[HN Gopher] Intel Unleashed, Gelsinger on Intel, IDM 2.0 ___________________________________________________________________ Intel Unleashed, Gelsinger on Intel, IDM 2.0 Author : kaboro Score : 204 points Date : 2021-03-24 15:38 UTC (7 hours ago) (HTM) web link (stratechery.com) (TXT) w3m dump (stratechery.com) | paulpan wrote: | Great keynote and clearly it's a massive improvement to have a | former silicon veteran at the helm again at Intel. For all the | major announcements made, I think looking at them in context of | the industry and other competitors reveals some interesting | nuances: | | 1. This is Intel's proverbial hailmary rather than "unleashed". | The industry is moving on from x86 and with its other bets (e.g. | radio modem, mobileeye) not paid/paying off, the revenue will | quickly nosedive within the next few years. | | 2. IDM 2.0 is an involuntary move due to Intel's loss of both | performance leadership (to AMD/ARM) and fabrication node | leadership (to TSMC). Clearly their factories are becoming | liabilities and opening up to outside business cushions the | freefall. | | 3. 2023 is a long time away in the silicon industry. As pointed | out in Stratechery, 7nm is actually further delayed than what Bob | Swan previously announced. Apple is rumored to be on TSMC 3nm | this year and AMD will likely move down to 5nm by next year. | Unless Meteor Lake is a massive performance uplift, then it may | not change the overall trajectory. Intel's saving grace at this | point is the capacity constraints at both TSMC and Samsung. | MangoCoffee wrote: | >7nm is actually further delayed than what Bob Swan previously | announced | | Intel can't even solve their 10nm yield problem. Its great to | have another foundry but Intel needs to step up. | colinmhayes wrote: | Sounds like Intel has solved 10nm and is confident it'll | release on desktop this year. | totalZero wrote: | > mobileeye) not paid/paying off | | Uh, what? Mobileye bagged $333mm in revenue last quarter. | | See for yourself: | | https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9ea32bedbda3919ea6d9a1... | ksec wrote: | >Apple is rumored to be on TSMC 3nm this year | | Not sure where that rumour are from. But TSMC 3nm is next year. | | If Gelsinger didn't lie, and the original 7nm schedule and spec | were unchanged, the 100% increase in EUV usage would actually | put it close to if not on par with TSMC 3nm. Although they will | still be a year and a half behind TSMC. | | And technically 7nm are taping out this year. The only reason | why volume product wont come until 2023 is because Intel has a | SuperComputer contract to fill with the US DOE. | | Both Intel 5nm and TSMC 2nm will transition to GAAFET. But I | guess Intel ( Pat ) want us to focus on the strategic changes | rather than the detail of future roadmap. | paulpan wrote: | Agreed, TSMC 3nm is slated for full-production next year | (2022) but risk production is end of this year. | https://www.anandtech.com/show/16024/tsmc-details-3nm- | proces... | | It depends on how Apple maneuvers. Mobile chips (A15) are | high volume so very unlikely to get moved but it's certainly | possible for the lower-volume Mac products, e.g. M2/M1X for | Macbook/iMac, to switch onto leading-node 3nm if yields are | good. | | Apple is certainly incentivized as it'd allow them to | continue the narrative that their own SOCs are superior to | anything else on the market. | bredren wrote: | >Apple is certainly incentivized as it'd allow them to | continue the narrative that their own SOCs are superior to | anything else on the market. | | Hasn't this narrative been largely shaped around | performance impact on customer experiences? | | Recall the announcement video which was decried as | "marketing hype" by some tech voices prior to release. | | If so, M2/M1X should be able to continue this narrative on | a performance basis alone regardless of whether they make | the jump to 3nm. | sagarm wrote: | Apple M1 is on TSMC 5nm; Ryzen 3 is on TSMC 7nm and Intel | is famously still on an (advanced) 14nm process. | | A big chunk of Apple's power advantage (which can | translate to better perf as well, since the key limits | are thermal) can be attributed to the process node, | though we won't know how much for sure until we get an | apples to apples comparison. I agree with Gap, retaining | the process node advantage will help sustain and entrench | the perception that Apple's chips are better, easing the | transition. | cjblomqvist wrote: | 3. It should be noted though that Intels 7nm will most likely | be close to TSMCs 5nm. Regardless they're obviously lagging | behind. | readams wrote: | They should also announce a switch to the more fantastical nm | sizes as well in their next node. | MR4D wrote: | Looks like you got downvoted for this, but honestly, I | wonder how much INTC gets dinged in the stock market | because of this. | | No idea how to measure the impact, but I'm sure it's in the | tens of billions. | | It doesn't even matter if it's right or wrong - it matters | because the headline of 7nm vs 5nm sucks for INTC stock. | | I think Intel could easily put some marketing language | about shifting to an "industry standard measurement | practice" or something similar (remember, it's not for | techies, but the people who buy INTC stock). | gumby wrote: | While I agree 100%, I feel compelled to point out that it | was Intel who for years embraced and encouraged the | bullshit use of clock speed as _the_ metric of performance. | | Entirely precise yet only partially meaningful, which is | just as true of the chase for node bragging rights. | | So there's some karmic justice in Intel being pilloried for | being behind in this way. | totalZero wrote: | Not quite. Node numbers don't actually correspond to | transistor gate length. So it would be like one company | saying "we run at 3GHz" and the other saying "we run at | 4GHz" when both run at 4GHz. | | Separately, what you are saying is true -- size is not | the be-all-end-all of processor performance. But GP is | referring to the dislocation between nomenclature and | geometry. | ghaff wrote: | That's because Intel was on the single-threaded | performance bandwagon for at least one beat too long. | (Which was at the time of AMD's first renaissance with | Opteron and multi-core.) Which a certain Intel exec--I | was an analyst at the time--told me was because Microsoft | had such a lack of confidence in their ability to pivot | to multi-core architectures. And I have no reason to | especially disbelieve that. | | Interestingly, the shift to multi-core on the desktop | hasn't been the big problem that a lot of people feared | it would be. I remember hobbling on crutches cross- | country to SF for an Intel quad core (?) launch and there | was a lot of hand-wringing on the topic but mostly things | worked out. | gumby wrote: | Even considering only single core machines, so much | affects workload throughput: thermals, IO system, IO | devices...punters were paying a premium for "high speed" | laptops that were slower than a desktop with the same | clock speed. | | This bit Apple too when they boasted of their PPC clock | speed, only to fall behind in both clock speed and | performance. (I'm a Mac user: this is bipartisan | criticism). | | I'd say I'm glad those days are over, but of course the | deceptive metrics have merely been replaced with | different deceptive metrics. | _carbyau_ wrote: | This just seems like Intel's version of Amazon's AWS. | | "Hey we have a world class [whatever] over here. Wonder if we | can sell it to the world as well as using it for our business?" | SavantIdiot wrote: | I'm curious to see if Gelsinger can fix Intel's 127x fiascos | (there are multiple). It's not like the process engineers are | sitting around scratching their butts, they are on call nonstop | and I know two that have quit due to pressure. He can't drive the | engineers any harder, so how is he going to fix it? | ac29 wrote: | For those not in the know, the 127x processes include Intel's | 10nm, 7nm, and 5nm manufacturing. I had to look it up. | | I'm under the impression 10nm is largely working by now, it | just took a _long_ time to become competitive with Intel 's | ultra optimized 14nm process. Supposedly they have already | shipped 100K+ units of Ice Lake Xeon Scalable CPUs: | https://www.anandtech.com/show/16539/intel-ice-lake-xeon-sca... | ahartmetz wrote: | Smarter, not harder, seems to be the solution ;) | | Like, say, giving the engineers more say in the goals for the | next process(es) to make them achievable. Talking, not ruling. | SavantIdiot wrote: | That statement is cliche for a reason: because there's no way | to make the distinction and is entirely subjective. I want to | hear his concrete actions from my friends that are still | fighting the good fight and haven't quit. | jerrysievert wrote: | I had always wondered why intel hadn't been actively fabbing | chips for other customers - it's not like they destroy a fab | completely when a new process comes on line (if you live in the | Portland area, you can see the rapid and constant build outs of | fab space), why not sell that process to others? there does | happen to be a global chip shortage after all. | | nice to see someone addressing that. I welcome technical | leadership back to intel. | paulpan wrote: | I think it was largely due to their historically bleeding edge | fabrication tech/node and market share. Until the recent | resurgence of AMD and rise of ARM, Intel was able to sell out | their inventory and keep their fabs at 100% capacity. | | But given the combination of losing the node advantage to TSMC | and performance advantage to AMD & ARM, I'm guessing Intel has | accumulated inventory and this poses a business risk. Opening | up their fabs in the future is a way to mitigate this risk; | essentially becoming both a chip seller and external | manufacturer. | | The other reason is probably textbook monopolistic behavior: | vertical integration means if you want top tier chips, there | was no other option but Intel. Often overlooked is how closely | correlated fabrication node is to chip performance, e.g. if | Apple's M1 is fabbed at TSMC 7nm instead of 5nm, the | performance wouldn't be so widely lauded. | MangoCoffee wrote: | >why intel hadn't been actively fabbing chips for other | customers | | Intel foundry have to be a pure play in order to win customers | trust. Apple move away from Samsung and now a core customer of | TSMC, trust is an issue. | meepmorp wrote: | Is that for IntelFoundaries giving newer process node | capacity preferentially to Intel, or corporate IP theft | reasons? Or something else I hadn't considered. | ksec wrote: | >or corporate IP theft reasons | | This. It is the reason why Apple dont Fab their SoC with | Samsung Foundry. | jerrysievert wrote: | not all things that need to be fabbed are cpu/gpu | components though, there are plenty of other things that | need fab space. | ksec wrote: | That was in the context of parents point of Apple / | Samsung or Intel / Nvidia and AMD. | | If you have no direct competition with them then of | course you can Fab with Samsung. | Marsymars wrote: | Has something changed since Apple fabbed the A9 with | Samsung? | macintux wrote: | Did they? I see reports at the time claiming that would | be the case, but more recent sources indicate it never | happened, that TSMC has been Apple's sole supplier since | 2015. | Nokinside wrote: | There is huge demand for for 14nm, 22 nm and 45nm processes. | | When fab is 4-5 years old, they start to manufacture other | products. Different CPU's, chipsets, SoCs, microcontrollers, | NICs, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chipsets, vechicle SoC's for Intel | and Intel customers. | gumby wrote: | Lower margin parts. A good business, but when you have a high | margin high volume product, Wall Street considers anything | else is to be subtractive from earnings. | | This is the microeconomic equivalent of the "dutch disease" | extesy wrote: | I wonder if Intel is also going to increase compensation across | the board to be able to execute on this bold plan. Historically, | Intel's salaries were among the lowest and it has been losing | talent left and right to its chip-making competitors (Apple, | Nvidia, etc). | deadalus wrote: | IDM = Internet Download Manager , in most people's mind | IncRnd wrote: | > IDM = Internet Download Manager , in most people's mind | | IDM in _most_ people 's minds is Intelligent Dance Music. | | But, in Tech I am familiar with many people using IDM for | IDentity Management. When I was associated with a different | Tech vertical than I am now, people used IDM as an acronym for | Integrated Document Mangement. | technofiend wrote: | Eh? | | IDM = _Industrial_ Dance Music for me. I guess there are a | few definitions floating around. | monocasa wrote: | Industrial sort of lost the war for IDM, and the Industrial | Dance Music genre is now called EBM "Electronic Body | Music". | pantulis wrote: | Was going the say the same, it's "Industrial" for me, but | I've also heard the term referred to "Intelligent". | IncRnd wrote: | True. Industrial Dance Music is not the same as Intelligent | Dance Music. | ece wrote: | x86 is IP, Intel Foundry Services is new, and EUV has been | embraced. I'm not sure you could ask for more other than | execution. | phcordner wrote: | I see the "geopolitical" angle again and it's still not | vindicated by this announcement. Nothing that Gelsinger said | indicated he came to those decisions by seeing what was cookin' | on the threat board: | | > We are committed to ensuring this capacity will support | commercial customers, as well as address unique government and | security requirements in the U.S. | | Geographic distribution makes a certain amount of business sense | and getting those nice DoD contracts makes even more. | | What doesn't make sense is China having Wing Attack Plan R ready | to go against TSMC and Samsung. | kcorbitt wrote: | Seems like the biggest news here is Intel committing strongly to | its fab business. Walling that division off from Intel's own chip | design business is critical to giving it a chance to succeed. | Having a third fab with competitive tech (along with TSMC and | Samsung) is great for the world! | | This is pretty bad for Taiwan geopolitically though... once US | chipmakers have a plausible local manufacturing alternative, the | US is less likely to risk WW3 by standing up to China if/when it | tries to annex Taiwan. | foobarbazetc wrote: | This is a simplistic view that assumes every other factor and | actor remains static. | davedx wrote: | I don't think a keynote is bad for Taiwan geopolitically. Intel | have a ton of cash on their balance sheet, but they still need | to _execute_ on this strategy. It astounds me what people take | at face value here, considering the incredible momentum Intel | needs to turn its ship around. It reminds me of Elon promising | coast to coast FSD. | | I also think China/TSMC is more of an economic than an | existential risk. The US military doesn't need 2nm | semiconductors. US manufacturers are more than capable of | supplying essential US supply chains. They're just not cutting | edge like the East Asian fabs are. | Nursie wrote: | IIRC TSMC is planning on building fab capacity in the US soon | anyway, which adds a new twist to that tale. | varispeed wrote: | I wish TSMC decided to go with the UK. We have ARM here, RPi | and others plus very talented people. Hopefully one day it | will happen. | Nokinside wrote: | TSMC builds only 25K/month 5nm megafab in Arizona. I suspect | that it's mainly for serving the US defense needs. | | TSMC's GIGAFABs (> 100K/month) are used for mass | manufacturing bleeding edge consumer electronics. They are | still build only in Taiwan. | avs733 wrote: | Another way of looking at TSMC's Arizona fab is similar FAB | 68 in Dalian, which still seems to have largely been built | for strategic relationship building purposes. | craigjb wrote: | TSMC's plans for Arizona have been increased to start with | 100k per month with future phases up to 200k [1] | | [1] https://technosports.co.in/2021/03/03/tsmc-to- | build-5nm-plan... | gumby wrote: | To double click on that: TSMC has been playing the | geostrategic game for a while. Taiwan wasn't simply a good | choice because it had labor, transport access, and a | supportive government: it played to certain Cold War issues. | | Then as the mainland market developed they increased their | mainland footprint as a hedge (makes it harder for the | Chinese government to attack TSMC, though as we've seen from | Alibaba, Xi appears happy to "move fast and break things"). | That did in fact forestall investment in a competitor until | recently. | | They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, | distributing their capacity and developing support in the USA | and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between China and | Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. | | Hon Hai has followed the same geostrategy (to even greater | extreme) with its Foxconn subsidiary. | baybal2 wrote: | > They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, | distributing their capacity and developing support in the | USA and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between | China and Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. | | Very unlikely. In case of a shooting war, the industry will | run out of consumables sooner, or later. As a fact, 90%+ of | them come from the Taiwan/Japan/Korea triangle, and just | any military move in the region will be effectively | shutting the industry down globally. | cogman10 wrote: | > Seems like the biggest news here is Intel committing strongly | to its fab business. Walling that division off from Intel's own | chip design business is critical to giving it a chance to | succeed. Having a third fab with competitive tech (along with | TSMC and Samsung) is great for the world! | | Yes and no. This is also a possible signal that Intel is | getting ready to go fabless. AMD made similar moves with | Globalfoundries before parting ways. | sremani wrote: | For the foreseeable future owning Fabs is fastest way to be | subsidized by American tax payer. | | Intel may make it modular, but Intel will still own those | fabs. I do not see them spinning fabs as separate business at | least for the decade of 20s. | davedx wrote: | Intel already signalled that under their last CEO. Then they | signalled something else. Now there's a "best keynote ever" | with their latest signalling.... | UncleOxidant wrote: | Going fabless by building new fabs? | rllearneratwork wrote: | we (US voters) should be pressing our government to stand up | for Taiwan against ccp's bullying. | curiousgal wrote: | Palestine too since we're pretending to care about the small | guy. | | This isn't an attempt to start a debate, just saying that the | U.S. won't intervene unless there's material gain, regardless | of what the voters want. | meepmorp wrote: | > This isn't an attempt to start a debate, | | It's really more of a petrol bomb, yeah. | | Realpolitik is what it is, but in this case standing up for | the cause of Taiwanese freedom against (mainland) Chinese | aggression aligns fairly well with the current political | climate in the US. I'm willing to accidentally do the right | thing if we have to. | vkou wrote: | Instead of worrying about Palestine, why not stop our own | bullying in Central and South America, first? | thereddaikon wrote: | They are. The last few years have caused a fairly major | change in American's attitude towards China and Taiwan. In | the past the US gave Taiwan half hearted support, some tech | here, old destroyers there etc. Their military was a mix of | obsolete hand me downs and domestically developed solutions. | But we just sold them the latest and greatest F-16 variant. | Just the other day a deal was signed to share technology to | help Taiwan develop modern submarines. And there's a lot more | going on behind the scenes no doubt. | Der_Einzige wrote: | Trump's policies towards communist china were so bad that | rex tilerson is on record as saying that at the end of his | time working for trump we were farther behind with china | than we were when he took office. | | Biden has to repair our US hegemony. Trump sure hurt it a | lot in spite of his anti-china rehtoric. | | Selling weapons to taiwan doesn't contain china. We will | send our own guns if a hot war is brewing there. | | Taiwan recognition is not the same thing as meaningfully | containing china. The TPP and asia pivot from obama was the | last time that america seriously tried to restrain the rise | of china. | VRay wrote: | You mean this? This is what you wanted? | https://www.eff.org/issues/tpp | Der_Einzige wrote: | I personally oppose the TPP on the intellectual property | grounds et al brought up here - but its purpose to | contain china is what I was highlighting. | ethbr0 wrote: | Parent's point was the TPP was explicitly designed to | economically isolate China from its neighbors. | | Trade deals are ugly. | | But if your geopolitical goal is to prevent Asia from | moving closer to China, you can, and we have, done worse | than the TPP. | bellyfullofbac wrote: | Yeah, and then Trump pulled out of TPP, and last year | everyone signed this deal, including China: https://en.wi | kipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economi... | | And people still celebrate Trump for being tough on | China... | xxpor wrote: | Whoop de do. Yeah the copyright stuff sucks but a hot war | sucks worse. Don't lose the forest for the trees here. | mlyle wrote: | > Selling weapons to taiwan doesn't contain china. We | will send our own guns if a hot war is brewing there. | | All of these states need to be strong enough to be a | credible deterrent to invasion on their own. | | US support is neither speedy nor certain. And a speedy | capitulation by Taiwan compromises the US's ability to | help even if willing. | tlear wrote: | Original step to help with manufacturing of the subs came | when US brokered a deal with MHI 3 years ago. The somehow | magically "retired" MHI engineers appeared in Taiwan to | help in development | | US does not have expertise to make modern non-nuclear subs. | China can intimidate anyone in Europe not to sell. It was | fortunate for Taiwan that Chinese pissed off Japan enough. | Half a dozen of Soryu knockoffs can shut down PRC maritime | trade if needed. | meepmorp wrote: | We should also be realistic about the strategic risks of | having such a heavy dependency on semiconductor fabrication | that's within easy reach of the PLA. Mitigating that risk is | critical, and orthogonal to resisting the PRC's aggression | towards the RoC. | greggyb wrote: | It is unlikely that Nvidia and AMD will want to use Intel as | their foundry. It is unlikely that Intel would be willing to | offer pricing compelling enough to entice those two to use | their foundries. | | So long as TSMC and Samsung remain competitive (note, this | doesn't mean better, just close enough -- better is also fine), | I expect the vast majority of AMD and Nvidia chips to be | manufactured by those two. | redisman wrote: | > It is unlikely that Nvidia and AMD will want to use Intel | as their foundry. | | Why not? Nvidia seems to be very pragmatic in their foundry | picks on what's available for example. | jvalencia wrote: | If the foundry business can create a competitive product that | saves Nvidia/AMD manufacturing costs, they'll pay. Business | allegiances change all the time when it impacts the bottom | line. | greggyb wrote: | Yes. I didn't say that this wouldn't happen. I just | observed that none of the three players among AMD, Nvidia, | and Intel have an active interest in working together. | Practicality will trump, but I suspect that given a choice | among Intel and another closely-priced, competitive | foundry, both AMD and Nvidia will choose the latter. | ethbr0 wrote: | If the Intel foundry business creates supply, even for | people who are not Nvidia/AMD/Apple, they still win via | increased competition on TSMC and Samsung. | KoftaBob wrote: | Couldn't you say the same about smartphone makers using | Samsung's display panels, despite them being a direct | competitor? | User23 wrote: | Taiwan is already China's anytime they want to take it. Every | time the US games it out they get crushed. | valuearb wrote: | There is a cost to everything. | flente wrote: | Source? | User23 wrote: | https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air- | force-... and https://www.news.com.au/world/north- | america/the-us-could-no-... come up easily and those are | just some of the most recent. Happens every time. | | It helps of course that the PLA's primary objective is war | fighting whereas outside of special operations the US | military's priorities are more diversified. | baybal2 wrote: | > This is pretty bad for Taiwan geopolitically though... once | US chipmakers have a plausible local manufacturing alternative, | the US is less likely to risk WW3 by standing up to China | if/when it tries to annex Taiwan. | | I doubt it changes much to the demise of modern world. The | industry will still go down given that you have many, many, | many more things in the semiconductor supply chain that is run | by some single vendor in the world from Taiwan, and that | includes consumables too. | | US may get a modern fab, or two, but it will still eventually | run out of many know-how intensive inputs for those fabs. | MangoCoffee wrote: | judging from all the recent moves by TSMC with a fab in AZ and | opening a Japan subsidiary. i believe the TSMC leadership have | the same concern as you. the latest tech is probably going to | stay in Taiwan but TSMC is spreading out to reduce the risk. | thu2111 wrote: | I'm bullish on Intel. Having an engineer at the top will fix all | sorts of subtle problems quite quickly. Their manufacturing | process for both 10nm and 7nm are now supposedly back on track, | and yet they have a large backlog of designs waiting for the new | processes to ramp up. We may see rapid performance increases from | them now their pipeline is unblocked. | | Additionally, US politics is now aligning across the aisle | against China, and relying too heavily on TSMC looks like a | potential future geopolitical problem. Intel is the only firm | that can realistically keep up or out-fab TSMC and thus the USG | will be loathe to let it even look like it might fail. Simply | having fabs physically within your territory but managed by a | remote firm, is clearly no substitute for having fabs actually | managed by a domestic company (consider how many ways there must | be to do the equivalent of SSH-ing into a fab, or otherwise | subtly sabotage it from HQ). | jcheng wrote: | Is this year's claim of "supposedly back on track" more | credible than every previous year's? (Honest question!) | totalZero wrote: | If the first thing Gelsinger does in the new role is to lie | about progress, his credibility will be ruined. | | Conversely, if he were to say "it's worse than I feared," he | won't personally be blamed because the problem preceded his | return to Intel. | | So I think the claim can be viewed with a greater sense of | honesty than before. | valuearb wrote: | He just announced another delay to 7 nm. | hctaw wrote: | > Their manufacturing process for both 10nm and 7nm are now | supposedly back on track, and yet they have a large backlog of | designs waiting for the new processes to ramp up | | From what (little) I know of the industry this isn't a good | sign. Engineers working on the fab processes and packaging have | to work closely with designers throughout the product design | cycle, repeatedly taping out variations to fit onto the process | as it is built out. | | That's part of why Intel historically used the tick/tock design | cycle, designing a new thing to be built on a new process has a | multiplicative effect on the time to market because of the way | the unknown-unknowns of both sides impact each other, and the | large amount of specialized labor to mitigate everything. | | It doesn't help that they lost a ton of institutional knowledge | over the last decade to their competitors through layoffs | disproportionately hitting senior staff. | genericone wrote: | The way I've heard it is that the layoffs were | strategically/discriminatorily targeting senior staff, | because of course they are the ones with the most | institutional knowledge and therefore paid the most. | agloeregrets wrote: | > Intel is the only firm that can realistically keep up or out- | fab TSMC | | Samsung? | | Realistically, Intel needs a route to actually playing at | TSMC's game, currently they are instead working on paying TSMC | to make them chips. | | Also, nitpick here, but the TSMC problem is that China might | roll in tanks, not that China controls it. Realistically | speaking, it's a reasonable cause for US millitary involvement | if China did. Lol, there's my World War III Shark-jump Theory: | TSMC. | onepointsixC wrote: | Intel's new GPU's need the all the advantages they can get to | survive market entry. When Intel's process is ready, | shipping, and better then they can switch. | agloeregrets wrote: | From a product perspective, totally agree, but from a | strategy perspective, Intel getting to a level of beating | TSMC is very very far off. Currently they are funding the | development of the next chip that will beat them elsewhere. | | Personally, if Xe production funds TSMC's 3nm node that | will be bought out by Apple and AMD then Intel probably | should realize that the limited money they will make from | GPUs will be dwarfed by the losses from improving their | competition. | dathinab wrote: | Through don't forget that due to TSCM being overloaded with | requests and Intel having their own fabs they can still | sell chips for (for them) good prices even if they are | worse. | | In the end getting a CPU is normally more important then | getting the best CPU. | MangoCoffee wrote: | >TSMC problem is that China might roll in tanks | | TSMC have fab in China and currently building one in the US. | TSMC is also opening an expansion in Japan. | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-tsmc/tsmc-to- | raise... | | the latest tech is probably going to stay in Taiwan but | judging from all the recent moves by TSMC. it look like they | are spreading their wings to reduce the risk. | madspindel wrote: | Not just the US. 8% of the manufacturing is done in EU when | like 90% of the global supply is made with European ASML | machines... I don't think it was a coincidence that Gelsinger | mentioned national security, EU, and ASML in his speech. | craigjb wrote: | Keep in mind, a semiconductor fab has hundreds of other | machines and equipment involved, and US companies are some of | the biggest suppliers (Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA- | Tencor--all multi-billion dollar companies). | | Lithography is definitely key, but all the equipment and | process must work together. | BeetleB wrote: | > Having an engineer at the top will fix all sorts of subtle | problems quite quickly. | | Note that Intel's current fab problems were well underway when | there was an engineer on top, and that engineer was a fab | person. Pat is not. | onepointsixC wrote: | Same here. This looks like the exactly the right move Intel | needed. | | I don't think enough people fully appreciate that just about | the entire world's leading edge supply is located within cruise | missile range of China. The CCP could cripple the global | economy in under an hour. Having supply chains out of their | reach is not a nice to have, it is a must. | MarkSweep wrote: | I assume that China uses some TSMC chips. Though their "Made | in China 2025" plan involves creating more of their own | chips. | PaulHoule wrote: | My take is kinda the opposite. It is like a WWII movie where the | ship is rudderless and the enemy submarine is circling around and | they're wondering if they need one or two torpedoes to finish it | off and the captain is on the bridge shouting that the king is | still on the throne and the pound is still worth a pound. | | Intel becoming the best foundry in the world might be the only | way they can sell vastly more chips, but it's not easy; and it's | not being headed by a turnaround king, but rather the master of | harvesting (why is there still vmware around since virtualization | became a feature of chips and operating systems?) | mathgorges wrote: | > (why is there still vmware around since virtualization became | a feature of chips and operating systems?) | | Because VMware (mostly through acquisitions) makes a whole | bunch of other stuff now too. | anyfoo wrote: | > why is there still vmware around since virtualization became | a feature of chips and operating systems? | | Because, besides the need for a frontend, there's a lot of | devices to emulate. | xxpor wrote: | Any even then, it's like asking why VMWare still exists when | qemu is out there for free. Completely different markets. | walterclifford wrote: | > why is there still vmware around since virtualization became | a feature of chips and operating systems? | | If you take a look at https://www.vmware.com/products.html | you'll note the majority of VMware's products are NOT related | to compute virtualization (and a very significant entry from | that category, vSphere Hypervisor, is given away for free). | windexh8er wrote: | > why is there still vmware around since virtualization became | a feature of chips and operating systems? | | I'd have to say - if you think VMware is delivering only | virtualization to their customers then you probably haven't | looked at their portfolio as of recent. | | They have over 60 unique products that target many different | areas of compute in the enterprise. Gelsinger is generally | attributed for keeping VMware relevant. Not everybody is a | consumer of a hyperscaler and some customers want extended | enterprise functionality for virtualized (VM and containers) | environments. | gumby wrote: | Geslinger was smart to reference Grove: I think people at all | levels of Intel finally realize that their ship is on fire and | are willing to change. I believe the M1, though costing them a | very small amount of sales, was the true wake up call, despite | being just the most recent arrow from a flock of arrows that has | been piercing Intel for _decades_. | | If Intel can pull this off it will be one of the most impressive | recoveries in history, up there with Watson at IBM, Gerstner at | IBM, and Jobs' return to Apple. | | And if Intel can pull this off I wonder if someone will be able | to do the same for GE. | DetroitThrow wrote: | First time I've felt cautiously optimistic about 'Intel the | company' in 10+ years. I think it's possible Intel makes a | comeback, but it'll be several years. Hope the new IBM research | partnership becomes more integrated as well, I can only imagine | positive outcomes from trying to consolidate fundamental semi | research there. | | Compared to GE... there's been more structural changes to GE | over the years which would hurt its ability to regain a useful | position in vertical integration from where they're at - they | need multiple decades of long term planning to get around this, | especially as their industrial side becomes increasingly | costly. This is unlike Intel, who is still in a "good" position | to pivot on the reality that x86 is a lot less valuable | compared to 2009 into a more up-to-date vertical monopoly. | N1H1L wrote: | Is Su at AMD on par with those giants? | gumby wrote: | Yes, it was an oversight on my part. | nrp wrote: | Don't forget Lisa Su's turnaround of AMD as a more proximate | example! | gumby wrote: | Yes, that's an excellent one too! | ZeroCool2u wrote: | I'm sorry, I was totally on board and in full agreement with | your comment until you mentioned IBM. Am I correct in | understanding you're calling Watson a successful recovery for | IBM? Jobs returning to Apple, sure. But I don't think I know | anyone that would describe IBM as anything other than a | flagging behemoth. Please, feel free to convince me otherwise, | maybe I missed something. | gumby wrote: | I mean Thomas J. Watson Sr (turned CTR into IBM) and Thomas J | Watson Jr (turned IBM into a computer company), not the dumb | software platform that the sad, current IBM is overselling. | Perhaps you didn't realize why the program bears that name. | | Gerstner was astonishing too. I just thought of him as the | "cookie guy" when he showed up. But he saved a company that | was spiraling towards the ground...he didn't restore it to | its former glory but did bring it back to a successful life. | An achievement subsequently squandered. | ZeroCool2u wrote: | Oh, that makes so much more sense. Thanks so much for | clarifying! | kken wrote: | I guess he referred to Thomas J. Watson, not the "AI" Watson. | whatusername wrote: | You missed what Waston was named after. | | https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/silicon- | revolution/bu... | | S/360 was/is a big deal in history. | [deleted] ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-03-24 23:00 UTC)