[HN Gopher] Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge ... ___________________________________________________________________ Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases Author : belter Score : 33 points Date : 2021-08-21 20:41 UTC (2 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.npr.org) (TXT) w3m dump (www.npr.org) | dom96 wrote: | There is a similar story in the UK. This isn't all that | surprising for the UK at least (I'm not familiar with how Israel | is doing things): "freedom day" was now a month ago so of course | more infections will happen. | | The questions now are: will we see a variant that can escape the | vaccines? Will the vaccines becomes significantly less effective | at stopping hospitalisation/death within a few months? | linuxhansl wrote: | Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... | | 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining | 11.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. | | The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel | does by no means indicate that they are not. | hn_throwaway_99 wrote: | Don't you mean the remaining 21.2%? | golemiprague wrote: | > Only vaccinated Palestinians are given permits to enter Israel | and Israeli settlements | | Many cross from the west bank without permissions, there are | known opening in the fence there and the army is not really | stopping them since there aren't many terror attacks in the last | years. | ajay-b wrote: | Is it possible The vaccine has the opposite effect on some | people, rather than helping them to defend, it makes it easier | for them to become infected? | heavyset_go wrote: | Some vaccine candidates can do this, but it would have been | caught early on as it's one of the things researchers will look | out for. | | There are some citations here[1] when it comes to this | phenomenon and COVID vaccines. It hasn't been observed in | clinical trials, nor after mass inoculations. | | [1] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation#Antibo... | mixedCase wrote: | What mechanism are you suggesting would be at fault for such an | outcome? | wayneftw wrote: | From my own experience, I see that vaccinated people are less | fearful of mixing with large groups of people. That's one way | the vaccinated can be more easily infected. | | It's not a physiological effect but I think it's probably the | crux of the whole issue here. | jonplackett wrote: | Behaviour-wise this is definitely true - not for everyone, | but many. But I don't think it wouldn't matter for the | comparison because they're looking at rates of serious | illness, rather than absolute number of people catching it. | | Saying that, if seriousness of disease is related to | initial exposure amount, perhaps being vaxxed and overly | brave could mean you get a higher initial dose? | recursivedoubts wrote: | A possible mechanism I have seen mentioned is Antibody | Dependent Enhancement: | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement | | I am not a biologist and have no opinion on the matter, I | have just seen it mentioned online. | belter wrote: | Interesting. It seems that this was actually a concern and | considered during initial development of COVID vaccines. It | seems it was considered not likely to happen but there is | this interesting part here from 2019 that caught my | attention: | | "Consensus summary report for CEPI/BC March 12-13, 2020 | meeting: Assessment of risk of disease enhancement with | COVID-19 vaccines" | | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247514/ | | "A syndrome of "disease enhancement" has been reported in | the past for a few viral vaccines where those immunized | suffered increased severity or death when they later | encountered the virus or were found to have an increased | frequency of infection. Animal models allowed scientists to | determine the underlying mechanism for the former in the | case of Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and have | been utilized to design and screen new RSV vaccine | candidates. Because some Middle East respiratory syndrome | (MERS) and SARS-CoV-1 vaccines have shown evidence of | disease enhancement in some animal models, this is a | particular concern for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. | | To address this challenge, the Coalition for Epidemic | Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and the Brighton | Collaboration (BC) Safety Platform for Emergency vACcines | (SPEAC) convened a scientific working meeting on March 12 | and 13, 2020 of experts in the field of vaccine immunology | and coronaviruses to consider what vaccine designs could | reduce safety concerns and how animal models and | immunological assessments in early clinical trials can help | to assess the risk. This report summarizes the evidence | presented and provides considerations for safety assessment | of COVID-19 vaccine candidates in accelerated vaccine | development." | polotics wrote: | Can someone who knows more than me comment on my impression | that the likelihood of ADE is much reduced with the very | narrow (ie. spike-only) targeting of mRNA vaccines? | belter wrote: | From a purely scientific point a view, there is no reason for | the post above (from ajay-b) to be downvoted. | r00fus wrote: | Wild assertions without data or references are simply | trolling. | dogma1138 wrote: | A question isn't a wild assertion. | r00fus wrote: | A wild assertion can indeed be posed as a question. It's | a dark pattern rampantly used in conspiracy circles. | linuxhansl wrote: | Because this hypothesis has already been shown to be false | numerous times. | dogma1138 wrote: | And the GP was asking a question, not stating it as a fact. | linuxhansl wrote: | A question that would take 2-3 minutes of Googling to | answer. I did not downvote that question, but I still | think it didn't have any place here. | bsaul wrote: | i'm amazed at the number of people still believing high | vaccination rates will get us rid of the covid, despite all the | evidences of the previous year pointing in the opposite | directions (people getting infected multiple times in a short | period, variants mutating the spike protein a lot, and more | recently vaccinated people still proven to be both carrier and | transmitter of the virus). The final nail in the coffin being | country-sized experiments like israel, showing no sign of any | kind of victory over the epidemic. | | What surprise me most is the slow rate at which government adjust | their strategy.. As an example, my country (france) still is deep | in its "vaccine pass" controversial measure, splitting the | country in half, and the government seems to show no sign of | hesitation or even doubts whether it really is the best thing to | do... They're running this strategy based on 6-months old | assertions, and half the population doesn't seem to notice it. | polote wrote: | Green pass in France is not a health measure but a politics | one. They will stop it if they think thats going to prevent | macron be re elected and keep it if it will help him be | reelected. | | There are not one valid health reason to let people not wear a | mask if they are vaccinated (if you believe mask works as the | governement thinks) | djtriptych wrote: | ???? Isreal's data proves that the vaccine helps reduce serious | disease related to coronavirus infection. | bsaul wrote: | sure, i'm not talking about preventing vulnerable people from | getting a serious case. This part seems to be working just | fine, even in france. Hospitals aren't saturated anymore | (except in some islands were people didn't vaccinate | themselves for various reasons). | | It seems to me that life could already be "back to normal" | here, simply making sure old / obese people get regular | shots. | | It's the long-term strategy of wanting to get everyone a | vaccine, including children who have close to 0 risks, in the | hope of getting rid of the virus that i'm talking about. | linuxhansl wrote: | I'm afraid I do not follow... | | 1. 11.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) | make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when | you remove the immune compromised from the statistic. | | 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to | reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around | 85%. | | 3. While vaccinated people still can get sick (and why won't | they, the immune system can only start to act after | encountering the pathogen), but... the time of being infectious | is lower and (see above) hospitalization and death rates are | much lower. | | Upon (very basic) scrutiny the numbers from Israel point to the | high efficiency of the vaccines not the opposite. | | And last, what would have us do instead? | creato wrote: | > That means only 58% of Israel's total citizenry is fully | vaccinated. Experts say that's not nearly high enough. | | 58% isn't that much higher than most other countries. France | actually has a _higher_ vaccination rate at 61%! So I 'm not | sure what you think the "country-sized experiment" is. | bsaul wrote: | that's a very different take on the situation than what | israel experts were saying just a few months ago. They | reopened everything thanking the vaccine for that, and being | happy of being the first country to heavily bet on mass | vaccination. (note that the country is closed to people who | don't have a pass, and people have to quarantine when they | arrive). | | It looks a bit like they're changing the narrative now that | the next wave is coming, saying vaccination rates aren't high | enough after all (i'm curious to see one expert provide a | definitive number on the "good enough" threshold, based on | models or anything else, but maybe 100% it is ?) | GeekyBear wrote: | Some information on what groups are seeing a serious breakthrough | infection. | | >As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or | critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of | the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were | 60 or older. | | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-... | | and | | >comorbidities were more frequent in patients with vaccine | breakthrough infections in comparison to a large case series on | unvaccinated hospitalized patients - including hypertension, | diabetes, heart failure, chronic kidney diseases, chronic lung | diseases, dementia and cancer. Moreover, 40% of the patients were | immunocompromised. | | https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210713/Israeli-study-of-... | | So the serious infections among the vaccinated are concentrated | in those who are older, immunocompromised, or those who have | other conditions already known to be linked to having a more | serious case. | danmaz74 wrote: | > The good news is that among Israel's serious infections on | Thursday of this week, according to Health Ministry data, the | rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 | (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully | vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of | serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd | (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among | vaccinated people in that age bracket. | peter422 wrote: | Under 60 is not a specific enough age group for comparison of | vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases. A 55 year old and a 12 year | old have vastly different odds of serious disease, so much so | that an unvaccinated 12 year old is less likely to get severe | disease than a vaccinated 55 year old. | | This easily could be biased by the older end of that range | being significantly more vaccinated than the younger end. | | If you want to compare vaccinated efficacy, look for 10 year | age group comparisons. Anything else is really leaving you wide | open to misleading interpretations. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-08-21 23:00 UTC)