[HN Gopher] Sovereign writers and Substack
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Sovereign writers and Substack
        
       Author : feross
       Score  : 79 points
       Date   : 2021-03-22 14:48 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (stratechery.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (stratechery.com)
        
       | mdoms wrote:
       | Substack is what happens when the mainstream media elites
       | overplay their hand and force heterodox writers out of the
       | "mainstream". As it turns out there are still plenty of people
       | who want to read this kind of writing, and we don't appreciate
       | the gatekeeping from formerly reputable sources.
        
       | ceilingcorner wrote:
       | _Of course things aren't so simple; Sullivan, like several of the
       | other names on that leaderboard, are, to put it gently,
       | controversial. That he along with other lightning-rod writers
       | ended up on Substack is more a matter of where else would they
       | go?_
       | 
       | While Substack is portrayed as being a good move for writers and
       | journalists (and certainly it is, financially), I don't think
       | this is actually good for journalism as a whole. It often will
       | just mean that successful writers are the most celebrity-like
       | ones: writing controversial things because it gets more traffic
       | and therefore more income.
       | 
       | I don't know about you, but I don't want the tactics of Kim
       | Kardashian to be the model of a future journalist.
        
         | jameshart wrote:
         | Substack is a great move for a _columnist_ but a terrible move
         | for a _reporter_.
         | 
         | Unfortunately not all journalists are completely clear which of
         | those they are.
        
         | bhupy wrote:
         | That's what journalism has _always_ been like, save for a few
         | decades in one specific country (the US). The past few decades
         | of supposed  "objectivity" and "neutrality" in American
         | journalism were a historical aberration.
         | 
         | https://www.wired.com/story/journalism-isnt-dying-its-return...
        
           | slibhb wrote:
           | I watched a classic movie from the 50s recently, Sweet Smell
           | of Success. In the movie columnists are portrayed as almost
           | exclusively venal and engaged in corrupt influence-peddling
           | (except for one guy who refuses to compromise in the face of
           | blackmail).
           | 
           | It was an interesting counterpoint to the "journalists used
           | to be objective" stuff.
        
           | ceilingcorner wrote:
           | Anti-discrimination laws, human rights, and democracy are
           | also historical aberrations. But I think they're _kind of_
           | worth keeping around.
           | 
           | Perhaps getting accurate facts about the world is also
           | important?
        
             | bhupy wrote:
             | > Anti-discrimination laws, human rights, and democracy are
             | also historical aberrations. But I think they're kind of
             | worth keeping around.
             | 
             | Nazism was also a historical aberration, but that's
             | certainly not worth keeping around. Just because some
             | "good" things were historical aberrations, doesn't mean
             | that all historical aberrations are "good".
             | 
             | > Perhaps getting accurate facts about the world is also
             | important?
             | 
             | I don't think anybody disagrees with this. The central
             | question is: is _journalism_ the institution that should be
             | responsible for getting accurate facts about the world?
             | That 's almost never been the case, and even today, isn't
             | the case in most countries (including Western Europe). We
             | typically use other institutions to suss out facts,
             | including academia and peer-reviewed research. News
             | articles published by mainstream outlets aren't peer-
             | reviewed, and bias has existed in journalism since time
             | immemorial. That was the point of my original response.
             | Substack isn't "good" or "bad" for the future of
             | journalism, it's "neutral", since it doesn't change the
             | status quo all that much.
        
             | adolph wrote:
             | Were people getting accurate facts about the world
             | previously?
             | 
             |  _Wen it came out in 1988, Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman's
             | Manufacturing Consent rattled the accepted view in post-
             | Vietnam, post-Watergate America that journalists'
             | relationship to power was essentially adversarial. Instead,
             | they argued, the institutional structure of American media
             | -- its dependence on corporate advertising and sources in
             | the upper ranks of government and business -- created a
             | role for the press as creators of propaganda. Without any
             | direct press censorship, with full freedom of speech, the
             | media narrowed the political debate to exclude anything
             | that offended the interests of the market or the state._
             | 
             | https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/10/matt-taibbi-interview-
             | fai...
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > While Substack is portrayed as being a good move for
           | writers and journalists (and certainly it is, financially), I
           | don't think this is actually good for journalism
           | 
           | And were neither objective nor neutral, just a close
           | alignment of elite interests reflected in homogeneity.
        
         | nickysielicki wrote:
         | That's a strawman and a half.
         | 
         | World-improving journalism follows a Pareto distribution where
         | 90% of non-submarine hard-hitting journalism is done by 10% of
         | the journalists and the rest just exist to peddle influence.
         | The industry has been under pressure for a long time due to the
         | death of print media, and substack just represents the 10%
         | cutting the fat.
         | 
         | Good riddance. Learn to code.
        
         | tablespoon wrote:
         | > I don't know about you, but I don't want the tactics of Kim
         | Kardashian to be the model of a future journalist.
         | 
         | I don't think something like Substack could even support
         | journalism. Sure, it could support various kinds of punditry,
         | which is often confused for journalism, but beat journalism is
         | probably too boring and investigative journalism produces on
         | too irregular of a schedule.
        
         | pydry wrote:
         | >It often will just mean that successful writers are the most
         | celebrity-like ones: writing controversial things because it
         | gets more traffic
         | 
         | The opposite seems more the case to me. Convincing readers to
         | get out their wallet encourages more thoughtful, longer form
         | writing.
         | 
         | It's the larger media publications that are gradually getting
         | more clickbaity in a desperate bid to gain clicks and ad
         | revenue.
        
         | zpeti wrote:
         | My perception of old media is that they are doing exactly this,
         | writing click bait things to get clicks and subs. This is true
         | across the board from CNN to NYT to Fox.
         | 
         | At least with substack the incentives are not there for daily
         | churn articles, the journalists have independence to publish
         | when they want to, how they want to, worst case they lost
         | subscribers. I think those incentives make them a lot less
         | likely to make everything about clicks and controversy
         | actually.
        
           | ceilingcorner wrote:
           | Agreed, old media already does this. The question is: does
           | switching to an individual-focused model actually address the
           | underlying issues?
        
             | carlineng wrote:
             | I would argue that yes, the fundamental incentives are
             | different. Traditional media relied on an advertising-based
             | revenue model, that needed to maximize eyeballs to be
             | attractive to advertisers. Substack relies on
             | subscriptions, which can operate at a much smaller scale.
             | Matthew Yglesias's 10k subscribers is not nearly enough to
             | be attractive for an advertiser, but more than enough to
             | support a single writer's subscription business. Through
             | Substack, writers are incentivized to write things they
             | think that _people will pay for_ , not just things they
             | think people will click on.
        
         | 762236 wrote:
         | You've described NY Times and Fox News in how they write
         | controversial things to get more traffic. They share the same
         | world, yet have quite dissimilar front pages, because they're
         | tailoring controversy for the value systems of their audiences.
         | The authors on Substack don't need to seek controversy: they
         | just need to point out the rules of the orthodoxy, and then the
         | controversy follows them.
        
           | ceilingcorner wrote:
           | Yes, so Substack is just kicking the bucket further down the
           | road. Just another game of musical chairs.
           | 
           | I guess it's cool that writers make more money, but I'm not
           | sure this is as revolutionary as it seems.
        
         | snicksnak wrote:
         | > I don't want the tactics of Kim Kardashian to be the model of
         | a future journalist.
         | 
         | Most mayor news outlets (including NYT) run branded/sponsored
         | content. I doubt that you will see that on substack.
        
           | meheleventyone wrote:
           | You absolutely will when people on the cusp of making a
           | living use them to push themselves over that edge. As is
           | pretty common on other content platforms.
           | 
           | Here it's happening already:
           | https://medialyte.substack.com/p/the-curious-emergence-of-
           | th...
        
         | Dirlewanger wrote:
         | Old media and Buzzfeed-esque rags had their chance to write
         | quality journalism in the nascent Internet age. They've failed
         | spectacularly and are tearing society apart. If this is the way
         | forward for the time being, so be it.
        
         | slibhb wrote:
         | > writing controversial things because it gets more traffic and
         | therefore more income.
         | 
         | This is a danger but I'd rather have "controversial" than "if
         | you deviate from the politics of the publication that pays your
         | salary, you get fired".
         | 
         | Personally, I like Sullivan, Greenwald, Yglesias, Taibbi, etc.
         | 
         | I think Sullivan and Yglesias are not drama queens and that
         | Geenwald and Tiabbi are. But I like all 4, I just think the
         | latter two need a responsible editor to rein them in a bit.
        
           | ceilingcorner wrote:
           | I don't dislike them, I just dislike the idea that becoming a
           | successful journalist will now mean you must also be
           | charismatic, good at attracting attention to yourself, etc.
        
             | x0x0 wrote:
             | The word "now" is doing a lot of work there :) So also
             | successful.
             | 
             | Do you think there was really a time that being a really
             | successful journalist didn't require some charisma and a
             | talent for publicity? Maybe the publication handled some of
             | those things, but it doesn't change that they were
             | required.
        
               | ceilingcorner wrote:
               | Of course. Investigative journalism has little to do with
               | building an audience of paying subscribers. When the
               | newspaper handled the business end, the journalists could
               | focus on the journalism.
               | 
               | It wasn't called "loss leader" for nothing.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Newspapers were historically a bundle of only somewhat
               | tangentially related things that you had to take, if not
               | actually read, all together. The foreign bureaus and
               | investigative journalism provided the prestige, sports a
               | lot of readership, and classified ads the money. Of
               | course, the Internet broke that bundle apart to a large
               | degree.
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | To be honest, writing is a kind of art and what you
             | describe has always been important among artistically
             | gifted people.
             | 
             | Introverted and shy geniuses tend to be discovered after
             | their deaths, if ever.
        
               | ceilingcorner wrote:
               | No, that really isn't true at all. Some of the most
               | famous writers and artists throughout history were
               | terrible at self-promotion.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Well we are talking more about financial success, right?
               | Or that was my impression from the debate. Even the
               | original article revolves around $$$.
        
               | ceilingcorner wrote:
               | I'm just concerned that _journalists_ will become more
               | like _celebrities_. Less concerned with the cold facts
               | and more with giving their take.
               | 
               | Frankly a similar thing has already happened in the art
               | world. Banksy, Jeff Koons, and Damien Hirst are fantastic
               | marketers, not artists.
        
               | x0x0 wrote:
               | Was Ted Koppel really a great journalist?
        
               | ceilingcorner wrote:
               | Not the example I'd use. Kronkite is a better one, IMO.
               | That level of straightforwardness is sorely lacking
               | today.
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Journalism has always been a business that sells on sensation
         | and controversy.
         | 
         | The people who tell you otherwise tend to be journalists.
         | 
         | That said, sensation driven journalism can be pretty good at
         | checking the powerful, since it's sensational when they do bad
         | things.
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > While Substack is portrayed as being a good move for writers
         | and journalists (and certainly it is, financially), I don't
         | think this is actually good for journalism
         | 
         | Certainly what I've seen from writers on substack is much worse
         | than what I've seen from the same writers in traditional
         | publications. It seems to be a great way of catapulting anyone
         | who has achieved even a bit of name recognition into that
         | "doesn't have to deal with editors/publishers/etc." phase of
         | their career that's often the quality downfall as ego takes
         | over for many writers, but which has historically been more
         | available to writers doing long-form work.
        
       | smoldesu wrote:
       | I don't think I'll ever end up using Substack. In a world where
       | information is virtually worthless, why should I pay you for your
       | opinion?
        
         | coldtea wrote:
         | It might be worthless to you. Depends on what you can take out
         | of it, or do with it.
         | 
         | Well formed opinions, ideas, curation, and coverage, and
         | priceless to others. To some because they operate in fields
         | where they can put to use such information, to others because
         | they want to understand the world they live in better (even if
         | they don't get something out of it).
         | 
         | Even more so "in a world where information is virtually
         | worthless", in other words, in a world where good stuff is lost
         | in the noise / signal ratio.
         | 
         | In any case, I'd rather pay for a few great newsletters than
         | for wasting my time with the nth BS Netflix show.
         | 
         | (I pay for a couple of Substack subscriptions)
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | zpeti wrote:
       | A very elegant non-political article getting to the core of the
       | issue - that yet again old business models are being disrupted
       | and this pisses people off.
       | 
       | Shame these pissed off people have to get political though.
        
       | naringas wrote:
       | The Yglesias deal seems more like a marketing and promotion
       | expense from the perspective that substack is a tool for writers
       | to work with. not too different from a typewritter or a word
       | processor.
        
       | pavlov wrote:
       | There seems to be a backlash in progress against Substack's
       | publishing policies.
       | 
       | Last week I finally subscribed on Substack to an art-related list
       | where I had been enjoying the free edition for a while. ($55 /
       | year felt like a pretty good deal for access to more of this
       | interesting content.)
       | 
       | A few days later, the writer announced that they're moving off
       | Substack. I'll just quote their message verbatim:
       | 
       |  _" I'm planning to switch to my newsletter provider from
       | Substack to Ghost in the near future -- if I understand it right,
       | the paid subscriptions can all be migrated, so I don't think
       | it'll be a big hiccup on the subscriber end. I'll let you know
       | when I actually make the switch._
       | 
       |  _" It's because I'm concerned with Substack's marketing plan of
       | subsidizing controversial authors (discourse here: Annaleen
       | Newitz, Emily VanDerWerff, Jude Ellison S. Doyle, Metafilter
       | thread), particularly a weirdly large number that can be
       | reasonably construed as anti-trans. Plus, Graham Linehan still
       | uses the service, despite being kicked off plenty of other
       | platforms for documented anti-trans abuse._
       | 
       |  _" The media profiting off of platforming anti-trans views was a
       | major impetus behind the rise of anti-trans sentiment in the UK
       | in 2016, and the same seems to be happening in the US (broadly,
       | not just on Substack). Yet Substack's response seems to pretty
       | bluntly reject the idea that they need to reconsider anything.
       | Even if they ban Linehan in the future, I've lost faith in the
       | leadership."_
       | 
       | Personally I feel this author is doing the right thing by getting
       | off a platform whose policies they can't support. And it makes me
       | wonder about Substack's stickiness, because as a consumer I
       | certainly don't care one bit which company processes my annual
       | payment and delivers the emails.
        
       | michaelt wrote:
       | _> [...] writers who can command a paying audience have
       | heretofore been significantly underpaid._
       | 
       | I don't know for sure, but I _suspect_ the writer-paid-monthly
       | model is straight up more effective at pulling money from readers
       | ' pockets than the magazine subscription model.
       | 
       | I mean, I can pay PS34 a year for a fortnightly magazine with
       | quite a few writers doing quite a lot of investigative
       | journalism, and even mailing a paper copy to me. I can pay PS10
       | for a novel by a bestselling author who takes several years to
       | write each novel.
       | 
       | But with the market positioning of "$10 per month" it turns out
       | you can sell one person's writing for PS86 ($120) per year.
       | 
       | Strange that the output of one full time human writer could be
       | priced so differently, even when every example is award-winning
       | and well known. Perhaps the future of writing is a return to
       | Dickens-era serialisation, and the next J. K. Rowling will be
       | posting two chapters a week on Patreon.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | How many people will actually pay $120/year though. I pay in
         | that ballpark for the NYT and The Economist. But it seems
         | borderline nuts to pay that for a single author's newsletter
         | unless they're delivering unique insights that I can turn into
         | a lot more money than that. Or _maybe_ is they do a really good
         | job of covering a niche hobby although that 's still almost
         | certainly more than a niche hobby magazine would charge.
        
         | abhinav22 wrote:
         | I think once the novelty wears off and people start seeing how
         | many subscriptions they are on, they will move to consolidated
         | packages covering multiple writers, like Netflix for writing.
         | Which already exists in the sense of Medium.com
         | 
         | Everything reverts to the mean and your point is valid - we
         | shouldn't expect one form of writing to have abnormally high
         | returns to effort ratio for too long, unless there is a general
         | shift in the value of writing by the population at large. Which
         | given current trends towards video and higher stimulation, I
         | would assume is less likely?
         | 
         | Unless one could argue there's a huge untapped latent market of
         | bookworms. I think there is some market to a degree as people
         | get burned out on other forms of media, but I'm not sure if
         | it's large enough for substacks model to work for a significant
         | period in the future
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | I could absolutely see an aggregator model, where the quasi-
           | publisher maybe even provides some degree of editorial
           | support at the copyediting level. The question then becomes
           | though if the $100 or so/year which still seems to me to be
           | the ceiling for something like this is sufficient to support
           | a stable of writers.
        
             | abhinav22 wrote:
             | I guess how different will that be to the current
             | subscription model for premium newspapers like WSJ, NYT, FT
             | etc?
             | 
             | Perhaps it could result in the rise of "micro magazines"
             | where a few writers combine and create their own joined
             | content vs being forced to being part of a larger
             | bureaucratic organization.
             | 
             | Or readers could pick and choose a selection for their
             | bundle.
             | 
             | Definitely can expect to see some disruption in the market!
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | It's different in that there's a different level of
               | editorial control--though it's not _that_ different from
               | the op-ed page.
               | 
               | There are other examples, albeit ad-supported ones. One
               | of the tech pubs used to have a blog network of outside
               | writers. (They eventually dropped this as they became
               | less and less comfortable with outside people writing
               | under their brand; this was also a period when orgs were
               | pulling back from their own people having strong personal
               | brands on their sites.) Back to the print days, many tech
               | pubs had a stable of regular columnists. A lot of Forbes
               | blogs are third-parties.
               | 
               | It's not an unreasonable model. The question, as with
               | many things, is what the economics look like.
        
         | rahimnathwani wrote:
         | "Perhaps the future of writing is a return to Dickens-era
         | serialisation, and the next J. K. Rowling will be posting two
         | chapters a week on Patreon."
         | 
         | This is how online literature works in China:
         | https://archive.is/uoOXS
        
       | autarch wrote:
       | As a further data point, Freddie deBoer just published a post
       | with details about his Substack Pro deal -
       | https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/financial-transparency
        
       | danpalmer wrote:
       | I find the current criticism of Substack quite interesting. It
       | seems to be on the assumption that they are a publisher, or at
       | least a visible brand in the publishing process, and they do
       | indeed appear to be in the middle unlike most companies.
       | 
       | It's obvious that the NYT are responsible for what's published on
       | their site, after all it says NYT across the top, NYT on the
       | subscription fee, and they (theoretically) have editorial
       | control.
       | 
       | On the other hand it's obvious that Stripe (for example) are not
       | responsible for what's published on Stratechery, they are
       | invisible to the customer, and I think most reasonable people
       | would not suggest that Stripe exercise moral judgement on
       | Stratechery and decline the business unless Ben Thompson crossed
       | a line that is very far from acceptable (likely bordering on
       | illegality).
       | 
       | But Substack is both. Their name is in the URL, writers are found
       | via Substack, articles say "published on Substack" on them. They
       | are trying to claim that they are just a backend and that it's up
       | to writers what they publish, but they are in fact a frontend at
       | least in part for the customer, and therefore any decision or
       | lack thereof is taking a moral standpoint.
       | 
       | I think Substack are going to have to decide whether they want to
       | own that responsibility, and become known for a certain "type" of
       | content, or whether they want to fade into the background and let
       | the writers' brands take over.
        
         | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
         | What do you think about Wordpress as a counterexample? There
         | was a time a decade ago when lots of blogs under the
         | wordpress.com domain; I don't remember anyone being confused or
         | arguing that Wordpress the company was responsible for their
         | content.
        
           | ceilingcorner wrote:
           | Blogspot is a weird example too, because there are some very
           | fringe, extremist people using that domain.
        
           | danpalmer wrote:
           | That's a good counter example.
           | 
           | I wonder if it has something to do with the discovery flow
           | and perhaps even the theming?
           | 
           | Did Wordpress provide an index of all the websites? They
           | don't appear to now? Also the fact that every site could be
           | themed meant that many sites looked really quite different
           | and so the website brand was stronger than the Wordpress
           | brand.
           | 
           | Just hypothesising. I feel like it is quite different but I'm
           | not entirely sure why as, you're right, Wordpress worked in a
           | similar way.
        
         | bko wrote:
         | The publisher model gets thrown around a lot in regards to
         | social media companies like substack. The basic line of
         | reasoning is that, as a publisher, substack would be
         | "responsible" for its content.
         | 
         | But what ways are traditional publishers "responsible" for
         | their content? There's some internal self-imposed
         | responsibility (e.g. someone will be fired due to insensitive
         | tweet), but that's more politics than anything else. Large
         | publishers regularly print patently incorrect data and
         | narratives with no consequences. So maybe this
         | publisher/platform distinction isn't all that meaningful
        
         | naringas wrote:
         | > most reasonable people would not suggest that Stripe exercise
         | moral judgement on Stratechery and decline the business unless
         | Ben Thompson crossed a line that is very far from acceptable
         | (likely bordering on illegality).
         | 
         | this is wrong in principle. Stripe should not excercise moral
         | judgement "when bordering on illegality". That's a job for
         | courts and judges.
         | 
         | Judgement is supposed to be passed once there's proof of guilt;
         | not when bordering near it.
         | 
         | The current contemporary climate seems to be letting go of
         | these kinds of crucial principles of society.
         | 
         | But these exist for a reason, if we get rid of them we will
         | find out why there were there in the first place, possibly
         | after some social readjustment.
         | 
         | the fact that this opinion is now 'reasonable' is worries me
         | personally.
        
         | ceilingcorner wrote:
         | They are just using the same playbook as the rest of Silicon
         | Valley. Twitter and Facebook manage to never be considered a
         | platform or a publisher, and they won't be until legislation
         | requires it.
        
           | danpalmer wrote:
           | People view things like Substack as closer to traditional
           | news publishing/writing and quite differently to social media
           | so I think they're starting from a position of far higher
           | expectations.
           | 
           | But regardless, Twitter and Facebook are becoming more well
           | known for their positions on these issues. Twitter is known
           | for having a "lefty bubble" and taking a long time to "ban
           | nazis". Facebook is known for having everyone's conspiracy
           | theory loving Uncle.
        
       | analyte123 wrote:
       | The writers aren't completely "sovereign" as long as they are
       | using Stripe (and Visa and Mastercard) to process payments. It is
       | basically inevitable that some entity in the payment system will
       | eventually interfere with Substack even if Substack themselves
       | hold the line.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | True, but messing with people like Greenwald, Tufekci, Taibbi,
         | Yglesias, Sullivan etc. _at the same time_ is bound to get
         | Stripe into a world of hurt.
         | 
         | These are names with a following and they have strong incentive
         | to stick together if anyone on Substack is threatened with
         | financial cancellation.
        
         | criddell wrote:
         | Substack themselves have a ToS. In theory Substack could always
         | switch payment processors or allow crypto currency payment, but
         | you can never get out from under their ToS.
         | 
         | For example, you couldn't publish something like 2600 there
         | because they discuss illegal activities like blue boxing.
        
         | redisman wrote:
         | I guess we're waiting to find out if Trump or someone will
         | start writing there. The current big boys are all non-woke
         | center left/right so they're not actually at all outrageous to
         | the general public.
        
           | gfosco wrote:
           | They are however outrageous to the far-left journos at
           | mainstream publications, which is why there's so much
           | attention focused on Substack right now. Trump won't go
           | anywhere that he doesn't get to own a significant portion of
           | the business, so he'll have to build his own site (which it
           | is already reported that he is doing.)
        
         | ceilingcorner wrote:
         | This is kind of a use-case for Bitcoin, no?
        
           | capableweb wrote:
           | It's the planned/future use-case for Bitcoin, yes. As of now,
           | you cannot pay a lot of your daily expenses with Bitcoin so
           | you still need a way of going from Bitcoin to
           | USD/EUR/$LOCAL_CURRENCY so instead of Visa and Mastercard
           | being the gatekeepers, the centralized exchange facilitating
           | the fiat-trade is now the gatekeeper instead.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | Not exactly future. It happened in 2014 when MasterCard and
             | visa banned payments to wikileaks. Wikileaks continued to
             | take Bitcoin.
        
       | abhinav22 wrote:
       | Substack's business model doesn't make sense. They are just using
       | VC money to try and build social platform, but it's a flawed one
       | at best:
       | 
       | - MOST people will not want to pay for articles. Especially in an
       | ever increasing world of subscription payments across tv, music,
       | SaaS, I really don't see how email newsletters will be high on
       | people's lists
       | 
       | - for the quality writers that people do want to pay, they will
       | eventually move off the platform if it makes sense to do so (ie
       | they get their brand recognition and followers and then jump ship
       | to their own website). For the smaller ones, patreon onlyfans or
       | some other direct contribution model would make more sense IMO
       | 
       | So I really don't get Substack's model and how it can be
       | successful long term unless it truly becomes the landing page /
       | YouTube of articles. Which I can't imagine it will with all the
       | competition
       | 
       | More generally I'm looking forward to the day where the SaaS
       | bubble bursts a bit or at least pricing consolidates - every Tom,
       | Dick and Harry is taking a crud app and adding a few features and
       | trying to create a b2c or b2b business
       | 
       | It works to some degree, but I'm looking forward to the day that
       | there are enough programming specialists that many solutions are
       | done in house
       | 
       | As to substack, it's a very simple technology stack; really the
       | play with it and all other vc funded startups is to spend big,
       | grab marketplace / users and exit. Then the buyer needs to
       | monetize or is left holding the bag
       | 
       | I'm much more of a fan of the Medium model, and even there it's
       | very hard for writers and for the platform to make reasonable
       | money.
       | 
       | It's interesting how substack is asking everyone to bring their
       | own mailing list with them, it's a very smart way to build out
       | their users / network, I give them that.
        
         | bhupy wrote:
         | I guess my questions are:
         | 
         | - Does it have to appeal to "MOST" people for it to be a viable
         | dividends-paying business?
         | 
         | - Does it have to be the "landing page / YouTube of articles"
         | in order to be a viable dividends-paying business?
        
           | abhinav22 wrote:
           | Both these questions are related in the sense it reflects how
           | large the audience needs to be to a viable business.
           | 
           | Question is how much VC money has been burnt on it - perhaps
           | it's bootstrapped well and it can succeed at a much smaller
           | scale; it's definitely possible.
           | 
           | However in the long run, it's somewhat of an easily
           | replicable stack / feature set, particularly as I assume that
           | most highly successful writers would want to control their
           | branding and prefer not to be on substack if they could reach
           | the same audience.
           | 
           | Which they likely can't. Substack'a SEO abilities will be key
           | to its success as that is in many ways it's main feature
           | (everything else can be replicated by any one of the millions
           | of web developers out there).
           | 
           | In that sense, becoming the landing page of bookworms would
           | be a significant achievement and to answer your question an
           | important goal for any considerable success.
           | 
           | I base this on the fact that it seems like they have spent a
           | fair bit in building the platform and it's not as
           | bootstrapped / low in capital as it may need to be to be
           | viable as a smaller entity. But I'm guessing very much here!
           | 
           | Is it really that different to hosting blogs, personal
           | websites or to Medium.com? They just have the mailing list
           | feature, but for most that doesn't work because it takes a
           | long time to build your own mailing list, so the target
           | audience of writers is small.
           | 
           | My 2c
        
             | bhupy wrote:
             | > Both these questions are related in the sense it reflects
             | how large the audience needs to be to a viable business.
             | 
             | But as long as the unit economics are positive, why does
             | the audience size matter? AFAIK, Substack's OPEX looks a
             | lot more like traditional software/SaaS businesses and a
             | lot less like Uber's or Amazon's.
             | 
             | You're right that Substack's functionality can be
             | commoditized, but loads of successful dividends-paying
             | businesses operate in commoditized spaces.
        
         | fra wrote:
         | > More generally I'm looking forward to the day where the SaaS
         | bubble bursts a bit or at least pricing consolidates - every
         | Tom, Dick and Harry is taking a crud app and adding a few
         | features and trying to create a b2c or b2b business
         | 
         | I see these "I could build this in a weekend" type responses
         | regularly on HN, and in my opinion it could not be more wrong.
         | Substack isn't a CRUD app with a few features, it is man-years
         | of work on the technical side. More importantly, they've had
         | amazing execution on the business and product side. Building a
         | business is really hard, and because you could replicate
         | substack-the-app does not mean you would can build substack-
         | the-business.
         | 
         | > It works to some degree, but I'm looking forward to the day
         | that there are enough programming specialists that many
         | solutions are done in house
         | 
         | What a waste this would be! Starting a business today is
         | tractable because we build on the shoulders of giants. Tools
         | like JIRA, Github, Sentry, Salesforce, Hubspot, Zoom, Slack,
         | Notion, Stripe, GSuite, ... and many more are so much better
         | and cheaper than anything you'd build in house.
        
           | abhinav22 wrote:
           | The business side of things - very difficult to pull off, I
           | agree. The pure technical side of things? I honestly could
           | replicate within 3 months of full time work and I'm sure a
           | fair few others could.
           | 
           | Thing is in theory, SaaS / Cloud should be win-win due to
           | specialization. However the pricing I have seen is anything
           | but - they need to charge that to support the sky high
           | valuations and funding rounds. Which is why most scramble to
           | do vendor lock in because without a barrier to entry they
           | will need to keep reducing their prices down the equilibrium
           | level that others can charge and have normal (but not
           | abnormally high) economic profits.
           | 
           | To give you an example, I was quoted 12,000$ per year for an
           | enterprise b2b database solution to record questionnaire
           | answers. Great software, meeting a need we have. But I'm
           | building a basic postgresql database and a very basic web
           | front end for free in its place. 80% of the functionality, 0%
           | of the cost.
           | 
           | I admit the remaining last 20% is the most complex and
           | hardest part; also marketing and all the business aspect is a
           | whole another game. So I have no intentions trying to compete
           | with them, I respect them but at the same time I can't
           | justify to my company to spend 12,000$ per year for something
           | that an in-house solution can cover most of. Even my CEO said
           | - isn't that just a database?
           | 
           | This case doesn't apply generally, but there should be enough
           | examples of SaaS that can be replicated and we don't need to
           | pay an inordinate fee to use. I would place substack firmly
           | in this list - it is a mailing list software with a text
           | editor (I wouldn't be surprised if they just reused TinyMCE
           | for this).
        
             | fra wrote:
             | > To give you an example, I was quoted 12,000$ per year for
             | an enterprise b2b database solution to record questionnaire
             | answers. Great software, meeting a need we have. But I'm
             | building a basic postgresql database and a very basic web
             | front end for free in its place. 80% of the functionality,
             | 0% of the cost.
             | 
             | Your ROI calculation is wrong. Your homegrown solution
             | costs you [your hourly wage] x [hours spent working on it]
             | + infrastructure costs. If you have an engineer who spends
             | 3 or more weeks a year on this (incl. initial development
             | cost amortized over # of years), then you lost money.
             | 
             | Worst, you spent time building a commoditized solution
             | which you could have spent improving your own product!
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jger15 wrote:
       | "...it's not that Substack will compete with existing
       | publications for their best writers, but rather that Substack
       | makes it easy for the best writers to discover their actual
       | market value."
       | 
       | Thompson on point per usual
        
         | purple_ferret wrote:
         | IMO it should read more:
         | 
         | "...it's not that Substack will compete with existing
         | publications for their *popular* writers, but rather that
         | Substack makes it easy for the *popular* writers to discover
         | their actual market value."
         | 
         | I've yet to read what I would consider high quality journalism
         | on Substack. It's a lot of quick take opinion pieces.
         | 
         | On top of that, some may consider journalistic good writing a
         | collective effort, in which an editor is usually necessary.
        
           | coldtea wrote:
           | > _I 've yet to read what I would consider high quality
           | journalism on Substack. It's a lot of quick take opinion
           | pieces._
           | 
           | Most of what passes for "high quality journalism" in "high
           | quality outlets" are fluff pieces and government/corporate PR
           | masquerading as facts.
           | 
           | And as Alan Kay said: "a point of view is worth 80 IQ
           | points". I'd rather read the opinion of people with well
           | honed points of view than what passes as news in mainstream
           | media.
        
             | glennismyfren wrote:
             | Glenn Greenwald has written a number of very good pieces on
             | his Substack that I would in no way describe as quick take
             | opinion pieces and Matt Taibbi has the best reporting on
             | the journalism industry itself going around. These guys are
             | "well honed" because they're well read on the activities of
             | the media and they think and communicate clearly
             | 
             | Maybe you're not reading the right posts or you just agree
             | with the prevailing narrative in the traditional outlets?
             | 
             | Usually I find the people who don't see value in Substack
             | also want the news to be reported with "moral clarity" and
             | to eschew objectivity as a valuable aim entirely.
             | 
             | And besides, the mainstream outlets are barely reporting on
             | anything anyway (where's the national news coverage of the
             | George Floyd Autonomous Zone in Minneapolis? For the second
             | time an American city has lost sovereignty over several
             | blocks and the mainstream media is ignoring it) and if you
             | do real investigative journalism into the wrong group, like
             | Andy Ngo has (thank God for Quillette) you are branded a
             | fascist
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | And that raises a question. What will readers value? Will they
         | value rigorous writers who may provide discomfort or engaging
         | writers who write to choirs?
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | Presumably different audiences will prefer different writers,
           | as they always have.
        
             | jameshart wrote:
             | One of the dangers is that it turns out audiences actually
             | prefer writers constrained and filtered and checked by
             | editors.
             | 
             | But by the time they realize that, editors won't exist any
             | more.
        
               | 1123581321 wrote:
               | Do we know how many writers on
               | Substack/Medium/independent blogs employ an editor or
               | researcher in some capacity? I've only seen occasional
               | mention, e.g., Kevin Kelly has said that he employs a
               | librarian as a full time researcher. But the absence of
               | mention isn't necessarily a strong indicator to the
               | negative.
        
               | browningstreet wrote:
               | Let's hear it for the NYTs!
        
               | soneca wrote:
               | Very unlikely that they won't exist anymore.
               | 
               | And whichever low number they are reduced to, they will
               | start to grow again because there will be people willing
               | to pay for their services.
        
               | Meekro wrote:
               | I'd like my journalists to be constrained by the truth,
               | and paid editors in the context of a "traditional"
               | newspaper are one possible way to achieve that. However,
               | if you believe the stats on this, trust for traditional
               | news sources is at record lows.
               | 
               | I personally don't trust traditional news sources very
               | much. Therefore, I'm open to trying something different.
               | I've been a happy subscriber to a handful of Substack
               | journalists for a few months now. It's too soon to say
               | whether this will be a lasting improvement, but it's hard
               | to do worse than the mainstream media.
        
               | jimkleiber wrote:
               | I'm curious, as I tend to trust many of the large media
               | outlets, especially the NYT and WaPo.
               | 
               | 1) Which outlets do you consider to be the "mainstream
               | media" or "traditional media"?
               | 
               | And 2) why don't you trust them?
        
             | mc32 wrote:
             | Yes but like food diet, is junk food more profitable or are
             | staples more profitable?
             | 
             | What should we aim for?
             | 
             | If junk is more profitable, is that okay? Do we all jump on
             | that wagon while the going is good, or do we think a minute
             | about what is more fulfilling?
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Media outlets other than substack are also hiring
               | terrible people, and optimizing for trash.
               | 
               | To me the largest difference between large corporate
               | outlets and substack (and other reader-financed
               | journalists) is that large corporate outlets will keep
               | people employed for years that nobody wants to read and
               | could never support themselves independently -
               | journalists who are only important and interesting
               | _because of_ their access to the outlet. The outlets
               | themselves keep those journalists around as pure vehicles
               | for the opinions of their owners.
               | 
               | At least with these outlets, the owners are the readers.
               | If the readers like trash, they'll pay for trash. If the
               | owners like quality, they'll demand it. I don't have to
               | worry about how the subject of the article will affect
               | Bezos's net worth, or wonder how David Brooks, Maureen
               | Dowd, or Thomas Friedman are still employed.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | But still, we're not sure that the content will be free
               | of external influence taking advantage of the writer's
               | reputation.
               | 
               | Obviously if they peddle too many interested articles
               | they'll likely get caught, but if they do it once in a
               | while or take payment from opposing interests, etc.,
               | who'll know the difference?
        
               | jeffreyrogers wrote:
               | Obviously trash sells and it always has ("The person who
               | writes for fools is always sure of a large audience"),
               | but some people care more about things like truth and
               | style than they do about money.
        
               | madmadjo wrote:
               | This is the world we're living in. Unfortunately, I can
               | give you only one upvote...
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | There is no "we" here, certainly not in the sense that
               | "do we think a minute". People can choose for themselves
               | just fine, and they'll do so whether I wring my hands
               | about it or not. If you want to be worried about other
               | people, go ahead but leave me out of it. :)
        
       | tarkin2 wrote:
       | Vaguely off topic, but why do so many programmers use substack
       | and medium to write about programming? Why not use their own
       | programming skills to create their own website, rather than
       | consume a service?
       | 
       | I used to love visiting programmers' websites, where programmer's
       | would use their skills to not only write, but create. Now it's
       | largely a drab stream of medium posts.
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | You can still go to programmers' sites where the software is
         | written by the programmer as well as the content.
         | 
         | The answer to your question is the same as the one to "Why do
         | software engineers use libraries?"
        
         | Traster wrote:
         | Well there's two reasons. Firstly, you're not producing a
         | competitive advantage by writing your own site. Unless you have
         | some specific purpose, why would you waste your time. Let's
         | assume it takes you a couple of weeks, that's probably
         | thousands of dollars of lost wages when you can use substack,
         | medium or even wordpress for basically free.
         | 
         | Secondly, whilst these companies are _trying_ to claim the
         | responsibility of a peice of infrastructure, they 're actually
         | trying to be publishers, they control discoverability. You go
         | to substack because you want to scoop of some of that substack
         | readership, you want to be part of their "webring" and hope
         | that you get more readership whilst they monetize your activity
         | by telling VCs they have their boot on your neck.
        
         | organsnyder wrote:
         | Only so many hours in a day. Perhaps setting up and operating a
         | blogging platform isn't how they'd prefer to use their time.
         | 
         | When I ran my own business, I had the skills to do everything
         | myself: accounting, order fulfillment, _everything_. I created
         | a kick-ass system that saved me hours of work for things like
         | calculating and disbursing royalty checks (it was a publishing
         | business). Sure, it was better than off-the-shelf software, but
         | I would have been able to dedicate a lot more time to the core
         | of my business--the part where I was creating truly unique
         | value--if I had hired an accountant, or at least used off-the-
         | shelf software.
        
         | drcode wrote:
         | LOL I built my own blogging platform for my personal site, but
         | I get constant nagging for not handling permalinks in the
         | expected way and for never implementing RSS. (lisperati.com)
        
         | oh_sigh wrote:
         | I host my content on other services because I have a full time
         | job, a family, and interests outside of tech. Even though I can
         | do it all myself, what's the point? I get paid well into 6
         | figures for my tech job. What are the odds my blog will start
         | generating that kind of revenue? Basically zero. And I can talk
         | about things I actually do create on my blog, even if my blog
         | is hosted on substack or medium. I just can't point to my
         | actual blog hosting itself as something I created. But that's
         | fine, because it isn't even a particularly interesting problem
         | to solve. I'd be fairly unimpressed if someone was doing
         | general purpose programming for a couple of years and couldn't
         | throw together a barebones blog.
        
         | tarboreus wrote:
         | Network effects. Medium and Substack help discoverability. It's
         | trivial to geta site online, but difficult to have people come
         | across it.
        
           | pier25 wrote:
           | I don't know about Substack, but when I wrote on Medium the
           | vast majority of readers came from outside of Medium.
           | 
           | I don't remember the exact numbers, but I had a popular
           | article with something like 170k reads of which only 15% came
           | from Medium itself.
        
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