[HN Gopher] Fleeing New Yorkers resulted in an estimated $34B in... ___________________________________________________________________ Fleeing New Yorkers resulted in an estimated $34B in lost income Author : theBashShell Score : 70 points Date : 2020-12-15 22:02 UTC (58 minutes ago) (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com) | Merman_Mike wrote: | I permanently left NYC this year. | | The combination of high taxes, corruption, and incompetence | really wear on you after a while. | | I'm all for high taxes in service of a strong social safety net | and a well-run, modern city. I am happy to pay them. But I can't | help but feel that my taxes were being outright stolen and | squandered in this city. | jokethrowaway wrote: | That's an interesting point of view Don't you think it's | exactly the high taxes that give space for corruption and | incompetence? | | Once you accumulate a large pool of money (especially if it's | someone else money), the larger the pool, the easier it is to | waste it. | | We see it with governments, big tech companies, VC funded | startups, even when pooling money for a road trip with friends. | | I think the enemy is human nature and centralisation, not | specific malicious individuals | medium_burrito wrote: | Everything gives room for corruption and incompetence. The | problem is the US has some of the most incompetent government | on a local level in the developed world. Part of it is | American individualism, part of it is the Republican party | starving the beast, part of it is the government as a giant | jobs program. | | There is no reason we cannot have competent civil servants, | long term planning, clean cities, etc. | | I'm completely serious when I say we should just outsource | everything on the county level and lower to the Swiss or | Dutch. | solidsnack9000 wrote: | The "lost income" is more than 485000 USD per person? | | _About 3.57 million people left New York City this year between | Jan. 1 and Dec. 7 ... Some 3.5 million people earning lower | average incomes moved into the city during that same period, the | report showed. | | [...] | | In Tribeca, a wealthy neighborhood in downtown Manhattan, | residents who left this year earned an average income of about | $140,000, Walle said. The typical person moving into the | neighborhood earned an average $82,000, he said._ | blackrock wrote: | How will SpaceX's Starlink increase the trend to work-from-home | or do remote work? | | If you can develop software, or write your blog, from a remote | island, at the edge of a (dormant) volcano (aka: extreme | remoters), then why not? Or from any rural farmland area of the | country. | | Just video call into your daily Zoom Standup Meeting. | | How's the latency of it? | ajsnigrutin wrote: | Louis Rossman said it in many of his recent videos.... new york | has everything, but also costs alot. You have cinemas, broadway, | restaurants, everything.... and you pay for that privilige. | | Now, when all that is closed, you have only the "bad" parts (the | homeless, crime, noise, bad smells... all that with a "premium | price")... so, why stay? | | Poor people have no jobs, have to move out.... rich people don't | have anything to do there, and move out because they can. | TuringNYC wrote: | NYC is costly, but not as costly as people think. The lifestyle | is also different. | | 1. Most of my life in NY (pre children), we had no car, no car | insurance, no parking, and rare taxis (and before our current | mayor, subways worked very, very well, I rarely considered | taxis.) | | 2. Property taxes are comparatively low to other states | | 3. Access to culture is widespread and cheaper than people | think -- there are subsidized tickets for students, etc. | Museums are plentiful and often free. Libraries are literally | everywhere. | | 4. Access to jobs is great and you dont crush your soul with | hour-long drives. And when you lose/change your job, your next | job is also often in the city center, so you dont have to move | homes. | | I live in DC suburbs now and we have one car. It is hard | getting places w/o a car and the train system is good but does | not cover as much of the metro as one wishes, and there are | last mile issues. Property taxes are way, way higher both both | homes and other property (e.g., $800/yr on my Kia minivan), but | there isnt a city income tax. | saiya-jin wrote: | Not that I disagree much, apart from one thing - that places | like NY have 'everything'. If you like nature, mountains, | adrenaline sports, weekend adventures without crazy commute, | then NY has none. | | Irrelevant to some, but folks like me couldn't be bothered to | even consider it even if my take home salary went 10x. | pen2l wrote: | Not knocking on you here, just really genuinely confused why | you'd cite Louis Rossman of all people on earth for his | thoughts on places to live. But maybe I'm not in on something | here? | stefan_ wrote: | But you don't pay for these things. You pay for a class of | ancient benefactors of one huge ponzi scheme. | kepler1 wrote: | Even worse for San Francisco. Basically just "restaurants" and | an easy getaway to outdoors. And worse on all the other fronts | as well (crime, homeless, cost of living, etc). | | How well a city takes care of these issues in the good times | and has rational/sensible policies sets it up for how it will | do in bad times. | siquick wrote: | > Even worse for San Francisco. Basically just "restaurants" | and an easy getaway to outdoors. | | This wasn't my experience in San Francisco when I visited in | 2016 - I saw some of the best live music in small bars I've | ever heard, went to a couple of awesome free outdoor events, | record shopping was quality, just walking around an area like | Mission I came across a lot of interesting cafes, shops, | bars, street art, and people. | | I was visiting from Melbourne, Australia - supposed live | music capital of the world, ranked worlds most liveable city, | and it has a lot of the above - and San Francisco felt pretty | exciting with a lot to do. | chickenpotpie wrote: | Another case of lower income groups responding strongly to | financial incentives and higher income groups responding to | quality of life incentives. Lower income renters see a discount | to be had, higher income renters see an opportunity to get higher | quality housing with more space. | hn_throwaway_99 wrote: | I've been seeing more of these types of stories with a line like | this: | | > About 3.57 million people left New York City this year between | Jan. 1 and Dec. 7, according to Unacast, which analyzed | anonymized cell phone location data. | | Sorry, but I don't really trust the "anonymized" very much. Why | should some company I've never heard of have access to my cell | phone location data in the first place. | spoonjim wrote: | > Sorry, but I don't really trust the "anonymized" very much. | Why should some company I've never heard of have access to my | cell phone location data in the first place. | | Not sure how the second follows from the first. There _is_ a | company you 've never heard of which access to your cell phone | location data. In fact, hundreds, and they buy and sell them in | commodity marketplaces just like corn or pork bellies. They | sell the data with your name attached for one price, and as | anonymized aggregates for a much lower price. | | Unacast is just saying that they bought the cheaper anonymized | version for the purpose of this analysis. Whether the data are | real or not is another matter altogether. | sneak wrote: | > _Sorry, but I don 't really trust the "anonymized" very much. | Why should some company I've never heard of have access to my | cell phone location data in the first place._ | | If you don't have location services turned off on your phone, | chances are they have access to it because you gave it to them | (via an app), or gave it to someone who gave it to them. | jokethrowaway wrote: | I'm pretty sure the study refers to the location of the | repeater which talks to your phone, so most likely no | permission needed | db48x wrote: | Your cell phone company sells it to whoever wants it. | sneak wrote: | They're supposed to have stopped, but I'm not sure I believe | it. | | https://www.wired.com/story/fcc-fines-wireless-companies- | sel... | iso8859-1 wrote: | The fact that you don't like it, does not mean that there are | not people with access to IMEI numbers. Actually, it would be | weird if there wasn't since it could be useful for research | like this. | | So why do you not trust it? You're only explaining how you | disagree. | Karawebnetwork wrote: | It is anonymized in the sense that they can't write your name | into a search feature and find your location history. | | However, they could likely ask to buy the all data for "57 | years old males born in february with a history of calling to | Alaska every 5 days" and single you out. | Shacklz wrote: | I heard a talk once from some guy working for a company who | analyzes this data (it had something to do with | transportation of people; where it would be most efficient to | have a new bus route and such), some of the regulations are | actually rather interesting (Europe). E.g., location-specific | data is not allowed to be sold if the amount of data points | is below a given threshold, to avoid de-anonymization | scenarios such as the one you have mentioned. Granted, I have | no idea how well the regulations actually work, but it did | sound as if quite a bit of thought went into it. | | Thinking about this, I wonder if companies providing | smartphone apps with invasive tracking are upheld to the same | standards... | sna1l wrote: | https://www.wired.com/2013/03/anonymous-phone-location-data/ | hn_throwaway_99 wrote: | Thanks, this is exactly what I was thinking about, glad | someone did an actual study. | economusty wrote: | Remember which political party runs the city. | j2bax wrote: | While we are at it, lets remember which political party runs | the areas that are most dependent on the government. | | Source: https://wallethub.com/edu/most-independent- | states/36426#main... | trident1000 wrote: | Does this take into account federal loans and grants for | infrastructure spending which is higher in urban areas? | Probably not. Does it take into account that many left | leaning states like NJ have completely bankrupt pension | systems that will need to be rescued at the federal level? | Probably not. Also looks like NY scores 38th on gov | dependency out of 50 which isnt exactly great. And going back | to national highway system assistance, Cali has got to be #1 | in receiving federal funds. | rednerrus wrote: | Looks like lots of places that grow the food you eat. | oh_sigh wrote: | That doesn't control for who benefits from the money spent. | For example, Alaska is billed for the early warning and radar | systems to detect Russian ICBMs, but Alaskans don't really | benefit from it because Russia would never bomb Alaska, and | most of the jobs go to people shipped in from the lower 48 | states, not Alaskans. | | Likewise, Nebraskan farmers look like they're on the dole | with the corn subsidies, but the other 49 states benefit from | lower and stable corn prices, so it isn't clear why Nebraska | would get all the costs accounted to them when everyone | benefits from it. | smt88 wrote: | "[Other place] is better than New York during a pandemic | lockdown" is not a ringing endorsement of [other place]. | | It will be interesting to see what happens to NYC's population | after the pandemic. I suspect most of the change will have been | temporary. | | Also, many people fleeing northern cities and California are | ending up in Southern cities, which are (spoiler alert) run by | the same party. | gnusty_gnurc wrote: | Precisely - if cities with overwhelmingly progressive | constituencies can't get their own house in order - what's the | chance that a country be different? | EdwardDiego wrote: | /me looks at the USA | | I don't think the overwhelmingly... regressive? conservative | government you've been running has done overly well either. | gnusty_gnurc wrote: | The federal government is conservative? | | Best measure of the size of government is budget, and | conservatism values small government. There is nothing | conservative about a staggering rise in the spending of | federal government. | | Neither are any of the procedural changes to congress, lack | of deliberation or expansion of the powers of the executive | branch. | chickenpotpie wrote: | Remember what the difference between causation and correlation | is. | macinjosh wrote: | Correlation != Causation does not apply when the system is | under the control of single entity. So many of these | governments have been run by the same party for decades on | end. If these long-term rulers didn't cause the bad outcomes | from the time of their reign that only means they were | completely ineffective. Why should ineffective government be | kept around? | | It is plain stupid to not hold elected leaders responsible | for actual outcomes produced under their watch. | sqrt17 wrote: | How about: US citizens saved $34B by not having to stay in the | highest COL areas? | | Why should we sympathize with a minority of rent-seekers? | ABCLAW wrote: | >Why should we sympathize with a minority of rent-seekers? | | I don't really think this is about sympathizing with rent- | seekers. | | Cities invest in infrastructure to cover anticipated service | delivery well before it's due, and the financing for doing so | is a multi-decade affair. Before you complain, this includes | things like providing running water, roads that are paved, etc. | Really core essential pieces of making a city work. | | If your tax base moves to suburbs or just plain leaves the | city, the city is still on the hook for those payments, so it | results in dramatically cut services or increased taxes on | residents. | | The flight of some of the tax base incentivizes the flight of | many, resulting in further cuts to maintenance contracts, | preventative work, and the general crumbling of infrastructure. | Sometimes this can be gracefully managed by planned downsizing | and renegotiating deals with vendors and financiers. In other | cases, this doesn't occur and the city simply... dies. While | the US is very young and doesn't have many large examples of | this, Flint and Detroit come to mind. | melling wrote: | 70,000 in a city of 8 million. | | It's less than 1% of the population. | | The infrastructure needs don't change much. | | How much of the tax burden did those people support? | CalRobert wrote: | "While the US is very young ".... | | What's that? By what measure? It's one of the oldest | continuous governments out there. | neckardt wrote: | The government may be one of the older ones, but many | cities are far, far older. Many cities in Europe have been | around for thousands of years. | pc86 wrote: | With the same tax structures they have now? | | Big shifts in governance tend to reset things like | municipal bonds and the like. | bluedino wrote: | >> While the US is very young and doesn't have many large | examples of this, Flint and Detroit come to mind. | | You mean "most of the rust belt" | [deleted] | gnicholas wrote: | The article was ambiguous about what the $34B was a measure of | (income of the departing residents or the tax income generated | by the income of the departing residents). | | But the underlying paper makes it clear that it's the former. | So it's not accurate to say "US citizens saved $34B...". That | was their aggregate income, which is still subject to the same | federal taxes no matter where in the US they moved. They would | have saved on state and local taxes, depending on the rates of | their new home jurisdictions. | CydeWeys wrote: | The average New Yorker has a mere one-third of the carbon | emissions as the average American. This is really bad for the | climate overall. Dense city living is very efficient; living in | the suburbs and driving everywhere is not. NYC is the densest | city we have. | pc86 wrote: | I'm not sure there are enough NYers for this to noticeably | impact the carbon emissions of the eastern seaboard, let | alone the world as a whole. | threatofrain wrote: | We don't have to sympathize with rent-seekers necessarily, but | I would wonder if the rest of the city can move as adaptively | to wherever opportunity beckons, and whether NY can downscale | their city services accordingly. | toomuchtodo wrote: | It serves as a cautionary tale when your budget isn't as | agile as those who make up the tax base. | iratewizard wrote: | In a lot of ways, city infrastructure investment is a ponzi | scheme with one layer of abstraction. | Exmoor wrote: | The most eye-raising part of this data to me is that 3.5 million | people apparently decided 2020 was the perfect year to move to | New York. Even if I thought NYC was the place I wanted to live | more than anywhere else, I would still heavily consider delaying | that move in light of the current health and economic situation. | The information on who those people are would be interesting to | me. | ruddct wrote: | > About 3.57 million people left New York City this year between | Jan. 1 and Dec. 7, according to Unacast, which analyzed | anonymized cell phone location data. Some 3.5 million people | earning lower average incomes moved into the city during that | same period, the report showed. | | Uhhh I'd take this with a HEAVY grain of salt, given that it's | based off of anonymized cell phone location data. Were this true, | 40% of NYC's population has turned over in the past year, which | feels like absolute nonsense from anecdotal experience. | CydeWeys wrote: | It's absolute nonsense from my anecdotal experience here in NYC | as well. I don't even see how it's remotely possible for a full | 40% of NYC's population to have turned over in the span of 9 | months. New lease signings are _down_ , not up many hundreds of | percentage points! Every single thing that would have to be | true for this to be true as well, isn't. It's bad methodology | from one company trying to get its name in the news and then a | media outlet running an uncritical article using this as fact. | | We just had an election. Go look at the voter rolls and who | actually voted, and for the absentee ballots, where the | absentee ballots were sent. There's no way in hell 40% of the | voter rolls have turned over since the last time we held an | election. The data is out there to easily disprove this | ridiculous notion. | throwaway2245 wrote: | > Go look at the voter rolls | | I used to do this, and can report the area of London that I | lived in turned over 25% of its (voting) residents in a 12 | month period: that is, in normal times! | | Non-voters are likely to turn over even quicker than that. | john_moscow wrote: | I think, this highlights a bigger problem. You can very roughly | split people's mindsets into 2 groups: | | * Long-termers. They don't mind delayed gratification. They like | planning and saving for the future. Most have complex multi-year | degrees or have business experience. They are generally happy | with life and want to teach their ways to their kids. What they | want from the political environment is a clear set of rules (e.g. | taxes, laws backed by a truly independent court system) with | minimum interference in their lives. | | * Short-termers. They prefer instant gratification. They gather | credit card debts on impulsive purchases. They live here and now | don't want the headache of long-term planning. They are usually | less happy with life and expect politicians to appeal to their | emotions. Recognize them through identity gestures, say great | words, show attention. | | Long-termers tend to earn more, except something in our society | changed, and they are quickly becoming a dying breed. So many new | social policies, especially in high-density areas, are targeting | short-termers and blaming long-termers for inequity. Quite | predictably, they are leaving these areas, driving the median | income lower. | | But, what's even more alarming, the same trend is happening all | over the West - the middle class of happy independent thinkers | satisfied with life, is vanishing, replaced by unhappy low- | earners driven by divisive tribal instincts. | russh wrote: | That's a pretty slow start, Hopefully it will ramp up quickly. | webkike wrote: | Why hopefully? | Firebrand wrote: | 3.57 million people left New York City this year to live out | their lives in comfort someplace else, and then 3.5 million | people hungry for opportunity arrived to take their place. I hope | to see similar results in San Francisco. | DeonPenny wrote: | Theres not an infinite amount of rich and successful people 1% | of NYC population pays 50% of taxes. These people aren't | replaceable. | yurielt wrote: | Rich people are repleaceable not in the short term but they | are very much repleaceable specially rent seekers and those | whose earnings come only from owning which describes most of | the non financial and some of the financial elite of the city | CydeWeys wrote: | There's no way this is correct. I live in NYC and this would | represent a turn-over of nearly half of our population. It's | simply not true. The study is wrong: | | > About 3.57 million people left New York City this year | between Jan. 1 and Dec. 7, according to Unacast, which analyzed | anonymized cell phone location data. Some 3.5 million people | earning lower average incomes moved into the city during that | same period, the report showed. | | Questionable methodology that clearly yielded incorrect | results. | johnnyb9 wrote: | The top 1% of earners pay 40% of New York City's income tax. | The real question is how will NYC cope with the decreased tax | base. | criddell wrote: | Does it cost more per capita to run NYC than it does smaller | cities like Austin? | foota wrote: | Maybe not to run, but the capital investment is probably | higher. As well as things like subways, which there isn't | one of in Austin. | abernard1 wrote: | Education, healthcare, and public employees are almost | always the largest expenses. | | For instance, in CA, only about $100M a year out of the | $100 _billion_ a year budget is spent on transportation | [1]. | | Because of prop 98 in CA, a _minimum_ of 40% of the | budget has to go to education [2]. | | In NY, it's only 4% spent on transportation [3]. | | [1] https://ballotpedia.org/Fact_check/California%27s_sta | te_budg... | | [2] https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_98,_Ma | ndatory... | | [3] https://openbudget.ny.gov/overview.html | snissn wrote: | i tried to negotiate being month to month at my manhattan apt at | the same rate and my land lord wouldn't accommodate me. Now the | apt has been unrented for a few months and they're asking for a | 10% drop in rent and probably won't get it for a long long time. | happily commenting from hawaii | raverbashing wrote: | Real estate, being a straightforward investment attracts those | who couldn't be making more money at pretty much any other type | of investment. | | Hence you get the most clueless people managing the properties. | [deleted] | wdb wrote: | Probably it's better to write it off as a loss than lower the | rent | ed25519FUUU wrote: | The absence of income is not a "loss", certainly not a | taxable one. This is not how landlords make money. | pc86 wrote: | The landlord's paying for the building no matter what, so | it's possible that depending on how it's leveraged and | their income overall, they'd rather lose money and get a | reduction in taxable income than break even with lowered | rent. | thebean11 wrote: | Why? | alliao wrote: | how'd you compare with your cost of living overall? | Dig1t wrote: | Wow, good for you, that is awesome. | jere wrote: | >In Tribeca, a wealthy neighborhood in downtown Manhattan, | residents who left this year earned an average income of about | $140,000, Walle said. The typical person moving into the | neighborhood earned an average $82,000, he said. | | I was going to ask if we might call this "de-gentrification" and | if that's a good thing, right? I'm sitting here in disbelief | after a quick search reveals that the actual average income is | $879,000. So now I'm thinking those numbers above don't mean much | of anything. | | https://www.businessinsider.com/tribeca-new-york-city-riches... | blackrock wrote: | > residents who left this year earned an average income of | about $140,000 | | Averages tend to mask the true reality. | | If a corporate executive makes $10 million dollars a year. And | the next 100 people makes $100,000 a year. Then the total is | $20 million dollars. | | When you divide this by 101, you get an average of $198,000. | Which is nearly double what the normal person in this example | earns. | | The better metric is to use the median salary. Which in this | example is $100,000. And the executive's salary is the outlier. | | Then again, most executives are paid in tax deferred stock | options. And they cash out for a gold pot after a few years. | trident5000 wrote: | Mean is not the same as median. Billionaires drag the mean | average up but not the median average. Most people in that area | are not earning almost 1 million even though it is pricey. | jfengel wrote: | What you're calling de-gentrification isn't really the opposite | of gentrification. Gentrification is the destruction of long- | standing neighborhoods and the displacement of poor people, who | may have no good place to go and lose their support structures. | Often, those poor people rent their homes/apartments, and so | they don't benefit from the increase in prices. Their rent just | goes up until they have to leave. | | Rich people fleeing doesn't bring them back. Whatever they | suffered in displacement is just sunk. In the very long term it | may form part of a new cycle of gentrification, but only after | the neighborhood has lost a lot of its old value and is usually | accompanied by the kinds of desperation that poverty causes. | | So it's not a good thing -- though you're right that this study | is so dubious that it may not even really be an issue. | mikestew wrote: | _I 'm sitting here in disbelief after a quick search reveals | that the actual average income is $879,000._ | | I don't live anywhere near NYC, and probably haven't visited | more than a half dozen times, and even I know that $140K/year | isn't getting you into Tribeca these days (granted, I | occasionally glance at the NYT real estate section). I would | expect someone covering that beat to be able to do that gut- | check and, I dunno, maybe double-check those numbers. | vrperson wrote: | de-gentrification is a good thing if you don't like cupcakes | and cafes and nice restaurants and nice shops. | yurielt wrote: | ANd if you like payable rent non obnoxious hipsters and their | shitty music, POC and people that have politics informed by | more than buzzfeed | hikerclimb wrote: | Nice | pushcx wrote: | Or in context, they estimate NYC lost a net 0.8% of its residents | and the average income of the incoming and outgoing cohorts | differ by -$8,055/y. It multiplies to a big dollar figure because | NYC is big and rich. | | The original content marketing: https://global- | uploads.webflow.com/5dc3e2af6a906d9cc232e1bc/... | | It explains that they're extrapolating from three NYC | neighborhoods (Astoria, Tribeca, and Williamsburg). I'm not an | NYC expert and I'm not going to research these claims further, | but I think those are quite well-off neighborhoods and not likely | representative of NYC in terms of income or pandemic mobility. | | This article feels like Reuters lightly rewrote an ad for | Unacast. | octoberfranklin wrote: | But... but... but... muh urbanism! | popup21 wrote: | +1 Stay woke, go broke | ralusek wrote: | There is a reason that the people with the most aggressive social | policies tend to also be the least in favor of federalism/local | politics, because of this exact problem: people will just leave. | | If your system makes life worse for a certain group of people, | you either need to prevent that group from leaving altogether, or | ensure that there is no place that they can go to. If you iterate | this to the logical conclusion, you end up with something like | "globalism." | | In this particular case, this is mostly to do with not wanting to | live in places with strict lockdown policies, high rates of | homelessness and criminality, while simultaneously paying much | more in taxes and living expenses, and seeing few of the benefits | of being in an urban hub while doing it. | | But my point stands: don't forget how quickly people will be | willing to upend their lives at the very moment their existence | is sufficiently worse than it would be elsewhere. And when you | target the wealthy, you target the people most capable of moving | anywhere else. | gltchkrft wrote: | What ever happened to making the place attractive so people | actually choose to live there ? | | You are talking about forcing people into situations that they | are unhappy with, like it's normal or ethical. | | The people who pay for the infrastructure and services are free | to leave to more attractive places when they feel like they are | being exploited. It's the city's responsibility to manage | itself in a way that keeps residents satisfied. If the | residents feel like they are getting the short end of the | stick, they are right to leave and many will do so. Then you | are left with those who had no choice and good luck getting | them to fund your bloated, inefficient and needless projects. | | The policy makers are in charge of just that, making policy. | The residents have little control over that, but they do | control where they live. | tqi wrote: | > There is a reason that the people with the most aggressive | social policies tend to also be the least in favor of | federalism/local politics, because of this exact problem: | people will just leave. | | I don't think that has anything to do with it. Whether people | are in favor of or against local politics is mostly based on | whether or not they share the same opinions as their local | politicians. For example, look at the fight over California | Emission standards. People just want to have things their way - | everything else is just hot air and posturing. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2020-12-15 23:00 UTC)