             | so just getting something up and visible was a major
             | technological effort.
             | 
             | Before rails there was LAMP. That's what Facebook used.
             | Java servlets existed as well. And rented clouds existed
             | before AWS as well. Despite the hype for them on pages like
             | this, neither AWS nor Rails were really big disrupting
             | inventions. The market for both existed before them, and
             | will exist after they've fallen out of favour.
             | 
             | Where innovation happened is in the scaling domain.
             | Terraform, kubernetes, etc, as well as in the SaaS tools
             | you mentioned. But most of those things aren't needed for
             | earliest stage startups. You don't need to be super
             | scalable from day one. You can just run everything from one
             | very powerful box for a while.
             | 
             | Of course this all depends on what your application is. If
             | your product is a cloud based tool to post process movies,
             | it will be a different setting from a CRUD app to plan
             | events.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | In some sense, nothing has been really disruptive since
               | the web browser. But that doesn't matter because what I'm
               | talking about is reduced cost, reduced accidental
               | complexity, reduced systemic latency.
               | 
               | Having lived through it, it's just loads easier to get
               | something up and going these days. I ended up back in
               | some Java code again recently, and servlets are a) a
               | pain, and b) a general-purpose abstraction. They're
               | adequate for a lot of things, but not particularly great
               | at anything. Whereas these days people have had 15 years
               | to come up with special-purpose code to accelerate all
               | sorts of common activities. My point wasn't that AWS and
               | Rails were the only good things that happened in 15
               | years. It's that those, which now seem old and boring,
               | were near beginning of a whole wave of innovation aimed
               | at making it easy to have a consumer-grade user
               | experience up and running.
        
             | onion2k wrote:
             | The problem is that if your idea _isn 't_ a CRUD app then
             | finding funding to pay for the expenses is effectively
             | impossible outside of raising from friends and family. VC
             | funds (and _especially_ public money that VCs control)
             | should be invested in genuine innovation, not yet-another-
             | Uber-for-meal-kits.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | I agree that would be nice if it were true. But that's
               | manifestly not the business VCs are in. Their behavior is
               | a pretty predictable outcome of our society's current
               | ideology around capital.
               | 
               | That could change, of course. The pandemic is making it
               | clear how threadbare that ideology is, so perhaps we'll
               | return to valuing things beyond a high rate of
               | shareholder return.
        
             | mgamache wrote:
             | Sure executing some ideas are cheaper and infrastructure
             | can be purchased cheaply. But this covers a subset of all
             | startups. For example: Let's say you wanted to do a med-
             | tech startup. You'll have to work for at least two years
             | without pay to get a non-medical device product launched.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | Undoubtedly. And I'd bet that in those areas you can
               | still find seed money before you get customers. My point
               | wasn't, "All startups are easy now!"
               | 
               | It was that investors aren't going to pay for anything
               | they don't have to. If there's a sufficient stream of
               | web/mobile based startups coming to them who already have
               | some proof, they're going to be much less likely to fund
               | people who don't have that proof yet.
        
       | peter_d_sherman wrote:
       | Excerpt:
       | 
       | The Problem & Market Segment - Moderate to Strong Predictor
       | 
       | "This would have been a stronger predictor had it not been for a
       | few outliers at the top. Aside from a few companies who got a
       | high number of intros despite scoring relatively low here, this
       | was overall a very good predictor of who get intros. Picking the
       | right problem to work on seemed more important than having the
       | right solution by more than 2x.
       | 
       | So what was the most important factor?
       | 
       | Which area, if a VC only knew one thing about your company, was
       | the most predictive of enticing a VC to want to meet?
       | 
       | Some founders might be disappointed, because its that age old
       | question that they love to hate...
       | 
       |  _"How does it make money??"
       | 
       | Yes, the underlying economics of the business was the strongest
       | predictor of whether a VC wanted an intro over any other aspect
       | of the company. Founders who could clearly articulate an economic
       | opportunity fared really well with investor interest._"
       | 
       | Hmm, reminds me of some song lyrics...
       | 
       | "Come on, come on, listen to the money talk..."
       | 
       | -AC/DC "Money Talks"
       | 
       | Observation: Just as Scientists talk science, and Lawyers talk
       | law, Venture Capitalists speak "Venture Capitalese", aka "Money",
       | aka, "How much money could I the VC make with this?
       | 
       | That, and _give me compelling proof of what you 're saying in
       | under a minute..._"
       | 
       | Ideas, on the other hand, even great ones (to a VC point of
       | view!) are the proverbial "dime a dozen" (or less even! An idea
       | and fifty cents will get you a cup of coffee... Or, an idea and
       | five dollars will get you a cup of coffee if you go to
       | Starbucks...<g>)
        
       | lasky wrote:
       | stop worrying about VC's. trust me, it's a rabbit hole of pain
       | and perpetual disempowerment.
       | 
       | better to focus on figuring out what perspective you're currently
       | missing to how you can better help your customers THRIVE.
        
       | wyck wrote:
       | Analyzing common sense seems to be getting more popular.
        
       | arxpoetica wrote:
       | That site needs the base font to be bumped up by 400% or more.
        
       | JoeAltmaier wrote:
       | Love it - there's a startup in analyzing startup chances.
        
         | streetcat1 wrote:
         | To iterate is human, to recurse, divine.
        
       | bosswipe wrote:
       | How do they measure team quality? Is it just number of elite
       | school and FAANG alumni?
        
         | racecondition wrote:
         | I would imagine they know the difference between a team full of
         | "ideas" people who answer the question of "how will you solve
         | this problem" by saying "easy, we don't need to code, were
         | "business people" we will higher an offshore team in India for
         | cents on the dollar to code this for us overnight."
         | 
         | Where software development is just an example of one of the
         | skills you would need
         | 
         | Vs.
         | 
         | "We prototyped this ourselves based on our experience coding
         | with best in class teams for scalability, performance and
         | optimizing cost savings for scaling (lets say web platform?)
         | web platform, and we have a working MVP with some customers
         | onboarded and seem to be growing faster than we can handle due
         | to demand, and even though we are all pretty good at running
         | this platform ourselves, we know some key people we want to
         | hire to take over the scaling our existing backend devops teams
         | so we can focus on the UX/UI and feature development to respond
         | to specific asks from our current customers because we know
         | these will keep them on board with us vs our current
         | competitors."
         | 
         | In general, they are looking for people who are realistically
         | engaged with the resources it needs to implement the solution
         | to the problem where many people have the attitude of "I have
         | the idea, I will hire minions to do it for me, I just need
         | $5million from you to do that so I can hand out tshirts and
         | take credit for their work at conferences while my minions do
         | the work, duh".
         | 
         | You may think this does not happen. It happens quite alot....
        
       | graycat wrote:
       | After contacting many VCs and getting only meager responses, I
       | concluded much the same things as in the OP.
       | 
       | The VC Web sites were deceptive: They claimed interest in new,
       | advanced, powerful, for big markets, secret sauce, barriers to
       | entry, high margins, etc.
       | 
       | Nope. Much as in the OP, the main thing they want is just current
       | revenue, or at least proxies such as monthly unique users,
       | significant and growing very rapidly.
       | 
       | So, I switched projects to one I can do as a sole, solo founder
       | funded with just my checkbook.
       | 
       | Let's get a view of something VCs do not like but their Web sites
       | implied they would like:
       | 
       | To the users, my project is just a Web site. The project is a new
       | search engine for Internet content. The main _business idea_ ,
       | drawing in part from some old work at Battelle, is that quite
       | generally keywords are good for only about 1/3rd of content
       | search. My project is for the other 2/3rds. Keys in the work are
       | some new data and new ways to process that data. The new ways are
       | from narrow, advanced pure math and some original applied math I
       | derived (users will not be aware of anything mathematical) --
       | this use of math is the _intellectual property, trade secret,
       | secret sauce, technological advantage and barrier to entry_ ,
       | etc.
       | 
       | Status: Code for the project as envisioned, not just a _minimum
       | viable product_ , is ready for significant production, say, if
       | enough users like the site, a one person company with revenue of
       | $10 million a year, nearly all pre-tax earnings.
       | 
       | Team? Just me, and that's enough for now. Qualifications? Plenty
       | in computing from IBM's Watson lab and much more. For the math, I
       | hold a Ph.D. in applied math from a world class research
       | university -- one advisor had other students build on my research
       | and was later President at CMU.
       | 
       | Status: Code (.NET and SQL Server) for the project as envisioned,
       | not just a _minimum viable product_ , is ready for significant
       | production, say, a one person company with revenue of $10 million
       | a year, nearly all pre-tax earnings.
       | 
       | Lesson: My project is of zero interest to any well known VC. They
       | don't care about any such project. Period.
       | 
       | Before going live, I need to add data -- doing that.
       | 
       | Got delayed by some outside interruptions, e.g., moved.
       | 
       | Early on, but not really now, the work could have been helped by
       | some VC funding. Now, if the project gets even $1 million a year
       | in revenue, then I will not want or need VCs.
       | 
       | So, net, with VCs, when I would have wanted them, they didn't
       | want me; if I get to where they want me, then I won't want them.
       | 
       | There is some advice about VCs: Wait, that is, be successful
       | enough, for them to call you. If that time comes, I will just
       | check my old files and tell them the dates when I did contact
       | them and they were not interested.
       | 
       | I want to make two broad points:
       | 
       | First, the economic shutdown for the COVID-19 pandemic has
       | revealed that "50% of the US economy" (whatever the details on
       | that are) is "small business". Next, as I have looked around at
       | the families doing well, e.g., money enough for a 50' yacht, to
       | pay full costs at Harvard, they are nearly all from running a
       | family owned business and never got even 10 cents from a VC.
       | Okay, start and run such a business where computing, the
       | Internet, maybe some _secret sauce_ (now these three can be just
       | dirt cheap, less than some people spend in restaurants for a
       | year) help but without VC funding.
       | 
       | Point: To do well in the US, don't really need VCs; e.g., nearly
       | all the US families doing well are running family owned
       | businesses, all across the US and not just along the east and
       | west coasts, without any VC funding.
       | 
       | Second, there should be some big opportunities in applying what
       | is in the research libraries in math, science, and engineering
       | and/or doing and then applying more such research.
       | 
       | This fact has been well known for ~70 years by the US Department
       | of Defense, CIA, NSA, Department of Energy, NSF, NIH, CDC, NASA,
       | ONR, etc., well known and heavily exploited with huge benefits
       | for US national security, health, and economic prosperity. E.g.,
       | we got GPS from a project of the USAF. For some decades, there
       | were similar contributions from Bell Labs -- information theory
       | (e.g., upper bounds on data rates), error correcting codes, the
       | transistor, tiny solid state lasers lighting long haul optical
       | fibers, etc.
       | 
       | Typically these projects are submitted and approved just on
       | paper. The batting average is high: E.g., Keyhole (like Hubble
       | but before Hubble and aimed at the ground instead of the stars),
       | LIGO, the A-bomb, the H-bomb, the SR-71, navigation satellites
       | (first from the US Navy and later from the USAF), nuclear fission
       | power, the SSBNs, TCP/IP, NSF Net (now the Internet), DNA
       | sequencing (the key to detection of SARS-COV-2 and now maybe to a
       | fast vaccine), ..., all worked just as planned, essentially the
       | first time, on or close enough to on time and on budget. Batting
       | average! ROI!
       | 
       | Gee, if the USAF charged a penny for each use of GPS they would
       | have how much money?
       | 
       | If Bell Labs got a penny for each transistor they would have how
       | much money?
       | 
       | Point: The VCs just will not evaluate and fund projects presented
       | just on paper and, thus, are missing out on such developments.
       | 
       | Final Point: VCs make some money and do at times help some
       | projects, but their methods of working are quite narrow, and in
       | the US the paths for making money are in principle and at times
       | in practice much wider. There is a lot of opportunity doing
       | projects the VCs won't fund.
        
       | owens99 wrote:
       | Great work by Charlie on this.
       | 
       | As Charlie is an NYC VC, I assume most investors on this are from
       | NYC and there may be an Easy Coast bias in the data here. It's a
       | stereotype of East Coast VCs to overly focus on monetization
       | compared to West Coast.
        
       | rognjen wrote:
       | Beware of survivorship bias.
        
       | onebot wrote:
       | I would say that absolute best predictor of getting a meeting is
       | strong introductions. I hate to say this, but you'll have an
       | easier time with a strong network.
       | 
       | A trusted introduction can even overcome a bad deck in some
       | cases. But there should be no reason to have a bad deck now-a-
       | days as there is ample reference and knowledge share.
       | 
       | First-time founders: Please don't pay for access. Services like
       | this, in my opinion, are dubious at best. Work on building a
       | network, blogging, open source, meeting other founders, going to
       | VC events, tapping your alumni network, etc.
        
         | viklove wrote:
         | Best advice is just to be born wealthy so you can use your
         | parents "connections," and then go to a top-tier business
         | school to make more "connections." The startup scene is so
         | boring because there's no diversity of thought when everyone
         | comes from the same basic background.
        
           | danenania wrote:
           | In tech, my experience is that founders with a business
           | school background are a fairly small minority. The most
           | common ways to bootstrap connections are getting into an
           | accelerator or working at a VC-backed startup.
        
       | pge wrote:
       | I wouldn't trust these data, not because there is anything wrong
       | with the analysis but because the inputs are inaccurate. What VCs
       | say was the reason they were interested is not necessarily what
       | made them interested. It may be what they tell themselves or tell
       | you, but I think the decision criteria are rarely that objective
       | or explicit. Decisions are made, then back justified with a
       | plausible explanation.
        
         | derefr wrote:
         | Sure, but at the same time, the relationship between founders
         | and VCs isn't actually adversarial. VCs _want_ founders to know
         | how to pitch them. VCs are not "anti-inductive"+ -- they're not
         | shifting their requirements to become stranger and more complex
         | every time they're understood. Their needs are fairly stable.
         | The main reason that _most_ pitches don't succeed, is that most
         | founders are first-time founders, and therefore don't have
         | experience at pitching, and therefore make newbie mistakes.
         | 
         | + https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h24JGbmweNpWZfBkM/markets-
         | ar...
         | 
         | If you've ever heard publishers talk about the
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slush_pile submissions they
         | receive, it's much the same: they have clear and stable and
         | "knowable" expectations, but authors break them, because most
         | authors are new authors submitting their very first manuscript,
         | having never gone through this process before, never received
         | feedback before, and so never had any data with which to polish
         | their approach before.
         | 
         | (The _other_ main reason that VCs and publishers both receive
         | so many pitches they don't feel fit them, is that the markets
         | they operate in are heavily slanted in their favour, and so
         | they don't put much _work_ into making their requirements
         | _known_. They often don't put their expectations on their
         | websites or anything. This can be circumvented on the supply-
         | side, though, by just asking around to find out from other
         | submitters what a given buyer is looking for. Some enterprising
         | souls have even done the "lazy" supply-side's work for it, and
         | compiled indices of the requirements for the buyers in the
         | market.)
        
         | wmeredith wrote:
         | I came here to say this. User-reported data is unreliable at
         | best.
        
         | wpietri wrote:
         | 100% agreed. Most VC funds are necessarily good at very
         | specific skill: convincing people who control lots of money
         | that the VC is smarter and better than their competitors. The
         | easiest way to sell that is to truly believe it, and then
         | perform that belief convincingly. That's not something one
         | switches on and off, so their answers here are likely to be
         | skewed in the direction of things that make them look valuable.
         | 
         | Things like "team" and "gut check" are especially useful
         | answers for that, because a) it lets VCs sound like intuitive
         | geniuses who can't easily be replaced, and b) the I-know-it-
         | when-I-see-it nature of those lets VCs smuggle in all sorts of
         | irrational biases. As one well-known investor said, "There was
         | a guy once who we funded who was terrible. I said: 'How could
         | he be bad? He looks like Zuckerberg!'" Points for honesty, but
         | you can bet that wasn't the official reason they invested.
        
           | racecondition wrote:
           | In general I agree with you, but I would say that alot of VCs
           | either
           | 
           | 1) diversify their investments amongst many areas in tech (or
           | maybe some non tech things, not stereotyping all VCS but for
           | this example I'll say diversity of problems being solved
           | using technology/software etc) and thus see commonalities of
           | problems amongst teams in their experience despite whatever
           | the specific niche industry is. I think it is pretty
           | important to agree the cofounders are important. Specifically
           | I've heard from CEOs of startups I use to work for they are
           | really good at hunting out "weaknesses" in the bonds between
           | cofounders.
           | 
           | Basically, they don't want a good idea to fall apart because
           | two cofoudners fundamentally don't see eye to eye, which will
           | make it hard for any decisions they make (whether good or
           | bad) to come to fruition and indicates future struggles with
           | the company, in addition to weak leadership/unified approach
           | when hiring new people, who might be disoriented at
           | understanding the direction the company is going in.
           | 
           | 2) Focus on particular niches (a startup who focus
           | specifically on funding AI startups, for example) often they
           | will even fund competitors knowing that if one of them dies,
           | they are almost gauranteed to reep benefits from the
           | remaining on in the niche field. This also means they keep a
           | close track on the variations between two or more companies
           | approach in a specific industry and why one failed and the
           | other didn't.
           | 
           | Someone from Marc Andreessen's team recently published a blog
           | post going into great depth about 5 factors amongst ten or so
           | AI teams that indicated their levels of success in the field,
           | and most of the tilting factors are not what I would say is
           | common knowledge amongst AI startups.
           | 
           | They may have their biases, but they also have unique
           | experience in understanding or seeing repeated dynamics in
           | what could make a relationship (between cofounders) fail
           | (like seeing that one bad relationship where the couple can't
           | see it but it is so obvious to you because youve either now
           | been through it or seen it happen before, imagine this for
           | VCs looking at cofounders over and over again for ten
           | years...) and otherwise have lost lots of money over failed
           | business ideas, so I would say they are incentivized to be as
           | objective as possible with themselves, even if just selfishly
           | for the benefit of their own bank account.
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | If your point is, "Some VCs can be good at their jobs," I
             | definitely agree. My point is more that all VCs have a
             | strong incentive to _appear_ to be good at their jobs,
             | especially in ways that sound impressive and are hard to
             | verify.
        
             | dclusin wrote:
             | Really surprising your username wasn't taken!
        
           | tlb wrote:
           | "Looks like Zuck" meme debunked at
           | http://paulgraham.com/tricked.html
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | That's disappointing. I knew it was a joke, of course. But
             | I took it as an acknowledgement that he, like all of us,
             | has irrational biases that we discover over time. I'm sorry
             | to see that it was much less than that.
        
         | Zenst wrote:
         | The fact they attended the meeting already shows they are
         | interested. What maintained that interest to the end is as you
         | say a many forked answer and what they tell you and what they
         | are actually thinking will be different.
         | 
         | They may have your company in mind to work with another company
         | they know/own down the line, or the other way around and with
         | that, see which one works well and breakup the other. That they
         | won't outline at the start and yet would be a reason of
         | interest in buying.
        
         | btilly wrote:
         | The following passage addresses your concern.
         | 
         |  _We analyzed the results of our first 500 reviews and
         | calculated the correlations between high marks in categories
         | like team, problem area and business economics with the number
         | of requested intros from our reviewing VCs._
         | 
         | In other words the individual factors were graded, and the VC
         | chose whether or not to meet. They are correlating the ranking
         | of the components with the likelihood of asking for a meeting.
         | They are not relying on the VC explanation of why they asked to
         | meet.
         | 
         | I am curious who graded the proposals and how consistent that
         | was. It would also be nice to see what good vs bad looks like
         | in each category.
        
           | brlewis wrote:
           | Yes, that's an important distinction. At the same time, if
           | VCs graded individual factors, those grades could themselves
           | be rationalizations. For example, they want to meet a
           | founder, and give high marks to the categories they _think_
           | should be important, not the factor that actually influenced
           | them.
        
             | ceonyc wrote:
             | They actually weren't "grading" per say. They were
             | answering questions like "Have you seen anything else like
             | this?" and rating teams with multiple choice answers like
             | "This is one of the best teams I've seen." So, they _kind
             | of_ know how a company did, but it 's not like they were
             | looking at their own scores at the end.
        
         | doh wrote:
         | It reminds me the "wrist snap" practice in tennis. I don't
         | remember the exact details, but it started because a successful
         | tennis player said that's what he does. Shortly after,
         | thousands of trainers were teaching the method breaking wrist
         | of naive students. It took high speed camera to confirm that no
         | players use it [0].
         | 
         | The point is that people micro-tweak their behavior based on
         | simple reward mechanism. Most can't explain how they got there.
         | 
         | Top VCs are no different. They remind me chicken sexers (is
         | that even a word?), who have differentiate gender by looking at
         | their bottoms and quickly able to tell without ever being able
         | to explain how they know [1].
         | 
         | With this long dribble I want to encourage founders to develop
         | their own intuition. Create a pitch that makes sense to you and
         | then tweak based on feedback.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.tacticaltennis.com/tennis-mythbusters-wrist-
         | snap...
         | 
         | [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/the-incredible-intuition-
         | of-...
        
           | ceonyc wrote:
           | Tweak based on feedback is exactly right!
           | 
           | Only problem is that VCs normally don't give any!
        
             | doh wrote:
             | What I look for is behavior rather than verbal feedback. I
             | know where I have hit spots in the presentation. If they
             | don't react, then they are not as strong as I thought. If
             | they react negatively, I know I didn't explain them well.
             | 
             | But yes, most VCs will never bother follow-up.
        
         | tlb wrote:
         | Yes. It's like, if you analyzed reasons for romantic breakups,
         | you might conclude many were "It's not you, it's me". Which is
         | not "the reason" in the strict sense of a single condition
         | that, if you constructed a counterfactual scenario where it
         | wasn't true, the breakup wouldn't have happened.
        
         | burtonator wrote:
         | When interviewing people and giving feedback there's a non-
         | trivial percentage of people that react with hostility to even
         | the most constructive criticism.
         | 
         | We're actively recruiting now and it's amazing the amount of
         | hostility we receive sometime when someone is rejected.
         | 
         | There's a HIGH false negative rate on our end. Meaning, we're
         | going to screw up and walk away from candidates that are
         | amazing - but we're unable to realize it in time.
         | 
         | Yet, people will still react negatively.
         | 
         | If I was a VC I would probably quickly learn to just keep my
         | mouth shut.
        
       | code4tee wrote:
       | It's often been said that VCs invest in people not products and
       | there's certainly some truth to that.
       | 
       | That said, having a realistic plan on how your idea turns into a
       | sustainable business is certainly key too. That's even more
       | important with the economy we're heading into where startups that
       | are not financially stable are not long for this earth.
        
       | quezzle wrote:
       | I thought VCs were interested in companies with superstar teams
       | with a killer idea, an established and lucrative monetization
       | mechanism, an established defendable innovative product, in a
       | global market with hockey stock growth and for some reason still
       | willing to sign ridiculously unfavorable investment terms with no
       | downside or risk for the VC at a very low price, but at a very
       | high price to the next round of investors to drive up ponzi
       | scheme valuations. Oh and a CEO/founder who at first they love
       | but later can be shoved out by the board. Or have I been watching
       | too much Silicon Valley?
        
         | simonebrunozzi wrote:
         | > Or have I been watching too much Silicon Valley?
         | 
         | Too much, or not enough.
        
       | MattGaiser wrote:
       | Interesting. Investors are interested in making money on their
       | money.
        
       | gnicholas wrote:
       | Is "team" a measure of how good the team is in general, or how
       | well-suited they are to the area they've chosen to build a
       | startup in?
        
         | dclusin wrote:
         | Everyone always says team without elaborating on what that
         | means. It seems to me it's generally a shorthand for how many
         | of your founders/employees went to Harvard, Stanford, Yale,
         | etc. You can't say pedigree these days because that doesn't fit
         | with the current Bay Area politics.
        
       | floatingatoll wrote:
       | What are the demographics of the VCs whose responses are
       | summarized here? Were they from a wide array of cultures and
       | histories? Were they primarily rich white men?
       | 
       | Ethics in AI would ask us to consider the unconscious bias
       | introduced into the algorithm's outcomes. The same interest
       | applies to human-generated outcomes. Either way, the input is a
       | group of humans making subjective decisions, and since
       | unconscious bias survives summarization, it should be accounted
       | for.
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | There should not be a single factor, sometimes the team make up
       | becomes the multiplier factor. Say Jony Ives joins a team solving
       | a not so good problem.
        
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       (page generated 2020-05-04 23:01 UTC)