[HN Gopher] Election Battleground State Changes
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       Election Battleground State Changes
        
       Author : aarkay
       Score  : 50 points
       Date   : 2020-11-05 20:02 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (alex.github.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (alex.github.io)
        
       | TrackerFF wrote:
       | Nice
       | 
       | Who's up for adding simple graphs to this?
        
       | par wrote:
       | I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations
       | (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so
       | awesome!
       | 
       | Also, according to the trends here:
       | 
       | Alaska - Trump (3 votes)
       | 
       | Arizona - Trump (11 votes)
       | 
       | Georgia - Biden (16 votes)
       | 
       | North Carolina - Trump (15 votes)
       | 
       | Nevada - Biden (6 votes)
       | 
       | Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes)
       | 
       | Winner would be Biden.
        
         | fendy3002 wrote:
         | This show how our brain, despite being inaccurate can concious
         | / subconsciously estimate those calculation. Our brain is
         | amazing.
        
       | AdamN wrote:
       | This is helpful. Would be nice to have this be a large table with
       | all the active states mixed together. I could just visit this
       | page and look for changes since I last looked.
        
       | bg24 wrote:
       | Amazingly simple and clear. Thank you.
        
       | Anechoic wrote:
       | Keep in mind that these numbers may not be current. For example,
       | as of right now (5:40pm EST), the estimated number of remaining
       | votes in Pennslyania listed on the site is 431,723, but the PA
       | Secretary of State put the number remaining as 326,000 an hour
       | ago[1]. The NYT API may be using modeled numbers.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/...
        
       | sparker72678 wrote:
       | I've been looking for something exactly like this. Thanks so
       | much!
        
       | lxe wrote:
       | Love the tech here. A periodically generated html page / json
       | file committed to a repo through github actions.
        
       | mthoms wrote:
       | This is really useful. Nice work.
       | 
       | The description for the "Block trend" column could perhaps be a
       | little clearer. It currently reads:
       | 
       | >How has the trailing candidate's share of recent blocks trended?
       | Computed using a moving average of previous 30k or more votes (or
       | as many as available).
       | 
       | To me that says "We compute the moving average using the last 30k
       | votes, except when we use more or less than that.".
        
         | brational wrote:
         | To me it reads "We aim for 30k but take what we can get." You
         | can see that the update sizes from the nytimes source vary
         | greatly.
        
       | nicklevin wrote:
       | There's a row in PA listing Biden with 104.3% of the vote in a
       | block with 1285 votes (the differential increased by more than
       | the total number of votes). Data error?
        
         | nicklevin wrote:
         | I also see 3 blocks in PA of 25k+ votes with 90%+ Biden (one is
         | 97%) - can someone better at statistics tell me how likely that
         | is due to chance given the other values (assuming the data is
         | reporting accurately)?
        
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       (page generated 2020-11-05 23:00 UTC)