[HN Gopher] Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as resid... ___________________________________________________________________ Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out Author : privateprofile Score : 83 points Date : 2021-07-21 21:22 UTC (1 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.euronews.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.euronews.com) | 11thEarlOfMar wrote: | This was recently discussed on HN: | | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27859115 | LatteLazy wrote: | Researchers find correlation assume causation... | ineptech wrote: | I think your beef is with the author of the headline, not the | study. | agallant wrote: | We use difference-in-difference models (Eq (1)) to test whether | a rise in the prevalence of Airbnb in a census tract in one | year predicts increases in crime and disorder in the following | year. ... The models control for tract-level and | year fixed effects. In order to make the parameter estimates | that follow more interpretable, we note that the average census | tract in the average year experienced 11.32 events of private | conflict, 7.68 events of public social disorder, and 28.58 | events of public violence per 1,000 residents. | | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjourn... | | I've not dug into the study enough to vouch for its quality as | a whole - but it's clear the researchers are plenty aware of | the differences between correlation and causation and are at | least attempting to address them. This is actually often the | case with scientific papers, even if it's lost in the media | coverage of them. | colinmhayes wrote: | Is it fair to say "a rise in the prevalence of Airbnb in a | census tract in one year predicts increases in crime and | disorder in the following year."? Probably yea, that just | implies a correlation. Is it fair to say "airbnb raises | violent crime in cities"? I think you'd need an rct for that | one. | agallant wrote: | The sentence you're concerned with is the headline of the | article, but isn't found in the original paper. Here's how | they close their abstract: This result | supports the notion that the prevalence of Airbnb listings | erodes the natural ability of a neighborhood to prevent | crime, but does not support the interpretation that | elevated numbers of tourists bring crime with them. | | "Supports the notion" is a far more nuanced statement, I'd | say. | | And again - I'm just responding to the idea that saying | "correlation is not causation" can allow one to dismiss any | statistical study. The study may have flaws, may overstate | its results, could be completely terrible in fact - but the | people who did it know about correlation and causation, and | refuting them requires going deeper than that. In general, | it requires looking at their paper, not the news coverage | of it. | mc32 wrote: | It's possible it might mean fewer long-time residents | means fewer people knowing the state and characteristics | of a neighborhood and thus fewer people to notice | patterns and know what's out of place and not, so fewer | people to intervene against anti-social behavior and | fewer people calling the cops, so it goes down hill. A | tourist might not care about antisocial behavior that | does not affect them. Mugging, breaking and entering, | theft, etc. Whereas locals would have a stake in the | health of their neighborhood and intervene. | Retric wrote: | Many properties spending significant time empty seems | like another huge issue. | gowld wrote: | Not really. The article cites wild speculation made by the | study authors: | | "The large-scale conversion of housing units into short-term | rentals undermines a neighborhood's social organization, and | in turn its natural ability...to counteract and discourage | crime," | | and the research reeks of p-hacking and non-reproducibility: | | Spain: >"It encourages the concentration of | tourists who, due to their characteristics, are suitable | targets for victimisation," Maldonado-Guzman said. | | but in Boston: | | > The researchers found that there was a positive correlation | between higher penetration of Airbnb properties in an area - | for example buildings containing multiple Airbnb lets - and a | rise in violence. However, crime types associated with rowdy | visitors, like drunkenness and noise complaints, as well as | private conflicts, did not increase. | | > "It's not the number of Airbnb tourists who stay in a | neighborhood that causes an increase in criminal activities," | said Professor Babak Heydari from Northeastern University. | agallant wrote: | Again, not vouching for the study as a whole - and agreed | that scientists can get a bit "creative" when trying to | actually describe and motivate causal mechanisms (in their | defense, a very hard problem). | | But I'm just talking about the statistics here, and | specifically that saying "correlation is not causation" is | a bit overused. Researchers know about it too, those four | words don't magically dismiss all statistical studies. Most | modern statistical approaches are explicitly built to try | and help address these sorts of concerns. | | There could well be other flaws with their statistics, and | even if there is causation they could be failing at | theoretically motivating or connecting it to their overall | narrative. But it takes more than four words to make that | case. | | EDIT - just acknowledging that you've since edited your | comment to add concerns about p-hacking and | reproducibility. And that may be the case - but it wasn't | what I was responding to in my initial comment. | disabled wrote: | > But I'm just talking about the statistics here, and | specifically that saying "correlation is not causation" | is a bit overused. | | I think that term has erupted into popularity with the | widespread adoption of AI, which is intellectually | bankrupt. With AI you can find correlation between | things, and draw a very basic rudimentary conclusion, but | never actually know why this happens (the causation), in | this day and age. | | For example, let's apply an unethical use of AI. Let's | say an individual goes to the grocery store weekly and | buys a dozen eggs and 1 container of dry shampoo (for | washing your hair without water), every single week for | the past 2 months. With AI and the hoarding of data, it | can be found that this individual is going to die in the | next 6 months to a 95% confidence interval. | | You get harassing ads during this, even if you are not | going to die. The ads, of course, in this day and age, | play into your hopes and fears anyways, which is abusive. | in_cahoots wrote: | It's an overused phrase because it's so often true. The | analysis acknowledges the possibility of confounding | variables but only makes a weak attempt to address it, | using demographic info, income, and homeownership rates. | This is the definition of a correlational approach. And | to make matters worse they throw in some hypothesizing | about Airbnb eroding the 'local social dynamic'. | | 'Causal linkage' is great in theory. In reality it often | shows directionality but not causality. This is a prime | example. | agallant wrote: | So, you're saying because past research has been | correlated with causality violations, we should just | assume it's the case when we see claims of this sort? ;) | | More seriously - I'm well aware of the difficulties of | causality, and use causal direction as a great | illustration of them. As I've said in pretty much every | comment here - I'm not championing the study, I simply | haven't done a deep enough pass to have a strong opinion, | and it may have any number of subtle flaws (off the cuff | my biggest concern is that they're focused on one city, | and I'd like to see similar results elsewhere, preferably | in different geographic areas and cultures). | | In other words, yes - more controls like you said. But I | am responding to the overuse of a simple statistical | argument in the face of studies that, whatever flaws they | have, are not cases of "the researcher forgot the | controls." Demographics, income, and homeownership are | actually not bad features to have I'd say, and again it | seems like most of the large claims bothering people are | from the coverage and not the research. It'd be nice for | people claiming to refute research to read what they're | refuting. | DoubleDerper wrote: | The AirBnb "effect" has directly led to increased home prices. A | home turning a profit thus becomes more important than how its | guests impact a neighborhood and community. Ignoring or spinning | the social costs is a primary goal of Airbnb's PR machine. It has | made many neighborhoods more transitory (i.e. less homesteading, | more short term rentals). Acknowledge the social costs to | community and it's not surprising to read that violent crime | rates are trending up where AirBnbs thrive. | trident5000 wrote: | We had anti-hoarding measures on masks but dont seem to have | them on homes. Every additional income property you own (and | used as such) should have an escalating hoarding penalty. | tehjoker wrote: | These penalties are never high enough to actually discourage | the behavior. It's better to just ban accumulating more than | X homes, where X could be as low as 1. | trident5000 wrote: | Im good with that idea on investment properties. Though I | have no issue with people having vacation homes. Theres a | natural limit to how many vacation homes someone can have | without a revenue source on the asset. | hamburgerwah wrote: | This is similar to how most murders in the US were caused by | Internet Explorer usage: https://i.redd.it/4h8emlr5z3c41.jpg | handmodel wrote: | The article doesn't mention it - and I can't find it anywhere - | but in any neighborhood what is the highest proportion of units | that are short-term rentals. Five percent? Ten percent in the | super touristy areas? I have no idea and even before the other | flaws in the study I am skeptical than anything short of 20% | would make an impact on any major attribute of an area. | | I see one stat in the paper that "40% of buildings had airbnb | listings in some tracts" but if the buildings had 10 units in | them each this still may mean a relatively small number of total | listings were from Airbnbs. In fact, even in Boston there are | some tracts where I suppose that the average building must have | 30+ units which would meant that if 60% of buildings had no | listing the total percentage of listings that are Airbnbs is | relatively small. | | >higher levels of violent crime did not appear immediately after | Airbnb listings became available to tourists, but rather | developed over the course of several years, the researchers said. | | Alternative theory. Every area had some Airbnbs. In neighborhoods | that were being wealthier/more popular/had more jobs decided it | was easier to just do long-term rentals. In areas where landlords | had trouble renting them out to anyone long-term (because locals | know if a neighborhood is nice or not) they turned more units | into Airbnbs because outsiders don't know/don't care. | tcoff91 wrote: | My neighborhood has got to be at least 33% vacation rentals, | with a few streets being above 50%. | jimmygrapes wrote: | Preface: this is just my opinion at this moment. | | I feel like trying to attribute specific numbers to the | article's phenomenon is sort of a waste. | | It really only takes one individual who is significantly | disruptive to change the perception of trust and safety in any | given region. The only limit (where percentages and such start | creeping in) is in the physical reach that individual has. | Anybody who has lived in the same neighborhood as "that guy" | knows this to be true. | | When "that guy" becomes more, the physical area may not change, | but the level of trust and safety might, and that itself can | propagate to other areas through gossip, news coverage, etc. | | I don't have much of a point, I just wanted to say that the | upper limit of "number of people required to make a place feel | unsafe" is exactly one. | handmodel wrote: | As you said if there is a "that guy" in a neighborhood you'd | feel unsafe and Airbnb is displacing those people. It's a | trade-off. Its not like this about adding units to a | neighborhood but specifically that there is less community if | that's the case there are lots of Airbnbs (they said in the | article that noise complains and crimes leading to rowdy | behavior did not change). | | If someone was on the fence about whether this community | effect is real - after a single study - wouldn't knowing if | 5% of units are Airbnb's are rentals versus 40% be enough to | change your conclusions? My prior is that a community cannot | be eroded by 10% of unknown people since that is standard for | any tight-knit neighborhood anyway. | redis_mlc wrote: | FYI: Bay Area motels try to size up guests to see if their room | will be used for a high school/college party pad. | | For the past 30 years. | | So if professional lodging managers with on-site security are | worried about each potential guest, I guarantee app rentals are | out of control. | zucker42 wrote: | With regards to your "alternate theory" here's a relevant line | in the paper. | | > To further test the direction of causality for the results, | we use a lag/lead analysis in the spirit of Granger [33, 34]. | This method is used when the sample includes multiple years and | uses both lead and lagged versions of the treatment variable (t | can be both positive and negative). | | I don't have enough experience in econometrics/statistics to | evaluate this technique. But I would assume they've determined | that the increase in crimes lags behind the increase in | AirBNBs. | TroisM wrote: | > but in any neighborhood what is the highest proportion of | units that are short-term rentals. | | I have seen areas close to 100%... in Hollywood, FL (not Airbnb | though...) | timwaagh wrote: | Maybe criminals like staying at Airbnb. They have the cash after | all and Airbnb can easily be used to hide ones identity. | dntrkv wrote: | They specifically point out the increase in crime is not from | the Airbnb tourists. | timwaagh wrote: | I read that a bit differently. They noted that typical | tourism related crimes did not usually increase but other | crime did. | user3939382 wrote: | Sounds like good material for this website: | https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations | tptacek wrote: | We're considering an Airbnb ordinance where I live. A major | motivating factor is that Airbnbs are used frequently here to | stage parties. It's difficult for homeowners to effectively | police their properties for these (part of the reason they're | Airbnb'ing them is that they're not living in the immediate | vicinity). | chiefalchemist wrote: | In the book "Evicted" by Matthew Desmond he discusses how high | turnover in residents negatively affects a neighborhood's sense | of community. The book is insightful. Depressing but still | insightful. | | https://www.evictedbook.com/ | | Editorial: This is one of things that led me to conclude that | poverty is more than a financial condition. In fact, more and | more I believe that poverty is a symptom of other "conditions." | Conditions that aggregate to manifest and perpetuate poverty. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-07-21 23:00 UTC)