[HN Gopher] Apple's Mac Chip Switch Is Double Trouble for Intel
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       Apple's Mac Chip Switch Is Double Trouble for Intel
        
       Author : ksec
       Score  : 32 points
       Date   : 2020-06-12 21:40 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | MintelIE wrote:
       | Apple is "preparing to announce" the switch, but haven't we heard
       | these rumors for, well, years now? How much more reliable are
       | these rumors now compared to a couple years ago?
       | 
       | I'm a little surprised to see Bloomberg basically cribbing
       | MacRumors.
       | 
       | EDIT: Instantly downvoted? LOL
        
         | neximo64 wrote:
         | 'Rumors' like this don't have exact dates like June 22nd.
        
         | nicoburns wrote:
         | I always take these rumours with a pinch of salt. But I don't
         | think that there having been rumours for years discredits them.
         | There were apple tablet rumours for years too, which turned out
         | to be because they _were_ working on a tablet for about 10
         | years before they released it (they ended up releasing the
         | iPhone first as part of the same project, and I believe that
         | was 7 years in).
        
         | bsorbo wrote:
         | Some analysts (including Gurman) have pretty consistently
         | called out 2020 as "the" year for a couple years now:
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/apple-is-...
        
         | Bud wrote:
         | The rumors were valid a couple years ago, too; any change like
         | this would definitely take years of planning.
        
         | evv wrote:
         | You don't need to rely on the rumors. Anybody who has seen the
         | trend of Apple's hardware can see that they are moving in this
         | direction. The iPads have touted "desktop class" CPUs for
         | years.. Macs already have in-house supervisor chips, (the T2 in
         | the MacBook). Apple is a smart behemoth, an expert at vertical
         | integration, who has a lot to benefit by cutting out Intel.
         | They will certainly attempt it. It's only a question of how and
         | when.
        
       | albntomat0 wrote:
       | (both of these are genuine questions, not rhetorical ones)
       | 
       | 1. If x64 wasn't already dominant and had the same market share
       | as ARM, would you choose x64? Why?
       | 
       | 2. With x64's current dominance, would you buy a ARM system as
       | your primary one, knowing that you'll have significant
       | difficulties developing for the majority of current market share?
        
         | hidiegomariani wrote:
         | noob here my thought is 1. arm is more power efficient than
         | x64? 2. emulation + shift to remote development environments?
        
         | cglong wrote:
         | Someone described ARM Macs as targeting the modern developer,
         | i.e. one targeting mobile first. I wouldn't want a Mac
         | incapable of running Windows, but I don't think I fit this
         | demographic.
        
       | smabie wrote:
       | How is the developer ecosystem going to fair? I would imagine a
       | lot of tools don't work on ARM (or aren't regular tested on ARM).
       | Moreover, I feel like it's going to be a big problem that the
       | architecture you're deploying your code to is different than the
       | one you are developing on. Who knows what kind of crazy
       | performance differences/bugs there are between ARM and x86_64.
       | Also, what about the audio/video/modeling software? I can't
       | imagine that there's any support for ARM at the moment in that
       | space.
       | 
       | Also, is the Mac Pro going to switch to ARM? I'm not aware of an
       | ARM chip that can compete with the super highend Xeons in the
       | Pro. Having laptops run ARM and Pros run x86_64 doesn't seem like
       | the best idea (also sounds like a lot of work on Apple's part).
       | 
       | Of course, maybe this switch is going to create a high-end ARM
       | space, allowing ARM to make inroads into HEDT and the server
       | market.
       | 
       | A lot seems unclear at the moment, but one thing is clear (to me
       | atleast): there's going to be a huge fight over the next 10
       | years, x86_64 vs ARM. No one can possibly know who will win, but
       | it's exciting to the say the least. I think we've all been a
       | little tired of the x86_64 monoculture since the end of PPC.
        
         | wyldfire wrote:
         | > I would imagine a lot of tools don't work on ARM
         | 
         | A lot of open source code works well on ARM. But will we start
         | to see some newly-discovered-but-latent arch-specific bugs,
         | compiler bugs, undefined-behavior bugs-but-worked-on-x86_64
         | bugs? Yes, sure.
         | 
         | The cool thing is that Win/ARM and Linux on arm are still very
         | much the same OS as their x86_64 ports. Presumably macOS
         | is/will be the same way.
         | 
         | ARM gets less love precisely because they're not as popular for
         | developer native workstations. But I wouldn't be surprised if
         | that changes over the next decade.
        
         | dewey wrote:
         | Wouldn't it be similar to the PowerPC -> Intel transition or is
         | there something that makes this more complicated? That one
         | worked pretty well with the Rosetta emulation layer.
        
         | SahAssar wrote:
         | I think you are overestimating the change. IMO the OS changes
         | things a lot more than the processor architecture.
         | 
         | Almost nobody (except imgix and a few others) run macos on a
         | prod server, yet many devs run macos. For example: when they
         | run stuff via docker they run it via a VM (whether they know it
         | or not).
         | 
         | Any dev (again, except imgix and a few others) that actually
         | cares about server performance is already not running their
         | benchmarks/perftests/tests on a mac, so that should not make a
         | difference.
        
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       (page generated 2020-06-12 23:00 UTC)