[HN Gopher] Seeking early signals of dementia in driving and cre... ___________________________________________________________________ Seeking early signals of dementia in driving and credit scores Author : tysone Score : 65 points Date : 2021-08-26 18:13 UTC (4 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com) | [deleted] | neonate wrote: | https://archive.is/x5U1H | vmception wrote: | Regarding the credit scores study, this may not have to do with | _forgetting_ payments as a precursor to dementia, it may have to | do with costly medical issues that was the precursor to dementia | which caused the financial stress | Ozzie_osman wrote: | I'm curious if driving in particular could predict other things, | like ADHD / bipolar. Having had a few friends on the spectrum, it | definitely felt like their driving patterns were quite different | than other people on the road. | N1H1L wrote: | I am curious. There may very well be patterns. Like that recent | article where an algorithm could guess the ethnicity of | patients from X-rays, such patterns may very well be present in | driving | huge87 wrote: | What did you observe in your friends' driving patterns that was | different? I'm very curious. | SV_BubbleTime wrote: | I had a commanding officer in the military who was showing signs | of dementia. | | He was making... let's say, very bad tactical decisions. In the | game way past his prime. But this was a whole different level. | | We were going to let his family know but it turns out it was | becoming obvious in other areas. He was doing weird things like | leaving doors open, eating a lot of sweets, and being paranoid | about washing his hands all the time. | | Not a good scenario, really crazy condition. Sad for the people | that got left to deal with him. | giantg2 wrote: | This other article about writing style risks is interesting. If | it's accurate, then I will probably have early onset alzheimer's. | I miss articles, misspell, and repeat words. I'm only in my | 30s... | | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/health/alzheimers-predict... | ImaCake wrote: | A word of caution about machine learning models in academia. The | advertised predictive ability or AUC is often inflated, sometimes | by a lot. I am not sure why, but I imagine it comes down to the | usual p-hacking incentives. Maybe it is because you only need to | apply your model to more than one "independent" dataset before | you publish a paper. Or simply that academics in diverse fields | often lack the nuanced knowledge to realise their model is | predicting based on some experimental artifact in their data. | | Digital phenotyping has a lot of promise. But considering the | unusually conservative old boys club that seems to dominate | alzheimers research I would be particularly suspicious of any | research on the disease. | timy2shoes wrote: | Fantastic point. Another thing about academic ml models is that | they're commonly evaluated on in-sample data. For example, | medical AI devices are commonly evaluated on data coming from | the same source/hospital that the training data comes from (see | https://www-cdn.law.stanford.edu/wp- | content/uploads/2021/04/...). This leads to over-confidence in | the performance because of overfitting of batch effects. | jacobkg wrote: | My grandmother had very serious dementia. I remember a year or so | before we were aware of it that she almost ran a cyclist off the | road which was very uncharacteristic. | Baeocystin wrote: | One of the early signs that foreshadowed my mother's decline | was the deterioration of her driving skills, and this preceded | almost all other noticeable symptoms. | | Driving is a complex skill that requires rapid, continuous | sensory integration to perform well. It makes sense to me that | it is something that would first show a deficit. | ben_w wrote: | One of the early signs in both my mother's and grandmother's | Alzheimer's was forgetting to pay (UK) road tax. Somehow both | of them managed to get away with being on the road for the next | six months, before the rest of the family found out and | intervened. | | At least in my mother's case, this was far from the only thing | that suddenly became wrong with her driving; she also developed | a fear of going over about 50 mph and using gears above third, | and one sign we only recognised in retrospect was that she | forgot how maps worked. | bryanrasmussen wrote: | >Regarding the credit scores study, this may not have to do with | forgetting payments as a precursor to dementia, | | or my ADHD regularly costing me late fees. I'm ok with it until | some company turns out to be just as disorganized as me, because | they never have to pay for their foibles. | echelon wrote: | > ADHD regularly costing me late fees | | The world is set up against us. | | That, and the fact that the world revolves around _morning | people_. I 'm still writing code at 3 AM, and you want me to be | up for a 10:00 meeting? | | I'm lucky to be in a career where I can avoid this stuff, but | it doesn't fix the rest of the rigidly broken world. | steve_adams_86 wrote: | One thing I've found profoundly useful is not thinking of the | world as set up against me, but more so that I'm my own worst | enemy. I'm set up against myself. | | Nothing external will change, so there's no sense fretting | about my environment naturally suiting my psychology, because | that'll never happen. That's a fantasy. I'd code til 3am too | (and have, far too many times) but I've come to believe my | job in the present is all about setting up future me for | success. Present me tends to have shitty ideas about what to | do in the present, but plenty of great ideas about what I | should have done in the past or should do in the future. | Without being critical of present me, I'm likely to fuck | things up properly. I need to focus on the scaffolding for | those great ideas for future me and less on the shitty ones | for present me. That guy is already a lost cause. | | My strategy is one of delayed gratification, which my brain | hates. I lay down with a book at 9 or 10pm because it'll put | me to sleep in a hurry even though my brain is typically | WIRED when I lay down. Yeah it doesn't feel like bed time, | but it sure as shit is bed time. I'll do other things like | keep shitty food out of my home, because otherwise I'll find | really good reasons to eat (too much) of it. I put EVERYTHING | in my calendar because although present me is positive future | me will remember, that's totally incorrect and I actually do | need frequent reminders of pretty much everything I'm not | immediately focused on or interested in. I leave my phone | behind because even though I'm sure I won't use it too much, | yeah, I definitely will. Expect the worst from yourself and | prepare accordingly. | | So, the world isn't my problem, I am! I'm my worst enemy. The | path to defeating myself is doing a lot of stuff I don't feel | like doing. I like this approach because rather than being | mad at the world for my failures, I'm forced to do something | about it. | | That's my experience, anyway. | echelon wrote: | > I'm set up against myself. | | You're not the problem. The world is. | | Don't blame yourself. | salt-thrower wrote: | > Nothing external will change | | Decades of activism disagree. One example: people in | wheelchairs used to be called "invalids" and pretty much | couldn't get anywhere in public. Then the ADA was signed, | and public spaces are much more accessible as a result. | | A healthy balance between stoic acceptance and dutiful | activism is the optimal approach, I think. | quantumBerry wrote: | >One example: people in wheelchairs used to be called | "invalids" and pretty much couldn't get anywhere in | public. | | I suppose all the photographs of President Franklin | Roosevelt traveling all across the world, entering the | governor's office and ultimately the whitehouse were | fakes since these all happened before the ADA. | | The fact one of our very active presidents was confined | to a wheelchair really puts a hole in your ADA theory of | invalids. | bcassedy wrote: | Is your counterpoint really that FDR was able to go | places in public? | | He notoriously hid his disability with a combination of | canes, braces, and family members to hold him upright and | even simulate walking. | | He also had a tremendous amount of power and money to | force or provide his own special accommodations. Like | having an army of secret service agents to help him deal | with stairs. | quantumBerry wrote: | I quote you as follows: people in wheelchairs "pretty | much couldn't get anywhere in public." | | I assert that you are quite wrong, and I provide you an | example of it happening. We shouldn't discount his | achievements. | bcassedy wrote: | "People pretty much couldn't go to space" "Well actually | Richard Branson went to space. That puts a big hole in | your people pretty much couldn't go to space argument now | doesn't it!?" | | The example of a single person with nearly endless | resources accomplishing something does nothing to refute | a point about the masses. Heck, the "pretty much" | qualifier is an acknowledgement that some people got | around despite their condition. | | I assert that you are not discussing this in good faith | and won't be engaging with you further. | quantumBerry wrote: | Wow, pretty much anything can be refuted when you operate | entirely against a wondrous straw man. I didn't say a | word about space. It would be pretty dumb to say people | couldn't pretty much go to space. | | You've made abundantly clear that your "good faith" | worries about others are in fact a projection of your own | problem with keeping the good faith. | [deleted] | elliekelly wrote: | You mean like the ADHD obstacle course we have to complete in | order to get medication? It's maddening. | bspammer wrote: | When I was a teenager I was really hoping that when I grew up | I would stop being sleepy in the morning and then becoming | wide awake around 11pm. | | Hasn't changed at all. Everyone's got some way that society | doesn't work for them though. Being left handed, too short, | too tall, a minority, wheelchair-bound etc. All things | considered I have it pretty good. | steve_adams_86 wrote: | Yeah, 100% - my dull brain has somehow managed to give me a | relatively comfortable life. Plenty of problems crop up but | I've got food, a family, a job. I used to resent this brain | quite a bit but I've come to like it a lot. It could have | been worse. | hunter2_ wrote: | As someone with no relevant diagnosis but who considers their | memory and attention to be occasionally questionable, I find a | solution (not always attainable, but I try) in mustering up the | energy to create [recurring, if applicable] calendar entries | with reminders. Anything to streamline and reduce the friction | associated with doing so, such as using voice assistants as | much as possible, is super helpful. The slightest bit of | thought along the lines of "I'll probably remember" to get out | of documenting the reminder is a major catalyst for failure. | | Therefore, I'd consider the quantity/frequency of such | reminders (detectable by cloud calendar/reminder providers) to | be an early indicator of such issues. | Spooky23 wrote: | My wife and I have a paper calendar and we have a meeting | every Wednesday where we check in and record bills and make | payments. We get 15-20 bills a month for reasons. | | We also moved all bills back to paper, as it's easier to | track that than various email based accounts. | syntheticnature wrote: | I've long used paper with tracking as one of the reasons, | but due to the pandemic's effects one actually wound up a | month late (and other attempts to keep track also missed | it). | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: | I have ADHD and I don't think I have a single bill that is not | on autopay. The only exception was the property tax on my | house, until the time I made the expensive mistake of | forgetting to pay it. Then I refinanced my house and had them | pay the property tax out of escrow. I'm pretty sure I could | fall off the face of the earth and none of my creditors would | notice until my job stopped paying me and my checking account | ran dry. | JoeAltmaier wrote: | I was part of a project to measure reaction times in a primitive | driving simulator. Accelerator, brake, steering wheel from a | gaming setup. You drove down a straight road, some roadside | scenery went by. Every so often you went through a gate. The gate | would sometimes close just as you got there. Measured whether you | hit the brake in time. Simple, a little challenging. The idea | was, for drivers to self-measure if they were still able to drive | safely. Tried to pitch it to an insurance company that rhymes | with Slate Charm. | | They acted like it was poison. They didn't want to even appear to | be trying to select out older customers. The legal trouble they'd | have, discriminating according to age (or even appearing to try) | would have brought a landslide down on them. | gowld wrote: | How long ago was this? | | Now, insurance companies put trackers in cars and adjust rates | based on actual speeding and braking. | paulryanrogers wrote: | Could be a market for BMVs since they're responsible for | license renewal. And they already test eye sight. | MontyCarloHall wrote: | Huh, if they can legally justify explicitly discriminating | based on sex and age (younger men generally pay more than | younger women, while older women generally pay more than older | men) I'm surprised they couldn't figure out a way to | discriminate based on age alone. | | Edit: here [0] is a breakdown of car insurance costs, | stratified by age/sex. Young people pay by far the most, with | premiums steadily declining until age 50 and then rising again. | So I'm not sure what their objection might have been, since | they already do charge old people more (presumably at a level | accurately reflecting their relative risk). | | [0] https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-age-affects-auto- | insurance-... | maxerickson wrote: | Of course they discriminate on age. They don't want to make | it clear to the people they are doing it too. | MontyCarloHall wrote: | > They don't want to make it clear to the people | | Wouldn't a driving sim be the exact opposite of that? | | "To make our premiums accurately reflect _your_ driving | habits and avoid lumping you into crude demographics like | the other insurers, we offer all our customers an | opportunity to take a spin in our driving sim and get a | truly personalized rate reflecting your excellent driving | habits." | scottlamb wrote: | Worse: couldn't figure out a way to "discriminate" based on a | bona fide measure of driving ability that (I imagine) only | loosely correlates with age. | | But age discrimination laws/enforcement are seemingly one- | way, and the elderly vote and sue, so... | bpodgursky wrote: | In the US, it is legal (in a hiring context) to discriminate | against young people, but not against old people. For better | or for worse, it's not parallel. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-08-26 23:00 UTC)