[HN Gopher] Electric vehicles close to 'tipping point' of mass a... ___________________________________________________________________ Electric vehicles close to 'tipping point' of mass adoption Author : xps Score : 87 points Date : 2021-01-22 15:58 UTC (7 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com) | u678u wrote: | Europe has a big advantage that distances are closer and cars are | smaller and newer. USA still will be a long long time. My apt | building has 500 cars and zero electrical outlets. | paganel wrote: | One of Europe's biggest disadvantages is that a larger | proportion of people live in apartment blocks and the like | (compared to the US, anyways), so no easy way for those people | to charge their EVs over night (I'm an European living in such | a building myself). | strict9 wrote: | I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for | a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street | parking. | | Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle | ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated | parking. | r00fus wrote: | Might be based on something like this: | https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siemens-converts-all-lamp-po... | rasz wrote: | unguarded $100 worth of charging cable dangling from every | street post? what could possibly go wrong? | jeofken wrote: | The cable locks to both your car and the charging pole, at | least where I live | throw0101a wrote: | Reasonable concern, though: | | 1. If every car has one, they become a commodity, so how | much value will they actually end up having? | | 2. There are locking cables available: | | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaEhBjt1ls | jeofken wrote: | In Copenhagen there are charging poles in a lot of places, | also in the inner city. They're reserved for EVs. For this | reason, it's very easy to find parking with a EV and leave | with a full tank. | | You bring your own cable which costs $120 (+25% VAT), which | is locked to the car and the charging pole, so it can't be | stolen without being ruined. | gregkerzhner wrote: | This. Curios to hear about people's experiences owning an EV | without access to a charger at home. | dghlsakjg wrote: | Obviously everyone's use case is different. | | The way I would frame it is this: 1. Your car has x range. | Let's say 200 mi. or 321 km. And takes 1 hr. to charge. (Just | for reference, my current car gets refilled with gas every | 400 km. and takes 10ish minutes to do the task). | | 2. How long does it take you to travel that range in everyday | life. For me, it would take about 2 weeks. But lets assume | that its winter or I'm driving a lot and my time is cut in | half, so I need a full charge every week. | | 3. Now I ask myself if there is anywhere in my driving | schedule where I consistently spend about an hour in a place | where there are chargers. The answer is, of course, I might | go to Costco, the grocery store, home depot and the library | In the course of a week. Of course partial charging is also | an option, so two 30 min stays at any of the above also | solves the issue. | | So I'm covered for my average use case if charging at home | isn't an option. | | It is a smart question to ask, but it is actually pretty easy | to answer if you think it through. Obviously there are a | million and one use cases for a personal vehicle, but me and | all my friends would be fine. | | Even thinking back over the past year, including lots of | outdoor activities into the backcountry in Canada, I have a | hard time thinking of more than one trip that would have been | different with an electric car (towing on backroads in the | mountains. A corner case if ever there was one). | | My theory is that charging infrastructure will all of a | sudden become as necessary a commodity as parking. A | restaurant that has a few chargers in the parking lot will | attract more business, and I wouldn't be surprised if it also | became a revenue stream as well. | random5634 wrote: | I looked into this very closely and opted against it. | traveler01 wrote: | Unless they get better charging times, a total nightmare. | bfrog wrote: | I can't wait for my ICE vehicle to be good for recycling only. | One day, until then I barely drive anyways, so it'll probably | last me another 15 years. | lastofthemojito wrote: | I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes | up. | | New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average | price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of | reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend | to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the | road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, | less-wealthy folks. | | But younger folks might not want the same thing as older folks. | One niche example is the manual transmission. Looking at a car | like the Mazda Miata - something like a third of those are sold | new with an automatic transmission. The buyers (again, maybe | older) don't want to bother shifting their own gears, so they pay | an extra $1k or so for an automatic. But when those cars are | affordable used cars, and the market is younger car enthusiasts, | Miatas with an automatic transmission are worth quite a bit less. | The preferences of the new $30k convertible buyers aren't the | same as the preferences of the used $5k convertible buyers, even | though those $30k cars eventually become the $5k cars. | | With electric cars I wonder if we'll see a similar divide. I know | a few people (software engineers who own their own single family | homes) who have bought new electric cars. Folks I know from less | wealthy walks of life (daycare providers, teachers, grad | students, etc) have not bought used electric cars. Surely that's | at least partially because used electric cars don't exist in | great numbers, but I also wonder if those folks (people who rent, | or move often, etc) might be less enamored with a car where they | don't know they'll be able to charge it at home, or a depleted | battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc. | | I'm hoping for an electric future and I want my next car to be | electric ... I'm just really curious to see if/when middle- and | lower-class Americans start adopting these in large numbers. | maxerickson wrote: | $10,000 buys a pretty good used ICE vehicle. How many decent | electric vehicles are selling used for that price? | | The lower ongoing costs of electric can justify a higher | upfront price, but then you are paying more up front. | pkulak wrote: | You can buy a 2011 Leaf for about 3 grand. Sure, the battery | is probably toast, but replace it for 5 grand, you're still | well under 10, and now you have 100 miles of range and a car | with the only wearable item brand new. | maxerickson wrote: | Right, and that isn't a vehicle that (most) single car | households want. | nkingsy wrote: | Sadly, Nissan has jacked up the price of battery | replacement to I think 8k now, which turns my car into | scrap in 5 years unless a third party steps in. | anonuser123456 wrote: | Which just means you have a longer financing period. Capital | is so cheap today it shouldn't be a problem as long as BEV | can actually show longevity. | [deleted] | lastofthemojito wrote: | Of the ~20k used electric cars listed on cars.com, ~3k are | $10k or less. Mostly Nissan Leafs and Chevy Sparks, so it | depends on your definition of decent :). | fortran77 wrote: | A Nissan LEAF is essentially a golf cart, though. | 908B64B197 wrote: | Battery pack depreciation is the one thing that worries me the | most. | | But I wonder if it would be possible and cost effective to test | cells and combine the cells that are still good into a newer | battery pack. Maybe by the manufacturer. | | Or to just rate an existing one and give it a score so the | consumer can have a clue. | djrogers wrote: | > The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are | often older. | | One might think this to be the case, but the breakdown of new | car buyers shows about the same % of buyers make <50k as those | who make >100k (roughly 1/3rd in each cohort, but varies based | on vehicle type). Sadly, many of those buyers will take out out | a 72-84mo loan that they probably can't afford in order to pay | for that new car. | Loughla wrote: | We priced out pickup trucks recently for shits and giggles | (because we live in rural america and really have a decently | often use for one). | | They're so expensive. And the dealer pushes the 84+ month | loan to bring the payment down. Like, I get that it's a | $450/month payment, and that's supposed to sound reasonable | (it isn't reasonable, at 3/4 the cost of our mortgage). But | it's for 8 years! There's no way this truck is going to last | that long. Who does this? Why? | argiopetech wrote: | Don't forget full coverage insurance for the length of the | loan. The insurance companies must love pickup buyers. | | I will say that most 3/4- and 1-ton pickups will last 10-20 | minimum under "farm life" conditions if maintained. This | said, maintenance isn't cheap. | mywittyname wrote: | I'm a MT diehard (owned 9 cars in my life, 9 of which were | MTs), and I'm trying to think what my must have feature is for | an EV. | | Probably some sort of aggressive or responsive driving mode. I | mean, the reason I go with MTs is because I love how responsive | it is. I still giggle when I'm driving around at 4000 RPMs and | punch the throttle to get that instant thrust. Even with manual | shifting modes on automatics, it's not the same because the | torque converters mute this responsiveness. | | I've never driven a Tesla or anything, but I expect that they | aren't so hyper-responsive under normal driving conditions | because it would be pretty fatiguing to drive. Adding that back | I think is must have for me to go full EV and not keep around a | Miata or WRX for fun driving. | maxerickson wrote: | The 2 motor Model 3 just about keeps up with a 500 HP | Corvette in 50-70 times: | | https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a23685454/2018-tesla- | mo... | | https://www.caranddriver.com/chevrolet/corvette | | Smaller displacement ICE don't keep up. The Corvette has a | dual clutch automatic, so no torque converter. | lastofthemojito wrote: | My "save the manuals" score isn't as high as yours (I've | owned 6 cars, 5 of which were stick-shift), but I do vastly | prefer changing my own gears to automatics or CVTs. | | That said, if you get a chance to drive a Tesla or similar, | try it out! I did a test drive and liked it more than I | thought I would. To me, the throttle response felt immediate | and direct, reminiscent of driving a manual-shift car in the | correct gear. You're just ALWAYS in the correct gear! | | That being said, I suspect I'll probably do the same as you | and keep a fun, old-fashioned ICE roadster in the garage for | the occasional spin. | Loughla wrote: | >a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, | etc. | | This has actually stopped me from buying a used EV in the last | year, twice. Dealers aren't up front about used cars history in | general, and, again from just the two I looked at, they are | 1000% hiding any information they can regarding the battery | packs. | | This is the largest hurdle to the used car market (after the | shortage of used EV's because of their novelty). People | hesitate to buy used combustion cars, because of unknown | mechanical issues that may pop up; but this can be alleviated | by using a trusted mechanic to once-over the car. They | ABSOLUTELY hesitate to buy used EV's because of the battery | packs, and who can you go to in order to evaluate that? Nobody. | | >I'm just really curious to see if/when middle- and lower-class | Americans start adopting these in large numbers. | | When they have no choice. I'm in this boat - I work in | education and my spouse works in education. We are solidly | middle- to lower-middle class. We can't afford most new cars. | Used cars are pricey anymore as well. The only way we will | upgrade to an EV is if we can find a trustworthy used model, or | when we have no choice, because gas is $10/gallon. | bittercynic wrote: | In a way it is much easier to evaluate the condition of an EV | battery than in internal combustion engine: start with a full | charge and see how far you can drive. It may take some time, | but there's really no way to fake a good battery for that | kind of test. | mikestew wrote: | The computer on an EV will tell me the state of the battery. | You can ship an ICE over to the best mechanic in the world, | and that mechanic won't be able to reliably tell you state | of, for example, the bottom end bearings. Not without | cracking the engine open, anyway. A compression test will | reveal a lot, but it could still break a piston ring | tomorrow. | | That said, I'd not hesitate to buy a Honda with over 100K | miles on the clock. But the point is that checking the state | of a singular point of most likely failure (battery) is many | orders easier to check than the state of an ICE. | argiopetech wrote: | Leak down test, oil pressure, opening the filler cap for | blow by, sound... Plenty of accessible options there that | will diagnose a bad bottom-end or piston rings. Further, | your average Joe can replace crank bearings in an afternoon | and many could re-ring an engine with some help from | youtube. Your average Honda will need this once every | 200-400k miles (14-25 average 14k driving years) with | proper oil changes. | | There are a lot more components (cells) in a battery pack | than rotating components in an average engine. I'm unsure | if they're generally individually addressable, but I know | they're not designed to be serviced at the cell level. That | has you replacing the battery pack any time there is a | problem, a many thousands of dollars adventure just in | parts. There's also no major differentiator from a software | perspective between "the battery is old and has reduced | capacity" and "the battery is swelling and has reduced | capacity". The latter could lead without warning to a | catastrophic failure that would make a ringland failure | laughable. | | I do appreciate your view is held by many consumers who | purchase a new or certified pre-owned car every N years. | For those in lower income brackets (including most | countries in the world) or who like to buy things that | last, electric cars don't seem to carry a huge value | proposition over a traditional ICE car. | mikestew wrote: | _who like to buy things that last, electric cars don 't | seem to carry a huge value proposition over a traditional | ICE car._ | | Our Scion xB has over 100K miles on it, and our Leaf is | one of the first to roll off the line. We tend to keep | things. And I'm perfectly happy with the value | proposition of even that early-adopter tech. There's a | _lot_ more to EV ownership than just range and battery | life. Ten years later, I can hardly wait for our next | vehicle that we 'll drive the wheels off of...and it | _will_ be electric. | | EDIT: and if you can get the oil pan off a modern car | without removing the engine or at least undoing the | mounts and $STUFF so it can be jacked up (thereby | cancelling any "in an afternoon" of changing crank | bearings), you're a better mechanic than I ever was (and | I used to do it for a living). | nkingsy wrote: | It should be really easy to check the battery's level of | degradation. | | When I was buying my leaf, every posting had a picture of the | range readout fully charged. | m-ee wrote: | I think those average numbers get skewed by expensive SUVs and | luxury cars. You don't need to spend $30k to get something | decent and new, I think my Mazda 3 was like $17k in 2016. I | think we'll need a combo of good used prices like you mention | as well as new prices comparable to a Corolla to see mass | adoption. | pkulak wrote: | I like your Miata example, mostly because I think it may | illustrate that the problem won't exist for EVs. Range is king | in EVs, new or used. I can't think of any EV feature quite like | a stick shift in an ICE car. | | I actually am seeing lots of used EVs here in Portland. Mostly | Nissan Leafs. They are dirt cheap to buy and nearly free to | operate (especially given their terrible range). If you have a | commute under 20 miles, you can't do better than an EV that's | 5+ years old. | bwanab wrote: | That's kind of funny to me. I'm old and I've got a manual | transmission Saab. Young people who get in the car with me | (back before COVID) have literally asked what that thing (the | shifter) is. | ghaff wrote: | I had a stick shift Honda del Sol until about a year ago. One | of the last times I had it in at the dealer, the service rep | had to get one of the techs to bring the car around to me | after I settled up because she couldn't drive it. | lastofthemojito wrote: | Yeah, obviously the Miata buyers are not necessarily the | average young person, but that market niche is definitely | there. I think the issue of which features are desirable in | new vs older cars holds though. Another example could be 4x4s | - 4Runners, Land Rovers, etc - most of these are bought as | family cars, and those first buyers are looking for niceties | like high-end stereos, leather seats, etc. But once the | trucks are older, people care less about an obsolete stereo | or worn leather and more about which suspension or other off- | road options it has, etc. | | Going down a bit of a rabbithole there, but I'm still curious | to see what the perceived desirability of used electric cars | turns out to be for "average" Americans. | analyte123 wrote: | Yeah, you basically need to own a home to have an electric car | right now. Many blue-collar workers who have to drive around a | lot in the middle of nowhere are also excluded at least for the | next few years. | llampx wrote: | The recent increase in EV demand has come entirely from Europe. | Really. China and the US were flat for the year, and pretty | much all the gains came from Europe, where BEV and PHEVs are | selling like hot cakes. | | There are also some electric cars being sold for the lower end | of the market, mainly because auto manufacturers have to comply | with CO2 legislation and they can't do that only by selling | expensive PHEVs, much as they would prefer to. On top of that, | with more and more charging stations being built in cities and | on highways, range anxiety is not as much as it used to be. | Pretty much all new BEVs can go 200km in a charge and charge | reasonably fast. | | I believe 2021 this trend will only accelerate, especially in | the US with Biden coming in. | julienb_sea wrote: | Electric cars are perfectly pleasant to own as a second car or if | you very rarely take long road trips. | | If it's very cold or very hot, if you drive to the mountains or | rural areas for pleasure, range anxiety is a serious problem. | Waiting for a re-charge is ok if you have access to Tesla | supercharger speeds. Forcing this lifestyle change on everyone is | absolutely insane. | | The climate imperative is poor reasoning because this will be a | significant increase in electricity generation demands. | Renewables alone will not be able to keep up, so we will need to | increase fuel based generation of electricity, which is less | efficient as an overall usage of fuel for transportation versus | an efficient hybrid vehicle. | tyfon wrote: | I recently drove over 800 km in my Hyundai Ioniq 28 kWh EV, it | only took 1 hour more than when I drive my Tesla. Most of that | time was spent eating or stretching legs anyway so it is fully | possible to take longer trips :) | fossuser wrote: | It's wild to me that no other car manufacturers have taken | Tesla up on their offer for supercharger access. | | EVs without supercharger access are strict city cars. | | The electrify america network sucks, non tesla range is mostly | bad (with a small number of exceptions). Even with decent | range, lack of supercharger access makes the car a non-starter. | | I think Tesla's advantage here remains huge, I think legacy car | companies are in trouble (and this is even ignoring their | inability to write or ship software). The dealership model of | legacy car companies will also be a big problem for them and | will continue to hold them back. | | That said, I think ultimately forcing the EV switch makes sense | and with something like supercharging in place is viable. | Battery capacity will continue to improve, charging rates will | continue to improve. Pushing this shift makes sense. | | It just might be that legacy car companies are too dumb to do | it properly and will cede a lot of the market to Tesla (and | maybe Apple). | drewg123 wrote: | I've taken several long (2000mi) road trips in my Tesla. The | only range anxiety I've had has been self induced. Eg, skipping | the Tesla map planned supercharger and using the next one down | the road for a variety of reasons [1] . The most anxious I've | been is when I pulled into a supercharger with 2% remaining. | | [1] I often do this to arrive at a supercharger with a lower | state of charge. This allows for charging lower on the curve, | which allows for faster charging. I sometimes do this to avoid | unpleasant chargers. My least favorite is the Savannah super | charger, which is located several stoplights from the highway | in an airport parking garage. | cure wrote: | > The climate imperative is poor reasoning because this will be | a significant increase in electricity generation demands. | | Relatively centralized electricity generation can be converted | to lower carbon generation. This is happening pretty rapidly in | many places for economic reasons; renewable power generation is | a lot cheaper than fossil fuel power generation. | | Doing the same for more than a billion ICE engines distributed | all over the world is effectively impossible. | | > Renewables alone will not be able to keep up | | Source please? | paganel wrote: | > Doing the same for more than a billion ICE engines | distributed all over the world is effectively impossible. | | Delivering said energy to over a billion cars all over the | world is pretty impossible. As things stand right now that's | an entire continent (Africa) which in many places doesn't | have reliable power even for basic things like keeping the | hospitals running (they have to use diesel generators and the | like). | | But, then again, this EV-vehicle "revolution" is targeted at | the Western middle-classes + China, they can afford to not | care about the rest of the world as they've done until now. | fuoqi wrote: | I wonder if electrical grid is really prepared for mass adoption | of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link | [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced | capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's | not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a | lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a | higher demand for electrical power. | | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Cross-Channel | tw04 wrote: | I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look | at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in | places like California every few years, and I wonder how | throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at | extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. | | Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar | panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works | right now. | bad_alloc wrote: | I just got a Renault Zoe 2020 last December and it's been great. | Commuting to work and going to the shops is just as comfortable | as with a combustion engine. No gas station visits and even with | the high cost of electricity in Germany (0,3EUR/kWh) it's still | worth it. Only when driving longer distances (>250km) you need to | plan ahead for charging and trips take longer (1-3 hours). | zaroth wrote: | That is _really_ expensive electricity. Does anyone and | everyone with the ability to finance solar panels just install | them pronto, or do you not have net metering? | mrtnmcc wrote: | Will be watching for the success of Rivian and Cybertruck to see | if the rural market can accept electric.. but can't think of any | good reason why not, other than pride and prejudice. (FD, I grew | up in the country). | pretendscholar wrote: | Range anxiety? | Der_Einzige wrote: | Tesla cybertruck claims over 500 miles if range, which is | more than most gas vehicles... | xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: | Tesla claims a lot of things. Their cars don't even come | close to their EPA estimated range, let alone their pre- | release marketing. | | That variant is also expected to release in 2022 and cost | $70,000. | ogre_codes wrote: | Few people regularly drive more than 300 miles in a day. Most | people drive less than 50 miles a day. | | The fact that you start every trip will a full charge means | you only worry about range on the longest trips. | mrtnmcc wrote: | I do enjoy driving down country roads which won't have | superchargers for some time, but these trips are usually | <300-500miles and by it's nature the route is flexible | enough to hit a supercharger near a highway if necessary. | MrRiddle wrote: | Unless you forget to plug in, then the fix is not as simple | as hopping to the gas station. | | Or you live in an apartment building with only public | outdoor parking, then you can just forget about EV, unless | you want to WFChargeStation. | ogre_codes wrote: | > Unless you forget to plug in, then the fix is not as | simple as hopping to the gas station. | | Forgetting to plug in will rarely be a big issue unless | you forget 3-4 days in a row. Flipwise, there have been | many times where I've forgotten to fill up before coming | home and had to make a side-trip to a gas station before | heading out. | | As for apartment dwellers. The economics of EVs for | people without access to home charging are pretty | different you miss out on one of the biggest benefits -> | rarely having to fill up. | marvin wrote: | Forgetting to plug in is like forgetting to bring your | keys. It becomes second nature pretty fast. You always do | it after you park, unless you do 20 errands a day or | something. It takes five seconds. | xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: | And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than | 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. | They'll buy their new shiny _very expensive_ Telsa and | still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. | | This is a non-starter for a lot of people. | ogre_codes wrote: | > And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more | than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do | it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and | still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. | | I don't think this is the way EV owners deal with long | trips. | | Most Tesla owners seem to just use the Supercharger | network and deal with waiting 20 minutes instead of 5 | minutes. After 4 hours driving I usually take a lunch or | dinner break regardless. | xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: | That's the way I, an an EV owner, deal with long trips. I | would never try to plot a course from charger to charger. | That sounds annoying and dangerous. | | I also highly doubt that charger networks would scale. | Right now there are already busy gas stations by every | exit on the highway. Imagine how overloaded they would be | if it took an hour to fill up the tank. | | A plug-in hybrid still makes more sense. They're far | cheaper than any electric car, have all the advantages of | an electric car for short trips, and have all the | advantages of a gasoline car for long trips. | | Electric cars are usable. They are not yet practical. | | (By the way, as you may see from my other comments, I | consider Tesla a criminal enterprise. It is possible I am | dismissing the Supercharger network a little too easily.) | ogre_codes wrote: | This is why Tesla has such a big emphasis on range. If a | car has a 300 mile range, I think dealing with charging | stations is tolerable. Few people drive more than 500 | miles a day so you just have 1 stop, not a bunch. | | > Right now there are already busy gas stations by every | exit on the highway. Imagine how overloaded they would be | if it took an hour to fill up the tank. | | How much of that traffic would be eliminated because EVs | start the day full charged? | | It only takes 20 minutes for the supercharger stations | (And most newer entrants are pushing for faster charging | with mixed results). It will certainly be interesting to | see how well these networks hold up to increasing traffic | over time. I've heard the super charger network can get | pretty bogged up already on holiday weekends. | xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: | I doubt the Cybertruck will ever make it to production. Tesla | enjoys building cars that kill people, what with the wheels | falling off and the computer driving straight into walls, but I | suspect the NHTSA will draw the line at a three-ton knife | purpose-built for cutting pedestrians in half. | | Tesla isn't your champion. Literally every other manufacturer | has a better chance. Mostly because they build cars that | actually work, but also because Tesla reeks of Silicon Valley | arrogance and irresponsibility. | dzader wrote: | lol | dd_roger wrote: | The major problems with EV that will keep me from buying one in | the foreseeable future are: | | * Low range, combined with a lackluster charging infrastructure. | I think from my list this is the closest issue to being resolved, | if I could consistantly get 800km range (in real world usage, not | "800km in the brochure but actually 400km in real life") it would | be fine because (1) with such a long range the risk of having to | recharge multiple time on a single journey is fairly small, thus | reducing the inconvenience [assuming one can charge at home or | work, otherwise recharging will always be a pain in the butt | regardless of how you look at it] (2) it's enough to cross | "charging station deserts", areas where inevitably there will be | little to no charging infrastructure (see the charging stations | on french highways for reference, recharging is just as expensive | as refueling and the charging stations don't even work reliably). | | * A large segment of the EV market is made of cars that remind me | more of technological gadgets than proper vehicules. I have very | little patience to deal with technology and I certainly don't | want my car to be basically a software platform. I shouldn't get | angry before bed time but I'm still going to mention the privacy | aspect of it. Having SIM cards embedded in every car is bad | enough already but at least with the more traditional "analog" | cars you can give the manufacturer the benefit of the doubt that | the SIM card is only activated in case of accident. Most EV cars | lift the doubt by collecting analytics and installing software | updates remotely. One day there will be a data breach and | everywhere you've ever been with your car will be free for the | general public to see. Even worse, a malicious actor gets a hold | of the manufacturer's private key and can push arbitrary updates | to your car. | | * Most charging networks (I'm tempted to say "all" because I've | never seen an instance where it wasn't the case, but again let's | give the benefit of the doubt) are basically spying networks that | require an account and a credit card to use. Someone (everybody | once there's a data breach) knows everytime/everywhere you | recharge your car, how much you used since your last charge, etc. | Why can't we just pay cash for, say, $10 worth of electricity | just as we do with ICE cars? | | I believe the first point will be solved in a relatively near | future because it's mostly a matter of improving the technology a | bit (or paying more for a bigger battery). For the two last | points however I only see things getting worse since the current | trend is to go further and further in this "everything as a | digital service" direction. | mint2 wrote: | I recently got a plug in hybrid, due to road trips a full ev is | not great for me. | | The all electric range is so nice to drive. But it makes me | realize how loud the ICE is after that kicks in, which now annoys | me. I'm excited for when electrics will get a 500 mi range. It | will happen. | sandworm101 wrote: | Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. | Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest | civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all- | electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago. | mint2 wrote: | Well yes and solar isn't a great solution for arctic areas in | the winter. There's rarely a single blanket solution that works | everywhere. | sandworm101 wrote: | Solar panels actually do rather well in the north, even in | winter. They are more efficient at cold temperatures. When | the sun is up, colder air tends to have fewer clouds and | having the sun lower on the horizon means static panels can | be pointed more efficiently. Shorter trees mean housed | generally have a better view of the horizon/sky/sun. And snow | on the ground acts as a reflector, increasing the light | hitting the panels. So long as you are below the actual | arctic circle, there is a place for panels even in winter. | grecy wrote: | Whitehorse in the Yukon has more sunny days than anywhere | else in Canada. | | Sure, the sun is only above the horizon for four hours a day, | but during that time you get a good amount of power from your | chilly panels. | | When I lived up there I knew a ton of people living off-grid | with solar and a battery setup. It's really common. | argiopetech wrote: | Current ICEs seem to be doing a good job of working | everywhere. I won't downplay their disadvantages, but the | slope down from the current local maximum is pretty steep, | and it's not obvious that area electric cars currently (or | can in the next 10 years) occupy constitutes an improvement. | dghlsakjg wrote: | What percentage of the world's car owning population lives in a | place with a restriction like that? Few enough that it would be | fine to let you keep your ICE/hybrid vehicles with almost no | impact on climate is my guess. | | If I had to guess, you live in Canada which is a country of | extremes like what you mention. | | The solution for Canada probably isn't to prohibit ICE | vehicles, but to disincentivize them heavily where they make | less sense. So in the areas where extreme cold and long range | is the use case, provide an exemption. Out here on Vancouver | Island where the longest possible route is less than 500km and | a cold day is one where there's frost on my car, there's really | not a great reason for me to be buying a brand new ICE car 10 | years from now. Same thing for when I lived in Vancouver and | drove 5,000 km per year. | | My point is that a huge majority of people live in | circumstances where electric cars will be fine. We shouldn't | let the corner cases (living in a place with extreme cold where | driving 400km to the airport is routine) dictate what the rest | of the world needs to do. | packetlost wrote: | EVs are pretty impractical to virtually impossible for use in | the vast majority of the American Midwest. With temperatures | that frequently get below 0F in the winter and the huge | distance between cities, I will be very surprised if EVs have | anywhere close to a majority within the next 10-20 years | here. Some people own them as their 'commuter' vehicle and | own ICE vehicles for longer distances, but most people can't | afford or don't have space to store 2 vehicles. | 99_00 wrote: | I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more | likely to me. | | If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices | will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. | | Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion | vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that | money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of | 'congestion' taxes or such. | DennisP wrote: | Governments certainly have the power to screw things up, but | also to accelerate things. If electrics take over so much of | the market that gasoline gets super cheap, there won't be that | much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since | most people are driving electrics anyway. | | Besides that, it's not all about fuel costs. Electric vehicles | are fun, and generally low-maintenance. | throwaway0a5e wrote: | >there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon | price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics | anyway. | | So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new- | ish car is politically unacceptable there will be _some_ | resistance. | | Cars from the early '00s are still on the road. It's gonna | take another ~20yr for the fleet to turn over organically. | jlj wrote: | In the US there was a "cash for clunkers" program about | 10-15 years ago that tried to clear out ineficient older | model cars. It was fairly successful and stimulated | purchases of newer cars. The downside was that some | perfectly fine cars were scrapped. | | I suspect that gas stations will start swapping pumps for | chargers, and that will motivate people to switch too. | | By the time this all happens though we will have more car | sharing programs and maybe autonomous vehicles, so the | ownership paradigm will be different in 2030 compared to | now. Why buy a car that sits idle for 90% of the day? | djrogers wrote: | > I suspect that gas stations will start swapping pumps | for chargers, and that will motivate people to switch | too. | | This may happen some places, but I expect the charging | infrastructure to ultimately look very different from the | refueling one we have today. Today's fueling | infrastructure is the way it is largely due to the | difficulties of storing and pumping fuel safely | (physically and environmentally speaking). There's no | reason that an electric car shouldn't be able to 'refuel' | at a restaurant, grocery store, or at work (ie, where we | see most charging places pop up). | | Having four-corners real estate and employees dedicated | for electric charging all over even city is just | inefficient. | ghaff wrote: | Assuming charging will take at least 15 minutes or so, | you really would like to be able to charge somewhere that | doesn't involve hanging around a crappy convenience store | while your car charges. A deadish mall near me has some | Tela chargers right next to a popular grocery store. I | expect that sort of thing will be fairly common. | ghaff wrote: | Because you want to customize it, leave stuff in it, hop | in it _right now_ , etc. Most of the cost associated with | owning a car--especially outside of the snow belt--is in | the mileage so having a car that spends a lot of time | idle isn't really all that economically inefficient. | djrogers wrote: | > So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or | new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some | resistance. | | Sadly, that (admittedly sound and good) argument will run | headlong into the resounding cry of 'for the environment'. | Since both sides of that fight vote for the same party (in | the US) the option that brings more revenue into the | government coffers is likely to win. See every fuel tax | increase in the last 40 years in blue states as examples. | AnthonyMouse wrote: | > So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or | new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be | _some_ resistance. | | The obvious solution to this is to use the money from the | carbon tax to fund a dividend that goes to everybody. Then | the net result is progressive because everybody receives | the same amount back but people with less money tend to buy | higher fuel economy vehicles or take mass transit. | mywittyname wrote: | > If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas | prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more | attractive. | | If gas prices fall any lower due to demand, then production | capacity will probably disappear permanently, leading to | shortages and a huge, long-term rise in price. Oil pumps aren't | like taps that can be shut off and powered back on demand. They | basically need to be operated continuously because restarting | them is pretty expensive. And storing excess oil is also pretty | expensive. | | We also have to consider that low gas prices are due to volume. | Refinement is still costly, and if the volume of gas falls by a | large amount, that refinement costs gets distributed among the | remaining volume. Refinement capacity is even more expensive to | bring back online than pumps. | | I predict gasoline production will death-spiral at some point. | Gas stations will be culled as prices spike and volumes drop. I | would expect this to happen in a relatively short timespan, | over maybe 1-2 years for the bulk of it, then a long tail of | persistent decline. | davidhbolton wrote: | I think the petrochemical industry might disagree with you | there. Sure petrol/diesel for transport will decline but | pharmaceuticals, plastics and many more items are made that | way and they are not going away. This site has a big list. | https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made- | from-p... | rasz wrote: | Remember that time photo film got cheaper as more and more | people switched to digital cameras? Combustion engine powered | cars will be relegated to hipsters, museums, hardcore | enthusiasts and specialist/niche applications. | 99_00 wrote: | I'm not aware of a strong functional benefit of electric | versus combustion. But digital cameras had strong benefits | over digital, so I don't think it's a good analogy. | | In general, I don't think analogies are for making arguments, | because people focus on the difference between the analogy | and what it's being applied to, like I just did. In | education, to teach a new principle, I think they are great. | jlj wrote: | Gas taxes set a floor for how low prices can go. They'll | probably increase as gas motor cars are phased out before the | process ever sink too low. | | In Washington, US, they increased the registration fee for | electrics to make up for the shortfall in gas taxes that pay | for road wear, congestion, etc. So that's already happening. | 99_00 wrote: | >They'll probably increase as gas motor cars are phased out | before the process ever sink too low. | | Why? | ogre_codes wrote: | > If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas | prices will fall. | | This isn't entirely true. The cost of gas has a hard floor due | to the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Nobody is | spending $40 a barrel to extract oil that's selling for $25 a | barrel. So if oil demand falls and prices fall, many of the | current sellers pull out of the market entirely. | | On top of that, as the number of cars going to gas stations | starts to drop, gas stations will get less profitable. As | profits drop, stations start closing down. Eventually, enough | stations close down and it becomes inconvenient to own and | operate an ICE vehicle regardless of the cost of fuel. | 99_00 wrote: | >This isn't entirely true. The cost of gas has a hard floor | due to the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Nobody is | spending $40 a barrel to extract oil that's selling for $25 a | barrel. So if oil demand falls and prices fall, many of the | current sellers pull out of the market entirely. | | Not all producers have the same cost. Saudi Arabia is the | cheapest I know of at $2.80 per barrel. Others can be 10 | times higher or more. | | Is $2.80 the floor? Maybe not, since SA is a monopoly and can | manipulate the price. | | I think the point is that we can both agree on is that it's a | complex dynamic system, with lots of variables and | interconnections, and it reacts to changes. | | >Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, | boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel | | >A geographical comparison from the annual reports of four | major international oil companies shows that production costs | in Russia were about $22 a barrel | | https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/by-pumping- | at... | [deleted] | jeofken wrote: | Exactly what is happening in Norway | adventured wrote: | Gas prices might temporarily fall as there is a very brief | over-supply. Then the exact opposite will happen, gasoline will | become more expensive as the economies of scale vanishes, | refineries shut down permanently (never to be restarted, and no | new refineries will be built), the market demand continues to | dwindle, and on the cycle goes. Gasoline ends up as a largely | niche fuel many decades out. | | And that's before we get to the obviously anti-fossil fuel era | we're entering, where they will increasingly hammer fuels like | gasoline with taxes, driving the cost up around the globe. Even | if somehow the market didn't drive the prices up from the | economic efficiency change I described, the taxes will | regardless and that's guaranteed to occur. | maxerickson wrote: | Gasoline is (something like) 20% of refinery outputs. I think | a lot of that is coming out of upgraders, so there can be | quite a decline in output before there's not enough gasoline | refiners for there to be price competition. | | https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp2_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm | | (the upgrading part matters because they can shift their | production around a lot more than if they are just | fractioning the crude) | ogre_codes wrote: | Also, the cost to extract oil is higher in some regions and | production will drop off as prices drop. Canadian sands oil | and shale oil both cost about $40/ barrel to extract so there | isn't a ton of room for prices to go down from here before | big chunks of supply vanish. | dm319 wrote: | The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly | ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the | roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by | how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers | aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high- | speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large | city), but an even bigger problem is the heterogeneity and | complexity of coming across a charger and being able to use it on | your car. The requirement for registration, fobs/cards etc is | crazy. | | This is a good opportunity for government to step in and mandate | that all electric charging points also have the option to pay by | contactless/android/apple pay, for example. I don't mind if I pay | a few pence more, but I do mind having to find a website on my | phone and sign up then wait for a fob to be posted to me. | knoebber wrote: | California is banning sales of new internal combustion engines | in 2035 as well. That should help incentivize the | tech/infrastructure a bit. | duxup wrote: | I wonder what the yin and yang / success rate of such | mandates are / how the response really goes. | | I remember the light bulb rules at a national level had to be | rolled back when there just wasn't enough capacity to replace | them all with non incandescent options. | tyho wrote: | The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as | "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to | effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic | opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars | and charging infrastructure become apparent. | | This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have | to worry about building a charging network before electric cars | become widespread, because the Government is sending a clear | signal of when that transition will happen. | rasz wrote: | Just like Brexit. | 0xffff2 wrote: | >So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat | to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 | | _Will_ anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of | virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised | and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I | don 't take this date seriously at all. | Gwypaas wrote: | The EU legislation regarding CO2 emissions has teeth, and | no respite has been given. This is the reason so many PHEVs | are being introduced lately, they are about the only way to | comply except pure BEVs. Sure, UK is not EU anymore but the | legislation is felt worldwide. | | Before 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/ | vehicles/cars_... | | From 2020 onwards: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/tran | sport/vehicles/regul... | bpodgursky wrote: | Given that the entire length of Britain is 600 miles, going | ICE-free seems almost... easy, compared to the US. | | You really don't have the concerns about long-haul trips | impacting range. Obviously there are point-charging concerns | etc, but that's something you can throw small money at to fix. | You don't really need to convince consumers they won't be | stranded in the mountains and freeze to death. | ghaff wrote: | There are areas of the US where electric will probably be a | tough sell as someone's only vehicle for certain types of | trips and driving. Is it a large percentage? Probably not. | (And before someone says just rent a car for those times. For | a lot of driving away from pavement, you can't rent vehicles | even if you wanted to.) | mywittyname wrote: | Long haul trips were never the biggest concern for EV | adoption, that's something that can largely be worked around | through planning. | | The biggest concern has always been charging infrastructure. | EVs are great for people with garages, but not so much for | the people in cities with no dedicated parking spot. | | Banning ICEs is probably the best mechanism to get society to | solve this problem. Otherwise, most city-dwellers will just | sit back and continue to drive ICE cars waiting for someone | else to solve the charging issue. | 908B64B197 wrote: | > EVs are great for people with garages, but not so much | for the people in cities with no dedicated parking spot. | | That's one of the reasons I'm hopeful for self-driving | taxis. Unless cities magically start allowing garages to be | built. | bpodgursky wrote: | I don't know why you assert this. It is the concern for | literally every person I know who would otherwise have | bought an EV, including myself. | | People like the freedom to take longer road trips without | meticulous planning, and without sticking to certain | interstate routes which skip the interesting parts of the | country. | mywittyname wrote: | I never said it wasn't _a_ concern, I said it wasn 't the | _biggest_ concern. | | If all the gas stations around your house disappeared, | would your first concern be how you are going to get to | Indianapolis? No. It's going to be how are you going to | get work/school/etc everyday (assuming you don't work in | Indianapolis). | | EVs have an issue where most drivers have to own their | own gas-station equivalent. And people without the space | to put a personal "gas station" can't really own one. At | that point, they don't give a damn whether they can drive | to Indianapolis. | | Solving the day-to-day charging problem for people | without the space for personal charges will, as a side- | effect, also solve the issue for driving long distances. | Because the issue with going long distances in an EV | comes down to availability of charging. | ghaff wrote: | Both things are concerns, at least when you get to longer | trips on secondary roads in rural areas. | mywittyname wrote: | But again, concerns over range are really just a type of | concern over public charging capacity. | | If the people who drive those roads regularly can charge | on public chargers, then people driving through on long | trips also have the ability to charge there. Thus range | isn't a concern. | argiopetech wrote: | In the early days of ICE vehicles, range would have been | a concern. After all, horses can eat almost anywhere and | there was plenty of infrastructure (hay barns) available. | | The solution to range for an ICE is "carry more fuel". I | can load my truck bed with 500 gallons of fuel and tow | 1000 more without taking a significant mileage penalty | and drive 2/3 of the way around the world. An exaggerated | scenario, to be sure, but the concept holds on smaller | scales and is a valuable ability for many. | | What does an electric vehicle offer for someone in the | USA's mid-west, Canada's far north, or the Australian | outback where a vehicle may need to travel for days off | road without seeing civilization, possibly while | maintaining heat for survival or running equipment via | e.g. a PTO? | | Edit to add a reply to your earlier comment: The majority | of consumer uses of ICEs at the moment is commuting, | agreed. Governments aren't talking about banning the | majority of ICE sales. What fills the hole? | beerandt wrote: | Except these are basically the same overlapping issues, | and you're describing the more difficult way to solve it. | | If vehicles have twice the range, you only need about | half the charging infrastructure. | | If I don't have a personal charger at home, 1-2 charges a | week while I'm shopping is doable. But that's not | something most people will be willing to do daily, away | from home, unless it's super convenient. | | >Solving the day-to-day charging problem .... comes down | to availability of charging. | | This might work in idealized theory, but not in practice. | From a market-systems perspective, it'll be the opposite, | because range is the more flexible, independent variable. | More required charges means more constraints, which | requires a much more complex (and therefore inefficient) | system to solve. | | And this is even more applicable when factoring in grid | supply/demand/capacity. | | Separately: the market isn't always rational. If people | say they want the range to drive to Indianapolis, believe | them, no matter how irrational that demand is to you. | Especially if meeting that requirement (range) also | satisfies their others (daily charging). | seanalltogether wrote: | The number of people in the UK and Ireland that have to park | overnight on the street is way too high to start banning ICE | vehicles within the next decade. Electric infrastructure isn't | enough, they will have to completely revamp entire | neighborhoods to provide space for permanent and predictable | overnight parking for residents. | rini17 wrote: | After street lighting was upgraded to more energy-effective | LEDs there's surplus capacity. Making every pole available | for slow overnight charging does not mean to "completely | revamp entire neighborhoods". The possibility to sell the | electricity might even become attractive for municipality or | utility. | | Also, parking is going to be overhauled anyway, after decades | of cars occupying every nook and cranny, there's a strong | push to free the streets. | davidhbolton wrote: | I lived in London until 2015 and took a recent look on | Street View where I lived (Search for E10 6QB if you want | to see) . It was a typical London street where everyone | parks nose to nose. There's about 20 cars for every lamp | post. | | No way could you charge every car that way. With the | typical 50-70% street occupancy. You'd be lucky to find a | spare lamp post. | chrisseaton wrote: | > There's about 20 cars for every lamp post. | | Maybe the real problem is we have _too many cars_ in the | first place? Maybe we should limits cars to one per | couple or something like that? | throw0101a wrote: | > _The number of people in the UK and Ireland that have to | park overnight on the street is way too high to start banning | ICE vehicles within the next decade._ | | You're not wrong (and I too am a "garage orphan"--neither a | garage or even a driveway), but there are some options being | developed. The YT channel _Fully Charged_ featured two a | while back: | | * Street lamps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaEhBjt1ls | | * Pop-up charger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frkw6aurVUY | | I'm a bit skeptical. | Shivetya wrote: | Own a TM3, my issue isn't traveling from city to city but its | instead trips where the round trip is over two hundred but I am | not traveling by any major route. There are lot of what I call | "country drives" where the quick route may not involve highways | and with an ICE car those country bumpkin gas stations are all | you see. | | So until charging becomes as ubiquitous to where the country | store has "two pumps" or such people are going to find | situations where it does not work or only works on a good day. | | hence the reason I am an advocate of range, range, and more | range. Range that lets you make big round trips without | charging are the goal. I know many say "they don't need range" | or whatnot and can use a short range city car, well that same | rule applies to ICE but you will see the market for those small | lower end lower range ICE cars was never great so why would an | EV market of the same be different? | | Soon even low 200 mile range BEVs will be looked at similar to | how many look at the sub 150 crowd today; Mini should have been | ashamed to release their car; and 250-350 will be the norm | (numbers in miles, so KM is 400 to 560) | ghaff wrote: | Yes, with very few exceptions, late night driving, very rural | locations (where you at least want to top off sooner than you | normally might), etc. you basically don't need to plan | driving an ICE. There will be _some_ sort of gas station | along your route. You 're almost certainly not going to have | to alter your route for sake of hitting a gas station in | time. (And even if you have to wait for an available pump | somewhere, the car in front is only going to take a few | minutes to fill up.) | ajross wrote: | > the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of | locations per large city) | | That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have | no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer | still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing | vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really | require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the | reasons we're all addicted to driving in the first place, after | all. | | And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to | build relative to fuel stations. They'll keep up with demand | easily as the driving stock expands. The limit, if there is | one, is going to be the electrical distribution infrastructure. | High voltage lines into cities aren't as cheap as we'd want. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | The real issue is charge times. | | Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long | lines. | | Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really | take off. | imglorp wrote: | On the road for long trips, yes absolutely. But the EV | usecase also includes low and medium speed charging at home | overnight, and while at your destination (say a retailer) | which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but | not identical comparison. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | You're making many assumptions here. | | 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming | they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true | for a huge portion of the population. | | > and while at your destination (say a retailer) which | you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not | identical comparison. | | This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to | pay for this? Really? | Gibbon1 wrote: | > 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - | assuming they have a garage and access to power. This | isn't true for a huge portion of the population. | | So what, figuring out how people without a designated | parking space can change their car is trivial compared to | trying to undo global warming. Also Covid has shown us | how much disruption we can actually tolerate, hint: a lot | more than the powers that be want you to believe. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | This is a textbook strawman. | | > So what, figuring out how people without a designated | parking space can change their car is trivial compared to | trying to undo global warming. | | No it isn't. NYC has limited space. There simply isn't | enough room for a charger for every car. That is a | nontrivial problem with extreme cost. You can't just | handwave it away. | smileysteve wrote: | NYC and San Francisco are about as strawman as it gets, | because the cars AND trips per capita are some of the | lowest in the U.S. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | Because of the infrastructure surrounding it - e.g. | fleets of cars taxis, public transit, etc. In other | words, better options than having an owning an EV, which, | if you pay attention, is what we're talking about here. | natch wrote: | I don't think they claimed that everyone has access at | home. They said "the use case includes" which doesn't | exclude other possibilities. | | There are many great options for charging if you choose | your car wisely. | | Our apartment building with six parking spaces has three | Teslas and no charging on site. We do just fine. | | Charging takes about 15 seconds of my day on work days. | And on the occasion when I need more, it's quick and I | can grab a few minutes (like, 10 or 15) of a youtube | video or Netflix while charging. Or step into a store and | do an errand while charging. | | In 10 minutes I can get about 100 miles of charge. I | often go to our nearby Target (a store in the US) which | has a supercharger right in the parking lot, and I don't | charge, even though I'm already there shopping right | where the charger is. Why? No need. Already charged. It's | not that difficult. | | Notice I never said this will work for everyone. But it | works for some, with no assumption about having chargers | at home. | | >Who's going to pay? | | Sometimes you pay per kilowatt. Other times you're | charged per minute, like 3 cents a minute or so which | includes parking. Other places it's free and advertising | on nearby signs subsidies for it. Or employers pay for it | as a work benefit. One network (Chargepoint) covers most | of this stuff. | bogdanu wrote: | > This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to | pay for this? Really? | | In Europe some retailers have this, sure, for 2 or 3 | parking spots. | | If the demand is there, I'm pretty sure they'll expand | it, even as a paid/loyality bonus. I don't expect them to | offer superchaging but 50-60 km/h charge would be more | than enough. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | 2 or 3 parking spots. It's a token gesture, not | meaningful infrastructure. Electrifying an entire parking | lot is a lot more expensive than 2 or 3 spots. | tzs wrote: | To put some numbers on this, you can measure charge | rates/fueling rates as number of miles worth of charge/fuel | provided per hour of charging/fueling. | | A Tesla V3 Supercharger can charge at a rate of about 1000 | mph or 1600 kph. | | A 240 volt 48 amp home charger home charger can charge a | Model 3 at a rate of 44 mph or 71 kph. | | A US gas pump can pump a maximum of 10 gallons per minute. | If you refill at a station with such a pump, and your car | gets 25 mpg (about average for the current US fleet), | that's 15000 mph or 24000 kph. | | Perhaps we should be pushing for plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) | as a transition between ICE and EV. PHEVs have ranges | between about 20 and 60 miles on electricity, which for | many people is enough to cover all of their normal day to | day driving except possibly their commute entirely on | electric if they have a place for overnight charging at | home, and when they need more range it has the ICE engine. | technofiend wrote: | Tangentially gas cars are convenient because you just don't | have to think about the length of your next trip: there | will be gas available wherever you go. Long trips with an | EV require planning due to missing infrastructure, longer | "fueling" times, and shorter ranges. | | But if we break out off the assumption that you can go | anywhere any time in your electric car because there's | another option available (rental? ride sharing? public | transportation?) and EVs are at least for now meant for | shorter trips then it becomes less of an issue. | | But you're right - the freedom to just hop in an EV and go | isn't here yet. I look forward to when it is. Can't come | soon enough for me. | ntsplnkv2 wrote: | If we break off the assumption of what most consumers | want, sure. But then what would be the point? | sandworm101 wrote: | >> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt | cheap to build relative to fuel stations. | | Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per | hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily | deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point | capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, | electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs | to run such a service to a random location in a city. Look at | the costs of putting up even a handful of towers capable of | delivering a thousand amps peak load. Then look the | additional real estate costs need to facilitate 100 cars/hour | worth of charging points. Electric 'stations' are very much | not drop-in replacements. We need a very different physical | infrastructure (ie smaller charge points at every parking | spot rather than central stations). | dzhiurgis wrote: | This why a lot of stations are now moving to adding | batteries to meet peak demand. | | Also if you have lots of stalls of cars charing to 100%, | you can steal some of their charge and route to someone who | needs to get to 80% ASAP. | | Also, fast charge is very slowed down in cold climates | and/or when you are reaching 80%. | ajross wrote: | I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't | think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, | routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 | cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and | infrastructure are already there, and have been for | decades. | p1mrx wrote: | 100A at 240V can charge 4-5 cars... in about 12 hours. | That would be useful at a hotel or workplace, but it | won't replace a gas station. | smileysteve wrote: | > That would be useful at a hotel or workplace, but it | won't replace a gas station. | | Also useful at any sit down restaurant (even fast food). | (which although self driving makes driving while eating | safer, was a horrible practice to begin with) | | Addon; Tracked long trips we took in the SE last year | against the Tesla charger map; There was always a super | charger within 1 mile of where we stopped for food, were | stopped for about an hour, etc. And some in our group | also needed bio breaks every hour and a half; aka < 150 | miles. | cptskippy wrote: | > but it won't replace a gas station. | | It will replace the majority of them. | | The concept non-EV owners struggle with is that with an | EV you don't normally go out of your way to charge it the | way you do with an ICE. If you can charge at home, at | work, at the grocery store, and at restaurants then why | do you need a filling station? If you start your day at | 100% because you charge at home then you don't need any | of the other infrastructure unless you go on a road-trip. | | The amount of charging infrastructure need is also based | on both demand and use case. A grocery store or | restaurant might opt for DC fast chargers because they | know customers won't be around for more than 30 minutes, | but an office park can use 3-6kw chargers because users | are there for 8 hours a day. The EVSEs are smart too so | you can balance output based on demand. Have two EVs | plugged in, they both get 3kw. Just one can pull 6kw. | glial wrote: | OK, maybe the goal should be to relax our assumption that | recharging happens at the gas stations, and just spread | the load to all the parking lots we can find. Then gas | stations could just have the quick-charge versions for | more $$. | turtlebits wrote: | The problem is that your 100A charging station will take | 8+ hours to charge all 4 cars to max (as that is ~L2 | charging speed.. | marvin wrote: | The biggest problem is peak power. The naive approach is | to try to pull 500kW from the grid during the 20 minutes | that you have five cars charging, then zero once they | leave. This will at best be very expensive, but most | likely impossible as the local grid won't support it. | | So a battery buffer needs to be built into the charging | station in order to operate them cheaply, with a smoother | load profile that the power company and grid operator | will service without exorbitant costs. | | Thankfully, at least one EV company has already realized | this :-) Let's see if more than one of them eventually | starts producing enough batteries to support the | strategy. | sandworm101 wrote: | Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an | 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do | the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to | charge/fill the same number of cars _per hour_ as one gas | pump you need 8 superchargers. That 's a significant | increase in real estate area needed. | | Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers | around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 | Megawatt, or around 20,000 amps, to give the equivalent | number of fills/charges per hour as ONE gas pump. | | I filled my tank at a medium-sized station this morning | that had 8 pumps (4 islands, double-sided). So the drop- | in electric replacement would be 8x the numbers above. | maxerickson wrote: | Applebee's can add charge points without any increase in | real estate (as an example). The ongoing logistics of | having chargers in the parking lot is pretty different | than running a gas station. | | Which is to say, quickly fueling up at a convenience | store probably won't be the only way people charge their | vehicles going forward. | sandworm101 wrote: | Exactly. I wasn't saying that charging was impossible, | rather that drop-in replacements for gas stations are | impracticable and certainly would not be "cheap". The | widespread use of EVs will require a very different | physical infrastructure. | marvin wrote: | This line of reasoning is incorrect. Unlike fossil | refuelling, the vast majority of EV charging happens at | home. This charging does not load public charging | stations at all. Unless your needs are esoteric, you | might only charge at a public charging station one out of | twenty times. | | Of course some homes don't have private charging easily | available, but that's a different argument. | uncledave wrote: | Very few homes have anywhere to charge anything in London | as an example. I don't think the model works without | knocking cities down and starting again. | | The two people I know with Teslas have to charge at the | local supercharger or park it a quarter of a mile away at | the nearest slow charger which becomes a chore. | ghaff wrote: | More to the point, I'm not sitting around for 40 minutes | at a charging station even once a week to get recharged | (and it will be more frequent than that for many). | Especially given that offices may be a less regular | thing, people need ways to charge when their cars are | parked wherever they're parked when they're at home. Even | if they eat out a bit that's not a substitute. | fiftyfifty wrote: | This is a false dichotomy, we have to get away from | thinking of charging stations like gas pumps. Charging | stations can be everywhere: grocery stores, retail stores, | office buildings, malls, just about any parking lot or | parking garage, hotels, airport parking and on and on. Gas | pumps have to have huge underground tanks, and they have to | be regularly refilled by large tanker trucks, by their very | nature they will be less common and so they'd better be | able to service more cars per hour. Charging stations are | much smaller and can tie into the grid just about anywhere, | there should be a lot more of them and thus they won't need | to handle as many cars as a gas station does. | jussij wrote: | I also think from the driver's perspective the usage will | be totally different. | | Today's driver generally goes to the gas station only | when the tank is empty. | | That leads to a 'big bang' event in that the tank will be | close to empty at the start of the visit and full by the | end of the visit. | | By comparison the driver of the electric car will be | using a 'top up' approach, charging the car at home over | night, at work when parked, at the shopping center, etc. | etc. | | Those 'big bang' events, where a full recharge is | required will be fewer and far between. | zizee wrote: | Excellent points. Also people seem to be forgetting a | large percentage of people will be charging at home | overnight, and will largely never need to charge their | cars at places other than home. | BurningFrog wrote: | Yeah, every parking spot could be a simple charging | station. All you need is a power cable. | | Reusing the land of all gas stations for other things | will be a good benefit of all this. Except for San | Francisco, where they all will be preserved as historical | landmarks. | maxerickson wrote: | I've been mapping Michigan gas stations on OpenStreetMap so I | have some data ready at hand here. Wayne County, which is | essentially all part of the Detroit metro area, has more than | 800 retail fuel establishments licensed by the state of | Michigan. | | (I don't think my point particularly rests on how the Detroit | metro is defined; Detroit itself has 349 gas stations) | ajross wrote: | Well, OK, but I'm not sure that really reflects the subject | under discussion (a recognized place with a sign or | whatever where you know you can drive in and fill up). | | I mean, to be glib: I have no Detroit-area GIS experience | whatsoever, but I can type "gas station" into a Google Maps | search for the area and count how many flags I see. And | it's absolutely not 800. Indeed, it looks like 40 or so. | | Surely there are technicalities that make other places | "technically" gas stations too. But then, there are | technicalities that make any AC outlet a charging station | -- virtually every large retail facility near me has one or | two car chargers, for example. | maxerickson wrote: | Based on having reviewed a bit more than 1/2 of the ~4000 | in the state, they are almost all gas stations with a | canopy and convenience store. | | There's some older places with no canopy and some boat | and rec fuel sales, but a few dozen. | | Michigan likely has "lots" of gas stations, as regulation | has historically been friendly to personal vehicles, but | I wouldn't take Google as gospel. | | later: the Google results appear to be paginated to ~20 | results at a time. | k__ wrote: | Good to hear. | | I'm not driving much myself lately, but I'm really excited about | the health impact of removing combustion engines from our cities. | jillesvangurp wrote: | Same here; but living in a big city I can't wait for diesel | fumes to not be a thing when I'm riding my bike across town. | It's not just annoying, this stuff is actually killing people. | But because it's a slow killer nobody seems to care much. EVs | are changing that as well; people are getting more critical of | pollution like this because they know it is not necessary. The | recent lock downs were kind of a preview of what might be in | our near future when transport is cleaned up. | | In terms of tipping point, the other thing that is happening | (besides battery cost dropping) is the massive ramp-up in | production volume. Just a few years ago, Tesla producing more | than 50K cars was news worthy. Last year they did half a | million and they have a few more factories coming online this | year. Also VW, GM, and other manufacturers are producing cars | by the hundreds of thousands per year as well. Soon it will be | millions. By mid this decade, the second hand EV market will | also start ramping up. Right now a lot of people are still on | their first EVs. | | It's basically a supply constrained market: people are buying | these things as soon as they get produced. Most of the popular | EVs have waiting lists for getting them and would be selling | more if they could produce more of them. These manufacturers | are still learning how to produce and design efficiently. A lot | of the cars on the market right now are still designed to come | in both ICE, hybrid, and EV configurations. That makes them | less efficient and more costly to make. It's just not optimal. | A few years from now, that will stop being a thing. There will | just be too many purposely designed EVs on the market that will | be a better deal overall. | | It's going to take a while for manufacturers to switch to | producing EVs only. Production volume overall is something like | 90M cars per year and only a few percent is EVs currently. | Probably by the end of the decade it will be the other way | around. There are billions of vehicles (cars, trucks, etc.) it | will take a while for those to disappear. That being said, it | will be similar to horses disappearing from the streets early | last century. Once it makes sense economically, people will | switch as fast as they can (function of price and production | volume). ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-01-22 23:00 UTC)