[HN Gopher] What the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn't ___________________________________________________________________ What the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn't Author : sanj Score : 73 points Date : 2021-04-13 17:55 UTC (5 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.talyarkoni.org) (TXT) w3m dump (www.talyarkoni.org) | bitshiftfaced wrote: | Doesn't seem to be any discussion of Nuhfer's findings, which | showed that you could recreate the effect with just random data. | The bias comes from the process of manipulating normalized data: | https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol10/iss1/art4/ | smallnamespace wrote: | That's not quite true, the article's section on _regression to | the mean_ [1] largely covers the same territory as Nuhfer's | article (although Nuhfer never uses that precise phrase). | | Random noise is a primary reason that we see regression to the | mean in most contexts (the exception being actual deterministic | factors, such as seasonality, the restoring force of a spring, | etc.) | | The chain of reasoning goes like: Random | noise (Nuhfer) -> can cause regression to mean (covered | in the article) -> calls into question the Dunning- | Kruger effect | | [1] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean#Con... | antman wrote: | That implies that Dunning and Kruger percieved their work as | better than it was. | titzer wrote: | ...due directly to a lack of understanding of statistics. But | that just proves it. It's a Catch-22 !? | jvanderbot wrote: | This sounds like a confirmation. | | "Our results further confirm that experts are more proficient | in self-assessing their abilities than novices and that women, | in general, self-assess more accurately than men. The validity | of interpretations of data depends strongly upon how carefully | the researchers consider the numeracy that underlies graphical | presentations and conclusions. Our results indicate that | carefully measured self-assessments provide valid, measurable | and valuable information about proficiency" | bitshiftfaced wrote: | Confirmation would be if they found that those who were less | competent tended to overestimate their abilities when | compared to those who were more competent. They found that | this was not true. Instead, they found that people tend to | overestimate their abilities with the same likelihood as when | underestimating. | luu wrote: | > Doesn't seem to be any discussion of Nuhfer's findings . . . | | That's an interesting result, but I think it would be pretty | surprising if your link was discussed since your link is from | 2017 and the post is from 2010 and doesn't appear to have a | recent update. | bitshiftfaced wrote: | That explains it. | gnabgib wrote: | Posted so many times: | | - 3 months ago 68 comments | [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25551624] | | - Jan 2020 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21984435] | | - May 2018 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17069386] | | - Aug 2015, 25 comments | [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10145480] | | - Jul 2010, 23 comments | [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1498136] | | - Jul 2010 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1494732] | | - Often referenced in other high-repost DK posts like "Dunning- | Kruger and other memes" and "Wikipedia: Dunning-Kruger Effect" | maxerickson wrote: | The lesson I take from Dunning-Kruger is that self evaluation is | hard. | internetslave wrote: | What's the name for the effect of people always bringing up the | dunning kruger effect like it's the answer to everything? I can't | go a day without reading about it | | Seems like this and bloom filters. Constantly on HN. Both mostly | useless | burnished wrote: | What if its that thing where when you learn about something it | seems like its suddenly everywhere, except it was always there, | you're just noticing it now? | ctcherry wrote: | The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon | Trufa wrote: | Baader-Meinhof phenomenon :) | alasdair_ wrote: | I keep seeing references to the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon | all over the place lately... | reducesuffering wrote: | I'm losing track of all the references to scientist named | phenomena: Baader-Meinhof, Dunning-Kruger, Gell-Mann | Amnesia, etc. | function_seven wrote: | I like to think of these things as "in the know" retorts. | Things that the writer appear to think are novel concepts, but | we've seen them so many times that they're not. | | * Dunning-Kruger | | * That xkcd 10,000 People comic[0] (Getting meta in my own | comment!) | | * "HR is not your friend" | | * "Corporations only goal is to increase share price" | | * "You're the product" | | I'm sure I could name another dozen or so if I had the | inclination. | | [0] https://xkcd.com/1053/ | fab1an wrote: | I've always suspected that obsessive interest in the Dunning- | Kruger effect is following an inverse curve of the effect itself | :) Graph: | https://twitter.com/fabianstelzer/status/1253647480966852610 | sharker8 wrote: | Dunning-Kruger is Impostor Syndrome's evil twin. And it's | impossible to know which one you may suffer from! | throwawaytemp27 wrote: | That's not correct. Dunning-Kruger also accounts for competent | people underestimating their competence (like impostor | syndrome). | jumanjisama wrote: | Related: This is an interview with David Dunning of Dunning- | Kruger Effect. I find it highly entertaining and would recommend | listening just for a few minutes in case it tickles your interest | too. I've listed a couple of sources of the same podcast, just in | case. | | https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-dunning-on-the-d... | | https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL2ZlZWRzLmJsb29tYmV... | taylorius wrote: | Does the Dunning-Kruger effect apply to people's knowledge of the | Dunning-Kruger effect? | bena wrote: | Maybe psychology in general. | | But yeah, since it's a broadly applicable principle, it should | apply to itself. In that people who don't understand the | Dunning-Kruger principle believe they understand it better than | they do. | buescher wrote: | How would you know if you were competent to determine that? | indymike wrote: | The only safe answer: I don't feel I have the requisite | experience to discuss this topic at an expert level. | bluetwo wrote: | So there is a Dunning-Kruger effect on the Dunning-Kruger effect? | | How meta. | omgwtfbyobbq wrote: | sanj, can you add the year to the title? | notretarded wrote: | No | nicolashahn wrote: | I don't need to read this, I already know all about the Dunning- | Kruger effect. | slt2021 wrote: | people downvote you, but your post is exactly on point! ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-04-13 23:00 UTC)