[HN Gopher] Overthinking
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Overthinking
Author : danielsokil
Score : 81 points
Date : 2021-08-12 16:37 UTC (6 hours ago)
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| coding123 wrote:
| Ugh, this is a very complicated struggle for me, personally.
| However I have been in the Health sector for the past 15 years. I
| had a short stint at a retailer.
|
| I think Finance, Health and Social Media we can't really
| "under"think too much because at a certain point you have
| potential death in the health sector for making a mistake. You
| have the potential for a billion dollar lawsuit in the financial
| sector, and a major class action privacy lawsuit in the social
| media sector...
|
| So while I tend to think, yeah this sounds great, at the same
| time we have to be very careful about what Jr level person that
| wants to start underthinking about stuff...
|
| I think a good balance is to have old geezers overthink and young
| ones underthink and come to some middle.
| bumbada wrote:
| The problem is not overthinking but losing contact with reality.
|
| Not thinking too much, but thinking too much on the wrong things
| that are not important.
|
| You focus your time, money and effort on the wrong things.
|
| Those are not the important things because you lack knowledge
| about reality, about the system as a whole.
|
| But humans solved that problem long time ago. It is called
| "authority". If Michael Phelps tells me I am swimming wrong and
| wants to give me advice I listen. Idem If John Carmark tells me
| how to program.
|
| The problem is that humans could be tricked: Michael Phelps could
| use his authority in swimming to sell microprocesors.
|
| Noam Chomsky could use his authority in languages to sell you
| totalitarian political regimes that have failed over and over
| again.
|
| Also the fact that someone knows something very well does not
| mean that he will tell you. People can deceive you because they
| profit from that.
|
| Most con mans are experts on what they do. They know very well
| the Truth.
|
| An intellectual can sell you a bad political regime because he
| personally expects to profit from that. A youtuber can sell you a
| product because she is an affiliate and earns a commission.
|
| If you know how to compensate the biases, you can get very far
| reading the right books, and listening to the right people.
| gjvc wrote:
| "You're doing it all wrong." said someone doing nothing at all.
| mikub wrote:
| Thank you, I really liked that post. I'am 40years now and started
| to teach myself programming 4 years ago. I do a lot of
| overthinking, like "Linux or Windows", "Should I learn some C
| before Python? What about all this networking stuff, how does
| that work?". I know it probably doesn't really matter, because I
| consider myself still a beginner in programming, but it is
| sometimes really hard not to feel overwhelmed by all of this
| stuff, and just stop thinking about what, or what not to use.
| lucb1e wrote:
| That sounds more like choice stress than overthinking. I'd say
| the latter is rather where you consider something from a
| _million_ angles (overly many; overthinking) whereas the former
| is just having many questions to make a decision on because you
| don 't yet have an established language to work with and are
| simply new to this and so it's overwhelming.
| sumtechguy wrote:
| I have been doing this for about 28 years now. It is _always_
| overwhelming. There is always one bigger tech rabbit hole to
| run down. My advice, start with 1 small thing you can do. Do
| not worry if it is right or wrong. Just pick something you can
| do. Then go from there. Just today I wrote some code I had been
| putting off because I was overthinking it. I had the code
| written up in about an hour. I was _way_ overthinking it. I
| figured just splat something up and go from there. I found I
| had already worked most of it out.
|
| It is one thing I got out of agile work. Sometimes people just
| do not know what they want. But they _will_ know what they do
| not want. That can be a starting place for you to help figure
| out what they do want. Also many times something is way better
| than nothing.
|
| Also if you are struggling with python vs C. Start with python.
| It is easy to splat something up and get something running and
| see results quickly. C _used_ to be that thing. But it has a
| bit of a learning curve of 'how to compile a program' first,
| then learn to program with it. A good skill to have but when
| starting I would put it lower on the 'things to learn' scale.
|
| That little program I did earlier I could have done in
| java/C/C++/C#/js/bash/powershell/winbatch/SQL/etc/etc/etc but I
| picked python as it got me to splat something and get it done.
| It aint pretty but it gets me the info I was after. 100%
| throwaway code. My only real nitpick with python is that its
| ruthless dogmatic approach to spacing. Some consider that a
| good thing. But at first when you are learning it can be a
| drawback as you do not understand grouping and scope yet.
| gnulinux wrote:
| I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to the
| point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse to
| disregard rare risks.
|
| But we don't have the same cultural concern against
| underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their employee
| or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely overthinking is
| bad, but when underthinking can be severely dangerous, it's easy
| to see why some people overthink.
|
| I overthink everything all the time and there are still many
| things I miss and do wrong. I can't imagine trying to limit my
| thinking just for the sake of not overthinking.
|
| I'm not necessarily concerned about this blog post, but I'm
| curious if our frequent warns against overthinking can be a net
| loss?
| civilized wrote:
| It's not that thinking more is bad, it's just not always the
| best thing to be doing. You could also make a decision
| tentatively and revisit when more information is available. The
| costs of this could be much less than you fear or assume.
| WA wrote:
| - You didn't think this through
|
| - That was a stupid idea
|
| - Do you even have a plan?
|
| - Do you know what you're doing?
|
| - Darwin awards
|
| - ...
|
| I think there is a lot of cultural concern about not thinking
| enough.
| WJW wrote:
| I was going to post basically this. There are tons of people
| saying "you are underthinking this", but they almost never
| use those exact words. (BTW, to the point where my
| spellchecker flags "underthinking" as a word that does not
| exist)
| Dudeman112 wrote:
| >I overthink everything all the time and there are still many
| things I miss and do wrong
|
| Maybe you are just thinking? It only becomes overthinking when
| you have been at it for "too long". As in, it is not reasonable
| to guess that thinking more about it will be of value.
|
| Of course, knowing when that is the case is hard. IMO we should
| spend more time figuring out when it is overthinking than
| warning people about overthinking.
| gnulinux wrote:
| I mean I have a clinical problem with overthinking (I am
| diagnosed with OCD) and I'm not disputing at all there are
| cases where overthinking is irrational and unproductive. I'm
| just pointing out that just like there are risks of
| overthinking, there are also risks of underthinking. And I
| usually see advises about how to prevent overthinking, and
| not underthinking. If I were to make a perfectly rational
| choice, I'd risk overthinking more than the opposite. So,
| although balance is ideal, if a balance is not possible (you
| don't have enough data to make a perfect decision) then I
| think, rationally speaking, you want to err slightly on the
| side of overthinking.
| mdp2021 wrote:
| So this friend of mine receives a call from the Director about
| to evaluate his work, and is told "Clearly you are brilliant,
| but other colleagues are faster than you... For example,
| yesterday I asked about X, and see how A was fast in replying?"
|
| It was not easy to express that A gave a quick response with a
| largely false content.
|
| It is called rushing, it came from a culture of stopping well
| before decent quality, and it should not be a value.
| nuclearnice1 wrote:
| This great story is only half told!
|
| Is the director the hero, who gave clear feedback to her
| employees then listened to the response and corrected the
| course?
|
| Or is the director a lizard who demanded the impossible
| received junk in reply and didn't recognize it even when
| courageously told?
| mdp2021 wrote:
| These things, in different forms, happen frequently,
| unfortunately.
|
| It would be interesting to know how many times the outcome
| is "hero" and how many "lizard", under which conditions, in
| which contexts etc.
| cuddlybacon wrote:
| > But we don't have the same cultural concern against
| underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their
| employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely
| overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely
| dangerous, it's easy to see why some people overthink.
|
| We do this all the time. We just don't use the word
| "underthink". "You didn't think this through." "It sounds like
| you haven't gotten to the details yet." "Are you sure that's
| how it works?" "You need to start thinking things through."
| "You have a brain. Use it." "Pull your head out your ass." I
| think all of those phrases are suggesting the same thing
| underthink would.
| xyzelement wrote:
| I think that's exactly right.
|
| If you run into traffic and get hit by a car, the
| conversation is about that, not "under thinking" because the
| impact is painful and obvious.
|
| However, it's more subtle for someone to notice that it takes
| you 30 minutes to cross the street because you're way too
| cautious, and the impact of that ("you could be doing a lot
| more with your life than standing here") is less obvious.
| [deleted]
| steve_adams_86 wrote:
| > I overthink everything all the time and there are still many
| things I miss and do wrong.
|
| If you're like me, this is probably because the time spent
| thinking wasn't necessarily productive. It wasn't spent
| thinking about the right things, or about the things in the
| right way, with the right understanding or knowledge, etc.
|
| This is hard to overcome because at least in my case this
| occurs because of a lack of understanding of what I'm doing, or
| perhaps a worry that I won't execute on something as well as I
| believe I could. But in there lies a significant problem. My
| overthinking is motivated by 1) impressions and hypotheticals
| (could I actually execute better? And what if I don't need to
| understand the problem better? What if there is no attainable
| solution to the problem that's better enough to warrant
| researching it?) and 2) insecurities like fear of failure, fear
| of being wrong, of appearing incompetent.
|
| I often overthink because I want to do the best job I can
| (good) but... I want to do it on my first try (bad). I end up
| with massively diminishing returns on the thinking I do because
| of the first point mentioned above. I'm pursuing something that
| is arguably imaginary, and if I make good progress it's often
| pure luck rather than a calculated, predictable step forward.
|
| This is what makes it overthinking in my case. I'm wasting my
| energy and potential. I could act on what I know much sooner
| and be more productive, then revise my work with what I learn
| in the process or what I learn later. I should move forward
| with a better balance of confidence and critcal thinking, being
| sure to consider what I know carefully, how well I understand
| what I'm engaging in, but also knowing that I'm acceptably
| competent and that I'll learn more by doing.
|
| Easy to say, harder to do. But I do believe I lose a lot of my
| potential to overthinking. It becomes more neurotic than
| effective after a point. I'm often unaware that I'm even doing
| it; almost like I'm addicted to the process of analyzing,
| deconstructing, reconsidering, starting again. It feels somehow
| safer than taking the risk of making a (likely correctable)
| mistake!
|
| I agree that underthinking, or I suppose an absence of
| thinking, should be more critically considered and addressed
| when it occurs. It's a much different beast though. I believe
| they occur for perhaps entirely different reasons.
| tshaddox wrote:
| > I have never heard someone telling their employee or friend
| "you're underthinking this".
|
| I mean, probably not with those exact words, but isn't that
| essentially the feedback you would get for almost any mistake
| you make at work that was foreseeable but not foreseen? Or even
| things like a code review, where pretty much all comments are
| of the form "you might want to consider how this effects
| OtherSystemX," which is a more helpful way of saying "you might
| be failing to think about something you ought to think about."
| xyzelement wrote:
| That's exactly right. Under-thinking is often more obvious in
| terms of consequences so you talk about those.
| Yoric wrote:
| > I'm so astonished that we are so careful not to overthink, to
| the point we accept "you're overthinking it" as a valid excuse
| to disregard rare risks.
|
| Very good point.
|
| > But we don't have the same cultural concern against
| underthinking. I have never heard someone telling their
| employee or friend "you're underthinking this". Surely
| overthinking is bad, but when underthinking can be severely
| dangerous, it's easy to see why some people overthink.
|
| I believe that it's largely a cultural thing.
|
| For instance, in French companies, US Americans definitely have
| the reputation of underthinking things (which US employees feel
| is "being productive"). Reciprocally, in US companies, the
| French have a reputation for overthinking them (which French
| employees feel is "assessing risks").
|
| One more reason for which balancing cultures (and backgrounds,
| etc) is actually really important for the future of a company:
| we all have different blind spots.
| kodah wrote:
| > we all have different blind spots.
|
| I'm not going to dabble in your cultural representations
| because I think they're a bit dangerous. I will say that
| maintaining the idea that we have blind spots is good,
| overaddressing this is usually called "hand wringing" and is
| equally prohibitive. To me, it's about having a mix of the
| two. Think about things critically, but accept that you are
| not in total control of the world and that any good solution
| takes iteration and learning.
| 908B64B197 wrote:
| In America, if there's no law against it you can do it.
|
| In France, if there's no law allowing it, you can't do it.
| trhway wrote:
| the issue is that those meta-tools - fallacies, razors,
| poe/godwin/etc. laws, "otherthinking", etc. - are primarily
| intended for people to be able to improve the quality and
| manage the deficiencies of their own thinking, and instead the
| people weaponize it to use against other people's thinking.
| 123pie123 wrote:
| I get called out by others for overthinking - until the risks
| I've pointed out become reality
|
| It's all relative - one person can be thought of overthinking and
| the other person can be thought of as a 'cowboy' and just winging
| it
| andrewksl wrote:
| I guess the difference between an overthinker and having
| foresight is the rate of false positives?
| xyzelement wrote:
| That's a great way to put it.
|
| There right balance of action and caution is the thing that
| enables you to move forward quickly without blowing up.
|
| It also "takes all kinds" on a team since different people
| have a knack for one or the other. The problem happens
| because most people fall in love with their preference and
| are blind to its downsides.
|
| A quick tell is - whenever someone's justification for
| something blowing up is "oh but I have a bias for action" --
| they are basically oblivious to their recklessness and
| underthinking. Whenever someone says "oh but I am much more
| cautious and thoughtful than these cowboys" they are
| oblivious to how little they do (vs could be doing) because
| they are paralyzed by overthinking.
|
| The person I like to work with is the one who says "man, I
| have a bias for over/under thinking but I try to catch myself
| in situations where it's not appropriate"
| samuell wrote:
| I think this advice assumes a lot about the reader. I find that
| quite a fraction of people rather think too little, often sold on
| some distorted misconception of "agile".
|
| I guess there is an art of thinking through things at a
| reasonable amount, knowing when to move forward, and when to stop
| again and think more.
|
| Sure, learning this art surely has to be done to a large part by
| experience, so the points in the article has their merits, but
| things, people and circumstances are not always the same.
| mtc010170 wrote:
| We're all guilty of overthinking sometimes and under-thinking
| others.
|
| Of course, context is everything.. so perhaps the blanket
| statement is a useful reminder for the author.. but also maybe
| dangerous advice for those reading who this just gives license to
| continue not putting enough thought into things they should.
|
| A bias towards action might be a good default, but how many of us
| are dealing with untenable situations stemming from rushed
| decisions?
|
| So be careful with this advice.. and do your best to know
| yourself and the situation.
| zoomablemind wrote:
| I find that overthinking is a byproduct of overly complex
| expectations.
|
| These expectations are often externally imposed either by
| industry or by our own experiences.
|
| This dissonance is exacerbated by tools which require as much
| complex skills or lack the expected complexity in their output.
|
| "Hello world" town reminds a hopelessly overpopulated slums
| detached from glitzy shine of a megapolis that one can experience
| but not truly become one.
| WJW wrote:
| If I can recommend anything in this area, it would be the book
| "Art of action" by Stephen Bungay. It examines in quite a lot of
| detail how the military has "solved" the problem of having to
| make decisions without perfect information, and how you can
| improve the structure of your decision-making process when you
| find you are getting bogged down in process and bureaucracy.
| t0mbstone wrote:
| I overthink things and end up in analysis paralysis, not for any
| of the reasons listed, but because I don't want to have to
| untangle an incorrect mess later on.
| majormajor wrote:
| That feels a lot like the "marketing" one. I think the belief
| that if you just think enough, you won't have to untangle
| anything later, is almost always incorrect. I've worked on a
| lot of systems that were _very_ thought through but also ended
| up _very_ messy - in large part because circumstances and needs
| changed over the years in ways that would be near-impossible to
| plan for _all_ of them.
|
| But people selling framework X want to sell you the idea that
| if you just pick the right tool (theirs), you won't have those
| problems!
|
| (This is somewhat circular, though: if you had said something
| like "I think about problems a lot because I want to avoid
| untangling incorrect messes" then that doesn't have to be
| _over_ thinking. But once you hit analysis paralysis, building
| nothing for an extended period becomes itself an incorrect
| decision. There's a fine line between giving a problem due
| consideration and not being able to stop thinking about it.)
| CountDrewku wrote:
| There comes a point where you're only thinking and not doing. If
| your thinking is paralyzing you into taking no action that's
| "overthinking". Just do something even if it's wrong sometimes.
| chaos_emergent wrote:
| I remember a period of time before I could confidently call
| myself a productive programmer in which I'd spend 90% of my time
| trying to understand best practices instead of building shit. It
| came from a place of wanting to "get it right" as education had
| incentivized rather than "being valuable" as capitalism rewards.
|
| I got out of that frame by working with and watching other doers.
| I think real education happens when we see masters practicing
| their form, not when we symbolically learn about the form
| legrande wrote:
| > I think real education happens when we see masters practicing
| their form
|
| It's worth being 'in the trenches' just watching, not having to
| do much, just observing how the nitty gritty tasks are done.
| Just like an internship: you mostly watch, not commit to
| complex tasks. Unless you are an intern & want to risk it and
| accidentally mess up the company's code. There are so many
| companies wrecked by interns' bad decisions, but luckily most
| of them bounce back from that with grace.
| roland35 wrote:
| When I feel myself approaching overthinking, one strategy I try
| is to identify if there are different requirements or criteria I
| may have missed and write them down. A lot of decisions involve
| complicated trade-offs, and it is often too easy to punch holes
| in ideas, move on to the next idea, punch holes in that one, and
| end up back where you started!
|
| By ranking the relative importance of requirements you can at
| least try to optimize for the most important requirement, and be
| able to see that other ideas may be better for other requirements
| but not the most important one!
| aminicam wrote:
| brilliant
| afarrell wrote:
| One struggle I have is how to simultaneously embrace uncertainty
| and take responsibility for the impact of my actions. A high
| amount of uncertainty makes me feel like I'm a chef taking
| chicken thighs out of a warm fridge.
|
| I think there is a time to just say "no" -- even if we fear that
| others will accuse us of overthinking.
| wintermutestwin wrote:
| When it is truly important that I show up somewhere at a
| particular time, I factor in the long estimate of drive time
| and add 10 minutes. I am late <.00001 of the time. That is
| embracing uncertainty and taking responsibility.
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