[HN Gopher] Writing books is not really a good idea
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       Writing books is not really a good idea
        
       Author : ellegriffin
       Score  : 382 points
       Date   : 2021-05-10 14:01 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ellegriffin.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ellegriffin.substack.com)
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | I would have been happy if my toddler book was published and sold
       | even $5k copies.
        
       | sublimefire wrote:
       | The thing not mentioned or at least something which is quite
       | opaque here is an easier access to foreign markets (did stats
       | include those?). This sounds almost like a no brainer to me: self
       | publish and translate your books to other languages - maximize
       | the reach with additional investment. Obs I do not know the costs
       | involved in translating the books.
        
       | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
       | It would be interesting to have a timeseries plot of this sort of
       | information. Did it used to be easier to make a living as an
       | author? Presumably there was some point at which the ease of
       | making a living as an author peaked. This article suggests that
       | time is in the past, but how far in the past? Has the absolute
       | number of people who can make it as an author decreased, or just
       | the relative fraction of the human population? So many questions.
       | 
       | I do also think that the expectation/standard of a $100k/year
       | salary is a bit high. That's almost double the US median
       | household income, for a job that can be done (some would argue is
       | best done) from a house in the woods. I also know that some
       | authors are turning to Patreon. N.K. Jemisen famously started a
       | Patreon that allowed her to quit her job and begin writing full-
       | time. I personally have donated >$100 directly to favorite
       | midlist authors who have made a big impact on my reading life.
       | 
       | FWIW, I used to read more, but I still buy at least three or four
       | full-priced books a year.
        
         | Vvector wrote:
         | > I do also think that the expectation/standard of a $100k/year
         | salary is a bit high.
         | 
         | Agreed. Most writers do it because they love writing, not
         | because they expect $100k/year. The money comes after the
         | success. I wish her luck
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | I would call it more of a hope than an expectation. Really
           | what I'm trying to figure out is if it's possible to monetize
           | a niche audience (with fiction content) and make a living
           | from it. I guess we'll find out... And thanks for the luck!
        
         | bun_at_work wrote:
         | There's an interesting book [1] that talks about how media
         | changes over time. In short, new media forms replace older
         | forms, pushing the older forms into niches. An obvious example
         | is TV replacing radio, where radio used to be full of story-
         | based content, but when that content moved to TV, radio became
         | largely a niche form of media, focusing on music (and talk
         | shows and weather etc).
         | 
         | This paints a picture of media forms along some continuum,
         | which describes what you're looking for.
         | 
         | [1] Media Literacy, W. James Potter
        
         | salamandersauce wrote:
         | Yes. Needs comparison to past years to be useful. Would also be
         | helpful to compare books that came out in past year or few
         | years to see how their sales trends. We also need to know what
         | those books that are tracked are. Are they just in print
         | titles? Or does it count 60 year old used biology textbooks for
         | sale on Amazon no one wants? Or dated romance novels long past
         | their prime? Because if those are included I'm not surprised
         | they are struggling to sell 1000 copies. Even new books in
         | niche academic fields can struggle to sell 1000 copies as the
         | audience is so small.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | I did mention Alexandre Dumas as a case study in a previous
           | article. Here's a snippet:
           | 
           | "But there used to be another way. When Alexandre Dumas
           | debuted The Count of Monte Cristo it was published as a
           | feuilleton--a portion of the weekly newspaper devoted to
           | fiction. From August 1844 to January 1846 his chapters were
           | published in 18 installments for The Journal des Debats, a
           | newspaper that went out to 9,000 to 10,000 paying subscribers
           | in France--and readers were rapt by it.
           | 
           | In the forward to a 2004 translation of the book, the writer
           | Luc Sante wrote: "The effect of the serials, which held vast
           | audiences enthralled... is unlike any experience of reading
           | we are likely to have known ourselves, maybe something like
           | that of a particularly gripping television series. Day after
           | day, at breakfast or at work or on the street, people talked
           | of little else."
           | 
           | It was basically "Game of Thrones." Readers could not wait to
           | get their hands on the next chapter and that bode very well
           | for the writer who was not only paid by the newspaper in
           | real-time for his work (by the word), but also grew the
           | popularity of his work over the entirety of the time it was
           | being published.
           | 
           | "The 'Presse' pays nearly 300 francs per day for feuilletons
           | to Alexandre Dumas, George Sand, De Balzac, Frederic Soule,
           | Theophile Gautier, and Jules Sandeau," Littell's Little Age,
           | Volume 10 wrote in 1846. "But what will the result be in
           | 1848? That each of these personnages will have made from
           | 32,000 to 64,000 francs per annum for two or three years for
           | writing profitable trash of the color of the foulest mud in
           | Paris?"
           | 
           | That "profitable trash" earned those writers an annual salary
           | of between $202,107 to $404,213 in today's dollars--and the
           | obvious disdain of that Littell writer who, even then
           | preferred the merits of a bound and published book. The same
           | volume goes on to say that Dumas earned about 10,000 francs
           | ($65,743 today) per installment when he was poached from The
           | Presse by The Constitutionnel in 1845."
           | 
           | https://ellegriffin.substack.com/p/publishing-industry-truth
        
             | narrator wrote:
             | Ever read Boswell's life of Samuel Johnson? Samuel Johnson
             | was a poet, which was about as close as you could be to a
             | rock star in terms of popular culture fame in the 18th
             | century.
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | Feuilletons still exist even now at least in Germany but
             | they are more devoted to cultural commentary.
        
             | coliveira wrote:
             | But these authors were the 19th century version of Dan
             | Brown. They made far less than a modern writer of similar
             | success would make.
        
               | cafard wrote:
               | Balzac, Dumas, Gautier, and Sand? They turned out some
               | hack work, no doubt, but also a fair bit that is still
               | read.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | I'm talking in terms of success. Of course any French
               | writer of the 19th century is better than Dan Brown.
        
             | salamandersauce wrote:
             | A comparison to the recent past and not the most successful
             | French authors of the 19th century. For every Dumas making
             | $200,000-$400,000 there was probably a hundred authors
             | you've never heard of making $2000. And the market has
             | changed so much since the mid-19th century as there is way
             | more alternatives for people's time like movies, TV shows,
             | video games, etc. with completely different distribution
             | methods because of things like the internet enabling people
             | to get content out for free.
             | 
             | You need to look back at the recent past and not just the
             | most successful authors to see what the trends are. Is a
             | random sampling of 100 authors from 2000 making more than
             | those in 2019? Has the total number of books sold sharply
             | declined?
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | >Did it used to be easier to make a living as an author?
         | 
         | My assumption is almost certainly yes-- _provided_ you made it
         | through the big publisher gatekeepers. (And were able to parlay
         | that into shelf space at the store.)
         | 
         | - People probably read more books. There were fewer other
         | demands on attention, whether YouTube, social media, online
         | content generally, etc. I certainly read books far less than I
         | used to.
         | 
         | - There was less competition once you got through the
         | aforementioned gatekeepers.
         | 
         | - There was less discounting. Books used to be sold at list
         | price. And, subsequently, maybe at a small discount in some
         | places.
         | 
         | - Publishers often provided support with marketing activities.
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | For fiction publishers were small houses with semi-amateur
           | owners. They had an interest in what they were publishing,
           | and if they liked an author they'd provide opportunities and
           | invest in a career.
           | 
           | For example Penguin, which was launched in the 30s to provide
           | cheap literary paperbacks for the mass market - a kind of
           | cultural levelling up instead of dumbing down.
           | 
           | Now publishing houses are relatively small departments in
           | unimaginably huge media corporations. Penguin is now part of
           | Penguin Random House which is part of Bertelsmann, which also
           | owns BMG (Bertelsmann Music), RTL TV/Radio in Europe, and
           | Arvato, which is a general purpose corporate offering
           | logistics, finance, IT.
           | 
           | So it's not a family-owned business any more. And it is much
           | more business than family, with the usual MBA culture of
           | targets, ROI, and the rest.
        
           | chipotle_coyote wrote:
           | You're right, from everything I've read, but there are two
           | other interesting data points:
           | 
           | (1) The idea of the "midlist novel" or "paperback original"
           | basically disappeared for a couple decades -- these are the
           | old mass market paperbacks that you used to see all the time,
           | about 4.25" by 7", that you almost _never_ see anymore. (So,
           | there was a _kind_ of discounting: softcover books were a lot
           | cheaper, even when adjusted for inflation.) There were
           | authors who made a good living pumping out these midlist
           | books at the rate of one or even two a year. The self-
           | publishing boom has brought this back to a degree as ebook
           | originals, although I 've talked to more than a few ebook-
           | first indie authors who insist they need to get out _four or
           | more_ books a year to make a living, so it 's arguably harder
           | for most. And of course that "most" is "most of those who
           | manage to make a living that way," which is, well, not
           | actually most!
           | 
           | (2) Short story rates used to be much, _much_ higher than
           | they are now when adjusted for inflation, to the point where
           | there were people who made a successful living selling
           | primarily -- or even exclusively! -- short fiction. I 've
           | never been able to get a good read, pun intended, on what
           | happened here, other than a nebulous sense that readers'
           | tastes just changed over the years (the "fewer other demands
           | on attention" you mention was likely a big part of that), and
           | those markets became less viable.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | In SF, at least, the magazine ecosystem associated with
             | short stories has taken a pretty big hit which means new
             | authors tend to not get into the genre that way. Of course,
             | that's a bit self-referential because "Why did that
             | ecosystem largely go away?" and the answer is that I'm not
             | sure. Though I'll note that a fair bit is online these days
             | so maybe new authors felt that was a better way to build
             | their name.
             | 
             | I'd also note that some of the better SF short story
             | writers these days tend to write in a mix of genres and
             | often publish in places like The New Yorker.
        
             | sdenton4 wrote:
             | Short fiction was being bought by magazines with large
             | reader bases. Magazines have essentially died as a medium
             | over the last twenty years, and fiction magazines were on
             | their way out well before then.
             | 
             | If you've got a larger reader base and lots of competition,
             | you can pay a lot for content. If you don't, you can't. The
             | various TV subscription services are playing the same game
             | that the sci-fi magazines used to; they pay a huge amount
             | to produce content for recurring revenue, in fairly tight
             | competition with the other streaming services to have the
             | best stuff. (Think the expanse vs the mandalorian vs
             | unbounded quantities of star trek.) The primary medium for
             | consuming sci-fi changed as it went more mainstream, but
             | also magazines died generally.
        
           | TchoBeer wrote:
           | >People probably read more books. There were fewer other
           | demands on attention, whether YouTube, social media, online
           | content generally, etc. I certainly read books far less than
           | I used to.
           | 
           | I'd imagine the number of books sold per year is strictly
           | increasing.
        
             | jbay808 wrote:
             | If it's increasing because of a growing number of readers,
             | then that's a winner take all scenario where Harry Potter
             | sells more and more copies as each new reader hasn't read
             | it yet.
             | 
             | If it's growing because of one extremely voracious reader
             | buying up every book they can get their hands on, that's a
             | scenario that favours more obscure authors.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Closer to the later for most authors. Though every few
               | dozen years there is another Harry Potter that everyone
               | in the world buys and reads. For most you need to target
               | those voracious readers and what they are willing to pay
               | for - but be ever on the lookout as to how you can jump
               | to the Harry Potter world where everyone buys your books.
               | 
               | Harry Potter was good (in the first few anyway), but if
               | you like that type of thing there are ton of much better
               | books that never made it.
        
               | Rerarom wrote:
               | Please name one.
        
               | jholman wrote:
               | If you particularly wanted books that "didn't make it", I
               | don't know anything about that. But maybe you just wanted
               | books that are like HP but better than HP.
               | 
               | I read the first few HP, and thought they were dreadful,
               | and thus never read the later ones, so maybe I'm not the
               | person you want advice from, but here are some
               | recommendations of novels/novelists in the same genre
               | (fantasy novels, written for children, that hold up for
               | adults):
               | 
               | Nearly anything by Dianna Wynne Jones, but I particularly
               | enjoyed The Lives of Christopher Chant, Archer's Goon,
               | and of course Howl's Moving Castle.
               | 
               | Susan Cooper's famous Dark is Rising series. Half the
               | series is more normal-kid (starting with Greenwitch),
               | half is more special-magic-kid (starting with The Dark is
               | Rising).
               | 
               | Garth Nix's Old Kingdom, starting with Sabriel.
               | 
               | While China Mieville is very much not a children's author
               | (really! don't buy a random mieville book for your young
               | niece/nephew, really don't!), Un-Lun-Dun is an amazing
               | book in this genre.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | This suggests otherwise. (Although this is obviously not a
             | complete set of data. I'd actually probably have expected a
             | bigger falloff but maybe ease of acquisition leads to more
             | people buying books they don't end up reading.)
             | 
             | https://ideas.bkconnection.com/10-awful-truths-about-
             | publish...
        
               | bryanrasmussen wrote:
               | I suppose the assumption is predicated on a rising
               | population.
               | 
               | Also you'd think last year might have led to more people
               | reading books.
        
         | kevinmchugh wrote:
         | Vonnegut I remember writing somewhere that radio and especially
         | TV had killed the market for short stories in magazines, which
         | were a great way for authors to get started.
         | 
         | Here's some other things he said on making a living as a
         | writer: https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/vonnegut-
         | writing-i...
         | 
         | Note that he got paid $750 for his first short story in 1949! I
         | don't know how many places are paying first time authors that
         | much today, and then you remember to calculate inflation.
        
           | iib wrote:
           | I assume even in radio and TV, not all segments are created
           | equal. Maybe live, ad-libbed shows had a more detrimental
           | effect, in the sense that at least scripted shows employ more
           | writers?
           | 
           | Also, would it not make sense to look at writing even from a
           | more indirect point? For example, millions of people enjoyed
           | the creativity of the /Friends/ writers, without actually
           | reading a single word. Should they be counted as successful
           | as a book writer with millions of readers?
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | In the US, for scifi, the SFWA requires a market to offer 8
           | cents a word or more, I believe, to be considered a
           | "professional market" for the sake of counting towards
           | membership criteria. That means most of the bigger scifi
           | magazines are exactly at 8c (a very few above)
           | 
           | Very few genre magazines will accept more than 10k words. A
           | handful will accept 20k-25k (Asimov's, Analog, Clarkesworld
           | for example, last I checked). Many will prefer much shorter
           | works.
           | 
           | And of course that is before taking into account the
           | competition - the editor of a relatively minor scifi magazine
           | mention on Twitter that their typical slush pile per issue
           | was 1400-1500 stories.
           | 
           | I've submitted a couple of stories, but decided that effort
           | vs. relatively low potential payoff was so low that since I
           | wouldn't really be profitable when factoring in time spent
           | anyway it was better to just put my stories on my website
           | _and pay_ to promote them to relevant twitter followers to
           | pull in readers for my novel and increase my following at the
           | same time.
           | 
           | The few short stories I've published so far has as a result
           | reached a much wider audience than most of the main scifi
           | magazines reach. E.g. even Analog was reportedly down to 27k
           | readers by 2011.
           | 
           | But of course being able to afford to do that is a pretty
           | privileged position to be in.
        
             | floren wrote:
             | > the editor of a relatively minor scifi magazine mention
             | on Twitter that their typical slush pile per issue was
             | 1400-1500 stories.
             | 
             | That's surprising; I subscribed to Asimov's for about 6
             | months back in 2015 and based on what I was reading, I
             | assumed they must be publishing everything that comes in
             | the door.
        
           | padobson wrote:
           | 750 dollars in 1949 is about $9,000 in 2021.
           | 
           | Vonnegut had to convince at least two gatekeepers: his own
           | agent and the editor at Colliers.
           | 
           | I spent a large chunk of time a few years back looking into
           | the questions OP is asking, and the ultimate truth I came to
           | is this: whether you're self publishing or going the
           | traditional route, you're going to need some established
           | gatekeepers to support you if you're going to make it.
           | 
           | In 1949, those gatekeepers were traditional publishers. In
           | 2021, we still have traditional publishers, but we also have
           | content curation algorithms, social media influencers,
           | podcast hosts, and platforms like Substack and Patreon. If
           | you can get any of them to put resources into promoting you,
           | you'll have a real opportunity of making it - that is, if
           | what you're offering is any good.
           | 
           | If you can't or don't want to get the attention of those
           | gatekeepers, it doesn't matter how good your content is, no
           | one will ever find you.
        
             | pie420 wrote:
             | Yep, in almost every industry it was always been 50% how
             | good you are and 50% who you know. Over time, who you need
             | to know to be successful has changed, and new artists need
             | to adapt, as they always have. Getting an audience is
             | easier than ever in history. That is amazing for hobbyists
             | who just want some readers and recognition, and not great
             | for those who want to earn a living while writing.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | And, as in many other creative endeavors, all the
               | hobbyists who just want some readers (or viewers or
               | whatever) end up competing with people trying to put food
               | on the table. Even if individually many do not have much
               | of an effect, in the aggregate they do.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | You can hustle up who you know. Late night talk shows are
               | looking for anyone who is willing to be interviewed at
               | 2am. And once in a while some big name will happen to
               | have insomnia and notice you. However you have to do 2am
               | shows with no idea if anyone will notice for a long time.
               | While of course writing the next edition.
        
           | hardtke wrote:
           | I saw Kurt Vonnegut speak in the 1990's and I remember his
           | saying something along the lines of "I am one of the 100
           | people that are able to make a decent living writing fiction"
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | munificent wrote:
         | _> Did it used to be easier to make a living as an author?_
         | 
         | One of the dominant subjective experiences of living today is
         | the sensation that any possible amazing kind of life is _right
         | there_ and it is only up to us to reach out to pluck it. You go
         | on Instagram and see people living blissful lives of travel in
         | gorgeous locales while talking about how affordable it is. That
         | random dude who wrote a series of posts on some story-telling
         | Reddit ends up getting it optioned by Hollywood and is now a
         | major screenwriter. The sea shanty Tik-Tok 'er is a major label
         | recording artist.
         | 
         | Our culture's positive values of egalitarianism and opportunity
         | say that whatever you want your life to be can be, if only you
         | work hard enough to get it.
         | 
         | The dark side of this is that many of us won't. And, in
         | particular, in many areas, the total number of brass rings is
         | relatively fixed and we can't all get them. A hundred years
         | ago, most people didn't even _think_ of becoming an author. It
         | was a rarefied activity done by people who went to college and
         | moved to New York City. For more, authors felt like an Other.
         | It 's not that their personal dreams of authorship were crushed
         | by the lack of opportunity, it's like they never thought to
         | dream it in the first place, any more than people dream of
         | being howler monkeys or velour sofas.
         | 
         | But today, media is more than happy to show us all possible
         | dreams. Our social media aggregators filter out all of the
         | lives you're _likely_ to lead and show you only the best ones.
         | 
         | So I think today many many more people _consider_ and _try_ to
         | become authors than ever before. But the total amount of time
         | spent reading isn 't growing enough to accommodate that. While
         | some will find success (for however they choose to define
         | that), the end result is probably a much greater number of
         | dreams thwarted than attained.
         | 
         | I love this TED talk by Alain de Botton on success:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY
         | 
         | He says:
         | 
         | "It is probably as unlikely nowadays that you would become as
         | rich and famous as Bill Gates as it was unlikely in the 17th
         | century that you would exceed to the ranks of the French
         | aristocracy. But the point is it doesn't _feel_ that way. It 's
         | made to feel by the media and other outlets that if you've got
         | energy, a few bright ideas about technology, a garage, you too
         | could start a major thing."
        
           | cortesoft wrote:
           | This makes a lot of sense.
           | 
           | In the past, the big hurdle to becoming an author (or a
           | musician, or a model, etc) was getting past the gatekeepers.
           | You had to convince a publisher, or a label, or a modeling
           | company that you were worthy and then you were in.
           | 
           | This seemed like an impossible task to most people, and many
           | people gave up without even trying. But for those who did
           | persist and attempt to get past the gatekeepers, there was a
           | very clear goal, and the gatekeepers were very clear to you
           | when you didn't make it.
           | 
           | The traditional gatekeepers to a lot of professions are being
           | bypassed these days, so at first it seems like it should be
           | easier now. You don't have to have any connections or
           | convince a single person your stuff is worthy.
           | 
           | However, in reality that game is even harder now. The demand
           | for the content hasn't changed much, and it is still just as
           | rare to succeed in these fields as before. However, people
           | never get the clear 'pass/fail' response from a gatekeeper,
           | so people who will never make it are likely to pursue the
           | career longer than they might have with a more clear
           | rejection.
        
           | coldtea wrote:
           | > _The dark side of this is that many of us won 't. And, in
           | particular, in many areas, the total number of brass rings is
           | relatively fixed and we can't all get them. A hundred years
           | ago, most people didn't even think of becoming an author._
           | 
           | It's worse: a hundred years ago (say 1921) there were less
           | people (in the US for example), and more succesful authors.
           | 
           | Now it's more people (350 million vs 100 million in 2021) AND
           | less absolute people reading books (perhaps as today they
           | also compete with tv, the web, youtube, netflix, social
           | media, videogames, and so on as everyday entertainment
           | options).
           | 
           | So it's much much harder to make a living as an author today
           | than in 1921.
        
             | cortesoft wrote:
             | > So it's much much harder to make a living as an author
             | today than in 1921.
             | 
             | And much easier to make it as a television screen writer.
             | 
             | The mediums have shifted
        
           | cardiffspaceman wrote:
           | One of the scenes I enjoyed in "Patton" was when Patton
           | defeats Rommel through knowledge of Rommel's tactics. He
           | yells, seemingly across the field to Rommel, "I read your
           | book". (The movie actually makes it seem like Patton could
           | read unpublished manuscripts of his opponent [1]) This
           | exemplifies that famous people wrote books. They wrote
           | memoirs and they wrote manuals. I couldn't say how the
           | gatekeepers dealt with such books, nor how the potential
           | readership found or regarded such books.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infantry_Attacks
        
           | gurkendoktor wrote:
           | Great comment!
           | 
           | > A hundred years ago, most people didn't even think of
           | becoming an author.
           | 
           | The following is a bit tangential, but I keep thinking about
           | it:
           | 
           | I was watching this video on the Barnum effect recently,
           | which basically says that people are likely to believe in the
           | accuracy of vague descriptions of their personality (think
           | horoscopes; "Libras need security").
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si2HoscBLIw&t=4m23s
           | 
           | The super-vague personality assessment, which was tailored to
           | describe as many people as possible, included the wish for
           | writing a novel (at 4m23s). That's how common this desire
           | is/was? I wonder if the modern version of it would say "you
           | have considered opening up on YouTube".
        
             | munificent wrote:
             | It's a little different. I think there has long been a
             | thing were many people dreamed of spending a fraction of
             | their retirement writing their memoirs, or something along
             | those lines. It was a dream in roughly the same category as
             | owning a sailboat or moving to the islands. Kind of a "one
             | of these days" leisure aspiration.
             | 
             | Today--because we are all so intensely culturally obsessed
             | with financial success--"being a writer" means writing
             | stuff _right now_ and doing it well enough to make a living
             | off of. Where before, many dreamed of writing as a thing to
             | do _after_ they 've earned most of their wealth, now it is
             | a _means to it_.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | I love this. Thank you for sharing!
        
           | scubbo wrote:
           | > the total number of brass rings
           | 
           | TIL of the associated phrase, thank you!
        
           | ZephyrBlu wrote:
           | > _But today, media is more than happy to show us all
           | possible dreams. Our social media aggregators filter out all
           | of the lives you 're likely to lead and show you only the
           | best ones_
           | 
           | Ironically it's those same social media aggregators that make
           | the stars these days.
           | 
           | You can literally be an overnight success if you get lucky.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | _> Did it used to be easier to make a living as an author?_
         | 
         | I suspect there is now a middle ground that didn't exist
         | before: In the 1970s you were either selling >10,000 copies, or
         | you weren't a published author. 'Self-publishing' had a
         | reputation as a scam to extract money from naive would-be
         | authors. (I'm not sure what the academic book market was like
         | at the time)
         | 
         | It's only with the rise of ebooks and print-on-demand that
         | niche, low-selling authors have become a thing.
        
           | allturtles wrote:
           | I don't think this is true. Niche and vanity presses have
           | existed for a long time
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanity_press#History)
           | 
           | Academic presses are also mostly very low volume. But
           | academics don't expect to make a living from selling books
           | (at least not directly - books help to establish reputations
           | which can help you in the academic job market).
        
             | spoonjim wrote:
             | "Vanity Press" means you spend money to get published.
             | Modern self-publishing means that you're attempting to make
             | an income, however meager, from your writing.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | Vanity presses have indeed existed for a long time, but 50
             | years ago they were widely seen as a scam, rather than a
             | realistic route to a writing career.
             | 
             | Vanity publishers would tell every author their work had
             | great sales potential, then charge them $2000 for $500
             | worth of editing, printing and marketing - so authors would
             | not only fail to make money, they would actually make a
             | large loss.
        
               | allturtles wrote:
               | I don't think that's a huge difference. It will still
               | cost you money to get your Word doc into publishable
               | shape (cover and interior design, editing, etc.) And
               | you're still unlikely to make a significant profit on
               | that upfront cost as a self-published author of PoD or
               | eBooks.
               | 
               | As to whether either form of self-publishing 'scam' or
               | not, that depends on the expectations of the author. I
               | think it's always been common to publish just to be
               | published with no expectation of making money, hence the
               | 'vanity'. But I have no data to back that up.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | The difference is with print on demand you can actually
               | control your losses. When print was a printing press, the
               | effort to setup the press meant that nobody sane would
               | print just one book, it cost a few thousand to setup to
               | print, and then each book was a few pennies. Inflation
               | has raised the latter cost, while print on demand as
               | lowered the previous to near zero.
               | 
               | Today you can decide how much your editor is worth. If
               | your grammar and spelling is good you can pay less, or if
               | you know it is bad (like me) you can pay extra until the
               | quality is where you want it. You might even have a
               | friend who will do the early editing for free (a trained
               | editor shouldn't be wasted on spell check duties, but
               | they are probably worth it once you think the book is
               | done for final tweaks) Whatever this investment is, you
               | can limit the costs.
        
               | jhbadger wrote:
               | And they would generally sell the authors hundreds of
               | copies of their printed book (because it wasn't
               | economically feasible to do print-on-demand like today),
               | which the author was expected to find buyers for. Most
               | didn't, and many people clearing out the houses of dead
               | relatives found dusty boxes of unsold books which cost
               | the relative a lot of money.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | I talked elsewhere about Louis Masterson - the Morgan Kane
           | series sold 20m+ copies in his lifetime, but _each individual
           | edition_ of each book sold mostly on the order of thousands
           | over multiple printings over a period of decades.
           | 
           | Low selling authors have been a big thing since always,
           | because there are a huge number of markets that are small
           | enough that it was (and is) not unusual for publishers in
           | smaller markets to print on the order of a few hundred books
           | per run for unknown authors.
           | 
           | E.g. in Norway (where Kjell Hallbing/Louis Masterson is
           | from), 10k sold used to mean you were a big deal, and high up
           | on the bestseller lists.
        
         | majormajor wrote:
         | 100k isn't what it used to be.
         | 
         | I often suspect we haven't noticed the inflationary effects on
         | this as a "high" salary as much as we otherwise would because
         | of the psychological effect of the change from five to six
         | figures. Yeah, the median salary is low, but that's been well-
         | covered elsewhere about how it hasn't risen in line with costs
         | or upper-percentile income - so think of this as just another
         | example of "here's a field where you can't make a comfortable
         | income anymore."
        
         | KittenInABox wrote:
         | I know offhandedly that at one point it was possible to live on
         | one's short fiction but now that's been entirely squeezed out.
         | (Unless you're Ted Chiang.)
        
           | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
           | That is sad. :( In happier news, I wonder if you can look at
           | things in terms of "creators of entertainment" rather than
           | just authors and get a happier picture.
           | 
           | Like, for example, let's just consider authors and video game
           | creators. Let's suppose that in the fifties, before video
           | games, there were, say, 100,000 full-time fiction authors in
           | the US. (That number _sounds_ awfully high to me, but maybe.)
           | Today, according to this article, there can only be at most
           | about 7,000 full time fiction authors in the US. But
           | according to this page[1], there are 260,000 people working
           | in the videogaming industry. So if we only consider these two
           | industries, that 's 160,000 _more_ people getting paid full
           | time wages to create entertainment.
           | 
           | That's sad if you want to be an author, but if you're
           | concerned about the overall creation mix of society, then
           | maybe it's not so sad.
           | 
           | [1]: https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-
           | statistics/employment/vid...
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | People "working in the videogaming industry" aren't
             | comparable to "fiction authors" but to "people working in
             | the slice of the publishing industry involved in publishing
             | fiction".
             | 
             | And the slice of the videogaming industry that _is_
             | analogous to authors is probably a vastly smaller
             | proportion than of print fiction publishing because there
             | is so much more non-authorial stuff to do.
        
               | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
               | That's a good point! From what I can find about 750k
               | people are working in the publishing industry overall.
               | It's hard to find statistics just for fiction publishing.
               | 
               | I have to admit I'm a little surprised. I would have
               | thought by now the videogame industry would be bigger
               | than books, but maybe it's not.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Don't forget the population difference. There are a lot
             | more people now than back then. (I intentional didn't
             | specify world population of some subset - interesting to
             | think about each)
        
             | KittenInABox wrote:
             | Writing novels isn't comparable to writing video games
             | outside of very niche genres, which are probably in a
             | similarly sad state to fiction overall.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | Semiapies wrote:
         | From TFA: "There are thousands of paid fiction authors on
         | Patreon but only 25 earn more than $1,000/month".
         | $1000 * 12 < $100,000
         | 
         | But I get that HN isn't a place for usefully discussing this
         | sort of issue, because it's packed with the people who are
         | absolutely certain they'll be one of those 25.
        
         | blululu wrote:
         | 100k is not that unreasonable of an expectation as the
         | necessary base for a freelancer. Keep in mind that you will
         | need to cover additional taxes that your employer would
         | normally cover, and you will need to plan on variability so you
         | need more cushion than a salaried employee. Add in the fact
         | that an author would need to be in the top 10% of a competitive
         | field and you need to start considering the opportunity cost of
         | not getting an office job.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | And no benefits, including insurance. That $100K for a fairly
           | to very successful author starts to look a lot like a pretty
           | middling $60K or so income in an office job.
        
             | jimbob45 wrote:
             | You two make excellent points. Although the author seems
             | greedy for wanting a 100k salary, that 100k is going to
             | _feel_ closer to 50k for reasons outside of their control.
        
               | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
               | To be clear, I never said that it was _greedy_ to want a
               | $100k salary. It 's a perfectly rational and ordinary
               | thing to want. I wondered about how reasonable to was to
               | expect to attain that level of financial success in
               | writing.
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | Well reasonable is a whole other thing. And I'm
               | definitely not being reasonable! :)
        
               | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
               | "Never tell me the odds?" :) I wish you the very best of
               | luck.
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | I don't think I'm greedy for trying to see if a 100k
               | salary would be possible. I've made that as a writer and
               | editor throughout my career, why not hope for it as a
               | novelist? (or at least try for it!). It might not turn
               | out that way in the end, but better to reach high than
               | low!
        
               | akiselev wrote:
               | I disagree with the GP's characterization that it's
               | greedy and you should definitely try for it, but I'm
               | going to rephrase your statement thus:
               | 
               |  _> I 've made that as a pitching coach and umpire
               | throughout my career, why not hope for it as a pitcher?_
               | 
               | Writer/editor are fundamentally different roles than
               | novelist. In the former, the people with the up front
               | capital already know what they want, at least in a more
               | concrete sense than "something that makes us more money
               | than we put in." The focus is on selling whatever makes
               | them money, whether it's a product or a trade publication
               | or ad space. They don't really need the best, they just
               | want to avoid the worst so that the writing/editing
               | doesn't bring down the rest of the product, magazine,
               | marketing, etc. That's where most of that $100k comes
               | from: the value writing/editing brings to the rest of the
               | operation that is actually generating the cash.
               | 
               | As a novelist, you _are_ the product. Your story  &
               | marketability, the quality of your prose, how closely you
               | follow the cultural zeitgeist, and so on become the
               | dominant factors. Instead of derisking the money making
               | part of the operation, you the risky money making
               | operation. Such roles are almost universally on a bimodal
               | income distribution. Major league pitchers get paid
               | anywhere from a few hundred thousand to tens of millions
               | but the next run down is the AAA leagues, which pay at
               | most $50k a year. There are far more people making
               | $100k/year supporting the pitchers than there are
               | pitchers making $100k.
               | 
               | Think of it from an economics perspective (rough math
               | here): according to [1] "only 690 million print books
               | were sold in 2019 in the U.S. in all publishing
               | categories combined, both fiction and nonfiction." Lets
               | assume physical to e-book sales are 1:1 (they're not) so
               | a total of 1.4 billion books sold. Let's assume the
               | average price per book is $20 (a tad high). There were
               | 17.1 million new cars sold that year, lets assume at an
               | average of $30k each (a tad low). That's a total market
               | of $28 billion vs $513 billion dollars. Assuming 30% cost
               | of goods sold for the former and 70% COGS for the latter
               | that's $21 billion left over for the novelists or $153
               | billion gross profit from selling the cars.
               | 
               | Now there's certainly lots of room for you to make
               | $100k/year as a novelist in that $28 billion but that is
               | for _all novelists_ in the US and - I suspect - academic
               | textbook authors are probably making a disproportionate
               | chunk of that money while inflating the average price per
               | book. My assumption is very little of that $153 billion
               | goes to writers but that number includes over 16,000
               | dealerships, all of whom need their copy for sales and
               | marketing. The average dealership in the US sells
               | 500-1000 cars a year with upwards of $10-20 million per
               | year revenue so $100k /year for a writer would be a drop
               | in the bucket for them, especially with freelancers.
               | Multiply that by all the other industries and the numbers
               | grow to overwhelming amounts: if 0.01% of $21+ trillion
               | in general industry spending (going by GDP) goes to
               | writers in a gaussian distribution, there's going to be a
               | lot more $100k/year authors in that group than among
               | novelists.
               | 
               | [1] https://ideas.bkconnection.com/10-awful-truths-about-
               | publish...
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | This is certainly valid, but it also assumes the current
               | publishing model (as in, how could I, one writer, make
               | $100,000 of the $28 billion pie). Which also assumes that
               | I would need to reach mass appeal (re: sell lots of
               | copies) as an author to be successful in that paradigm.
               | 
               | What I am asking is, is it possible for me, who already
               | has a niche audience for my writing, to have those
               | followers support me as a writer? Can I add enough value
               | to that small audience, that they want to pay to
               | subscribe to my work? Would 1,000 people pay $100/year?
               | Or 2,000 people pay $50/year?
               | 
               | This is different from selling books. It's selling a
               | platform.
               | 
               | It STILL might not work. And I STILL might never reach
               | that income. But it's an entirely new way to think about
               | books and publishing and I'm curious to see if there's
               | still a path for fiction writers in there somewhere....
        
               | akiselev wrote:
               | _> What I am asking is, is it possible for me, who
               | already has a niche audience for my writing, to have
               | those followers support me as a writer? Can I add enough
               | value to that small audience, that they want to pay to
               | subscribe to my work? Would 1,000 people pay $100 /year?
               | Or 2,000 people pay $50/year?_
               | 
               | That's a completely different concept that a novelist so
               | data from the classic publishing industry are likely
               | useless. You'll have to find out for yourself
               | -\\_(tsu)_/-
               | 
               | I know of some niches that certainly are supporting
               | multiple independent authors at that amount per year or
               | more, but they're all unique markets in their own right
               | and I'd hesitate to extrapolate one from the other. In
               | truth, I'd call most of those people analysts who write
               | well and the few who work in fiction have semi-
               | formulaic/restricted niches like writing material for GMs
               | of hardcore D&D groups. Hardly work that allows one to
               | flourish artistically.
               | 
               | tldr: Short answer: no. Long answer: ...is left as an
               | exercise for the reader.
        
               | Mehdi2277 wrote:
               | This is commonish in translation community. There are
               | sites like wuxia world and woopread that have a lot of
               | translations of east asian web novels that you can pay to
               | see chapters earlier. Some do it as pay per chapter
               | others as a subscription model for early access. I do
               | also see a few self published fantasies/romances that do
               | this on tapas but would guess few do well enough. Normal
               | model here is short chapters of about 5ish pages sold for
               | l0-20ish cents per chapter. This leads to many series
               | having massive chapter counts. 1000 chapter stories are
               | pretty common here and longest popularish one I know is
               | like close to 4k chapters.
        
               | ska wrote:
               | > I don't think I'm greedy for trying to see if a 100k
               | salary
               | 
               | I don't think it's greedy either, but it's also obviously
               | past the point of "can I make a living doing this". After
               | all, median individual income is less than half of that.
               | 
               | "a living" and "the kind of living _I_ want " are
               | different things, obviously.
        
         | cafard wrote:
         | Recently in Boswell's _Journal of a Tour to the Hebrides_ , I
         | noticed the passage
         | 
         | He asked me whether he had mentioned, in any of the papers of
         | the Rambler, the description in Virgil of the entrance into
         | Hell, with an application to the press; 'for,' said he, 'I do
         | not much remember them'. I told him, 'No.' Upon which he
         | repeated it:                 Vestibulum ante ipsum, primisque
         | in faucibus orci,       Luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia
         | Curae;       Pallentesque habitant Morbi, tristisque Senectus,
         | Et Metus, et malesuada Fames, et turpis Egestas,
         | Terribiles visu formae; Lethumque, Laborque.       [Footnote:
         | Just in the gate, and in the jaws of hell,       Revengeful
         | cares, and sullen sorrows dwell;       And pale diseases, and
         | repining age;       Want, fear, and famine's unresisted rage;
         | Here toils and death, and death's half-brother, sleep,
         | Forms terrible to view, their sentry keep. DRYDEN.]
         | 
         | 'Now,' said he, 'almost all these apply exactly to an authour;
         | all these are the concomitants of a printing-house.' I proposed
         | to him to dictate an essay on it, and offered to write it. He
         | said, he would not do it then, but perhaps would write one at
         | some future period.
         | 
         | (entry of Thursday, 14th October)
        
           | defen wrote:
           | Did he ever write it, or is this the Fermat's Last Theorem of
           | authorial metacommentary?
        
             | cafard wrote:
             | The latter, I suspect. I don't remember any note to it in
             | R.W. Chapman's edition.
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | I used to work in the industry. At least when it comes to
         | fiction, it has _always_ been hard to make a living as an
         | author. A very large number of first-time authors never earn
         | out their advance and therefore aren 't able to get another
         | book published. A reasonable portion of a publisher's authors
         | are "mid-list", which consistently turn out books that earn out
         | the advance plus a decent amount on top, and each new book also
         | gives a slight boost to that author's back catalog. Long-term,
         | this is how the average author earns a decent living: Output is
         | maybe 3 books every two years. Early on, the advance might only
         | be $15k to $30k per book, though once they earn out the advance
         | they begin getting royalties. Once they have 6-8 books
         | published, they have an audience and enough of a back catalog
         | that they may earn up to $50k/book with royalties from the back
         | catalog adding on a healthy bit on top. However "mid-list"
         | encompasses a wide range, so this can also be lower or higher,
         | especially because a mid-list author with 20+ books, turning
         | out 3 books every two years, may still only get $40k advances
         | based on new book sales, but with so many books in their back
         | catalog even selling only 1000 copies of each book each year
         | can add another $30k on their annual earnings. More if they're
         | popular enough to get audiobook deals as well.
         | 
         | These are the authors that basically keep the lights on for the
         | publisher. Overall though, profitable publishing is a business
         | of breakout hits, the authors that sell 50,000+ copies and hit
         | the best seller lists. Failed first-time authors and mid-list
         | authors may mostly cancel each other out on profit, and it's
         | those few hits that push publishers into the black.
        
         | andi999 wrote:
         | If you have a scalable product there is usually no middle
         | ground. Either you are getting rich or just getting by, or even
         | not getting by (last one the most likely one)
        
           | Siira wrote:
           | Isn't software a big exception to this?
        
             | andi999 wrote:
             | Is it? Can you elaborate? I think if you have a SaaS with
             | happy 100 customers paying 10$ each per month it is easier
             | to scale up to 10k customers than if you only have 2
             | customers to get to 200.
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | No. Software follow the same pattern.
        
       | DVassallo wrote:
       | As an example of that middle ground mentioned in the article, I
       | spent 2 weeks writing a short technical book about AWS, self-
       | published it, and sold 6,587 copies and $133,030 in sales in 1.5
       | years.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | This is great!
        
         | spookybones wrote:
         | I've seen a few success cases like this with technical works
         | written over a short period of time. I think it's an
         | achievement distinct from fiction publishing because you're
         | tapping into a lucrative market and answering a need. Congrats
         | nonetheless on the success. How much do you charge for a copy,
         | and how much marketing do you do?
        
           | DVassallo wrote:
           | The price is $25, but I've experimented between $15 and $38.
           | 
           | I spent about $8K on ads (Reddit) but most of my marketing
           | was organic from my Twitter account initially, and later it
           | was mostly word of mouth.
        
       | ableal wrote:
       | If memory serves, Gore Vidal said something like "a famous writer
       | will be like a famous ceramicist".
       | 
       | Ah, here we go: https://www.npr.org/2012/08/01/157696354/gore-
       | vidal-american...
        
       | makstaks wrote:
       | One challenge I had with the opening statistics in the post is
       | that it treats all books being equal in writing quality and
       | market demand. Just because I write a book, doesn't entitle it to
       | be bought.
        
       | kaesar14 wrote:
       | Is there somewhere to find the names of the 268 books?
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Bookstat didn't share the list of 268 books with me, but they
         | did share the one book that sold more than a million copies in
         | 2020: it was a Kindle-exclusive Thomas & Mercer title called
         | "If You Tell" by Gregg Olsen...
        
           | kaesar14 wrote:
           | Wouldn't have guessed! Thanks, and really interesting article
           | :)
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Thank you!
        
       | ricardobeat wrote:
       | There are plenty of people selling their own e-books online and
       | taking closer to 100% (minus processing fees) of revenue.
       | Agreeing to 15% only makes sense if you have a huge distribution
       | deal.
       | 
       | No mention of Patreon either.
        
       | PaulRobinson wrote:
       | Worth noting that serial fiction is far from a new creation or
       | invention.
       | 
       | Charles Dickens wrote most of his work as a weekly or monthly
       | serial, and that's why his stories rip along with regular
       | cliffhangers. His single volume works were mostly less popular
       | and less well known today with the exception of A Christmas
       | Carol.
       | 
       | He wasn't alone either - his success with The Pickwick Papers led
       | many others to follow, including Sir Arthur Conan Doyle with
       | Sherlock Holmes stories originally serialised in The Strand
       | magazine.
       | 
       | This model of quality fiction being in magazines never really
       | entirely went away in terms of a mark of quality - even though
       | they now print short stories rather than serialisation, it's
       | likely much harder to get your fiction into the New Yorker than
       | it is to get a publishing contract - so it's interesting to me
       | that it's making a return.
       | 
       | As somebody who has wanted to write fiction for some time, but
       | could not conceive of sitting down and writing a book in the
       | traditional way, this appeals to me.
       | 
       | As a keen reader, I'm excited to see what comes out of it, too.
        
       | bryanrasmussen wrote:
       | I've decided this article is so unclear in its terms that it is
       | unusable - for example:
       | 
       | "According to Bookstat, which looks at the book publishing market
       | as a whole, there were 2.6 million books sold online in 2020 and
       | only 268 of them sold more than 100,000 copies--that's only
       | 0.0001 percent of books. By far, the more likely thing is to sell
       | between 0 and 1,000 copies--and there were 2.6 million of those
       | last year (96 percent)."
       | 
       | what is up with that 2.6 million, it isn't explainable by just
       | being 'the number of titles!'
        
       | chasingthewind wrote:
       | I really enjoyed this @ellegriffin and it's something I wrestled
       | with about twelve years ago when I wrote my first novel. I had
       | gotten some positive feedback from a few friends and started to
       | wonder if it was "good enough to publish."
       | 
       | Luckily I moved very quickly from that question to "my" answer
       | which was "no" and mirrors your thought:
       | 
       | > If I can spend two to three years writing a novel and my best
       | case scenario is having it sell a couple hundred copies on
       | Amazon, perhaps it's time to face the music and realize that
       | writing books--like knitting or playing the harp--is nothing more
       | than a hobby. Something I can do for fun on the weekends but
       | should never hope to earn a living from.
       | 
       | It seemed very obvious to me that I was neither a good enough
       | writer nor a dedicated enough self-promoter to ever make it work.
       | Twelve years and 16 novels later I am happily churning out 1-3
       | bad novels every year and loving every minute of it.
       | 
       | All the best as you continue to chase the dream!
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | This is the best thing I ever heard of. I want nothing more
         | than permission to write badly and still love it.
        
       | subpixel wrote:
       | A friend of mine is a genre fiction writer and he makes good
       | money the hard way: by getting his books optioned for film & tv.
       | 
       | He has no kids, is married to someone whose family has a lot of
       | money, and spent twenty years achieving very little while writing
       | a lot.
       | 
       | But he worked like a dog on his fiction and currently has
       | multiple books in various levels of 'development' and a film set
       | to be shot this year with a known leading actress (not known to
       | me, but certainly to fans of the genre).
       | 
       | Ultimately I think some success can only be achieved by grinding,
       | and not everyone is in a position to do that mentally or
       | financially.
        
       | smithza wrote:
       | There is always Asimov's approach. Just publish more books.
       | Over a space of 40 years, I published an average of 1,000 words a
       | day. Over the space of the second 20 years, I published an
       | average of 1,700 words a day.         - Isaac Asimov
        
       | lacker wrote:
       | I feel like the article glosses over a key point:
       | 
       |  _Even on the high end, there were only 11 books that sold more
       | than 500,000 copies._
       | 
       |  _If I can spend two to three years writing a novel and my best
       | case scenario is having it sell a couple hundred copies_
       | 
       | Isn't the best case scenario here that you are the _top_ -selling
       | author, selling over a million copies? I feel like the author of
       | this post is just assuming that they are not that great a writer,
       | that they cannot reach the top 1% of their profession.
       | 
       | Writing books is like making video games. Many people dream of
       | creating one, and the vast majority of them are pretty bad.
       | Nevertheless, some incredible books and video games are created,
       | and the stars make a lot of money. Writing books may not be a
       | good idea if your plan is to write some average books and make an
       | average amount of money, but if you think you can write an
       | amazing book, then what else can really compare?
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | a great book can have much more social impact than any movie,
         | tv show, or other medium. Books allow for detail and
         | development that is unrivaled by other mediums
        
           | greedo wrote:
           | I think this is very open to debate. How many people in the
           | world have seen Star Wars? I would argue that no book short
           | of the Bible has had a higher impact.
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | but what is the social impact of star wars besides spawning
             | sequels?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | A ton of cheap plastic light sabers at birthday parties.
               | And millions of Yoda one-liners all over.
        
         | PeterisP wrote:
         | Reaching the top 1% of their profession still means 1k-10k
         | copies sold, nothing you can make a living on.
         | 
         | As the article states, just 0.01 percent of books sell more
         | than 100k copies, it's not enough to be a great author (not
         | average, but better than 99% of them) you'd need to be somewhat
         | exceptional (better than 99.99%) in order to earn a salary from
         | books.
         | 
         | IMHO there's just too much competition, there so many more "top
         | 1%+" authors in any genre than anyone can read, and given the
         | economics described in this article, many of them don't even
         | bother with publishing and offer their amazing writing for
         | free.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | Selling a million copies would put them in the top 0.00003% of
         | their profession - merely being in the top 1% only puts you in
         | the ramen-eating 1k-10k sales bracket.
        
         | nixtaken wrote:
         | You are assuming that the top 1% got there based on merit and
         | not money laundering -- a major feature of the business these
         | days.
        
         | armorproof wrote:
         | You've reminded me of a Stephen King quote:
         | 
         | "While it is impossible to make a competent writer out of a bad
         | writer, and while it is equally impossible to make a great
         | writer out of a good one, it is possible, with lots of hard
         | work, dedication and timely help, to make a good writer out of
         | a merely competent one."
        
         | armorproof wrote:
         | Even in the video game development industry, the stars have to
         | start somewhere. Notch himself started as a developer at King
         | before moving on to Jalbum, then Wurm Online, before even
         | starting Minecraft.
         | 
         | How else do you get the skills to create a masterpiece without
         | starting on average titles for average pay?
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | For anyone else who was surprised by that stat, don't forget
         | that this is for books _sold online_.
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | > Isn't the best case scenario here that you are the top-
         | selling author, selling over a million copies?
         | 
         | Pretty much not. The vast majority of best selling books are
         | produced by the same few authors year after year. It's far more
         | marketing than meritocracy. Some of those authors farm out
         | ghostwriting duties to numerous authors who will get paid some
         | fixed rate (not royalties) to do most of the writing.
         | 
         | Or, to put it a different way, the odds of becoming an author
         | that sells more than 500,000 copies are probably similar to or
         | less than the odds of becoming a successful Hollywood actor.
         | And probably similar to creating a video game like Minecraft or
         | being one of the founders of a unicorn.
        
       | II2II wrote:
       | > Not to mention, an author would have to come out with one book
       | a year to maintain that salary.
       | 
       | I wouldn't classify releasing one book per year as a full time
       | job, at least not based upon on the data provided.
       | 
       | Turning a writing into a full time job means:
       | 
       | - Investing considerable time into promoting a book, in an effort
       | to net more than 10,000 copies sold.
       | 
       | - Writing books that are heavily based upon research, in which
       | case your book should be selling for more than $15 per copy.
       | 
       | - Publishing more than a book per year, most likely in forms
       | other than books (unless you're an established author).
       | 
       | I'm not going to pretend that consistently writing 300 words of
       | publication quality material per day is easy. Some of us are
       | lucky if we can do as much one day in a year. On the other hand,
       | it should not be easy. At the very least, an author is implicitly
       | asking each reader to invest several hours of their life into the
       | product of their labors. Authors need to be willing to put as
       | much effort into writing as readers put into their livelihood.
        
       | AS_of wrote:
       | How is audible factored in here? I've 10X'd my audible intake
       | over the past year.
        
         | solomonb wrote:
         | Three paragraphs into the article is a chart that includes
         | audio book sales.
        
           | AS_of wrote:
           | Does that accurately represent the model of audible credits?
           | Or just actual purchases of audio books?
        
             | Karunamon wrote:
             | Is the model reasonably different? The publisher doesn't
             | get paid unless you spend a credit on their book.
        
       | andrewzah wrote:
       | I feel like I'm one of the few people that still does purchase
       | books. In 2020 & 2021 I bought music theory books from amazon +
       | jazzbooks.com, and I had some Korean books imported by a friend.
       | I have the space and bookshelves to house them though.
        
         | _joel wrote:
         | I don't think you're alone (I much prefer hardcopy) but
         | possibly a dwindling demographic. One thing I have noticed is a
         | decreased quality in print. I ordered some Rust books from
         | Amazon (printed in house) and they basically seem to be ebooks
         | that have been printed out, loads of whitespace in random areas
         | and no signs of proof-reading. I don't think this helps the
         | cause. Have been using Waterstones more recently but they are a
         | little slow on some more of the ecclectic subjects.
        
           | andrewzah wrote:
           | "I ordered some Rust books from Amazon (printed in house) and
           | they basically seem to be ebooks that have been printed out,
           | loads of whitespace in random areas and no signs of proof-
           | reading.
           | 
           | Yeah, there were multiple books that I read the reviews on
           | amazon and people were complaining about the poor print
           | quality. One of the Ted Greene books I got had a typo on the
           | 2nd page in the table of contents, so I'm not sure if any
           | proof reading is being done really.
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | I purchase books as well. I have read numerous books on epub,
         | but physical is better, easier to take notes on the side of the
         | page.
        
         | AS_of wrote:
         | Most people just don't read any books. Whether I buy physical
         | or audible mainly depends on the books content. Story-heavy
         | books (most) are great on audible, more technical stuff
         | deserves physical.
        
           | gtk40 wrote:
           | For me, technical stuff is much better in eBooks because of
           | the search functionality.
        
             | andrewzah wrote:
             | I prefer both for this reason. With physical it's easy for
             | me to mark it up/add tab bookmarks for fast reference. If I
             | buy a book I try to find it on libgen as well so I can
             | carry it around / search digitally.
        
         | moksly wrote:
         | I'm not sure where the author got the whole "people don't read
         | books" either, unless it is meant to be taken literal, this
         | excluding audiobooks.
         | 
         | I'm on 20+ books read in my good reads challenge for 2021, all
         | paid for, many through audible but some directly from the black
         | library (yes it's very stupid warhammer fiction), but all of
         | them have been audiobooks and the ones I didn't get through
         | audible cost me 33 euros a piece. So you're not the only one
         | buying books, there is at least two of us!
        
       | alphabet9000 wrote:
       | move 100% of books to ebooks and make them as obnoxious as
       | possible. start adding things like loot boxes. pay a dollar to
       | read a TOP SECRET crucial bit to the storyline that you simply
       | wont get the Full Book Experience (tm). give it Social (tm)
       | capabilities. show indicators where everyone else is reading and
       | allow comments on any sentence in the book. feature self facing
       | cameras on the ebook so you can live stream yourself reading.
       | Allow users to Like your live streams and display metrics on
       | every page.
        
         | ALittleLight wrote:
         | Kindle let's you highlight or comment on any section of the
         | book. Highlights are somewhat shared across readers in the
         | sense that I will sometimes see a passage that the Kindle says
         | has been highlighted "315 times" or some such number.
         | 
         | The popular highlight annotations always make me wonder how so
         | many highlights came to collide on a single phrase. Do some
         | people highlight a passage because it's been highlighted by
         | many other people?
        
       | peter303 wrote:
       | I often attend the annual literary scifi convention. They have
       | plenty of panels on how to increase sales. Becoming a popular
       | "brand", e.g. Asian zombie novels, helps. Writing sequels and
       | prequels to a modest central hit can help.
       | 
       | Interestingly this group has lasted decades, from well before
       | digitalization and the internet. The latter is a two edge sword,
       | providing more market and competition at the same time.
        
       | beambot wrote:
       | > there were 2.6 million books sold online in 2020 and only 268
       | of them sold more than 100,000 copies
       | 
       | I'm confused... just the top 0.0001% (268 x 100k) is 26.8M, yet
       | they claim only 2.6M books were sold total for the full year. Am
       | I missing something obvious?
        
         | rmah wrote:
         | I think they meant 2.6 mil titles, not copies.
        
           | beambot wrote:
           | Ah, I'll bet you're right! Wow, that significantly changes
           | the meaning...
        
         | warent wrote:
         | 2.6 million different titles sold, not 2.6 million copies
        
         | chanakya wrote:
         | 2.6 million different book _titles_. Not total sales of books
         | online, which is about 500m, I believe.
        
         | rjp0008 wrote:
         | The 2.6 million is the choice of books available. Like baskin
         | robins has 31 flavors but only 5 of them sold more than 100k
         | scoops.
        
         | fredgrott wrote:
         | they are comparing apples and orangs as total books sold is
         | those sold online + those sold through bookstores.
         | 
         | That being said it points to not that writing books is not
         | economical viable but that have someone else publish it is not
         | economically viable!
         | 
         | My bias, I am self publishing my first book at the end of this
         | year in flutter app dev with using paid article writing using
         | Medium.com to pay the costs of setting up the LLC, and other
         | costs such as purchasing a brand new mac laptop.
         | 
         | Note, since most people in tech do not buy 2nd screens just to
         | read and use a book it's some skewed towards the 45k number in
         | those niches, my own opinion. Most publisher advertising gets
         | one to the 15k number which is why I am using a social-media
         | and Medium article combined route to advertising the book.
        
         | iscrewyou wrote:
         | It's confusing but the percentage figure means that 2.6 million
         | individual titles were sold or available to be bought. Only 268
         | of those titles sold over 100k.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | tksmith151 wrote:
         | I think the 2.6 million books refers to 2.6 million different
         | titles that were sold rather than the total number of book
         | sales across all titles, which as you pointed out is
         | significantly higher than 2.6 million.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | Yes, that is correct. 2.6 million different titles were sold
           | (not total copies.)
        
         | AS_of wrote:
         | Besides the shoddy number work, does this really tell us
         | anything?
         | 
         | I mean, if everyone read "exactly what was needed" then that
         | would significantly change the distribution since the current
         | is based on "what marketers make me think I need."
         | 
         | Therefore, this article could be viewed as positive improvement
         | of efficiency in the book buying market. Ie more people buying
         | "the book they need" vs "want because of flashy marketing"
         | based on increased access to search and reviews.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Finnucane wrote:
         | It's also not clear if those numbers are just 'trade' books
         | (i.e., books sold through regular bookstores), or includes
         | academic titles, textbooks, reference books, etc. I mean,
         | there's a _lot_ of stuff published that has a fairly
         | specialized or otherwise limited market. Probably the
         | overwhelming majority of books fall into categories that are
         | _never_ going to sell 100K or more no matter what.
        
       | JKCalhoun wrote:
       | > perhaps it's time to face the music and realize that writing
       | books--like knitting or playing the harp--is nothing more than a
       | hobby
       | 
       | I've approached every creative endeavor in this way. I see no
       | reason writing should be any different.
       | 
       | I'm not trying to be overly cynical, I'm just not surprised that
       | writing is any different than music, painting, etc.
        
         | moksly wrote:
         | I don't think you have to approach creative endeavours as
         | hobbies at all. If you chose to approach them as a job,
         | however, then I think you should do exactly that.
         | 
         | If your writing is your business, then how can you justify
         | spending 2-3 years working on a single project with no prior
         | funding and a sales projection of less than 2000 copies priced
         | at whatever a book costs? Imagine if build software startups
         | the way some authors try to become full time writers...
         | 
         | I get it of course. We all know the romantic story of the
         | creative master who only puts out a single master piece per
         | decade, but that's something you do when you've made it. Not
         | when your projected sales are less than 2000 copies.
        
         | rikroots wrote:
         | I agree. When I started to treat my writing endeavours as a
         | hobby rather than as a path to fame, glory, riches and world
         | domination, I also started to enjoy the writing process a lot
         | more. Nowadays I only write when I want to write, and I only
         | write what I want to write. It's a freedom I've come to
         | cherish.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Do you finish anything though? A lot of writers find that the
           | effort of finishing the story is a lot more work than writing
           | the early parts and so they have half-finished novels in
           | their files that realistically they will never finished.
           | 
           | I'll leave it to the reader to decide if that is okay or not.
           | For me, I know I have too many unfinished projects and so my
           | stories will remain dreams that never get written down.
        
             | tonyp2121 wrote:
             | Thats most of everything though. The hardest part of
             | finishing your programming project is the last icky bit
             | that you really didn't want to do yet, or bug fixing, or
             | polishing. The last part of painting is the touch ups, and
             | thats also the longest part. Its much easier to just come
             | up with a sketch of a piece of art (or any project) than it
             | is to get into the nitty gritty painstaking details that it
             | requires before you can say its finished.
        
         | munificent wrote:
         | I look at the question of money and art at two levels:
         | 
         | 1. As an individual, what is the right mindset to have about my
         | creativity? At this level, I agree with you. Looking at the
         | economic trends, the only sane way to create and feel good
         | about it is to do it in my free time, focus on the intrinsic
         | reward and have some other job that pays the bills. I'm very
         | fortunate in that my other job takes good care of me.
         | 
         | But there is another level I think about a lot:
         | 
         | 2. At the cultural level, is it good for a society if people
         | can only make art in their leisure time? I consider art to be
         | (among other things) the mechanism by which we define, share,
         | and propagate our culture. Our artworks teach each generation
         | what we value and how we think one should live. They show us
         | what it means to be human.
         | 
         | If that art can only be produced by people wealthy enough to
         | have sufficient spare time (books, poetry, and painting) or
         | giant corporations (film, TV), then _you place complete control
         | over your culture in the hands of the rich_. Do you remember in
         | the 80s and 90s when it seemed like almost every movie had an
         | anti-corporate angle to it? Did you notice that they all
         | stopped doing that? What should we expect when huge
         | corporations are producing almost every film we see.
         | 
         | Should we be surprised to see that our society is failing to
         | solve inequality when most books are written by the wealthy,
         | about the wealthy, for the wealthy? How are those at the top
         | supposed to understand and care for those at the bottom when
         | those at the bottom don't even have the time to share their
         | stories with them?
         | 
         | I think a just society _needs_ art-makers to be able to focus
         | on their art without worrying about money because it 's the
         | only way to ensure that everyone at every economic level gets
         | to participate in defining our culture.
        
         | psyc wrote:
         | As someone with many lifelong creative outlets, I can think of
         | 3 reasons to create. 1. You love doing it for it's own sake 2.
         | You can't help it 3. You believe in your heart you have
         | something to say that must be said. You may well be delusional
         | about the last one, but I still consider it a good reason.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
       | This seems to match how music is consumed as well. You can
       | release a great EP or album, but unless you're a marketing savant
       | or you're well connected to someone who has a large following,
       | your work will not be discovered or listened.
       | 
       | There's simply too much music being released every day for
       | anybody to discover it, so your best bet is to target a rather
       | slim niche where you might have a chance to come to the surface
       | with a small clique of rabid fans of the genre, and slowly build
       | mass appeal one fan at a time.
        
       | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
       | Some things at work here:
       | 
       | 1. Leisure reading is at an all time low and declining [1]. I
       | think reading books will go the way of live theater and classical
       | music performances. It won't go away, but instead of a common,
       | "every-man/woman" type of outing, it will be more niche/special
       | occasion. I.e. whereas tons of people used to read often for
       | pleasure in the early part of the 20th century, it is heading
       | more towards a "only on vacation" or other special-occasion type
       | activity for most folks.
       | 
       | 2. Publishing has always been a hit-driven business, but my
       | thought is that, like many other industries affected by the
       | internet, it has consolidated even more (i.e. it's much easier to
       | search and buy just based on "top" lists than it was previously -
       | a popular book can reach a ton more people, but it's much harder
       | to be popular in the first place).
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/29/leisu...
        
         | mortenjorck wrote:
         | The parallel to performing arts is the most plausible, yet
         | optimistic counter I've seen to "people don't read books
         | anymore." Fiction has its Harry Potters just as theater has its
         | Wickeds, and Patreon is set to enable the closest literary
         | equivalent to an urban live theater scene.
        
         | jawns wrote:
         | I don't think it's going to turn into a "special occasion"
         | activity. Rather, I think you're going to have a smaller and
         | smaller number of voracious readers, but those readers will
         | continue to consume books at a pretty steady pace.
        
           | Aerroon wrote:
           | And for those readers it's about consistency. Looking at the
           | Chinese translated web novels: the stories don't even have to
           | be great, but they have enjoyable characters and there's an
           | _enormous_ amount of content.
           | 
           | People read machine translated stories! Sometimes you can't
           | even tell what's going on based on those translations, but
           | people still read them.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | hodder wrote:
       | Books, stocks, apps, websites, songs...the list goes on. Winner
       | takes all is becoming the new normal.
        
       | tomcam wrote:
       | OP mentions that the publishing business is ripe for disruption
       | but I believe that happened a decade and a half ago: it's called
       | self publishing. The problem is there's no way to collect the
       | data. Many self publishers have been kind enough to document
       | their successes on this site, but many more have a reason not to
       | do so. There is often perfectly good reason not to reveal a
       | lucrative niche.
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | >The New York Times caused a stir recently when, in an article
       | about pandemic book sales, it disclosed that "98 percent of the
       | books that publishers released in 2020 sold fewer than 5,000
       | copies."
       | 
       | this is somewhat misleading. It includes tiny publishers, niche
       | publishers, niche non-fiction, and so on. Such as "top 100 hiking
       | trails in the Bay Area" and niche stuff like that. Fiction debuts
       | by top publishing houses tend to be much more lucrative for the
       | author and sell way more copies. Most aspiring authors tend to
       | write fiction for a general audience, not niche non-fiction.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | I disagree that fiction by top publishing houses tend to be
         | more lucrative for the author. I wrote an article about that
         | one too if you're interested.
         | https://ellegriffin.substack.com/p/publishing-industry-truth
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Perhaps, but most aspiring authors are in the 98% that don't
         | get significant sales. Once you get into the big publishers
         | they will throw the marketing you need behind you - but they
         | won't touch you unless they believe Opera will love you (or
         | whatever the big promotion they needs)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | dovrce wrote:
       | Most new books aren't very good, and there's so much noise that
       | only reading old books is a perfectly good strategy.
       | 
       | The only recent stuff I buy and read is technology related, if
       | I'm going to read a narrative book it's going to be > 1 year old
        
         | dudul wrote:
         | > Most new books aren't very good
         | 
         | I don't know if this is true, but I do struggle with finding
         | recent interesting books.
         | 
         | The choice is often "Do I take a chance with this thing
         | published last year? Or do I just pick up one of the 'classics'
         | that I haven't read yet?"
         | 
         | I usually end up going with the latter simply because I don't
         | want to spend many hours reading something that ends up being
         | "meh" and I assume that going with something considered a
         | "classic" is safer. Though they do occasionally end up
         | disappointing :)
        
           | ska wrote:
           | > I don't know if this is true, but I do struggle with
           | finding recent interesting books.
           | 
           | Sturgeons law definitely applies.
           | 
           | Reading (or watching, or whatever) only older stuff is
           | basically using survivor-ship as a curation filter. It's a
           | viable approach, although will definitely miss good stuff.
           | 
           | If you don't do this, you need some other way to discard most
           | of the crap.
        
             | failwhaleshark wrote:
             | Absolutely.
             | 
             | Popularity and taste rarely coincide because most people
             | have no taste.
             | 
             | (Me covets a _The Doors of Perception / Heaven and Hell_
             | first edition.)
             | 
             | The other thing is to read books that are important, not
             | just ones that are preferred or pleasant for a wider
             | perspective:
             | 
             | - Mein Kampf
             | 
             | - Capital (Das Kapital)
             | 
             | - Technological Slavery
             | 
             | - The International Jew
             | 
             | - A Short Account of the Destruction of the Indies
             | 
             | - The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire
             | Vol. 1-6.
             | 
             | - (ones by ideological opposites)
             | 
             | - America: The Farewell Tour
             | 
             | - Sorrows of Empire
             | 
             | Also, people who don't own any books, paper or Kindle...
             | that's a big "nope."
        
           | zelienople wrote:
           | Most new books are about people. A few good new books are
           | about things. Very few great new books are about ideas.
           | 
           | The decline has affected both fiction and non-fiction. Almost
           | every book is a big disappointment these days.
        
           | joebob42 wrote:
           | Plus, for whatever it's worth the classic is already
           | guaranteed to be culturally significant. Other people will
           | have read it and you can talk to them about it, which can be
           | a fun exercise and may not be true for whatever random book
           | you could otherwise read.
        
             | dovrce wrote:
             | Exactly, anything that has survived 100 or 1000 years is
             | most likely worth your time
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | Maybe this is the case for books after all. None of our
               | television shows or movies will make it this long.
        
               | failwhaleshark wrote:
               | The Epic of Gilgamesh is roughly 3800-years-old.
               | 
               | One has to wonder though if something has survived as an
               | artifact only because there were a zillion copies of the
               | then "Steven King's" latest, or if it truly was great and
               | preserved with care by those with taste.
               | 
               | You have to wonder if the then Siskel and Ebert gave it
               | two thumbs down compared to other contemporary works.
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | I think about this all the time when it comes to
               | archeological finds. How do we know this wasn't one of
               | their worst works?
        
       | naomiajacobs wrote:
       | The idea of charging per-chapter (yes, I know it isn't a new
       | model, Charles Dickens, etc) is interesting for:
       | 
       | - the restrictions it'll impose on the authors - it means authors
       | will have to know the entire plot up-front and can't redo or
       | rearrange chapters - the pressure to have every chapter end with
       | a cliff-hanger or something else to get the user to buy the next
       | chapter - the effect on the reader (will people finish fewer
       | books?)
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | There is opportunity to rearrange things, but it is limited.
         | You need to tell your readers what happened, and make sure the
         | plot works for both readers who accept the change and those who
         | don't. I'm guessing it works best to limit this to corrections
         | ("last week I said that Joe did X, but of course he died last
         | month - it was supposed to be Joe's cousin Frank"), but it is
         | an area that I doubt it well explored to see how much readers
         | will accept.
        
           | richardwhiuk wrote:
           | You could write the novel beforehand and then just release it
           | month by month.
        
       | ineedasername wrote:
       | _Theoretically then, an author could release a new chapter every
       | week, charge subscribers $8 or $9 a month_
       | 
       | I'm not paying > $40 to read a single book over the course of
       | multiple months, even for authors that I absolutely love. With my
       | reading habits, I couldn't even _afford_ to pay that much across
       | the volume of books I read if most of my favorite authors
       | switched to such a model.
        
         | autarch wrote:
         | Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. If I paid $8/month to
         | every author that I like enough to buy most of their books,
         | that'd easily end up at $500+/month, and maybe $1,000/month.
         | Compare that to buying all their books (even in hardcover),
         | which is around $1,000 per year.
         | 
         | Plus I have no interest in reading things a chapter at a time.
         | I read one book or series from start to finish at a time. I
         | don't like jumping back and forth between many different
         | novels.
        
         | edgartaor wrote:
         | >I'm not paying > $40 to read a single book over the course of
         | multiple months
         | 
         | Me neither. Maybe I would buy the book in a presale, but that's
         | it. This kind of selling just work for early adopters, the kind
         | of people who stand in line for hours to buy a new product.
        
       | coliveira wrote:
       | > Even on the high end, there were only 11 books that sold more
       | than 500,000 copies--which is paltry when you consider that the
       | 10 best-performing Netflix films saw more than 68 million views.
       | 
       | So, this really means that the problem is not with writing, but
       | the medium (book). Because all these Netflix films were written
       | by someone. Instead of concentrating on the 11 books, the writer
       | who wants to make money should concentrate on writing movie
       | scripts for Netflix or similar.
        
         | notahacker wrote:
         | The medium (movie) requires getting someone to spend millions
         | on crew and actors to shoot your script
         | 
         | This is not necessarily any easier to achieve than writing a
         | bestselling book, especially for a first-timer, and by the time
         | the Hollywood accountants have finished calculating your share
         | of the revenue, not necessarily any more lucrative.
        
           | coliveira wrote:
           | But it was never easy for someone just starting. You'll
           | probably have to write books for close to free until
           | something becomes successful. The equation is the same both
           | for books or movie scripts.
        
       | sheikheddy wrote:
       | > There are thousands of paid fiction authors on Patreon but only
       | 25 earn more than $1,000/month, only six earn more than
       | $2,000/month, and only one earns more than the $5,000/month (and
       | she's already a bestselling author).
       | 
       | These numbers are off [1]. There are a few creators who do earn
       | more than that, but don't disclose their earnings, only the
       | number of patrons. But even if we restrict our discussion to only
       | those who disclose their earnings, there's at least 10 people who
       | make more than $5000 a month on patreon in the creative writing
       | category.
       | 
       | https://graphtreon.com/top-patreon-creators/writing
        
       | jtolmar wrote:
       | Most of what I read is serial fiction, and it has been for years.
       | The most popular site these days is Royal Road, with authors
       | offering a Patreon subscription for early access to chapters. It
       | has the same lopsided power law distribution of funding as any
       | platform for paying artists, but there are plenty of authors
       | making a living of it.
       | 
       | It's strange to see people speculating about whether this is
       | possible, since it's already here.
        
       | lumost wrote:
       | Is this the natural outcome of having larger retailers?
       | 
       | In the era of small local book stores, the store owner had large
       | discretion on what to stock. Different book stores would
       | naturally stock different books and cater to different
       | preferences. The customer would have options to discover new
       | books, but would also have popular books sometimes "hidden" by
       | the book sellers preference.
       | 
       | If every book reader is hooked into the same
       | recommendations/search feed will they naturally move to reading
       | the same books?
        
         | runevault wrote:
         | Yes, but more specifically, large retailers track the way books
         | sell and order authors based on prior success. So if an author
         | has a down book it can trigger a spiral where the big stores
         | order less and less. Amazon isn't impacted by this in the same
         | way because technically everything is on their shelves, but the
         | B&Ns and the like of the world it does (and before they went
         | under Borders as well).
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | On the other hand B&N had a lot more books. The small
           | bookshop was typically filled with the same trash that I'd
           | never read. (that is the definition of trash book: one the
           | person making that claim would never read - those retailers
           | stocked them because that is what most people read)
        
             | runevault wrote:
             | Small bookstores can be more driven by personal taste of
             | someone, be it a book buyer if they have one or the staff.
             | Like the way a lot of indie bookstores will have tagged
             | books recommended by the staff in each section, sometimes
             | the normal big names (Game of Thrones) but sometimes by far
             | less big name authors they are passionate about.
        
         | GekkePrutser wrote:
         | On the other hand the large retailers can stock huge amounts of
         | books. There is no limit anymore.
         | 
         | That said, I tend to pick my books from the top lists. But I'm
         | not a frequent reader.
        
       | fencepost wrote:
       | Content is not the problem, there's a ton of content out there
       | (even more now that self publishing is so easy). Discovery and
       | discoverability are both the big problem and where the industry
       | has been - be it books or music.
       | 
       | This reminds me of indy musicians who are able to make a living
       | by working with and for their relatively small groups of fans.
       | It's the approach pushed by the Beatnik Turtle guys in a book 15
       | years ago (Indie Musician Survival Guide or something like that),
       | but I know both published and unpublished authors who've done the
       | same (notably a few books in Sharon Lee and Steve Miller's Liaden
       | Universe, which was then picked up by Baen).
        
       | kpwagner wrote:
       | In the month it will take me to finish reading Storm of Swords, I
       | will watch ~10 movies. Plus, I'm reading Storm of Swords, which
       | needs no additional support from readers to be discovered or
       | validated--though I still want to read it. Plus, I digitally
       | loaned it from my local library.
       | 
       | I own a number of books (~200) and have probably owned x4 that
       | total in my lifetime. Maybe 1/3 of those I paid full price for
       | new. The rest I sourced either cheap on Ebay or about free from
       | second-hand stores. I've spent probably less than $4,000 total on
       | books, not counting textbooks, while being in the minority of
       | people who buy and read books.
       | 
       | I don't really know where I'm going with this, but the question
       | that comes to mind is something like this: how many people like
       | me does it take to support one professional writer?
       | 
       | Non-fiction writers are way more likely to have other income
       | sources than fiction writers. For example, I'm reading Marketing
       | Made Simple (Donald Miller), which was free with Amazon Prime.
       | I'm quite sure Donald Miller and his company are not sweating how
       | much money they get from a Prime reader: getting anyone to read
       | their book strengthens their overall sales funnel.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | While there are some that make meaningful amounts of money, all
         | my experience suggests that writing non-fiction tech books for
         | example, is overwhelmingly reputational.
         | 
         | I certainly still own--though I've gotten rid of a fair number
         | --a lot of books but, no, I don't read a lot any longer. Maybe
         | about 10 a year which is probably 20% of what I once did.
        
         | weeblewobble wrote:
         | I've been an Audible paid subscriber for 10 years. I have 138
         | audiobooks in my library. At $10/month, that means I've paid
         | Audible $1200 for ~2000 hours of "reading". Using the 25%
         | royalties mentioned in a child comment (no idea if that's
         | accurate) I've paid authors only $300 for all of that. That
         | seems super low! And I imagine I'm in the top quintile in terms
         | of paying for "books".
        
         | snet0 wrote:
         | Forgive me if I'm wrong, but my assumption is that buying
         | second-hand books gives no money to the author.
         | 
         | I don't know, morally speaking if this should be the case. It
         | does feel wrong for people to get the experience without paying
         | the price of admission. Can this be solved logistically,
         | though? And do publishers factor this into their RRP?
        
           | matsemann wrote:
           | But things I cannot resell I would pay less for. For certain
           | items the amount I'm willing to pay is a function also
           | including what I can sell it for when I'm done with it.
        
             | snet0 wrote:
             | Yes, I absolutely agree. When you buy something you imagine
             | yourself reselling, you can factor the resale price into
             | the total cost.
             | 
             | I don't think this is a counter to my argument, though. I'm
             | not saying it is wrong to be able to resell books, I am
             | just pointing out that reselling books _without the author
             | receiving any money_ strikes me as morally improper. As I
             | mentioned in another comment, I 'm not convinced that there
             | exists a decent solution to this problem, and I imagine
             | that it's at least in part factored into RRPs, but I just
             | thought it was something to consider.
        
           | spoonjim wrote:
           | Well technology is solving this problem, e-books are not
           | transferable so there is no secondhand market. Problem
           | solved! (but don't expect to ever inherit a book collection
           | that has titles you'd never heard of, that opens your eyes to
           | different things).
        
           | jogjayr wrote:
           | Buying a house from a homeowner gives no money to the
           | original builder, or the first human being to inhabit that
           | piece of land. Do you feel guilty about getting shelter
           | without paying the price of admission?
        
             | snet0 wrote:
             | I think this is a disingenuous comparison. Builders get
             | paid _to build_ houses. Authors, to my knowledge, do not
             | frequently get paid _to write_ books, they get paid when
             | they sell books.
             | 
             | When you resell a house, you are not denying the builders
             | anything. When you resell a book, you are (possibly)
             | denying the author a sale.
        
               | jogjayr wrote:
               | > When you resell a house, you are not denying the
               | builders anything
               | 
               | You're denying the builder a sale of a new house.
               | 
               | Re-selling books is already legal. You bought a physical
               | item, not the right to use the item. Ownership implies
               | the right to dispose of the item as one wishes. You asked
               | whether it was morally correct. I was showing you that
               | many other things are frequently resold with no moral
               | implications.
        
           | jrochkind1 wrote:
           | Once you go down that path, it starts getting kind of
           | dystopian. Should it be illegal for me to lend or give a book
           | to a friend without paying a fee, because then they are
           | "getting the experience without paying the price of
           | admission"? I'm reading a book to three kids, should I have
           | to pay more than reading the book to one kid? That's three
           | times as many kids "getting the experience", same "price of
           | admission"! Taking the book to my brothers house to read to
           | his kids -- nope, that's illegal unless you buy another copy?
        
             | snet0 wrote:
             | I absolutely agree, I don't think solving this problem is
             | something that can really be considered. I do think it's a
             | problem, though.
             | 
             | I think you're taking my analogy of tickets too far,
             | though. It was simply to highlight the fact that, by
             | reading the book without paying the author a dime, you are
             | getting permanent access to the materials without the
             | author being paid, which I think is an issue.
             | 
             | I think the only feasible solution is a kind of royalty fee
             | on resales, but I can easily imagine this becoming a
             | logistical nightmare. As I said, I'm not sure this problem
             | has a workable solution.
        
               | jrochkind1 wrote:
               | In fact, I think maybe in Europe second-hand bookstores
               | do pay some kind of royalties? Maybe libraries do too?
               | 
               | In the US, the "first sale doctrine" has legally
               | preserved the right to give, rent, or sell an object
               | legally in your possession, without the permission of the
               | copyright holder.
               | 
               | For 100 years (I believe the first sale doctrine was
               | first established in 1908), it did not imperil the
               | business of writing and selling books.
               | 
               | In 2021, that market does seem imperiled, as the OP is
               | about... but I don't think the 100-year-old first-sale
               | doctrine is to blame, or eliminating it would
               | fundamentally change the market forces. I mean, if it was
               | the issue, then the market for books would be
               | fundamentally different (and better for copyright
               | holders) in Europe than the US, but is it?
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | No, because second hand markets influence the first hand
           | price.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | That same logic presumably applies to libraries. Books are
           | physical objects at the end of the day just like a piece of
           | pottery someone made. First sale doctrine explicitly allows
           | the owner to lend or resell it to someone else.
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | Some countries solve this by paying the authors for each
             | lend. Ofc, not nearly similar amount, but over long term
             | it's not unreasonable.
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Yes! Exactly! Right now the ebook library model is based
             | off the physical book library model where the library
             | purchases a certain number of ebooks (say 10) and the
             | author only gets a portion of the royalties on those ten
             | copies, and then the library loans those copies out to an
             | unlimited number of people.
             | 
             | It should be managed more like Spotify- where books can be
             | read unlimitedly, but the author gets paid royalties every
             | time someone reads their book. (Similar to how an artist
             | gets paid everytime their song is streamed). I might
             | actually write about this for a future post.
        
               | snet0 wrote:
               | This is what I think the best course looks like. I know
               | there are issues with Spotify's model (at least, I have
               | heard people make this claim), but given that music had
               | to transition to a streaming-based model (and considering
               | that written text looks to be slowly going this way, too)
               | the per-consumption royalty looks good to me.
               | 
               | Of course, instantiating this in the real world is
               | another question. For ebook libraries, it certainly seems
               | plausible, but for regular libraries?
        
               | ellegriffin wrote:
               | Right, exactly. And we could learn from spotify (pay the
               | creators more). But the ebook library is huge now and
               | could easily be transformed. The only problem is that
               | they aren't charging a monthly subscription fee (like
               | Spotify) and so they would have to use donation dollars
               | to fund that. And yet, I have to wait 15 weeks to get a
               | book on my kindle because other people are reading it
               | first, which seems very outdated.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | NFTs are trying to solve for this, but I'm not sure how
           | mainstream that will become.
           | 
           | For instance: https://emily.mirror.xyz/0AFENlMKv9amUC1OJIZY26
           | udpISw_raXkoE...
           | 
           | In this case, Emily crowdfunded her novel using the
           | cryptocurrency ETH. People "invested" in her book buy
           | purchasing the NFT, so that they can later sell their
           | investment again (and the writer will get royalties if they
           | do).
           | 
           | I think this might be a little too out there to become
           | mainstream. HOWEVER, I do think the library model could be
           | tweaked to favor the author.
           | 
           | Right now the ebook library model is based off the physical
           | book library model where the library purchases a certain
           | number of ebooks (say 10) and the author only gets a portion
           | of the royalties on those ten copies, and then the library
           | loans those copies out to an unlimited number of people.
           | 
           | It should be managed more like Spotify- where books can be
           | read unlimitedly, but the author gets paid royalties every
           | time someone reads their book. (Similar to how an artist gets
           | paid everytime their song is streamed). I might actually
           | write about this for a future post.
        
         | lacker wrote:
         | _how many people like me does it take to support one
         | professional writer?_
         | 
         | Back of the envelope, I would estimate authors get 1/4 of book
         | sales as royalties, so you've sent $1000 to authors in your
         | lifetime. I don't know how old you are, maybe that's $100/year
         | since you were at book-buying age. If an author gets by on
         | $30k/year then it takes 300 people like you to support a
         | professional writer.
         | 
         | That's not bad, really. If you watch 120 movies a year then
         | you're probably supporting the movie industry more than the
         | book industry but it sounds like you prefer movies to books
         | anyway so that's fair.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | Many problems with this analysis, I'll leave it as an
           | exercise to the reader to notice what they are.
        
         | FirstLvR wrote:
         | when i was young and poor i wouldnt mind being a pirate
         | 
         | but now, being a professional i wouldnt mind paying ... i would
         | gladly pay $50 for winds of winter if GRRM could finish the
         | book!
         | 
         | look at the expanse saga on primevideo, the books were selling
         | ok but now is a hit box world wide
        
         | wccrawford wrote:
         | A lot, but it's not just people like you.
         | 
         | I buy quite a few books. Almost all digital now. I probably buy
         | a book every other month now. It'd be more, except that...
         | 
         | I also subscribe to Amazon Unlimited and read a lot of books on
         | it.
         | 
         | I never buy movies now. If the theatres were open, I'd see 2,
         | maybe 3 movies in a year with my wife. The rest I watch on
         | Netflix/etc when they come out for free. I watch maybe 6 movies
         | a month, and 4 of those are because we have a virtual movie
         | night with a lot of friends every week since Covid started.
         | 
         | We watch a _lot_ of TV, but again, Netflix /etc. We don't even
         | pay for cable. We _never_ buy TV series unless it 's something
         | really special.
        
       | DanielBMarkham wrote:
       | Goals are very important to acknowledge. If you're only
       | interested in income and are writing fiction, the numbers are
       | against you. In general, as the author shows, writing isn't a
       | great source of direct income.
       | 
       | If, however, you've accumulated a lot of research on a personal
       | topic and want to gather the threads together and reach some
       | personal conclusions, long-form non-fiction is probably the only
       | tool that's going to work, whether you publish or not.
       | 
       | There are many more indirect benefits for various niche genres.
       | If you reduce it all to money, you're not going to be happy.
       | Everybody can publish now and as a result of that, most books are
       | not that great. One wag said that the great majority of books
       | published today shouldn't be published at all. I tend to agree,
       | at least in terms of publishing for a wide audience. It's just
       | that book publishing doesn't have to be like that.
       | 
       | I'm starting on another book this year. Each of my previous books
       | has had less than 1,000 readers and I'm happy as a clam. In fact,
       | I really don't want to start publishing to a mass audience. In my
       | opinion, looking at writing only in terms of a mass audience is
       | the best way to start writing a lot of highly-targeted trash.
       | Everybody is already trying to write the next version of
       | serialized pulp fiction. That's why, in my opinion, no matter how
       | well you write for any sized audience at all it's only going to
       | end up being mediocre (by comparison). If, however, you write
       | reasonably well on a laser-focused extremely small niche that you
       | have great passion for? You win even if you get only seven
       | readers.
       | 
       | Beat the game by not playing by the rules they give you.
        
         | megameter wrote:
         | Related is also to choose to work in the appropriate medium.
         | There are many things called books, but not all of them are
         | defined by numbered chapters, carefully outlined paragraphs and
         | artful prose - and it's the _obligation_ of such that tends to
         | act as a barrier.
         | 
         | A 8-page zine can usually get the essence of an idea out of
         | your head, and the format lends itself to thinking about the
         | overall aesthetic as part of the message.
        
       | Tycho wrote:
       | Another thing about books is: why take the chance of reading a
       | book that is new? There's thousands of classics to occupy
       | yourself with as a reader, or even books from 20 years ago that
       | have stood some test of time.
        
       | setikites wrote:
       | Another feasible option is finding a niche market and publishing
       | quality books that are either new or out of print to build that
       | community. https://lostartpress.com/
        
       | TheCoelacanth wrote:
       | > Traditional publishers are looking for a sure thing. They want
       | an author who already has an existing platform and can guarantee
       | an audience.
       | 
       | This seems factually untrue. Obviously, that's the ideal author
       | that they will pay out big advances to, but publishers publish
       | tons of books by unproven authors.
       | 
       | They publish a lot of books hoping to find a few that take off
       | and sell well.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | All: large threads get paginated so to see all the comments you
       | need to click More at the bottom, or on links like this:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27106055&p=2
       | 
       | It's a good thread; I recommend it.
       | 
       | (Comments like this will go away once pagination does--it's just
       | a performance workaround. Sorry for the annoyance.)
        
       | lurquer wrote:
       | We're getting very very close to the point where a group of
       | amateurs can make a 'major motion picture.' Not quite yet... but
       | it's getting closer. CGI can create sets and even characters; AI
       | tools to assist with rotoscope and backfill are becoming quite
       | incredible.
       | 
       | These tools are still packaged in relatively inaccessible
       | environments (such as Blender and AfterEffects and others.)
       | 
       | But, that's changing too.
       | 
       | In short, it's going to become increasingly tempting to a
       | creative type to ditch the book he's writing and, instead, make a
       | movie.
       | 
       | Sounds silly.
       | 
       | But, what occurred in the musical realm (where rank amateurs can
       | simulate an entire orchestra on their PC if need be) is going to
       | happen with Movies.
       | 
       | Books -- as a vehicle for drama -- may not be coming back.
        
       | chiefalchemist wrote:
       | How many apps do really well?
       | 
       | How many albums do really well?
       | 
       | How many movies do really well?
       | 
       | While the outliers (read: successful) are as sexy as a gold rush,
       | they are rare. That's not to say you should not try. Do what you
       | must. Someone has to be the next outlier.
       | 
       | The reality is, the combo of quality and quantity is a unicorn.
       | You have to have something exceptional in some way. The
       | scrapheaps of history say that's easier said than done.
       | 
       | Put another way, in order to get to that golden 1,000 fans at
       | $100 per year, how many months will you have to publish? 24? 36?
       | More?
        
       | yoru-sulfur wrote:
       | The writer of this article seems to be unaware of existing
       | communities of exactly what they are taking about.
       | 
       | They mentioned Jemisin's patreon as if she's invented the idea or
       | is the only one who's had success doing it, which is simply not
       | true.
       | 
       | Go to https://royalroad.com, view top rated stories, click on
       | basically anything and you'll see patreon links of authors making
       | thousands of dollars per month/chapter.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Yes, I totally understand that there are authors earning money
         | from their AO3, royal road accounts. But, very few are making a
         | living doing it. Jemisin was an exception. Of the fiction
         | writers that currently have a Patreon account: "only 25 earn
         | more than $1,000/month, only six earn more than $2,000/month,
         | and only one earns more than the $5,000/month (and she's
         | already a bestselling author)."
         | 
         | I hope that there are more, and if you can find them please let
         | me know!!!
        
           | yoru-sulfur wrote:
           | Hmm, now that I look into it more closely, most of these
           | authors are making less than I expected. I've never actually
           | visited most of their patreons to actually check, but yes
           | most of them aren't making that much from it.
           | 
           | It doesn't actually counter your main point, but I do think I
           | have dug up more than 1 making more than $5000/month.
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/RhaegarRRL has 3317 patrons with a
           | minimum donation of $3 per month, so even though the actual
           | number is hidden that should be more than $5000
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/user?u=4240617 is similar, but with
           | more patrons and a lower minimum.
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/Wildbow is simply at more than $5000
           | per month.
           | 
           | Where did you get those stats you quoted?
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | tarr11 wrote:
       | I used to read a lot more books 10-20 years ago. Now, I mostly
       | read books on vacation.
       | 
       | I think I have an unspoken budget of "words read daily" that is
       | consumed by work and my mobile devices.
        
         | pier25 wrote:
         | > _I think I have an unspoken budget of "words read daily" that
         | is consumed by work and my mobile devices._
         | 
         | I agree. Considering word count, I read more now than ever but
         | I read a fraction of the books I used to read 15-20 years ago.
        
         | peter303 wrote:
         | I check a 100 books out of the library each year. But probably
         | read just a third before they are due. Book greed!
         | 
         | Pre-covid I'd mainly use the new non-fiction shelf. Since our
         | libraries arent open in person yet, I mainly get book ideas
         | from book reviews like in HN or NYT.
        
         | AS_of wrote:
         | As you get older, you should read fewer new books, and revisit
         | the ones that have you the most joy. Vacation sounds like a
         | great place for that!
         | 
         | Edit: why? Because you believe in the leverage algorithms can
         | provide https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-
         | Science-Deci...
         | 
         | There are probably a lot of single people here that would
         | benefit from that book as well (the stopping problem)
         | 
         | We all "know" the algos. But reading/hearing how they can be
         | applied and what effect they can have on your life can be
         | enlightening.
        
           | hashkb wrote:
           | > should
           | 
           | Why?
        
           | martincmartin wrote:
           | _should_
           | 
           | why is that?
        
           | dudul wrote:
           | I don't know if you _should_ but it 's not a bad advice. I do
           | that occasionally, re-read a book I read as a teenager or
           | young adult and it is interesting how sometimes one can pick
           | up different details or understand things differently.
        
           | sremani wrote:
           | If one is reading to apply the acquired knowledge, the above
           | is an excellent advice.
           | 
           | Also, do not underestimate the power of re-reading great
           | books, new and deeper insights are attained during the second
           | and third reads.
        
           | sidibe wrote:
           | I'm always surprised when people talk about rereading books.
           | I get absolutely nothing out of books I've already read. Do
           | you also rewatch TV series?
        
             | leephillips wrote:
             | I do both. And movies. If it's not worth reading or
             | watching a second or third time, it wasn't worth it the
             | first time. I read _Hamlet_ every year or two. It gets me
             | every time. I've seen the _Maltese Falcon_ about five
             | times, and it still amazes me with its perfection each
             | time. I've seen the _Pickle Rick_ episode of _Rick and
             | Morty_ three times, and I fully intend to watch it three
             | more times. Pure genius. Anything good has layers and
             | details that usually can not be fully appreciated the first
             | time through. Do you only listen to a song you like once?
        
             | macksd wrote:
             | Actually, yes. I haven't done it with books, but there are
             | a few shows I've rewatched. Usually it's something I enjoy
             | having on in the background while I do other things,
             | similar to having background music. It started as me just
             | knowing I liked the show, and not needing to pay full
             | attention to it to follow along. But I notice a lot of new
             | things on subsequent viewing, and knowing the basic plot
             | already I'm able to appreciate how the writers are setting
             | things up, establishing the characters, etc. in ways that
             | become very significant later. And the first-time through I
             | just don't notice that kind of thing or appreciate it. It
             | feels like getting more depth in the art of it rather than
             | just experiencing more breadth from another artist.
        
             | andreilys wrote:
             | The value of re-reading will be low if you're reading high
             | noise to signal books that could be compressed into a blog
             | post (e.g. anything by Adam Grant).
             | 
             | If you read more dense books of philosophy, literature, or
             | otherwise you'll get a lot more value out of re-reading
             | since you likely have missed things upon first read. Same
             | thing with tv shows that contain a complicated plot vs.
             | ones that are churned out for quick consumption.
        
             | HumblyTossed wrote:
             | I'm the same for fiction; I can't read a fiction book
             | twice. My SO can re-read the same fiction over and over. I
             | just don't get it. Now, there are some movies I can watch
             | again. But only once or twice and then I'm done for a very
             | long time.
        
             | alasdair_ wrote:
             | > Do you also rewatch TV series
             | 
             | Good ones, with a lot of depth, absolutely.
             | 
             | I also look at paintings more than once in my life, consume
             | my favorite meals more than once and so on. For those
             | without a perfect memory, re-reading a good book can often
             | teach us new things.
        
             | marcus_holmes wrote:
             | I always find something I missed the first time around. Or
             | I feel differently about the story. There's always
             | something different.
        
             | Minor49er wrote:
             | Rereading a book, one could pick up on things that were
             | missed previously or that have been forgotten about. Also,
             | one might be in a different life situation or mindset from
             | one read to the next which could alter the perception or
             | enjoyment of what's being read. Not to mention that some
             | prose can be appreciated for its beauty.
             | 
             | TV shows, movies, and albums are often revisited by people
             | who enjoy them. Even as I write this, I'm listening to an
             | album right now that I've heard dozens of times before. I
             | may not always be in the mood to listen to it, but my
             | enjoyment of the music has not been eroded by how many
             | times I've already heard it. Rather, being familiar with
             | it, I appreciate both how it's composed, played, and the
             | nuances that are now apparent to me that I certainly missed
             | on my first listens.
             | 
             | One of my favorite books when I was younger was
             | "Understanding Comics: The Invisible Art" by Scott McCloud.
             | It was visually appealing to me at the time, but after
             | several readings, I started to really grasp its concepts as
             | an educational art book.
        
               | matsemann wrote:
               | > _Also, one might be in a different life situation or
               | mindset from one read to the next which could alter the
               | perception or enjoyment of what 's being read_
               | 
               | Catcher in the Rye springs to mind. Interesting reading
               | at different times.
               | 
               | One additional point is that when you know where the plot
               | is going and things that are "unknown" at the time, one
               | can appreciate some of the hints or world building even
               | more. Like a detective novel or so, on re-read knowing
               | the killer one can analyze everything and get a new
               | experience from the same content.
               | 
               | I also re-read like people listen to music. I read Harry
               | Potter 1-3 a few times waiting for book four, then
               | 1-2-3-4, then next year 1-2-3-4-5 etc, and then each exam
               | period at uni I would read it when relaxing. Like, just
               | turn my brain off, I don't want new input, just replay
               | something. So I've probably read the first 3-4 books 30+
               | times (I had a count up to 20 or so).
        
             | sandyarmstrong wrote:
             | Books, TV series, movies, music...if I make some emotional
             | connection while experiencing it, I'm likely to want to
             | repeat that experience later.
             | 
             | When I buy a book (or in the olden days, a DVD/etc), I'm
             | factoring rereadings into the value proposition. If I don't
             | think I'm going to want to reread, I'll prefer to get it
             | from the library.
             | 
             | So, most content in my personal library is there because I
             | expect to experience it repeatedly. And I'll tell you, it
             | can be fascinating to take some experience you treasured as
             | as preteen, and then experience it anew from the
             | perspective of a parent. It's pretty funny relating more to
             | the dopey dad and less to the hero.
             | 
             | But not everything is about getting a different take on
             | repeat experiences. Sometimes I just want another hit of
             | whatever that piece of media made me feel.
        
             | sremani wrote:
             | Re-reading Pop-Psy and Airport literature is not the
             | recommended reading. How about reading Hayek, Strauss for
             | second time? How about reading man's search for meaning for
             | the third time?
             | 
             | You re-read great works, not NYT best shiller! (sic).
        
               | arsome wrote:
               | Why would you re-read them when you could read something
               | new? Do you find you're actually getting a significant
               | amount of value or joy from it the second time around?
               | 
               | I ask because I think a good portion of the reason I
               | enjoy software development is the absolute and total
               | hatred I have for repetition in my life.
        
               | iNate2000 wrote:
               | 1. It's totally easy to miss things when reading:
               | certainly little delightful details, or even whole ideas
               | or plot points.
               | 
               | 2. It's not like there are millions of great books out
               | there. Some entertaining ones, some informative ones, a
               | few that are both, and a very few life changers.
        
               | phaemon wrote:
               | Well, to your first point, because I value depth over
               | novelty. The second time should be better.
               | 
               | To your second point, to quote Prince, "There is joy in
               | repetition".
        
               | psyc wrote:
               | More than 90% of things that are new to me disappoint me.
               | I don't know how to find new things, especially fiction,
               | with the expectation that it will hold my interest.
               | Whereas something new from my favorite author has much
               | better odds, and rereading my favorite novel is a sure
               | thing.
        
               | SamoyedFurFluff wrote:
               | For some highly complex books, a reread is more like a
               | re-analysis of the text based off of ones existing
               | knowledge. There will be nuances and details that were
               | missed the first go around, that is uncovered the second
               | time around, making the understanding of the piece
               | richer. It's like mathematics- everything is built on
               | fundamentals.
               | 
               | (Some people also derive comfort in familiar stories.)
        
               | canadianfella wrote:
               | Gatekeeper
        
               | teucris wrote:
               | Quite an assumption to make about those that don't like
               | to re-read books. I love reading, I'm very picky about
               | the books I read, and yet I find I'm only re-reading a
               | small handful of books, many years after I last read
               | them.
               | 
               | What am I to read in the mean time?
        
               | sremani wrote:
               | I had to make some assumptions - given the OP said they
               | did not see any value in re-reading. Not every thing is a
               | candidate for re-read, for the fact of the matter 90% of
               | airport literature is not worth single read let alone re-
               | read.
               | 
               | Take any good from my post and leave the rest. I am not
               | the most finesse commentator.. but at least I am not
               | accusatory.
        
             | psyc wrote:
             | I'm as surprised at your surprise! I've seen The Office in
             | its entirety more than 10 times, my other favorite shows
             | 3-5 times each, and most generally popular shows at least
             | twice. Often when a new season arrives, I start again at
             | season 1 if it's been a while. Same goes for my favorite
             | novels, of which there aren't as many.
             | 
             | Perhaps it's relevant that I have a terrible memory for
             | plot.
        
             | kpwagner wrote:
             | I think this really varies from person to person.
             | 
             | I re-read maybe 5% of books, and I tend to get a lot out of
             | re-reading. Nassim Taleb said something like "if it's not
             | worth re-reading, it was not worth reading in the first
             | place".
             | 
             | My re-watch rate on movies and TV series is much higher,
             | probably 85% of movies I will watch more than once. TV
             | series, maybe 50%.
             | 
             | Some people just read or watch and never care to think much
             | about it after. That's cool too; doesn't hurt me any.
        
             | crumpled wrote:
             | The complexity of A Song of Ice and Fire... You get a lot
             | out of a second read-through. There the density of the plot
             | development is so thick that you don't even know what
             | you're supposed to focus on. Some things that are mentioned
             | in the first few hundred pages can resonate much stronger
             | after reading the last few hundred pages.
             | 
             | That's just one example. It obviously depends on the book.
             | Getting "absolutely nothing" out of something seems more
             | like a choice.
        
             | ssully wrote:
             | Rereading (or "reexperiencing") something can be very
             | valuable. Since you already know where the destination is
             | going to be, you get to focus your attention on more of the
             | little details you might not have picked up on the first
             | time through.
             | 
             | With that said, I only occasionally do it for books because
             | of the time commitment. I have a large list of books I want
             | to read, and only read about 25 books a year. So if I am
             | going to reread something, it's usually for a specific
             | reason or I am was in a specific mood.
        
               | leephillips wrote:
               | When Vladimir Nabokov was teaching literature, he
               | instructed the students to read each novel twice, to get
               | over the plot suspense so they could concentrate on the
               | details. When they appeared for the final examination,
               | they encountered questions like, "Describe the wallpaper
               | in the Karenins' bedroom".
        
             | runevault wrote:
             | At different points in your life great stories can impact
             | you in different ways. A simple example of one that could
             | do this is The Road by Cormack McCarthy. I never had kids,
             | but from what I've heard people who read it after becoming
             | a parent are hit with far stronger emotions than those who
             | don't have kids.
        
             | NoOneNew wrote:
             | While I understand the idea of rereading a few books here
             | and there, it's pretentious assholery to imagine you
             | shouldn't read new books because you're getting older.
             | That's just an idiot who pretends to be the smartest guy in
             | the room. There aren't too many types of people more
             | pathetic than someone who never tries new entertainment. "I
             | only like the old stuff". Because someone is only a good
             | artist or writer after they've been dead for a century.
        
             | csunbird wrote:
             | I also find re-reading books frequently have diminishing
             | returns, but after some time, you and your world changes,
             | which results in you having a different point of view when
             | you re-read the book.
             | 
             | As you change, the meaning of the book to you changes as
             | well, and gives you new perspectives along with new ideas.
             | E.g. a specific villain or a side character in the book
             | might not be attractive or simply confusing to you, but as
             | you re-read the book, you realize that you get them and
             | they now make perfect sense.
        
           | arsome wrote:
           | Maybe it's just me, but I find marginal joy drops
           | exponentially by repetition.
        
             | sumtechguy wrote:
             | It has been about 15+ years since I had watched TOS star
             | trek. I recently started watching them again. I recently
             | went back and am watching 1 a week, same with Stargate. I
             | find them very enjoyable again. Some books/movies/shows
             | work better at a particular pace. I found that binge
             | watching them makes them decidedly less enjoyable. Other
             | shows are basically designed to be 10 hour movies. So those
             | are OK to do that with (westworld being an example of
             | that).
             | 
             | Sometimes it is worth taking a break and give it a decent
             | amount of time. Then watch it again. I have a few dozen
             | shows I know I liked when I was younger. I could even give
             | you a 'outline' of one of the shows that I could make up.
             | Yet for the life of me I could not tell you exactly what 1
             | episode was about without looking it up. I know I liked
             | them. Yet I no longer really remember them. Those are ripe
             | for revisiting. But sometimes it is best to leave them as
             | 'fondly remembered' and my older sensibilities do not match
             | what I had years ago.
             | 
             | But yeah watching the same thing every other day and you
             | will grow bored with it.
        
               | leephillips wrote:
               | I also recently went through the TOS. It really holds up.
               | The best episodes are timeless. TOS has an energy and
               | drama that I don't see in any of the shows or movies that
               | leach off of that world. I'm probably biased, as TOS is
               | part of my childhood, but it's the only one I like.
        
           | jrochkind1 wrote:
           | > As you get older, you should read fewer new books,
           | 
           | What? Why? Who says?
           | 
           | I plan to read just as many if not more new books as I get
           | older.
           | 
           | I do not understand your answer about "the leverage
           | algorithms can provide".
           | 
           | I enjoy reading new fiction books. Why "should" I do it less
           | as I get older? If I someday retire, I would plan to use some
           | of my additional free time to read even more books.
        
       | rland wrote:
       | Maybe we should restructure our value system a bit to value
       | writing a book more.
       | 
       | The takeaway from this article is "writing books doesn't produce
       | value, so less people should do so." Everyone agrees (or
       | professes to agree) that books have value. So why don't they have
       | value? We can decide, we're not slaves to the market economy.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | CapmCrackaWaka wrote:
       | Unlike movies/TV shows, books tend to 'age' relatively slowly.
       | Many books that were written 30 years ago are still immensely
       | enjoyable today. Not only that, but there are a literal ton of
       | books out there that have been read by hundreds of thousands of
       | people and reviewed extensively.
       | 
       | I have found my personal enjoyment of a book to be loosely
       | correlated with the goodreads / B&N scores. This gives me at
       | least some signal with which to choose a new book. So why should
       | I, as a reader, try out a new author / book that hasn't been read
       | by anyone else? I'm sure there are a few jewels out there, but
       | I'm sure there are even more duds. Reading a book takes time, and
       | I don't want to waste my time / money on random selections of
       | books.
        
         | dale_glass wrote:
         | It depends a lot on what books. Many technical books age
         | extremely quickly. You definitely don't want a 30 years old C++
         | book except for some sort of historical research purpose.
         | 
         | But even in literature there is timing, themes, references and
         | fashion. You'd have a hard time writing Don Quixote today,
         | because hardly anyone reads chivalric romances anymore, so the
         | vast majority of people wouldn't know what you're even
         | parodying. And I suspect most modern readers of Don Quixote
         | don't really get it, excluding those with an education in
         | european medieval literature.
         | 
         | Even without going that far, there are fads and fashions. If
         | you want to write about wizards or vampires there probably are
         | better and worse times to do it.
         | 
         | Even playing your cards right, how likely are you to get a hit?
         | Because there's really no lack of good books on most any
         | subject at this point, and it takes a very dedicated reader to
         | exhaust the existing catalog, and the easiest way for a reader
         | is to find out what's popular and try that, rather than giving
         | a new author a chance.
        
           | dionidium wrote:
           | _> You definitely don 't want a 30 years old C++ book except
           | for some sort of historical research purpose._
           | 
           | I think even here it depends on what you're trying to get out
           | of it. I wouldn't read K&R to get the latest information
           | about how to write modern C, but I read that book once every
           | 5 years or so because there are timeless aspects at its core.
           | This is even more true of a book like SICP.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | This is so relatable. I hunt out obscure books, but that's
         | because I love really old surreal things and that is not the
         | norm. And that's why only a few books get all the sales.
         | Because they are the ones that turn up on Goodreads/etc. It's
         | not bad that it works out that way. It's just, how do those
         | other authors turn up on goodreads?
        
         | gnulinux wrote:
         | When I read books, I enjoy it a lot more when I read a "known
         | great" book. It's easier to just pick up a Dostoyevksy, Kafka,
         | Saramago, or Murakami or whatever. Chances are I'm gonna like
         | it, or it'll be entertaining enough.
         | 
         | When I try to explore my own likes, it ends up being
         | frustrating because it takes a lot of trial and error.
         | Consequently, I have no insensitive to read books that are
         | recently published. It makes a lot more sense to wait for
         | people to read books for me and tell me what are the great ones
         | every decade. Meh, it works for me. Yes, I end up reading
         | mostly 19th and 20th century stuff, but it feels sufficient.
        
           | deckard1 wrote:
           | Time is an excellent filter of quality.
           | 
           | Back when I was a kid my mom had a box of 7" vinyl records
           | she gave me. For every Elton John or Hendrix she had, there
           | were dozens of absolute garbage records. People often make
           | the claim that music was better back then. No, it has just
           | been filtered for you.
           | 
           | For books I tend to do the same as you. I have a finite
           | amount of time on this planet and so little time to read in
           | the first place. I usually reach for something older than 20
           | years.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | ME TOO. I pretty much only read classics. They are just so
           | philosophically complex! I wish that we read now, like we
           | read then. But I suppose television and video content are an
           | art in their own way, and I could adapt my writing
           | preferences to the screen. But I just have no interest there.
           | Perhaps I'm just stuck in another century!
        
         | trutannus wrote:
         | > Many books that were written 30 years ago are still immensely
         | enjoyable today
         | 
         | I'd argue that there's a large amount of books that don't age
         | out of their value. There's a lot of good material out there
         | written over a hundred years ago that's more enjoyable that the
         | average modern book. Even books which are tightly coupled to
         | their time period are all still relevant and valuable today.
         | 
         | A funny example, I was reading an author yesterday who
         | discussed a social issue at a local university, and quoted a
         | professor who shares the exact name of a well known professor
         | today who comments on similar issues.
         | 
         | Most of what I read is well over 30 years old, if not older.
         | And very much of it still reflects the world today.
        
           | KineticLensman wrote:
           | > Even books which are tightly coupled to their time period
           | are all still relevant and valuable today
           | 
           | As an example of this I would cite "Mr Britling Sees It
           | Through" [0] which was written by HG Wells during World War
           | 1. It was published in 1916 and describes in a novel the
           | public reaction to the early stages of the war - and Wells
           | had no idea how the war was actually going to pan out when he
           | wrote it. I read it in April last year, one month into the
           | first COVID lockdown. Some of the reactions Wells describes
           | (from fear to to panic buying to concerns about the economy)
           | were exactly what was happening in the pandemic. I found it
           | amazingly relevant even given the massive changes in society
           | over the last century because in many ways basic human nature
           | is just the same now as then.
           | 
           | [0]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Britling_Sees_It_Through
        
             | trutannus wrote:
             | Similar to The Plague by Camus. The progression basically
             | goes:
             | 
             | 1. Everyone ignores it since it's "not serious" 2. People
             | play it down for political reasons 3. People start dying 4.
             | People lock down 5. Alcohol sells out
             | 
             | At least where I am, this is exactly what happened.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Sometimes those old books are fun in a quaint way. Talk about
         | "negros" where you are expected to understand why the person
         | isn't bad per se, but automatically unable to be anything other
         | than a basic servant. We can laugh at it now, yet it was so
         | common and wasn't even mentioned.
         | 
         | And then of course look at ourselves and wonder what the next
         | generation will laugh at.
        
           | CobrastanJorji wrote:
           | I suspect that kind of fun is less fun when they're talking
           | about you, especially when it's still a problem today.
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | But... many movies and TV shows from 30 years are also still
         | immensely enjoyable today. Or heck, from 70 years ago.
         | 
         | Why do you think movies and TV somehow age more than books?
        
       | Forricide wrote:
       | I feel that this article might suffer from being a bit
       | hyperfocused on specifically publishing novels, and therefore
       | ignoring other forms of fiction.
       | 
       | > _The real success story here is N. K. Jemisin who was earning
       | $5,068 /month publishing fiction on Patreon before she received a
       | traditional publishing contract and went that route instead. But
       | she is the only real case study we have._
       | 
       | In particular, this line rings false, considering Wildbow is
       | currently publishing fiction at $6000/month and has been steadily
       | growing for years. Taylor Fitzpatrick[1] is publishing fiction at
       | a per-story rate, which is harder to calculate a strict number
       | for, but could easily be up there. SenescentSoul[2] is making at
       | least $5000/month, but doesn't show the actual number on their
       | patreon. I could go on; although I've read Wildbow's work in the
       | past, I've never heard of the other two, and just found them by
       | searching "writing" on patreon.
       | 
       | Of course, none of these are strictly _writing novels_ : Wildbow
       | is a web serial author; SenescentSoul appears to be the same, and
       | the other is a short story author. This is perhaps why the author
       | (intentionally? unintentionally?) seems to have left such a large
       | area of successful fiction writing out of their article.
       | 
       | However, not mentioning the huge success of self-published
       | LitRPG, romance, web serials, etc. in an article that is centered
       | around positing the question "Could the creator economy work for
       | fiction authors?" seems like a rather large oversight to me. None
       | of these people mentioned are making the prized $10k USD/month
       | that the author holds so highly (although [2] might be), but
       | they're all extremely successful even relative to the world of
       | traditionally published novels, and they're far from the only
       | examples.
       | 
       | I understand that this author is quite focused on novels
       | specifically, but self-published novels from romance/litrpg
       | authors can also be quite successful; this is much harder to find
       | numbers for than patreon-based authors, of course, so this is
       | only an anecdote.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.patreon.com/wildbow [1]
       | https://www.patreon.com/imogenedisease [2]
       | https://www.patreon.com/senescentsoul
        
       | sltkr wrote:
       | > There are thousands of paid fiction authors on Patreon but only
       | 25 earn more than $1,000/month, only six earn more than
       | $2,000/month, and only one earns more than the $5,000/month (and
       | she's already a bestselling author).
       | 
       | I think she missed a few authors in other categories. Examples:
       | - https://www.patreon.com/Wildbow (over $6,000/month)       -
       | https://www.patreon.com/user?u=3814558 ($8,203 per chapter,
       | roughly 1 chapter/month)       -
       | https://www.patreon.com/pirateaba (no dollar amount, but 4,345
       | patrons and a $1/month minimum tier should translate to roughly
       | $8000/month)
       | 
       | etc. None of these are conventionally established authors as far
       | as I can tell.
        
         | chokma wrote:
         | Some more:
         | https://www.patreon.com/user?u=48733767 Casualfarmer 2.8K
         | https://www.patreon.com/Zogarth 10K / month
         | https://www.patreon.com/C_Mantis c.mantis / 4.2 K
         | https://www.patreon.com/SelkieMyth 5.3K
         | https://www.patreon.com/InadvisablyCompelled 2.8K
         | https://www.patreon.com/Shirtaloon 14 K
         | https://www.patreon.com/DefianceNovels 1395 patreons
         | 
         | Some of those are also on Kindle Unlimited & Kindle.
        
         | nicolas_t wrote:
         | Yes, I was wondering where the author got those numbers,
         | There's also https://www.patreon.com/senescentsoul who probably
         | gets more than 5k a month since the minimum tier is $2.5/month
        
         | Aerroon wrote:
         | The author of The Legend of Randidly Ghosthound $5262/month:
         | https://www.patreon.com/puddles4263
         | 
         | The author of Azarinth Healer has 3317 patrons at $2 minimum:
         | https://www.patreon.com/RhaegarRRL
         | 
         | Basically, you can look through RoyalRoad, Scribblehub,
         | WebNovel, and various other places where quite a few people
         | seem to find success. And that's not even mentioning the people
         | who write novels and publish them on Amazon.
         | 
         | > _None of these are conventionally established authors as far
         | as I can tell._
         | 
         | They're not. Or at least were not. They wrote web novels and
         | acquired success because people liked their stories.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | These are amazing! Thank you so much for sharing. I will look
           | into these as case studies.
        
             | CobrastanJorji wrote:
             | There's also the path of the "Kindle Unlimited" after-the-
             | fact self-publisher.
             | 
             | I've seen several times now where an author does this:
             | 
             | 1. Publish their novel serially on a site like Royal Road.
             | Build up a subscriber base, get on the leaderboards, try to
             | grow. 2. Publish it to Kindle Unlimited. Kindle Unlimited
             | requires that no other copies be available online, so
             | remove it all from the original site. 3. Continue writing
             | new content as "book 2" on the original sites to try and
             | stay discoverable and on top of the leaderboards. Hope new
             | readers will read the first few books on Amazon, thereby
             | finally earning some money.
        
             | Aerroon wrote:
             | One more thing to consider is that some (many?) of these
             | authors are from poorer countries. $1500 a month for them
             | might go a lot further.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | These are great, thank you! They didn't show up in the fiction
         | category, but makes sense since they are using other
         | terminology. I'll definitely look into these as case studies!
        
         | PeterisP wrote:
         | Wildbow is amazing. Her "Worm" series is literally 20 full
         | novels sized, and works like this are (or was? read it many
         | years ago) free competition to any would-be writer who would
         | want to require - as the article suggests - $5 per chapter of
         | an unfinished novel. I mean, all these Patreon examples
         | illustrate that it definitely can work, but IMHO it's more
         | accurate to treat it as "patron" sponsorship/charity/support
         | out of goodwill, instead of as actual economic sales of scarce
         | product.
        
         | clarkevans wrote:
         | Ursula Vernon, Author of Harriet the Hamster Princess -
         | https://www.patreon.com/ursulav (1,165 patrons, $2,709/mo)
        
       | stakkur wrote:
       | "98 percent of the books that _publishers_ released "
       | 
       | is the key phrase, and it's nothing new; the sell rate in
       | traditional publishing has always been quite low. But this does
       | _not_ include books sold in all the other self-publishing ways.
        
         | ChrisRR wrote:
         | Is it though? I highly doubt many self published authors are
         | selling over 100k copies. That's a ton of logistics to deal
         | with
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | I'd be skeptical that more than a handful of self-published
         | books sold more than 100K copies (if that).
        
           | stakkur wrote:
           | I don't agree. Self publishing has not only arrived, in some
           | genres it outsells trad pub books.
           | 
           | One discussion: https://mashable.com/article/self-published-
           | authors-making-a...
           | 
           | From that article: _" According to Amazon's 2019 review of
           | its Kindle sales, there are now thousands of self-published
           | authors taking home royalties of over $50,000, while more
           | than a thousand hit six-figure salaries from their book sales
           | last year."_
           | 
           | And 'self publishing' encompasses more than just Amazon, etc.
           | --there are hundreds (maybe thousands) of authors selling
           | books directly online.
        
             | NullInvictus wrote:
             | It wouldn't surprise me. In many genres, I'm not sure there
             | is a huge difference in the product put out by traditional
             | publishers vs. that put out by direct publishing.
             | 
             | I own a lot of books, and a sizable chunk is fiction. Maybe
             | I'm just picking up the best, but it feels like the freely
             | published ones have the same amount of advertising,
             | editing, and type-checking as the traditionally published
             | ones.
             | 
             | Which is to say - absolutely none. It feels like in many
             | cases, traditional publishing has decided to play the same
             | numbers-game as the self-publishers and have given up on
             | adding quality after they receive the manuscript.
             | Ironically this may be why they're receding under the
             | waves. Commodities is a hard place to get rich.
        
       | munificent wrote:
       | _> Not to mention, an author would have to come out with one book
       | a year to maintain that salary._
       | 
       | Your math looks odd to me. You look at the amount a book earns
       | _in a single year_ and extrapolate that to the author 's _annual
       | salary_ , but seem to assume that once the first year is up, the
       | book stops earning. Does books earning passive over multiple
       | years affect the numbers?
       | 
       | For what its worth, my single non-fiction book has generated
       | passive income for about seven years now.
       | 
       | I fully agree with your larger point that earning a living off
       | fiction is exceedingly difficult these days. I hope fiction
       | authors can find new revenue models like you're exploring that
       | are successful. But I fear that fiction will go the way of poetry
       | and theatre where it becomes a niche art beloved by some but
       | rarely lucrative enough to devote yourself full time to it.
        
         | dalai wrote:
         | Agree. My non-fiction, niche book generated some income for
         | almost 10 years even though it was outdated after the first 5
         | or so. I am guessing that in fiction they can earn for a lot
         | longer. There are also other effects to take into
         | consideration: Even a moderate hit will generate interest for
         | previous books; books in a series or in a trilogy will boost
         | each other's sales. Not that getting the moderate hit is easy
         | in any way.
        
         | ska wrote:
         | True - in order to do this analysis properly you need some idea
         | of the distribution of royalties, and publication intervals,
         | etc.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Yes, I am basing that off the research I did for this article:
         | 
         | https://ellegriffin.substack.com/p/publishing-industry-truth
         | 
         | "Most books peak in the first 10 weeks after their debut, then
         | exit the market."
         | 
         | This is "most" so of course there are exceptions. And it sounds
         | like you are one of them. That is amazing! Did it have a big
         | bump at front, and then decrease over time? Or have you seen
         | other bumps later on?
         | 
         | I do wonder if serial content might be better. Because you get
         | a bump every time you have a release, vs. only every three
         | years when you have a whole book release.
         | 
         | Either way, I'm fairly certain that it's like you say, and that
         | fiction will go the way of poetry and become to niche to make a
         | living from it. But I'm going to at least give it a go and see
         | what happens!
        
           | munificent wrote:
           | _> Did it have a big bump at front, and then decrease over
           | time? Or have you seen other bumps later on?_
           | 
           | It had a spike at launch when I announced it on my mailing
           | list and then it tapered. It's held pretty steadily since
           | then. If you're curious, I wrote a thing about the launch
           | here: http://journal.stuffwithstuff.com/2014/11/20/how-my-
           | book-lau...
           | 
           | But it's a technical book on programming, so the whole
           | economic and time model are just totally different compared
           | to fiction. My model was to serially publish it online for
           | free. There's a link to the mailing list at the top of each
           | chapter. When I finished a chapter, I'd put it online and
           | tell people about it. That did a good job of building up the
           | mailing list. Then when the print edition was done, I could
           | use that to tell people about it.
           | 
           | I had absolutely no expectation of this, but somehow having
           | it online for free has been really good for actually selling
           | copies too. I don't know if it's because it raises the book's
           | profile, or because people can try before they buy, or maybe
           | that just feel grateful that they don't _have_ to buy? Either
           | way, it worked out way better than I expected.
           | 
           |  _> I 'm fairly certain that it's like you say, and that
           | fiction will go the way of poetry and become to niche to make
           | a living from it. But I'm going to at least give it a go and
           | see what happens! _
           | 
           | I really hope you're successful. Even if the money is falling
           | out of it, fiction is the best way I know to share insight
           | about the human condition with others. We'd be poorer as a
           | species without it, regardless of what capitalism thinks.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | I think that is largely because most writers don't know how
           | to or don't care about marketing.
           | 
           | I published a novel in late november, and it's sales are low
           | but steady to slowly increasing. A key aspect is that to
           | "survive" past the initial bump you need to invest effort
           | into building word of mouth and getting reviews, and that is
           | a _slow_ process. The people I got to help with marketing
           | even actively advised against doing much marketing before we
           | had a base of reviews, because they apparently find it almost
           | impossible to get positive ROI on Amazon ads until there 's a
           | reasonable number of reviews.
           | 
           | I intentionally started writing a series, and everything I've
           | seen and heard suggests series rarely even start selling
           | decently until at least the 3rd volume, because people hold
           | off to see if it's worth investing time in.
           | 
           | I'd advise against considering what happens to "most" books,
           | because most books gets _no_ marketing, no proper cover
           | design, no effort in writing blurbs, no effort to push the
           | books over time.
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Oh I've heard that. The classic "third book" being the one
             | that goes viral. (Gillian Flynn, Dan Brown, etc.)
             | 
             | I agree with you on considering most books (most books
             | don't market), but even trying to learn from the successful
             | books isn't entirely encouraging. Even the best ones don't
             | see a lot of reads.
             | 
             | But the industry is rapidly changing. We don't all watch
             | the same three television channels anymore. Niche content
             | is more the norm than mass marketed content.
             | 
             | I think the whole "creator economy" is still in its
             | infancy, and we have yet to see whether it will actually
             | allow creators to monetize in a meaningful way. But it's
             | worth engaging with it as an experiment to see what
             | happens!
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | I have on my bookshelf a book written by a personal friend of
           | mine. A fun non-fiction book, but I'm sure he didn't market
           | it.
        
       | jrochkind1 wrote:
       | As someone who reads novels continuously, I find it really
       | depressing that there might not be new novels to read much
       | longer.
        
       | macksd wrote:
       | As others have pointed out, I don't think we have all the right
       | data to really make conclusions, especially in a historical
       | context here. But if the trend is exactly what the title is
       | implying, I wonder if social networks are a contributing factor
       | here and amplifying virality: more of the people who read are
       | sharing / discussing what they're reading, and that's influencing
       | more people to then go and read the same thing. Fewer people
       | going and browsing the entire selection to pick out something
       | they want to read.
       | 
       | I'm reading (well, listening to audiobooks) more than ever, but
       | indeed I'm selecting things that are already significant topics
       | for conversation, or books that were already made into movies
       | (and thus are also popular). Beyond that, I'm consuming podcasts,
       | etc. and things with business models closer to that the author is
       | suggesting.
        
       | ameister14 wrote:
       | She's WAY off with her data, because she's only going classic
       | publishing and ignoring the fact that the 'new and untested'
       | serialization model has many successful practitioners and has for
       | a long time. To get to NK Jemisin's 5k per month on Patreon, she
       | went down past 22 writers on the graphtreon rank.
       | 
       | This part: There are thousands of paid fiction authors on Patreon
       | but only 25 earn more than $1,000/month, only six earn more than
       | $2,000/month, and only one earns more than the $5,000/month (and
       | she's already a bestselling author).
       | 
       | That's just wrong. Pirateaba, Zogarth, Kosnik4, Shirtaloon,
       | Wildbow, SenescentSoul and more make more than $5,000 a month -
       | there are a bunch. There's a model here and it's working.
       | 
       | She didn't have success on Patreon because she didn't use a
       | platform like webnovel, royalroad, her own website or something
       | similar to release the free tier and link to the patreon like
       | everyone successfully using patreon to pay for their writing
       | does.
        
       | eslaught wrote:
       | I've seen this type of analysis show up in a couple places, and I
       | think it usually misses one critical factor:
       | 
       | The vast majority of books frankly suck.
       | 
       | I say this as an aspiring writer and as someone who (as part of
       | that) has critiqued a bunch of books and parts of books. Even
       | published books can be mediocre or bad. And this is even more
       | true now in the days of self-publishing, where there's basically
       | no barrier to pressing "go" before you're ready.
       | 
       | What I see in the central table in the post (a couple paragraphs
       | down from the top) is a power law distribution: at each
       | successive level, roughly 10-30x more titles are able to get
       | there. Sure, some percentage of those successes are due to a pre-
       | existing platform. But how many writers are truly writing at the
       | level of quality of the best-selling authors? I know, for my
       | part, that after doing half a dozen or so major passes on my
       | book, I still get critiqued for a variety of issues, some of
       | which are embarrassingly basic.
       | 
       | Look, I'm not saying writing is a great way to make money if
       | that's your primary goal. But I do think there's more correlation
       | here between quality of writing and sales than most people give
       | credit for. It takes a _lot_ of work to get there, so most people
       | just don 't. But that's not to say that the opportunity doesn't
       | exist.
       | 
       | I do appreciate the thoughts on alternative platforms though.
       | Just because the journey is hard doesn't mean I shouldn't be
       | trying to maximize the money I can make along the way. :-)
        
         | gcatalfamo wrote:
         | I would anecdotally counter argue that brand/audience/community
         | building drives _far_ more sales than the book quality
        
           | eslaught wrote:
           | It's possible that both of these are true.
           | 
           | To be clear, when I say quality, I don't just mean this in
           | the narrow sense of following the rules that writing teachers
           | say you should. _Harry Potter_ and _Twilight_ both became
           | popular because of some essence that they had---in my
           | opinion, probably related to the world building and a certain
           | difficult-to-describe experience of reading. Both of those
           | books had  "flaws" that were widely criticized. But they
           | really hit home with their respective audiences.
           | 
           | Why did the first _Harry Potter_ succeed, before J.K. Rowling
           | had made a name for herself? In my opinion, it 's because
           | readers loved it so much that they went out and told their
           | friends to read it. _That 's_ what I'm talking about when I
           | mean quality---the irresistible quality that makes me fall in
           | love with everything the author is doing.
           | 
           | Most books I see, even traditionally published ones, just
           | don't have that.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | Agree.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | It's interesting because reading is so subjective. I think I've
         | only ever liked a "best selling" book once or twice, because I
         | like things that are severely strange and that is not to
         | commercial tastes. So it's hard to judge "quality"
         | collectively. It's hard enough to judge "quality" individually!
        
       | m1117 wrote:
       | Yeah, writing a book is something that you not only do for the
       | money, but because you love it.
        
       | mikerg87 wrote:
       | Any idea if there is a similar source of sales figures for non-
       | fiction/technical ? Is it as bleak or skewed as the fiction side
       | ?
        
         | o_nate wrote:
         | There were more than twice as many adult nonfiction books than
         | adult fiction books sold in both 2019 and 2020 in the US,
         | according to Publishers Weekly.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | These stats are total book titles. Not just fiction. So non-
         | fiction is somewhere in there!
        
       | Aditya_Garg wrote:
       | This is expected and falls under the Pareto distribution. All
       | human creative endeavors follow this distribution (movies/ tv
       | shows/ music) at different scales. Even some weird ones like most
       | commonly used words follow this. Jordan Peterson has an excellent
       | lecture on describing this phenomenon.
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcEWRykSgwE
        
       | ben_w wrote:
       | That's more than I was expecting given the 98% selling less than
       | 5000 referenced in the opening paragraph.
       | 
       | But then again, that 2.6 million books were sold is also more
       | than I expected.
        
         | nullandvoid wrote:
         | 2.6 million would mean 1 in 3000 people on earth, bought at
         | least 1 book in the last year. That doesn't seem very
         | surprising to me?
         | 
         | Although I think you meant to write 27 million (268 * 100k)
         | 
         | edit - ignore, I missed that it was 2.6m unique in the article
        
           | rmah wrote:
           | I think the 2.6 mil refers to the # of titles available for
           | sale, not the number of copies sold.
        
             | nullandvoid wrote:
             | Oops I skimmed the article and missed that - thanks.
        
           | contravariant wrote:
           | Somehow I get the feeling that people are dropping qualifiers
           | left and right. For instance the 2.6 million is books sold
           | _online_. And more importantly I strongly suspect someone
           | somewhere failed to mention this was all U.S. only. At least
           | I suspect it is.
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | The data is also quite sparse and almost certainly missing a
           | large chunk of the worlds population. Looking at their
           | website, I doubt they're covering the Chinese domestic
           | market. I'd also be surprised if they're covering say
           | Bangladesh, or Indian non-English books or content. Same with
           | Indonesia.
           | 
           | That right there would probably throw all the numbers off
           | dramatically world population wise.
        
         | phillc73 wrote:
         | I was surprised by how low the reported total number of books
         | is. Then I realised they're only reporting online book sales.
         | However, the number still seems quite low.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | Yes, it's only online book sales. NPD book wouldn't give me
           | numbers on print sales. Though I learned in a previous
           | article that print sales tend to be less than online sales.
        
             | phillc73 wrote:
             | I see now from up thread, this is 2.6 million individual
             | titles, not actual book sales. To me, this still seems low.
             | Unfortunately, the bookstat website linked in the article
             | won't load for me, but I wonder if that is only the total
             | number of English language titles (sold online).
        
       | goopthink wrote:
       | Specifically for technical books, reaching a niche audience is
       | perfectly fine and these things tend to grow an audience over
       | time as they become reference material.
       | 
       | Perhaps more importantly, writing a technical book is
       | professionally akin to doing a PhD: you show a depth of subject
       | matter knowledge and ability to sustain a long form project.
        
       | kingsuper20 wrote:
       | One thing that has bound to affect new book sales, especially on
       | the tail, is the increasing ease of buying used books online.
       | It's kind of like the way that eBay altered the music store
       | instrument business.
       | 
       | Pirated e-books probably have chiseled away some of the business.
       | 
       | Having said that, the book business looks to have been in a slow
       | decline for some time. I don't doubt that social media and
       | internet reading generally have made people less able to read
       | long-form work. I'd add that it looks like authors have been
       | falling down a slide of lessening language complexity over the
       | decades.
        
         | GekkePrutser wrote:
         | > Pirated e-books probably have chiseled away some of the
         | business.
         | 
         | Not just that but also licensing.
         | 
         | I live in Europe and it happens a LOT that I can't get a book I
         | want here. Either it's not yet released because it's released
         | in phases. I read English only, however publishers tend to wait
         | to release the English version until the local translation is
         | out, so they don't lose potential sales of the translated
         | version.
         | 
         | Also, some books are simply not sold here for some reason. It
         | happens so often that I go through the Kindle app and then end
         | up with the "This item is not available in your region"
         | message.
         | 
         | At that point I go the easy way. I could get a US prepaid card
         | and use a VPN or whatever but I'm not going to go out of my way
         | to throw money at them. If they don't want to take my money,
         | then they won't get it. I know I'm hurting the authors more
         | than the publishers but I'm just not going to wait for it to
         | become available here.
        
           | failwhaleshark wrote:
           | If you can't get a book legally or conveniently, there isn't
           | really any sales to be "lost" because you wouldn't buy it.
           | There is no real injury if you can't acquire something
           | otherwise. You're not stealing a book from a store to cause a
           | loss.
           | 
           | So, it's either do without or find a way to get it. And then,
           | you might make an extra effort to acquire it if it's really
           | good and encourage others to find it too. Not as a
           | rationalization but as a human habit: pirating some content,
           | within reason, leads to increased sales overall rather than a
           | decrease.
        
         | Mediterraneo10 wrote:
         | Pirated ebooks have definitely chiselled away at the business.
         | I haven't paid for a work of fiction in nearly a decade thanks
         | to ebook-sharing communities. Just 2-3 years ago LibGen was
         | something known only to a niche of torrentfreaks, but it seems
         | like suddenly all of my bookish friends know about it and use
         | it.
         | 
         | (The exception is when I like a classic work of literature
         | enough to want to buy a hardback copy that will last the
         | decades. But that almost always means buying on the used
         | market, because older hardbacks had quality sewn bindings,
         | while hardbacks today are likely to have flimsy glued bindings.
         | So, thanks to publishers skimping on quality, the author gets
         | no remuneration even when a reader of the ebook decides to
         | purchase the physical artifact.)
        
           | kingsuper20 wrote:
           | I agree with everything you've said here. I haven't bought a
           | paperback for years (decades?).
           | 
           | Now that I think of it, practically every book I have any
           | interest in is OOP or there is a nicer version of it
           | available from some time ago.
           | 
           | In terms of ebooks, it'll be interesting to see if we
           | continue to live in an increasing land o' plenty in terms of
           | copyright violation (also including music and video) or if
           | the hammer will come down on that. It's easy to imagine a
           | legion of paratroopers outfitted in Disney uniforms doing a
           | bit of digital axing on servers throughout the world.
           | 
           | One implication might be that this is the time to become a
           | data hoarder.
        
       | MisterBastahrd wrote:
       | How many of these were politically oriented and had sales
       | bolstered by political organizations to get them on a best
       | seller's list?
        
         | kingsuper20 wrote:
         | Good point. More than a few I would wager. It's also a way to
         | pay a politician in a backdoor way.
         | 
         | Having said that, I'm amazed that so many of those titles are
         | actually bought, they do appear to be at least somewhat
         | popular. Any thrift store has piles of Presidential biographies
         | and outraged-about-a-President books, they're over by the
         | microwave cookbooks.
        
           | MisterBastahrd wrote:
           | Yeah, for example, the Republican National Committee spent
           | over $300K on Donald Trump Jr.'s book, which it then turned
           | around and gave to donors, and $100K more on one of his other
           | books. It spent over $400K on Dan Crenshaw's book and almost
           | $100K on Tom Cotton's book. When Herman Cain was running for
           | President, his campaign committee bought up pallets of his
           | book that happened to be on sale at the same time as his
           | political candidacy. The RNC also spent over $100K on a Sean
           | Hannity book. The DNC spent nearly $100K on Chelsea Clinton's
           | book.
           | 
           | The FEC is apparently on board with all of this, as long as
           | the candidate isn't... using the books their campaigns
           | purchase for their personal use. I guess the next time Ted
           | Cruz gets shamed into staying home during an ice storm, he'll
           | be disappointed to know that he can't burn his own books for
           | warmth.
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | So the ex-mayor of Baltimore should have had the Maryland
             | Democratic Party buy her children's books instead?
        
             | kingsuper20 wrote:
             | There's probably a book in this history of books as payoff,
             | from Grant's memoirs on up.
             | 
             | There is some value to these ridiculous autobiographies
             | (not so much for the I-hate-the-President-books). In 100
             | years, some future historian can draw from 'The Art of the
             | Deal', 'Dreams From My Father', and probably some biography
             | of Millard Fillmore to reach a conclusion. In the long run,
             | they are all non-entities.
        
       | kbenson wrote:
       | > But could fiction do the same? That is a yet unanswered
       | question. There are a few serial fiction writers on Substack--but
       | none are paid. There are thousands of paid fiction authors on
       | Patreon but only 25 earn more than $1,000/month, only six earn
       | more than $2,000/month, and only one earns more than the
       | $5,000/month (and she's already a bestselling author).
       | 
       | I think those statistics are extremely suspect. I subscribe to a
       | few fiction authors on Patreon, and there's a few I did subscibe
       | to but don't any more. I know of at least 4-5 fiction authors
       | making a lot of money, like $10k+/mo ($15k+/mo in some cases)
       | writing fairly niche content (litrpg and/or xianxia type work).
       | 
       | Then, when they get enough chapters for the current long-running
       | fiction together, they bunfle it into a book and release on
       | Kindle Unlimited, as an _additional_ source of income.
       | 
       | Here's some examples:
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/senescentsoul - 2163 patrons as of now,
       | minimum tier is $2.50/mo, but I suspect most people are paying $5
       | since that gives access to all advance chapters and not just
       | some, and you can read delayed chapters on royalroad.com. So,
       | probably somewhere between $4k and $8k a month, and this is their
       | side hustle while in college I think.
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/DefianceNovels - 1393 Patrons. There is
       | a $1/mo option, but various tiers from $3/mo to $10/mo give you
       | up to 50 advance chapters from where it's publishes for free on
       | royalroad.com.
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/jdfister - Page says they are making
       | $4,116/mo from 517 patrons, similar situation as above with
       | royalroad.com and advance chapters, as a point towards how much
       | to expect the above people are making.
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/Zogarth - $12,753/mo from 1,886
       | subsribers. Same situation as above with free publishing on
       | royalroad.com and advance chapters.
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/RhaegarRRL - 3,317 patrons, my guess is
       | they are making well above $5k/mo.
       | 
       | - https://www.patreon.com/Shirtaloon - $17,297 from 2,403
       | patrons. Similar as above. Books showing up on Kindle Unlimited.
       | 
       | These are just some people I actually read or read at some point
       | in the past for a while, not a bunch I searched out that includes
       | the top people. This is an answered question, IMO. If random web
       | serials I'm reading are making this much money, I suspect there's
       | a large amount of people making money this way.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Thank you so much! These are excellent case studies. Will look
         | into all of these.
        
       | GekkePrutser wrote:
       | > As the going wisdom states: it only takes 1,000 true fans
       | spending $100/year for a creator to earn a salary of
       | $100,000/year--and there are 83,397 books every year that have at
       | least 1,000 true fans. Theoretically then, an author could
       | release a new chapter every week, charge subscribers $8 or $9 a
       | month, and earn $100,000 a year--from only 1,000 readers.
       | 
       | She's basically proposing an episodic model for books, with each
       | chapter being released individually.
       | 
       | I don't think this'll work. Authors tend to have phases of
       | inspiration, and lulls in between. The pressure of the next
       | episode would lead to 'phoned in' chapters. Or long delays.
       | Episodic gaming was a big hype in the game industry for a while
       | but it suffered really heavily from these issues and it's now
       | pretty much defunct. A few companies like telltale made it work
       | but even telltale is now out of business. The 'early access'
       | model was also tried there but is failing for similar reasons:
       | There is no incentive to ever finishing a game, in fact the
       | incentive is to never finish it.
       | 
       | It also means you'd be spending $100 on a single book. In this
       | model you pay $8-$9 a chapter, normally this is the price you'd
       | pay for an entire book. I also wouldn't want to wait for the next
       | chapter every time. I don't see this working out at all.
       | 
       | I don't know what the answer is. But I don't think this is it.
       | 
       | Edit: As many people have pointed out this model has been around
       | much longer, even before the internet... I didn't know that and
       | thanks for pointing it out! I still don't think it will work for
       | me as a reader though. I view a book as a unit, and having
       | reading sprints of a few hours per month will dilute the story
       | for me.
        
         | TigeriusKirk wrote:
         | Amazon is launching a new serialized book program called Vella.
         | 
         | It seems sort of overly complicated to me in that Amazon will
         | sell "tokens" to readers in batches with discounts for volume.
         | The tokens can then be spent on episodes on Vella at the rate
         | of 1 token per 100 words in the episode.
         | 
         | Apparently this is a thing they're copying from elsewhere, and
         | it's supposedly huge in China.
         | 
         | https://kdp.amazon.com/en_US/help/topic/GR2L4AHPMQ44HNQ7
        
         | edu wrote:
         | Sherlock Holmes started with this model (being published in The
         | Strand Magazine with other stories and articles) and it's still
         | used for manga. It's a little bit different as they were not
         | single-author, but I don't see why it couldn't work again.
        
         | lightveil wrote:
         | This is almost exactly what a subgenre called LitRPG does. The
         | authors usually run a Patreon where patrons can read chapters
         | in advance. If you look at this [0], there are 4345 patrons and
         | the lowest tier is $1.00, giving a lower bound of $52k per
         | year. Although it's likely to be far more higher than that, if
         | you look at the patron->dollars ratio here [1]. In general, the
         | model seems to function very well in some specific scenarios.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.patreon.com/pirateaba
         | 
         | [1] https://www.patreon.com/Zogarth
        
         | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
         | > Authors tend to have phases of inspiration, and lulls in
         | between.
         | 
         | Getting inspired is a part of a job. Here's an example:
         | 
         | "Someone once asked Mr. Faulkner if he wrote by inspiration or
         | habit and he said he wrote by inspiration, but luckily
         | inspiration arrived at 9 every morning."
        
         | mattkevan wrote:
         | Martha Wells does this with her Murderbot Diaries books [1].
         | 
         | The series is fantastic and the latest book was great, but PS8
         | for something that I finished in less than an hour felt a bit
         | steep. Especially for an ebook with literally 0 marginal cost.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.amazon.co.uk/Martha-
         | Wells/e/B000APZA1O?ref=sr_nt...
        
           | wccrawford wrote:
           | I'm sure it took me more than an hour to read that book, but
           | I really enjoy that series so it was well worth the price to
           | me. It's definitely a short book (novella?) but I get almost
           | as much out of it as I do longer books.
           | 
           | And if the larger books are artificially padded, I actually
           | enjoy them less.
        
         | DataGata wrote:
         | Serialized fiction is basically how many many classics came to
         | us. Today, lots of online fiction, like Andy Weir's The Martian
         | or Scott Alexander's Unsong, starts out as serialized fiction
         | that comes out in sections. The episodic model for books isn't
         | novel.
        
         | Aaargh20318 wrote:
         | > I don't think this'll work. Authors tend to have phases of
         | inspiration, and lulls in between. The pressure of the next
         | episode would lead to 'phoned in' chapters.
         | 
         | Not just from the author's side. From a reader's perspective
         | this would also not work. I don't want to start reading a book
         | a chapter at a time. I don't even like reading books that are
         | part of an unfinished series.
         | 
         | For me, as someone who reads quite a lot of books, there is
         | nothing more satisfying than finding a new series that you are
         | interested in and discovering the entire series is already
         | finished. You can then just binge through the whole thing.
         | 
         | The worst is when a series is 5-6 books in, you binge through
         | them in a couple of days and when the next part is released you
         | can't be bothered because you have forgotten what it was about.
         | 
         | I wish authors would take the Netflix approach and just finish
         | the entire series before releasing it.
        
           | klelatti wrote:
           | The effort of picking a story up again is a fair argument
           | against. There are some genres (crime fiction) where I think
           | that the anticipation of waiting for a chapter could
           | genuinely add to the experience.
        
           | GekkePrutser wrote:
           | Yes exactly, I don't like this at all either.. I know I will
           | get less absorbed in the story if I have to wait a month in
           | between each chapter and in the end I'll just give up.
        
             | Aerroon wrote:
             | What if you start a story that already has 400 chapters out
             | and you get a new chapter every week? Because that's the
             | kind of numbers you can run into.
             | 
             | At that many chapters it's like you're reading multiple
             | books.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | There are enough books where the first few were good, but the
           | final was terrible that I'm not sure I agree. I've learned to
           | be happy with never having finished some series because they
           | started great but by the middle weren't worth finding out how
           | it finished.
        
         | klelatti wrote:
         | I don't think it's completely impossible:
         | 
         | - I've paid $50 for an e-book with content that I thought was
         | really valuable (and it was worth every penny).
         | 
         | - In the 2020s the book could be accompanied by supporting
         | material (webcasts etc) which would increase the perceived
         | value.
         | 
         | - Some people would be prepared to pay more for early access
         | and to support an author they really like.
         | 
         | I think that part of it is a change in focus of the book's
         | content: rather than being accessible to as wide a range of
         | readers as possible make it really valuable to a subset.
         | 
         | Frankly too many (non fiction) books are essays spun out to
         | book length. A series of chapters with more dense content would
         | be, in my view, be much more valuable (counting the cost of my
         | time).
         | 
         | And of course as others have noted that many great books have
         | been published as serials (albeit in magazines and newspapers).
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | >Frankly too many (non fiction) books are essays spun out to
           | book length.
           | 
           | I think by the time you took your scalpel to a typical
           | business book, you might be left with 50-100 pages. The core
           | idea is probably a magazine article but there are usually
           | useful examples, context, etc.
           | 
           | The problem is that publishing industry economics demand
           | something more like 250 to 300 pages (and truth be told a lot
           | of readers would feel a bit ripped off if they paid a typical
           | book price for a 75 page book).
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | I've been told that business books are 7 pages of content,
             | and 242 pages of story so to get people to read the content
             | pages.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Well, and to convince you that the content pages aren't
               | some made up BS as supported by real customer
               | experiences, academic research, etc. I could probably
               | summarize a lot of business books (e.g. Crossing the
               | Chasm) in a few pages with a couple drawings. But it
               | would be missing a lot of nuance and, yes, would probably
               | lack the story to make it stick.
        
               | klelatti wrote:
               | There is actually an 18 page summary of Crossing the
               | Chasm in my local Amazon store - it gets 2 star ratings.
               | 
               | I think that there are some potentially conflicting
               | forces:
               | 
               | - a short exposition is probably better for the reader
               | 
               | - less than 200 pages is seen as poor value for money
               | 
               | - people generally expect to read from start to finish
               | 
               | For me I'd much prefer books which fail the read from
               | start to finish test but have clearly signposted sections
               | that I can choose to read and sample from.
        
         | pochamago wrote:
         | Web novels seem to do just fine releasing chapter by chapter in
         | Korea and Japan.
        
         | wfleming wrote:
         | Serialized novels used to be common, though. Many of Dickens's
         | novels were famously serialized weekly. Alexandre Dumas' famous
         | novels The Count of Monte Cristo and The Three Musketeers were
         | also published as serials. There are plenty of other examples.
         | More recently, apparently In Cold Blood and Bonfire Of The
         | Vanities were both initially published as serials.
         | 
         | Even today, comic books are effectively serialized narrative
         | stories that are pretty reliably published on schedule and have
         | writers who have to keep up for months at a time.
         | 
         | > Authors tend to have phases of inspiration, and lulls in
         | between.
         | 
         | Different writers have different approaches to work. Some
         | writers work in highly productive sprints with long fallow
         | periods, and you're right this model probably wouldn't work
         | well for them. But some novelists do work steadily (Stephen
         | King I believe still tries to write for a couple hours every
         | single day and only takes relatively short breaks between
         | novels), and the fact that this model used to work for a number
         | of books that are now considered classics seems to indicate it
         | can still work in at least some cases.
         | 
         | I'd actually be more worried about the consumer side - the
         | death of magazines makes this model tougher. A given author can
         | reliably produce a novel over the course of a year or two,
         | perhaps, but probably not indefinitely (comic books solve this
         | problem by having writing teams do arcs and then swap out the
         | writer). Magazines used to bundle multiple authors, so
         | subscribers weren't affected by the break period of a single
         | author. In a world where people subscribe to individual authors
         | on Substack and there's no bundling of many authors writing,
         | yeah, it's a tougher sell.
        
         | slothtrop wrote:
         | Some authors seem to chop up their novels into 3 or more
         | novellas. Vandermeer's Southern Reach was all released around
         | the same time and could have been one book from the outset. He
         | would probably deny it, but w/e. Can't say I blame authors.
         | 
         | Word is that people on average don't read more or less than in
         | the past. If that's true I wonder what's responsible for
         | disparity. Are there more authors than before?
        
         | abdullahkhalids wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serial_(literature)
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dickens
         | 
         | > His novels, most of them published in monthly or weekly
         | instalments, pioneered the serial publication of narrative
         | fiction, which became the dominant Victorian mode for novel
         | publication.[4][5] Cliffhanger endings in his serial
         | publications kept readers in suspense.[6] The instalment format
         | allowed Dickens to evaluate his audience's reaction, and he
         | often modified his plot and character development based on such
         | feedback.[5] For example, when his wife's chiropodist expressed
         | distress at the way Miss Mowcher in David Copperfield seemed to
         | reflect her disabilities, Dickens improved the character with
         | positive features.[7] His plots were carefully constructed and
         | he often wove elements from topical events into his
         | narratives.[8] Masses of the illiterate poor would individually
         | pay a halfpenny to have each new monthly episode read to them,
         | opening up and inspiring a new class of readers.
        
           | FalconSensei wrote:
           | Weekly instalments worked at that time and, while it would
           | still work today to some degree, I see a lot of change in
           | direction to binge-ing shows and books.
           | 
           | With that being said, in Japan web-novels are quite common
           | among teenagers - which later on might get a publishing deal
           | to get a print version. BUT, the authors are not
           | professionals and write as a hobby, and making money with
           | their stories happens when they get the print deal, and not
           | publishing online.
        
             | Aerroon wrote:
             | It works in China, but there the authors get paid by word
             | count. And yes, it does lead to exactly the types of
             | problems you can imagine. But there are so many of these
             | stories that some end up being very engaging.
             | 
             | Also, sites like Royalroad and Scribblehub have a fair few
             | authors who make a significant amount of money through
             | Patreon and the like.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | It was the dollar figures that didn't make sense to me. Sure,
         | if you can sell your fiction book for $100 on an installment
         | plan, that brings in a lot more money per fan than a $10 book
         | sold in one shot does. But those two scenarios seem rather
         | different not so much because one is episodic but because one
         | is getting 10x the dollars for the same final product.
        
         | Saturdays wrote:
         | I think most readers would scoff at those price points,
         | especially when comparing to the plethora of content available
         | from streaming services such as Netflix, which is at $8-9/month
         | for individual use.
         | 
         | That being said, is there a model for a group of
         | authors/publishers that is $8-9/month for a growing large
         | selection novels (a la Netflix catalog)? If there is, it
         | probably won't 'solve' any of the issues the article and others
         | are bringing up here.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Yes, I think there's a strong possibility this might wind up
         | being the case. My idea is only a working hypothesis as I try
         | to figure out a model that will work for the fiction author and
         | right now I'm banking on the idea that it USED to work (and
         | that Substack CURRENTLY works). But I am definitely open to
         | ideas if there is another one that might work better!
        
       | scottrogowski wrote:
       | This is a manifestation of the general rule, "don't do things
       | that scale" - at least if you're not the absolute best in the
       | world at what you do.
       | 
       | Whenever something has high fixed and low marginal costs, this
       | sort of winner-take-all distribution results. It's the exact same
       | for indiegames, smartphone apps, or digital music.
        
       | obviouslynotme wrote:
       | Computers and the Internet have democratized culture in a way
       | never seen before. This is both good and bad. Newspapers are
       | dying. Television is dying. Hollywood is dying. Books are dying.
       | Now we have people co-creating on blogs, YouTube, self-
       | publishing, and fan-fiction websites. The production quality is
       | certainly down from the peak of professional culture, but
       | software tools are helping individual creators gain an edge.
       | 
       | The consumer is absolutely winning right now. There is a lifetime
       | of free diverse content just a click away. Traditional publishing
       | and distribution cannot compete with that. The era when you could
       | win a short story award and receive a decent advance on a novel
       | to support yourself is going away, if not gone already.
       | 
       | The future model for all upcoming artists is going to be pushing
       | out content for free for years while building up a fan base until
       | your advertising and Patreon can sustain you.
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | > The consumer is absolutely winning right now. There is a
         | lifetime of free diverse content just a click away.
         | 
         | Theoretically the consumer should be winning. But the glut of
         | content (TV shows, new bands) and the supplementary marketing
         | for that content (blog posts, tweets, IG, newspaper articles)
         | makes it very difficult to actually locate the content itself.
         | 
         | "One click away" suggests that I should be able to acquire it
         | at any store. But that is not true either. Some things are
         | exclusive to a streaming network or store (Apple Music/Amazon).
         | 
         | There's a discoverability problem here, as well as friction
         | when it comes to acquiring the product itself.
        
         | marcus_holmes wrote:
         | I can see this going round in another circle.
         | 
         | The key skill for creatives (in any medium) will be marketing.
         | Being good at the thing you do is table-stakes. Being good at
         | marketing to create the audience will be the key divider
         | between profitable artist/musician/writer/etc and aspiring
         | amateur.
         | 
         | So there's an opportunity for a good marketer to find a great
         | creative (or vice versa) and strike a deal that allows the
         | creative to focus on creating.
         | 
         | This is basically what publishing houses & record labels do,
         | but they're still so caught up in the actual physical
         | production of stuff. Now everything is digital there's no
         | actual need to make books or records.
         | 
         | There'll be a new set of "promoters" who handle the hottest new
         | talent. Getting signed with one of them is the guarantee that
         | you've "made it" and you might actually be able to make a
         | living from this.
         | 
         | Then the promoters will be publishing their own collections of
         | stuff, or creating their own subscription services, or finding
         | some other way of cross-promoting their creatives to the
         | audience of the other creatives they manage. Then it becomes a
         | matter of choosing which promoter(s) you want to follow.
         | 
         | And then we're back to where we were, with gatekeepers for
         | content.
        
           | meowkit wrote:
           | If instagram is a model, then its already started. My feed is
           | basically just guitars/bass/drums and motorcycles. There are
           | these instagram pages who "promote" other pages who pay them.
           | Once the creator is large enough they can decouple and let
           | the feed algorithm work.
           | 
           | Same goes for meme pages, actual models/actors. My guess is
           | this is nascent stage before it really becomes a dominant
           | force for filtering/promoting content.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | I fully agree. In fact, I think (hope) that most of the
           | writers who are selling only hundreds of copies of their
           | books are actually just bad marketers. I think this is why
           | the myth of the Big Four publishing house exists, because
           | those publishing houses used to come in and scoop the writer
           | out of obscurity by marketing their book. Now they look for a
           | writer who already has a big platform so they don't have to
           | spend the marketing budget and can wind up with a "sure
           | thing."
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | >So there's an opportunity for a good marketer to find a
           | great creative (or vice versa) and strike a deal that allows
           | the creative to focus on creating.
           | 
           | Well, that's basically what you hire a public relations
           | person for. The problem is that now you're having to _invest_
           | , perhaps significantly, in making a bigger impact.
        
         | KittenInABox wrote:
         | The scariest part about the latter model is how the hell are we
         | going to find any more Susanna Clarkes, J. D. Salingers, and
         | any other author that doesn't want to or isn't able to buy into
         | the parasocial nature of patreon and similar platforms? What if
         | the author isn't hot, charismatic, or pleasant to listen to?
        
           | gpm wrote:
           | I don't look at Patreons that often, but if I think about the
           | dozen or so that I have (maybe half of authors) none of them
           | have had pictures of themselves on it, or audio recordings of
           | themselves.
           | 
           | So, I mean, it takes being somewhat charismatic in writing,
           | but of the other properties you list... I don't seem them as
           | important at all. Moreover, being charismatic in writing
           | seems to be practically a requirement for being a good
           | author.
           | 
           | Nor is it like the previous model did not have biases, you
           | needed to be good at selling yourself to publishing houses
           | and the like instead of to readers directly, but you still
           | needed to be good at selling yourself.
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | I used to be that way. I created social media accounts this
           | year (and started writing this newsletter) because I realized
           | it was the only way to get my work read. There are so many
           | amazing books out there that only ever see a couple readers
           | because they don't market. It's just a hard reality (unless
           | readers decide to go all indie and hunt for obscure books on
           | the internet, like I do. But I'm sure I'm in the minority).
        
       | localhost wrote:
       | I was curious about the oft cited quote "x% of Americans never
       | read another book after high school" and I found this interesting
       | StackExchange post with links to older studies by the National
       | Endowment of the Arts [1]. It shows that reading rate has droped
       | 16.5% from 1982-2002 for high school graduates from 54.2% to
       | 37.7%. The trend is higher education::more reading, but it is
       | dropping across the board.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/9446/do-33-of-h...
        
       | analog31 wrote:
       | I'm a musician. Good luck with the creator economy. As they say
       | in music, don't quit your day job.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Ha! I definitely won't...
        
       | vidarh wrote:
       | A large part of this is that writing a book is easy.
       | 
       | Writing a _good_ book is hard.
       | 
       | Writing a _good_ book and getting it packaged well is _harder_.
       | 
       | Writing a _good_ book and getting it packaged well _and_ marketed
       | well is _really high_ effort.
       | 
       | I've published a novel. It's part of a series (#2 is being proof-
       | read; link in my profile). Of the time I've spent on this
       | project, writing is the smallest. I've found I can churn out ~20k
       | words a week if I put my mind to it, so a 60k-80k novel is doable
       | in a month. But then it needs to go through an editor (and you
       | need to spend money on a decent one), and a proofreader, and a
       | cover designer (no, unless you're an artist with some design
       | flair your self-designed cover will rarely cut it for fiction),
       | and then you need to market it, including putting in high effort
       | into getting people to review it (but caution: soliciting reviews
       | is a minefield - Amazon does allow you to offer a free copy, but
       | you must be careful not to influence the reviews).
       | 
       | All that, and you still will very likely not sell very much at
       | first (irrespective of quality; and of course part of the
       | challenge with self-publishing is that there's a lot of self-
       | delusion about writing quality going on). Charlie Stross
       | mentioned on Twitter a while back that it took many years (10?)
       | before he made more than 5k/year from his writing. That was with
       | building up a back catalog.
       | 
       | So if you want to write for money, you need to decide whether you
       | see this as buying a lottery ticket (write and submit to
       | traditional publishers and hope you have the next Harry Potter
       | etc.), or if you're ok with being paid per word (submit queries
       | to magazines).
       | 
       | Or if you want the long, hard slog to build up a back catalogue
       | and fan base. People do manage to build serious income streams
       | that way even with small sales per book, but it takes time and a
       | focus on writing fast and churning out as many books as you can.
       | My favourite example is Kjell Hallbing, who under the pseudonym
       | Louis Masterson wrote 100+ western pulp books - the most well
       | known is Morgan Kane (the books were released from the 60's
       | onwards; warning: the originals are very pulpy and dated to start
       | with, but the recent English translations are apparently
       | particularly bad).
       | 
       | He sold ~20 million plus during his lifetime - an astonishing
       | number for a Norwegian author (given the Norwegian market is only
       | 5m).
       | 
       | The key was the number of books, and getting translated to 20+
       | languages, and _time_. On average _each book_ only sold about 10k
       | per language - some more, some less, of course - over a period of
       | decades. But write enough and sell it over many enough years in
       | many enough markets that are not as saturated, and it adds up.
       | 
       | (Or maybe you don't really care about the money, in which case
       | you can do exactly as you please.)
       | 
       | For my part, the writing is a hobby. If it starts to accumulate
       | income over time, then it'll be a great bonus. I'm writing
       | pulp-y, short sci-fi novels in part because I like reading that,
       | in part because it's easy to write as a part-time/hobby project
       | compared to some 250k word monstrous volume.
       | 
       | The TL;DR is that writing a book is a really great idea _if you
       | like writing_ , but if you do it because you want to make money,
       | you need to realise from the start that the writing will be a
       | relatively small part (doubly so if you're planning to self-
       | publish), and that short of figuratively winning the lottery
       | you'll need to write a lot of a long period of time for it to
       | start paying off. If you want a get-rich-quick scheme, writing
       | books is probably a bad idea.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Agreed.
        
       | secondcoming wrote:
       | This seems to contradict this guy [0]
       | 
       | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27108326
        
       | Sebb767 wrote:
       | > Even on the high end, there were only 11 books that sold more
       | than 500,000 copies--which is paltry when you consider that the
       | 10 best-performing Netflix films saw more than 68 million views.
       | 
       | Reading a book takes far longer than watching a movie. Assuming
       | ten hours for a book, that's 5 million "read hours" compared to
       | 102 million "watch hours" (assuming 90 min) for the top movies.
       | Plus, movies can be watched in the background or socially in a
       | group. I'm not saying reading is not a niche - it probably is far
       | smaller than it used to be -, but it's not as niche as this
       | statement makes it out to be.
        
       | aj7 wrote:
       | This neglects the effect that writing things down has on the
       | other media.
        
       | offtop5 wrote:
       | I've actually seen a boon in interactive fiction.
       | 
       | Maybe authors can pivot to that. But I fear with the very low
       | barrier to entry, most creatives won't be making money.
        
         | selimthegrim wrote:
         | What boon do you see in it?
        
       | troelsSteegin wrote:
       | "The one where writing books is not really a good idea". Griffin
       | cites 1000 true fans [0], where for $100k target income, you want
       | 1K fans at $10 month. For me the consumer, that's $100/year per
       | author, times I don't know how many subscriptions I'd budget.
       | It's weird to think that the creative marketplace runs on
       | patronage, but I suppose that's true going back at least to the
       | Renaissance. She's opting to serialize her fiction on substack,
       | toward the possibility of greater scale at lower unit cost.
       | 
       | [0] https://kk.org/thetechnium/1000-true-fans/
        
       | peterarmstrong wrote:
       | One thing to consider is royalty rate. If you sell 5000 copies
       | for $20 and earn a dollar per copy, you've earned $5,000. (This
       | math is based on 10% royalties on the publisher's portion, which
       | is about half of retail. And no, fiction books don't sell for $20
       | typically, but I'm using this number to make the math easy.)
       | 
       | Now, if you sell 5000 copies of an ebook for $20 and earn 80%
       | royalties, you earn $16 per copy, and earn $80,000. This is the
       | royalty rate on Leanpub (disclosure: cofounder), but with Gumroad
       | or blog + Stripe approaches you'd earn an even better percentage
       | (if you want to run your own store).
       | 
       | For fiction, however, the dream combination is probably
       | publishing in-progress with subscriptions. Currently it seems
       | that Substack is the best for that. If you can get a few thousand
       | people to subscribe for a few bucks a month, you could do well.
       | The people at the top are doing really, really well:
       | https://stratechery.com/2021/sovereign-writers-and-substack/
        
         | u678u wrote:
         | This model assumes the publisher does nothing. At least if you
         | buy a OReilly or Wiley book you know it will be a decent
         | standard. Many ebooks are junk and its not always obvious which
         | ones.
        
           | sdgasg wrote:
           | Yup, having been burnt by a few bad e-book purchases (both,
           | fiction and non-fiction), now I stick with big name
           | publishers. Unless books are recommended by trusted Twitter
           | or hn accounts.
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | totally. I basically do blog + stripe, selling 1.5k copies with
         | an ASP of $90, and I keep 97% of it. it was a pretty productive
         | use of 2 months (altho i do spend about 2-3 hours a week
         | continuing to market it and to serve the book community)
         | 
         | would have loved to use leanpub but it had issues, as already
         | reported to leanpub support :)
        
         | kbenson wrote:
         | > For fiction, however, the dream combination is probably
         | publishing in-progress with subscriptions. Currently it seems
         | that Substack is the best for that.
         | 
         | Depending on audience and how you advertise to them, I've seen
         | people be really successful on Patreon. I outlined some of that
         | in a different comment here earlier, but $15k+ a month (from
         | Patreon alone, not including other publishing that you can also
         | do) is achievable and I've seen it more than once on somewhat
         | esoteric genre fiction at Patreon.
        
         | markwisde wrote:
         | Indeed. Royalties are the issue. I just published a book with a
         | well-known editor and I'm making 10% per copy (ebook or print).
         | The book is priced at more than 50$ and yet I'll only make this
         | amount by selling 10 copies (of course this is before tax).
         | 
         | Interestingly, if your editor has an affiliate program you can
         | make as much money by advertising some link that leads to
         | purchases. So as a writer, if you do both you end up getting
         | 20% on these. It's still not that much.
         | 
         | Recently, I wrote a small handbook about security and the
         | mindset you need to care about security in your company
         | (https://www.securityhandbook.io) and I self published it for
         | 20$ using stripe checkout. Every purchase yields me a bit more
         | than 19$, which feels amazing every time as I directly get the
         | money. I actually made more money selling this self published
         | book than with my big editing company.
        
           | la_fayette wrote:
           | Ok cool, congratulations to the security handbook! I have
           | checked prices for printing books, because I am in the
           | process of writing a regional mountain bike guide book.
           | Although, I only find deals for 3-5$ per book... 1$ seems
           | quite cheap to me.
        
         | mritchie712 wrote:
         | This is self promotion done well. Provide insight into the
         | problem you solve and explain where you fit into this story.
         | Nice job.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | peterarmstrong wrote:
           | Thanks :)
           | 
           | Ironically, I've been talking about the relationship between
           | lean publishing and serial fiction for a long time (for
           | example, this video from a conference talk I did in 2013 -
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozO0kOnqmyA), but Leanpub has
           | never hit anything close to product-market fit for fiction.
           | We do well in our niche of computer programming / data
           | science / business types of books, but we have essentially no
           | traction in fiction for a number of reasons.
           | 
           | If an author was going to use Leanpub for fiction, the right
           | thing to do would be to use our toolchain to generate the
           | ebook and print-ready PDF, but then to also publish it on
           | Amazon KDP and Wattpad for the exposure. For example, my
           | teenage son did this with his debut sci-fi novel: he wrote it
           | in Word (since he didn't want to write in Markdown, despite
           | my best efforts to convince him that Markdown was superior),
           | did a git push to his book repo on GitHub, generated the
           | ebook on Leanpub (our Word support is an unofficial hidden
           | feature; we just use pandoc to turn the .docx into Markdown
           | first), and then uploaded it to Amazon. Ironically, the worst
           | thing about this whole process was at the end: he also had to
           | copy and paste the chapters into Wattpad when he did an
           | update, and Wattpad wants small chapters for page views, so
           | the copying and pasting was a very slow manual process...
        
             | mritchie712 wrote:
             | My wife has toyed with the idea of writing romance novels.
             | Do you have many romance writers on Leanpub? Her thinking
             | is to keep the "trashiness" of most romance but improve on
             | the story and writing. She keeps saying "I need a
             | publisher", but I was thinking there must be a simple way
             | to publish straight to Amazon, looks like that's Leanpub!
        
               | cultofmetatron wrote:
               | you can publish directly. no need for leanpub.
               | 
               | https://kdp.amazon.com/en_US/
        
               | peterarmstrong wrote:
               | Agreed! We don't do anything to help with that part of
               | the process: you need to use that page either way :)
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Self publishing is easy. Finding audience is hard.
        
               | peterarmstrong wrote:
               | Regardless of what type of book your wife is writing, if
               | she uses Leanpub she needs to do the upload to KDP
               | herself: Leanpub doesn't currently do anything here.
               | 
               | There are other companies like BookBaby which do the
               | "publish to Amazon for you" type of thing; Leanpub
               | currently does not do that. We are just a toolchain to
               | make ebooks plus an optional storefront to sell them. You
               | can sell the ebooks you produce using Leanpub on any
               | storefront such as KDP; you own your work. We do not have
               | many romance writers on Leanpub, and a simple look at our
               | homepage will explain why: our storefront looks like a
               | place for computer programming books, not romance novels.
               | 
               | Also, most romance novels are written in Word, not
               | Markdown, and our Word support is a hidden feature, kind
               | of like the secret menu at In-N-Out burger. The way our
               | Word support works is that you write in a Dropbox folder
               | (or using GitHub or Bitbucket), and you make your
               | Book.txt file list one or more Word files (instead of
               | Markdown files) as the manuscript content. Then when you
               | click the button to preview or publish the ebook, we
               | generate the PDF, EPUB and MOBI based on those Word
               | files, and you can do whatever you want with them. It's
               | actually pretty smooth once you set it up, but it sounds
               | really complicated, and we don't market it at all: hence
               | another reason we don't have many romance writers on
               | Leanpub!
               | 
               | Anyway, if that sounds like a useful thing then we may be
               | worth a shot. Leanpub book landing pages look nice and
               | professional, but in terms of attracting an audience of
               | readers for a romance novel, we are not going to be much
               | help. This is why places like Wattpad do well in this
               | regard. (Leanpub does help attract an audience for our
               | computer programming books and similar types of books, of
               | course, primarily through our weekly and monthly sale
               | newsletters.)
               | 
               | Frankly, my recommendation for any aspiring first-time
               | novelist with a small social media following would be to
               | publish in-progress on Wattpad first to see if they get
               | traction, and then to consider Substack and Amazon KDP
               | for places to monetize if they do. Then once they've
               | gotten to that point, if they're looking for tools to
               | produce a nice ebook to sell on KDP, Leanpub is one of
               | the options they can use as a toolchain.
               | 
               | (On the other hand, if they have a reasonable social
               | media following, they could skip Wattpad and go directly
               | to Substack, KDP or even Leanpub and point their
               | followers at the appropriate landing page for their
               | book...)
        
               | Mehdi2277 wrote:
               | There are smaller similar sites to wattpad that are
               | easier to get viewers for new novels. I like tapas, but
               | probably several more worth exploring (unsure if woopread
               | is only translations or supports self publishing). I'd
               | likely submit chapters to several sites at once as a new
               | author just to increase chance of building an initial
               | following.
        
       | plorkyeran wrote:
       | > There are thousands of paid fiction authors on Patreon but only
       | 25 earn more than $1,000/month, only six earn more than
       | $2,000/month, and only one earns more than the $5,000/month (and
       | she's already a bestselling author).
       | 
       | This is just incredibly wrong? There are quite a few web serial
       | authors making more than $5000/month on Patreon.
        
         | armorproof wrote:
         | Perhaps they didn't fit a search criteria? Got examples we can
         | see?
        
           | dtech wrote:
           | Graphtreon records all pledges [1]
           | 
           | [1] https://graphtreon.com/top-patreon-creators/writing
        
           | plorkyeran wrote:
           | A few I'm aware of:
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/Wildbow $6000/month
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/SelkieMyth $6500/month
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/Magic_Smithing $10,000/month
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/Shirtaloon $17,000/month
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/pirateaba 4300 patrons with no $
           | listed but I've heard it's well over $10,000/month
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Thank you!!!! This is very helpful. Looks like they aren't
             | tagged as fiction which is why I couldn't find them. I'll
             | definitely dig into these as some amazing case studies!
        
       | gdubs wrote:
       | One book that really changed my life was "Feeling Good" by David
       | Burns. It kinda popularize Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. But the
       | book wasn't an overnight success. It languished for years as his
       | publisher refused to put any marketing dollars into it. They made
       | it clear that his book wasn't really gonna get any love. Anyway,
       | one day he got a call from Phil Donahue's producer. If I recall
       | correctly, Burns had spent years doing any local spot he could
       | get, and made it a point to be extra appreciative and grateful to
       | anyone who interviewed him. One of these people went on to become
       | one of Donahue's producers. (Donahue was in the class of Oprah
       | back in the 80s and 90s). Overnight, his book became a huge
       | success.
       | 
       | There's a lot of stories of 'overnight' successes actually being
       | many many years in the making. Anyway, this was just one relevant
       | one that came to mind reading this.
        
       | annexrichmond wrote:
       | > Even on the high end, there were only 11 books that sold more
       | than 500,000 copies--which is paltry when you consider that the
       | 10 best-performing Netflix films saw more than 68 million views.
       | 
       | This is a pretty unhelpful comparison as I'm not aware of any
       | major read as much as you want book subscription service that
       | pays dividends to the author. What's the value in purchasing a
       | book versus merely "viewing" a movie?
        
         | jagged-chisel wrote:
         | > I'm not aware of any major read as much as you want book
         | subscription service ...
         | 
         | Kindle Unlimited
         | 
         | > ... that pays dividends to the author.
         | 
         | I'd like to learn whether KU does this, pretends to do this, or
         | does nothing at all.
        
       | tobias3 wrote:
       | I don't know where she gets the idea that serial publishing isn't
       | done currently. Pirateaba, creator of wanderinginn.com has 4342
       | patreons (10k per month at least). At that point who cares about
       | the NYTimes bestselling list?
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Very excited to check this one out. Thank you!
        
         | spookybones wrote:
         | Do you happen to know how this author grew her audience? I'm
         | curious.
        
       | NoOneNew wrote:
       | I have one big issue with the book industry... many actually...
       | but related to the article, all this whining is self imposed.
       | 
       | Literary books are marketed far heavier than genre. This is the
       | equivalent to arthouse films vs what actually makes money as a
       | movie/show.
       | 
       | Let's take one similar plot. A chemistry teacher is diagnosed
       | with cancer, cant get treated and eventually dies. Literary and
       | arthouse will do a discovery piece on how this person copes with
       | death and cries with their family, then character dies. Genre...
       | the dude builds a meth empire and everything the arthouse did,
       | the genre adds in. Let's be serious about which was really going
       | to be successful and why.
       | 
       | Entertainment is about escaping boring. You fail that, you fail
       | in general. Most book lists are boring people with boring
       | problems doing boring things.
       | 
       | The book industry did this to themselves by shitting on the genre
       | writers. The publisher that does a marketing campaign, "to hell
       | with boring literary books" and pushes mysteries, scifi, cozys,
       | fantasy and others, they'll open up to the demographic that's not
       | "regular readers". Thats about 70% of a population is an untapped
       | market. Most people who dont read on a normal basis have been
       | trained by school and the book media that fun books are "wrong".
       | I have zero sympathy for the book industry in this regard and I'm
       | an avid reader. I've converted more non-readers than any guilt
       | tripping article regarding this problem.
        
         | eric_b wrote:
         | I think you're spot on. I'm an avid reader but I enjoy all the
         | "low-brow" stuff. Tropey high fantasy, cheesy sci-fi, formulaic
         | legal thrillers, I love it all. If it has "spy" anywhere in the
         | description I'm in.
         | 
         | But you're right - the only books I ever hear about from a
         | marketing standpoint are the ones my wife is reading for her
         | book club. So either Oprah talked about it, or it's part of the
         | "book club marketing machine" or whatever.
         | 
         | I wish the publishing industry could turn things around. I
         | think the low percentage of people who actively read fiction is
         | ultimately a bad thing. Binge watching Netflix is not the same
         | as binge reading a good book series imo.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | The low percentage off readers isn't a bad thing: they buy
           | book after book and keep the industry going. Sure there
           | aren't as many as would buy a movie (however you get your
           | movies - cable, dvd, theater...), but that is still a large
           | enough niche to be worth serving.
           | 
           | However expanding the niche would be a good thing.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | I might have to add "spy" in the description of my next
           | novel.
           | 
           | > the only books I ever hear about from a marketing
           | standpoint
           | 
           | I'm actually pushing my novel via Taboola at the moment. It's
           | definitively not profitable in terms of _sales_ of a single
           | book, but interestingly in terms of _signups to my e-mail
           | list_ it 's one of the best I've found, and I'm spending a
           | tiny amount on it each month on the theory that I'm reaching
           | users who are less jaded and more likely to be outside of the
           | typical bubble I reach on e.g. twitter, and who might well
           | turn out to be worthwhile to be able to repeatedly market to
           | over time in the hope of seeding some word of mouth outside
           | of my normal audience.
           | 
           | Half the fun for me (this is a hobby) is trying to figure out
           | the marketing channels that will work...
        
         | Siira wrote:
         | I don't really see the evidence backing this claim. Most
         | popular fiction books on Goodreads are not exactly "deep."
         | Publishers aren't some stupid ideologues either. It's far more
         | probable that books simply can't compete with the addictive,
         | visual, social entertainment that is growing by the day.
         | 
         | This isn't such a big problem either. The minority that does
         | read books are still huge in absolute terms, and we have more
         | options than ever to read.
        
           | dimitrios1 wrote:
           | > It's far more probable that books simply can't compete with
           | the addictive, visual, social entertainment that is growing
           | by the day.
           | 
           | The thing is, they aren't competing. Those attracted to
           | addictive visual social entertainment weren't likely to read
           | a book anyways. The type that enjoys both does both, and does
           | not consider one to be a replacement of the other.
        
         | thaumasiotes wrote:
         | > The publisher that does a marketing campaign, "to hell with
         | boring literary books" and pushes mysteries, scifi, cozys,
         | fantasy and others, they'll open up to the demographic that's
         | not "regular readers". Thats about 70% of a population is an
         | untapped market.
         | 
         | Tor? DAW? You talk like no one ever thought of publishing
         | science fiction or fantasy books. It's been going on all along!
        
           | NoOneNew wrote:
           | Like I said to another commenter, avid readers know these
           | publishers. Outsiders who would potentially read from them
           | dont know they exist. Non readers think books like The Da
           | Vinci Code and Harry Potter are once in a lifetime books.
           | They're actually fairly normal genre pieces. Difference was,
           | these were marketed better.
        
         | KittenInABox wrote:
         | Every major publishing house has a SFF imprint with its own
         | marketing budget and does marketing campaigns. Tor dot com
         | (Macmillan), Orbit Books (Hachette), etc. They have marketing
         | campaigns on youtube, tiktok, instagram, twitter and more. They
         | have little video trailers, cover reveals, physical and
         | collectible advance copies etc.
         | 
         | Or in simple words, could you clarify here?
        
           | NoOneNew wrote:
           | The average person who doesn't visit a bookstore has zero
           | clue. If you're a reader, its all duh, but you're acting like
           | an elitist then. Just because you know, doesn't mean
           | outsiders know. At that, the "right books to read" attitude
           | pisses me off. Its everywhere in some form or another in
           | popular media where someone can accidentally see it.
           | 
           | The industry is constantly marketing to their diminishing
           | demographic instead of trying to figure out how to increase
           | it again.
           | 
           | Talk to non readers to find out their knowledge set of what
           | kind of books are out there. Again, I convert folks all the
           | time. I get zero a year readers to an average of 6 to 10 a
           | year. Mostly because i used to hate reading until i got
           | converted as well. I know the pain points.
        
           | spoonjim wrote:
           | When there is a book that "everyone is talking about" (i.e
           | Oprah or the New Yorker or whatever) it's usually a memoir of
           | someone's difficult life, usually a member of a declared
           | "oppressed" group. For example, Ta-Nehisi Coates' "Between
           | the World and Me."
           | 
           | I read that book. It's not even supposed to be enjoyable, and
           | it's not really great writing or something that I feel like I
           | need to tell my friends about. Essentially it's stuff you
           | feel like you "should" read rather than you "want" to read.
           | Like vegetables instead of ice cream. The ice cream is the
           | page turning thrillers where some guy is beating up criminals
           | in parking garages and chasing art thieves around the world.
           | 
           | The book industry puts its highest profile promotion on
           | vegetables instead of ice cream.
        
       | toomuchredbull wrote:
       | Hasn't this always been the case? It's like being a playwright or
       | any artist really. A very few successful ones, and lots of people
       | who do it as a hobby. Even some of the successful ones are only
       | successful in death, not life.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | This is true, the creative arts have always been volatile as a
         | career choice. And it's true that some of those artists become
         | successful as a fluke or as an accident of their death.
         | 
         | But it's also true that many of the successful creatives
         | intended to be successful, or at least tried very hard to be,
         | and those were the seeds that set up for some kind of "big
         | break." For example, in the case of Dan Brown, one of the most
         | successful authors to date, he scheduled his own press tour,
         | booked his own interviews, sent out press releases, etc. And
         | his early books actually did pretty well, selling about 10,000
         | copies each because of his promotional efforts.
         | 
         | Of course he went on to sell millions of copies, but I don't
         | think he would have accidentally become a best seller without
         | developing a platform for his work with those early novels.
        
           | richardwhiuk wrote:
           | Yes, but there's also probably a mass of people who did what
           | Dan Brown did and sold < 10k copies.
        
       | spoonjim wrote:
       | "Novelist" is not a job where lots of people would be expected to
       | be making healthy middle class incomes. An average person is
       | going to be able to read maybe a few thousand books in their life
       | and the older books don't get any worse so there is more
       | competition every year.
       | 
       | How many basketball players are earning more than $100,000 a
       | year? Not many, because everyone who likes basketball wants to
       | watch the same few people who are really great at it. The same is
       | true with novels, so unless you have the talent and drive and
       | hustle to get to the top of the game, then you should consider
       | your writing a hobby just like the suburban dad playing
       | basketball with his buddies harbors no thoughts of trying out for
       | the Chicago Bulls.
        
       | failwhaleshark wrote:
       | Power law distribution.
       | 
       | You have to assume no one will read the book and you won't
       | necessarily get rich but make it good for your own work ethic and
       | prepare just in case it were to blow-up.
       | 
       | It's sad that fewer and fewer people read books anymore, most
       | people are too glued to screens looking for notifications,
       | swiping, or playing games. (I almost ran-over a guy glued to his
       | phone who nearly avoided being ran over by a bus through dumb
       | luck and walked right in front of my car.)
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | synergy20 wrote:
       | I thought about writing books (technical stuff) but then realized
       | there is nothing I can do about piracy, pdf/epub/etc are just a
       | few clicks away. unlike music and movies that you have some
       | leagues to enforce IP laws once a while, for books there is
       | essentially none. It's hard to get motivations considering
       | writing books are so demanding.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | I won't say piracy is a non-issue. OK, it's a non-issue. The
         | issue is if no one knows or cares that you wrote a book on a
         | tech topic. To the degree people do, the far bigger deal in
         | general is that you have now written a book on tech-related
         | topic that can be career-enhancing in many other ways. This is
         | not universally the case perhaps, but it's the way to bet.
         | 
         | TBH, I find a downside of publishing through a traditional
         | publisher is that I can't just freely distribute in digital
         | form.
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | I believe most authors of technical books get most of their
         | payback from it in the form of enhanced status for consulting
         | gigs, being as they are the person who "literally wrote the
         | book" on topic [x]. I have heard that has been the case for
         | quite some time.
        
       | mxcrossb wrote:
       | I wonder how serializing a novel would mesh with most author's
       | work flow. I guess most would want to write it first and release
       | monthly an already finished product?
        
         | hodder wrote:
         | It will likely lead to less continuity in the story and far
         | more cliffhangers as it jumps through the chapters like Dan
         | Brown.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | There are quite a few writers who publish a chapter or two a
         | week on Patreon.
         | 
         | It can produce some strange incentives: For one thing, they
         | start getting reader feedback after every single chapter, if
         | they want it. Some writers develop really fast-paced styles.
         | 
         | For another, they often start releasing chapters as they are
         | written - meaning they can't have an editor who reads chapter
         | 20 advise them to go fix an inconsistency back in chapter 4.
         | 
         | Also, some writers realise the moment they bring the story to a
         | conclusion, they stop getting paid. That's OK for comedy/slice-
         | of-life/X-of-the-week content - The Simpsons has no need for
         | character growth or overarching plot lines - but works poorly
         | for other genres: What good is a romance where the characters
         | can never kiss, or an epic fantasy where the one ring can never
         | be thrown into mount doom?
         | 
         | Of course, some of these incentives are hardly new: Other media
         | have been subject to them for years.
        
         | matsemann wrote:
         | The Martian was released one chapter at the time. Same with
         | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. As for the last
         | one, it's felt that it was written as it was going along, with
         | certain changes the author normally would have gone back to
         | fix. Like stuff ending up not mattering, or certain
         | inconsistencies in the world building.
         | 
         | But even for larger book series this happens. Like Wheel of
         | Time, one can in an earlier book read about Lan sitting and
         | sharpening his sword. Some books later it's mentioned that his
         | sword never loses its edge. So in later versions of the first
         | book it has been changed to him sharpening his knife instead.
         | 
         | But my guess is those things would happen on a larger scale
         | when not having the opportunity to go back and edit previous
         | chapters.
        
           | narrator wrote:
           | The Martian is probably the best example of an author really
           | embracing the 21st century. You give the text of the book
           | away for free on a website and make money off the people who
           | want the audiobook, the movie rights, the kindle, etc. In the
           | 21st century, entertainment is free, attention is expensive,
           | so you have to give away your free entertainment to get
           | attention and then sell the entertainment in more rarified
           | mediums like movies, audiobooks, even kindle, that require
           | higher production costs than writing a blog.
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | Peter Watts does this too.
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Yes! I actually interviewed Andy Weir for another piece for
             | this exact reason.
             | https://ellegriffin.substack.com/p/publishing-industry-
             | truth
        
         | GCA10 wrote:
         | A lot of 19th century fiction was done this way. Authors
         | (Dickens, etc.) tended to work from a loose outline and
         | construct the details as they rolled along.
         | 
         | Peer at those books closely and you can see some odd detours
         | that were shut down. Also some padding to get more segment-by-
         | segment payments. But it's workable
        
           | ellegriffin wrote:
           | Absolutely, but it was completely profitable for the author.
           | Alexandre Dumas earned about 10,000 francs ($65,743 today)
           | per installment when he was poached from The Presse by The
           | Constitutionnel in 1845. And it's estimated he was making
           | about that much per installment writing The Count of Monte
           | Cristo. People followed it like it was Game of Thrones!
           | 
           | (More on that here if you're interested:
           | https://ellegriffin.substack.com/p/publishing-industry-truth
        
           | Mauricebranagh wrote:
           | Which is why there are page long descriptions of horses and
           | carriages in the count of mote cristo.
        
           | kesselvon wrote:
           | The second half of Count of Monte Cristo felt like some
           | serious word count padding
        
           | kingsuper20 wrote:
           | Serialization was quite common in science fiction pulp
           | magazines also.
           | 
           | It's interesting to consider the meta-version of
           | serialization..novel sets. Nothing new here, the Oz books
           | being an obvious example, but it's funny how it plays into a
           | human need to both read about familiar characters or places
           | and to have physical sets of books that match.
        
         | hluska wrote:
         | I helped a writer friend move a writing workshop online last
         | summer. This was one of the topics. The crowd seemed evenly
         | split between:
         | 
         | - write it at once and release in chunks.
         | 
         | - release it as you write.
         | 
         | - And the most interesting (in my opinion), release it as you
         | write and then if it's popular, do a full round of edits based
         | on crowd feedback and self publish the 'definitive, crowd
         | edited edition'.
        
           | paulpauper wrote:
           | crowdsourcing the edits sounds like a good way to never
           | finish
        
         | andrewzah wrote:
         | Release it chapter by chapter and put it up on substack/patreon
         | or just for free in blog-style format. That's what ithare.com
         | and some other programming books did to build an audience
         | before (self) publishing.
        
         | bluescrn wrote:
         | As with so many TV shows, there'll never be a satisfying
         | ending, they'll likely be cancelled on a cliffhanger
        
       | aj7 wrote:
       | A lot of books are written to claim "ownership" rights over
       | certain ideas. These "rights" are convertible to other items of
       | value: lectures, consultancies, academic appointments, jobs of
       | all kinds, etc. This is almost the sole rationale for technical
       | books- the value of being considered an expert.
        
       | tyrex2017 wrote:
       | imho, for most, the biggest advantage of writing a book is to
       | upsell consulting after that.
       | 
       | together with that, it is a great learning opportunity for the
       | author.
       | 
       | all in all: not for me
        
       | glaberficken wrote:
       | Follow me on a naive exercise here: Zoom out from books only
       | let's look at some media that are competing for people's
       | attention in 2021.
       | 
       | (not exhaustive:)
       | 
       | - Video-games (including mobile)
       | 
       | - Social Media (fb, tiktok instagram etc)
       | 
       | - Video streaming services (youtube, netflix, etc)
       | 
       | - Music (single purchase and streaming)
       | 
       | - TV (yup still going)
       | 
       | - News (TV, and online mostly)
       | 
       | - books (print and ebooks)
       | 
       | Let's state that most of these industries have seen the amount of
       | content published increase exponentially in the last 15 years.
       | 
       | Assuming that premise to be true is it really that much of a
       | surprise that the average income of each content author is
       | decreasing?
       | 
       | The only way that would be surprising is if the number of
       | available attention hours was increasing at an even faster rate
       | (which i guess would not be impossible if you could measure the
       | masses of digital consumers who entered the "attention market" in
       | that same time period).
       | 
       | My guess is that the scales tip a lot to the supply side. We
       | simply have too much stuff being produced now and not enough
       | people to consume it.
       | 
       | Then there is the fact that in the open publishing models we have
       | now the market does get flooded with a lot of below par quality
       | stuff.
       | 
       | The way we deal with it now is typically by some sort of
       | popularity based algorithm that aggregates attention on a few
       | winners and produce a huge long tail of "looser" content.
       | 
       | I don't know if i have the right "picture" here but it is
       | certainly my gut feeling that there is too much stuff out there
       | for it to retain the same value.
        
       | jihadjihad wrote:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law
        
         | failwhaleshark wrote:
         | Yep. This is the consequence of differential equation-like
         | behavior of accumulating attention, popularity, power,
         | virality, reach, wealth, big name publishers, etc.
         | 
         | The rate of change is roughly proportional to the amount
         | present. The biggest gets even bigger, faster.
        
       | drivers99 wrote:
       | I didn't see anyone mention The Long Tail by Chris Anderson so
       | figured I would.
       | 
       | Here's a summary: https://fourminutebooks.com/the-long-tail-
       | summary/
       | 
       | Sounds like being the aggregator of a bunch of niche products can
       | be profitable, but I don't think it explains how the producers of
       | that content actually make money off the situation while being
       | part of the long tail.
        
       | steelframe wrote:
       | I put some effort into writing a sci-fi novel some years back,
       | but I've since realized that the highest income-per-word ratio
       | that I can hope to realize from my creative writing efforts has
       | to come from my perf self assessment.
        
         | zffr wrote:
         | I've always wondered how much of a direct impact your self
         | assessment actually has on your compensation adjustment.
         | 
         | At least in my current job, I feel like my manager already has
         | a ball-park idea of the Comp adjustment to give me. It feels
         | like I would probably get more or less the same adjustment no
         | matter what I write so long as I write something reasonable
        
           | steelframe wrote:
           | Yeah, I hear you. I've always put considerable effort into my
           | self assessments, trying to pick just the right words to make
           | sure it's concise yet potent. However I had already made up
           | my mind to leave my previous employer by the time perf review
           | cycle had come around, so I decided to understate everything
           | as much as I possibly could, basically eliminating all
           | superlatives and just stating as flatly as I possibly could
           | all of the things that happened.
           | 
           | My project was "late" -- as in, later than an arbitrary
           | deadline everyone around me was trying to hoist on the
           | project versus what I said all along the timeline was
           | actually going to be. Eschewing metrics, I focused on "soft"
           | issues like supporting members of my team who were struggling
           | with the sudden work-from-home transition. I deliberately
           | kept any mention of ARR, growth, or anything like that out.
           | 
           | I still ended up with an "exceeds expectations" rating. My
           | management must have made up their minds ahead of time about
           | that, because what I wrote for my self assessment didn't
           | support it.
        
       | rahimnathwani wrote:
       | 1000 books sold does not imply 1000 true fans. Just because
       | someone spent $10-$30 on a book, that doesn't mean they read the
       | book, or like the book, or are willing to drop $100 for the
       | author's next book (or next 12 months' output).
        
       | asgraham wrote:
       | These are two completely different statistics: 1) last year, new
       | releases sold poorly, perhaps unexpectedly (NYT article's claim);
       | 2) last year, a relatively small portion of _all currently
       | released titles_ sold a lot of books, and most titles sold few
       | books (linked article 's data).
       | 
       | Pulling from the central table, last year: one title sold over 1
       | million copies; ten titles sold a collective 5-10 million copies;
       | 267 titles sold a collective 26-133 million copies; 7,294 titles
       | sold a collective 70-700 million copies; and 2.6 million titles
       | sold between 0 and 2.6 BILLION copies. My guess is that last
       | number is way closer to zero than 2.6 billion, so I'll exclude it
       | when I say: the table the author cites shows that last year sold
       | 100-840 million copies. Digital copies! Nearly double that when
       | you include print books. So there's no support for the author's
       | claim, "Books as a medium just don't have an audience--or rather,
       | they have a very niche audience."
       | 
       | Was last year bad for new release sales? Seemingly, according to
       | NYT. Was last year _relatively_ bad for all book sales? Maybe, I
       | don 't know. Does the data support the implication that 0.0001%
       | of new authors will make a living? No. It says that 0.0001% of
       | all currently selling books will single-handedly earn a living
       | for their author in that year.
       | 
       | My wild guess is that authors make most of their money from new
       | releases, so we'd really need to see the data underlying the NYT
       | article on new releases, not this article on all online book
       | sales.
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Hmmmm, I think you're looking at that table wrong. Ten titles
         | sold between 500,000 and one million copies (not 5-10 million
         | copies). And 267 titles sold between 100,000 and 500,000
         | copies, (not in the millions). That top line is the highest
         | one.
        
           | asgraham wrote:
           | Isn't it saying that ten titles each sold between 500,000 and
           | one million copies? So collectively they sold 5-10 million
           | copies?
           | 
           | (I really enjoyed the article, by the way, once it was past
           | claims about this data-- the points about fanfic and story
           | monetization are important ones)
        
             | ellegriffin wrote:
             | Oh, yes you are correct there. In online sales only (I
             | don't have the brick & mortar numbers). So to your point,
             | people are buying books, it's just that they are all buying
             | the same top selling books. And thank you!!!!! I'm still
             | trying to figure out the industry enough to succeed in it,
             | but it's a hard industry to succeed in as it turns out!
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | I feel if you're including digital copies you need something to
         | correct - I've received a number of kindle e-books for free
         | that I've never even downloaded. There's no harm in adding to a
         | collection when it's digital, whereas I am much more picky over
         | free physical books.
        
           | asgraham wrote:
           | Fair point-- I don't know how the data defined a "sale."
           | However, the numbers are almost identical for print books,
           | just a little lower. But same order of magnitude.
        
       | NikolaeVarius wrote:
       | Why would anyone consider this shocking, there is a massive
       | amount of content out there, and the human race is finite.
        
       | bombcar wrote:
       | The "revenue earned self-published" is the key take-away - if you
       | can sell 10k books a year (either 10 1k books or one 10k book)
       | you can have a moderately comfortable income, especially if you
       | have other work (or your book can come out of other work - thing
       | books that are mainly compilations of blog posts or articles).
        
         | ellegriffin wrote:
         | Yes! Exactly! It seems doable....
        
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