[HN Gopher] Apple is building the metaverse substrate
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Apple is building the metaverse substrate
        
       Author : grork
       Score  : 155 points
       Date   : 2021-06-21 18:51 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.codevoid.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.codevoid.net)
        
       | Ankintol wrote:
       | Slightly adjacent to the article, I don't think Apple cares all
       | that much about the AR metaverse/ecosystem.
       | 
       | My own prediction, using many of the same data points as the
       | author, is that Apple is trying to create a suite of features
       | that act as a sort of Software Personal Assistant. For years
       | Apple has consistently put in better sensors and larger TPUs than
       | strictly necessary for the expected lifetime of the device. We're
       | already seeing some of the results of this with the Health app.
       | 
       | Apple understands the profit potential of platforms, so they'll
       | make some of the data that enables these features to App
       | Developers and that in turn may enable AR, but I doubt any Apple
       | executives are seriously focused on bringing AR capabilities to
       | developers.
        
         | dwhitney wrote:
         | I hope you're wrong. I understand that the technology for the
         | dream that "Google Glasses" was selling isn't quite there, but
         | I hope Apple has a research team moving closer and closer to
         | it.
        
           | Ankintol wrote:
           | They may still make that, but I suspect developers will not
           | have full access to the full power of the platform.
           | 
           | A thought I should have fleshed out in the above post: the
           | kind of sensor data that enables AR can also be used to
           | deduce a great deal of personal information[0]. With Apple
           | taking a strong position on privacy I suspect they will make
           | only a limited subset of data available to developers.
           | 
           | [0]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332386880_Priva
           | cy_I...
        
           | root_axis wrote:
           | "Not quite there" is an understatement. The advancements
           | necessary in optics, battery technology and GPU performance
           | for a practical AR wearable are considerable, this is without
           | considering the need for a fashionable form factor and
           | practical heat dissipation. IMO we're at least a decade out
           | from a serious MVP.
        
           | dodobirdlord wrote:
           | Non-gaming AR tech will have to be extremely good out of the
           | gate to dodge the issues that sank Google Glasses. I suspect
           | it will remain an active research project for as long as it
           | takes, and in the meantime Apple will chart their product
           | roadmap along a sequence of technologies that they can be
           | confident of having ready on 1-5 year timescales.
        
       | SheinhardtWigCo wrote:
       | Is this just a fancy/confusing of way of saying "Apple is
       | building an AR ecosystem"?
        
         | ronyfadel wrote:
         | Yes. Apple could be building AR/VR hardware, but if you're
         | convinced they are, then you'll start to mentally force
         | everything they publish as a building block for said hardware.
        
         | SamBam wrote:
         | And is the "AR ecosystem" the "metaverse" or the "metaverse
         | substrate?"
        
       | vincent-toups wrote:
       | I'm really looking forward to not engaging with any of this stuff
       | at all!
        
       | kyle-rb wrote:
       | Some of this stuff is cool, and I can see how it might fit
       | together (although I doubt half of it will pan out). But some of
       | it just seems like nothing.
       | 
       | The Shazam stuff seems very limited in use case, and I'm annoyed
       | at "AppClips" because they should just be websites.
       | 
       | Notes+Spotlight+Shared with you all seem like they're inventing
       | new paradigms to avoid ever adding a user file system on iOS,
       | since Apple is opposed to that. It's possible that those new
       | paradigms will be great, but I think they'd be better if Apple
       | gave up a little control.
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Files_(Apple)
         | 
         | That's existed for 4 years. A user file system is effectively
         | available on iOS, even if it's not exactly what you might
         | expect coming from a desktop OS.
        
       | mncharity wrote:
       | > SwiftUI [...] doesn't feel like an AR platform component
       | (Where's the third dimension?).
       | 
       | I'm unfamiliar with SwiftUI, but fwiw, I found the extensions
       | needed for CSS3D to support AR to be surprisingly small.
       | 
       | A few years back, having a custom browser-based VR stack with
       | passthrough AR, I sketched a talk for the BostonVR meetup, to
       | give around April Fools. It would have purported to be an
       | introductory onboarding demo, of newly available CSS3D extensions
       | for AR. With support for placement in realspace, billboards, HUD
       | overlays, integrated multiple displays, position aware and 3D
       | displays. The extension needed was surprisingly minor. The talk
       | would have been basically "introductory CSS positioning, in a
       | slightly enriched context", which I expected to be quite
       | believable, followed by a "surprise! - the making of the demo
       | spike". I don't quite remember why it didn't happen.
       | 
       | > 2(.5)D experiences
       | 
       | Shallow-3D UIs seemingly have a lot of potential, but don't get
       | much discussion.
       | 
       | Meta: I wish HN discussions around AR were of higher quality.
       | It's be clear for years that Apple was pursing this. Being
       | unfamiliar with the Apple ecosystem, I'd have liked to see more
       | discussion of what those pieces and their characteristics might
       | suggest about the future. Or for instance, of whether Apple is
       | doing any CEP complex event processing, or retraction of app
       | state changes, to support input with diverse latencies.
        
       | narrator wrote:
       | The funny thing about Apple is how people confabulate mythical
       | powers to it. I can't wait for Apple iTulpa[1].
       | 
       | Jokes aside. What is the mission statement here, what is the
       | dream? Make you never want to interact with the real world again?
       | Help you manage your to do list better?
       | 
       | I feel there was much more of a mission statement for mobile back
       | when everyone was stuck on public transit and at the office for
       | hours every day. You could finally make your life on transit and
       | at the office more meaningful by integrating your personal life
       | with that through your phone.
       | 
       | What's the dream now? I don't get where all this is going unless
       | it's like you're never going to leave your house again, so escape
       | into VR.
       | 
       | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulpa
        
       | zelon88 wrote:
       | This guy is way too excited. He's thinking he's gonna get
       | Cyberpunk 2077 but in reality he's getting a combo of Wall-E and
       | The Final Cut.
        
       | rektide wrote:
       | Apple's Bluetooth-LE tags don't seem to be mentioned but to me
       | this is one of the most notable beachheads for Apple to mix the
       | metaverse with physical reality. we still don't see a ton of
       | uses, but there's something super enticing about being able to
       | casually discover digital things amid the physical. I'm not
       | surprised good adoption has been slow, that we don't have a ton
       | of neat use cases to wow people, but also: I was shocked as heck
       | to see Google retreat from their open standards competitor,
       | Physical Web/Eddystone.
       | 
       | Apple also makes good use of Bluetooth for airdrop & wifi
       | password sharing, something else google is light-years behind in.
       | 
       | Good writeup, interesting, even if it seems a bit (quite)
       | oversold to me. Makes me think of Benjamin Bratton's The Stack,
       | the many tiers that compose the digital.
        
         | RandallBrown wrote:
         | That was touched on in the "Find My" section.
        
           | rektide wrote:
           | > "Find My"-style devices will help tighten up the mapping of
           | the physical world to enable augmentation -- really this is
           | part of the platform substrate, but the same tech underlies a
           | key bridge between physical and virtual.
           | 
           | The section has good stuff in it, but to me it came off as
           | me-centric, as about high end experiences like VR, accurate
           | spatial systems.
           | 
           | And that feels like it's a very different piece of the
           | platform than what I was talking about, which is beacons that
           | we can leave for each other. Getting to a bar & having the
           | menu advertise itself. Art installs that come with
           | interesting mini-sites on the browser, or which are cross-
           | media. QR codes are the closest thing we have today, but QR
           | codes require very explicit intent to use, and I've long been
           | interested in the promise of more ambient computing, of
           | seeing the numerous micro- / edge- clouds about me, & seeing
           | what they might offer.
           | 
           | I didn't get any of that from the Find My. I'm looking for
           | Find Your, I guess. Or Share Mine. Which Physical Web did,
           | which Apple's iBeacons continue to do.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | ryanmarsh wrote:
       | The conclusion almost followed the points except for one major
       | failure of imagination: VR. Apple will release a VR product but
       | it can only do so after the migration to Apple Silicon. Anyone
       | familiar with M1 performance and VR games on Intel will
       | immediately see why. Did anyone else notice/remember what
       | specific use case Apple touted for the the newest generation of
       | Mac Pro? VR content creation. Very resource hungry. Apple can't
       | release the VR device we know they could, without giving content
       | creators the tools. What makes VR more than just a gaming
       | product? Giving everyone with an Apple laptop the ability to
       | create content for a meta verse. You might be thinking Ready
       | Player One, I'm thinking more like a better Roblox. There's
       | massive ARR potential in a VR metaverse ecosystem where everyone
       | can be a content creator / inhabitant. Apple is the only company
       | that could put it all together and make it work from soup to
       | nuts.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | This is the feature set needed for Hyperreality.[1] Which is hell
       | with interactive overlays.
       | 
       | AppClips. Drive-by installs. What could possibly go wrong?
       | 
       | [1] https://youtu.be/YJg02ivYzSs
        
         | walterlb wrote:
         | Hell is exactly how I would describe this.
         | 
         | Well-made, cool video though!
        
         | asadlionpk wrote:
         | This is what Android equivalent would look like.
        
       | jccalhoun wrote:
       | Apple keeps trying to make AR a thing. Bless their heart...
        
         | dang wrote:
         | " _Please don 't post shallow dismissals, especially of other
         | people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something._"
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
           | shirhan wrote:
           | I learned Apple keeps trying to make AR a thing, but it's not
           | a thing.
        
         | SheinhardtWigCo wrote:
         | Bless their heart, and their $204b in cash, and their team of
         | 1000+ engineers dedicated to AR.
        
       | andrewmcwatters wrote:
       | Something that's dawned on me for the last few years is that
       | Microsoft basically settled on the idea that the modern operating
       | system is effectively done, which I suppose is true, but then
       | they stopped creating technologies to build on top of Windows all
       | together.
       | 
       | It was as if they said, OK, here's the supermarket, now vendors,
       | create stuff and we'll stock the shelves.
       | 
       | Except everyone publishing software today that isn't a game
       | developer is targeting the web. Which means the best software
       | you're going to get for Windows that isn't long-lived incumbent
       | software like Creative Cloud is going to be... over Google Chrome
       | (or Microsoft Edge).
       | 
       | OK, but Microsoft is in the best position to create great,
       | integrated, first-class technologies that build on how great
       | Windows is. But they don't. I have mixed feelings about this,
       | because when Apple does it, they basically put people out of
       | business.
       | 
       | But here's the thing, in 10 years time, you're going to have
       | Windows, which is still just, and will continue to be, Windows.
       | And macOS, and iOS, and tvOS, and every other Apple OS, is going
       | to be so much more. And they already are so much more.
       | 
       | For those who haven't experienced it yet, or can't afford Apple
       | products, they're missing something that just hasn't happened in
       | computing in any other period of time I can immediately think of.
       | 
       | Or, idk, I'm blind because I think Apple products are so great.
       | The lattermost is probably more likely.
        
         | outside1234 wrote:
         | That's because they got sued for antitrust the last time they
         | tried to do this.
         | 
         | And given that they don't sell hardware, there isn't money in
         | it. And if there isn't money in it, it isn't worth getting sued
         | over trying it.
         | 
         | So here we are.
        
         | an_opabinia wrote:
         | > and every other Apple OS, is going to be so much more...
         | [non-Apple users are] missing something
         | 
         | Android hasn't really faced many obstacles in cloning things.
         | Consumers in China, for example, still buy Android phones,
         | despite iPhones and despite having enough money for those
         | iPhones. I don't know if anyone is missing out on all that
         | much. I wouldn't say they are like, unenlightened. If anything
         | the Android ecosystem has led to more digitization of life in
         | China than in America, far faster - it looks way more like the
         | metaverse in terms of computing taking over daily life than
         | here, which is to say that you're really far off the mark in
         | terms of what really matters.
         | 
         | Anyway, this metaverse stuff. It blows. Roblox blows. Second
         | Life blew. World of Warcraft is great, but you can hear about
         | why it's great direct from the source
         | (https://www.media.mit.edu/videos/conversations-2014-05-07/)
         | and it's all about really carefully curated and purposeful
         | design choices, the user driven parts of it are not why the
         | game was so good.
         | 
         | Existing metaverse experiences blow not for lack of immersion!
         | So the technology will change little of that. If Roblox was
         | photoreal, it would still blow. Minecraft AR didn't matter.
         | None of that shit matters.
         | 
         | A company that barely supports 1 external video card vendor,
         | that releases shit graphics APIs, that sues game companies -
         | they're not going to break ground in the "metaverse." Apple
         | Arcade games are good, but that's because they are fighting the
         | real antagonist, the real horror show: free to play gaming.
         | That is the antagonist of the metaverse, having to be free and
         | monetize people via Robux or V-Bucks or whatever it is that
         | activates neurons in a 10 year old's brain. It's got nothing to
         | do with the technology.
        
         | yellowfish wrote:
         | > Or, idk, I'm blind because I think Apple products are so
         | 
         | > great. The latter most is probably more likely.
         | 
         | Isn't Microsoft already shipping AR headsets to the US Army? if
         | anything they are the leaders in the space
         | 
         | anyway, as far as "Metaverse" goes I'd argue we already have
         | multiple and the presentation layer is just gradually changing
        
         | salamandersauce wrote:
         | Like what exactly? What is Windows missing? They have a way to
         | integrate with Android phones, I can share my Galaxy's screen
         | with PC and use apps that way even. They are working on AR
         | stuff with Hololens and VR. You can do wireless screen sharing,
         | sync your Microsoft Edge tabs, do 3D audio in games.
         | 
         | I was all in the Apple ecosystem the past couple years except
         | for the Watch. And I'm struggling to think of something that's
         | impossible to do with Windows and non-Apple devices besides
         | Airdrop and that didn't even work half the time between my
         | iPhone and Mac mini. Sidecar is a cool feature to have built
         | in, but apps like Duet and Astropad do the same thing...
         | 
         | And I don't think it's a bad thing that MS doesn't Sherlock
         | devs either...
        
           | arghnoname wrote:
           | Windows is a gigantic market so in general the vast majority
           | of things one could do in MacOS are going to end up being
           | possible in Windows (assuming Apple even was the first to
           | market some feature in the first place).
           | 
           | It's almost unthinkable that some in-software feature that a
           | lot of people like can be done in an Apple OS and not a
           | Microsoft/Android OS.
           | 
           | The question is not whether it can be done, but how easily it
           | can be done. If you have to jailbreak your phone or cobble
           | together a collection of different applications to simulate
           | the experience, for 80%+ of people that's basically
           | equivalent to impossible.
        
             | greggman3 wrote:
             | you mean like play all the VR games or too AAA games in
             | general?
             | 
             | I own both. From my POV I'm able to do more on Windows even
             | if I prefer MacOS for day to day use and iOS for my phone
             | (though again can do more on Android)
        
             | salamandersauce wrote:
             | You don't have to jailbreak your phone or root it to
             | accomplish these things. Stuff like MS "Your Phone" for
             | integrating your Android phone and Windows is built into
             | some devices like those from Samsung and Windows will even
             | walk you through the steps at first boot. Most of this
             | stuff is built in and I'm not entirely sure app installs
             | are onerous. 80%+ seems a little ridiculous.
        
           | thekyle wrote:
           | I'm curious what you use the Galaxy screen share feature in
           | Windows for, because I've tried it a few times and always
           | found it to be a bad user experience.
        
         | tyingq wrote:
         | On the other hand, Microsoft did a fairly decent job capturing
         | cloud revenue with o365 and Azure. Apple is leaving most of
         | that on the table.
         | 
         | Apple has cloud services, but they are, for the most part,
         | intended to help sell more iPhones. Can't argue with the
         | Apple's approach since it works well revenue wise though.
        
         | chaostheory wrote:
         | > Or, idk, I'm blind because I think Apple products are so
         | great. The latter most is probably more likely.
         | 
         | As a fellow cult member who hasn't drunk enough kool aid, Apple
         | products have been losing their luster in recent years.
         | 
         | Apple TV still doesn't have hands free voice control. Fire TV
         | has had this for years now. Using your iPhone isn't great
         | because it doesn't have the microphone setup to consistently
         | hear your voice well. Does Siri and Apple TV finally work
         | together with Home Pod like how Google TV uses smart Google
         | speakers?
         | 
         | Apple Macbooks have suffered immensely with the near useless
         | touch bar and terrible keyboard.
         | 
         | Thinness as a feature seems to override everything else. I
         | don't care about having a thin desktop. I want something I can
         | open and replace parts in without paying about $10k.
         | 
         | The list goes on. Including how there's still no word on the VR
         | / AR unit, while Facebook mops the floor.
         | 
         | The only light in the darkness is the M1 chip.
        
         | edem wrote:
         | Can you name a few examples? From what I've seen I can now run
         | a Linux within my Windows, that solves my long-standing gaming
         | vs developing problem. I can finally run Docker properly on my
         | Windows box, and literally everything else that was problematic
         | before. I'd pick Windows over MacOS 12 times out of 10.
        
           | flatiron wrote:
           | I was a contractor for Apple for 4 years and when I left a
           | few months ago my new company let me choose windows or mac
           | and I chose windows (mainly spite) but it's really good now.
           | I live in the command line and having full blown Ubuntu
           | inside windows is great. Docker works as expected. On top of
           | that ms office is wayyyyyy better on windows than mac. I
           | won't be switching my personal devices off arch anytime soon
           | but I think windows is a better development platform than mac
           | now (can't believe I just wrote that)
        
             | edem wrote:
             | I also couldn't believe it when I realized it a while ago!
             | Also...I hear Arch more often lately. Why would someone
             | choose Arch over let's say Ubuntu? I'm curious. Never used
             | it.
        
               | flatiron wrote:
               | Arch is great for desktops and laptops because it's
               | rolling and always up to date with upstream. Install it
               | once. Update it once a week. Never have to do anything
               | else. They also have a user repository where they pretty
               | much have everything. There's nothing on my laptop that
               | isn't version controlled with their package manager.
        
         | gilbetron wrote:
         | Seems like you are just really in deep with Apple. I've used
         | Apple professionally for over a decade now, and personally for
         | a long time before that (Mac SE was my first). When I'm on my
         | personal laptop (windows/linux) I miss absolutely nothing about
         | Apple. Well, that's not _quite_ true, I appreciate the
         | uniformity, but the uniformity costs too much in terms of a
         | walled garden, which is an antithesis to how I think things
         | should be.
         | 
         | I think Microsoft does far more interesting research than
         | Apple, which largely (but not completely) just buys new ideas
         | like Cisco. An effective strategy, granted. I feel MS has a
         | feel for where development is going better than Apple, with VS
         | Code and the purchase of Github.
         | 
         | "missing something that just hasn't happened in computing in
         | any other period of time I can immediately think of" is just
         | hyperbole. To me, Apple has always been the company that takes
         | other people's ideas and polishes the hell out of them - which
         | is amazing, but when I look at my 30+ year tech career, I don't
         | get very excited about Apple.
        
           | Terretta wrote:
           | Keep hearing about "walled garden" as though it's a _bad_
           | thing -- Archibald Craven doesn't want Mary to play?
           | 
           | The word "garden" suggests bespoke curation for appreciation
           | and abundance, while "walled" suggests within this boundary
           | the experience is purposefully tended and safe.
           | 
           | The Japanese put them in the middle of their homes. The
           | British write children's literature set in them. Just look --
           | the very idea of a walled garden is _lovely_ :
           | 
           | In film: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/5b/52/41/5b524125c48b
           | 35bfe0ca...
           | 
           | In life:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Maytham_Hall#Gardens
           | 
           | In my experiences with the non metaphorical variety, most
           | anyone who can afford one prefers it.
        
             | llbeansandrice wrote:
             | I think HN and similar value free (as in freedom) and
             | openness of a system a lot more. So "walled garden" is a
             | bit of a buzzword against those ideals.
             | 
             | > bespoke curation...purposefully tended and safe
             | 
             | These ideas are antithetical to what many on HN seem to
             | want. I personally love Apple products, but walled gardens
             | are great when you don't bump into the walls all the time,
             | which a lot of other people seem to do.
             | 
             | In these cases (wall bumping) I think it's reasonable to
             | want alternatives. But there are fanatics and anti-fanatics
             | that I think skew any discussion about Apple.
        
         | john_minsk wrote:
         | Interesting. So you think they are not even working on making
         | this thing faster? Shame. Windows needs some performance boost.
        
         | carl_dr wrote:
         | > OK, but Microsoft is in the best position to create great,
         | integrated, first-class technologies that build on how great
         | Windows is.
         | 
         | For a few years now there has been some noise that Apple's Pro
         | hardware lineup isn't Pro, that macOS is becoming more locked
         | down and more iOS-like, that the software is buggier than ever,
         | and - until they dropped their App Store split to 15% for small
         | developers - that 30% was too high a price.
         | 
         | With WSL, and VScode and GitHub Microsoft are making a (messy,
         | so far) play for developers. But as you point out, they didn't
         | take it to the nth degree and nail the execution. I wonder if
         | they've missed the opportunity now.
         | 
         | I develop for web on macOS, and have all Apple hardware, so
         | maybe I'm missing some of the other things Microsoft have done.
         | 
         | Maybe it is the lack of verticality MS have, and the
         | integration between devices, something they can never match
         | Apple on that means there hasn't been the transition they were
         | aiming for. That's why I've not switched.
         | 
         | I'll be very interested to hear what people think about this.
        
           | tomjen3 wrote:
           | I would say MS nailed VScode remote development. It is
           | seriously, seriously good. I used it during WFH and while VS
           | didn't work nearly as well as the version of IDEA I was using
           | the remote part worked so well I would forget I was working
           | remote.
        
         | nextstep wrote:
         | >> Except everyone publishing software today that isn't a game
         | developer is targeting the web.
         | 
         | What?
         | 
         | Even your example (Creative Cloud) has an iOS and iPadOS app.
        
           | andrewmcwatters wrote:
           | Sorry, to clarify, anyone targetting Windows users, is
           | probably only doing so by proxy, because there's no
           | compelling reason to create a first-class Windows desktop
           | application over just a web app.
        
             | nextstep wrote:
             | Aah I see what you mean
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | I think you are right on this and it's a real bummer.
             | 
             | In Ellen Ullman's book _Life in Code_ , she writes about
             | Whitfield Diffie's (of Diffie-Hellman fame) speech at the
             | 2000 Computers, Freedom, and Privacy conference in Toronto.
             | 
             | > "We were slaves to the mainframe! he said. Dumb
             | terminals! That's all we had. We were powerless under the
             | big machine's unyielding central control. Then we escaped
             | to the personal computer, autonomous, powerful. Then
             | networks. The PC was soon rendered to be nothing but a
             | "thin client," just a browser with very little software
             | residing on our personal machines, the code being on
             | network servers, which are under the control of
             | administrators. Now to the web, nothing but a thin, thin
             | browser for us. All the intelligence out there, on the net,
             | our machines having become dumb terminals again."
             | 
             | I've been thinking about this a lot lately. Smart people
             | like Diffie saw this happening more than 20 years ago.
             | 
             | It's really made me rethink web apps that don't need to be
             | web apps (including stuff like electron). Like you said,
             | Microsoft has thrown in the towel and it seems now Apple is
             | really the only platform making a compelling argument for
             | native apps and keeping the computer _smart_.
        
         | smoldesu wrote:
         | Apple products have every right to be great: after all, Apple
         | is the largest company in the world. But they also have a duty
         | to extend their services, one that they have sorely neglected
         | for the past 15 years. I wouldn't be so angry at Apple if
         | things like Airdrop, Handoff and Airplay were all open
         | protocols. The only reason Apple _doesn 't_ extend these
         | protocols is to have leverage over their competitors. It's not
         | like any of the aforementioned technologies are impressive,
         | either: they were all preceded by Warpinator, XDG and MPRIS,
         | respectively. So Apple embraces these open-source concepts,
         | extends them with proprietary interfaces and then extinguishes
         | the source... where have I heard this one before?
        
           | jolux wrote:
           | EEE is about actual intellectual property and compatibility,
           | not just concepts. As far as I know AirDrop, Handoff, and
           | AirPlay are proprietary all the way down.
        
         | fossuser wrote:
         | I think Stratechery accurately called Microsoft's strategic
         | shift: https://stratechery.com/2018/the-end-of-windows/ around
         | the time that Nadella showed up to save them.
         | 
         | I think Apple is better positioned with total vertical
         | integration to lay the ground work for the next platform (AR)
         | and has been doing so for years now. They'll ship some hardware
         | when the time is right.
         | 
         | They've repeated this approach since the iPod successfully,
         | never first to market, but laying the ground work before
         | shipping the best in class product.
         | 
         | FB (Zuck specifically) recognizes the next platform and Oculus
         | is a bet to win it. Their issue is they don't have their own
         | phone OS, the Oculus platform they have to build up from
         | scratch (which they've done a decent job doing). They also have
         | a brand issue (I personally dislike their ad-driven business
         | model).
         | 
         | It'll be interesting to see what hardware Apple ships - the UI
         | potential for AR is enormous and very cool. I know Zuck sees
         | this and is public about it, Apple is acting in such a way that
         | they definitely see it - they're just quiet about it until they
         | ship.
         | 
         | Looking at tiny glass displays will be a funny anachronism of
         | our time.
        
           | timmg wrote:
           | > the Oculus platform they have to build up from scratch
           | 
           | It's Android, right?
        
             | chaostheory wrote:
             | It's Android.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | germinalphrase wrote:
           | That AR will be visual first is the eventual obvious thing,
           | but the soft start is audio based. Siri and transparency mode
           | on airpods is the unacknowledged AR present that hasn't been
           | fully unveiled.
        
           | slver wrote:
           | Well, it's easy to get excited fantasizing about the future,
           | but your predictions are about as likely to occur as the
           | flying cars we're flying around right now.
           | 
           | In fact none of the major platforms we use today was just
           | predicted and constructed. They've evolved and shown their
           | benefits naturally and not entirely in expected ways. No one
           | actually planned the web to be an application platform. It
           | was a university paper exchange program. And the Internet
           | before it was a military communication network.
           | 
           | Your predictions about the grand future of AR remind me of
           | the excitement around VRML couple of decades ago.
           | 
           | "Looking at stale 2D web pages will be a funny anachronism of
           | our time" we thought. Turns out making existing content more
           | fancy in 3D wasn't that useful, it actually was more
           | cumbersome both to create and to use, so 3D web pages died
           | before they even had a true chance to live.
        
             | fossuser wrote:
             | You can see the direction things are heading.
             | 
             | The iPhone was a UI step change improvement over previous
             | 'smart phones' and the app ecosystem came out of that.
             | 
             | The ground work being set in the OP's post is about getting
             | things ready for hardware that can then take advantage of
             | it.
             | 
             | It's possible to make predictions based on trends and the
             | capability of hardware that becomes possible when it
             | previously wasn't:
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTdWQAKzESA (Also see:
             | Douglas Englebart's the Mother of All Demos:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mother_of_All_Demos).
             | Xerox PARC too - computing history is filled with examples
             | of people pulling the future down because they recognized
             | what was possible.
             | 
             | Just because 3D websites are a bad UI doesn't mean looking
             | at little hand-held glass displays is the best one. Likely
             | in AR we'd still pull up flat 2D websites a lot of the
             | time, you just wouldn't need to pull out a little glass
             | display to do it.
             | 
             | Michael Abrash used to have a blog post about the hardest
             | AR problems when he was at Valve (he's at Oculus now):
             | drawing black, and latency - the latter is mostly a
             | hardware constraint - I'm not sure if anyone has solved the
             | former (the magic leap sucked).
             | 
             | If the hardware is possible, the UI benefits seem big.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | I don't know if you remember Google Glass was a thing,
               | and turned out that wearing glasses on your face 16 hours
               | a day is far more annoying than those "little hand-held
               | glass display" you're trying way too hard to be
               | dismissive of.
               | 
               | Google Glass didn't die because it wasn't AR, it died
               | because wearing glasses all the time wasn't practical.
               | 
               | Not practical technologically in terms of battery life,
               | weight, and not practical in terms of simply that you
               | don't need to interact with some digital UI every waking
               | moment of your life.
               | 
               | Also while in our imagination we can conjure up virtual
               | displays in AR and use them for complex UIs, actually
               | waving your hands in empty air, aside from being super
               | weird, is also super inconvenient, compared to handheld
               | multitouch glass.
               | 
               | You're not making AR predictions based on "current
               | trends". You think you are. Instead you're trying to draw
               | a straight line from the present reality to your favorite
               | sci-fi movies that have shaped your idea of what the
               | future is going to be like, while also skipping over all
               | the pesky details that can trip up that idea from concept
               | to realization.
               | 
               | In other words, same reason why everyone was dead set
               | flying cars are coming. And yeah, the generic "no one
               | believed in XEROX PARX and no one believed in trains and
               | car engines, no one believed in airplanes" argument was
               | brought up about flying cars. Turns out that this
               | argument is not an automatic win for believing whatever
               | you wanna believe is coming.
               | 
               | Just because someone didn't believe in airplanes doesn't
               | mean I can't roll my eyes at predictions that faster-
               | than-light travel is just around the corner.
        
               | fossuser wrote:
               | Google Glass died because the hardware sucked, the UI and
               | utility were not there. The general magic device was also
               | a failure, but mobile computing is obviously not.
               | 
               | The timing has to be right and the hardware has to be
               | possible - if you're too early it won't work.
               | 
               | Flying cars is a bad comparison - they mostly don't exist
               | in widespread use because of reasons not related to
               | computing. Risk, fuel, control, etc. - even then rich
               | people do have helicopters (though that's mostly
               | different).
               | 
               | Pointing out failed predictions does not imply that all
               | predictions are similarly wrong. In computing - the
               | examples I showed (and there are others) are more
               | relevant.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | > Google Glass died because the hardware sucked, the UI
               | and utility were not there.
               | 
               | And nothing has changed about that.
               | 
               | > Pointing out failed predictions does not imply that all
               | predictions are similarly wrong. In computing - the
               | examples I showed (and there are others) are more
               | relevant.
               | 
               | Most predictions are actually wrong. Let's see the
               | hardware that "doesn't suck", let's see the UI and
               | utility that "are there" and then I'll tell you if we
               | have a winner or not.
               | 
               | Right now we have nothing except bold fantasies powered
               | by sci-fi movies full of cheap hologram VFX.
        
               | fossuser wrote:
               | > And nothing has changed about that.
               | 
               | Yet - it's a prediction based on the capability of future
               | hardware that seems plausible.
               | 
               | > Let's see the hardware that "doesn't suck", let's see
               | the UI and utility that "are there" and then I'll tell
               | you if we have a winner or not.
               | 
               | Yeah sure, it's way easier to make predictions in
               | hindsight after other people have already built it. Even
               | then - when the iPhone launched in 2007 it was largely
               | panned in a similar way to what you're doing now.
               | 
               | Making accurate predictions is hard - I agree with that.
               | If you dismiss everything you'll be right a lot of the
               | time, but you'll also miss every big and interesting
               | change until someone else builds it.
        
               | shirhan wrote:
               | Comparing the launch of the iPhone with the "launch" of a
               | prediction blog post void of any idea how said AR device
               | is even going to work is honestly absurd.
        
         | tomc1985 wrote:
         | > But here's the thing, in 10 years time, you're going to have
         | Windows, which is still just, and will continue to be, Windows.
         | And macOS, and iOS, and tvOS, and every other Apple OS, is
         | going to be so much more. And they already are so much more.
         | 
         | And what is wrong with this? A stable, long-lasting platform is
         | a beautiful thing.
         | 
         | Maybe I'm an old fart (at 36...) but I don't really want "so
         | much more". I want something that I can count on and bank on
         | _now_ , and that will be there for me for as far into the
         | future as possible. None of this lofty futuretech seems to
         | promise that, at least without bleeding me dry in pointlessly
         | recurring interactions like subscription fees.
        
         | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
         | > Except everyone publishing software today that isn't a game
         | developer is targeting the web.
         | 
         | All pro or semi-pro creative applications target native.
         | 
         | live streaming / video editing / animation / DAW / image
         | editing
         | 
         | There are some toys for parts of these workflows in the
         | webspace, but no serious tools for people who do this stuff
         | seriously.
        
         | mioasndo wrote:
         | > Something that's dawned on me for the last few years is that
         | Microsoft basically settled on the idea that the idea of the
         | modern operating system is effectively done, which I suppose is
         | true, but then they stopped creating technologies to build on
         | top of Windows all together.
         | 
         | What happened was open source software, linux dominating the
         | server side, and android dominating mobile (iOS as well, to a
         | lesser extent).
         | 
         | > Except everyone publishing software today that isn't a game
         | developer is targeting the web.
         | 
         | Except for nearly all backend development... which mostly
         | targets linux first.
         | 
         | > OK, but Microsoft is in the best position to create great,
         | integrated, first-class technologies that build on how great
         | Windows is. But they don't. I have mixed feelings about this,
         | because when Apple does it, they basically put people out of
         | business.
         | 
         | For example? Apple software is average, and Microsoft has a
         | long history of 'putting people out of business' (not in a good
         | way).
         | 
         | > But here's the thing, in 10 years time, you're going to have
         | Windows, which is still just, and will continue to be, Windows.
         | And macOS, and iOS, and tvOS, and every other Apple OS, is
         | going to be so much more. And they already are so much more.
         | 
         | You forgot... android and linux. How does apple 'already have
         | so much more'?
         | 
         | > For those who haven't experienced it yet, or can't afford
         | Apple products, they're missing something that just hasn't
         | happened in computing in any other period of time I can
         | immediately think of.
         | 
         | That just sounds like an opinion of the average non-tech user
         | who lives inside an apple bubble and likes icon shapes and
         | default keybindings. You're not saying anything specific, just
         | poetry about apple being 'first-class' and 'something that just
         | hasn't happened in computing in any other period of time' (???)
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | tomc1985 wrote:
       | Can someone please define 'metaverse' in the context of...
       | whatever this article is about?
       | 
       | Like jfc people, 'End users will experience the metaverse through
       | the default device delivered experience.' sounds like the most
       | doublespeakiest doublespeak ever to have been written.
       | 
       | I love tech and this lofty shit makes me want to gouge my eyes
       | out. Speak plainly and simply, folks.
        
         | slver wrote:
         | Basically bunch of wanking about futuristic AR sci-fi
         | technology that the author has decided to accept as proven to
         | be coming, but actually isn't.
         | 
         | See flying cars 20 years ago.
        
         | EvanAnderson wrote:
         | I assume it's a reference, at least in part, to the virtual
         | reality world in Neal Stephenson's "Snow Crash".
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaverse
        
           | OedipusRex wrote:
           | Which is where this falls apart. In the book the Metaverse is
           | basically a completely novel location in "VR".
           | 
           | If we're pursuing a Metaverse, VR Chat is closer to a
           | Metaverse than Apple.
        
         | sombremesa wrote:
         | > Can someone please define 'metaverse' in the context of...
         | whatever this article is about?
         | 
         | Personally, I dislike the term and I believe that it causes
         | people to lose credibility when they use it. However, I _can_
         | define it to some extent.
         | 
         | Consider the term 'universe' in the context of 'a particular
         | sphere of activity, interest, or experience'. For example, the
         | 'Harry Potter universe'.
         | 
         | The 'metaverse' is simply such a 'universe' that you can't
         | really opt out of, because it's a layer on top of, rather than
         | distinct from, the regular old world. This is why AR is often
         | considered to be such an intrinsic aspect of it.
         | 
         | Now, you might say that 'the internet' is just such a
         | metaverse, but it isn't because it doesn't benefit the people
         | who peddle the buzzword.
        
           | tomc1985 wrote:
           | I guess I don't get what's so meta about it. We're not
           | talking about a universe that describes universes.
           | 
           | Metaphysics = the physics of physics
           | 
           | Metascience = studying science itself with science
           | 
           | Metaphilosophy = Philosophy about philosophy itself
           | 
           | Metadata = data describing data
           | 
           | Gaming 'meta' = the game of how to best play the game
           | 
           | 'Meta' is one of those ultra-abstract terms that obfuscates
           | the meaning of whatever word it is attached to unless the
           | listener gives or has given the word a fair amount of
           | thought. Ah, then maybe that is why it is being used here.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | Grustaf wrote:
           | Why wouldn't you be able to opt out of some AR world?
           | 
           | I thought metaverse just meant Second Life 2.0.
        
             | sombremesa wrote:
             | You're right, that wasn't the best choice of words. I just
             | meant that it would be difficult to ignore or be
             | uninfluenced by it, at least if there were able to exist
             | "THE metaverse" rather than several fragmented attempts.
        
         | AndrewKemendo wrote:
         | The Metaverse in this context is a continuously updated digital
         | copy of the real world, where the "environment" is generated
         | passively by users.
         | 
         | Imagine a city park where a handful of people have glasses with
         | cameras on them that are continuously sending a geo-located
         | feed of the images to a map server which processes it into a 3D
         | reconstruction. You could watch in real time as the city park
         | is reconstructed and updated in real time 3D, add in virtual
         | content, make content "layers" for different digital assets,
         | track interactions etc...
         | 
         | It's a globally crowdsourced, consistently updated real time
         | digital twin of the world.
        
         | grawprog wrote:
         | I could be wrong, but sifting through that utterly terrible
         | corporate buzzword filled whatever the hell that was...
         | 
         | I think it's what Apple's calling their new Augmented Reality
         | platform...I think...or what the author is calling what could
         | be Apple's potential AR platform...maybe?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
         | Ads that follow you around in VR. There will be no escape.
         | 
         | Also, Apple will try to make useful things appear in your VR
         | goggles - like showing you how to get home on a map, when in
         | fact you're planning to go out for a drink, or go grocery
         | shopping, or anything but.
         | 
         | This is a terrible article, but the idea is - if not sound, at
         | least potentially interesting.
         | 
         | It's basically enhanced location-aware cognition, taking input
         | from _everything_ around you - sound, video, tactile input, GPS
         | location, event history, AI-enhanced memory - and combining it
         | in real time to produce (checks notes...)  "a new class of
         | life-enhancing interactions."
         | 
         | The problem? It needs a lot of moving parts working together
         | seamlessly with better-than-human performance and reliability.
         | 
         | Otherwise it will be a kludgy distracting nightmare of failed
         | meta-everything - like the most annoying and useless intern
         | anyone has ever had, only everywhere.
        
           | Accujack wrote:
           | Except it won't go on a coffee run.
        
           | eecc wrote:
           | > Otherwise it will be a kludgy distracting nightmare of
           | failed meta-everything - like the most annoying and useless
           | intern anyone has ever had, only everywhere.
           | 
           | Clippy?
        
             | dole wrote:
             | Can I just get Alexa on a drone that perpetually follows me
             | around and broadcasts (or projects visually) occasional
             | targeted advertising? /s
        
           | donpdonp wrote:
           | HYPER-REALITY from 2016 is a very well done imagining of that
           | AR advertising dystopia.
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs
        
           | tomc1985 wrote:
           | Great, then I look forward to another useless technobauble
           | being hamfistedly shoved down my throat.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | Completely agree. The words "metaverse substrate" just set my
         | BS meter to a thousand, so I didn't even bother reading the
         | article at first. Then I did read (most of it), and still my BS
         | meter was at a thousand.
         | 
         | If you can't explain what you mean in simple, easy to
         | understand language, and you're not talking about quantum
         | physics, you're just bullshitting. Should be required reading:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_and_the_English_Langu...
        
         | mikepurvis wrote:
         | It's right there in the first paragraph:
         | 
         | "I've been less sure they understood the full scope needed to
         | build a compelling AR ecosystem - a metaverse."
        
           | tomc1985 wrote:
           | I saw that, and the definition still says nothing.
           | 
           | Ok, so a metaverse is somehow the realization of the "full
           | scope" needed for a compelling AR ecosystem? And what exactly
           | does that mean, and how does that define this particular
           | usage of the (heavily overloaded) term 'metaverse'?
           | 
           | Meta meaning 'about', so a universe about a universe?
           | 
           | edit/ugh: googling the term says 'a virtual-reality space in
           | which users can interact with a computer-generated
           | environment and other users.'
           | 
           | Like wtf does that have to do with the meta root word here?
           | 
           | There is far too much abstraction in this vocabulary defining
           | a thing that is very real.
        
             | lallysingh wrote:
             | It's the universe (the regular meatspace one) augmented
             | with metadata, traditionally named such in AR/VR circles.
             | Metadata like names, statistics, directions, etc. Such as a
             | HUD you'd see in first-person video games.
             | 
             | Another use of the term (not here) would be a way to jump
             | between VR systems, but they never generalized well enough
             | to make that a significant thing. Right now Steam would
             | count
        
             | blowski wrote:
             | To understand the metaverse first you need to understand
             | the metaverse. That's what I take from these comments and
             | the article.
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | mind_blown.gif /s
        
         | beeandapenguin wrote:
         | In general, the term 'metaverse' is commonly used in the AR/VR
         | space to describe virtual worlds. Today, in (virtual) reality
         | it feels somewhat analogous to an "immersive operating system".
         | It's the entry point for doing _other_ things on a VR system.
         | 
         | Some examples: Roblox, Facebook Horizon, VRChat, NEOS
        
         | canadianfella wrote:
         | > most doublespeakiest doublespeak
         | 
         | > Speak plainly and simply, folk
         | 
         | Ironic
        
         | memco wrote:
         | I was also confused and clicked just to try to figure out what
         | the headline meant. In the very beginning of the article
         | there's this line:
         | 
         | > I've been less sure they understood the full scope needed to
         | build a compelling AR ecosystem - a metaverse.
         | 
         | Seems this is about augmented reality being integrated into the
         | regular experience of a significant population.
        
         | deeviant wrote:
         | Of course, I think I can help.
         | 
         | What is trying to be communicated here is psychographic content
         | will be delivered via standard device substrates existing in
         | well aligned usage patterns that will no doubt delight the end-
         | user with value. Metaverse here simply means they will deliver
         | an experience that is parallel to user expectation yet
         | orthogonal to the digital representation of the physical model
         | of the prevailing social zeitgeist.
         | 
         | Or maybe someone just read Ready Player One recently, and is
         | just thinking: We're going to build the Oasis but nobody could
         | possibility understand what that is, I'll have to break it down
         | into easy-to-misunderstand corpobabble.
        
           | bjornjajayaja wrote:
           | Like a hipster wearing a monocle fashioned with metaverse-
           | substrate. The new age user interface is like cup of coffee
           | and a pipe with eco-friendly, translucent tobacco.
        
           | tomc1985 wrote:
           | I appreciate the irony of your second paragraph
        
           | hprotagonist wrote:
           | > We're going to build the Oasis and
           | 
           | The Black Sun was there first.
           | 
           | Can i interest you in a loose collection of extremely janky
           | perl scripts? The bar's owner hates it but, who cares? If he
           | kicks us out we can just race bikes for a while until the
           | fuss blows over.
        
             | jsemrau wrote:
             | You rmemeber Blaxxun from the '90s ? Man, that was a
             | Metaverse.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | nixpulvis wrote:
             | Any idea where a guy can score The Librarian these days?
             | Wikipedia is cool and all, but it's lacking a certain...
             | finesse.
             | 
             | On a more serious note, I think these are different
             | metaverses. Ours is pretty much locked in VR as far as I
             | can tell, and Apple is building an overlay on zeroth-order
             | reality, aka AR. Arguably harder and more powerful if done
             | properly. Which I'm sure it won't be.
             | 
             | :P
        
               | chipotle_coyote wrote:
               | > Arguably harder and more powerful if done properly.
               | Which I'm sure it won't be.
               | 
               | My response is kind of stuck between "that's overly
               | cynical, isn't it" and "statistically speaking, that's
               | pretty likely".
               | 
               | (I was actually working at an early AR project at Nokia a
               | bit over a decade ago, at the time called Point & Find,
               | later called CityLens. It gave me a feeling that good AR
               | may be one of those things that remains "just a couple
               | years away" for decades.)
        
               | hnuser123456 wrote:
               | Define "good AR"? Pokemon Go is nearing its 5th birthday.
               | A VRchat overlay you can use on the street? If you get
               | the Epson AR glasses, combine it with the Quest 2's
               | Snapdragon XR2, and mess around in Unity for a bit, that
               | could be done by the end of the year. Create an app
               | that's killer enough to make up for the
               | bulkiness/inconvenience/price of a version 1 streetwear
               | AR headset and we'll be getting somewhere.
        
               | chipotle_coyote wrote:
               | That's fair -- with the caveat that your last sentence is
               | asking for a lot. :) I think Pokemon Go did a great job
               | of being an AR game, although I couldn't help but notice
               | that literally everyone I knew playing it turned off the
               | camera functionality after a few weeks and gave up on the
               | AR overlay part.
               | 
               | I don't know what the "killer app" for AR is really going
               | to be. CityLens and comparable apps like Yelp Monocle on
               | smartphones clearly haven't cut it. (Show of hands: how
               | many people remembered Yelp _had_ an augmented reality
               | mode? I don 't think it's there anymore.) I think the big
               | challenge now is thinking of applications that _aren 't_
               | games where using goggles/glasses give you more than
               | incremental improvements over putting the UI on your
               | wrist or in your ear(s).
        
             | ryanmcbride wrote:
             | That's where my mind immediately goes when I hear
             | 'metaverse' too
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | Does this have something to do with the reality distortion
           | field?
        
           | ant6n wrote:
           | >> Speak plainly and simply, folks.
           | 
           | > Of course, I think I can help. (...)[jibberish]
           | 
           | Lol, well done!
        
             | abricot wrote:
             | Listen to him. He speaks jive.
        
       | SkyMarshal wrote:
       | This very light grey text on white background = almost
       | unreadable. (Firefox 89 on linux)
       | 
       | https://contrastrebellion.com/
        
         | piinbinary wrote:
         | Interestingly, the background is black for me in Chrome, and
         | white in Firefox (both under macOS)
        
           | ezekg wrote:
           | Almost seems like Chrome has some default styles for dark
           | mode, such as a black background on <body>.
           | 
           | Edit: TIL about the color-scheme (draft) CSS property. FF
           | doesn't support it.
        
           | 00jimbo wrote:
           | similarly, it renders light on black/dark grey for me in
           | safari.
        
         | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
         | Reader mode to the rescue! It is almost the default way I
         | consume most blogs and news sites, reading experience is so
         | much better!
        
           | gtirloni wrote:
           | Same here. I use it on every other website and it's just
           | great.
        
         | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | Freak_NL wrote:
         | Something is screwy with the dark-mode CSS.
        
           | LeifCarrotson wrote:
           | Yep, it's fine unless you use a dark mode, in which case it
           | looks like this:
           | 
           | https://i.imgur.com/7XwxrSb.png
           | 
           | If you're not using dark mode, it's #EBEBEB on #121212, which
           | has plenty of contrast:
           | 
           | https://contrast-ratio.com/#%23EBEBEB-on-%23121212
           | 
           | If you're using dark mode, it doesn't simply do nothing,
           | which would be the reasonable approach with those colors, it
           | gives you that light gray text on #FFFFFF pure white
           | background. It's basically the opposite of dark mode.
        
         | grork wrote:
         | Apologies for this -- I apparently failed to test on dark mode
         | in Firefox. I fixed it up just now
         | (https://github.com/grork/personal-
         | blog/commit/b9df1e924ef296...), and should be much more
         | readable.
        
           | SkyMarshal wrote:
           | Much better, thanks!
        
         | jodrellblank wrote:
         | > " _Please don 't complain about website formatting, back-
         | button breakage, and similar annoyances. They're too common to
         | be interesting. Exception: when the author is present. Then
         | friendly feedback might be helpful._" -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | mark_l_watson wrote:
       | >> SwiftUI is getting more capable with every release, and
       | appears to be the long-term UI platform for apple. It also isn't
       | just about 'below the glass' experiences.
       | 
       | SwiftUI 2 is so much better. I am taking a 50 hour course, and
       | spent a few hours hacking this morning. So much better than when
       | I tried it 14 months ago.
       | 
       | Spacial Audio works really well. They are probably using
       | something called Head Related Transfer Functions, which I used at
       | my company's VR lab in the mid-1990s.
       | 
       | The example AR Swift Playgrounds examples are also pretty cool.
       | 
       | I agree with the general premise of the article!
        
       | th3h4mm3r wrote:
       | Marketing buzzwords.
        
       | streamofdigits wrote:
       | The curious thing about the past, present and future of AR... if
       | there was low hanging fruit (in terms of irresistible
       | applications) that people must absolutely have, love at first
       | "sight" experiences, wouldn't it have happened already? with
       | whatever crude software and hardware? Not as a gimmick but as
       | persistent interest and investment[0].
       | 
       | People got busy with computers when computers were the size of
       | houses. They carried mobile phones when phones were the size of
       | suitcases. Is the proto-AR revolution happening somewhere out
       | there without anybody noticing?
       | 
       | Its possible that there is no low hanging AR fruit. That somebody
       | has to do the difficult job of climbing up the AR tree so to
       | speak (refine the technology until it feels like magic).
       | 
       | It just seems that this would be an exception in how things
       | played out so far in the "digital transformation" journey. Its
       | the nature of the human brain to fill-in the gaps and overlook
       | the rough edges when it really has an incentive to do so.
       | 
       | [0] investment in the sense of personal time by users, creators,
       | business people etc to really learn and use the technology to
       | scratch whatever itch they found it is scratching...
        
       | nottorp wrote:
       | Technobabble aside, I'm betting the battery life on the Apple
       | Glasses will be as bad as on the Apple Watch or worse.
       | 
       | And people with prescription glasses won't be able to afford the
       | Apple Prescription(tm) anyway.
        
       | titanomachy wrote:
       | > Device-local speech recognition is fundamental to AR -- we
       | can't tap our feet & twiddle our thumbs while we wait for a
       | round-trip to the cloud to conclude how to handle "Group these
       | five items, and remember them for next week when I'm at the
       | office"
       | 
       | I'm not convinced that this is true. Round-trip latency has
       | gotten a lot lower, especially if you take edge computing into
       | account. 20-30ms round-trip is not unusual. If your mic feed is
       | being streamed in real-time, and the program is able to achieve a
       | high-confidence prediction at (or before) the moment you finish
       | speaking, I think it should be possible to deliver an experience
       | that feels instantaneous, at least for users with cutting-edge
       | connectivity. For visual interactions, 100ms feels instantaneous;
       | I bet tolerance for spoken interactions is even higher.
        
       | dangus wrote:
       | Some of the ideas in the article make a lot of sense in the
       | context of AR, specifically the parts about on-device Siri and
       | Spatial Audio.
       | 
       | However...I'm sorry, the article as a whole just leaves me with
       | the taste of Apple butt-licking.
       | 
       | So many of these parts of this "metaverse" are typical recurring
       | revenue and ecosystem lock-in encouragements.
       | 
       | Find My: Let's sell some high profit margin trackers and
       | keychains.
       | 
       | SharePlay: let's sell more TV+ subscriptions.
       | 
       | Universal Control: platform lock-in: make you question using a
       | Windows desktop instead of an iMac if you already own an iPad.
       | 
       | Spatial Audio: sell more headphones
       | 
       | Notes features: sell more News+ subscriptions, more vendor lock-
       | in.
       | 
       | ShazamKit: data mine advertising info. Yes, Apple has ad
       | platforms, and with each passing day their business model creeps
       | closer and closer to Google's (e.g., When they inevitably drop
       | Yelp in favor of their own review system, or if they launch their
       | own search engine)
       | 
       | (Apple can still mine data and use it to sell you things and
       | understand what you're likely to buy even if they "respect" your
       | privacy and leave all the data on-device. They can still get you
       | to click an affiliate link or buy an app without leaving the
       | realm of on-device ML.
       | 
       | And remember that Apple's marketing is not the same as their
       | documented privacy policy.
        
         | ericmay wrote:
         | Heh, I'd say at least Apple is differentiating...
         | 
         | Google:
         | 
         | GMail -> Let's sell some ads
         | 
         | Android -> Let's sell some ads
         | 
         | Android Auto -> How can we put ads in cars?
         | 
         | YouTube -> How can we show people more video ads?
         | 
         | Search -> Let's sell some ads.
         | 
         | Google Music -> Did this sell enough ads? If not lets rebrand
         | it and try to sell more ads.
         | 
         | etc.
         | 
         | Anyway, not a slight against Google, but you can do this with
         | any large company probably. I'm not sure how meaningful it is.
        
         | robertoandred wrote:
         | Oh please describe all of these Apple ad platforms.
        
           | dangus wrote:
           | Sure!
           | 
           | The App Store has sponsored apps.
           | 
           | Apple News has ads in the app, before you click on any
           | articles.
           | 
           | Apple Music/iTunes Store/Books has promoted
           | artists/albums/movies/TV. It's unclear whether any of these
           | are paid promotions by the content producer but they're in a
           | banner so I have to assume Apple gets something out of it.
           | 
           | Apple Podcasts also has a featured section, likely paid ads.
           | 
           | And, as I mentioned, it's extremely likely that Apple is
           | working on a replacement for Yelp for Apple Maps, which will
           | potentially be a big source of revenue.
           | 
           | And of course, there are ads for Apple's own in-house TV+
           | content. Not an ad network, but if they know what you like
           | they can better promote their TV shows. By default the TV app
           | sends random push notifications.
           | 
           | The more Apple gets into content the more knowing your
           | personality and interests is important to their business
           | model.
        
         | imwillofficial wrote:
         | This is the most biased take on useful platform differentiating
         | features I've ever seen.
        
           | lallysingh wrote:
           | Meh, I think that's not out of line with how other vendors
           | (e.g. Google) are treated here right now.
        
           | SheinhardtWigCo wrote:
           | Indeed, it's totally nuts to suggest that the world's most
           | capitalized company might be focused on revenue growth
           | instead of the "metaverse substrate".
        
       | lazyfuture wrote:
       | Are you out of your ducking mind?
       | 
       | Sent from my iPhone
        
       | theonlybutlet wrote:
       | The ramp up in the use of the term 'meta' for everything over the
       | past few months makes me cringe.
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | Well, 'metaverse', here, comes from 1992's _Snow Crash_ and has
         | been in use for nearly 30 years. Not really just the past few
         | months.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | If this is correct, Apple's vision is that in the future, all
         | their customers will be glassholes. They could be right. I
         | never expected people would walk around wearing iDweebs, those
         | silly headphones.
        
       | meh99 wrote:
       | Apple makes the idea of Plan9 viable using wireless technology
       | and smart protocols.
        
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