[HN Gopher] TC Energy scraps Keystone XL pipeline project after ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       TC Energy scraps Keystone XL pipeline project after Biden revokes
       key permit
        
       Author : pseudolus
       Score  : 121 points
       Date   : 2021-06-09 21:06 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | protomyth wrote:
       | Oil is all going to get transported by rail or truck. BNSF stock
       | going up should please Buffet.
        
         | newacct583 wrote:
         | Or... maybe the market will react to higher oil prices and
         | choose other fuels? Might be wanting to hodl TSLA and not rail
         | stocks.
        
         | ArkanExplorer wrote:
         | The more fossil fuel infrastructure we build out, the harder it
         | will be to make the transition to clean energy. Adding costs to
         | fossil fuels is not a bad thing.
        
           | sixothree wrote:
           | Imagine if we seized property and gave it to a private
           | company to build wind farms. I'm sure the response would be
           | worse than what happened here.
        
             | eagsalazar2 wrote:
             | Who is downvoting you? Why? Your comment is perfectly on
             | point IMO.
        
             | bigbillheck wrote:
             | Why do we have to do the 'g[i]ve it to a private company'
             | part?
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | Absolutely. We should be exploring ways to financially
           | disadvantage refineries and fueling stations as well. Have to
           | find every weak point in fossil infra to exploit towards a
           | failure mode. This drives the cost up, making electrified
           | options (that don't emit carbon) more competitive sooner.
        
             | hogFeast wrote:
             | Must be nice to be so rich that you can choose to pay more
             | for things.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | I don't have a solution for the species constantly
               | borrowing from the future. The bill comes due eventually.
               | If you think being poor sucks now, wait for water
               | shortages and crop failures. I get it, everyone wants the
               | benefits without the costs.
               | 
               | Obligatory "we should have carbon taxes and cap and trade
               | to help make the transition fair and equitable". I'm
               | aware the wealthy are culpable for higher per capita CO2
               | emissions, and as such they should bear a greater burden
               | in this regard.
        
           | make3 wrote:
           | Not sure why you're getting downvoted. Energy is a money
           | game.
        
             | fighterpilot wrote:
             | Adding costs due to adding inefficiency in the supply chain
             | is definitely a bad thing, since you could easily achieve
             | the exact same outcome with a tax instead.
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | > Oil is all going to get transported by rail or truck.
         | 
         | ... which is more expensive than transporting by pipeline, thus
         | increasing the cost of oil, cutting the development of
         | marginally-viable oil exploration projects, and hastening the
         | point at which it is uncompetitive with renewables and killed.
         | This is working exactly as intended.
        
           | vetrom wrote:
           | You could also stretch and call it an indictment of
           | externalizing oil production costs. I'm aware that building
           | and running a refinery is an extremely expensive operation,
           | to the point where it isn't economical to either mobilize a
           | refinery, or base them at the site of extraction.
           | 
           | That said, running a refinery also has local costs that are
           | usually externalized, in terms of local pollution and
           | populace movement. Canada itself though has a fairly large
           | amount of space, but perhaps a surfeit of people. Why doesn't
           | TC energy (or other Canada producers) build a refinery
           | somewhere in Canada and transport to there?
        
         | dblohm7 wrote:
         | I don't know about your second sentence, but your first
         | sentence is absolutely correct.
         | 
         | I am an Albertan who lives in Calgary, where TC Energy is
         | headquartered. I am by no means a shill for Big Oil and am
         | thankful that I do not work in that industry.
         | 
         | Having said that, I do not think that blocking the supply side
         | of the equation helps as much as certain parties believe that
         | it does. As long as the demand for oil exists, the suppliers
         | will find a way.
         | 
         | This also has side effects that some parties do not consider:
         | Railroads have finite capacity, and when more of that capacity
         | is absorbed by oil shipments, there is less capacity for the
         | transportation of other goods, like grain.
        
           | admax88q wrote:
           | Demand is partly driven by how cheap oil is.
           | 
           | There is demand for energy. Cheap oil is a great source. If
           | oil gets more expensive because it now has to be shipped with
           | more risk in smaller quantities via rail/truck, then
           | renewables can compete even better.
           | 
           | I don't think there's any realistic policy option to reduce
           | energy demand as a whole, but if we can reduce demand for
           | certain types of energy we might have a shot.
        
             | jlmorton wrote:
             | No doubt this is true, but it sure would be nice if we
             | could instead tax the oil and raise revenue for the public
             | good, rather than deliver profits to private railroad
             | companies.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | panny wrote:
             | Biden lifted sanctions on Russia to allow an undersea oil
             | pipeline,
             | 
             | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674
             | 
             | I don't think demand reduction was an objective with
             | Keystone.
        
             | skeeter2020 wrote:
             | this is only kind of true. WHile rail IS more expensive you
             | can't compare a barrel in a pipeline with a barrel on a
             | train. Pipelines need to carry diluted oil products to make
             | them flow and then sometimes return that back to the
             | source, so there's extra flow. Pipelines use far LESS
             | energy to transport which is kind of ironic; and they are
             | way, way safer.
             | 
             | I don't see this as an environmental move based on the
             | political signalling it buys and other moves made by the US
             | administration. If we agree that we want to reduce demand
             | for certain types of energy than the first thing we should
             | do is promote FF from Canada that are relatively clean,
             | highly regulated and produced by a trusted democracy over
             | the ones that will be used to fill this void from 3rd-world
             | dictators with no environmental controls.
        
           | toss1 wrote:
           | The track system of course has finite capacity, but how close
           | to that finite capacity are they running, and how much of
           | that capacity is the new oil demand?
           | 
           | If new new oil demand makes the capacity go from 9% to 12%
           | that is one thing, and quite another going from 68% to 98%...
        
           | dimes wrote:
           | The alternative methods of transport will be more expensive,
           | which will lead to a decrease in demand.
        
             | fighterpilot wrote:
             | Why not tax the pipeline to simulate that cost increase?
             | Isn't that the best of all worlds?
        
               | skeeter2020 wrote:
               | that pipeline that now will never exist was substantially
               | owned by the Canadian and ALbertan government. If it was
               | built we would see a very efficient transfer of profit
               | directly to new initiatives. Now we're no further ahead
               | AND we own a pipe-less pipeline project.
        
             | lettergram wrote:
             | Yeah, I'll just not drive to work...
             | 
             | This has never been true for consumers. The only "demand"
             | it impacts are companies, who then move their jobs to China
             | where they can use coal powered plants.
             | 
             | There is no world where this artificial increase in prices
             | is good.
             | 
             | Green energy is improving, nuclear is improving. It's
             | improving because it has to compete with alternatives, like
             | oil. Green energy is not cheap or widespread enough today
             | for consumers or industry. So it's only the people of the
             | country that lose.
        
               | gpm wrote:
               | This has always been true of consumers.
               | 
               | - Let's buy a smaller/more efficient car instead of the
               | bigger/less efficient one
               | 
               | - Let's move closer to work
               | 
               | - Let's carpool
               | 
               | - Let's not buy our teenager a car just yet
               | 
               | Etc, etc. Cost of ownership effects all sorts of choices,
               | always has, always will.
        
             | skeeter2020 wrote:
             | Except I doubt everyone is going to walk to work, eat only
             | locally grown produce in the winter (hope you like
             | potatoes), feed the world without fertilizer and replace
             | plastics with ... what, smug self-satisfaction?
        
         | ayngg wrote:
         | I think it is a case of popular politics but poor policy. It
         | appears like Canada has decided that they do not want to be in
         | resource extraction for environmental purposes, but in their
         | bid to be socially responsible, they are for the most part
         | ignoring the potential political and social fallout of such a
         | policy. Sure, it will make oil and gas operations more
         | untenable in Canada, but ultimately that probably wont matter
         | much since other producers that already dictate the price
         | through cartels will quickly fill demand to their own benefit.
         | 
         | Whether or not people want to think about it, Canada exports a
         | lot of natural resources, and if they want to stop, which is
         | fine, they better have a real plan for transitioning those
         | industries, and have an idea of what they will do in lieu of a
         | that huge chunk of their exports going away. Its really easy to
         | say something like "just transition away from oil" but history
         | has shown that it is very difficult to do, especially for a
         | province beholden to federal policy.
         | 
         | These costs are massive but are largely being ignored, or just
         | offloaded as only Alberta's problem. They are running the risk
         | of hollowing out a huge portion of the economy without any real
         | plan which has pretty severe consequences as seen in places
         | like the rust belt, which will end up sowing the seeds of
         | populist resentment amongst communities that will feel used and
         | abandoned, especially in places that already feel largely
         | ignored by federal politics like western Canada.
        
       | Romanulus wrote:
       | Like it or not, all the oil in the ground is coming up and out
       | sooner or later.
        
       | ineedasername wrote:
       | How does that work?
       | 
       | I mean, putting aside the political & scientific issues around
       | clean energy etc.
       | 
       | How does the government get to revoke a permit after significant
       | work and money was already spent based on getting the permit in
       | the first place? Does the government pay compensation? Does the
       | company have to file a lawsuit?
        
         | maxerickson wrote:
         | The text of the permit included a clause that said it could be
         | revoked solely at the discretion of the president. So all it
         | takes is the president deciding to revoke it.
         | 
         | I'm kind of fascinated that people see such a breezy permit as
         | an important factor in the decision to build something or not.
         | Of course they need the permit to construct the border
         | facility, but they aren't going to make the investment decision
         | just based on the existence of the permit.
        
         | toyg wrote:
         | Government gonna govern. Unless there are specific appeal
         | clauses in the relevant permission processes, most governments
         | can (and will) do what they want on this sort of issue. You can
         | interpret it as a prevarication over the private
         | individual/company, or as a reaffirmation of society's right to
         | change its mind.
         | 
         | This sort of scenario is precisely why private interests lobby
         | so hard to add arbitration rules to international free-trade
         | agreements, btw; they want to protect their investments against
         | changes in political winds, by moving judgements on
         | compensation to a dodgy world of ad-hoc pseudo-legal
         | structures.
        
       | bpodgursky wrote:
       | I don't like the oil economy at all, but revoking permits after a
       | company has spent billions laying pipes using government-granted
       | permits does leave a bad taste in my mouth.
       | 
       | It seems like bad precedent for the assumption to be that the
       | federal government will pull the carpet out from under your feet
       | (losing you your entire investment) whenever the political winds
       | shift.
       | 
       | Today it's an oil pipeline, but tomorrow it could be for a solar
       | installation in a nature reserve, or new hydropower, or a nearly-
       | complete nuclear power plant.
        
         | ARandumGuy wrote:
         | Are you proposing that governments should be unable to revoke
         | permits? Because that's really the only way to prevent permits
         | being revoked after a company has spent billions of dollars.
         | 
         | I think the more pragmatic answer to these companies is "don't
         | invest billions of dollars in controversial projects that can
         | be undone if your permits are revoked"
        
           | fallingknife wrote:
           | Governments should only be allowed to revoke permits in
           | narrowly defined circumstances laid out in the permit at the
           | time it is granted. Governments should have as much (I would
           | say even more) of an obligation to keep their word as any
           | other party doing business in the economy.
        
           | trixie_ wrote:
           | You contradict yourself arguing that the government should be
           | able to revoke any permit, and then saying, don't invest in
           | projects with permits which can be revoked.
           | 
           | Any project can be 'controversial' depending on who is in
           | power. The real pragmatic answer is that the government
           | should be liable for investments lost by revoking a permit.
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | > _revoking permits after a company has spent billions laying
         | pipes using government-granted permits does leave a bad taste
         | in my mouth._
         | 
         | I agree that it's not ideal, but we have to remember things are
         | changing rapidly, and we need to take decisive action if we
         | have any hope of minimizing the most severe impacts of climate
         | change.
         | 
         | With the rapid price decline in solar and batteries, the shift
         | to EVs and so many other things going on, we have to remember
         | that anyone who invests in the "old way" is taking a huge risk.
         | In this case their risk did not pay off.
         | 
         | They could have chosen not to take that risk, or invest in
         | something less risky.
        
         | dlp211 wrote:
         | Investments have risks. This is a risk. I'm so tired of how we
         | constantly frame things in terms that investments can't go bad.
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | The Keystone XL permit was originally denied, then (illegally)
         | approved by Executive Order. The nature of Executive Orders is
         | that they can be, and frequently are, tossed out by the next
         | guy in office. This isn't a big secret, so I don't have a ton
         | of sympathy for anyone who "spent billions laying pipes" under
         | a permit granted by EO. If they wanted a lower risk of losing
         | everything, they should've waited for the standard permit
         | process, instead of gambling on the EO and that Trump would win
         | another term.
        
           | defaultname wrote:
           | It was originally denied by political decree.
           | 
           | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/06/obama-
           | re...
           | 
           | It was political from end to end, and was never denied on
           | fundamental grounds, but instead has been governed by
           | protectionism. What made it particularly farcical is that at
           | the same time Obama was pontificating about the horror's of
           | Alberta's oil and turning an environmental new leaf, US shale
           | oil exploration (just as bad in every dimension) was growing
           | at a staggering pace, and is now multiples the output of
           | Alberta's oils ands.
           | 
           | The quicker we transition to renewables the better, but the
           | farce of Keystone was always just politics.
        
         | zbrozek wrote:
         | This is key. It erodes trust in institutions, in this case the
         | government itself. I personally wish it weren't permitted in
         | the first place, but revoking the permit afterwards is the
         | worst possible outcome.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > I personally wish it weren't permitted in the first place,
           | but revoking the permit afterwards is the worst possible
           | outcome.
           | 
           | Why?
           | 
           | It was obvious from the start of the planning that this
           | project was at risk from political intervention given the
           | continuous protests and the general political landscape
           | (being blocked by Obama and then unblocked by Trump, with
           | Democrats calling for the reversal of the decision).
           | 
           | It was obvious that long-term political trends are leading
           | towards ecological conservation, that international treaties
           | limit CO2 emissions and that oil consumption will only go
           | downwards given the rise of viable electric car models.
           | 
           | The companies behind Keystone XL accepted this risk, and if
           | they now go bankrupt or face massive losses as a result of
           | not accounting for _obvious_ risks, I don 't shed any tears
           | for them. They were aware, never forget that.
        
             | zbrozek wrote:
             | The loss of trust in the finality of approvals is the key
             | thing we should be shedding tears over. It would obviously
             | have been far better not to permit it in the first place.
             | Suppose a big offshore wind project gets underway now and
             | an opposing government wins the next election - now there's
             | precedent to just pull the plug.
             | 
             | Or at a much smaller scale, suppose you've just won
             | permission to build a house and a new city council is
             | elected and revokes your permit. How much are you going to
             | trust your government after that?
             | 
             | It also widens the door for more forms of corruption.
             | "Shame if that permit were to suddenly evaporate..."
             | 
             | If you don't want carbon emissions, tax them to death. Or
             | don't permit projects that produce them. But don't revoke
             | permits of projects you've approved!
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | You missed some details there. It was approved under the
             | Obama administration before it was rejected by the state
             | department on the vague grounds that it is "not in the
             | national interest." The state department was only involved
             | since it crossed the border with Canada, and for deals with
             | close allies like Canada, this approval is typically a
             | formality. It sets a bad precedent when the government
             | capriciously steps in to block a deal that has been years
             | in the making because of political pressure.
        
           | sixothree wrote:
           | Taking people's property and giving it to a private company
           | erodes trust as well.
        
             | panny wrote:
             | It certainly does,
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London
        
           | yongjik wrote:
           | If this erodes trust in the government's commitment to
           | allowing new fossil fuel projects, I'd consider that an
           | absolute win.
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | Inducting this lesson only to the most convenient level for
             | your argument is intellectually dishonest to the point that
             | I really hope you understand, deep down, that you are
             | playing semantic games and don't actually believe this
             | argument.
        
               | yongjik wrote:
               | Sure, it's convenient that I agree with the decision now,
               | but why would that be intellectually dishonest?
               | 
               | If the government overturns a previous decision and
               | blocks an oil pipeline, I'll be happy. If the government
               | overturns another previous decision and blocks a wind
               | farm, I'll be angry. There's nothing contradictory about
               | this. Arguably, reducing it into "the government changed
               | its mind on something; imagine it does on (something
               | different)" _is_ also playing semantics. You can 't take
               | decisions out of real-world context: there's always
               | context.
        
           | cryptoz wrote:
           | A government that ignores climate change loses far more trust
           | than one who pays attention and acts in response. Permitting
           | the building of new pipelines is absolutely a sign of an
           | untrustworthy government.
           | 
           | A government needs to be able to change its mind and always
           | act in the best interests of the people. Building a pipeline
           | because some rich corporation has some sunk costs is insane.
           | 
           | Edit: Also, I only addressed the environmental issues, but
           | the article also cites "U.S. landowners, Native American
           | tribes". Don't you think its also good that they get a say in
           | what gets built? And that it is likely that the early
           | construction was done without full understanding by those
           | groups impacted directly?
        
           | happytoexplain wrote:
           | >revoking the permit afterwards is the worst possible outcome
           | 
           | It seems like many people feel that it's the second to worst
           | possible outcome.
        
           | munk-a wrote:
           | I think it's important to also realize that Canada
           | domestically (outside of Alberta) has been strongly opposed
           | to expanding natural resource exportation[1]. The Kinder
           | Morgan pipeline through BC was ~shut down~[2] - as have been
           | multiple propositions to get the oil out through the maritime
           | provinces. If Alberta had a coast they would never consider
           | the keystone pipeline as an option but this is sort of a
           | effort of last resort - every direction except south wants
           | nothing to do with this and the constantly shifting political
           | winds in America mean it's extremely unlikely that this
           | project would actually be complete while the tar sands remain
           | profitable.
           | 
           | I think it's a bit unfair to talk about this permit being
           | withdrawn without warning when literally every other route
           | open for export has been shut down - it's like asking your
           | dad for candy after your mom said no, they might go along
           | with you for a bit but the outcome is likely to be swayed by
           | the same basic facts.
           | 
           | 1. Existing transportation is also highly problematic, one of
           | the really big questions for Canadians here is whether the
           | additional safety of pipelines is worth the cost to the
           | environment, we've specifically paid that lack of safety cost
           | several times including https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C
           | 3%A9gantic_rail_disaste... and more generally
           | https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/lac-megantic-
           | crude-... this is very much not a simple issue in Canada.
           | 
           | 2. Oh hey - no it isn't - this is still actively ongoing as
           | pointed out by the comment below
        
             | mig39 wrote:
             | Isn't the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion still going
             | ahead?
             | 
             | Didn't the Canadian federal government actually buy the
             | pipeline company, and offer to indemnified any investor for
             | any delays caused by other governments?
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | Apparently yes, it's unshutdown for the moment - but the
               | NDP provincial government is still impeding it. It's been
               | up and down so many times now I'd lost track.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > It erodes trust in institutions
           | 
           | So the sequence of events here was:
           | 
           | Permit denied in normal administrative course.
           | 
           | Permit approved, illegally reversing factual determinations
           | without sufficient support by subsequent administration,
           | resulting in the approved permit being struck down by the
           | courts, which was maintained through extensive litigation
           | after the initial decision.
           | 
           | Permit reapproved by executive order bypassing the
           | environmemtal and procedural law constraints that resulted in
           | the previous approval being revoked.
           | 
           | Permit rerevoked by executive order undoing the previous
           | order.
           | 
           | Its certainly not a history that inspires trust in
           | institutions generally, but focussing on the last step for
           | that criticism is...bizarre.
        
         | ryanong wrote:
         | I would not have been revoked if it wasn't illegal.
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | That's... a wild contortion of what it means to be legal.
           | When the government grants a permit for me to do something,
           | the sane thing is to assume that it is a legal thing to do.
           | 
           | You can redefine, or re-interpret the law later to make
           | something _now_ illegal, but that absolutely does not mean it
           | was illegal at the time. That's 1984-style history rewriting.
        
             | takeda wrote:
             | Previous permit was also revoked by court. The analogy
             | someone else already provided is apt.
             | 
             | Kid asked dad if he can get a candy after mom said no. Then
             | started crying when mom came and said it's not allowed.
        
         | JuettnerDistrib wrote:
         | > or a nearly-complete nuclear power plant.
         | 
         | Nah, that would never happen.
         | 
         | "Construction of the plant at Zwentendorf, Austria was finished
         | but the plant never entered service. The start-up of the
         | Zwentendorf plant, as well as the construction of the other 2
         | plants, was prevented by a referendum on 5 November 1978, in
         | which a narrow majority of 50.47% voted against the start-up."
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zwentendorf_Nuclear_Power_Pl...
        
         | ikiris wrote:
         | They should have known going in it was a sham permit. When you
         | take advantage of one of the most corrupt and inept
         | administrations in modern times, you get what you pay for.
        
         | maxerickson wrote:
         | Revocation is one of the first terms in the permit:
         | 
         | https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/04/03/2019-06...
         | 
         | (in that permit, it comes right after revocation of an earlier,
         | similar permit)
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | Yeah. Would you put private money into infrastructure in the US
         | after this? I wouldn't.
         | 
         | That leaves just government-funded infrastructure, with all the
         | efficiency that usually brings...
        
           | nielsbot wrote:
           | The pipeline wasn't for public use, so I don't think talking
           | about public infrastructure applies here.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | From dictionary.com: "The fundamental facilities and
             | systems serving a country, city, or area, as transportation
             | and communication systems, power plants, and schools." In
             | this sense, pipelines are infrastructure.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | eagsalazar2 wrote:
         | Live by the sword, die by the sword. These companies have been
         | playing politics and lobbying all along themselves. And they
         | only _got_ the permit to begin with because of political winds
         | shifting. This is the risk they take (like drilling in the
         | arctic) when you make big bets on things that are extremely
         | politically controversial and arguably not in the public
         | interest (certainly not in the interest of the people whose
         | lives are being turned upside down by eminent domain to make
         | this possible).
         | 
         | So in that sense your solar installation example isn't
         | appropriate because generally solar installations aren't that
         | controversial, aren't built on the broken backs of people who
         | lived there, aren't against the public interest, and don't
         | require millions in lobbying $$ to manipulate politicians to
         | get it done to begin with.
        
         | frankydp wrote:
         | Or more micro, the reversion of your homes building permit and
         | HVAC as the unit you installed is now out of code, and some
         | force of the government would be used to enforce your
         | compliance, such as taxes or fines.
        
       | eloff wrote:
       | As a Canadian, born in Calgary, Alberta, I'm saddened to hear
       | this. But it seems to be part of the platform of the Democrats.
       | 
       | As a citizen of Earth, I'm of mixed feelings. On the one hand
       | heavy crude from the tar sands, which is some of the most
       | polluting oil on the planet, because it requires so much energy
       | to extract, will keep shipping by rail to the United States. That
       | involves more spills than a pipeline and burning yet more fuel.
       | That's bad.
       | 
       | On the other hand that makes the prices higher and both
       | constrains the volume of output and the price at which it's
       | profitable to extract. Both things that mean more of that tar
       | sands oil will stay in the ground. That's good.
       | 
       | On the other, other hand - more tar sands oil staying in the
       | ground means more oil from elsewhere in the world, often from
       | politically unstable or unfriendly regimes will replace the oil
       | the US otherwise would have imported from Canada. That's
       | potentially bad.
       | 
       | I'm not sure which outcome is better for Canada, the USA, or the
       | world. I'm pretty sure neither Obama, Trump, not Biden had any
       | accurate idea either.
       | 
       | Edit: and the downvotes are because you disagree with my economic
       | analysis? Or because you think any of those politicians actually
       | have a solid, fundamental analysis including unintentional
       | consequences? Get real, they did it for political reasons, that's
       | why they came out on different sides of the issue based on party
       | lines. Actually judging by the downvotes, I think it was a smart
       | political move. I really wish HN would require a comment with a
       | downvote, even if it's only visible to the OP.
        
         | gautamcgoel wrote:
         | Yeah. My first reaction is that this is great news, but as you
         | say, the oil may now come from Brazil, Iran, etc. On the whole,
         | I think it's a win for the environment, but I would like to see
         | a detailed analysis of the predicted effects of this decision
         | on oil exploration, extraction, and consumption.
         | 
         | I do feel a bit sympathetic for the company driving this
         | project. They invested billions of dollars and over a decade of
         | time only to see the project killed at the last minute. This is
         | a consequence of our erratic and unpredictable political system
         | - every four years we seem to completely change energy policy.
         | It's the price of our democracy, but I'm sure it's frustrating
         | for CEOs.
         | 
         | Edit: It's frustrating to see the parent comment get downvoted.
         | If you disagree, explain why in a comment - no need to bury a
         | perfectly reasonable perspective.
        
         | pseudolus wrote:
         | It's hard not to be sympathetic to those Albertans whose lives
         | will be impacted by this decision. However, for too long Canada
         | has relied on extractive industries leading to a mild case of
         | Dutch disease. Perhaps the loss of Keystone will jump-start
         | Alberta's nascent start-up scene and other non-polluting
         | sectors of its economy.
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | Alberta fundamentally has to shift gears - just like Saudi
           | Arabia. The world will move on from fossil fuels and they had
           | better have a plan to transition.
           | 
           | Norway has been handling their fossil fuels remarkably
           | intelligently.
        
             | jgon wrote:
             | Norway is an entire country that has just slightly more
             | people than the province of Alberta, which is to say that
             | is it much smaller than Canada, while having oil reserves
             | equal to or greater than those in Alberta. Alberta should
             | obviously have been more diligent in saving up oil revenues
             | generated, but this ignores the fact that a huge amount of
             | oil revenues generated in Alberta have gone to help the
             | rest of the country develop as well. Roughly 250-300
             | billion dollars from Alberta has transferred to the rest of
             | the country since Alberta's discovery of oil, which would
             | essentially give funding equivalent to the Norwegian
             | sovereign fund. So when people say "where did all the money
             | go?" the answer is that it went to hospitals in Chicoutimi,
             | roads in Neepawa, schools in Battle Harbor, etc, etc.
             | Trying to compare sovereign Norway, with a single province
             | in a confederation is always going to give a skewed view of
             | what Alberta should or should not have done with its
             | resource wealth.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | > Norway has been handling their fossil fuels remarkably
             | intelligently.
             | 
             | How so? Oil production is ticking back up and is higher
             | than any time since about 2010.
        
           | munk-a wrote:
           | Most of Canada, outside of Alberta, has long transitioned
           | away from extraction dominant industries. There still is a
           | whole bunch of it around - but, in BC it accounts for 5.7% of
           | the economy and in Canada at large all natural resource
           | extraction only accounts for 10% of the economy. The majority
           | of Canada's economy is now service oriented.
        
             | jgon wrote:
             | This claim is nominally true, but leaves out a metric boat-
             | load of context, in the classic "the truth, the _whole
             | truth_ , and nothing but the truth" sense. BC only has
             | resource extraction take up 10% of it economy, but it is
             | more dependent on real estate (aka flipping houses) as a
             | percentage of its economy that Alberta is dependent on Oil
             | and Gas. Flipping real estate isn't exactly a great
             | foundation for an economy, but sure it has transitioned
             | away from extraction.
             | 
             | Secondly, the majority of Canada's economy is service
             | oriented, but due to the way Canada is structured, the
             | super-majority of the transfer payments that the federal
             | government makes to the various provinces comes from
             | resource extraction generated revenues.
             | 
             | The following statements are not meant to be value
             | judgements, they are just simple statements of fact that
             | should give color to the context that is missing from the
             | parent comment. For non-Canadian HN users, in order to
             | guarantee a relatively equal standard of living for
             | Canadian citizens regardless of where they happen to live,
             | the federal government distributes billions of dollars
             | every year to various provinces, taking from the more
             | wealthy provinces and helping shore up the budgets of the
             | less wealthy provinces. These revenues have been generated
             | in overwhelmingly large part by resource extraction, and
             | the service oriented economies of other provinces show 0
             | possibility of taking up the slack for these revenues
             | should resource extraction end, they simply don't generate
             | enough surplus on a per-capita basis. Without these
             | revenues large portions of Canada would face absolutely
             | devastating cuts to government revenues and thus services,
             | and frankly no government has really put forth any sort of
             | solution to this, outside of larger deficits on a temporary
             | basis. How Canada navigates this difference between its
             | aspirations, a service oriented non-resource economy, and
             | the reality on the ground, an absolute dependence on
             | resource revenues for current quality of life, is probably
             | the biggest question it will face in the 21st Century.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | At least when it comes to BC and Ontario we've got some
               | insanely high margin businesses kicking around now in the
               | form of tech companies and banking and investment - I am
               | quite skeptical of your assessment that these industries
               | would fail to carry the homesteading supplements and,
               | honestly, I'm not really certain how much sense those
               | supplements continue to make. I don't know if they're
               | significantly impacting Canada's ability to project
               | territorial claims at this point - most border issues
               | outside of underwater resources and transportation
               | control (i.e. the northwest passage for shipping) seem
               | pretty well settled. Does supporting population living in
               | such inhospitable areas really make economic sense to
               | Canada?
               | 
               | For non-Canadians, if you live in certain economic
               | development zones the Canadian government effectively
               | pays you a bunch of money annually (Northern Residents
               | Deduction) to just keep living there. We just saw how
               | vulnerable these communities are to natural disasters
               | like a pandemic - they also often suffer food security
               | problems during blizzards and rail outages[1]. If there's
               | an economic reason to support communities up there I'm
               | all for it, but I really don't see why we want to go out
               | of our way to subsidize that life choice.
               | 
               | Also specifically on the topic of BC real-estate-as-a-
               | service - it's pretty fucking insane and I have no idea
               | why this market is sustaining itself at this point, we're
               | all due for a shock one of these days that will hurt
               | really bad. That said - BC's economy is still only ~20%
               | driven by the real estate market and, if we saw a price
               | drop, we'd likely see a lot more labour market
               | accessibility go along with it.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/churchill-
               | rail-servi...
        
         | munk-a wrote:
         | > On the other, other hand - more tar sands oil staying in the
         | ground means more oil from elsewhere in the world, often from
         | politically unstable or unfriendly regimes will replace the oil
         | the US otherwise would have imported from Canada.
         | 
         | This statement has some inaccuracies in it, it is true that it
         | will literally result in more oil from other places, but, given
         | supply and demand, it will result in less additional oil from
         | other sources.
         | 
         | Whenever a cheap source of a good is eliminated the average
         | production price of that good is increased (assuming there is
         | an exhaustible supply of that good at that price) so the
         | removal, or even inconveniencing of access, to tar sands
         | extract will cause an up-tick in prices overall and a likely
         | unnoticeable dip in supply.
         | 
         | Additionally, as a Canadian myself, the Alberta oils sands have
         | recently contributed strongly to an economic crisis in Calgary
         | as extraction profitability has sharply declined. There is a
         | lot of oil still left up there but Alberta needs to act now,
         | while it has the funds to do so, to transition their economy.
         | It is not a feasible long term revenue source.
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | > This statement has some inaccuracies in it, it is true that
           | it will literally result in more oil from other places, but,
           | given supply and demand, it will result in less additional
           | oil from other sources.
           | 
           | Given strongly inelastic demand, I would say very marginally
           | less.
           | 
           | > Whenever a cheap source of a good is eliminated the average
           | production price of that good is increased (assuming there is
           | an exhaustible supply of that good at that price) so the
           | removal, or even inconveniencing of access, to tar sands
           | extract will cause an up-tick in prices overall and a likely
           | unnoticeable dip in supply.
           | 
           | I think we're saying the same thing?
           | 
           | > Additionally, as a Canadian myself, the Alberta oils sands
           | have recently contributed strongly to an economic crisis in
           | Calgary as extraction profitability has sharply declined.
           | There is a lot of oil still left up there but Alberta needs
           | to act now, while it has the funds to do so, to transition
           | their economy. It is not a feasible long term revenue source.
           | 
           | Yes, they had better get serious about transitioning the
           | economy away from oil before Calgary becomes a ghost town.
           | People sure aren't there for the weather.
        
             | munk-a wrote:
             | Hrm, my wording might have been a bit off itself but I
             | mostly just wanted to highlight and rebut what could be
             | worded in your original statement as a sort of fatalist
             | "Even if we reduce what's coming from Canada it won't
             | effect overall production". I do agree that the impact
             | won't solve global warming or potentially cause a
             | reflection in gas pump prices, but the supply is definitely
             | elastic and while the demand is inelastic in the long term
             | short term price fluctuations do actually cause short term
             | fluctuations in demand so there is a fair bit of elasticity
             | there as well.
             | 
             | People will find ways to reduce their car commute when
             | prices spike and, especially, oil power plants will defer
             | operation to cheaper (possibly less clean :sigh:)
             | alternatives.
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Given how large the oil market is and how generally
               | inelastic the demand is, I would wager any overall
               | reduction in demand will be marginal. There won't be no
               | effect, but I don't see there being a large effect
               | either.
        
           | verelo wrote:
           | The oil from the tar sands isn't clean, there's no great
           | reasons for it to come from Canada (I'm Canadian too before
           | anyone jumps on that). Sure, it's extracted under better
           | working conditions than many places in the world, but the
           | damage to the environment is substantial, it's a very energy
           | intensive process and furthermore it is much worse in terms
           | of impact and energy use than almost all other means of
           | obtaining oil.
           | 
           | Alberta seems to be expecting this oil thing to keep the
           | province going forever; it is over. Diversify, try new
           | things, for your sake and the sake of the rest of Canada.
           | Please stop expecting this to get better. 2015 was a warning,
           | it's now officially ending and the time to start moving on
           | has passed, every day not diversifying the economy of Alberta
           | is just a day of economic procrastination.
           | 
           | Edit: Sure energy security, keep some for us, but let's not
           | make it the backbone of our economy.
        
             | eloff wrote:
             | > there's no great reasons for it to come from Canada
             | 
             | Energy security, not propping up authoritarian regimes with
             | terrible human rights records, not requiring military
             | interventions to protect a stable supply of oil.
             | 
             | Maybe not good enough reasons to change the balance, but
             | reasons nonetheless.
        
               | hilbertseries wrote:
               | The US is the largest oil producer in the world.
        
               | YarickR2 wrote:
               | Yet Russia is the largest oil supplier to the US
        
               | nielsbot wrote:
               | Alternative: phase out oil. Also solves those problems.
        
               | verelo wrote:
               | This. To me it's like being a paper form printing company
               | when computers were just becoming mainstream. Your days
               | are numbered, deal with it and survive or don't and you
               | wont.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | A lot of innocent people are going to feel a lot of pain
               | when that happens (along with completely guilty people of
               | course) - I don't think it's avoidable myself but I can
               | definitely sympathize with the people fighting to try and
               | cushion the transition.
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and
               | accomplish that, the world will keep using oil.
               | 
               | Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow
               | transition not a switch we can flip.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | I think that economies are stubborn beasts, if they can
               | avoid change they will. I don't think it's reasonable to
               | expect any sort of energy transition to occur gracefully
               | while oil is in supply. As the price goes up we'll see
               | some industries priced out and over time we'll see early
               | adopters convert but we're not going to see a smooth
               | transition for the populace at large.
        
               | SECProto wrote:
               | > Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow
               | transition not a switch we can flip.
               | 
               | And trains lend themselves much better to slow declining
               | transition than a new pipeline. Can be used for other
               | cargo; are a bit more expensive so they are a mild
               | financial disincentive; the contaminated material (tanker
               | cars) are by definition mobile and therefore easier to
               | deal with at EOL.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Do you trust the Kenney government to diversify properly?
             | All we've seen so far is them waste a bunch of money on
             | Hydrogen.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | I trust them more than I trusted Clark, but that's not
               | saying much.
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Not as far as I can throw them.
        
             | jgon wrote:
             | The economy of Alberta depends less on revenues from oil
             | and gas than the economy of neighboring British Colombia
             | depends on real estate (aka flipping houses), and is
             | roughly as diversified as Ontario (in terms of % of economy
             | coming from various sectors) which is the other heavy
             | weight economy in Canada.
             | 
             | People keep saying that Alberta needs to diversify as
             | though this is some sort of epiphany that the province
             | refuses to have, but it honestly just reveals the ignorance
             | of the person making that claim regarding the current
             | economic state of Canadian provinces.
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Yet Alberta is feeling economic pain in a way that
               | Ontario and BC do not seem to share.
               | 
               | They aren't diversified enough.
        
               | jgon wrote:
               | Yeah because housing hasn't crashed (yet). Also Alberta
               | is feeling economic pain only in comparison to the crazy
               | boom years prior. It is still literally the highest
               | GDP/capita of any province, its unemployment rate ranks
               | it 5th amongst Canadian provinces, its government is
               | still the least indebted on a per-capita basis of any
               | province, it has the highest labor force participation
               | rate of any province, etc, etc. The fact that Alberta is
               | still paying federal transfer payments to the rest of
               | Canada should be sufficient shorthand to convince you
               | that the economy is not as dire as you would think when
               | viewing it from the outside.
        
         | whatever1 wrote:
         | Not sure why they are downvoting you. People here seem to not
         | get the concept of supply and demand. Specially when the demand
         | is inelastic in the short-medium term
        
         | tamersalama wrote:
         | Coincidentally, four major Canadian producers are uniting in an
         | alliance for net-zero by 2050. The four are responsible for 90%
         | of oil-sands production [1]. To me, this makes Canadian energy
         | a more responsible source compared to many US-based and other
         | international producers. [2]
         | 
         | [1] https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/major-canadian-oilsands-
         | producers...
         | 
         | [2] https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/oil-companies-
         | net-...
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | Well, I don't think we can take all the credit. Suncor is a
           | US company, my dad used to work there during the takeover
           | when it was Petro Canada.
           | 
           | Edit: I take that back, it's always been a Canadian company.
           | I'm thinking about something else, there was another takeover
           | or merge with a US company back before 2000. That's before
           | the Suncor merger.
           | 
           | Very heartening to see though.
        
           | cmehdy wrote:
           | Net-zero amongst companies is often a matter of paying a tax
           | on what you still emit or shifting the accounting of
           | emissions to not fully measure the entirety of your emissions
           | (or to offload that onto other parts of society).
           | 
           | It's fine to encourage companies to try and do things like
           | that, but it's also important to keep that congratulatory
           | tone in check when it comes to a world that still
           | incentivizes profits singularly and doesn't necessarily put
           | the price of ecologic externalities that they might deserve.
           | 
           | Net-zero sounds perhaps cool but there should be some
           | important education done for everybody to understand that
           | it's far from Gross-zero (or near zero), which would be much
           | closer to what we actually need to avoid some pretty
           | cataclysmic collapses sooner than most people realize.
        
         | kokanator wrote:
         | > and the downvotes are because....
         | 
         | The downvotes are because they disagree with your politics.
         | 
         | The tough part is all your statements hold truth. We must face
         | that if we want to find real answers.
         | 
         | Down voting is supposed to be used to indicate a comment has no
         | relevance to the conversation. Conversely, each of your
         | statements must be part of the conversation.
         | 
         | [ upvoted ]
         | 
         | ( instantly downvoted )
        
           | WalterGR wrote:
           | _Down voting is supposed to be used to indicate a comment has
           | no relevance to the conversation. Conversely, each of your
           | statements must be part of the conversation.
           | 
           | [ upvoted ]
           | 
           | ( instantly downvoted )_
           | 
           | This site's guidelines: "Please don't comment about the
           | voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes
           | boring reading."
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | It's odd because I'm all over the place on the political
           | spectrum, and I didn't even take a side here other than to
           | discuss how it makes me feel thinking about the place of my
           | birth, which will suffer, and expressing my uncertainty in
           | whether this is a good or bad thing overall - which is more
           | honest than what any of those politicians have done.
           | 
           | Maybe people don't like nuance and prefer to see the world in
           | black and white where it agrees or disagrees with their
           | views. I don't like to believe that's true, but it probably
           | is in general.
        
             | happytoexplain wrote:
             | It seems unfair and unnecessarily hostile to speculate
             | about a subset of people you just addressed ("Maybe people
             | don't like nuance and prefer to see the world in black and
             | white") when the only thing you know about them is that
             | they disagreed with you for some reason. It is of course
             | natural to be annoyed by downvotes, but the urge to start
             | painting yourself as a victim and the anonymous mass as
             | unthinking tends to create a really bad atmosphere for
             | discussion.
             | 
             | Now, if you wanted to criticize the downvote mechanism in
             | general, maybe it would be considered off topic by HN
             | rules, but it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable.
             | 
             | Edit: Also, perhaps some of your downvotes are due to your
             | commenting on your own downvotes. Personally, I always
             | downvote those kinds of comments (including the self-
             | fulfilling-prophecy version: "I'll be downvoted/flagged for
             | this, but..."), _even_ if I find the rest of the post
             | interesting, or completely agree with them. But I have no
             | idea if other people do that.
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Other reasons I might speculate about are just as
               | uncharitable. Such as, they have no understanding of
               | microeconomics as applied to a good with inelastic
               | demand. Or they just read the first sentence and down
               | voted and moved on.
               | 
               | At best I think one could argue I phrased things such
               | that it rubbed people the wrong way. Possibly the last
               | comment about politicians.
        
           | rcurry wrote:
           | I agree - it's a well reasoned post and I enjoyed reading it.
        
         | raclage wrote:
         | > I'm not sure which outcome is better for Canada, the USA, or
         | the world. I'm pretty sure neither Obama, Trump, not Biden had
         | any accurate idea either.
         | 
         | > Or because you think any of those politicians actually have a
         | solid, fundamental analysis including unintentional
         | consequences? Get real, they did it for political reasons,
         | that's why they came out on different sides of the issue based
         | on party lines.
         | 
         | Or maybe Obama, Trump, and Biden had different ideas about what
         | "better for the USA" meant that led to them making reasonably
         | rational but different decisions? Maybe, maybe not. But I'm not
         | sure your assumption that all three of those presidents have a
         | worse understanding of this issue than you do is justified.
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | > Or maybe Obama, Trump, and Biden had different ideas about
           | what "better for the USA" meant that led to them making
           | reasonably rational but different decisions?
           | 
           | Yes, that's basically what politics is about in a nutshell,
           | making different tradeoffs based on values. I'm not sure any
           | of them actually had a sufficiently detailed analysis or
           | model to justify having any certainty in their decision.
           | 
           | > But I'm not sure your assumption that all three of those
           | presidents have a worse understanding of this issue than you
           | do is justified.
           | 
           | Don't get me wrong, I don't understand the issue either. I'm
           | just honest about that fact and merely espoused why it's a
           | complicated dilemma. This is all unintentional consequences
           | and it's not clear which was the best call for the
           | environment, the countries involved, or the world at large.
           | 
           | I would have liked to see an in-depth study of the tradeoffs
           | and a rational decision based on that rather than a political
           | decision, which seems to be what we got all three times.
        
         | tachyonbeam wrote:
         | We all need to transition to renewable energy. It's not good
         | for Canada to become more invested in the oil economy, just as
         | electric cars, trucks and renewables are starting to boom. It's
         | neither good for you environmentally or economically if you
         | have a 10+ year horizon.
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | I think you just read the first sentence of my comment.
        
           | treeman79 wrote:
           | So we continue prop up terrorist regimes for the next few
           | decades.
           | 
           | Electric is approaching winning on its own merits. Giving
           | billions to horrible people in the mean time is not an
           | acceptable solution.
           | 
           | Oil independence is great for America and Canada.
           | Independence "from" oil is a separate if related matter.
           | 
           | A half way point is to allow drilling and pipeline and add
           | taxes to local oil and major tariffs on external oil.
           | 
           | We get oil independence, alternative tech will be encouraged
           | to replace expensive oil. Only losers are people that use
           | oil.
        
             | tachyonbeam wrote:
             | Isn't the US already a net exporter of oil at the moment?
        
               | treeman79 wrote:
               | https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41754
               | 
               | That is a recent thing. It can easily go the other way
               | again.
        
         | edoceo wrote:
         | I only downvote cause of your comments about voting. Like the
         | guidelines say "that shit boring".
         | 
         | Your other points were creative even if a little /edgy/ and
         | could(will?) get conversation on their own.
        
         | marricks wrote:
         | Our current government structures seem incapable of planning
         | more than 1 year out. Without radically higher oil prices it
         | seems unlikely we'll see the large scale changes needed.
         | 
         | Shut down as many pipelines as we can, stop producing oil,
         | build solar farms, build wind farms, build nuclear, everything
         | should be on the table and done simultaneously if we want our
         | grandchildren to have a live remotely similar to ours.
         | 
         | The framing of governments and media seems like only half steps
         | are possible, but those steps will still kill us.
        
           | throwaway316943 wrote:
           | I wish we had a more informed perspective on oil. Yes it's
           | very important that we move individual and public
           | transportation to electric now that we have the batteries to
           | do so. Yes we need to switch energy production to renewables
           | and zero carbon generation. Yes we need to get as much heat
           | generation as possible for homes, commerce and industry
           | switched to electric. All of these have in common the fact
           | that we should not be burning oil. But, and this is a big
           | but, we still need oil to produce a vast array of materials
           | and compounds that our civilization depends on. Medicine and
           | agriculture are two huge users that we cannot do without. We
           | can't shut down all oil production and drive the cost through
           | the roof without destroying healthcare and creating famine.
           | Please argue rationally, frame combustion of oil as wasteful
           | while lionizing responsible usage that does not contribute to
           | atmospheric CO2 and improves the human condition.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Alberta oil sands oil is the most expensive and dirtiest
             | oil source on the planet. So when oil demand drops, the
             | Alberta oil sands will be the first place to stop
             | operating. Plastic will be made from the cheapest oil.
             | 
             | It's also possible that eventually we'll make plastic using
             | CO2 as the feed-stock rather than oil.
        
             | marricks wrote:
             | The lack of productivity in the conversation comes from
             | voices like yours which compromise themselves internally
             | before even facing the opposing side.
             | 
             | Obviously if all oil companies magically shutdown today
             | human society would be cataclysmically affected. That would
             | never going to happen short of a "Childhood's End" style
             | alien invasion. Any change, even with extreme external
             | pressure, would be gradual.
             | 
             | That's why one must always advocate for the position purely
             | and without compromise. Shut down this pipeline, shut down
             | the next one that comes up. Etc etc.
             | 
             | "Reasonable" perspectives have not helped the planet at all
             | in the past 50 years.
             | 
             | ==========
             | 
             | EDIT:
             | 
             | One more thought, let's consider how EFFECTIVE the oil
             | industry has been. Continuous profits, continuous increase
             | in production, great subsidies. How did they do this?
             | 
             | Well, for one thing, they knew about global warming was
             | caused by burning fossil fuels decades before admitting it
             | publicly. They argued from the strongest framing of their
             | position: "fossil fuels don't cause global warning so
             | nothing should change"
             | 
             | It's only in the past decade or so that they put on a face
             | of caring about renewables. That's because public pressure
             | grew enough that the strongest portrayal of their side was
             | acting like they're already doing everything they can.
             | 
             | Moral of the story, if you want to be affective don't
             | compromise. The benefit of caring about the environment is
             | at least we don't have to lie about our side, just boldly
             | state truths and what should happen.
        
               | stale2002 wrote:
               | > That's why one must always advocate for the position
               | purely and without compromise.
               | 
               | If that is your perspective then don't expect anyone to
               | compromise with you in return.
               | 
               | You drive away both the opposition, as well as people in
               | the middle, like myself, with policy positions like the
               | one you are giving.
               | 
               | You could not hope to convince much of anyone in the
               | middle, if you are unwilling to recognize opposing
               | arguments, or address points of criticism.
               | 
               | If you won't budge an inch, then you should expect to
               | lose to status quo bias, from people who would just
               | choose to do nothing, instead of taking on an extreme
               | position.
        
         | epigen wrote:
         | That sums up the dilemma.
         | 
         | Killing the pipeline will help but not in a vacuum. Continued
         | policy/pressure needs to be applied to move away from oil,
         | which is probably best for the sake of the world.
        
       | koolba wrote:
       | This is a disaster, fiscally, environmentally, and politically.
       | It's a waste of all the money spent thus far, it will lead to an
       | increase of statistically more dangerous transportation methods,
       | and raise the price of other foreign oil imports to compensate.
       | All around just bad policy.
        
         | krastanov wrote:
         | Oil being less convenient and more expensive is a win if you
         | are a green energy absolutist (like me). It makes other energy
         | sources that much more enticing.
        
           | fighterpilot wrote:
           | It's simply ridiculous that there's going to be oil brought
           | in on trucks which will be significantly less efficient than
           | a pipeline.
           | 
           | The only sensible thing would be to have a pipeline, with
           | zero trucks doing that work in its place, plus a carbon tax
           | on top of that oil to adjust the price.
           | 
           | The carbon tax could be applied uniquely to oil brought on
           | the pipeline so as to equalize the cost of that oil with that
           | which will instead be brought over on trucks.
           | 
           | Which means no misaligned incentives to increase oil
           | consumption but also no inefficiency from trucks doing the
           | work in its place. That tax revenue is effectively new wealth
           | since it represents the saved inefficiency of the alternative
           | of having no pipeline.
        
       | InTheArena wrote:
       | Here is your Friday afternoon, dump it when no one things we are
       | looking.
       | 
       | I do believe that we should be doing alternative energy at this
       | point - but it's also clear that this particular decision has a
       | lot of negative side-effects (including greater exports over
       | trains and trucks, and increased dependency on oil-fracking and
       | bad middle eastern regimes).
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | What do you mean Friday/no one's looking?
         | 
         | I understand traditionally that's when you break bad news, but
         | this is the middle of the week.
        
         | newacct583 wrote:
         | I don't know that that's so clear at all. It's an oil pipeline
         | to import canadian oil for domestic refiners. Domestic refined
         | petroleum consumption peaked in 2018 and has been going _down_
         | (and of course has cratered during the pandemic).
         | 
         | There's actually no good case to be made for this thing at all
         | from current data. You have to project an increase in demand
         | that doesn't seem to be coming.
         | 
         | Bottom line: this pipeline was proposed in the middle of the
         | post-peak-oil boom in oil prices. It made sense in an imagined
         | world of ever rising oil prices and ever largers SUVs. The
         | world kinda moved on.
         | 
         | Also:
         | 
         | > increased dependency on oil-fracking
         | 
         | This is tar sand oil. While not every drop necessarily
         | qualifies, depending on your definition, this is process-
         | extracted secondary petroleum. It's very much in the same
         | category as "fracked" oil in terms of extraction efficiency.
        
         | jonas21 wrote:
         | It's Wednesday.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | invisible wrote:
       | There is no mention in the article about the previous permit
       | being revoked by the court for being illegal.
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | Could you supply some specifics/citations for the previous
         | permit being revoked for being illegal?
        
           | invisible wrote:
           | Sure.
           | 
           | https://www.npr.org/2018/11/09/665994751/judge-puts-
           | keystone...
           | 
           | Edit (add NEPA info): https://www.epa.gov/nepa/what-national-
           | environmental-policy-...
        
             | kokanator wrote:
             | It doesn't say it is illegal rather that the analysis
             | wasn't as thorough as necessary.
             | 
             | >In Thursday's ruling, Morris wrote that the State
             | Department's analysis of potential environmental effects
             | fell short of a "hard look" on the effects of current oil
             | prices on the viability of Keystone, cumulative effects of
             | greenhouse gas emissions, cultural resources and potential
             | oil spills.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > It doesn't say it is illegal
               | 
               | Yes it does.
               | 
               | > rather that the analysis wasn't as thorough as
               | necessary.
               | 
               | It was revoked because it was illegally issued (in
               | violation of the National Environmental Policy Act and
               | thr Administrative Procedure Act) because the analysis
               | was not sufficient to meet the legal requirements for
               | issuing it.
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-
               | action...
               | 
               | Section 6 doesn't say any of that. (b) talks about an
               | exhaustive review, but it just says it would be bad for
               | the climate and economy.
               | 
               | The text is the same in the Federal Register. https://www
               | .federalregister.gov/documents/2021/01/25/2021-01...
        
               | [deleted]
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-06-09 23:00 UTC)