[HN Gopher] Texas astronomers revive idea for 'Ultimately Large ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Texas astronomers revive idea for 'Ultimately Large Telescope' on
       the moon
        
       Author : dnetesn
       Score  : 166 points
       Date   : 2020-11-17 11:49 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (phys.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (phys.org)
        
       | moralsupply wrote:
       | The major issue with a telescope in the moon would be the very
       | fine sand in moon's surface that would cause mechanical failures
        
         | evan_ wrote:
         | Would it? With no wind, the sand mostly stays on the ground.
         | When it does get kicked up by something, it goes right back
         | down since there's no atmosphere.
        
           | NikolaeVarius wrote:
           | What. Things come down because of gravity, not because the
           | pretense of an atmosphere.
           | 
           | Presumably the stuff required to move stuff to make the scope
           | will disturb at least some sand
        
             | SlipperySlope wrote:
             | Early moon mission demonstrated that rock and feather fell
             | at the same speed.
             | 
             | Ergo, ultra fine dust will fall to the moon's surface at
             | the same rate as a boulder.
             | 
             | Dust will stick with static electricity however much better
             | on the moon - so your point has an even better
             | justification.
        
             | lstodd wrote:
             | The point of lacking any atmosphere is that dust is not
             | getting blown around. It just goes down.
        
           | snowwrestler wrote:
           | US astronauts found that static charge made the regolith
           | stick to everything that came near it. Basically anything
           | that moved across the surface got quickly coated. And because
           | there is no weathering on the moon, the particles could be
           | extremely small and sharp, which made it difficult to exclude
           | or expel them. Apollo suits at the Smithsonian are still gray
           | with embedded regolith. Conservators try to minimize flexing
           | as the embedded sharp particles chew up the fabric fibers
           | over time.
        
             | IronRanger wrote:
             | Moon dust is basically like asbestos:
             | 
             | https://www.businessinsider.com/moon-dust-is-toxic-2012-7
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | If it's electrostatic (rather than, say, van der Waals
             | forces), could it not be dealt with by big sheets of metal
             | and a high voltage supply?
        
       | metalliqaz wrote:
       | It's hard to imagine how this could be easier or cheaper than
       | just launching another space telescope. I see from the article
       | that it uses a spinning liquid mirror, so yes, that would require
       | gravity to work, but how many extra launches would it take to get
       | the telescope to the moon and _also_ the lander equipment.
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | The thinking might be that if we are going to return to the
         | moon, then the more we have in the way of useful projects to do
         | there, the better.
         | 
         | The JWST is not exactly going smoothly, and telescopes of that
         | size will not be powerful enough to study the era of the first
         | stars.
        
         | sbierwagen wrote:
         | It absolutely would not be easier or cheaper. It would be a
         | larger, more capable instrument than the JWST. From the paper:
         | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/588034
         | 
         | >Without an independent infrastructure in place at a lunar
         | pole, it would likely be impossible to construct and operate a
         | large liquid-mirror telescope.
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | Launch a mining and manufacturing unit and built it along with
         | anything else we need on the moon
        
           | metalliqaz wrote:
           | That technology doesn't exist...
        
             | m4rtink wrote:
             | Until someone starts working on it, no technology usually
             | exists.
        
               | metalliqaz wrote:
               | Yeah, well, right now a mining and manufacturing
               | operation on Earth weighs more than the entirety of
               | everything humankind has ever lifted into space, by at
               | least an order of magnitude, probably several orders of
               | magnitude. And it still relies on a worldwide
               | transportation network to move materiel. We could build
               | 10 JWST and still come in well under budget compared to
               | developing that tech.
        
               | nitrogen wrote:
               | Watching Cody's Lab on YouTube, it seems people used to
               | mine and refine (distill) some metals with what looks
               | like less than a ton of equipment.
        
         | helsinkiandrew wrote:
         | I assume (its a shame the article didn't go into this) that the
         | telescope would basically be a big fabric structure and it and
         | the liquid mirror can be easily transported and set up without
         | humans.
         | 
         | The magnification of the 100M mirror make up for the lack of
         | being able to point it anywhere at a much reduced cost than a
         | 'traditional' space telescope.
        
       | Jyaif wrote:
       | How would they keep the liquid from evaporating? Would they need
       | to enclose it?
        
         | mrfusion wrote:
         | Could it be a liquid like mercury? Would that evaporate?
        
           | rtkwe wrote:
           | Mercury does still have a vapor pressure and evaporates at
           | room temperature so it could evaporate some but it would be
           | in the shade so it would need warming to remain liquid more
           | than cooling so the evaporation rate could be controlled and
           | would probably be very very slow around it's freezing point.
        
         | postalrat wrote:
         | If its highly reflective maybe it won't heat up much in
         | sunlight.
        
           | lstodd wrote:
           | It can't be in sunlight, or the telescope would be useless.
           | 
           | The problem would be more in choosing a material that has low
           | enough melting point so that making up for the radiative loss
           | to keep it melted wouldn't be a big issue and at the same
           | time vapor losses can be managed. Which is why they propose
           | separate materials for the mirror body and its surface I
           | guess.
        
             | postalrat wrote:
             | Why would it be useless? I'm sure dark is preferable but
             | there isn't an atmosphere on the moon and most of light
             | should reflect away from the sensor.
             | 
             | Of course it should probably never point at the sun unless
             | they want to melt their sensors.
        
         | janmo wrote:
         | If the liquid is kept in the shadow it will be at a temperature
         | of zero kelvin (-273 degC). I guess that at this temperature
         | mercury won't evaporate.
        
           | kingbirdy wrote:
           | Won't it still boil due to the near-zero pressure?
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | Depends how cold you can keep it. Even if it doesn't boil
             | it could sublimate away if not kept extremely cold.
        
           | henearkr wrote:
           | Then on the contrary how do they keep it from freezing?
        
             | NikolaeVarius wrote:
             | By heating it
        
           | sp332 wrote:
           | Permanently shaded regions don't get much below 25K, maybe up
           | to 70K. http://lroc.sese.asu.edu/posts/979 Still good enough
           | for mercury of course.
        
       | VMG wrote:
       | I hoped this would be about converting a meteorite crater into a
       | mirror
        
         | Out_of_Characte wrote:
         | It might still be, creating a disk of 100m in diameter on the
         | moon would need all the help you can get. There aren't exactly
         | alot of bulldozers on the moon.
        
           | BlueTemplar wrote:
           | You could a bit like in Arecibo, and pick a properly-sized
           | crater ?
        
       | mturk wrote:
       | The article suggests they will be able to "unambiguously
       | identify" Population III stars, which would be absolutely
       | incredible.
        
         | detritus wrote:
         | For anyone else unfamiliar with the term, here's a link to an
         | explanation: https://kipac.stanford.edu/highlights/population-
         | iii-stars-u...
         | 
         | Particularly - "Astronomers grouped stars in the order they
         | were observed, so Pop I stars are present-day stars, with Pop
         | II stars being one generation older. Pop III stars are the
         | hypothesized oldest stars in existence."
        
       | api wrote:
       | I've thought for a long time that this would be a great science
       | mission for a manned lunar landing or a series of them. This is
       | probably something too complex and large to robotically assemble
       | on the Moon, and a human mission could also use in-situ lunar
       | resources (e.g. lunar concrete) to help build such a thing. You
       | could build a _massive_ telescope up there that would be able to
       | outperform anything we currently have by many factors.
       | 
       | Even better would be an array of them precisely positioned and
       | bound together.
       | 
       | I wonder how big you'd have to go to actually _see_ exoplanets?
       | Wow.
        
       | janmo wrote:
       | There is also the interesting idea of building a radio telescope
       | on the moon.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Crater_Radio_Telescope
        
         | rozab wrote:
         | I think this might have been posted on HN recently. To me this
         | is a far more appealing project. It could require very little
         | payload weight, and it achieves something that is only really
         | possible on the moon.
         | 
         | I would like this to be the project that really drives future
         | human presence on the lunar surface.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | According other headlines, they are going to need to create a
           | radio free zone on the moon as they are talking about
           | installing a 4G network.
        
             | NikolaeVarius wrote:
             | They build on the far side to address this.
        
       | jvanderbot wrote:
       | One sign that this is a good idea, is multiple different
       | instantiations and simultaneous teams working on it.
       | 
       | 1. NASA STMD study with robotic assembly:
       | https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2020_Phase_...
       | 
       | 2. Article on the basics + decadal survey paper:
       | https://phys.org/news/2020-10-moon-seti.html
       | 
       | 3. Recent lecture on the "FARSIDE" mission concept at Caltech:
       | https://kiss.caltech.edu/lectures/2020_Hallinan.html
       | 
       | "There is some urgency in establishing a lunar far-side radio-
       | quiet reserve before we get the burgeoning problem we have in
       | Earth orbit with optical interference from communications
       | satellites. We are already concerned about the Chinese
       | communications satellites--so this needs to be a global consensus
       | now!" -- Dr. Pete Worden, the Chairman Breakthrough Prize
       | Foundation and the former director of NASA's Ames Research Center
        
       | hikerclimb wrote:
       | Hopefully this doesn't work
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | Arxiv paper linked at the bottom of the article:
       | 
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.02946
       | 
       | For the sort of telescope which they propose to use, they
       | reference:
       | 
       | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/588034
        
       | mnw21cam wrote:
       | > To study the first stars, it would stare at the same patch of
       | sky continuously, to collect as much light from them as possible
       | 
       | I hate to be the one to spoil the party, but the moon _rotates_.
       | The main problem with a rotating liquid mirror is that you don 't
       | get to choose the axis of the parabola, and that axis rotates as
       | the moon orbits the Earth.
       | 
       | You may be able to get a decent view of stars drifting through
       | the view, and with enough orbits you could build up a decent
       | picture, but that's different from staring "at the same patch of
       | sky continuously".
        
         | rthomas6 wrote:
         | Surely these career scientists have considered this problem
         | that you came up with seconds after reading a press release
         | about the idea.
        
         | deliveryboyman wrote:
         | The paper mentions this limitation. You really think a team of
         | scientists would not recognize this?
        
         | teraflop wrote:
         | As others have pointed out, this was considered. Here is the
         | relevant excerpt from the paper:
         | 
         | > To avoid an articulating mount, the telescope would be placed
         | at the lunar pole, constantly pointing at the zenith. [...] The
         | limit on exposure time is then given by the precession of the
         | moon, and is of the order of several days. This can only be
         | extended by the addition of some active tracking facility, for
         | example a moving prime focus platform.
        
       | shireboy wrote:
       | Why stop with one? Wouldn't a network of 3-4 spread across the
       | dark side of the moon and networked together be even better?
        
         | VMG wrote:
         | there is no dark side of the moon (except for a pretty cool
         | album)
        
           | Out_of_Characte wrote:
           | The moon is tidally locked to earth, that's what's called the
           | 'dark side' of the moon from earth's perspective.
        
           | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
           | As a matter of fact, it's all dark.
           | 
           | But seriously, the "dark side" of the moon is the side we can
           | never see from earth. It isn't literally dark so much as just
           | unseen. Consider similar usages like "dark energy" or "a shot
           | in the dark".
        
           | BitwiseFool wrote:
           | But there are craters near the poles where sun never shines
           | and I assume that's what they mean.
        
           | pdabbadabba wrote:
           | Isn't it true that the far side is darker? The near side will
           | be illuminated either by the sun directly or by light
           | bouncing off the earth. The far side is also, of course,
           | intermittently illuminated by the sun. But when it isn't,
           | wouldn't it be much darker?
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | Albedo of the rocks matters.
             | 
             | Almost all the lunar maria, which are very dark, are on the
             | near side. So, in those places, you get some extra light
             | from the Earth, but less of it is going to be reflected
             | from the ground towards your eyes.
             | 
             | The far side is mostly highlands, with albedo twice as
             | high.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | That is interesting, but does it matter? No atmosphere to
               | diffuse the light reflecting off the ground and in so
               | doing interfere with a telescope.
        
         | dmead wrote:
         | maybe you can't use Interferometry for this? if they can get
         | the oldest light with just one, theres no benefit to adding
         | more.
        
           | petschge wrote:
           | Interferometry at optical wavelength is very hard. Doing it
           | remotely is currently impossible.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | Are you putting them on the dark side to reduce light pollution
         | from Earth? It's going to complicate communication since you'll
         | need a relay to bounce signals off of when talking with it.
        
         | dharmab wrote:
         | You only need one because the moon moves. You can take multiple
         | measurements at different parts of the earth and moon orbit.
        
       | uCantCauseUCant wrote:
       | My biggest problem is with the outdated concept of optics used in
       | telescopes today. There is usually a large mirror and lenses
       | which should be redundant.
       | 
       | A NN trained on the physics simulation of a wobbling droplet of
       | e.g. mercury should be able to use this "predictable,
       | deterministic" partial mirror, to glimps everything needed to
       | see. If a ferro-fluid with electromagnetic actuators is used-the
       | shape of the mirror could be even modified by the observer NN in
       | realtime, to sharpen, or block parts of the mirror.
       | 
       | If this would be acceptable to the astronomic community - we
       | could mass produce Hubbles.
        
       | jsnider3 wrote:
       | I look forward to the Supremely Ultimate Large Telescope being
       | built on Ceres.
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | To The MAX!
        
         | NikolaeVarius wrote:
         | Solar system sized radio interferometry telescope please
        
       | DanielBMarkham wrote:
       | I have a space commercialization question.
       | 
       | SpaceX is purportedly at some point going to be able to put 100
       | tons in LEO for around 100M. I'll roughly assume with a second
       | launch full of fuel, a purchaser with the right gear could put
       | close to 100 tons on the lunar surface for 200M or so, once they
       | get the kinks out and the price down.
       | 
       | So why not just pre-purchase 20 of these for your favorite lunar
       | project, such as the ULT? If they bring prices down you get a
       | cool lunar base. If they don't, you don't pay. That much payload
       | delivered to the moon for $4B would be an incredible bargain, and
       | it also serves to further incentivize SpaceX.
       | 
       | I'm sure I have something about the economics wrong, but I don't
       | know what. Seems to me like we should be _very_ close to a lot of
       | back-burner space projects getting off the drawing boards.
       | 
       | What don't I understand?
        
         | 317070 wrote:
         | Imagine the same project (Lunar base? Moon telescope? Rocket
         | fuel harvester?) but in the Sahara. Now add the constraint that
         | you want it there, but without ever having any humans on site.
         | 
         | That is what needs addressing. That level of automatisation is
         | the hard part about space.
        
           | travisporter wrote:
           | I smell an XPrize!
        
           | vorpalhex wrote:
           | Is robotics (longterm) a solution here, and if so, what level
           | of autonomy do we need?
           | 
           | Latency between Earth and the Moon is just enough to make
           | realtime command a bit too rough to use I'd imagine, so I
           | imagine we'd need at least low level autonomous tasks of
           | "move resources from landing pad to storage" and "prepare
           | build site" with enough intelligence to detect when these
           | tasks hit an exception.
           | 
           | On top of that, I suspect we'd need enough robotic automation
           | to be able to build, maintain and run whatever the thing is.
           | That probably means several specialized robots (packing dirt
           | for a foundation, deploying construction pieces, a crane) as
           | well as some general robots for when things do go off script
           | (haul away a broken robot, right a fallen pylon, remove
           | debris).
           | 
           | Does this feel like something achievable in the next decade
           | or two? Are there large pieces we're missing?
        
             | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
             | Robotics in hard vacuum with abrasive soil, extreme
             | temperature fluctuations, and bullets raining down. We
             | don't deal with that on Earth.
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Some of the deep sea robots used on oil and gas rigs come
               | close IMHO.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Except for abrasive soil, all the challenges exist on the
               | orbit as well. And various satellites seem to cope.
               | 
               | If attrition of the robots turns out to be a factor, it
               | could still be solved like this: expect that an average
               | robot can survive 6 months on the lunar surface. So send
               | twenty of them to the remote base, build a cave for the
               | reserve robots and "burn" through the reserve slowly.
               | Every 4-5 years, send a human crew to replace or repair
               | the dead robots.
               | 
               | Can be done, the main question is the price tag.
        
           | retrac wrote:
           | Indeed. Slightly tangential, but when you start thinking
           | about a Mars colony -- but here on Earth -- a self-sufficient
           | hermetically-sealed environment somewhere underground -- it
           | really starts to drive the scope of the problem home.
           | 
           | We don't really know how to create a self-contained ecosystem
           | here on Earth, with everything on-hand. And the residents
           | won't even all die if someone accidentally pokes a hole in
           | the wall in the Antarctic prototype base.
        
             | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
             | Indeed. If we're going to be serious about extraterrestrial
             | colonies we should be workshopping our solutions right now
             | here at home where the problems and consequences are orders
             | of magnitude lesser.
        
             | tzs wrote:
             | One approach is to not try to make our colonies self-
             | sufficient. Instead send a study stream of cargo missions
             | to resupply them.
             | 
             | At first, that seems completely impractical due to the
             | enormous fuel costs but it turns out that if you are in
             | this for the long term there is a way around that.
             | 
             | Getting around the solar system is expensive if you are in
             | a hurry, but if you can take your time it can be cheap.
             | 
             | It is not just actual planetary bodies that a spacecraft
             | can orbit. It turns out there are also orbits around
             | Lagrange point. Some stable, some unstable.
             | 
             | If you want to get from planet A to planet B cheaply and
             | aren't in a hurry, what you can do is first put your cargo
             | container in an orbit around an appropriate A/Sun Lagrange
             | point, then nudge it into a carefully chosen unstable
             | orbit.
             | 
             | The unstable orbit gets farther and farther away from the
             | Lagrange point. At some point, it crosses an unstable B/Sun
             | Lagrange orbit, with a low enough delta-V between the two
             | that a nudge can move it from the former to the later.
             | 
             | It then gets closer and closer to that B/Sun Lagrange
             | point, until you reach a point where another nudge can move
             | it into the same orbit as B, just ahead or behind. Another
             | nudge gets it to B.
             | 
             | How long this takes depends on A and B, and it is all over
             | the place. Some combinations take a decade or two. Some
             | take hundreds of years. Some take thousands.
             | 
             | This then is a plan for a long term thinking civilization
             | to colonize their solar system (I'm going to assume that
             | they also call their planet "Earth" and a major moon of it
             | "Moon"). First, get yourself a serious presence in Earth
             | orbit and Moon orbit, and maybe also on the Moon. Anything
             | you can make in one of those places that is needed for your
             | deep space missions is a win because you won't have to get
             | it out of Earth's gravity well.
             | 
             | When you've got to the point that you can produce a steady
             | stream of unmanned space cargo containers loaded with non-
             | perishable items in Earth orbit or Moon orbit, you can
             | start moving them to appropriate Lagrange points, and
             | nudging them into appropriate unstable orbits for the
             | places you want to colonize.
             | 
             | It will take a long time, but when you have a good number
             | of shipments accumulated at a place you want to colonize,
             | you then send your colonists using the fast, expensive
             | route. Note that your colonists only need to take enough
             | supplies for the trip itself. (And they don't need to take
             | return fuel if not everyone is going to stay, as that can
             | be included in the pre-sent cargo).
             | 
             | Here are a few articles on this [1][2][3].
             | 
             | [1] http://www.gg.caltech.edu/~mwl/publications/papers/IPSA
             | ndOri...
             | 
             | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_Transport_
             | Netwo...
             | 
             | [3] http://www.dept.aoe.vt.edu/~sdross/papers/AmericanScien
             | tist2...
        
               | SlipperySlope wrote:
               | Phobos is the high ground. Get there and plant the flag.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | There is a saying that once you reach the orbit (here, on
               | Earth), you are halfway to anywhere.
               | 
               | Lifting objects from Earth's gravity well is expensive.
               | There would be a better case for building extensive
               | industrial base on the Moon, with its 0.16g gravity, and
               | supplying all the distant bases from there.
               | 
               | You can, for example, plausibly build a space elevator on
               | the Moon [1] with contemporary materials (even Kevlar
               | would suffice), thus lowering the price tag enormously.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_space_elevator
        
               | travisoneill1 wrote:
               | Doesn't really change anything because you are pretty
               | much out of the Earth's gravity well by the time you get
               | to the moon.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Sure it does -- you shuttle humans up to LEO at the
               | current SpaceX Dragon cost, and instead of docking to the
               | ISS they dock to the full-size replica of the Enterprise
               | that an eccentric billionaire 3D printed on 16 Psyche and
               | filled with space-grown food, plants, and spandex
               | costumes.
        
             | dwaltrip wrote:
             | To be fair, we have never had a reason to do so. It is a
             | hard problem, but it isn't impossible.
        
               | 0xffff2 wrote:
               | Of course we have reason to do so (to test whether we can
               | do it) and projects like Biosphere 2 suggest that while
               | it's not impossible, it is for the time being unsolved.
        
               | dwaltrip wrote:
               | I meant other than purposes related to space exploration
               | and general scientific research.
               | 
               | I fully support such activities.
        
               | michael1999 wrote:
               | Nobody has ever constructed an independent human-
               | compatible biosphere. We have 0 evidence that it is
               | possible at a practical scale. N=1.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | There was the Biosphere II project from the 90s, but it
             | ultimately failed.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2
        
               | hvdfhbj wrote:
               | Really more of a PR spectacle than a worthwhile
               | experiment.
               | 
               | Including humans seems to have caused most of the
               | problems there. If you actually wanted to experiment with
               | closed biological systems in a useful way then I'd
               | recommend doing a bunch of trials with a less
               | cantankerous species of large omnivorous mammal, like the
               | goat.
        
               | heymijo wrote:
               | _Biosphere 2 was originally meant to demonstrate the
               | viability of closed ecological systems to support and
               | maintain human life in outer space_ [0]
               | 
               | > _including humans seem to have caused most of the
               | problems_
               | 
               | I chuckled a bit at your reply hvd.
               | 
               | The hardest, seemingly intractable problems in the world
               | aren't engineering problems, they are human ones. If we
               | want to level up as a species those are the ones we will
               | need to figure out how to solve.
        
               | asimpletune wrote:
               | I don't know if I'd call it a total failure. There's a
               | pretty cool documentary about it an Apple TV+. I think if
               | they had communicated the caveats better and more
               | honestly then it would have been a success on the grounds
               | of being a baby step towards the direction of the more
               | ultimate case. I'd say the biggest success was showing
               | that even with all the resources on earth available, this
               | problem is non-trivial.
        
               | michael1999 wrote:
               | Low oxygen, low food, crashed ecosystem. Interesting
               | science, but a total failure at demonstrating the
               | feasibility of a closed ecosystem.
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | Run by Steve Bannon, of all people!
        
               | asimpletune wrote:
               | I believe bannon came in after the experiment had already
               | concluded.
        
               | andrewem wrote:
               | From reading the Wikipedia article, it sounds like "run
               | by" overstates his role, but wow nevertheless.
        
               | TLightful wrote:
               | "Steve Bannon left Biosphere 2 after two years, but his
               | departure was marked by an 'abuse of process' civil
               | lawsuit filed against Space Biosphere Ventures by the
               | former crew members who had broken in.[70] Leading
               | managers of Biosphere 2 from the original founding group
               | stated both abusive behaviour by Bannon and others, and
               | that the bankers' actual goal was to destroy the
               | experiment."
               | 
               | Shocking ...
        
               | lozaning wrote:
               | There was still some very cool engineering that went into
               | making what it was supposed to be. Check out this video
               | on the 'south lung' youtube.com/watch?v=Wind4fjbt_k
               | 
               | Because they didnt want air going in or out of the
               | biosphere they had to figure out a way to account for the
               | massive change in volume as the air temperature inside
               | changes between super hot days and cold nights, otherwise
               | you'd blow the windows out of the thing during the day.
        
         | cma wrote:
         | > If they don't, you don't pay.
         | 
         | Do you have to put money down like with Tesla Full Self
         | Driving?
        
         | azernik wrote:
         | More like 5+ launches to get it refueled - the payload of
         | Starship is MUCH smaller than its fuel load.
        
         | dpifke wrote:
         | Musk is claiming that Starship launches will be closer to $10M
         | than $100M:
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1328770804222468097
         | 
         | (I've heard some ad hominem attacks that this will never
         | happen, but haven't seen any actual evidence that it's
         | impossible.)
        
           | DanielBMarkham wrote:
           | This continues to befuddle me.
           | 
           | So let's assume Musk nails it and can do this for $10M.
           | Instead of my 20, imagine 200 100-ton landings of cargo on
           | the moon, say over the period of ten years.
           | 
           | Instead of everybody sitting on Earth, trying to design-
           | session-out the perfect lunar base, why not just keep
           | regularly-delivering supplies, then learn how to build a
           | lunar base while on the moon, figuring it out as you go?
           | After all, just like SpaceX, we're not trying to build _a_
           | lunar base. We 're trying to build a _factory for
           | constructing lunar bases_ , eventually hundreds of them.
           | Solving the modular/generic problem is what we want to do,
           | not build another Space Shuttle.
           | 
           | Perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems like most of the people here,
           | indeed most of the aerospace industry, naturally prefer these
           | big, lumbering, paperwork-heavy, long-lasting bureaucratic
           | programs. But without enough regularly-arriving supplies, why
           | try to solve something up-front, all-at-once, and perhaps
           | years or decades ahead of time when you can just figure out
           | the bare minimum of things you need just as you need them?
           | 
           | But like I said, I'm probably missing something. I've been
           | saying for 20+ years that our real problem is cost-to-LEO.
           | Now that we're just barely beginning to address that, the
           | next problem very well may likely be changing the way we
           | think of large space-based programs. That could very well end
           | up being a bigger problem than cost over the long run.
           | 
           | ADD: Seems to me that the Starship is a solution to
           | delivering _humans_ to space. We need reusable heat shields,
           | booster packs, and payload capsules, along with an Earth-
           | based mass-driver, to truly drive down cargo rates another
           | 100x. At that point we 'll begin seriously talking about
           | becoming a space-faring species.
        
         | peterpost2 wrote:
         | The cost of rocket launches is not the largest part of creating
         | a lunar base, designing and manufactoring all the landers,
         | base, electronics, software etc. is the larger part of it.
         | 
         | If I recall correctly, for the apollo program about 30% was for
         | the launch vehicle.
        
           | ethbr0 wrote:
           | It seems like this would be somewhat of an interrelated
           | valuation.
           | 
           | If launch costs decrease by an order of magnitude,
           | reliability of payload can be relaxed, and therefore costs of
           | payload engineering and manufacture decrease.
        
             | m4rtink wrote:
             | If mass reduction is no longer super critical, you can use
             | heavier but cheaper materials that provide the needed
             | strength.
             | 
             | There could be other knock off effect of cheaper and more
             | frequent space launch - you can send multiple versions and
             | see which works the best, ship prototypes back for
             | extensive evaluation, send robots or people to fix broken
             | things.
             | 
             | A lot of things are done differently if you have just a
             | couple super expensive shots per decade & everything needs
             | to work without external help at the first time.
        
         | NickM wrote:
         | I would assume engineering and building one of these things is
         | non-trivial, and there may also be certain aspects tailored to
         | the specific launch vehicle, so it's not like as soon as SpaceX
         | proves they can do what they plan to do that you can just pop a
         | telescope on a rocket and go.
        
           | _Microft wrote:
           | Launch providers list the characteristics of their vehicle
           | and the customer has to ensure to stay within the
           | constraints.
           | 
           | SpaceX is special (or used to be special, maybe others have
           | followed suit by now?) in that they make this information
           | public. See here what loads, accelerations or vibrations the
           | payload has to withstand during a launch on a Falcon 9 or
           | Falcon Heavy launch vehicle:
           | 
           | https://www.spacex.com/media/Falcon_Users_Guide_082020.pdf#p.
           | ..
        
       | remote_phone wrote:
       | They missed such a good opportunity to call it the "Unearthly
       | Large Telescope"!
        
         | ChuckMcM wrote:
         | Or simply the BFT, but I expect it will be something "Lunar
         | Telescope" or something "Lunar Observatory" (which implies
         | people present as I recall)
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | I think it would be a nice idea to have several more normal
       | telescopes on the moon with an internet site that would allow you
       | to rent time and operate them remotely somehow. And maybe one or
       | two really big visible light ones.
       | 
       | This would theoretically provide a superior level of clarity
       | versus ground telescopes. And it would allow for viewing of the
       | earth.
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | There is already one in place:
         | https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28323-china-has-had-a...
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e_3#Lunar-based_ultrav...
         | 
         | Quite a small one, but first of its kind. :)
        
       | csunbird wrote:
       | Forgive me for my ignorance, since my knowledge of advanced
       | physics and orbital mechanics are limited to KSP, can't we build
       | something like this on orbit, thus saving a lot of headache from
       | landing and constructing on the moon?
       | 
       | A stable polar orbit is easier to get to and return from the
       | moon.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | rtkwe wrote:
         | The core of it is a liquid mirror which is harder to do in
         | space because to shape it into a parabola you need spin and a
         | down which would require constant acceleration since it want's
         | to look at a single point in space. Also long duration attitude
         | holding is harder in space than it is on the ground.
         | 
         | If we wanted to build something similar in space it's
         | essentially a 5x larger James Webb Space Telescope which is
         | having some trouble last I heard with it's folding mechanism so
         | building one 5 times larger to fit into a faring is a big task.
        
           | abecedarius wrote:
           | OTOH in zero g a mirror needn't support its own weight. A
           | shade would eliminate temperature fluctuation. Naively I'd
           | expect it should be practical for a very large, very
           | lightweight telescope mirror to be built in situ in space
           | instead of trying to launch and unfold one built on Earth.
           | 
           | I guess the big problem for that right now is that for humans
           | to do the building, it'd have to be in low orbit, a less-
           | than-ideal environment for a long-lived scientific
           | instrument. (Just kibbitzing, am not a rocket scientist.)
        
             | handol wrote:
             | I expect it would be much harder to put a mirror factory in
             | orbit than a mirror.
        
             | csunbird wrote:
             | I mean the construction can be done on low earth orbit,
             | then the satellite telescope can do a transfer to a higher
             | orbit. Again, forgive my ignorance :)
        
             | rtkwe wrote:
             | We've only built a tiny number of things in orbit and
             | haven't yet built something that then gets sent off
             | somewhere like a shipyard. It's all been stations that are
             | then left basically where they [0] are so we don't really
             | have the experience of how to do that yet. Also that takes
             | a long time because it's just slow to move around in space.
             | 
             | It does need to support it's own mass through during
             | maneuvering and pointing operations as well so it can't be
             | completely flimsy. Also you'd want to get further from the
             | earth to avoid all that drag from a huge mirror in LEO.
             | 
             | [0] Beyond periodic small orbit boosting burns
        
               | abecedarius wrote:
               | Pointing needn't be at all quick, as long as you're not
               | trying to catch a gamma-ray burst in the act or the like.
               | Agreed about the badness of LEO.
               | 
               | Another problem: a very large mirror is a significant
               | target for micrometeoroids. It'd need to be made able to
               | keep going after losing little patches.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | Fumtumi wrote:
         | We are already doing this with James Webb Space Telescope. That
         | one will be further away from sun than earth and moon.
        
           | NikolaeVarius wrote:
           | JWST is not being assembled in space
        
             | Fumtumi wrote:
             | yeah my fault; I interpreted the question as 'hey sounds
             | difficult to do that, can't we make it easier?' in sense of
             | the person asking without knowing the JWST exists.
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | Normally liquid mirror telescopes depend on having some amount
         | of gravity to work correctly (the liquid needs to pool in a
         | certain way). There's workarounds to do this in space but it
         | gets really complicated.
         | 
         | Other issues with space based telescopes:
         | 
         | They need fuel + thrusters to go where you want them to be (or
         | just to maintain their orbit!)
         | 
         | Heat dissipation is a big problem. Being able to use the whole
         | moon as a thermal flywheel could help out a lot. In space you
         | can use things like cryocoolers to regulate temps, but they
         | cause vibrations which can be problematic if you need your
         | telescope to remain steady. If this requires refrigeration, you
         | can put the vibrating parts far enough away from the telescope
         | that they don't move it. Putting the thing in a crater probably
         | helps regulate temps too (less direct sun)
         | 
         | Humanity in general is better at building and maintaining
         | things on solid ground. If you drop a bolt on the moon, you
         | lean over and pick it up. If you drop a bolt in orbit, you have
         | to worry about it damaging your spacecraft at the next
         | conjunction.
        
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