[HN Gopher] Who still needs the office? U.S. companies start cut...
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       Who still needs the office? U.S. companies start cutting space
        
       Author : onetimemanytime
       Score  : 184 points
       Date   : 2020-07-23 21:14 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | holler wrote:
       | How will this affect commercial real estate? I've already noticed
       | an uptick in "for lease" signs on commercial buildings throughout
       | the major city I live in...
        
         | anpago wrote:
         | Big effect as it will on many pension funds and so on.
        
       | uberdru wrote:
       | We need ateliers, not offices.
        
         | david927 wrote:
         | Brilliant. I hope you don't mind if I quote you.
        
       | bluekite2000 wrote:
       | A few years ago I had to commute from Orange county to Manhattan
       | Beach. It takes 1 hour to get to the office (leaving at 5:15am in
       | the morning) and 1.5 hour to get home (leaving at 4pm). By the
       | time I got home I felt dead. It was a 30 mile trip. So to me the
       | long commute is what makes WFH convincing.
        
       | jariel wrote:
       | This is going to be another short decision making drive, decided
       | by the CFOs because they have the 'cost' numbers in front of
       | them, whereas issues like productivity are a little more
       | intangible.
       | 
       | We work in 'open spaces' because the CFO can definitively say
       | "$/employee!" - whereas the impact on staff is difficult to
       | measure. The 'up front cost' is the driver.
       | 
       | This same 'cost logic' will apply to remote working, once Ops can
       | see 'how cheap it is' they will love it but it may have nothing
       | to do with true ROI.
        
       | dave_4_bagels wrote:
       | Personally, I can't wait to get back into an office. Working from
       | home has helped me break some previous bad habits and improve my
       | self-discipline - which both positively impacted my productivity
       | while working from home.
       | 
       | However, even with commuting time, I'm happier (due to distinct
       | separation of home-time and work-time) and more productive when I
       | have an office I work from 3-4 days a week.
       | 
       | During my last "remote" engagement I joined a small community co-
       | working space in Boston after two weeks of "true" work from home.
       | I've found my idea balance is 3-4 days a week in-office and 1-2
       | days "remote".
       | 
       | I envy those of you who can work remote without issue, even as an
       | introvert who dislikes lots of people and distractions I can't
       | see "remote first" as something I enjoy going forward.
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | i've been pretty much 100% remote the last 5 years or so. I
         | definitely rely on coworking spaces to get out of the house and
         | around other humans. It's especially bad when kids are in
         | school and wife is working ( she's a teacher ). Being without
         | human contact all day every day really weighs on me over time.
        
       | chasd00 wrote:
       | It's interesting to me that companies are threatening to reduce
       | pay if a remote employee moves to a lower cost of living area.
       | It's hard to understand the logic when geography is the only
       | change driving the decrease in pay. Same person, same job, same
       | skills, same productivity, the only thing that has changed is the
       | person's cost of living.
       | 
       | I wonder if a remote employee working in a low cost of living
       | area moved to a high cost of living area would their pay be
       | increased or would the company put up a fight? "You voluntarily
       | moved to a high cost of living area, why should i pay you more?".
       | However, "you voluntarily moved to a low cost of living area, i'm
       | paying you less" is reality.
        
         | birdyrooster wrote:
         | Great observation. It's a shake down because they have leverage
         | over you.
        
           | ipnon wrote:
           | Markets in everything:
           | 
           | Your salary is the balance between the leverage you have over
           | the company and the leverage the company has over you. If
           | they can get rid of you and hire someone remotely for half
           | the price they will. If you want to stay in an expensive city
           | while working remotely and the company can't do without you,
           | they won't.
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | It's hard to hire remote employees in different COL areas
         | without opening yourself up to legal liability, if people are
         | able to bounce around and hold onto COL salaries
         | disproportionate to the local area.
         | 
         | Ex, if a bunch of white and asian bay area employees relocate
         | to Florida, taking their salaries, and then Facebook hires some
         | local hispanic employees at 1/2 the rate... well, you can try
         | to explain exactly what happened after you get sued, but that
         | doesn't sound like a lot of fun. And even if you legally get
         | away with it, you are going to have a lot of REALLY unhappy
         | employees.
         | 
         | Not to mention you're opening yourself up to a real game, where
         | employees move to the Bay Area for a year to get hired at a
         | high salary, and then immediately leave for 2x the salary. All
         | you've done is turned salaries into a game that benefit highly-
         | mobile employees.
         | 
         | So I definitely understand why this feels shitty, but I
         | honestly can't see it working any other way for large
         | corporations. You have to have some kind of local salary
         | adjustment you can stand behind, when you're remote-first
         | hiring.
        
           | ngngngng wrote:
           | I've thought about playing this game, one of the largest
           | retailers in the country just pays you based on the cost of
           | living in your zip code. I could move in with my in laws in
           | Honolulu for a few months and use that zip code, get hired,
           | and then move back to my low cost of living area.
        
         | dropit_sphere wrote:
         | Realistically, there will be two scenarios:
         | 
         | Company Type 1, where they don't care where you live
         | 
         | Company Type 2, where they explicitly care, and have some
         | stupid table they look at.
         | 
         | I suspect it will lead to a lot of employees at T2 companies
         | getting shafted. Not everyone is as Online as the HN crowd.
        
         | sneak wrote:
         | You could simply never give your employer your residential
         | address (use a post box) and then just continue to not do so
         | when you move.
         | 
         | My personal residence address is need-to-know, and if I were to
         | have an employer, they would have no need whatsoever to know my
         | residential address.
         | 
         | If you're remote, it's simply not their business. You might
         | have an extra step when filing state income tax, but that's
         | your liability, not theirs.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | Your employer probably has to pay state taxes/state
           | unemployment insurance, may have to ensure that they are
           | filing certain state forms as an employer of a resident of a
           | given state, may have to adjust health care policies to
           | address state-specific requirements (or residency
           | requirements of the plan they have, etc).
           | 
           | Unfortunately, given the run-amuckness of registration and
           | compliance requirements, it probably is needed for your
           | employer to know where you live (or at least in which state
           | and local taxation/regulation entity).
        
         | jorblumesea wrote:
         | > You voluntarily moved to a high cost of living area, why
         | should i pay you more?".
         | 
         | This does happen now when companies have multiple offices. I've
         | seen people move from LCOL to HCOL and see a cost of living
         | adjustment.
        
         | Igelau wrote:
         | Someone needs to run the experiment. Move to some place in
         | Russia outside the Moscow metropolitan area. Apply to Gitlab.
         | If you get the job, relocate to San Fran. See if your pay
         | quadruples.
        
         | alistairSH wrote:
         | My wife's employer makes fairly drastic COL changes based on
         | office location (bank with large corporate offices in 3-4 US
         | cities and branches worldwide). From the lowest COL office to
         | the highest, it can be 10s of thousands USD.
         | 
         | Edit - they don't officially do WFH (outside COVID) so cant
         | comment on that.
        
         | jcmontx wrote:
         | I seriously can't believe some companies have the nerve to pull
         | off something like this
        
       | spectaclepiece wrote:
       | What I find most interesting is how this might transform inner
       | cities. If central space is cheaper more space will be available
       | to artists and other cultural activities while also making room
       | for early stage startups which could give rise to a renewal of a
       | vibrant inner city atmosphere in places where this has been on
       | the decline due to high rental prices.
        
         | m0zg wrote:
         | Sure, the ability to work from anywhere in the world coupled
         | with a severe epidemic, riots, looting, and boarding up of city
         | centers will give rise to a "vibrant inner city atmosphere".
         | Uh-huh.
        
           | gberger wrote:
           | Cities will still exist even if remote work rises
           | significantly. There is a huge amount of buildings and
           | infrastructure which won't just disappear. Rather, demand for
           | them will fall, and since supply is flat, prices will drop.
           | This will give opportunity to less lucrative ventures to work
           | at the city center. Artists, for example, would have a harder
           | time working remotely.
        
             | m0zg wrote:
             | If we don't get a working, _and safe_ vaccine in the
             | foreseeable future (a real possibility), cities could all
             | turn into Detroit - high density living or work just won't
             | be epidemiologically viable.
        
             | rabidrat wrote:
             | It's a common fallacy that rents fall when demand drops. In
             | fact, they often don't, particularly for commercial space;
             | the owners choose instead to let the spaces go unused. I've
             | seen this happen up close with several buildings my city,
             | in several neighborhoods. There was an article a while ago
             | about how Greenwich Village suffered a similar fate.
        
               | mrep wrote:
               | Got a source to back up that claim? Detroit for example
               | has seen inflation adjusted commercial office space
               | prices massively drop:
               | 
               | "Adjusted for inflation, the average office tenant paid a
               | peak price of $34.34 per square foot during the fourth
               | quarter of 2000, 65.5 percent more than the current
               | average rate of $20.76, according to Newmark Knight Frank
               | data. It's almost as deeply pronounced for Class A space
               | -- which has the best amenities and finishes. Today's
               | Class A rental rate is $24.36 per square foot, but in the
               | third quarter of 2001, tenants paid inflation-adjusted
               | rent of $38.12 per square foot, 56.5 percent more than
               | now" [0].
               | 
               | [0]: https://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170730/news/
               | 635141/d...
        
               | chosenbreed37 wrote:
               | Can the city councils do anything to counter that? I
               | wonder...I heard about Frome (Southwest England) where
               | the local council took proactive steps to prevent the
               | high street being filled with betting shops. I think they
               | lowered business rates significantly and possibly other
               | measures.
        
               | aeternum wrote:
               | A land value tax can help quite a bit. It can both
               | prevent landlords from capturing all / most of the value
               | when rents rise and also help act as a cushion when rents
               | fall.
               | 
               | The current property tax system that most cities use make
               | little sense. It penalizes people for improving and
               | updating the structures on their land. Cities should be
               | encouraging property improvements.
        
           | pjmorris wrote:
           | It's not the 'everybody works there' that does it, it's the
           | 'cheap enough that artists can live there' that does it. My
           | mom split her time between art, her true love, and working as
           | a secretary, or a maid, or an office manager. She had a way
           | of living near where the art was happening, as artists tend
           | to have very little money, as did she. She could afford to
           | live just off the Lincoln Road Mall in South Beach in the
           | mid-80's, as did hundreds of other artists. The South Beach
           | that is now luxurious and pricey was once cheap, and shabby
           | and a bit dangerous. That's really the seed of a vibrant
           | inner city atmosphere. She repeated that (to smaller degrees)
           | several times in her life.
        
         | andyljones wrote:
         | There's no shortage of cities where central space has become
         | cheaper after their industry has collapsed, and they do not
         | have a great record of turning vibrant. The rust belt and the
         | north of England are the first areas to mind.
        
           | notJim wrote:
           | That's true, but if now there is central space freeing up in
           | major cultural hubs like NYC and SF, maybe it could be cool.
           | These places might, although to a lesser extent, have the
           | customer base of affluent people to support new cultural
           | spaces.
        
             | cortesoft wrote:
             | For the short term, maybe, but will they still have that
             | customer base if those affluent people don't need to stay
             | there for work?
        
               | notJim wrote:
               | IMO that's a big open question. Anecdotally, I've heard
               | of a lot of people moving away from these cities, but
               | most of them say they intend to move back. Since the
               | appeal of both cities is largely in activities that are
               | unavailable now, this is plausible to me. But it's also
               | plausible people will find they miss the city less than
               | they expected.
        
           | _jal wrote:
           | There are important differences between cities in regions
           | where an industry collapsed and where competition for down-
           | town office space has collapsed.
           | 
           | One of them lost their economic engine. The other is
           | undergoing a real estate adjustment.
        
           | ImaCake wrote:
           | I have seen this happen in a medium sized coastal city on
           | Australia's east coast. The major employer shut down in the
           | early 1990's and the once vibrant inner city did indeed
           | become a cesspool for a decade. But begining in the early
           | 2000's it started to come back to life, and the people who
           | moved in were the artsy types and the city became a wonderful
           | and curious place while still having a bit of a air of danger
           | and decay. These days it is somewhat gentrified, but it has
           | become very beautiful and pleasant. In the end my city
           | doesn't really have a central core which is a little
           | problematic for public transit (terrible quality), but the
           | old CBD is a lovely place.
        
           | milquetoastaf wrote:
           | Madchester, tho
        
       | irrational wrote:
       | My company is just finishing building millions of square feet of
       | additional office space on our campus. I wonder if someone up
       | high is starting to regret that decision.
        
         | Andow wrote:
         | AZ?
        
           | rwmj wrote:
           | If AZ = Astra Zeneca then drug research is not something you
           | can easily do at home!
        
         | perfmode wrote:
         | Could anyone have honestly foreseen the pandemic and its
         | ensuing upheavals?
         | 
         | Of course, one is free to regret.
         | 
         | Now, it would seem that the best we can do is make the most of
         | the information available to us in the present moment.
        
           | acituan wrote:
           | > Could anyone have honestly foreseen the pandemic and its
           | ensuing upheavals?
           | 
           | Absolutely. Previous WHO classification has a "Phase 4:
           | Sustained community-level outbreaks -> Medium to high
           | probability of pandemic" designation, which has a roughly
           | once-a-decade frequency historically. Compared to multi-
           | quarter, multi-year scale of real estate planning, 10 years
           | is not infinite long term. Of course it is so in comparison
           | to quarterly earnings, share prices, average tenure of a fund
           | manager, a CEO and so forth, so it doesn't get priced in or
           | gets bundled with other catastrophes.
        
             | perfmode wrote:
             | Interesting. Have any people/groups/organizations been
             | credited as having made prescient, non-trivial bets
             | anticipating this pandemic?
        
       | danny_sf45 wrote:
       | The only reason for me to not go back to the office is: fixed
       | working hours. Sure, my contract says I have to work 40h/week,
       | but I just can't. If I'm at the office, I would probably work
       | (focused) around 4 or 5 hours. The rest is "wasted" with: chat
       | with other coworkers (non-work related stuff), breaks... but I
       | have to be there for 8 hours no matter what. At home, I can work
       | those 4 or 5 hours (focused) and call it a day. I don't have to
       | pretend I'm working, I just close the laptop.
       | 
       | Same outcome (for the company), less (wasted) hours for me. This
       | is impossible to achieve if one has to go to the office. (can you
       | imagine entering at 9am and leaving at 2pm while telling
       | everybody: "hey, I cannot work anymore, I'm only able to work
       | focused 5 hours per day. See you tomorrow!".)
        
         | orwin wrote:
         | Yes, i'm the same. And if you're like me, i suppose sometime,
         | in high pressure situation, you can easily work 10 hours
         | straight. Doing this at the office is impossible, doing this
         | home is easy (if it stay exceptional). I'm more productive home
         | than i was at the office, and this is really surprising for me
         | ( i assumed i was just a slacker).
        
           | cuddlecake wrote:
           | I've had one of the most productive days yesterday, because
           | my internet went off.
           | 
           | Went on a berserk coding spree from 1PM to 1AM with some
           | small breaks in between. Completely cut off from any
           | distraction, I was able to concentrate.
           | 
           | Willpower and discipline are nice, but real restrictions that
           | are impossible to circumvent are better, at least for me.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | I have basically stopped eating lunch.
         | 
         | I'm not saying that's a good thing (it really isn't, and my QoL
         | improved when I forced myself to take a lunch break every day),
         | but it does change how much time my butt is in the seat between
         | 9 and 5.
         | 
         | What I am definitely missing out on is small talk with
         | coworkers. Small talk builds rapport. Rapport de-escalates
         | engineering disputes. I expect a year from now we'll all be
         | complaining about how nasty everybody is when everybody is
         | working remotely.
        
         | hesdeadjim wrote:
         | Guess I must be wired differently, but I look at that extra
         | time and think "what more could I do?", rather than "I'm
         | convinced this is the output required of me, thus I will do no
         | more with my new found time." _shrug_
        
           | danny_sf45 wrote:
           | Sure, if you can do more go for it. I just can't: my brain is
           | tired, my eyes hurt, I cannot produce any productive
           | output/outcome.
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | I think it's generally more related to a lot of time that's
           | wasted having ad-hoc conversations with people.
        
         | wil421 wrote:
         | Someone I heard recently phrased it very well:
         | 
         | "I don't want to spend 2 hours driving a day to do 4 hours of
         | work."
        
         | modzu wrote:
         | then there are those of us with kids and so's around. i can
         | barely get a bloody thing done and for one can't wait to go
         | back!
        
           | dijit wrote:
           | Not sure why you're being downvoted, being without children
           | (or having a dedicated space outside of the home) is
           | important.
           | 
           | Kids don't understand time or space boundaries very well, and
           | will interrupt your focus, your meetings, your work in
           | general.
           | 
           | I have a colleague with kids and he was the first to
           | volunteer back to the office.. I am without kids and I never
           | want to go back.
           | 
           | This works out decently well, because he's alone: thus, safer
           | than if we all came back.
           | 
           | But the issue is if there was more people in the office, then
           | they would make decisions which the rest of us are not privy
           | to.
        
           | Koshkin wrote:
           | Looks like nobody else wants to admit that.
        
           | y2bd wrote:
           | Isn't this more of an issue of school being out? Would your
           | kids going back to school solve this issue?
        
         | Polylactic_acid wrote:
         | I feel the same. For the last 3 hours of the day I just state
         | at my screen in zombie mode. With wfh when I start to feel
         | braindead I just lay in bed for 15 minutes and when I come back
         | I feel refreshed for the rest of the day. With no pressure to
         | look like you are constantly working you can do what works best
         | since no one can see more than your output at the end of the
         | week.
        
         | mavelikara wrote:
         | > chat with other coworkers (non-work related stuff)
         | 
         | > ...
         | 
         | > Same outcome (for the company),
         | 
         | What if the company cares for those non-work stuff - for
         | example, some of those chats being a mentoring conversation?
        
           | Koshkin wrote:
           | A mentoring conversation is actually (or should be seen as)
           | work stuff.
        
         | birdyrooster wrote:
         | I don't tell my coworkers when I do this but at Apple we are
         | adults and can go to the bathroom without permission. You can
         | come and go as you wish, that notwithstanding the waste of
         | colocating with and/or commuting to an office. I want virtual
         | reality so I can be in shared spaces for impromptu conversation
         | and coworking.
         | 
         | (Edit: I really don't miss my boomer/genx coworkers jamming out
         | to hair metal)
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | The most productive workers barely scrape 50% productivity;
         | however, idle, chat, socialization and other "wasteful" time
         | isn't wasted. You learn things about the needs of other groups,
         | colleagues, the politics and all sorts of things you'd never
         | pick up on working remotely.
        
           | katbyte wrote:
           | I'd rather spend that time on other things tbh
        
           | danny_sf45 wrote:
           | I agree that the socialization part is not actually "wasted"
           | time and I would love to do it as much (or as little) as I
           | want per week (ideally one or two days, instead of five days
           | per week on a forced basis).
        
           | baron_harkonnen wrote:
           | > all sorts of things you'd never pick up on working
           | remotely.
           | 
           | When people say these things I seriously question if they've
           | ever worked remote before. Yes if being remote makes you
           | atypical for your workplace, then you'll probably be left
           | out. But if you're working for a remote-first team the it's
           | completely different. Nearly all of my closest coworkers I've
           | met have been at remote companies.
           | 
           | I have had tons of interesting conversations, brainstorming
           | session and just generally fun discussion while remote.
           | 
           | Honestly, I have personally found the amount of more toxic
           | conversations also drops when remote. The problem with in-
           | office socialization is that you have to socialize with
           | people you might not particularly like (working with people
           | you don't like is fine, but having to have conversations with
           | them, go out for team drinks with them etc is another thing).
           | This leads to generally more toxic behavior, since you have
           | to put more energy into those social interactions.
        
             | Polylactic_acid wrote:
             | I have actually spoken more to my coworkers while remote
             | than at the office where its one bit open plan room where
             | having a conversation will bother 20 other people.
        
           | rightbyte wrote:
           | Political power play doesn't work out as easily remotely.
           | Social manipulations is harder. That is my observation.
        
           | throwaway894345 wrote:
           | I would be very interested to hear more about these claims if
           | you can share a link.
        
           | zwayhowder wrote:
           | Would love to read any research that backs that number. (I'm
           | not saying you're not right, I just like reading research
           | papers).
        
             | dijit wrote:
             | This one says we are only productive about 40%, which is
             | in-line with other stuff I've read:
             | 
             | https://www.inc.com/rebecca-hinds/new-research-says-
             | workers-...
        
       | throwawaysea wrote:
       | I really hope this trend sticks so that we can decentralize away
       | from big urban centers. It would really allow us to free
       | ourselves from crowded spaces/amenities, painful commutes, and
       | high prices, as well as letting us seek out the community/culture
       | that fits us best.
        
       | m_sanders wrote:
       | There was a fansinating take on the potential impact of a WFH
       | revolution on white collar works in The Telegraph the other day.
       | 
       | As companies embrace working from home and downsize their offices
       | presence, a lot of the barriers to entry to offshoring start to
       | disappear - if everyone is remote then a remote individuals in
       | cheaper Eastern Europe will likely integrate a lot easier than
       | when most the employees were sitting together in expensive
       | London.
       | 
       | White collar workers could face the same globalisation pressure
       | and wage deflation that's happened to blue collar workers over
       | the last 50 years or so.
       | 
       | Personally, if my team stays remote, then our next hire will most
       | likely not be London based. There's a much larger pool of
       | European talent available to us and we're now better setup to and
       | culturally open to hiring remote first. This isn't something our
       | company would have considered before COVID.
        
         | bitL wrote:
         | London is notorious for low SWEng salaries; you might not have
         | any other choice than to contract somebody in Ukraine who
         | didn't escape somewhere else if your own employees get higher
         | paid remote gigs in the US...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | jdhn wrote:
         | >White collar workers could face the same globalisation
         | pressure and wage deflation that's happened to blue collar
         | workers over the last 50 years or so.
         | 
         | I've been thinking about this a lot recently. Lots of white
         | collar people seemingly have a very "meh" attitude towards
         | manufacturing getting outsourced. What will the attitude be
         | once these white collar jobs start leaving?
        
         | philjohn wrote:
         | The flip side to that is with the UK leaving the EU will there
         | be legal and taxation hurdles. Also, sometimes having local
         | context, and the ability to meet locally at short notice is an
         | important requirement. I don't think it's as clear cut in all
         | cases.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | Doesn't work well when time zone difference is too large,
         | though.
        
           | chosenbreed37 wrote:
           | > Doesn't work well when time zone difference is too large,
           | though.
           | 
           | That is true. Although I've noticed that some outsourcing
           | companies are comfortable working to the office hours of the
           | headquarters.
        
       | ghaff wrote:
       | I was already unofficially remote. Meetings are actually a bit
       | better with everyone at home on camera. The thing I miss is
       | travel which was about 1/3 of my time. (And, fortunately, I live
       | in a fairly rural location with a dedicated office and forest
       | paths out my door.)
        
       | davidw wrote:
       | I miss working in the office a lot. It's nice to have a physical
       | separation between 'work' and 'home'. And I enjoy the company of
       | my coworkers - it's fun to occasionally chat about something
       | tangential to work, perhaps some interesting problem they dealt
       | with in the past, or local politics or whatever.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | torcete wrote:
       | I wonder if this is going to be the beginning of the decline of
       | big cities. Who wants to live in a expensive place if you don't
       | need to commute to work everyday?
        
       | game_the0ry wrote:
       | Corporate managers need to run the following exercise:
       | 
       | 1) Quantify the loss in productivity from employees working from
       | home. Call this "x."
       | 
       | 2) Calculate the savings in rent you don't have to pay for
       | putting the company's employees in an office. Call this "y."
       | 
       | 3) If x < y, pass on savings to shareholders, take your bonus,
       | and have a nice day.
       | 
       | 4) Explore hiring candidates outside of major metros and see if
       | you can pay them less.
       | 
       | Will not happen, of course. The modern corporate middle manager
       | thrives as a sycophant, constantly praising their bosses / and
       | boss's bosses - yes sir / ma'am, how high would you like me to
       | jump for my bonus? Thus, they are desperate to get back into the
       | office and play that sweet, sweet game of "office politics."
       | Also, they probably leased additional space for more tech and
       | digital marketing workers, so they are trying to not regret that
       | decision.
        
         | rwmj wrote:
         | What loss of productivity is that? Knowledge workers get a
         | whole lot more done when they're not being constantly
         | interrupted in an open plan office.
        
           | game_the0ry wrote:
           | x can be negative.
        
             | Terretta wrote:
             | So call it gain and have X positive.
             | 
             | Even the folks in non-tech jobs who hate WFH, griping about
             | missing look-em-in-the-eyes managerialism, or how they
             | can't do management-by-walking-around, acknowledge the past
             | few months have been more productive and curiously more
             | collaborative (right people across national offices invited
             | to "meetings" and able to attend).
             | 
             | So actual productivity up, other factors important to
             | Taylorist managers (but not to individual contributors)
             | sharply down.
        
       | s1t5 wrote:
       | Hopefully in the future we'll have more options rather than
       | offices becoming completely obsolete. Personally I still need a
       | good office environment to do my best work and an all-remote
       | future looks pretty bleak.
        
       | fasteddie31003 wrote:
       | We will let the free market decide if an office is a net positive
       | to the company. Each company will be different.
        
       | j45 wrote:
       | I see a real rise in each company having it's own internal
       | coworking/hoteling.
       | 
       | Getting together still has value but spaces will be transformed
       | more for collaboration... and also small individual offices as
       | work pods
        
       | jorblumesea wrote:
       | I wonder if this will result in the hollowing out of the American
       | downtown similar to the 60s and suburban white flight. It just
       | started to feel like the American inner urban core was coming
       | back, density was increasing, more funding to transit.
       | 
       | One of the great tragedies of American society in the 20th
       | century (in my opinion) was a focus on building everything around
       | the car, the suburb, and the commute. Producing well paid office
       | workers disconnected from any sort of community or the issues
       | around them. Everything is a drive away, no one walks anywhere,
       | feelings of isolation and segregation.
        
         | david927 wrote:
         | This is a huge question and I don't hear a lot of people asking
         | it. What is the future for cities? How will this change
         | suburbs? How can we create optimal communities?
         | 
         | I think it goes hand-in-hand with the coming loss of the car as
         | a personal device and its transformation into "individual
         | transit" as opposed to "mass transit". In the future, when you
         | can use an app to get an autonomous vehicle to take you where
         | you want to go, communities will restructure. Parking lots and
         | garages will go away, opening up a huge amount of real estate.
         | 
         | I wouldn't mind starting a sort of "virtual salon" to talk
         | about these larger questions. It's fascinating.
        
         | triceratops wrote:
         | > yet more focus on sprawl and car based transit.
         | 
         | Would it? With commutes dead, a good chunk of weekday traffic
         | is gone.
        
           | jorblumesea wrote:
           | It will, because people will buy farther out. One of the
           | major drivers of the urban core, density and transit was how
           | bad traffic can be. You want to live closer to work, which is
           | usually downtown. Now you want pretty much live on the
           | outskirts or the sticks. Without the commute, nothing
           | stopping cities from becoming extremely diffuse.
        
       | fortran77 wrote:
       | I don't have to work in an office, but I do. My consulting
       | company owns commercial space in Sunnyvale and Tel Aviv. I like
       | separating home and work. I work at work, and do non-work
       | activities at home.
       | 
       | I worry that this trend is simply to squeeze employees harder.
       | Now employees have to pay for their own workspaces, desks,
       | chairs, etc.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | dougmwne wrote:
         | If I may ask, how far do you live from your office? Is your
         | home comfortable and does it meet your needs? Is your office a
         | pleasant and productive space? I know many people who do
         | grueling 2-hour, one-way commutes so they can afford a modest-
         | size home and half-decent schools for their kids. Consider that
         | many people might not be in your position.
        
       | JMTQp8lwXL wrote:
       | The owners of traditional office buildings who will see the most
       | success in this crisis will be those who realize that --while,
       | yes, corporations may no longer need as large a footprint--
       | there's still valuable use of the capital infrastructure they
       | hold. The first ones to pivot to alternate property uses will do
       | best.
       | 
       | Another set of commercial property owners will sit on their
       | above-market lease agreements and try and squeeze blood from a
       | stone.
        
       | MangoCoffee wrote:
       | we probably going to needs Starlink to cover rural area first.
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | Predicted headline about 1 year from now: "U.S. companies decide
       | to move away from WFH arrangements, return to office".
       | 
       | (saying this as someone who's been WFH for a few years now)
        
       | progman32 wrote:
       | A coworker of mine recently pointed out that not only are
       | businesses saving money by closing offices, they're also
       | offloading other costs to the employees. Things like:
       | 
       | - Water, electricity, HVAC, sanitation
       | 
       | - Desks, chairs, ergonomic equipment, safety equipment
       | 
       | - Telecom, networking support
       | 
       | - Physical security
       | 
       | - Office supplies
       | 
       | - Misc. amenities like coffee and snacks
       | 
       | Some companies are taking this into account, but not all.
       | 
       | A personal anecdote: we had an all-hands meeting today and the
       | amount of emotion on display when the topic turned to returning
       | to the office strongly suggests people want to go back. Whether
       | or not that's temporary nostalgia for a previous life or an
       | enduring need is an interesting discussion, but there are
       | definitely people wanting to go back. I for one am even more in
       | the no-remote-only-gigs camp given recent events.
       | 
       | edit: formatting, I'll learn eventually
        
         | vecinu wrote:
         | Your coworker is totally on the money with this analysis.
         | 
         | More so, I think folks like me that had a 5 minute walking
         | commute are losing out a ton of benefits by not being near the
         | office anymore.
         | 
         | I'm lucky the weather's been cooperating but if I had to have
         | the A/C on for days I would easily be spending $60-100/mo just
         | for HVAC, forget the extra water, electricity and other utility
         | costs for the extra usage at home.
         | 
         | We got a $500 WFH stipend but it definitely won't cover 12-16
         | months of this.
         | 
         | Overall though, I realize I'm in the minority and most people
         | are winning back their time and money.
        
           | technofiend wrote:
           | I can take public transportation which is $2.50 a day. If I
           | don't then parking downtown is $150 per month in our current
           | building, but no one is allowed to go into the office. We're
           | getting a new building next year when we do return to the
           | office and parking will be $250+ across the street or $300+
           | for garage attached to the same building. That's what it
           | costs me to run my ancient, inefficient 220 volt window unit
           | and keep an uninsulated wooden garage apartment cool in the
           | summer. I will gladly go back to the office when it's
           | allowed.
        
           | horsawlarway wrote:
           | At least with my own company, the approach has been pretty
           | reasonable.
           | 
           | They know they're saving money in the long term on space, and
           | they're splitting that with employees pretty fairly. $1500 up
           | front for all existing employees and all new hires to
           | provision a space to work remote, and a $125 a month in
           | reimbursement for internet/phone/electricity, no questions
           | asked.
           | 
           | Frankly, it's made the transition pretty positive for all
           | parties. The company saves a ton in the long term on rental
           | space, and employees get a nice perk.
           | 
           | There are still folks that would prefer not being remote, but
           | most folks are pretty happy without a commute.
        
         | taurath wrote:
         | I think it depends where you live and your situation. I have
         | coworkers in small NYC studios who just want to get outside. I
         | have others who don't mind not taking the train for an hour a
         | day.
         | 
         | Many coworkers have a nice big house to work from. The ones
         | with kids most want to come back, because they appreciate the
         | mental separation they get.
         | 
         | Remember, Quarentine Work Is Not Remote Work -
         | https://www.hanselman.com/blog/QuarantineWorkIsNotRemoteWork...
        
           | setpatchaddress wrote:
           | This. People with many young kids, especially, seem to be
           | absolutely miserable.
           | 
           | More interesting than remote/in-office is that we don't seem
           | to be acknowledging the inevitable permanence of social
           | distancing measures. No more four-dudes-in-an-office. No more
           | coming to work with mild cold symptoms.
        
             | taurath wrote:
             | Maybe, oh goodness please, the return of actual OFFICES.
             | With DOORS. Thats the only way you're getting me to come
             | back into a work office, barring a rediculous raise.
        
         | chosenbreed37 wrote:
         | > A coworker of mine recently pointed out that not only are
         | businesses saving money by closing offices, they're
         | 
         | I hadn't considered this. I've always thought that many
         | companies are tied to long leases they wouldn't be able to get
         | out of that quickly. I can imagine some savings on the other
         | associated office costs.
         | 
         | > I for one am even more in the no-remote-only-gigs camp given
         | recent events.
         | 
         | Interesting...could you please elaborate on this?
        
           | kayodelycaon wrote:
           | My company was at the end of their lease for several office
           | buildings. They've since closed all but our largest offices.
           | We have some jobs that can't be done remotely (security and
           | certification requirements precludes outsourcing.) The
           | remaining offices are running skeleton crews with the
           | heaviest precautions we can do while remaining operational.
        
         | danny_sf45 wrote:
         | Another personal anecdote: in my company nobody wants to go
         | back to the office.
        
           | Guest42 wrote:
           | In my office the parents and people that have their own
           | offices as opposed to cubicles are the only ones looking to
           | return.
        
             | btgeekboy wrote:
             | Sure says a lot about open workspaces.
        
               | gsk22 wrote:
               | No it doesn't, it's just one anecdote. Anecdotally, most
               | people in my office are excited to return, including
               | those who work in an open workspace.
        
         | sergiotapia wrote:
         | I had the best of both worlds, I went in once a week - but I
         | loved going in. I met with my team, talked with our people
         | outside my division. Grabbed some good "city miami" food, no
         | "suburb miami" food. It was like a mini-vacation, every week
         | and it energized me for the following week.
         | 
         | Hard problem to solve. Other people in the company had to go in
         | every day, and I'm sure they LOVE not having to commute, and
         | for good reason.
         | 
         | Companies can't really "rent an office space" for one day a
         | week can they? It's not realistic. I wonder what will work look
         | like in the next 2 years. I'm glad I had a chance to experience
         | the office setting for a year at least.
        
           | mperham wrote:
           | > Companies can't really "rent an office space" for one day a
           | week can they?
           | 
           | Not exactly but they could get 1/5 the space and rotate
           | people onsite one day per week.
        
         | misterbwong wrote:
         | I'm on board with you on not wanting 100% remote anymore. I
         | used to want to work 100% remote but this pandemic has shown me
         | that working in any sort of team remotely is _hard_ to get
         | right (most companies don 't). I've come to the conclusion that
         | 3-4 days/wk max is viable and can be healthy.
         | 
         | The problem is there's so much information and communication
         | that happens implicitly through our day-to-day actions that
         | when you're remote, you have to make that information explicit.
         | It's tiring as hell.
         | 
         | For example, meetings. In person, you can look at a room and
         | understand some basic relationships-who is talking to whom, who
         | is laughing, who is avoiding, etc. This gives you valuable
         | information on the shape of the team and how to navigate and
         | work best with each other. Turn that into a zoom meeting,
         | however, and that information either has to be explicitly
         | pointed out or it is lost. This kind of thing eats up valuable
         | cycles for information that could have been communicated in a
         | literal glance.
        
           | baron_harkonnen wrote:
           | Remote meetings work best when they're frequent, short and
           | small groups.
           | 
           | Good remote teams have better communication in my experience
           | because very often "implicit" communication in an office
           | means you think you communicated something but did not.
           | 
           | Making all communication explicit is a useful habit to into,
           | and overall improves everything.
        
         | notJim wrote:
         | > I for one am even more in the no-remote-only-gigs camp given
         | recent events.
         | 
         | I don't understand this, why?
         | 
         | Regarding the rest of your comment, I totally agree. My mom and
         | sister both work for a large, old-fashioned company, and the
         | company didn't even let them take their dual monitors home with
         | them when WFH started. They both had to buy setups out of their
         | own pocket, and these are not people making tech salaries.
         | 
         | Really the biggest cost you're leaving off is space though.
         | It's really preferable to have a dedicated space for an office,
         | and this is not free. It's one thing for someone who made a
         | choice to go remote, but for people forced into it, it feels
         | unfair to me.
         | 
         | It wouldn't surprise me if in the new world, offices are viewed
         | as a perk rather than a requirement due to all this. I
         | personally work remotely for the record, but talking to many
         | people in my life, it's clear this is not for everyone.
        
           | cosmodisk wrote:
           | >and the company didn't even let them take their dual
           | monitors home with them when WFH started
           | 
           | That is such a low life mentality. Not to give two screens
           | worth $200 to someone who's probably making 10-20 times that
           | a month.
           | 
           | What I envisage is super localised hubs,or small office
           | spaces in residential areas. Small building nicely fitting
           | into the area and offering local people some level of office
           | like environment
        
           | philjohn wrote:
           | Exactly - I'm lucky in that I made a deliberate decision to
           | have a slightly longer commute because it meant a bigger
           | house and closer to an amazing school my children attend. I'm
           | fortunate to have a proper office that I can enter at the
           | start of the work day, and leave at the end - separating my
           | work and home life.
           | 
           | Having to work from your lounge, or kitchen, or worse bedroom
           | makes it much harder to switch off.
        
           | bonestamp2 wrote:
           | > I don't understand this, why?
           | 
           | As far as I can tell, this seems to be an introvert/extrovert
           | thing (for the most part). Extroverts miss being around
           | people they can engage in conversations with, while
           | introverts love not having extroverts around trying to engage
           | in conversations with them. I think both camps have valid
           | needs and right now the extrovert's needs aren't being met to
           | their satisfaction.
        
           | bitbuilder wrote:
           | >I don't understand this, why?
           | 
           | My sentiments are similar to OP's, and for me a large part of
           | my job satisfaction _was_ getting to hang out with really
           | incredible people all day, getting lunch with those people,
           | getting afterwork drinks with them, etc. Hanging out on video
           | chat just isn 't the same.
           | 
           | Of course, an argument can (and maybe should) be made that
           | it's smarter to to keep your work focused on the work, and
           | find your social outlets elsewhere. However, the unfortunate
           | reality is that for those of us far removed from school and
           | our home towns, work is where we tend to make our friends.
           | 
           | On top of that, I just enjoyed the change of scenery in
           | leaving my apartment in the burbs to go into a nice office
           | space in the city. Feeling restricted to the same space for
           | 24 hours a day is driving an unhealthy level of cabin fever
           | and boredom. For the first time in my life, I envy those with
           | the big house and a yard.
           | 
           | Of course that later point would be somewhat mitigated in a
           | world where I could work out of shared space or the local
           | coffee shop, so I'm not sure if that's an indictment of
           | remote work in general for my purposes.
        
             | dakiol wrote:
             | > Feeling restricted to the same space for 24 hours a day
             | is driving an unhealthy level of cabin fever and boredom.
             | For the first time in my life, I envy those with the big
             | house and a yard.
             | 
             | This is because of corona, not because of working from
             | home.
        
               | webdood90 wrote:
               | People say this but I don't really see the alternative. I
               | can't imagine going to a coffee shop to loiter every day.
               | The reality is I'm gonna be at home in my office, and
               | that is tiring.
        
               | flatline wrote:
               | I used to work remotely and really disliked it. Not
               | talking to coworkers and being stuck at home all day were
               | the two big reasons. I'm right back there now due to the
               | pandemic, and it's much the same, the evenings and
               | weekends are somewhat more boring than before but we
               | still manage to get out and do stuff because the weather
               | is nice this time of year.
               | 
               | I think this _could_ be different with a complete
               | overhaul of corporate culture but I haven 't seen it yet
               | in 20 years of employment with "teleworking" being an
               | option at least part of the time. Perhaps remote-first
               | teams really are different, but you're still stuck at
               | home all day, or spending time and money going to a
               | coffee shop and maybe finding a seat+wifi, etc.
        
         | draw_down wrote:
         | Yes, this downside of remote work almost never gets brought up.
         | I've worked remotely for about 10 years now and have no
         | interest in going back, but I think people should be clear-eyed
         | about what's in it for employers. Not so much coffee and
         | snacks, but office space, desks/monitor/chair, etc. Ethical
         | employers should be offering stipends for these.
        
         | randycupertino wrote:
         | > the amount of emotion on display when the topic turned to
         | returning to the office strongly suggests people want to go
         | back.
         | 
         | Could also be the most vociferous or those worried about losing
         | jobs to outsourcing? Also there's morale at play which could be
         | people wanting to showcase they're all-in for facetime and not
         | wanting to be the only ones without team spirit. imo people
         | will vote with their feet re: remote work by not interviewing
         | or accepting offers at companies that force back to the office.
         | 
         | Agree there's a nostalgia factor at play and need for ongoing
         | discussions, I think overall things are going to move towards
         | greater flexibility and maybe flex days/time etc.
        
         | egypturnash wrote:
         | I just wanna add one thing to this list:
         | 
         | - Physical space. If you've got a small home without a spare
         | room to turn into an office, have fun working on the kitchen
         | table!
        
           | briandear wrote:
           | True, but if you were remote only, you could live in a low
           | cost place and afford a bigger space.
        
             | mynegation wrote:
             | I could but I just do not want to. This pandemic definitely
             | stacked the cards against my living preferences
        
             | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
             | The place is chosen not only for the cost. Some people like
             | to live near the park, or downtown, because theaters
             | museums movies bars dancehalls are all there.
        
         | Shivetya wrote:
         | I am more that willing to take on those costs to work from home
         | forever because I get the freedom of no commute which not only
         | incurs an obvious cost but puts me at risk each day.
         | 
         | I also find my costs reduced because now I am no longer eating
         | out for lunch, let alone because I felt pressure to do so
         | daily.
         | 
         | However there are companies that are overly proud of their head
         | quarters and other real estate and are going to be loathe to
         | give it up; this includes elite addresses and locations
        
           | bradlys wrote:
           | Many people in big tech hubs don't pay for lunch. Work
           | provides it. Now, they all have to pay for lunch that they
           | weren't paying for before because the office is closed.
           | Sometimes this isn't just lunch - but up to 3 meals a day.
           | Same is true with transit. They took a company bus or work
           | paid for public transit.
           | 
           | Now, people who were living in spaces where they didn't have
           | a dedicated office space are dying for one. (like myself)
           | And, unfortunately, the competition for homes with more
           | bedrooms has skyrocketed. I'm looking at paying $2000 more a
           | month just so I can get a couple more bedrooms for office
           | work! Moving away for a year or more isn't a real option
           | either.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | Fringe benefits should always be expected to be transient
             | (meals, commute transportation), and it isn't wise to
             | include them in total comp calculations (as they're easier
             | to do away with than your comp).
        
               | bradlys wrote:
               | >Fringe benefits should always be expected to be
               | transient (meals, commute transportation), and it isn't
               | wise to include them in total comp calculations (as
               | they're easier to do away with than your comp).
               | 
               | Yet places like Google would argue for them as part of
               | their TC. The companies that tend to offer these benefits
               | don't usually get rid of them until they're going out of
               | business...
        
               | z3ncyberpunk wrote:
               | The companies offering these services are also so few and
               | far between it's ridiculous to even mention it
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | It's your job as an employee to not drink the kool aid
               | and to properly value benefits provided, regardless of
               | how they're marketed. Cash is king, everything else is
               | window dressing.
        
               | rightbyte wrote:
               | Sure but it is not just the $ sum but also $/h and
               | $/sweat and tear. Having eg. parking lots even if you
               | arrive at 10 aclock is also a big deal.
        
             | ckdarby wrote:
             | I have a hard time relating to your comment.
             | 
             | Why do you need a couple more bedrooms?
             | 
             | Can split a bedroom as an office with the other person in
             | your house.
             | 
             | If you have kids you can pair them up in the same bedroom
             | with bunk beds.
             | 
             | You could spend the money on a Murphy bed that folds up and
             | turns into a desk.
             | 
             | I have co-workers who even work from their dining room
             | table for the time being.
             | 
             | Moving is always an option every excuse you have just
             | follow up with, "and...?".
        
             | skwb wrote:
             | There has long been a debate if these free means actually
             | count as a form of reimbursement (and are therefore
             | taxable).
             | 
             | https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-cafeterias-
             | whet-...
             | 
             | https://www.businessinsider.com/irs-and-free-food-at-tech-
             | co...
        
             | spo81rty wrote:
             | Or you can move somewhere where the cost of living is 80%
             | lower...and still work remote.
        
               | bradlys wrote:
               | Until you have to go back to the office whenever that
               | is... And say goodbye to all of your friends/family.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | If my time's worth $50 an hour, it'd have to be a damn good
             | free lunch or a damn short commute for the free-lunch-for-
             | unpaid-commute trade to be a good deal.
        
             | godzillabrennus wrote:
             | If tech companies don't adjust for cost of living and you
             | move you can save money on housing and get more space.
        
               | take_a_breath wrote:
               | Isn't that the point though? If the worker has to move in
               | order to get more space, the worker is bearing the costs
               | (literal and opportunity).
        
         | progman32 wrote:
         | @notjim @chosenbreed37 - I chose not to expand because it's
         | specific to my own situation, but: I found remote work isn't
         | for me. A selection of reasons (from pre-and-post covid
         | experience): I find my communication stilted, I really miss
         | hanging out with my colleagues, online whiteboards aren't the
         | same, we have beer and board games, aisle conversations are
         | useful, it's easy to see if it's OK to interrupt someone with a
         | question in-person, and frankly it's motivating to have people
         | bustling around working on stuff directly related to your own
         | work. Half-and-half remote and in-person is probably a good
         | balance for me. Yes a lot of the above reasons are a)
         | privileges and b) can be mitigated with good remote work
         | discipline, but again, it's just my preference.
         | 
         | > Really the biggest cost you're leaving off is space though.
         | 
         | 100% agree. Many people are literally working in closets or
         | worse, if they even can.
         | 
         | @taurath - "Quarantine Work Is Not Remote Work" good point.
         | People are learning to support their remote colleagues right
         | now, whether they intended to or not :) So "normal remote work"
         | might be even better after this chapter concludes.
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | Definitely a trade-off, as the costs previously mostly foisted
         | off on employees were related to commuting to the office (time,
         | car, parking, public transport, etc.)
         | 
         | The leading companies would take account of those costs. One
         | would hope they would also adapt to take acct of home office
         | costs
         | 
         | I'm seeing/expecting people will want to go in some, but not
         | back to 5-days in the office. 2-3 days, when necessary to
         | really do things together.
         | 
         | If this reduced office loading prevails, it'll also help
         | everyone from workers to cities with the misery & costs of
         | commuting (tho I did read that NPR has lost huge audience due
         | to loss of commute-time listeners).
        
         | take_a_breath wrote:
         | I've been saying this for months on HN and it hasn't been very
         | well-received. Maybe such a large percentage were already
         | remote that it seems obviously better to them?
        
         | schwinn140 wrote:
         | I'm not experiencing this and I would assume anyone employed at
         | a larger or established company would mirror this.
         | 
         | I've seen our company quickly react to the reduced office
         | related costs and have reallocated that to cover employee's
         | home office needs: internet service, phone, supplies. If you
         | needed a desk at home, that also was accommodated.
         | 
         | Being able to take our work computer(s), including dual
         | monitors, was also immediately available to everyone.
        
         | cosmodisk wrote:
         | We run two office buildings on the same road: we went to the
         | main one to collect all the IT equipment,pack it up and put it
         | in the other,smaller office. We used to run fully in house.
         | Yes,some people do want to go back to the office but the main
         | reasons are: we were all stuck at home for months,so people do
         | want to regain some sort of normality. Some have difficulties
         | at home,so going to the office is better. Me personally? I run
         | a 10 people team that will be half that size in a few days. I
         | live in a 1 bed flat,so writing unit tests and dealing with
         | dodgy suppliers,while Peppa Pig is blasting in the background
         | can be challenging. However,I don't want to spend 3h on
         | commuting daily.Screw that. The desk cost was about PS3K a
         | year,so I'm sure there will be some negotiation space to get
         | something arranged for WFH.
        
           | chosenbreed37 wrote:
           | > I run a 10 people team that will be half that size in a few
           | days.
           | 
           | Is this something that is coming about as a result of the
           | pandemic?
        
             | cosmodisk wrote:
             | We were very reliant on consumer credit, while selling
             | services almost twice the going price,which has now gone,so
             | the sales won't be anywhere near of what it used to be.
        
         | scarface74 wrote:
         | I worked at a job I loved pre-Covid - great coworkers, freedom
         | to tinker, a large amount of autonomy, admin access to our AWS
         | account so I didn't have to worry about the infrastructure
         | gatekeepers (I was hired as the de facto "cloud architect"),
         | etc.
         | 
         | But, I couldn't stand the loud open office. One of the reasons
         | I changed jobs was because there was talk about us coming back
         | into the office by the end of June.
         | 
         | My job (for a FAANG) now was always designed to be fully remote
         | and I couldn't be happier. I've job hopped for the last decade,
         | but there isn't a dollar amount that would make me go back into
         | the office.
        
       | aresant wrote:
       | Office buildings are a $2,500,000,000,000 asset class in the USA
       | alone.
       | 
       | Throw in retail and you're at >$5 trillion of value.
       | 
       | And the market is in total chaos due to COVID-19, fortunes are
       | going to be made and lost on a ridiculous scale over the next
       | decade as institutional investors reposition their trillions of
       | dollars of equity in this market.
       | 
       | Institutional investors rely on commercial real estate as it's
       | one of the only asset classes at SCALE that can:
       | 
       | (a) Generate cash flow
       | 
       | (b) Is asset backed
       | 
       | (c) Is highly leverageable w/relatively low default risk (debt)
       | 
       | As a result the world's largest institutional funds - pensions,
       | sovereign wealth, insurance companies, etc typically invest a
       | large allocation of their overall funds (10 - 25%) in the CRE
       | class.
       | 
       | This lets them pay their current liabilities - teacher pensions,
       | public services, insurance coupons, etc - with cash, while also
       | generating longer term IRR returns on the appreciating assets to
       | cover ever expanding liabilities.
       | 
       | For generations of institutional wealth managers retail and
       | office space were the #2 and #3 largest overall allocations of
       | their real estate portfolios (1)
       | 
       | Part of this is due to the scale in office / retail - those two
       | product types represent ~$5 trillion in asset value and are only
       | outstripped by multifamily ($2.9t) in scale. (2)
       | 
       | But as both office and retail have been slipping for the past
       | decade institutional managers had slowly begun to reposition and
       | reallocate to other sectors while keeping a toe in.
       | 
       | But as it's done elsewhere COVID-19's arrival has massively
       | pulled trends in CRE forward by probably a decade with regard to
       | the reallocation.
       | 
       | As a result what most CRE investment pros are expecting a
       | significant increase in valuation multiples across alternative
       | CRE asset classes including multifamily, self storage,
       | industrial, etc.
       | 
       | What's terrifying about the idea of massive winners & losers in
       | the space is the potential further erosion of returns on
       | institutional investors, who are typically already well behind
       | investment targets to maintain their expanding liabilities.
       | 
       | Great resource / primer here if you're interested - (1)
       | https://www.leggmason.com/en-us/insights/investment-insights...
       | 
       | (2) https://www.reit.com/data-research/research/nareit-
       | research/...
        
       | birdyrooster wrote:
       | The reason I won't be coming back to the office is because my
       | managers love not having to come in anymore. It's that simple.
        
       | supergeek133 wrote:
       | I'm still amazed the fight seems to be "everyone works from home"
       | or "everyone works from the office".
       | 
       | I've been fairly productive since we all started full-time from
       | home in March. However I prefer working at the office. As time
       | has gone on I've found myself losing routine. Either working
       | sporadically through the day or longer hours in general.
       | 
       | Being somewhere does a better job for me of time-boxing work.
       | 
       | That being said, I also have my work and personal machine in the
       | same room. So now I'm spending most of my time in one room! I'm
       | working to rectify that situation.
        
       | jacquesm wrote:
       | If there is one business I would not want to be in right now it
       | is commercial real estate. I'll be letting go of 2/3rds of our
       | office space at the end of this year and I may even get rid of
       | all of it depending on how things develop.
       | 
       | With some luck this will have a nice downward effect on house
       | prices in and around Amsterdam, where plenty of companies have
       | converted houses to offices.
        
       | oakfr wrote:
       | Companies _think_ that remote work works but they fail to realize
       | that most of what happened over the past few months was based on
       | prior momentum built inside the office they are carelessly
       | ditching.
        
         | triceratops wrote:
         | Couldn't you bring people together once a quarter or bi-yearly?
         | Book a nice villa someplace exotic for a couple of weeks, get
         | all the planning and coordination out of the way, give everyone
         | the last few days off with families invited.
        
           | bradlys wrote:
           | Would that really be any cheaper for the business than just
           | renting an office?? Flying people to nice destinations and
           | putting them in expensive hotels along with their families is
           | $$$.
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | Almost certainly. Toptal used to do it. I'm not sure if
             | they still do.
        
           | helltone wrote:
           | How would this work when both parents work different jobs and
           | children in school?
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | Same way they take vacations. The parent working remote has
             | more flexibility to take on childcare responsibilities the
             | rest of the year, so they can probably work something out
             | together.
        
           | greenyoda wrote:
           | Going "someplace exotic" may be great for some people, but if
           | you have responsibilities such as being the caregiver for an
           | aging parent, being forced to be away from home for a couple
           | of days or weeks can be a big problem.
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | True. OTOH, and not to invalidate anyone's experiences, but
             | people shouldering such responsibilities typically have
             | help already (either paid or other family). Otherwise they
             | couldn't do their current job. They also, presumably, have
             | plans/protocols for when they need to take a vacation or
             | break. Unless they were otherwise spending all their free
             | time on caregiving, which isn't sustainable or healthy.
             | They could potentially use those same measures when it's
             | offsite time and even be given some makeup time off later.
             | 
             | They could also get an exception and attend the working
             | sessions remotely. But there's a chance that could lead to
             | fewer opportunities for advancement for them, because they
             | weren't there. Which sucks. It's not an ideal situation.
             | 
             | BTW, lots of enterprise sales companies already do annual
             | "sales kickoff" events where they fly all their salespeople
             | globally to a single place. It's not unprecedented.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | > Unless they were otherwise spending all their free time
               | on caregiving
               | 
               | You're not far off the description of parents of young
               | and early school-age children. Kids are in school/daycare
               | for part of the day, then at home, needing dinner, care,
               | etc.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | That's different from caring for elderly family members.
               | Parents with young families (maybe not those with
               | newborns) can and do take vacations and travel. They also
               | often have paid help even in their non-work hours e.g.
               | babysitters or nannies.
        
               | stormbeard wrote:
               | This is resolved by going somewhere within an hour of the
               | office location. It's a good idea, but not everyone wants
               | to be forced into traveling for work.
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | I worked at a company that did this: big in person retreats,
           | once or twice a quarter. I've now been working remotely due
           | to covid about as long as I worked at that company before I
           | was laid off. I still feel much closer and more in sync with
           | my current coworkers than I did to my coworkers at the remote
           | company.
        
         | devmunchies wrote:
         | also most people on your team has met in person, so there's
         | that momentum too. It's a complete different vibe when
         | teleconferencing with people you've met several times than with
         | those you have not.
         | 
         | And I don't think a quarterly on-site is enough.
        
         | sjtindell wrote:
         | I like this point, we've had a lot of success going remote but
         | also haven't been through multiple rounds of planning out the
         | next quarters yet, everything was in place.
        
       | huy-nguyen wrote:
       | Will this trend revive the fortune of WeWork? We can have a
       | future where teams within a company decide on "core days" where
       | everyone is in the office but WFH the rest of the week and the
       | company can pay for a variable number of office spaces depending
       | on the week day. WeWork can become the cloud but for office
       | spaces.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | paul_f wrote:
         | The general idea of WeWork, but not that business model
        
         | chosenbreed37 wrote:
         | I think there was always a viable business in WeWork. Just not
         | with all the excesses and crazy valuations. But prior to the
         | current pandemic it certainly meet a need. Granted they were
         | not the only ones offering the same service. But even that in
         | itself would suggest that with the proper management it would
         | be successful operation.
        
           | birdyrooster wrote:
           | WeWork should make studio space for YouTubers that has
           | ambient noise dampening and good facilities for lighting and
           | rigging.
        
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