[HN Gopher] Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena ___________________________________________________________________ Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Author : tailspin2019 Score : 149 points Date : 2021-06-25 20:36 UTC (2 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.dni.gov) (TXT) w3m dump (www.dni.gov) | pueblito wrote: | > In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed | radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings. | | Does this mean the objects emit RF energy of some sort? | trasz wrote: | I'm guessing it's just their way of saying "we have RWR | recordings of the radio waves, but since it's SIGINT we won't | be giving you any details for another 40 years." | shadowgovt wrote: | That's one possibility, but I think the phrasing in the report | is intentionally chosen so as not to rule out RF emission | passing through or past the object, or RF emission from another | direction being reflected towards the observer by the object. | trasz wrote: | "The datasetdescribed in this report is currently limited | primarily to U.S. Government reporting of incidents occurring | from November 2004 to March 2021." | | So what happened to observations from before 2004? | tailspin2019 wrote: | Interestingly the Nimitz incident was 14 November 2004 (14 days | into this stated time window of analysis). | dandelany wrote: | Nine pages? All this hoopla for the month leading up to the | release and we get NINE measly pages with no supporting | documentation? am I missing something? I expected to see | something similar in quality/detail to an FAA accident | investigation, this is a worthless executive summary. | thebeefytaco wrote: | I didn't expect to see anything like that, but I wanted to. | y04nn wrote: | I would not call it a report either, this is a request for more | funding, the last sentence is: | | > The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research | and development could further the future study of the topics | laid out in this report. | | I would be more interested in a BEA style analysis of each | incident. But at least it lays down some possible causes: | - Airborne Clutter - Natural Atmospheric Phenomena | - USG or Industry Developmental Programs - Foreign | Adversary Systems - Other | | And I would say the the order reflect the decreasing | probability of each cause. | markus_zhang wrote: | Problem is that pretty much everyone here can lay those | causes easily... | yuvadam wrote: | The "other" bin sounds oddly suspicious. Why would the report | creators step out of their way not to clearly define a bin | for intelligent (and far more advanced) extraterrestrial | activity? | krferriter wrote: | The fact they don't include "just other normal planes" in | that list calls into question the quality of this whole | document. It really seems like this document was just thrown | together with no real intent to get into the weeds on the | reports. It does also seem like they are trying so hard to be | vague to avoid running afoul of information classification | rules. The White House needs to tell them to stop going so | overboard with classification. Overclassification is a real | problem in government. | ineedasername wrote: | If they knew it was just another normal plane then it would | not be unidentified. They actually identify countless | objects every day. This report was not about them. | krferriter wrote: | They're listing _possibilities_. Planes are one | possibility, just as balloons, birds, and everything else | they listed. Planes have been with high confidence | attributed to multiple civilian recorded videos posted | online (not in this dataset). Planes are a legitimate, | high likelihood possibility for some of the reports. It | has to be included on any list of possibilities used in | investigating them. | mkl wrote: | All the things in that list are like that though, | "Airborne Clutter", "Natural Atmospheric Phenomena", etc. | If they knew it was one of those it wouldn't be | unidentified. It is entirely possible for a plane to be | detected but not identified as such, so planes should be | possible causes too. | krferriter wrote: | They referenced 18 cases in which "observers reported unusual | UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics". Of course | this does not mean the object/phenomenon actually exhibited | unusual movement or flight characteristics, rather that the | person who observed it thought it might have been. | | They need to list each of those 18 key cases they referenced, | as well as what their current state of knowledge about each is. | One incident they say they already know for certain was just a | balloon, but they don't say which incident it was. Maybe this | is just a preliminary document, but if so, or if they think | this is sufficient, it's not sufficient and we do need a deeper | report. The longer this drags on the more wild stories some | people in the public and press will spin to justify their | belief that a lot, or even most, of the UFO sightings are | really aliens visiting Earth. | | Worth noting that those 18 key cases came from a pool of 144 | cases meeting the criteria "witnessed firsthand by military | aviators and that were collected from systems we considered to | be reliable", which came from a larger (size unspecified) pool | of less reliable reports. They also point out that the reports | disproportionately come from the area immediately surrounding | US military testing/training facilities. | beaner wrote: | > They also point out that the reports disproportionately | come from the area immediately surrounding US military | testing/training facilities. | | Is that because the observers are disproportionately likely | to be near US military testing/training facilities? | [deleted] | awesomeusername wrote: | There are some smug looking dudes at Lockheed right now | ALittleLight wrote: | This seems awfully brief and doesn't have much detail. The tittle | says it's a "preliminary" report. Is this _the_ expected UAP | report or just a preliminary document about it? | | I would want to see summary statistics for each reported incident | and descriptions of the most compelling phenomenon. This document | raises a lot of questions and answers few. | | The document says they have 21 reports of UAP that "appear to | demonstrate advanced technology" including moving at | "considerable speed" "without discernable means of propulsion." I | need more detail! Are these reports among those confirmed by | multiple trustworthy sensors and observers? What do we know about | these UAP? What speed? Do we have video? | | I'm also not really impressed by their idea to use "advanced | algorithms" and "machine learning". Are UFO encounters so | frequent we need to resort to big data? I do think it's an | excellent idea to process recorded radar data looking for UAP | signs though. | tailspin2019 wrote: | > I'm also not really impressed by their idea to use "advanced | algorithms" and "machine learning". Are UFO encounters so | frequent we need to resort to big data? | | I had that same thought - on first read this report seems to | contain summary analysis of 144 UAP incidents. Not the sort of | numbers that immediately make me think "I need ML to process | those!" | Sanzig wrote: | ML/AI/"algorithms" are the buzzwords of the day in the public | _and_ private sectors right now. | JohnBooty wrote: | Agreed; ML doesn't make sense to me in the context in which | they present it. Seems like they just crammed in a buzzword | there. | | Later in the report, it says this: One | proposal is to use advanced algorithms to search | historical data captured and stored by radars | | They do _not_ mention ML in that context, but it seems like a | more promising way in which they might usefully employ it. | trasz wrote: | 144 _reported_ incidents. They also talk about how some of | the cases going unreported. It would make sense to sieve | through the radar data (I'd guess all the ATC radars are | being recorded, because why not?) to look for those. | tailspin2019 wrote: | Yep that's fair enough. And satellite imagery too I guess. | nradov wrote: | Most ATC now uses _secondary_ radars. Those generally only | pick up aircraft carrying transponders. | trasz wrote: | Good point. What about the radars used by Air Force to | guard the airspace? Do they cover the interior, or only | the borders? | xxpor wrote: | Secondary radar == just an RX only antenna? | nradov wrote: | Transmitter also, but not powerful enough to get a useful | return from an aircraft without a transponder at any | significant range. | joshuajill wrote: | If you're curious, this previously released footage is quite | detailed. | | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/pentagon-relea... | 1337biz wrote: | Are there any plausible theories why this stuff is getting | released right now? | | It looks like there is no immediate reason for action. And no | real reason why they wouldn't have gone on for another decade | denying it. | giarc wrote: | They had to release it. | | >The report prepared by the Director of National Intelligence | (DNI) was required by the Intelligence Authorization Act passed | by Congress late last year. The U.S. intelligence community was | given 180 days to prepare an unclassified and classified report | on what the U.S. government knew about UAPs. | | https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/highly-anticipated-ufo-repor... | ocdtrekkie wrote: | The classified report probably has the good stuff. It doesn't | surprise me that this is extremely watered down for the | public: Far more plausible than "aliens" is "foreign | government figured out they can do something cool"[0], and if | it's the latter, the US is not going to want to make it clear | how much they do and don't understand about it. | | [0] Even this category can be divided out into plausible and | implausible options. For instance, I'd likely believe another | government figured out they could mess with our military | sensors over having developed antigravity. | nescioquid wrote: | I can't get around thinking there are simply just a bunch | of I-want-to-believers in government, some of whom | started/supported AATIP and its successor. They need | budget, so invoke National Security. I truly doubt there is | any "good stuff". | dt3ft wrote: | Our government expects visitors soon and this was a step | towards preparing the public to what is about to come? xD | bostonsre wrote: | Something like that sounds plausible. If they knew for sure, | I doubt they would want to dump all evidence at once. Would | be incredibly interesting to see how the world would change | if that happened tho. | s5300 wrote: | I saw not too far back that the Pentagon/other places got | _absolutely_ fucking swamped by FOIA requests, to the point it | was seriously bogging man-power down internally, when COVID | lockdowns started because people had nothing better to do. | | To make them all stop, they basically said "okay, we're going | to release these reports in some determined length of time" | | Sounds fairly reasonable. | zrail wrote: | The Senate ordered DNI to write a public report last year. | someguy101010 wrote: | There is a whitest kids you know sketch about this where the | government was talking about the invasion by ak47 weilding | bears. | | The reporters asked: "wait a minute, are we invading Iran | again?" | | This always is on my mind when I see these reports. | petermcneeley wrote: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvjgIxuVdo4 | pkaye wrote: | Senator Rubio added it into one of the COVID bills last year | requesting disclosure of this information. It also funds the | continued investigation of UAP sightings. | onychomys wrote: | Lol, looks like DNI.gov wasn't ready for the traffic. I'd have | thought that all the .gov sites were pretty robust, just as a | matter of principle. | thanksforfish wrote: | Or atleast as a security measure. Denial of service is a | security concern... embarrassing. | vmception wrote: | Nope they are very far behind typically and that's the | assumption I start with | | You should look at a few technology related executive orders to | show how difficult coordination of this is and how behind they | are | bb88 wrote: | If you rule out aliens and sensor artifacts, then the only | conclusion must be these UAP are most likely human made. | | If that's the case, it would be embarrassing for the US and | Pentagon. We (the US) should be the best in all defense | technology given how much we spend on it. | amerine wrote: | > Some UAP observations could be attributable to developments and | classified programs by U.S. entities. We were unable to confirm, | however, that these systems accounted for any of the UAP reports | we collected. | | Seems like a convenient place to hide some cool planes. | nynx wrote: | Nothing too crazy here. Exactly as expected. | [deleted] | lend000 wrote: | From a first skim, it looks intentionally vague and noncommittal, | and in classic form, released on a Friday afternoon to minimize | coverage. Also of note: there was no input at all drawn from the | CIA, which is the agency most frequently associated with the | topic for a variety of reasons, aside from the Air Force. "The | majority of UAP data is from U.S. Navy reporting [i.e. not in- | the-know] , but efforts are underway to standardize incident | reporting across U.S. military services..." | | I'm also unconvinced they used serious statistical rigor in | finding correlations around where sightings occur. For a better | analysis of the UAP phenomenon in France, which concludes with a | very low p value that there is a relationship between UAP's and | nuclear facilities, see: [0]. | | Despite the baby steps being made in the process of disclosure, | it seems more and more likely that deliberate disclosure has been | and will continue to be a multi-decade, slow drip of information | with no particularly historic address saying "There is nonhuman | intelligence visiting and engaging with Earth. We could not tell | you before for national security reasons, but now we can tell | you." At least, not without many years of plausibly deniable | hints before-hand. | | [0] https://cnes- | geipan.fr/sites/default/files/2015-09-01_Spatia... | frellus wrote: | No input by the CIA but did you catch the note about some data | gathered from the FBI? | | "I WANT TO BELIEVE" (in the Cigarette Man, Moulder and maybe | _especially_ Scully) | babelfish wrote: | Perhaps it is because there is no evidence of nonhuman | intelligence visiting and engaging with Earth. I'm not sure | who's surprised by this report. | tclancy wrote: | That's because you've only looked on the top side. If you | peek over the edge at the bottom you will see. | echelon wrote: | > "There is nonhuman intelligence visiting and engaging with | Earth. We could not tell you before for national security | reasons, but now we can tell you." At least, not without many | years of plausibly deniable hints before-hand. | | Do you really think that'll be the outcome? | | I'd be shocked. | | If there is nonhuman intelligence in our solar system, it's | orders of magnitude smarter than us, and I'd also wager it's | probably by design impossible for us detect. | bb88 wrote: | > I'd also wager it's probably by design impossible for us | detect. | | Humans are orders of magnitude smarter than dolphins, yet | that doesn't prevent humans from experimenting on them. | echelon wrote: | An interstellar intelligence is probably post-biology. | | Biological aliens are more than likely carbon and water | based, and most likely use oxygen/oxidation for energy. The | worlds that harbor these must be of a certain temperature | and mass, which means the biological aliens evolved adapted | to these conditions. Gravity, gravity wells, temperatures, | metabolic and resource needs that are far from ideal for | space. | | Let's also assume post-biology intelligence has the extra | benefit of duplicating, transmitting, and modifying | memories, experience, etc. and optimizing it. Compute nodes | probably have access to more than the sum total of human | knowledge at an instant, and can probably run math, | chemical, and physical simulations rapidly. These | intelligences will be orders of magnitude smarter than us. | Imagine a trillion of the smartest humans operating at peak | performance, except even smarter. | | These intelligences will also be concerned about other | intelligences that have more resources and that may not | take a friendly disposition. Unless there's an omnipotent | intergalactic police force that prevents attack and | extermination, intelligences will hide their presence by | default. | | Since other adversarial intelligences probably also have | technologies beyond our own, the technological needs and | techniques for advanced cloaking may be beyond our present | understanding. | | I didn't claim alien intelligence wouldn't study us. (They | probably would.) I claimed they would remain very well | hidden. | bb88 wrote: | For observation, yes you're right. I'm not disagreeing | there. We do that in nature all the time -- e.g. wildlife | safaris with large telephoto lenses downwind | lions/tigers/etc. | | But when we experiment with dolphins, the beach ball has | to be visible so we can see what the dolphin does with it | (even if we're hidden behind two-way glass). If it is | aliens (and I'm not suggesting it is) why can't it be | that they're measuring our intelligence capacity? This is | the proverbial, beach ball, as it were. | EMM_386 wrote: | > If there is nonhuman intelligence in our solar system, it's | orders of magnitude smarter than us, and I'd also wager it's | probably by design impossible for us detect. | | Likely in the galaxy, seems unlikely there is advanced | nonhuman intelligence hiding in our solar system. | echelon wrote: | Maybe. | | I did some Googling, and apparently the human race has | produced between 1 and 2 billion cars in the last 100 years | [1]. That's an incredible feat! | | Assuming a post-biology intelligence has started space | manufacturing, they probably have the capacity to produce | an incredible volume of intelligent probes. | | Wikipedia claims that the Milky Way galaxy is composed of | 100 - 400 billion stars. [2] This figure isn't far out of | the ballpark for the number of cars we've made in 100 | years. | | Creating a single space probe to reach a star is probably | within their capability, and I'd wager they can match and | exceed our figure for vehicle production. It's not hard to | imagine they could send at least one probe to every star. | They have a lot of time to do it, too. | | Important factors I'm not accounting for are time of travel | and interstellar expansion, but I don't think that changes | the fact that an advanced race could manufacture and send a | lot of probes in all directions. | | Maybe they've already made it here. Maybe before we even | arrived. | | [1] https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/how-many-cars- | are-th... | | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way | LarryEt wrote: | I just can't imagine these are not non-US Military drones. | | I think the problem is in the US we think of drones as the DJI | phantom and not FPV drones. | | I mean if you look at FPV pilots like Johnny FPV or Mr Steele on | youtube then extrapolate out a few billion $ on research and | development you would end up with something completely alien. | DoreenMichele wrote: | A reminder that UFO stands for Unidentified Flying Object. This | is just a report on what the military saw in the air and could | not identify. | | It neither confirms nor denies popular ideas about aliens | visiting earth. | | In most cases, you can guess these are probably aircraft from | other countries. In some cases, they may be experimental aircraft | being developed in secret by some organization or other. | | I am someone who thinks there likely is alien activity on earth, | but government reports about unidentified flying objects aren't | about efforts to prove or disprove that aliens from elsewhere | visit earth. They are data on sightings in US air space of things | we could not identify. That's all they are. | | If you want to extrapolate "It's aliens!" Coolios. If you want to | insist "Aliens don't exist! This is nonsense!" Equally coolios. | | "Aliens" isn't why the US government tracks this stuff. National | security is the goal and nothing more than that should be | inferred in terms of what the US government "believes" in. | jk7tarYZAQNpTQa wrote: | > In most cases, you can guess these are probably aircraft from | other countries. | | From the report: _" We currently lack data to indicate any UAP | are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a | major technological advancement by a potential adversary."_ | [deleted] | ssully wrote: | They also say: "We are conducting further analysis to | determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated." | | Basically, the summary of the report is that there are 10+ | incidents that they cannot explain to what they believe is | insufficient data, so please give them more money so they can | collect and analyze more data to try and identify them. | neom wrote: | Bill Nelson sorta said as much in this interview: | https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/06/04/ufo-nasa-navy... | busyant wrote: | > I am someone who thinks there likely is alien activity on | earth | | Can you elaborate on why you think this (or provide some | additional detail)? | | For example, do you mean "intelligent" life? Or is this more | along the lines of panspermia? | | Thank you. | DoreenMichele wrote: | No, I don't care to elaborate on my personal opinions about | this topic. I only noted that because I habitually remind | people on HN that UFO just stands for Unidentified Flying | Object and the reason the US government is interested is for | national security reasons. | | I noted it just to suggest "If you are inferring that I am on | your side in thinking _only nutters believe in aliens_ you | are wrong. " | | I have no desire to have that conversation here. Comments on | this topic are consistently appallingly bad by HN standards | and my only desire is to say "Keep it real people. This is | not a government report on aliens. That's not what this is." | camjohnson26 wrote: | Having some views that are out of the mainstream, I | sympathize that trying to have a good faith argument can be | frustrating, but remember it's generally bad actors and | trolls who are most likely to downvote and reply to a post | they think they can easily shame. There's plenty of people | who would appreciate a different perspective even if it's | mostly downvotes. | | I recommend the excellent documentary "Behind the Curve" | for a good look at what happens to people when their views | are marginalized. They dig in and develop tunnel vision. | The way the lab leak theory for COVID subtly shifted from | conspiracy theory to real theory illustrates how important | it is not to be dismissive. | sillysaurusx wrote: | Seconded! I'm one of them too. | | (Thanks for posting some encouragement.) | busyant wrote: | Wasn't trying to be confrontational. It just seemed like | you might have a contrarian view that might be worth | hearing. | DoreenMichele wrote: | I didn't think you were being confrontational. It's just | not something I'm interested in discussing at this time. | | I'm also not interested in a large number of people | inferring I believe the opposite and then acting like I'm | "lying" or "did an about face" on my opinion should I | ever change my mind and decide I wish to discuss it. | | People are really bad about making unfounded inferences | no matter how carefully you talk about a thing and then | hanging their baggage on you over what they imagined you | believe when you never said anything about what you | believe. | | Government reports about unidentified aerial phenomena | aren't motivated by a belief in aliens. Me reminding | people of that fact is not motivated by a belief "That | aliens don't exist." | | Maybe "UFO" will stop getting used in titles and the new | term UAP will get popular and these conversations will | generally improve. | | After I left my comment, the title was changed. That's a | good thing and makes my reminder less pertinent. Maybe I | will just stop leaving them entirely. | tw04 wrote: | I think if you threw out why you feel there is alien | activity with a "not looking to debate it" that would be | more interesting than saying you think people are going to | argue with you. If you've stated reasoning in the past | maybe just link to that? | f02a wrote: | I, for one, 100% believe that at least some of this is | advanced, non-human tech. | | Trying to convince HN about the "why" is at best | problematic. I could give evidence from my own | observations and experiences, but they would be easily | dismissed due to lack of evidence. | | I'll just say that we, as humans, do not fully understand | how consciousness works. I'm certain that there are | others in this galaxy who do, and I have personal | experience to back that up. What percentage of HN is | going to believe that I, for whatever reason, have come | into contact with an advanced, non-human intelligence? | | Spoiler: near zero. That's why I post about this topic on | a burner account. | camjohnson26 wrote: | I mean, I'll believe that something happened to you that | has completely convinced you, and it's a nice piece of | data that helps explain why some people believe | differently than I do. The goal of every discussion | doesn't have to be to convince the other person, just | acknowledging the existence of differences is enough | sometimes. | aliasEli wrote: | Actually, I really prefer the term UAP (Unexplained Aerial | Phenomenon) over the term UFO (Unidentified Flying Object). | Using the name object makes everybody assume that it is | physical object, which may or may not be true. | drcode wrote: | Do you really think there is a single human being that reads HN | and thinks "UFO" means 100% aliens? I sorta doubt anyone here | needs such a reminder. | sillysaurusx wrote: | Yes, the reminder is needed. In fact I saw a fella on HN | argue that because some rocks on Mars looked a bit like | faces, we should consider the alien possibility. (This was | many months or years ago; HN becomes an orange blur after | awhile, but it was surprising enough to stick in my memory.) | fghorow wrote: | Some poor staffer pulled an all-nighter to write this 5 months | and 29 days ago, and the rest of the time has been spent | wordsmithing and going through clearances. | xtracto wrote: | Most likely the original report was like 20 pages long, and | after those 5 months, the "publishable" parts is what we are | seeing here. | mindcrime wrote: | _Some of these steps are resource-intensive and would require | additional investment._ | | And there you have it. The "money quote" in both the literal and | metaphorical sense. Of course the Military / Espionage / | Industrial Complex community is going to try to keep paranoia | about "UAP's" and "UFO's" stoked... as long as they can use that | to justify more $$$ flowing into their coffers. | | They have to play a delicate balancing act though: stoke just | enough fear to keep the money flowing, but not so much that | anybody starts demanding they actually deliver anything | measurable _with_ that money. | | Nice gig if you can get it. | | _The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically | designed to fulfill specific missions. As a result, those sensors | are not generally suited for identifying UAP._ | | Anybody want to team up on a new startup focused on "UAP sensors" | and sell them to the government for $43,927.33 each? | benlumen wrote: | If UFOs are real and their existence has so far been dismissible | by benefit of the doubt (that the pictures and footage are fake), | then the era of deniability may be ending. We're surely not far | from cryptographically verified social media content - companies | like TruePic are already doing this, attempting to solve the | problem of deepfakes. It makes sense to me that now would be the | time for some honesty about this stuff. I wrote a piece to this | effect a few weeks ago. | | https://benlumen.substack.com/p/nothing-is-real-right-now-so... | codezero wrote: | I'm surprised nobody has suggested that these phenomenon could be | an advanced electronic interference platform and that they may be | able to interfere with the computing systems of multiple remote | sensing systems at once. | hcrisp wrote: | I think that is what was meant by "These observations could be | the result of ... spoofing" in the document just released. | codezero wrote: | Didn't catch that. I searched for interference. Good to hear | this is on their minds. | staunch wrote: | > _" Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical | objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across | multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, | weapon seekers, and visual observation."_ | | Yeah, if we could just get a copy of that data real quick, that'd | be greeeaat. | avs733 wrote: | rationally, that would fall under 'sources and methods' which | the DOD/DNI/TLA are not going to release. | | They care far less about the data than the system to get the | data. Releasing it provides potential enemies information on | systems capability. | | I'm loving the conversation here. I cannot imagine how little | the DNI cares about this. | trasz wrote: | This. Even the ones which are already public, like the FLIR | recordings, would be much more useful if they also released | tapes from other MFDs ("screens" inside the cockpit) that were | also recorded in that moment, eg the radar display. | egfx wrote: | Yes because projections have been developed to emit infrared | and projections can also be detected on radar. | | [1] | https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~scidemos/LightOptics/InfraRed... | | [2] | https://www.google.com/books/edition/Advances_in_Radar_Techn... | iagovar wrote: | This. It's 2021. Release something or just shut up. A potato | quality video from a fighter that clearly has way better video | and capabilities is not gonna cut it for me, sorry. | lawwantsin17 wrote: | big ol 9 pages of nothin | wydfre wrote: | The best quote I've got on UFOs is from Leroy Chiao, a former ISS | commander. | | "Probably some sort of secret military program" [0]. Cannot find | original on youtube any longer. | | [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1eWnHHMrck&t=30s | krferriter wrote: | I don't really like that explanation either because, as they | state in this OP document, each report has to be looked at | individually because they are all actually different. He says | "these objects" as if the reports are all the same and | explainable by the same thing. It is possible a handful of them | are actually experimental aircraft (judging by their inclusion | of that as one possible explanation for some incidents in the | report and their statement that the reports disproportionately | come from the area around DoD testing facilities, it's | plausible), but that doesn't mean all the reports are examples | of that, or even that a significant number of them are. | egfx wrote: | Oh yeah I watched that live on the news and I was kind of | startled that he just said "well looks like the trend lines are | moving and the cats out out of the bag I guess I'll just come | out and say..." I really remember this interview because I've | always suspected this was a very advanced craft. I had an | encounter in the mid 90's and what impressed on me by looking | at it was that this was something that moved, not in a natural | way like a bird or a plane (or drone) but more like you were | peering into a video game world like TRON. I cannot shake that | feeling and it's obvious if you've ever witnessed this craft. | So that's interesting right there. | junon wrote: | For anyone looking for a sane analysis of the "leaked" UFO | videos, look no further than Mick West. | | https://www.youtube.com/user/mickword | tossaway9000 wrote: | Page 5 at least settles one debate. BIRDS AREN'T REAL, they're | just "Airbone Clutter" | | > Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, .. | streamofdigits wrote: | This neither confirms nor denies that Satoshi was an alien | intelligence | marc_io wrote: | I found it quite curious how they defined UAP as "Airborne | objects not immediately identifiable" in the last section of the | report. | | I guess the whole point of dropping the UFO acronym was to change | the idea of "objects" for "phenomena", which is much broader in | scope. By keeping the word "objects" in the definition, they make | the same mistake of defining upfront what is being reported. | aliasEli wrote: | It is an extremely dumb mistake. There are many optical | illusions that make almost everyone observe things that are not | true. Machines are susceptible to similar kinds of errors. | | To name it an object (for most people this means a physical | object) is creating a wrong frame of mind. The first focus | should be on the observation and the way it was observed. | hirundo wrote: | Next: A conspiracy theory that the government is covering up the | fact that UFOs don't exist. | DoreenMichele wrote: | Contrary to popular opinion, UFO stands for Unidentified Flying | Object, not Aliens From Another Galaxy Visiting Us For Some | Damn Reason. | | Objects that fly and are not readily identifiable totally exist | and are a concern for the military as they may be aircraft from | another country violating our air space on a spy mission or | some such. | hirundo wrote: | That's what the government wants you to believe. | DoreenMichele wrote: | Shhhh. | kgwxd wrote: | The government doesn't want us to know that everyone, | everywhere is able to identify, with 100% certainty, all flying | object ever encountered. If we knew how powerful we actually | are, Big Brother would never be able to control us! | nr2x wrote: | I see no reason we couldn't have multiple conflicting | conspiracies, it would not be the first time. | maxwell wrote: | Not a theory, the intelligence community has been covering up | the fact that UFOs don't exist since 1947, e.g. | http://oregonmufon.com/PDFs/UFODisinformation.pdf | beckingz wrote: | If UFOs don't exist why would we need to give money to the | military industrial complex to track UFOs and Chinese air | traffic? | nyokodo wrote: | That's what they want you to not believe! | Y_Y wrote: | https://fas.org/irp/nro/fy08/cbjb.pdf | | That's a question for the National Reconnaissance | Organisation. | fukpaywalls2 wrote: | It's a cookbook! | arthurcolle wrote: | I can't believe this is it. What a bunch of garbage. | | Obviously this isn't birds or balloons | m1 wrote: | Not from this report, but these quotes are crazy: | | > "In this country we've had incidents where these UAPs have | interfered and actually brought offline our nuclear capabilities" | [1] | | > "We also have data suggesting that in other countries these | things have interfered with their nuclear technology and actually | turned them on, put them online." [1] | | How is stuff like this possible or is it just hyperbole? | | [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/25/ufos-us- | gove... | krferriter wrote: | Some weapons systems may be configured to automatically power | on to a more ready (as opposed sitting in low power sleep mode) | mode (not launch) when unknown objects appear on a sensor | system. Whether this is a wise way to do things stands to be | seen. | tw04 wrote: | It's not hyperbole. Computer systems have been used for decades | to move weapons into a more ready state. Fortunately they have | required a human to confirm before launch (as far as we know). | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov | owlbynight wrote: | Just kill me or give me cooler technology. Until then, this is | all a pointless exercise. | tailspin2019 wrote: | Direct link to the PDF report: | https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelima... | | > "Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical | objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across | multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, | weapon seekers, and visual observation." | | > "Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move | against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable | speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number | of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency | (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings." | xbar wrote: | 80 encounters with multiple sensors. 143 reliable encounters | with one sensor (144 minus 1 balloon). RF emission in a few | encounters. | | They could conceive of no explanation for any of them.. | | They have a lot of data and cannot explain much. | Animats wrote: | The "multiple sensors" part is important. Anything that has | video or radar returns from multiple points is much more | interesting than a single-point view. Most illusions break | down when observed from multiple widely separated points, | like several warships operating together. | | So little hard data is being released. | aliasEli wrote: | No, they said that in most cases crucial data was lacking. | | Yes, they probably have a lot more data, but they won't | release it to the general public for "security reasons". | JumpCrisscross wrote: | > _they won 't release it to the general public for | "security reasons"_ | | This is pretty clearly non-scare quotey security reasons | territory. We are unsure if what's on the scope is an | adversary's. Publishing a detailed quantification of how | little we know and in what form would be a self goal. | ineedasername wrote: | Yep. And other countries may very well be having the same | issues trying to indentify US-originated UFOs. | Retric wrote: | This is the reminder after they explained millions of | identified objects or sensor artifacts. In theory a non | trivial fraction of these may be sensor errors for example, | but so far they haven't been identified as such. Ditto for | clouds, balloons, drones, aircraft, missiles, falling space | debris, etc etc. | freyr wrote: | Only 18 exhibited unusual behavior that exceeded the | capabilities of known technology. | | For the rest, I imagine they can _conceive_ of explanations, | but they lack sufficient data to explain with certainty. | kolinko wrote: | They didn't release any details on specific incidents, right? | This pdf is all there is? | tailspin2019 wrote: | Yep, it doesn't look like there's anything else that has been | published. | raverbashing wrote: | Yeah, this "RF energy" statement is too vague. | | Ok, you detected what exactly? At which frequencies? Power? BW? | Does it look like something (unmodulated signal? Modulated? | How?)? Do you have a recording of it? | guerrilla wrote: | Considering that they were not directly in contact with the | object, it is 100% necessarily true, so the statement is | entirely meaningless without specifics like the ones you | request. | JohnBooty wrote: | This part caught my eye. These objects include | birds, balloons, recreational unmanned aerial vehicles | (UAV), or airborne debris like plastic bags | | It never occurred to me how utterly "alien" a wind-borne plastic | bag's behavior might seem on radar. | | A constantly shifting radar cross section, sudden directional | changes no "actual" flying craft could manage, etc. After all | it's an object with significant surface area but nearly zero mass | being buffeted around in a region of the atmosphere with swirling | wind currents. | | Depending on the angle, the radar cross-section of a modern | stealthy aircraft is reportedly about the same as a small bird or | even a bumblebee. So the radar cross section of an airborne | plastic bag or balloon would be pretty similar. | | That said, I think the visual reports and videos from military | aviators are pretty clearly describing something else. | krferriter wrote: | Visual experiences are often misleading especially at thousands | of feet of altitude and in the ocean where reference objects | for judging scale and distance are scarce. The military, and | airlines and flight schools generally, explicitly train people | about how visual perception can easily be flawed or mislead by | normal/everyday things with non-interesting explanations. | [deleted] | 238475235243 wrote: | The only thing they left out was swamp gas as a possible | explanation (RIP Hynek). | | Seems like another whitewash, "it can't possibly be happening" | report. | | If you spend some serious effort on this and stay away from the | crazies you'll come to the opposite conclusion of this report. A | good starting point is Vallee's books. | colechristensen wrote: | I don't know about Vallee, but after being briefly in the | defense industry, reading much, and having some experience with | aerospace everything seems to fit very well into one of three | categories | | 1) known US aircraft activity either simply misinterpreted or | kept secret from the public or even most of the military | apparatus, sometimes strongly denied either as a way to | disseminate vague information to adversaries or misinformation | | 2) foreign or personal aircraft either known or unknown to the | US. | | 3) rare weather phenomena, hallucinations, optical phenomena, | or other miscellaneous things which might be rare but with | mundane explanations | | The thing to notice is cameras have become much more prevalent | and much higher resolution, but "UFOs" in pictures haven't. The | only things that aren't obviously something understandable are | still fuzzy dots on screens despite screens and cameras getting | enormously better. | | Just look at this https://media.gvwire.com/wp- | content/uploads/2021/01/28154540... and tell me that if you saw | that you wouldn't think it was a spaceship. It was kept super | secret for a quite a long time and surely was the source of | plenty of UFO reports. | | I'm not convinced or even particularly suspicious that anything | that "isn't what it seems" is anything more than mundane. | marc_io wrote: | "The thing to notice is cameras have become much more | prevalent and much higher resolution, but "UFOs" in pictures | haven't." | | Just two examples of high resolution UAP videos: | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBQ1Ftj4hPE&ab_channel=OrdoN. | .. | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVmGhxYrkug&t=0s&ab_channel=. | .. | | The problem is not resolution per se, but the fact that is | quite easy nowadays to manipulate images and videos (I'm not | saying these videos are fake, BTW). | King-Aaron wrote: | > The thing to notice is cameras have become much more | prevalent and much higher resolution, but "UFOs" in pictures | haven't. | | Get out your phone, and take a picture of your hand. Its very | close, and you'll get a great photo. | | Now, go outside at night, look at the beacon on top of a | crane in the distance, or a plane landing a few kilometres | away. Try to take a photo of it with your phone camera. | | We have great cameras, sure, but not everyone is carrying a | 300mm lens in their pocket | 238475235243 wrote: | Where to begin? | | 1) This isn't a recent phenomena. People have been seeing | discs in the sky for literally thousands of years. | | 2) Aircraft can't make 90 degree turns or descend from 80,000 | feet to the deck approximately instantly. | | 3) Groups of extremely highly trained military pilots have | seen them, and the video and IR data has been released from | these encounters. You can't make 4 people in 2 aircraft | hallucinate at the same time, and fool all the | instrumentation on them (radar, IR...) and also fool the | battlespace radars on the cruisers directing them. And if you | could, that too would be kind of interesting to look at | whatever that is. | | You're repeating old points you don't understand because as | you acknowledge, you don't know the subject. Please start | with Vallee. | krferriter wrote: | > 1) This isn't a recent phenomena. People have been seeing | discs in the sky for literally thousands of years. | | People have reported talking to ghosts and angels for | thousands of years too. People's senses and memory is | fallible and can lead to misinterpretations and | misunderstanding. | | > 2) Aircraft can't make 90 degree turns or descend from | 80,000 feet to the deck approximately instantly. | | You are assuming that their reports that the objects | actually made these movements are indeed correct | perceptions of the movements seen. | | > 3) Groups of extremely highly trained military pilots | have seen them, and the video and IR data has been released | from these encounters. You can't make 4 people in 2 | aircraft hallucinate at the same time, and fool all the | instrumentation on them (radar, IR...) and also fool the | battlespace radars on the cruisers directing them. And if | you could, that too would be kind of interesting to look at | whatever that is. | | A lot of conflation going on here. The Nimitz incident did | involve 4(?) people, but not at the same time. The radar | technician (radar data has not been released) did report | seeing multiple objects on the radar, but not much else | about them such as the rapid, physics-defying movements | reported by the Fravor the pilot who reportedly saw an | object with his own eyes. The IR video captured by another | pilot also does have reasonable explanations (even | including the on-screen display sensor readings) that | counteract the claims that the object was moving as fast as | they thought it was at the time, or as the video might make | it seem. | 238475235243 wrote: | > but not at the same time. | | The initial two F-18's had two people each. | no-dr-onboard wrote: | For those that can't be bothered, the photo linked above is a | Lockheed Martin F-117, an early-era stealth fighter jet. | jimhefferon wrote: | Not a person who has looked much into this stuff, but the | videos you see online lately sure seemed impressive. FWIW, I | felt educated by videos by Mick West, who is a debunker. | [Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwa-yYCEGEc&t=1316s) is | one that a technical person such as an HN reader might like. | f02a wrote: | Just a reminder that Fermi's paradox is no longer a paradox if | "they" are already here. ;-) | | I'm not saying there are little green men in these unidentified | aircraft, but if you were part of an interstellar civilization in | this galaxy, and you identified there was a life-supporting | planet a few light years away, you'd send probes there for | sure... wouldn't you? We certainly would, if we had the means. | dadver wrote: | I don't think anthropomorphizing aliens is a good way to | speculate on how they possibly would behave. I really don't | have a better system, but I see this tendency in alot of | discussions about 'them'. (Disclaimer: I usually play as | isolationist in Stellaris) | f02a wrote: | I don't think it's anthropomorphism so much as logical | deduction. Our planet's chemical makeup has been advertising | its life-supporting properties for millions of years. Lately | we've been (perhaps foolishly) advertising ourselves to the | galaxy via radio, etc. Surely it would be interesting to | other observers in the galaxy. | | Perhaps by setting off nuclear weapons, we advertised | ourselves as a potential threat, inviting more scrutiny. | | Here's an article that discusses this concept in more detail, | if you're interested: | | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lets-search- | for-a... | | Also, Stellaris is a great game for these thought | experiments. =) | dadver wrote: | In my view, reasoning "this is what we would've done" or | placing logical deduction based on -our- understanding of a | fantasized encounter is exactly anthropomorphism. | | While I'm not a stranger to the notion that eventual | intelligent alien beings might in many regards have similar | behaviors, wants and needs as humans, I'm personally | inclined to think of aliens as much, much higher on the | kardashev scale (c.f. ghosts and angels as discussed | elsewhere in this thread) than something I personally | imagine as a couple of hundred years into-human-future | tech. | | Autonomous / AI probes is a pretty nice theory and I | somewhat adher to it myself as a techie, but it does reek | of anthropomorphism IMO. | | In either case, all our fantasies are colored by our | experiences, I guess what I'm saying is that even though I | think anthropomorphizing aliens is bad, I'm just explaining | it from my frame of reference, too. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-06-25 23:00 UTC)