[HN Gopher] A $500M call option on home gyms
___________________________________________________________________
A $500M call option on home gyms
Author : dshipper
Score : 49 points
Date : 2020-07-08 21:02 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (napkinmath.substack.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (napkinmath.substack.com)
| vikramkr wrote:
| It's a call option on increased home gyms _that use mirror._ I
| don 't think the correlation between increased home gyms and
| increased use of mirror is as strong as the article suggests
| because the driving force behind increased home gym use today is
| also driving a recession that might be enough to influence
| consumer behavior towards purchasing items for a home gym based
| on a value per dollar analysis. I don't know if an approximately
| $1500 + $500/yr magic mirror that could probably be replicated
| with a camera, a sensor, a small chip, and your existing TV fits
| well with that kind of purchase decision making.
| noelwelsh wrote:
| I can see this being a good business, for the reasons described
| in the article. What I don't like about the fitness industry is
| the concept they are all implicitly selling that you need to go
| through an expensive intermediary to access your body.
|
| If you want community and pre-crafted workouts, you could drop
| $20 month on Parkour Visions[1] for example, and help support a
| real community of people instead of some mega-corp. If you just
| want to workout at home you could drop the $1500 entry price for
| Mirror on a fantastic home setup. Or you could drop $50 on some
| gymnastic rings and head to /r/bodyweightfitness Or you could
| join a local club doing whatever floats your boat.
|
| [1]: https://parkourvisions.org/online-classes-1 Their online
| stuff is fairly good for what it is, and getting better. Their in
| person stuff is excellent and if you're in Seattle you should
| check it out once the pandemic is over.
| Jtsummers wrote:
| > Or you could drop $50 on some gymnastic rings and head to
| /r/bodyweightfitness
|
| I wish more people thought this way. I've seen a lot of little
| used home gyms over the years (weights, treadmills, stationary
| bike, etc.). All you really need is your body and a way to move
| it to get in really good shape, unless strength (weight set) is
| specifically your goal. I have a TRX suspension trainer (more
| expensive than the rings) from 12 years ago, I got it on the
| recommendation of my roommate (it works well if you don't have
| a reliable place to mount rings, like when living in an
| apartment). I still use it, it's 8' from my current position.
| Between that, a yoga mat, and running shoes I'm pretty much
| set. Spend some money on a personal trainer to work on your
| form and routine, and you're done other than making it a
| routine.
| layoutIfNeeded wrote:
| > a beautiful, giant iPad that hangs on your wall
|
| So... a Tv?
| dwighttk wrote:
| yeah, but vertical! And a built-in camera?
| mdlm wrote:
| The article misses the most obvious reason:
| insurance/diversification.
|
| If people no longer go to gyms, they don't need to buy lulu.
| shanecleveland wrote:
| I was getting up at 5am and going to the gym near my home at
| least three times each week for more than a year before the virus
| closed the gym. We have some basic equipment at home (exercise
| bands, jump ropes, etc.) and plenty of space. Exercising at home
| started out OK, but I have dwindled off to next to nothing. I
| greatly look forward to returning to the gym when it is safe to
| do so.
|
| I can see how a more extensive piece of equipment could lead to
| more consistency, but I am not willing to spend the money to find
| out. Companies that will rely largely on subscription services
| would need to get creative to keep me on board.
| delfinom wrote:
| Alot of what makes physical gyms work are just that, they are
| physical spaces that (a) you at minimum to traveling there out
| of routine (b) you just spent that time getting there, better
| work out instead of getting back on that tempting couch or bed
| 2 miles back at home ;)
|
| I've only ever seen working out at home long term for very
| disciplined people and it's not large group either.
| nkozyra wrote:
| Well also, critically, variety of exercise.
|
| I have a dip station and a bench and some dumbbells.
|
| You can get maybe 30-40 exercises out of that and bodyweight
| exercises. It gets old quick. I'd love to do cable stuff or
| step machine, etc.
| el_don_almighty wrote:
| DOA until someone opens up this platform for PORN.
| rboyd wrote:
| first thought: how did I not think of this? second thought:
| people have way too much money. check out the $20 mini bottle of
| glass cleaner you can buy on the accessories page
| https://www.mirror.co/accessories
| Reedx wrote:
| > Instead of looking at it that way, consider a different frame.
| Both companies target the same customer: affluent millennials who
| like to workout and stare at themselves in a mirror.
|
| > Kidding aside...
|
| Are they kidding though? I'd s/millennials/people, but otherwise
| I think there's some truth there. Because exercise instruction
| and motivation can be delivered via a TV or laptop.
| munk-a wrote:
| I really hope so - if they aren't they're in for a pretty harsh
| shock. The "lulz millennials so self-centered" meme is there
| for a reason and the usage of social media plays a major role
| in a lot of people's lives, but I disagree that millennials
| just like to stare in the mirror all the time - it's more about
| social connection. For some people this is a positive sharing
| experience with friends and families, for others it's a
| competitive arena where popularity is measured - I don't care
| to judge and think the motivation is beside the point. The
| actual crux of the matter is that these interactions that
| people pursue is with a self-selected cohort and I don't see
| mirror as being effective and letting you do yoga with your
| friends.
|
| On the contrary it's closer to e-health, you're connecting to a
| professional for some advice, but unlike e-health I imagine
| either that professional will be concurrently servicing lots of
| clients or that compensation for that professional will be dirt
| poor since 39$/mo isn't nearly enough for a personal trainer -
| the first one near me that I could find on the web runs about
| 150/hr so some serious corners will be getting cut unless
| Mirror is only usable for like... fifteen minutes a month? Or
| well, given that price difference I wouldn't be surprised if
| this was essentially an extremely expensive version of buying a
| projector and throwing Yoga w/ Adriene up on a wall.
| perardi wrote:
| Pure gut reaction based off my own "fitness journey", and my
| family's: these things will all make really lovely racks for
| drying that rug that you don't really want to put through the
| dryer because it would stress the motor.
|
| I kid...I don't kid. The mute treadmill. The silent exercise
| bike. All that unused exercise equipment, sitting in basements,
| forlorn. Everybody buys this stuff, assuming they are going to
| really get into it hard. And they won't. Most likely. Will a few
| people? Sure. Will the majority? Nah.
|
| I straight up don't kid: going to the gym is (was) somewhat akin
| to going to church for me. (Still not open in Toronto yet.) You
| can worship or work out at home, but there's something I just
| can't quantify or articulate about having a space to go to that
| is NOT your home where you push yourself physically, and are not
| distracted by trying to find something on Netflix, or the dog
| getting in the way of kettlebell swings.
|
| So I'm skeptical. If I were a shorting man, I'd short these
| companies, because eventually these gadgets will go the way of
| all those Bowflex past: extremely expensive dust magnets.
|
| (Or perhaps I'm a freak; I have worked remotely for 5 years, and
| am highly highly productive. Perhaps this is all a quirk of my
| psychology.)
| staycoolboy wrote:
| Bowflex is still alive and well, they haven't gone anywhere.
|
| There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions,
| that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit
| licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually
| showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The
| other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up
| every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again.
|
| It's a cash cow. The only downside to equipment is losing
| revenue to resale on Craigslist or Nextdoor.
| delfinom wrote:
| >There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym
| subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with
| a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid
| actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every
| month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges,
| showing up every now and then when he called them, and then
| forgot again.
|
| Basically how all gyms work, human laziness and human
| financial incompetence, though theres also a sprinkle of
| shady stall tactics by gyms for cancellation.
| est31 wrote:
| There is a great cgp grey video about this:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck
|
| TLDW: create areas with boundaries inside your home and make
| sure you follow these boundaries.
| azinman2 wrote:
| Fitness is on the rise generally (or at least pre-covid), and
| the trend is away from gyms. It's Barry's bootcamp, yoga
| classes, Pilates, spin, etc etc. In a covid world, the pelotons
| and mirrors make a lot of sense. The question is will it stick
| afterwards.
| perardi wrote:
| I will grant you there was a diversification in "wellness"
| fitness options. But I think my point still stands with yoga
| et al: you were still going somewhere else. I'm just quite
| biased people will end up working out at home.
|
| (I actually suspect the boutique fitness stuff may come out
| of this better than big ol' boxes full of treadmills like
| Planet Fitness. It's easier to social distance and sanitized
| with defined class times and appointment. One of the big
| chain gyms here is doing just that; you set a time to go for
| the gym, and then you get out so they can sanitize the
| equipment. Which is nice, but labor-intensive. I can't
| imagine $15/month warehouses full of weights maintaining
| that. https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard)
| matwood wrote:
| Possibly. The problem with the boutique fitness places is
| they make all the at home options look cheap.
| matwood wrote:
| I was a hardcore gym user pre-pandemic. My wife and I also did
| various gym classes together for 'dates'. Because of lack of
| time, I was already building a home weight gym, and the
| pandemic forced me finish. My wife wasn't a work at home type
| of person though. Then we got a Peloton.
|
| She rides it nearly every day, and has a group of people she
| rides with including IRL friends and people she met online. The
| difference of exercise equipment today vs. yesterday is the
| group and community aspect. I was skeptical, but I have added
| Peloton rides to my normal weight workouts. The instructors are
| good, and the connected aspect of the metrics (I'm numbers
| driven) pulls me along for more and harder workouts.
| guiambros wrote:
| To offer a different perspective: I used to hate exercising.
| I'm the type of person who paid a gym just because I loved the
| idea of being in shape, but had no interest in putting in the
| effort.
|
| With the obvious realization that I wasn't getting younger, I
| decided to get a Peloton last year, and immediately got hooked.
| I started riding 3-4 times/week, but since the lockdown started
| I created the habit of riding every single day; I'm now on my
| 16-week streak. But the surprising part is that I'm actually
| _enjoying_ it.
|
| So I'm the opposite spectrum - I'm long on these companies, and
| strong believe they'll continue to do well post-Covid. The
| model is brilliant: fixed cost, variable income, and control of
| the entire ecosystem -- hw + sw + content + ownership of the
| customer experience. Unless they screw up on execution, they
| have a very profitable path ahead.
|
| Just sad that Mirror was acquired by Lululemon, instead of
| Peloton; it would be a killer combination in terms of content +
| hardware. But it wouldn't surprise me if they come up with
| something similar in the future.
| tempestn wrote:
| I've been regularly working out at home for over 10 years now.
| For me being able to work out at home is considerably more
| effective than having to go someplace else; that added friction
| of driving somewhere, getting changed, etc., just makes it far
| more of a hassle compared to it being part of the start of my
| day at home.
|
| I do think it's important to have a decent space in your house
| to work out, which would certainly be an impediment to some.
| But in the past that space has been our living room (hardwood
| floors, fortunately) with the coffee table pushed up against
| the wall.
|
| Having a video workout program to follow can also be very
| helpful for motivation and continuity. What I can't understand
| is what value this Mirror adds. I regularly do BeachBody
| workout programs, which I watch on our TV. Used to be by buying
| their DVD sets; now it's through their streaming app. But
| that's cheaper than the mirror program, with more content, and
| doesn't require buying a $1500 mirror up front. Everyone
| already has a TV, and I don't believe the portrait orientation
| is even really a benefit.
|
| So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror.
| Darkphibre wrote:
| I think a big difference is the fact that it's, you know, a
| mirror: You can see your movements and the instructor's at
| the same time, and adjust your form to _mirror_ theirs.
|
| For me, going to the gym (technically Bar Method) was always
| done with an instructor, so that I could get their feedback
| on proper form and adjustments to my routine.
| perardi wrote:
| "So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on
| Mirror."
|
| Yeah, if my psychology was set up for it, I'd be doing those
| hill sprints in the park near me in addition to perfunctory
| pushups. But in either case: none of it involves spending
| $1500 on some magic mirror.
| ludamad wrote:
| Sunken cost psychology works in your favour when you commute to
| the gym, you want to justify that time. You're less likely to
| not doing anything once there. That, and everyone and
| everything there is gym
| perardi wrote:
| I love putting it in terms of sunk cost psychology. That's a
| great way to put it.
| simonebrunozzi wrote:
| I disagree with you on being skeptical - I think (my humble
| 0.02) that you are in the minority. People still buy these
| gadgets despite for the past 40 years or so they mostly kept
| collecting dust at home.
|
| But I agree on something else: I would also short these
| companies, for other reasons. I think there's no moat large
| enough to defend them in the future.
|
| Also, you say you're "highly highly productive". Hey man,
| please share more about it. I believe you, and I want to know
| more!
| fastball wrote:
| My reading of the GC was not that he doesn't think anyone
| will buy it, but that if they do they won't keep up their
| sub, which is kinda the whole point.
| perardi wrote:
| Yup. That's the short of it: they'll buy the bike, realize
| they're not using the bike, and not re-up their
| subscription.
| perardi wrote:
| Ah, if we're dropping bona fides--my fitness, pre-quarantine
| fattening: https://www.instagram.com/p/B6B6ceUB8he/
|
| And as for productivity, I'll just link to this, and see if
| anyone has snarky comments on how rapidly this project has
| moved or not: https://www.wolframalpha.com
| aczerepinski wrote:
| I hadn't heard of Mirror prior to this acquisition but I'm a big
| Peloton fan.
|
| I used to do a lot of YouTube fitness videos but the Peloton
| classes are better. Full Netflix quality HD, no preroll
| commercials, constant stream of new workouts that I don't have to
| search around for, etc.
|
| I assume Mirror offers something similar. If $40/month sounds
| expensive keep in mind many of us compare fitness expenses to the
| $300/month gym memberships we were paying for prior to Covid.
| WanderPanda wrote:
| Whaat kind of gym membership would that be? Here in Germany, I
| paid 20EUR (< $22) and felt it was too much. Some friends pay
| 15EUR a month. $300 is just wow
| winslow wrote:
| Elite gyms specifically like Equinox charge $300/month. Yes
| they are nicer gyms with more/better amenities such as a spa
| (massage), juice bar, etc. IMO it's mostly a status thing.
| amiga_500 wrote:
| $300 a month? Was it also a country club? That is so expensive.
| Sodman wrote:
| The kinds of people this luxury fitness equipment is
| targeting are the same folks that will go to luxury gyms,
| which generally are around that price point. The big one I'm
| aware of is https://www.equinox.com
|
| Sometimes you can justify the prices to people who would pay
| $30 per spin class and go to 10+ spin classes a month. They
| also tend to be located down town right next to big work hubs
| so they're easy to get to. Finally, they usually don't
| participate in the shady budget-gym "you can never cancel"
| dark patterns.
| patrickserrano wrote:
| Sounds like an Equinox membership.
|
| I'm in NYC and could never justify an Equinox membership, but
| $75-$125/mo is pretty standard if you want to join a gym with
| classes and not be tied to a single location.
|
| I had a New York Sports Club membership with access to all
| NYC locations and classes for ~$75/mo after a discount
| offered by my company. Being able to go meet a friend for a
| class at their location or be able to pick a gym near home or
| work was convenient.
| aczerepinski wrote:
| That's for 3 of us and yes it's sort of like a country club.
| Looks like a high end hotel, has towel service, quality kids
| supervision with their own workout classes, outdoor pool with
| water slides, etc.
|
| I'm referring to LifeTime but Equinox and others target this
| price point. It's very successful in my high cost of living
| area, and they've been expanding quickly. I hope they survive
| Covid though I'll admittedly have my membership on hold until
| a vaccine arrives.
| amiga_500 wrote:
| Okay I thought that was per person. $100 is still
| expensive, however it's less jarring.
|
| Basically this is another thing to take into account when
| considering moving to SV, I suspect.
| winslow wrote:
| Equinox does charge $300/month per person in the LA area.
| quineoa wrote:
| If the $300/mo surprises you, you might not the target audience
| for this.
|
| Most people that would buy this would also take a class at
| Flywheel/Barry's Bootcamp/Rumble/Soulcycle/F45 which come out
| to $25-$35 per class depending on package and region. If you
| want to work out 2x per week you're at $200-$300 per month. (I
| know folks in SF for example that take more than 2 classes per
| week and sometimes more than 2 classes in a single day.)
|
| Compared to that a peloton is really cheap. And you don't have
| to deal with going to the studio and finding a time slot that
| isn't booked and works with your schedule.
|
| I know quite a few coastal elites that definitely pay the
| premium for these group workout classes.
|
| Anecdotal, but _that_ is the target audience.
| grumple wrote:
| There's a lot of focus on price. $1500 isn't terribly much if
| you're building a home gym. A lower-end squat rack, bench,
| barbell, and weights set you back about that much. Another $500
| for high end adjustable dumbbells. Some other accessories to
| round it out as well. $1500 for an affluent class enthusiast? Not
| too bad, and I'd expect the price to come down over time.
|
| I'm more curious as to what this offers over watching a YouTube
| exercise class.
| ericmcer wrote:
| Being in shape long term will only happen if you find some joy in
| a form of exercise. I just don't see these fad things Peloton,
| Mirror, etc. bringing people anything beyond short term novelty.
| I would be really interested to see how many people who bought
| Peloton bikes in 2014 still ride them 2-3X a week now.
| Taylor_OD wrote:
| "Being in shape long term will only happen if you find some joy
| in a form of exercise." and find a diet that works for you.
| Eating is tied to more weight issues than a lack of exercise.
| jmdeon wrote:
| I love doing peloton classes via the screen thingy a la black
| mirror. I had access to one at my old apartment complex and did
| it 2-3 times a week for about a year. If I wasn't still moving
| around I'd invest in one for sure.
|
| I always chose the classes done by this one enigmatic
| instructor, but would branch out to others sometimes.
|
| You don't just get hooked on the exercise, you get hooked on
| the instructor and the social experience. I can definitely see
| this happening with mirror and lululemon. Sign me up.
| Alupis wrote:
| The best thing for fitness, particularly for those getting
| started, is to find a class with a regular schedule and that
| you must pay to take.
|
| Paying for something, and having an expected time to show up
| and participate is _powerful_.
|
| Some people have the drive and motivation to actually make
| themselves stick with an exercise plan. For the rest of us,
| having peers involved, and paying money is the equivalent
| motivation as a grade on an assignment in school... you do the
| assignment because of the grade, not because you just wanted
| to.
|
| Find a local FleetFeet or favorite exercise store and sign up
| for a summer run class for 4 weeks, and see your improvement
| and motivation increase.
| Angostura wrote:
| Perhaps. My way to fitness was Parkrun, a fantastic
| initiative that organises free 5km runs every Saturday in a
| local park. You just turn up and run. If you register and
| download a barcode, volunteers record your finish time each
| week and you get your time, and other statistics e-mailed to
| you.
|
| They are great community events, and the organisers are proud
| that average finish time is gradually creeping up as more
| slower runners (and walkers) get involved. I started several
| years ago aged 52 and am now coming in at about 26 minutes,
| 10 minutes faster than my first run. Obviously they aren't
| running at the moment, apart from New Zealand, but check-out
| your nearest one. www.parkrun.com
| Alupis wrote:
| Parkrun looks great, and a lot of fun.
|
| You didn't pay for it, but the motivation is the community
| in this case. You've probably met some people there, and
| everyone shares in the experience. That's powerful as well.
|
| Although, I still think paying for the classes to get
| started is a better way for most people. "Skin in the game"
| sort of thing, and can be a good mental excuse to leave the
| office and go to the class, instead of pushing it off to
| "tomorrow".
|
| > Obviously they aren't running at the moment
|
| That's sad... I can't see why people can't exercise with
| masks or whatever during Covid. A lot of people will lose
| all their progress and motivation.
| mumbisChungo wrote:
| I imagine that for some people it's about the added features
| and not about what pop culture thinks is in right now.
| danaur wrote:
| People who have done exercise would disagree, there are
| benefits from investing in exercise. I don't particularly like
| using a stair machine but I enjoy how I feel from using it and
| enjoy the benefits of being more fit.
| salimmadjd wrote:
| I agree. Fitness is not something you just buy, it's a
| lifestyle. You really need to find a way to enjoy it and look
| forward to your fitness session.
| tqi wrote:
| From what I've seen, Peloton and other high end fitness
| businesses very much understand this (Soul Cycle being the
| most clear example).
| Klathmon wrote:
| Don't discount the impact of gamification.
|
| My dumb monkey brain is a sucker for seeing numbers go up and
| getting awards, and comparing my improvement to friends and
| family.
|
| The only thing that's ever gotten me to stick with a workout
| routine is finding one that my smartwatch can completely track
| and show my progress using some algorithm that distills it down
| to a "score". It instantly turns something that I hated doing
| into something where I'm reading up on how to get better.
| mooman219 wrote:
| +1 for gamification. I just got the Ring Fit Trainer for the
| Nintendo Switch and it has been pretty enjoyable.
| delfinom wrote:
| I got a smartwatch to track my progress. I was obessed with
| it for a about month. Then I got bored of it, mostly because
| I do have a really good sense of my activity that it gets
| redundant when you check the watch knowing what it'll say
| already.
|
| Call me when the watch comes with a buttprobe to actually
| track realtime caloric burn, that'll be interesting.
| bosie wrote:
| Which smartwatch gives you such a score? In your experience,
| how well does the score represent your actual progress?
| Angostura wrote:
| The Strava app is free and pretty good. You can join
| virtual clubs with your friends. We have one running at
| work during lockdown.
| Klathmon wrote:
| I have an Android Wear watch, and there are a number of
| apps available for it.
|
| The score is hit or miss, but it does show trends over time
| pretty well.
| troydavis wrote:
| > I would be really interested to see how many people who
| bought Peloton bikes in 2014 still ride them 2-3X a week now.
|
| Peloton published the stats of their purchase cohorts in their
| S-1 (and probably in subsequent reports, but I haven't read
| them). At least among those who maintain a $39/month Peloton
| subscription ("Connected Fitness Subscribers"), the frequency
| of use increases over time. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/e
| dgar/data/1639825/000119312519...:
|
| > We have consistently seen workouts increase over time. On
| average, our Connected Fitness Subscribers completed 7.5, 8.4,
| and 11.5 workouts per month in fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019,
| respectively. Usage drives value and loyalty, which is
| evidenced by our exceptional weighted-average 12-month
| Connected Fitness Subscriber retention rate of 95% across all
| fiscal year cohorts since fiscal 2016.
|
| ...
|
| > Average Monthly Workouts per Connected Fitness Subscriber are
| higher for our most recent cohorts and engagement for each
| cohort has been consistent or improved over time.
|
| S-1 page 63 has more. Also, at least as of the S-1, churn
| (called "Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn") from
| those cohorts was also very low - roughly 0.5-0.9% per quarter
| or ~3%/year. That means Connected Fitness Subscribers includes
| the vast majority of those who purchased a bike.
|
| In 2019 when the S-1 was filed, I put a few more details here:
| https://twitter.com/troyd/status/1167582830425075712
| orky56 wrote:
| Early adopters are more likely to increase their usage as
| they're transitioning more of their fitness time to Peloton.
| The mainstream cohorts who rely on Peloton to increase their
| fitness may not have as much Peloton usage.
| troydavis wrote:
| It's totally possible, but so is any other change in
| behavior that we want to speculate about :-) For example,
| the pandemic may make people more likely to cancel a
| $39/month payment... or it may make people more reliant on
| Peloton because other exercise methods are now riskier.
| We're all guessing at this point.
| xnx wrote:
| As exercise equipment: Meh. As large form-factor indoor
| advertising: Interesting.
|
| Some article pointed out that the mirror has some potential to be
| a useful form factor for information display alongside phone,
| laptop, tablet, watch, book reader, and Alexa/Google Home
| display.
| fastball wrote:
| Seems like it could be lucrative if the person buying them was
| Google. Not really if its lululemon.
| cosmodisk wrote:
| "Mirror sells you the equivalent of a beautiful, giant iPad that
| hangs on your wall for $1,495. Then, if you pay a $39 monthly
| subscription, you can use a mobile app to turn the Mirror into a
| fitness class". Hold on a second. i do have this 50" thing in my
| living room. It shows all sorts of videos, even exercises some
| people do.. Emm.Oh,yes, it's call TV! This is like Paleton's
| cousin.
| xiaosun wrote:
| This is called an acquisition, not a call option.
| User23 wrote:
| Yeah this is obnoxious. I was hoping to be told about a deep
| out of the money contract I missed out on buying, not some yoga
| pants company's PR firm's drivel. This is one of the rare
| examples of a HN headline that is worse than the average
| Zerohedge one.
| klipt wrote:
| > Mirror sells you the equivalent of a beautiful, giant iPad that
| hangs on your wall for $1,495. Then, if you pay a $39 monthly
| subscription, you can use a mobile app to turn the Mirror into a
| fitness class. Both on-demand and live classes are available for
| everything from yoga to boxing.
|
| Or you can just watch fitness classes on YouTube for free?
|
| Maybe I just don't have enough unwanted money to see the appeal
| of this.
| jariel wrote:
| You could say the same for Peleton, but lo and behold, people
| truly love it.
|
| The totality of the experience matters, we know that by now.
| The sum of all the differences is a big thing. Maybe literally
| 'seeing yourself' is a big diffentiator.
|
| That said - my scepticism is over the price tag of something
| that has yet to be proven.
|
| CEO's get it in their heads all the time that they think they
| know what the market is doing, and they just snap something up
| for a lot of money without considering a lot of the details.
|
| I worked for 'Big Corp' that almost bought a Wifi music player
| - literally nobody on the team thought to _actually try the
| music player_. And why would they? Actually _using_ the product
| isn 't anyone's job! It looked good on paper but it was a
| terrible product.
| nordsieck wrote:
| > You could say the same for Peleton, but lo and behold,
| people truly love it.
|
| I think there's real difference, though.
|
| Peleton is a true integrated solution, where the bike and
| screen are synchronized to the workout program.
|
| Most people already have a tv in their living room. I just
| don't see that there's much difference between Mirror and
| that.
|
| Sure - there's some opportunity for 2 way communication, but
| that's never going to be the way most interaction is going to
| happen. There's plenty of personal trainers all over the
| place for people who want that sort of thing, and most people
| find a true in-person experience much more fulfilling.
| arduinomancer wrote:
| I can see a bike or a treadmill having a lot of value for a
| similar price but here you pay $1495 and you're still just
| doing everything yourself.
| tqi wrote:
| Sure, and instead of Dropbox I could get an FTP account, mount
| it locally with curlftpfs, and then use SVN or CVS on the
| mounted filesystem [1]. :-D
|
| All kidding aside, I think there is value in convenience.
| Whether or not that value is >= $1500 + $40/mo is a personal
| question (not saying that such a person exists in any
| meaningful quantity). I'm not really interested in this product
| either, but I'm also sure there are a lot of things I spend
| money on that others would find incomprehensible.
|
| [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863
| napier wrote:
| The voice came from an oblong metal plaque like a dulled mirror
| which formed part of the surface of the right-hand wall. . . The
| instrument (the telescreen, it was called) could be dimmed, but
| there was no way of shutting it off completely.
|
| The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously. Any sound
| that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would
| be picked up by it; moreover, so long as he remained within the
| field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be
| seen as well as heard. There was of course no way of knowing
| whether you were being watched at any given moment.
| Jtsummers wrote:
| When I first saw Mirror advertised this was my first thought.
| doc_gunthrop wrote:
| Without citation this comment is essentially plagiarism.
|
| To the unfamiliar, it's from 1984, by George Orwell
| (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four)
| simonebrunozzi wrote:
| You absolutely nailed the best possible quote about this.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. The
| relevant part of the mirror in the quote you're giving from
| 1984 is that it was compulsory. This product is optional.
|
| That means I think they're not really comparable.
|
| You can make anything sound dystopian if it were compulsory.
| When it's a tool people choose to use it can be empowering and
| help people achieve the goals they had before they chose the
| product.
|
| I'm not sure this is really an intelligent or meaningful
| criticism. I think it's just snark - something said for the
| sake of it that sounds witty but doesn't really stand up if you
| think about it.
| cosmodisk wrote:
| A mirror showing some training videos may not sound much but
| we already live in this dystopian world: Google knows all my
| secrets, I rely on Amazon in so many ways, it's ever hard to
| comprehend. People have TVs and Alexas that do actively
| listen to their conversations,not always when they'd like to.
| We literally sleep walked into this whole thing already.
| kadoban wrote:
| I think it's less snark for me. There is a somewhat realistic
| concern that we're buying our own surveilance state one piece
| at a time.
|
| These corporations are very powerful, and we're inviting
| their surveilance tools into our homes without IMO a great
| guarantee of what's done with our data. They also tend to
| have a pretty cushy relationship with governments. And even
| where they don't, governments are able and usually willing to
| compromise these devices for their own purposes. That exists
| on a specrum from law enforcement asking for data, to the NSA
| and similar using security vulernabilities they buy or
| develop.
|
| This device in particular is probably not a big deal for the
| above, but it's one more for the pile.
| cosmodisk wrote:
| All they needed to do is to call it Black Mirror. 1984 quote is
| spot on ,by the way.
| __lazybyte wrote:
| How Orwellian could it get?
| ebg13 wrote:
| > _Mirror sells you the equivalent of a beautiful, giant iPad
| that hangs on your wall for $1,495. Then, if you pay a $39
| monthly subscription, you can use a mobile app to turn the Mirror
| into a fitness class._
|
| Ok, so...what if you _don't_ pay a $39/month subscription fee?
| Does this $1850[0] mirror do anything standalone? I think the
| answer is either no or yes but not much, but I can't tell.
|
| [0] - Buying the $1500 mirror requires you to also buy the $100
| "starter pack" and shipping is nominally another $250 without the
| promotion. Though for all I know the promotion is just always
| happening.
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