[HN Gopher] Was cancer less likely in a pre-industrial world?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Was cancer less likely in a pre-industrial world?
        
       Author : pseudolus
       Score  : 89 points
       Date   : 2021-05-15 11:04 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nationalgeographic.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nationalgeographic.com)
        
       | GekkePrutser wrote:
       | I think it was mainly less likely because people were so much
       | more likely to die of other causes, so they'd die before the
       | cancer got a chance. Healthcare was at its most basic and out of
       | reach for common people.
       | 
       | I'm sure some of our environmental issues make cancer more
       | likely. But we shouldn't imagine that the pre-industrial world
       | was super healthy. People were living in filth. This was in fact
       | one of the reasons they died so soon.
       | 
       | It's also one of the few things we haven't really found a cure
       | for. I think because each cancer is a different random genetic
       | mutation that would benefit the most from a custom generated
       | antibody or something. Whereas other major causes of death have
       | been pretty much eradicated by things like antibiotics and
       | vaccines. So I think this makes the numbers relatively higher.
       | 
       | And of course because healthcare was so poor, I'm sure there
       | would also be many causes of death misattributed. Even in this
       | day and age we can't seem to standardise it. Some countries
       | attribute every death to coronavirus if the person was infected,
       | others only if it was 100% certain to be the cause of death.
        
         | mlac wrote:
         | I'd hazard a guess that a lot more people also died of "natural
         | causes". Unless you cut someone open, the way cancer actually
         | kills you (organs shutting down, trouble breathing, etc) would
         | be described as "natural causes" or getting old and dying...
        
       | arnejenssen wrote:
       | The modern age has possibly removed some carcinogens like
       | inhaling smoke from (bon)fires, mycotoxins from spoilt food,
       | nutritional illiteracy and unsanitary conditions. But the modern
       | age has introduced a lot of new ones like tobacco, food
       | additives, sugar, gluten, radiation, asbestos, industrial
       | processing of food, pesticides, sedentary lifestyle.
        
         | phonypc wrote:
         | Calling a lot of these things carcinogens is a little odd. It's
         | not synonymous with harmful, and even harm isn't obvious for
         | all of these. Food additives and processing in general? Gluten
         | for people who tolerate it?
        
           | fpoling wrote:
           | During the last 120 years wheat was optimized for machines
           | making its gluten content higher that could explain higher
           | gluten intolerance among people presently.
        
             | gadaprog wrote:
             | Asking out of ignorance here: why is higher gluten wheat
             | more optimal for machines?
        
               | fpoling wrote:
               | It was not done on purpose. As an unintended consequence
               | of selection for easy to harvest mechanically, easier to
               | bake, better to respond to fertilizers modern wheat
               | varieties contain more specific proteins of gluten type
               | that cause allergic reactions.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | Is there any evidence supporting this hypothesis?
        
               | galgalesh wrote:
               | For context: the molecular shape of gluten causes dough
               | to hold better. Wheat with more gluten gives softer bread
               | which rises better. Hence why gluten is so prevalent in
               | domesticated wheat.
        
               | fpoling wrote:
               | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20664999/
        
         | sokoloff wrote:
         | Is tobacco use higher today vs pre-industrial eras? I don't
         | think of it as a particularly modern introduction to humanity.
        
           | magneticnorth wrote:
           | Tobacco was unknown in Europe until Europeans were introduced
           | to it by native Americans.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tobacco
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | Wow. That's mind-blowing. I knew it was a huge economic
             | driver in the early American colonies, but I always
             | imagined it pre-dated [in Europe] the colonization.
             | 
             | Thank you for my TIL!
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | Other things that changed post-1492: potatoes, maize
               | (corn), tomatoes, cocoa (chocolate), vanilla are probably
               | most predominant across the Atlantic.
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbian_exchange
               | 
               | Bunch of stuff happening in the Pacific as well, e.g.,
               | chilli peppers (capsicum):
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chili_pepper#Distribution
               | _to_A...
               | 
               | Good book:
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1493:_Uncovering_the_New_
               | World...
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | The entire Colombian Exchange is eye-opening. Try to
               | imagine Italian food without tomatoes, Indian food
               | without chili peppers, or a Britain with no chips to
               | accompany their fried fish.
        
         | devmunchies wrote:
         | IMO above all is abundant food (overeating). No food is 100%
         | perfect, so if you eat way too much you are more likely to
         | expose yourself to something toxic or inflammatory.
         | 
         | Our bodies aren't designed to be topped-off 3 times a day.
        
           | agumonkey wrote:
           | And with the ideas of 1) less food promoting better cell
           | health (especially factory made food being altered for sales)
           | 2) more exercise ensuring better health, I have a solid
           | belief that past life did well for our health on many fronts.
           | (sure they were lacking antibiotics and a lot of useful
           | medicine)
        
         | refactor_master wrote:
         | You lost me at gluten though.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | bcatanzaro wrote:
         | Gluten is not a carcinogen
        
       | zackees wrote:
       | sv40 is a cancer causing virus that contaminated 1/3rd of all
       | polio vaccines.
       | 
       | From wikipedia: The discovery of SV40 revealed that between 1955
       | and 1963 around 90% of children and 60% of adults in the U.S.
       | were inoculated with SV40-contaminated polio vaccines.
       | 
       | Link to studies:
       | https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=sv40...
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | "Studies of groups of people who received polio vaccine during
         | 1955-1963 provide evidence of no increased cancer risk." [1]
         | 
         | [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25057632/
        
           | Supermancho wrote:
           | I think a quick google search has steered you wrong. I don't
           | think this is a huge story (I've never heard of SV40 before
           | reading this thread), but just a little deeper...reading the
           | executive summary, the story seems less clear cut.
           | 
           | "The committee concludes that the biological evidence is
           | moderate that SV40 exposure could lead to cancer in humans
           | under natural conditions."
           | 
           | And there's more. SV40's probably also transformative
           | (observed in both mammals and humans) and the vaccine has
           | moderate evidence of causality.
           | 
           | Then there's the strange disappearance of the CDC page awhile
           | back - http://www.laleva.org/eng/2013/07/cdc_disappears_page_
           | linkin...
           | 
           | And the papers correlating the virus to cancer:
           | 
           | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10472327/
           | 
           | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16966607/
           | 
           | etc
        
           | sm0ss117 wrote:
           | Quick rule of thumb, the reason we associate it with cancer
           | is because the only ppl we systemically tested for it had
           | cancer. If you tested everybody you'd probably find it in
           | everybody since it was in a mandatory vaccine
        
           | zackees wrote:
           | NIH is corrupt and often covers for big pharma which funds
           | it. SV40 has consistently been found in tumors across the
           | body:
           | 
           | https://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/67/17/8065.short
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | Correlation does not equal causation. A virus being found
             | in a tumor doesn't mean it caused it.
        
       | Sebb767 wrote:
       | One thing which I always thought of, but which the article
       | doesn't mention, is age. Especially older people seem more prone
       | to cancer, so in my mind a lower life expectancy will naturally
       | lead to a lower cancer rate, as people die before cancer "is able
       | to get them". Or am I missing something?
        
         | rtkwe wrote:
         | Life expectancy is a tricky number to compare across long spans
         | of time because it's heavily influenced by people dying young
         | which was much more common in the past than it is now, people
         | did die earlier but it's not as bad as a say 40 year life
         | expectancy would make it seem because that number is dragged
         | down by lots of early childhood deaths.
        
           | ineedasername wrote:
           | Yes, in 1800, even in more developed countries at the time,
           | about 30% of kids died by age 5. And being pregnant was
           | frequently fatal as well, with nearly 1 in 10 pregnancies
           | killing the mom.
        
         | dheera wrote:
         | Not only that, but I imagine in pre-industrial times, those who
         | got currently-curable forms of cancer didn't get cured during
         | those times, and Darwinian forces stopped them from
         | reproducing.
         | 
         | There isn't a necessarily good or bad here but those Darwinian
         | forces did eliminate a lot of genetic defects from the
         | population before modern medicine.
         | 
         | In the future though we might be able to yet again eliminate
         | defects not by natural selection but by gene editing while
         | still allowing those individuals to carry on a normal life.
        
         | hanniabu wrote:
         | This is a common misconception. Life expectancy hasn't changed
         | much. It's children dying that bright down the average in
         | earlier years. If you lived to your 20s your life expectancy
         | was pretty much the same as it is now.
        
           | linspace wrote:
           | I have heard this multiple times and I would love some
           | citations because although most of the reduction in life
           | expectancy may come from death at child birth, for obvious
           | mathematical reasons, I cannot believe wars, famine and
           | disease don't account for anything
        
             | fpoling wrote:
             | [1] shows pretty convincingly that probability of a dearth
             | due to violence or war has not changed during the last 2000
             | years. What we perceive as peace is a consequence of
             | extremely violent WWII and to lesser extent WWI that killed
             | vastly more people even after accounting for population
             | increase than wars in the 19th century.
             | 
             | [1] - https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violence.pdf
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | WWII was 80 years ago. So yes, when when we compare
               | current mortality due to violenve with past, we don't
               | count WWII as "current".
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | And lack of antibiotics.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | This is not true. Live expectancy for adults did changed a
           | lot too, just not as much as when you count also kids.
           | 
           | > If a medieval person was able to survive childhood, then he
           | had about a 50% chance of living up to 50-55 years.
           | 
           | This is from wiki. Our life expectancy is much higher. In
           | fact, contemporary medicine is saving a lot of adults.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | This is most emphatically not true and it is one of the
           | reasons why contemporary pension systems are nearing
           | bankruptcy and healthcare providers struggle with not having
           | enough geriatric professionals.
           | 
           | Living into your 80s was uncommon prior to, well, even 1950.
           | Nowadays, many developed countries have significant cohorts
           | of people 80+ and even 90+. Unfortunately, while those people
           | are alive, they are not particularly healthy. We haven't yet
           | learnt how to expand average "healthspan" as much as average
           | "lifespan".
        
           | cm2012 wrote:
           | No
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | According the the US Social Security Administration actuarial
           | tables, the life expectancy of male Americans aged 65 years
           | has gone from 12 to 21 years in the last century. This has
           | massive demographic implications.
        
           | teachingassist wrote:
           | I agree, but cancer rates rise sharply as you age.
           | 
           | So, your claim (that life expectancy hasn't changed much)
           | doesn't contradict the parent's claim (that a lot more people
           | are dying of age-related cancers).
        
           | nkozyra wrote:
           | In Victorian England (1840) if you made it to adulthood (20)
           | your life expectancy was ~ 60.
           | 
           | It's 82 today.
           | 
           | The effects are not as dramatic as when infant mortality is
           | included but our life expectancy has absolutely increased.
           | 
           | It's a compelling theory, too, because the average age of a
           | cancer is 66 today. But it really addresses the idea of
           | cancer being less _prevalent_ than less likely.
        
         | eliben wrote:
         | Yes, age and life expectancy is a huge part of it. In the book
         | "Rebel Cell: Cancer, Evolution, and the New Science of Life's
         | Oldest Betrayal", Kat Arney touches upon this exact question
         | and reaches the conclusion that cancer was as prevalent in
         | ancient times as it is now (perhaps accounting for surges like
         | smoking-related cancers), and also mentions age as a big factor
         | in the archaeological discrepancy.
        
         | strken wrote:
         | Perhaps they control for age?
         | 
         | A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant
         | mortality, and if you made it to 10 in 1850 (hardly
         | preindustrial, but preindustrial stats are harder to find) you
         | could expect to live to 60 or so. Presumably you'd compare the
         | cancer rates of your study's skeletons with the cancer rates of
         | today's 60 year olds.
        
           | okaram wrote:
           | I don't have data, but I assume that is only for rich males?
           | Maternity mortality rates were horrible, wars etc
        
           | lmilcin wrote:
           | > A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant
           | mortality
           | 
           | If that was true, then age composition would be roughly the
           | same as is now, except for larger number of infants.
           | 
           | You could even argue that if you had weaker infants die, you
           | should end up with statistically stronger adults than now and
           | you should see people live to older age than now.
           | 
           | I don't want to say infant mortality rate wasn't high, I just
           | want to say that it has nothing to do with the topic of the
           | discussion.
        
             | ksaj wrote:
             | The weakness in that argument is that it presupposes
             | childhood health indicators and adult health indicators are
             | linear, which we know to not be the case.
             | 
             | For example, the introduction and "ramping up" of
             | testosterone and estrogen at puberty has a significant
             | impact on the human condition that simply cannot apply to
             | the prepubescent state, as does their subsequent decline in
             | menopause and old age in general.
             | 
             | Each stage of life comes with its own signals that can be
             | serious health conditions if present in other stages of
             | life, but completely normal and healthy at the appropriate
             | stage. A tween with acne is rarely something to call the
             | doctor about. But a 3 year old with acne certainly is. A
             | colicky baby needs a soother or some other placation. But a
             | colicky adult certainly needs medical intervention.
             | 
             | So the idea that weak babies make weak adults and strong
             | babies make strong adults doesn't work out as cleanly as
             | this comment suggests.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | nemo44x wrote:
           | It's amazing how precarious being born is. I think I read
           | that about 200 years ago around 40% of people didn't make it
           | past 5 years old or something like that. Antibiotics have
           | helped a lot in modern times, especially for mothers giving
           | birth.
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | From a pair that has been undergoing IVF treatment since
             | November 2019: it is very precarious. There are a lot of
             | opportunities to die before someone draws their first
             | breath.
        
             | retrac wrote:
             | The improvement in child survival is attributed to many
             | things, but it may be a mix of vaccinations, less indoor
             | air pollution, much better hygiene, better nutrition, and
             | perhaps just better parenting. (People have had some very
             | peculiar ideas on how to care for and raise children; I
             | wouldn't be surprised if in hindsight our distant
             | descendants consider us woefully inadequate in that regard
             | too.)
             | 
             | Most of the progress, in absolute terms, with reducing
             | maternal mortality and the infant/toddler death rate in the
             | industrialized countries was actually made before
             | antibiotics were developed, in the late 19th / early 20th
             | centuries. In England in 1851 about 26% of children died
             | before the age of 5, falling to 23% in 1891, 19% in 1911,
             | 11% in 1921, 9% in 1931, and 7% in 1941 (and then we're in
             | the antibiotics era).
        
             | NaturalPhallacy wrote:
             | I personally would have 100% died at least once without
             | antibiotics. Probably several times.
             | 
             | My top three favorite human accomplishments of all time
             | are:
             | 
             | 1. printing press 2. vaccines 3. antibiotics
             | 
             | And the order of the last two is debatable.
        
             | devoutsalsa wrote:
             | Infant mortality was 165 deaths per 1000 births in the year
             | 1900, according to this...
             | 
             | https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm
             | 
             | ...I also like the link to play the video via Real player
             | in the upper left corner :)
        
         | tejtm wrote:
         | Not a biologist, but been around them long enough. I been
         | cultivating a theory that mammals strategy is more or less "go
         | fast; break things". That is, asteroid or not, we were on track
         | to out evolve everything that came before by extending and
         | exploiting explosive cell growth. No animal converts matter &
         | energy to body-mass faster than young mammals, the cold blooded
         | do not stand a chance. The competition would get larger
         | eventually only if some adolescent mammal did not eat them
         | first as peers. consider how you would bet on a 1 year old
         | raccoon vs a 1 year old alligator then again with a 5 year old
         | raccoon vs a 5 year old alligator
         | 
         | The mammal strategy traded the long game for the quick win.
         | 
         | We have all sorts of (genetic) machinery who's function is to
         | grow fast but then STOP as we can't support gigantic sizes.
         | (Maybe in part because of the quick and dirty foundations but
         | thermodynamics have scaling issues too)
         | 
         | So we need to shut of all those machines before we get too big.
         | 
         | And so here we happily sit in our bodies, our mammal factory
         | and everything is great; just don't push that big red button
         | over there, or pull that lever or that one or that one or ...
         | 
         | eventually if you live long enough some of those buttons will
         | be pushed and the mammal machinery will do what it evolved to
         | do. grow fast and break things.
         | 
         | A final observation on humans in particular, recently bipedal,
         | have not gotten all the bugs worked out on that. Deployed a
         | monkey patch for dimorphic gender singling requires cron job
         | flipping on a subset of growth machinery some years after the
         | main global shutdown but only flip them on for a season or so;
         | still seeing evidence of switch bounce issues, see ticket
         | BCRA1.
        
           | Kejiti wrote:
           | We humans are very unique though on how much care and
           | dependency babes need.
           | 
           | From an evolutionary perspective natur might have just stoped
           | after we gave birth but for humans you need to be still very
           | healthy for much longer.
           | 
           | We have a second evolution which we as a species gained due
           | to our more generic and bigger brain and therefore being able
           | to retain and learn more even through generations.
           | 
           | Whenever nature stoped we continued (glasses, cancer
           | treatment etc.)
           | 
           | I personally would not subscribe to your idea that cancer is
           | our basis and we just let loose.
           | 
           | Cancer is just one sickness of a highly complex system.
           | 
           | And after all why would longevity even be a goal for
           | evolution? It's a wishful human idea of lifing forever. I
           | myself I'm looking forward to NOT life forever and still
           | today the thought of not being able to end my life for good
           | is my worst nightmare next to loosing my mind.
        
             | lurquer wrote:
             | > We humans are very unique though on how much care and
             | dependency babes need.
             | 
             | The marsupials of Australia called and would like a word
             | with you.
        
             | zabzonk wrote:
             | All mammals care for their offspring - it's what makes them
             | mammals. Many of them do it for quite big chunks of the
             | parent's own lives.
        
           | CyanBird wrote:
           | I think it is a cute hypothesis, but I don't believe it is
           | fully functional, how would this explain megafauna? An I am
           | not talking of moose, but of ice age gigantic mammals, which
           | were just _gigantic_
        
             | reader_mode wrote:
             | They are extinct, so supporting his hypothesis ? It's not
             | like evolution is a design process in which something gets
             | "traded off" - random shit happens, something sticks.
        
           | darkr wrote:
           | > No animal converts matter & energy to body-mass faster than
           | young mammals, the cold blooded do not stand a chance.
           | 
           | Feel like Argentinosaurus might have had something to say
           | about that argument..
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Yes if you live long enough eventually some kind of cancer will
         | kill you. This is inevitable due to accumulating cellular
         | damage. Someday it might be possible to repair that damage but
         | it's not clear how.
        
         | 7952 wrote:
         | I think evolution plays a part in why older people are more
         | prone. A debilitating illness in your teens is likely to stop
         | you reproducing and is more likely to vanish. But a genetic
         | trait for cancer later in life can get past on.
        
           | siggen wrote:
           | Medawar effect
        
           | adolph wrote:
           | There must be some evolutionary fitting function that
           | mutations serve that have prevented them from being selected
           | out.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | And in very large animals there are adaptations that keep
             | cancer in check, even though they have many more cells.
             | IIRC, elephants have many copies of genes that induce
             | suicide in aberrant cells.
        
             | HarryHirsch wrote:
             | Amongst the ""hallmarks of cancer" (there's a pair of
             | papers with that title) is tissue invasion, angiogenesis
             | and immunosuppression - and there are genes for that
             | because the placenta needs those so the fetus can survive
             | and reach term.
             | 
             | What I'd really like to know is incidence of cancer in
             | marsupials, birds and fishes, one would predict it to be
             | markedly lower.
        
             | yuliyp wrote:
             | The rate of mutation is significantly lower in humans than
             | in say viruses. Being able to adapt eventually to changing
             | circumstances is valuable.
        
         | dsjoerg wrote:
         | Your objection is correct, and none of the responses you've
         | received so far seem to have understood your point. I went
         | ahead and read the actual published paper (https://acsjournals.
         | onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002...) and it is just as
         | statistically naive as the NatGeo article made it sound.
         | 
         | Let's cartoonishly oversimplify cancer so that we can see how
         | life expectancy would affect observed statistics. Let's say
         | cancer occurrence is 0% for people up to age 40, and then
         | starting on the 40th birthday, cancer occurrence is 10% per
         | year. Everyone who gets cancer dies immediately.
         | 
         | Then, imagine that life expectancy in 1500 was 25 years old,
         | standard deviation 10 years (yeah lognormal blah blah just go
         | with it). So, most people don't live to 40, but the ones who do
         | sometimes get cancer.
         | 
         | But then, after 1500, life expectancy mean increases by 0.1
         | years per year. By the year 2000, life expectancy is 75 years
         | old! Much more cancer is going to happen! Many more of the
         | deaths will be from cancer!
         | 
         | Cancer itself didn't change.
         | 
         | So, these researchers see a lower cancer rate in the bones
         | they're looking at, but they need to do some MATH on the ages
         | these bones and of modern humans to know how to compare cancer
         | rates then to cancer rates now.
        
         | GuB-42 wrote:
         | Yes, I tend to think of an increase of death by heart disease,
         | cancer and neurodegenerescence to be good news overall.
         | 
         | These diseases are essentially dying of old age. Better
         | treatment for heart disease will mechanically increase cancer
         | deaths and/or Alzheimer.
        
           | kmonsen wrote:
           | Yeah, you have to die of something and as you get old one of
           | those will hit quite likely.
        
           | Nasrudith wrote:
           | Reminds me of the actuarial sims which excluded all deaths
           | from disease, old age, and traffic accidents. Stairs were one
           | of the top killers but population tapered off even as "cannot
           | die of disease or old age" immortals although some outliers
           | could make it a bit past a millennia.
        
         | fpoling wrote:
         | Also, even if the low average life expectancy was due to
         | excessive mortality among children with chances to live up to
         | 70 once one reached 40 not much different than today, it still
         | does not imply that cancer rates were lower.
         | 
         | It could be very well that it is those people who would die as
         | newborn or children without modern medicine and access to clean
         | water have bigger chances of getting cancer with age.
        
       | rubicks wrote:
       | Before normalizing the data for life expectancy? Almost
       | certainly.
        
       | throwtheacctawy wrote:
       | Have there been any studies that disprove the correlation between
       | petro-chemical production/usage and the rise in cancer?
       | 
       | I've seen countless stats that plots petro-chemical use over
       | years, and cancer rates. The charts are identical.
        
       | szundi wrote:
       | People didn't live long enough to have cancer back then.
        
         | NaturalPhallacy wrote:
         | Very young children get cancer even today.
        
         | deep-root wrote:
         | It's a bit of a myth that humans have only had long life in
         | modern times. This is partially due to the calculated "life
         | expectancy" of many eras including infant mortality where
         | perhaps 30% of the population died at age 0.
         | 
         | If a quarter or half of your population is dying at age 0, then
         | another quarter or half must likely be living into their 70s
         | for the mean age to end up 35.
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | > This is partially due to the calculated "life expectancy"
           | of many eras including infant mortality where perhaps 30% of
           | the population died at age 0.
           | 
           | Well not really age 0, rather between 0 and 5.
           | 
           | The rest of your point stands.
        
       | newsclues wrote:
       | Did the age of oil or age of nuclear power have more unintended
       | consequences?
        
         | pronlover723 wrote:
         | Possibly no, according to the article.
         | 
         | up to 14% of deaths 400 years ago in the UK were cancer
         | according to the new research. It's currently 29% in the UK,
         | and 17% in the world. 29% is much higher than 14% but according
         | to the article people used to believe it used to be just 1%.
         | How much of that increase to 29% is because of new problems or
         | just because we live longer so cancers get the chance to kill
         | us more vs all the things that used to kill us earlier
        
         | sharklazer wrote:
         | The age of glyphosate, an antibiotic that has been sprayed so
         | much that it's testable in the rain and in sources of
         | groundwater at this point. The effects of long-term antibiotic
         | exposure are up still being learned. But it clear means a gut
         | biome disruption.
         | 
         | Thanks Monsanto. Err... Bayer (same people who sold Heroin over
         | the counter 100 years ago)
        
           | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
           | Last time I reviewed the glyphosate literature it wasn't that
           | impressive of a link between Roundup and cancer. Has anything
           | changed?
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5705608/
           | 
           | I agree Monsanto is a horrible company, but for other
           | reasons.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Glyphosate must be bad, because Monsanto is bad. It's
             | inference by moral contagion, which as everyone knows is an
             | excellent way to do science.
        
             | slumdev wrote:
             | Are you from the Agvocate "Tough Conversations" team?
        
             | titzer wrote:
             | Did you actually read the article you linked? It is
             | actually arguing that logic doesn't work.
             | 
             | > Overall, a scrutiny of the method used in these
             | commentaries by Samsel and Seneff reveals a major flaw.
             | These authors employ a deductive reasoning approach based
             | on syllogism, which is formed by two or more propositions
             | used to generate a conclusion. The first proposition is
             | generally related to glyphosate's properties (e.g.,
             | glyphosate is a chelator of Mn) and the second proposition
             | is related to human physiology (e.g., sperm motility
             | depends on Mn). From each of these pairs of propositions,
             | Samsel and Seneff conclude a causative link of glyphosate
             | with the etiology of different diseases. For instance,
             | since glyphosate is a metal chelator (proposition 1), and
             | since sperm motility depends on Mn (proposition 2), they
             | conclude that glyphosate may partially explain increased
             | rates of infertility and birth defects (13). They extend
             | this reasoning to multiple body functions to propose that
             | the dysregulation of Mn utilization in the body due to
             | glyphosate's metal chelating properties explains autism,
             | Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, anxiety disorder,
             | osteoporosis, inflammatory bowel disease, renal lithiasis,
             | osteomalacia, cholestasis, thyroid dysfunction, and
             | infertility. More recently, Beecham and Seneff have used
             | the same reasoning to conclude on a causative link between
             | glyphosate chelation of Mn and the large rise in the
             | incidence of autism spectrum disorders in children within
             | the US (35). However, there are no scientific studies
             | establishing a causative link between glyphosate and the
             | described chronic diseases.
             | 
             | They are literally saying that syllogism cannot possibly
             | work because there aren't "scientific studies". What is
             | syllogism? It's literally logic. If you then read the
             | actual article they are criticizing, there is literally
             | graph after graph establishing a strong correlation between
             | disease and glysophate use. Not only do they find
             | correlations, they reason through several causative
             | mechanisms, in extremely detail, based on chemistry, and
             | then somehow that doesn't count? That paper is absolutely
             | choc full of evidence. What more are they holding out for?
             | It's like their brain doesn't work.
        
               | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
               | I'm sorry, I don't see what you see in that article and I
               | don't think you understand it either.
               | 
               | Graphs showing increased cancer risk since glyphosate was
               | introduced is almost zero evidence that it does anything.
               | Lot of other things have happened in that same time
               | period such as increases in obesity, etc. The real way to
               | study it is to give an animal glyphosate and see if it
               | does anything to cancer rates.
               | 
               | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4819582/
               | 
               | Evaluation of carcinogenic potential of the herbicide
               | glyphosate, drawing on tumor incidence data from fourteen
               | chronic/carcinogenicity rodent studies
               | 
               | "There was no evidence of a carcinogenic effect related
               | to glyphosate treatment."
        
               | titzer wrote:
               | You seem motivated to push a particular narrative and are
               | cherry picking papers to support it, so I really don't
               | want to go back and forth anymore about this, but here's
               | a even larger meta-study that has a completely different
               | conclusion.
               | 
               | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7014589/
               | 
               | > The strongest evidence shows that glyphosate causes
               | hemangiosarcomas, kidney tumors and malignant lymphomas
               | in male CD-1 mice, hemangiomas and malignant lymphomas in
               | female CD-1 mice, hemangiomas in female Swiss albino
               | mice, kidney adenomas, liver adenomas, skin
               | keratoacanthomas and skin basal cell tumors in male
               | Sprague-Dawley rats, adrenal cortical carcinomas in
               | female Sprague-Dawley rats and hepatocellular adenomas
               | and skin keratocanthomas in male Wistar rats.
               | 
               | In fact, this paper links to some of the same studies
               | that the paper you linked to also does, with different
               | conclusions. In particular, it seems your paper was
               | extremely selective about _which_ cancers could be caused
               | by glysophate, e.g. ignoring several types.
               | 
               | > Graphs showing increased cancer risk since glyphosate
               | was introduced is almost zero evidence that it does
               | anything.
               | 
               | That's just an absurd statement, so I'll disengage now.
        
           | axguscbklp wrote:
           | >Bayer (same people who sold Heroin over the counter 100
           | years ago)
           | 
           | You say that like selling heroin over the counter is a bad
           | thing.
        
           | speedgoose wrote:
           | I thought it was no evidence of glyphosate causing cancer. A
           | bit like we don't have evidence than 3/4/5G causes cancer.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | slumdev wrote:
           | The evidence of Roundup/glyphosate's carcinogenicity is
           | playing out in courtrooms around the world.
           | 
           | And it ain't looking good for Bayer.
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | Glyphosate is a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide and crop
           | desiccant not an antibiotic.
        
       | noT1 wrote:
       | I thought it was accepted by the medical community every major
       | ailment occurred at much higher rates "back in the day". That
       | it's a case of having lacked sophisticated detection methods the
       | numbers are so low.
        
       | sonograph wrote:
       | Tangent topic;
       | 
       | I have often wondered if back pain was less likely in the past?
       | How did they manage without chiropractors?
        
         | michaelmachine wrote:
         | Chiropractors don't actually help with back pain or any of the
         | other problems they claims to help. The practice is based on
         | "re-aligning" subtle subluxations in the spine. Two problems:
         | there is no evidence that these subtle subluxations exist, and
         | there is no evidence that spine alignment even extreme ones
         | cause any ailments other than pinched nerves. Here is a good
         | summary about the history of this pseudo-science:
         | https://theoutline.com/post/1617/chiropractors-are-bullshit
        
           | agumonkey wrote:
           | so it's a high grade placebo placebo massage ?
        
         | klodolph wrote:
         | I imagine the answer is different depending on whether you have
         | agriculture. Agriculture can be back-breaking work.
        
         | throwawayboise wrote:
         | > How did they manage without chiropractors?
         | 
         | Tough it out. You had to work/farm/hunt to survive.
        
         | jeltz wrote:
         | Excerise and especially walking and running does a lot for back
         | health but at the same time they probably did a lot heavy
         | lifting and handicraft (weaving, shoe making, etc) in bad
         | ergonomic positions.
        
           | 1123581321 wrote:
           | Poor ergonomics are almost non-existent in traditional
           | cultures. This makes some intuitive sense as only in a
           | wealthy industrialized society is poor posture and back/leg
           | weakness de-correlated from surival. This is one starting
           | point to research it: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso
           | da/2015/06/08/4123147...
        
         | croes wrote:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27164956
        
         | XorNot wrote:
         | Chiropractors are charlatans so it was the same as any other
         | healing elixir scam that was being run (which are notable and
         | commonplace throughout history).
        
           | hirundo wrote:
           | My brother is a chiropractor who mostly agrees with you. He
           | thinks that most chiropractors do about as much harm as good,
           | or more.
           | 
           | Of course, he believes otherwise about his own particular
           | school of chiropractic, the Gonstead Technique. As a long
           | time beneficiary of that method I've come to agree with him.
           | It has helped me quite a bit, and the long list of his vastly
           | improved patients (many or most who are refugees from other
           | chiropractors) is impressive and convincing to me.
           | 
           | Some healers are quacks; in some disciplines, most are. But
           | that doesn't make them all quacks.
        
             | cmiller1 wrote:
             | I've done some research on this and it seems there is some
             | evidence that what chiropractors do, Spinal Manipulation
             | Therapy, is effective when combined with traditional
             | medicine and physical therapy at reducing chronic back pain
             | (and can help some people manage it with reduced pain
             | management medication which is a plus!) However if a
             | chiropractor tells you they can fix your stomach or
             | headaches or anxiety by cracking your back they're a quack.
        
               | abz10 wrote:
               | I have hEDS hypermobile Ehlers Danlos Syndrome (so does
               | possibly 2% of the population.) The vast majority don't
               | who have it don't know it. My stomach issues and
               | headaches are caused by joint problems with a likely
               | vagus nerve link. It's entirely possible that the kind of
               | people the go to chiropractors could benefit in this way.
               | 
               | They may be on to something without knowing exactly what.
        
               | hirundo wrote:
               | Strong disagree with regard to headaches. I've had
               | immediate relief from debilitating headache pain after an
               | adjustment.
        
               | abz10 wrote:
               | Have to ask, are you weirdly flexible?
        
               | hirundo wrote:
               | No.
        
         | ekianjo wrote:
         | You dont have to wonder. Look at regions with poor levels of
         | mechanization and you will find farmers in pretty bad shape.
        
         | cortic wrote:
         | >How did they manage without chiropractors?
         | 
         | We've always had charlatans pretending to have solutions to our
         | problems before chiropracty and homeopathy, we had traveling
         | salesmen peddling fish oil as a cure-all and of course the
         | power of prayer.
         | 
         | Not sure if it speaks to the gullibility of humanity or
         | craftiness of private enterprise.
        
       | throw0101a wrote:
       | Perhaps of some interest is the book _The Emperor of All
       | Maladies: A Biography of Cancer_ :
       | 
       | > _The book weaves together Mukherjee 's experiences as a
       | hematology/oncology fellow at Massachusetts General Hospital as
       | well as the history of cancer treatment and research.[3][5]
       | Mukherjee gives the history of cancer from its first
       | identification 4,600 years ago by the Egyptian physician Imhotep.
       | The Greeks had no understanding of cells, but they were familiar
       | with hydraulics. Hippocrates thus considered illness to be an
       | imbalance of four cardinal fluids: blood, black bile, yellow
       | bile, phlegm. Galen applied this idea to cancer, believing it to
       | be an imbalance of black bile. In 440 BCE, the Greek historian
       | Herodotus recorded the first breast tumor excision of Atossa, the
       | queen of Persia and the daughter of Cyrus, by a Greek slave named
       | Democedes. The procedure was believed to have been successful
       | temporarily. Galen's theory was later challenged by the work of
       | Andreas Vaselius and Matthew Baille, whose dissections of human
       | bodies failed to reveal black bile._
       | 
       | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor_of_All_Maladies
       | 
       | PBS made it into a documentary:
       | 
       | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cancer_(film)
       | 
       | * https://www.pbs.org/show/story-cancer-emperor-all-maladies/
        
       | 101001001001 wrote:
       | https://youtu.be/06e-PwhmSq8
        
       | blutfink wrote:
       | Betteridge's Law of headlines: "Any headline that ends in a
       | question mark can be answered by the word no."
        
       | mikewarot wrote:
       | When I saw a great^n grandmother's 1870 census entry, which said
       | she had 7 children, 1 of which was still alive (at 55), the
       | reality of life back then hit me hard.
       | 
       | This a meaningless question for most people, if it helps save
       | lives in the future, great.
       | 
       | I think you should also pay attention to Bret Weinstein's work on
       | telomeres and cancer. If the environmental pressures are for a
       | low age, you end up with long telomeres to allow more dividing of
       | cells to replace those damaged, however those same long telomeres
       | make you more susceptible to cancer should you live longer.
        
         | agumonkey wrote:
         | But did they die of cancer ?
        
           | newsclues wrote:
           | Most didn't live long enough to die of cancer.
           | 
           | I think infant mortality was high, and the likelihood of
           | simple infection killing you was high.
        
         | CoryAlexMartin wrote:
         | Are our telomeres long enough to allow for the development of
         | cancer, or is it necessary for the system to be overridden,
         | thus allowing cells to replicate indefinitely? My layman's
         | understanding was that benign moles were benign, and not
         | cancerous, because the telomere system was functioning normally
         | and limiting growth. Am I wrong?
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | The main thing that stops bad cells from proliferating isn't
           | telomeres, but our own immune system. NK cells (natural
           | killers) are very efficient in terminating everything
           | suspicious with extreme prejudice, so to say.
           | 
           | Successful cancer is the one that learns how to look
           | innocently, at least to the immune cells patrolling the body.
           | 
           | Successful immunological treatment (actually using mRNA
           | vaccines, that is what Moderna and BioNTech were originally
           | about; Covid vaccines are only an adaptation) teaches the
           | immune system to recognize the bad cells again based on their
           | mutations. It will then jump into action and control the
           | cancer growth.
        
             | CoryAlexMartin wrote:
             | It never occurred to me that the immune system was involved
             | in keeping cancer at bay, but that makes sense. Shows how
             | lacking my biology knowledge is!
        
           | Aerroon wrote:
           | > _Are our telomeres long enough to allow for the development
           | of cancer, or is it necessary for the system to be
           | overridden, thus allowing cells to replicate indefinitely?_
           | 
           | I'm not sure that it's actually telomere length itself that's
           | the factor. I think it's more about telomerase.
           | 
           | Telomerase is the enzyme that lengthens telomeres. In cancer
           | cells telomerase production is (usually) upregulated. This
           | leads to cancer cells being able to continue dividing without
           | telomere shortening being a problem.
           | 
           | However, this is just a guess. I'm not clear on the details
           | of the processes.
        
           | R0b0t1 wrote:
           | Moles don't stop growing primarily because of telomere length
           | but because the human genome has effective methods of
           | controlling cancer. You get cancer something like 4 times a
           | day but the cells are terminated. (It is possible telomeres
           | play some part in this, but I have never seen it proposed.)
           | 
           | What you are likely trying to broach is the question "do
           | organisms evolve to die?" the answer to which is "yes." This
           | was originally studied in pea plants. The maturation of the
           | seed pods sends a chemical signal back to the main plant
           | which induces death. It dies so that its progeny have more
           | space; this is incentivized over generations because a
           | changing genome is more advantageous to a static one.
           | 
           | Same logic can be applied to animals. It is not just that
           | there may be no pressure to evolve telomere repair, it may be
           | that telomere repair is markedly disadvantageous.
        
       | bryanmgreen wrote:
       | Probably a dumb question, but I've wondered if plastic has
       | anything to do with cancer in the modern era?
       | 
       | Mostly everything we consume these days has been touched by a
       | form of plastic.
        
         | ksd482 wrote:
         | I think it's a valid question.
         | 
         | I am wondering if microplastic is a factor in addition to air
         | and water pollution, processed/pre-packaged food.
         | 
         | Another factor maybe humankind beating/cancelling natural
         | selection due to modern medicine. So people who would normally
         | perish in olden days are living longer only to be later killed
         | by cancer.
         | 
         | There's another factor of total population. More people means
         | more diversity and more DNA copying errors? Can someone expert
         | in this field comment on this?
        
         | throwaway12319 wrote:
         | There's very extensive documentation on the carcinogenic effect
         | of microplastic and atmospheric particulate.
         | 
         | It's not a debated issue: it's well known.
        
           | pharrington wrote:
           | This presentation[1] from two years ago says two monomers
           | used in different microplastics are _known_ to be
           | carcinogenic (ethylene oxide and vinyl chloride) - other
           | monomers might be, and the polymers themselves weren 't known
           | to be carcinogenic. Do you have some more up-to-date sources
           | ?
           | 
           | [1]https://cues.rutgers.edu/2019-microplastics-
           | conference/pdfs/...
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | You know there's a public health saying about the efficacy of
       | interventions:
       | 
       | "After you save people from dying of cheap things, they start
       | dying of expensive things."
        
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