[HN Gopher] Partying like it's 1999 - Initial public offerings a...
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Partying like it's 1999 - Initial public offerings are back in
Silicon Valley
Author : prostoalex
Score : 52 points
Date : 2020-08-21 05:18 UTC (1 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
| jedberg wrote:
| Might as well get your piece of the pie while the government is
| still pumping billions into the market with QE.
| WealthVsSurvive wrote:
| Partying like it's 1929.
| jdc wrote:
| However unlike that period, we won't have to deal with a
| contracting money supply.
| duaoebg wrote:
| The Weimar Republic didn't have a contracting money supply
| in that period
| rootsudo wrote:
| Invest in your government. Buy Bonds!
| sigmaprimus wrote:
| It's actually the opposite that will need to be dealt with.
|
| How much of the recent stock market gains are due to a
| hidden inflation thanks to the trillions of dollars being
| borrowed (or printed) by all the governments around the
| world?
|
| Get ready for 2 dollar eggs and 20 dollar loaves of bread!
| greesil wrote:
| That doesn't seem to be what happens when the interest
| rate for full employment is below zero. I do think it has
| some other effects, like hedgefunds can easily leverage
| themselves to buy up assets that normal people want, like
| houses.
| nitrogen wrote:
| Speaking of houses, I've heard from some local agents
| that the housing market in my part of Utah is currently
| dominated by cash offers. They didn't say where the cash
| was coming from.
| paulryanrogers wrote:
| Around my area of the Midwest the cash offers are from
| investors. Guess the only alternative to equities is real
| estate.
| csomar wrote:
| It's possible it doesn't result in inflation if the
| general public doesn't benefit from the stock market
| appreciation. Worse, it might make them poorer if they
| buy the top.
|
| But it probably means hot markets like nyc, sf, la will
| remain very expensive.
| danieltillett wrote:
| I am most sure if NYC and SF are too hot at the moment.
|
| It really is hard to say what will happen as the banking
| system is so different today than in the past. I do think
| we will see continued leaking of all the new money that
| is being printed out into hard assets, but beyond that I
| have no idea.
| eldavido wrote:
| Show me another place with 100,000 100k+ jobs.
|
| There aren't many markets like this in the US and they're
| all expensive. NYC, Northern Virginia/DC. Overheated,
| maybe, but not by much.
| almost_usual wrote:
| > But it probably means hot markets like nyc, sf, la will
| remain very expensive.
|
| All of those cities are seeing price declines.
|
| SF will probably bottom out in 6-8 months. Depending on
| how long these fires burn prices could go down quite a
| bit.
| api wrote:
| ... and the $3m starter home?
| biolurker1 wrote:
| Palantir knows this well
| contingencies wrote:
| This is uncharacteristically poor journalism from the
| _Economist_. The graph shows excepting 2009 and 2016 there has
| been effectively no significant downturn, whereas the title
| suggests an order of magnitude change in the last two years.
| knolax wrote:
| I wouldn't say uncharacteristic. The economist has always been
| short on details and overflowing with unecessary snark.
| neonate wrote:
| https://archive.is/GSxK4
| batt4good wrote:
| And it looks like California is planning on keeping an ever
| larger portion of that oh so sweet founder IPO dough!...
| godzillabrennus wrote:
| Good time to shelter in place in a tax haven now that your
| working remotely.
|
| New Hampshire can be quiet lovely.
| onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
| California is quite aggressive at taxing income from stock
| people were granted while living in California.
| fiberoptick wrote:
| Your comment is technically correct, but misleading.
|
| In fact California specifically does _not_ tax ex-residents
| for income arising from the disposition of stock acquired
| with ISOs, which is usually the way pre-IPO employees
| acquire shares. This is true even if the ISOs were granted
| for work performed in California.
| xoxoy wrote:
| And Tesla just surpassed Walmart in market cap even though their
| total quarterly deliveries have been relatively flat around
| 80-90k per quarter for almost 2 years.
| 01100011 wrote:
| It's an obvious short opportunity but how can you know how long
| the market will remain irrational?
| zipwitch wrote:
| "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain
| solvent."
|
| Here's a piece on the origin of the quote:
| https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
| cryptica wrote:
| The market is rational, the monetary system is what's insane.
| If the Fed doesn't start raising interest rates, this
| insanity will only continue and intensify. Buying
| cryptocurrency is the purest, most direct, most effective way
| to benefit from the current madness.
|
| The Fed is just going to keep printing as much money as is
| necessary to meet its full employment mandate (which is
| physically impossible at this stage due to automation).
| Employees all over the world are currently going round in
| circles and digging holes and filling them back up. Any white
| collar worker who takes their job seriously at this stage
| needs to wake up... What's going on is so obvious.
|
| Just bring in UBI and abolish the Fed. Better have idle
| people getting paid to do nothing than busy people getting
| paid to pretend to do something and engaging in self-
| deception... And let's not forget all the people who can't
| get a job because their useless skills are not useless in
| exactly the right way as demanded by their equally useless
| employers.
|
| I've seen many people get rich who have about the
| intelligence of a wild macaque and I've also seen very smart
| people struggling to make ends meet.
| ttul wrote:
| You can't know.
| api wrote:
| Is it? Which company has more growth ahead of it? Wal-Mart is
| slowly digesting in the Amazon Saarlac pit like all retail.
|
| Stocks are valued by growth unless they pay a lot of
| dividends, and dividends are rare today.
| eldavido wrote:
| Not quite that simple, Amazon tried to buy Whole Foods last
| year and has basically failed to get traction on groceries.
|
| Not saying you're completely incorrect but there's room for
| a lot of companies in retail doing a lot of different
| stuff.
| nip180 wrote:
| Walmart is growing, and hits over $500B revenue a year.
| Growing at that scale is impressive.
|
| Tesla sales luxury cars during an economic recession.
| Walmart sells cheap food and household goods.
|
| I'd buy Walmart stock before Tesla if I had to choose a
| long position on one or the other.
| mpfundstein wrote:
| quite funny that you are downvoted. you are totally right
| tesla is a forward looking company that will continue to
| surprise while walmarts whole business will suffer due to
| the implications of the corona crisis.
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