[HN Gopher] The big alcohol study that didn't happen
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The big alcohol study that didn't happen
        
       Author : Amorymeltzer
       Score  : 192 points
       Date   : 2021-10-04 15:34 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (dynomight.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (dynomight.net)
        
       | h2odragon wrote:
       | If the prohibitionists and the distillers can agree on protocols
       | to collect and publish data, to the point they're both willing to
       | fund it; then yes that certainly seems worth doing and then
       | everyone gets to argue about that data set for the next century.
       | 
       | Isn't there another reading of this story that goes "NYT spikes
       | cool thing for quick sensation?" File it with "Slate Star Codex"
       | and other examples of predatory reporting there.
        
         | elmomle wrote:
         | Could you provide some good examples of predatory reporting
         | from Slate Star Codex? I don't doubt you, just genuinely
         | curious.
        
           | sixo wrote:
           | Likely referring to NYT's piece _on_ SSC
           | (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/technology/slate-star-
           | cod..., summarized in
           | https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-
           | my-... )
        
           | GavinMcG wrote:
           | The commenter meant that SSC was the _subject_ of (i.e. an
           | example of) the New York Times 's predatory reporting.
        
         | shkkmo wrote:
         | The first NYT article was problematic and more of an editorial,
         | however the second follow up article did expose real issues
         | with the "firewall" that deserved to be brought to light.
        
       | searine wrote:
       | This seems like a success story for government science :
       | 
       | 1. A shady dude and his business colleagues try to shoe-horn in a
       | preconceived conclusion into a large RCT and co-opt the NIH brand
       | for authenticity.
       | 
       | 2. They have some initial success but once enrollment starts a
       | variety of red-flags are raised and the whole thing is canned
       | before any results are produced or large amounts of money spent.
       | 
       | 3. Shady dues reputation is ruined, people are fired, and new
       | safe guards are in place.
        
       | jrochkind1 wrote:
       | I love this article so much, the tone, the perspective, the
       | research.
       | 
       | I love how he mounts a reasonable defense of everyone involved,
       | then proceeds to argue against his own defense and tear them
       | down.
       | 
       | I want to be friends with the author.
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | I agree. I love reading articles like this because it forces me
         | to question what I think is the right perspective rather than
         | just digest whatever perspective the author is feeding me.
         | 
         | I don't know why more journalists don't write like this. Is it
         | just that people prefer being told what the right and wrong
         | opinion to have is? Or is it simply because most journalists
         | care more about reporting their opinion than trying to fairly
         | represent both sides of the story in question? I guess it could
         | be argued some opinions are so clearly wrong that they don't
         | deserve the benefit of the doubt, but even then there is often
         | a lot more nuance than is typically reported.
        
           | jrochkind1 wrote:
           | > Or is it simply because most journalists care more about
           | reporting their opinion
           | 
           | I mean... this piece actually has much _more_ opinion in it
           | than  "journalism" is "supposed" to, doesn't it? It's an
           | opinion piece, not a piece of journalism, although he does a
           | bit of research for it.
           | 
           | So I find it a bit confusing to ask for "more journalists" to
           | write like this, while also saying you think most journalists
           | care _more_ about reporting their opinion than OP... OP
           | actually centers it 's opinion pretty directly, no? Mostly I
           | think this piece is doing something that is not what
           | journalism is even expected to do at all.
           | 
           | But to be sure the distinction between "journalism" and
           | "opinion" is pretty confusing and blurry these days (because
           | opinion rather than journalism both gets more clicks and is
           | cheaper!). I'm not sure the solution to problems with
           | journalism lies in asking journalists to write journalism
           | more like an opinion piece, even a very well-written opinion
           | piece!
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | See that's the thing, I think we've painted journalism as
             | existing on some imaginary spectrum of "just the facts
             | ma'am" which is good, and "editorializing with an agenda"
             | which is bad.
             | 
             | But by far my favorite pieces of journalism are dripping
             | with opinion and character and full of bias. The X factor
             | that makes the result, to me way less biased than most
             | journalism, is that they are introspective of their own
             | biases, display empathy toward everyone involved, argue in
             | good faith for everyone involved, and draws their own
             | conclusion from the results of their imaginary argument
             | with their crew of alter-egos.
             | 
             | It takes something special (and a lot of practice) to argue
             | for someone you disagree with in such a way that that
             | someone would say you did a good job.
        
       | ivraatiems wrote:
       | This seems like a great writeup, but I'm a little skeeved by the
       | genericness of the website it's on and the fact that absolutely
       | no information about the author which might let me discern their
       | intentions, biases, prior viewpoints, etc. is available that I
       | can find.
       | 
       | Does anyone know anything more about the person who writes at
       | this site?
       | 
       | (I know, I know, it doesn't matter who they are if their
       | arguments are good. I'm just at the point where I pretty much
       | have to assume bad faith until proven good faith when faced with
       | any new source of online information.)
        
       | WhisperingShiba wrote:
       | Does anyone actually know anyone who drinks more than 2 drinks
       | every day? The only people I knew like that were homeless, and I
       | was more concerned about other issues with them, than the
       | drinking (which was more of a symptom than a cause, imo).
       | 
       | Am I naive for thinking that everyone knows that Alcohol is not
       | good for them? Funding research into it seems like a waste of
       | money, since I also believe that people should be 100% free to
       | ingest whatever they want. You can't ban alcohol, its too easy to
       | make. I barely drink, but its undeniably important to our
       | culture.
       | 
       | e: Apparently I am quite naive. My crowd is more likely to have
       | cannabis addictions than alcohol.
        
         | bityard wrote:
         | I'm not and have never been an alcoholic. But I have have
         | family members that are (or rather were, before they died from
         | it) and often felt that it's something that I could easily slip
         | into myself if I didn't make a conscious effort to avoid all
         | non-social drinking. So alcoholism is something I have spent
         | some time researching.
         | 
         | > Does anyone actually know anyone who drinks more than 2
         | drinks every day? The only people I knew like that were
         | homeless
         | 
         | My uncle died a couple years ago. He was a functional alcoholic
         | and workaholic for almost his whole life, until his age caught
         | up with him and he couldn't work anymore. Then he just became
         | an alcoholic. He was a multi-millionaire when he died, so he
         | could have afforded the help if he wanted it and could have
         | admitted to anyone (not least of all himself) that he had a
         | problem.
         | 
         | Alcohol itself is not a problem. Alcohol ADDICTION is a very
         | serious problem that does not get anywhere near the attention
         | and seriousness that it should.
         | 
         | > Am I naive for thinking that everyone knows that Alcohol is
         | not good for them?
         | 
         | Yes. And of those who know, many simply don't care and value
         | the buzz more than the health downsides. Or feel helpless to
         | stop due to the grip of addition. Or are so far gone that they
         | secretly hope for an early death.
         | 
         | > You also can't ban alcohol.
         | 
         | I agree that a flat-out alcohol ban would be a failure. It was
         | already tried and not only did it not work and caused all kinds
         | of strife, it essentially gave rise to organized crime. If it
         | was tried today, it would look identical to the War on Drugs
         | which did nothing to help society, lined the pockets for
         | various government organizations, contractors, and politicians,
         | and filled prisons with non-violent offenders.
         | 
         | > I barely drink, but its undeniably important to our culture.
         | 
         | I'll agree that it is "important" in the sense that it is
         | omnipresent in many people's daily lives. Even if I don't drink
         | regularly, many friends, families, and neighbors do. People
         | drink on the TV shows I watch. Co-workers make jokes about how
         | many beers it takes to debug a particular program. People I
         | know die directly or indirectly from it.
         | 
         | But is it a necessary part of any culture? Absolutely not. And
         | just to be clear, I'm not arguing for a ban or any other
         | method, but when I ask myself whether the world would be better
         | off without mass alcohol consumption, the answer is an
         | unequivocal yes.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | > Does anyone actually know anyone who drinks more than 2
         | drinks every day?
         | 
         | Both my parents, who were successful professionals, did this.
         | 
         | I wasn't even aware it was abnormal.
        
         | scrapcode wrote:
         | To be honest, I know more that do than do not. Especially if
         | you take weekend drinking and spread that out as an average
         | throughout the week.
        
         | EngineerBetter wrote:
         | Yes. Admittedly they both work in bars/breweries.
         | 
         | It'd be interesting to see the experience of folks in
         | continental Europe, where I gather wine with meals is much more
         | commonplace.
        
         | ashtonkem wrote:
         | I'd highly recommend you actually do the calculation of what a
         | "standard drink" is. You might be surprised. In my garage
         | fridge is a pint sized can of alcoholic Kombucha at 7% ABV.
         | Higher than most beers, for sure, but not unusual for some
         | craft beers in my experience. Back of the envelope calculations
         | has that at 1.8 standard drinks, very close to the limit.
        
         | sodapopcan wrote:
         | I sure do. There was a time in my life where I was getting
         | properly drunk every single night for years and held down a
         | programming job the whole time (and I still do!). I know
         | several colleagues who drink far more than two drinks a day and
         | are all productive and well liked at their jobs (all ate in
         | their late-30s to mid-60s).
         | 
         | Sometimes people spend years trying to find the right
         | prescription drug to quiet their daemons (with awful side-
         | effects along the way) but oh so often, good ol' over-the-
         | counter alcohol JustWorks.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nkurz wrote:
         | > Apparently I am quite naive. My crowd is more likely to have
         | cannabis addictions than alcohol.
         | 
         | Where are you located? My impression --- which I'd like to see
         | better evidence for --- is that in the US, heavier drinking is
         | more prevalent in higher social classes on the East Coast than
         | the West Coast.
        
         | shkkmo wrote:
         | The short answer is 1 in 5 people in the US drink more than 2
         | drinks per day on average.
         | 
         | I know many people who fall in the second from the top decile
         | of drinking (i.e. between 2 and 10 drinks a day). Some of the
         | people who I think are in this group are probably actually in
         | the top decile (above 10 drinks a day) and conceal the real
         | quantities they consume
         | 
         | Let me put it this way, 75% of alcohol is sold to people who
         | drink more than 10 drinks per day and this group comprises 10%
         | of the US (the top decile of drinking.) Given the numbers it is
         | pretty clear that a strong majority of this group is not
         | homeless.
        
         | flatiron wrote:
         | in the beginning of the pandemic i was drinking probably half a
         | bottle of wine a night which is probably ~3 glasses. the stress
         | of everything, being stuck at home with 3 young children, etc.
         | took actually a while to kick the habit. now i just have a few
         | friday night and over the weekend. but during that time i still
         | went to work and was my normal dad self, just after the kids
         | went to be drank a bit. i think you can do some moderate
         | drinking without being homeless although i do feel much
         | healthier now that i don't drink much during the week
        
           | Symbiote wrote:
           | Half a bottle (375mL) of 12% wine is 45mL of alcohol, or 4.5
           | UK "units", or 21/2 US standard drinks.                 750
           | mL / 2 * 0.12 = 45 mL = 4.5 "UK units"       45mL * 0.789g/mL
           | / 14 = 2.54 "US standard drinks"
        
         | VeninVidiaVicii wrote:
         | I'm shocked you have a wide enough circle of friends to include
         | homeless people but not, like any craft beer enthusiast.
        
           | WhisperingShiba wrote:
           | After I graduated from College in 2020, I humbled myself and
           | got a job at Ralphs so that I could make rent payments. I
           | worked at one across from a major park in Los Angeles so I
           | just happened to get to know a lot of homeless people.
           | 
           | I was in engineering school so many of my friends at the same
           | intellectual caliber were more interested in robots than
           | partying, but even the more enthusiastic drinkers would only
           | drink that much if we were partying.
        
         | xboxnolifes wrote:
         | > Am I naive for thinking that everyone knows that Alcohol is
         | not good for them?
         | 
         | Yes, extremely. Aside from the fact that I know plenty of
         | people in my extended family who drink more than 2 drinks per
         | day, the vast majority of my family clings to the "a drink a
         | day is better for you than none".
        
         | friendly_chap wrote:
         | Eastern European here, but I spent most of my adult life in the
         | UK. Almost every person I know drinks a few beers or shots a
         | day. 2-3 on a normal, uneventful day, and a about 5-8 drinks
         | when meeting up with family/friends etc, and 10-20+ drinks on a
         | night out.
         | 
         | None of them show physical symptoms yet, all highly functioning
         | people, but I suspect that is mostly due to their youth
         | (20-40).
         | 
         | I personally went teetotaler about a year ago. Drinking is
         | loads of fun and I miss it, but I appreciate a steady mood now
         | way more than the ups and downs of alcohol induced euphoria,
         | then potential anxiety etc.
        
           | watt wrote:
           | It takes about 10 years for full blown alcohol dependency to
           | develop, I feel that's the one unspoken truth about
           | alcoholism. It's a slow descent.
        
         | humanistbot wrote:
         | Yes I do. And they don't think it is a health problem at all.
         | Even working in tech in downtown SF, there would be happy hours
         | all the time and free-flowing booze. I told myself I was a
         | "social drinker" but found myself at 2-4 drinks every single
         | workday. So Monday is a python meet-up with drinks. Tuesday is
         | someone's birthday and also Taco Tuesday so we all go out for
         | tacos and drinks. Wednesday is some alumni event downtown with
         | drinks. Thursday is my non-work friends' "Thirsty Thursday"
         | drinks. Friday is the unofficial company-sponsored happy hour
         | where the managers bring out Whisky at 3-4pm.
         | 
         | All of a sudden, I was on the road to alcoholism, just by
         | trying to fit in and be a little more extroverted. And the
         | booze certainly helps someone who is anxious and introverted do
         | exactly that.
        
         | SteveNuts wrote:
         | Alcoholism/Functional alcoholism is fairly pervasive. I'd say
         | you're either naive or your circle of family and friends are
         | saints.
         | 
         | Yes, I know several people that fit that description by much
         | more than 2 drinks every single day.
        
         | QuercusMax wrote:
         | Two drinks is not as much as you think.
         | 
         | I'm 5'11", 235lbs - I could stand to lose a little weight, but
         | I've got a lot of muscle mass. I can drink a standard 12-oz 5%
         | beer with a meal and not even notice the alcohol.
         | 
         | I can do that at lunch and dinner and not be noticeably
         | intoxicated _at all_.
        
         | more_corn wrote:
         | I can think of half a dozen people who drink more than 2 a day.
         | Heavy drinking is very common in the UK and Europe, Scandinavia
         | especially in my experience. I stopped drinking a year ago
         | because I was in the habit of having 4 and conversations like
         | this convinced me I was killing myself.
        
         | taneq wrote:
         | Like, every day, or on average?
        
         | kodt wrote:
         | I know plenty of people who will regularly consume a bottle of
         | wine a night, or a 6-pack a day. It is very common.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | Plenty of people. Once you start paying attention, you see many
         | many casual alcoholics. I'm not sure why you're being downvoted
         | because it's a common misconception as others have pointed out
         | how much constitutes a drink and how much we're actually
         | drinking.
        
         | atestu wrote:
         | Yes... 1 glass of wine per meal is not crazy. Adds up to 2
         | drinks a day and that's not counting aperitif or any after-
         | dinner drinks.
        
         | pkd wrote:
         | I have known people who believe that "moderate drinking" is
         | actually beneficial to health - something that has been shown
         | to be untrue when controlling for socio-economic factors.
         | 
         | I believe people should be free to chose to drink too, but
         | alcohol is truly in the "culture", like you said. Very few
         | clearly harmful activities like that are part of any culture
         | and that is what makes it important for us to educate society
         | about this. I believe that alcohol should come with the same
         | level of warning as cigarettes do, but the society is not there
         | yet.
        
           | more_corn wrote:
           | There was a meta-study a year and a half ago. It seemed to
           | indicate that the supposed beneficial effects could be
           | explained by moderate drinkers tending to exercise more and
           | generally make sound health decisions. The study seemed to
           | indicate that the safe number of drinks is one or two PER
           | WEEK. It seems that zero is the number of safe drinks per
           | day.
        
           | kovek wrote:
           | Such a strong belief that moderate drinking is beneficial..
           | "It gets the heart running". How to explain that it's not
           | beneficial? How to show a study and have people believe in
           | said study? Which study did you refer to?
        
         | wusher wrote:
         | Yes, a few of my friends and none of them are homeless. Granted
         | the number of drinks they do consume has gone down as we've all
         | become older.
         | 
         | Separately, when I was in the army, and much younger, we all
         | consumed significantly more than 2 drinks day and were still
         | high performers at our job.
        
         | capitainenemo wrote:
         | It's pretty easy to go over two units in a day if you drink
         | casually and aren't paying attention. Checking a handy online
         | chart, 2 units of red wine is 70% of an US measuring cup -
         | 167ml. So if you thought a "cup" (as in measuring cup) of wine
         | was fine, you'd be over 2.
         | 
         | A bottle of 5% beer is defined as 1.7 units, therefore a bottle
         | of 6.5% or 7% craft beer would be well over 2 units.
        
           | throwaway9191aa wrote:
           | I was reading https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/alcohols-effects-
           | health/overview-a..., which looks a little different than
           | your chart, but the craft beer thing (imho) is dangerous (and
           | I love craft beer).
           | 
           | Most of the beers I like are 7.5%, except stouts which are
           | 10-12%. They also come in large 16oz cans. Two of these is
           | almost 4 drinks. "Craft beer enthusiast" can start to
           | approach heavy drinker very quickly.
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | 16oz = 473mL. Now that's out of the way...
             | 
             | I often socialize with a Belgian guy, and he will choose
             | similarly strong Belgian beers, but will almost always
             | split the bottle with someone else. I think that can would
             | probably be split three ways -- it is equivalent to 21/2 to
             | 3 reasonable glasses of wine.
             | 
             |  _Sometimes_ that means drinking less, but it might also
             | mean each person tries a wider selection of beers.
             | 
             | (A deleted comment asked for a "European" view, and I
             | should make clear this is not a unified European view.
             | That's impossible, as drinking culture varies massively
             | between countries, by drink, culture, law and tax.)
        
             | shkkmo wrote:
             | Your numbers are off. Based on your link, a 12oz 5% beer is
             | one drink so a 16oz 7.5% is 2 drinks (1.5 * 4/3) and thus
             | two of those is exactly 4 drinks.
        
             | capitainenemo wrote:
             | https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/alcohol-support/calculating-
             | alc...
             | 
             | Here was the reference I used. Small glass of
             | red/white/rose wine (125ml, ABV 12%) 1.5 units Bottle of
             | lager/beer/cider (330ml, ABV 5%) 1.7 units
        
               | capitainenemo wrote:
               | Oh, and wow. 16oz = 473ml (had to look that up)
               | 
               | 473ml*0.12 = 57ml of alcohol (!) - so almost 6 10ml units
               | in a single can??? so two of those 12% stouts would be
               | 11.4 units! Ouch... Yeah. Maybe switch to one of them as
               | a special treat once in a while. :)
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | A measuring cup of wine is obviously more than a standard
           | drink.
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | In England, pubs usually sell "small", "medium" or "large"
             | glasses of wine, which are 125mL, 150mL and 250mL. ([1] for
             | good evidence for this, that you can buy measures for it.
             | There's also a law [2].)
             | 
             | But the comparisons in this discussion are all confused, as
             | the first person wrote "US measuring cup" but used UK
             | alcohol "units" (which are 10mL = 6g), but the US "standard
             | drink" contains 11g = 18mL alcohol.
             | 
             | UK units are nicer to calculate, as an example 150mL glass
             | of 13% wine contains 150 x 13 / 1000 - 1.95 "units" alcohol
             | (19.5mL).
             | 
             | But the US standard drink is probably nearer to what people
             | actually consider one drink. The UK site shows that typical
             | drinks are nearer 2-3 units [3].
             | 
             | [1] https://www.wineware.co.uk/professional-stainless-
             | steel-thim...
             | 
             | [2] https://www.gov.uk/weights-measures-and-packaging-the-
             | law/sp...
             | 
             | [3] https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/alcohol-
             | support/calculating-alc...
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | capitainenemo wrote:
               | Yeah, sorry, I was trying to use the "measuring cup" for
               | familiar reference purposes. The 10 ml of alcohol measure
               | in the UK (with 1-2 units being the "safe" range)
               | definitely seems a lot clearer and easier to approximate
               | if your drink has an ABV % to me than the "standard drink
               | which is all over the place:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_drink
               | 
               | "For example, in the United States, a standard drink
               | contains about 14 grams of alcohol." "Different countries
               | define standard drinks differently. For example, in
               | Australia, a standard drink contains 10 grams of
               | alcohol,[4] but in Japan, one "unit" contains
               | approximately 20 grams."
        
               | capitainenemo wrote:
               | But, ok, yeah, I'm sorry. I'd perked up and replied to
               | parent because the "2 standard unit 20ml limit" as "safe"
               | seems to show up in a bunch of studies, and interpreted
               | "2 drinks" as that. But if he meant US standard drink
               | that would be a 1.7*2 units (or 2 5% beer bottles), which
               | is a bit harder to hit (but also firmly in unhealthy
               | territory). That said, as another person noted, you can
               | blow through that with a high ABV craft beer really
               | easily (or an overly full glass of wine).
        
             | capitainenemo wrote:
             | It's a very large glass of wine, yes. That said, I've been
             | in restaurants with large wine glasses that generously fill
             | them.
             | 
             | I guess if you're paying by the bottle who cares. Ensures
             | more consumption?
             | 
             | And, was more noting how people could deceive themselves. I
             | just fetched one of the large wine glasses from the
             | kitchen. Filled but well below the rim (maybe a couple of
             | cm below) it was 2 cups of water (so 6 units!) - I emptied
             | out the water and filled it with 1 cup of water (so well
             | over the 2 units) the glass was less than half full.
             | Visually looked about a third of the way up the glass due
             | to the curve.
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | " _Funding research into it seems like a waste of money..._ "
         | 
         | If, as you say, you cannot (and should not) ban alcohol, then
         | finding out how bad it is, and in what ways, is somewhat
         | important.
        
         | dynm wrote:
         | > Am I naive for thinking that everyone knows that Alcohol is
         | not good for them?
         | 
         | I think people definitely understand that heavy drinking (e.g.
         | more than 2 drinks per day) is bad for you. The question is
         | really about the impact of moderate drinking (1-2 drinks) where
         | the science is unsettled, and people have differing opinions.
         | Answering this was the goal if this particular study.
        
           | Maursault wrote:
           | > moderate drinking (1-2 drinks)
           | 
           | I really feel like _moderate drinking_ is a poor standard
           | invented by the industry to prevent loss of sales due to
           | science, and ultimately an oxymoron not unlike _safe
           | cigarette_ , _clean coal_.
           | 
           | Though alcohol is out of the drinker's system within 24
           | hours, what that drink does to their system takes a month to
           | play out. Yet someone who has had strictly 1-2 drinks a day
           | for decades is somehow a _moderate_ drinker? If a drinker
           | hasn 't gone a single month without a drink since their
           | junior year of high school, I believe the more accurate label
           | is _alcoholic_.
        
         | handrous wrote:
         | Quite a few people average one or two normal-person-defined
         | "drinks" of alcohol per day. However, one normal-person drink
         | of alcohol is _very probably_ two or more scientists
         | '/regulators' "drinks", because those are--for reasons I can't
         | fathom unless the intent is to mislead people to believe their
         | drinking is healthier than it is--so tiny that very few people
         | would consider them one entire serving.
        
         | brainzap wrote:
         | People don't know that alcohol is one of the strongest poisons
         | we use. Kills about 260 people per day in the US. Please fight
         | for the health of your friends.
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | Dihydrogen monoxide is way worse...
           | 
           | Joking aside, the dose makes the poison. On a society level,
           | alcohol is a problem, but on a personal level, it is still
           | unclear how much of an effect moderate drinking has, and in
           | which direction it goes, that's the topic of the article.
           | 
           | If you want a strong poison most of us use, take
           | acetaminophen. More than 12g and it can kill you by liver
           | failure. It is the leading cause of acute poisoning, and yet,
           | it is very safe at normal doses (1gx3/day).
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | brightball wrote:
         | I've always wondered about this too. Seems like it would be
         | cost prohibitive if nothing else.
         | 
         | During one stretch of my life where I was really stressed out I
         | was having 2-3 glasses of wine a night for about 3 straight
         | months. Aside from that, I can't imagine having more than a
         | glass or two of something every week or so.
        
           | SteveNuts wrote:
           | Alcoholics tend to not buy super expensive drinks. It's
           | mostly low-end cheap vodka purchased in 1.75 liter bottles in
           | my experience.
        
           | Johnny555 wrote:
           | A bottle of wine contains about 6 servings, so if you buy $6
           | wine, that's around a dollar a serving, $60/month is not cost
           | prohibitive for many people.
           | 
           | My local beverage store has lots of wine choices < $5, many
           | have pretty good reviews (4+ stars out of 5)
           | 
           | Though if you're looking for the best bang for the buck, they
           | have a 1.75l vodka for $8.99 - at 40 servings per bottle,
           | that's about 50 cents a day for 2 servings a day.
        
           | lkbm wrote:
           | You mean for cost-prohibitive homeless people? For people
           | with decent incomes, 3-5 drinks a day is easily affordable.
           | Beer is < $1.00/drink[0] and Trader Joe's sells bottles of
           | wine for $2.00[1].
           | 
           | A single coffee costs $4 before tip most places I've visited
           | in Austin.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/how-much-a-case-of-beer-
           | cost...
           | 
           | [1] https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/01/21/two-buck-chuck-
           | return...
        
         | whoknowswhat11 wrote:
         | I'm a light drinker (a beer a month range, and months without).
         | 
         | That said, I'm interested in the moderate drinking results.
         | 
         | Some alcohol intake is perhaps self medication for other issues
         | - ie, stress etc. Perhaps there is a small positive there -
         | though a larger positive would be to try and solve root causes?
         | 
         | Not - HN has gotten a bit downvote heavy these days - don't
         | take it too seriously.
        
       | anarticle wrote:
       | In the mid 2000s NIH was flat funded, and lots of alcohol
       | research went out the window. I worked at a place that did
       | alcohol research at large (mostly mitochondria/liver systems
       | biology stuff). Mostly the idea from funders was that alcoholism
       | is not a disease, and funding should be moved to more pressing
       | things like cancer/diabetes. I would say half the surviving labs
       | moved on to metabolic issues in disease, and the other half did
       | translational medicine based on their research. This was a huge
       | blow, caused a few retirements and closing of several labs. I had
       | to lay off a couple of my friends (technicians).
       | 
       | It is surprising the alcohol industry is going to such huge
       | lengths, and I can't remember ever hearing of such things. It
       | would be a huge blow to your credibility at the time I was in
       | science.
        
         | frandroid wrote:
         | Duplicate
        
           | anarticle wrote:
           | Ah, sorry! Janky internet due to today's bad internet
           | weather.
        
       | anarticle wrote:
       | In the mid 2000s NIH was flat funded, and lots of alcohol
       | research went out the window. I worked at a place that did
       | alcohol research at large (mostly mitochondria/liver systems
       | biology stuff). Mostly the idea from funders was that alcoholism
       | is not a disease, and funding should be moved to more pressing
       | things like cancer/diabetes. I would say half the surviving labs
       | moved on to metabolic issues in disease, and the other half did
       | translational medicine based on their research. This was a huge
       | blow, caused a few retirements and closing of several labs. I had
       | to lay off a couple of my friends (technicians).
       | 
       | It is surprising the alcohol industry is going to such huge
       | lengths, and I can't remember ever hearing of such things. It
       | would be a huge blow to your credibility at the time I was in
       | science.
       | 
       | I do enjoy the author trying to look at both sides at the end.
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | I'd be interested to see the why/how behind the TB correlation.
       | Like is it just secondary?
        
         | ruined wrote:
         | alcohol suppresses the immune system, making infection more
         | likely. TB is also correlated with homelessness, poverty,
         | incarceration, and addiction to other drugs, which all have
         | obvious relations to heavy drinking, and TB treatments are
         | generally hard on the liver, making prognosis worse and
         | progress from exposure to disease more likely for heavy
         | drinkers.
        
           | giantg2 wrote:
           | "TB is also correlated with homelessness, poverty,
           | incarceration..."
           | 
           | This was along the lines of what I was thinking. I just found
           | it odd that the others seemed to be direct and this one is a
           | second order (or higher) impact.
        
       | peter_retief wrote:
       | Any alchohol is bad for you, dont believe the one drink a day is
       | healthy. Just don't drink and your chances of living a healthy
       | long life are good.
        
         | Koshkin wrote:
         | "... but liquor is quicker!"
        
         | misiti3780 wrote:
         | sounds fun!
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | There are lots of ways to have find. If you need alcohol to
           | have fun, it shows how little you know about having fun. Get
           | a bike, or a wood chisel, or a chess board (snip a few
           | million other ways to have fun)
        
             | misiti3780 wrote:
             | I'm going out on a limb and gonna say your probably the odd
             | person out if you think a chessboard is more fun than a
             | dry, dirty gin martini.
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | Anything can be responsible or dangerous. Woodworking can
             | be bad. I had relatives who would go down to the garage or
             | basement and aggressively push wood through tablesaws to
             | vent off steam. They didn't have all their fingers.
        
       | shadowtree wrote:
       | All those physical health effects ignore the other aspect, which
       | is mental health.
       | 
       | Alcohol is about self-medication, at the core of human
       | civilization for a long, long time. China, India, Egypt so many
       | early examples (https://www.cato.org/commentary/alcohol-caffeine-
       | created-civ...).
       | 
       | How many people would be under more stress, have less
       | relationships without alcohol? It absolutely works as social
       | grease, loosens up nerves and is a very nice way of calming down.
       | 
       | I know so much in modern culture is about this weird asceticism,
       | removing _anything_ tasteful, fun, stupid and optimize for
       | longevity - but what 's the point to live in total boredom?
       | 
       | I like alcohol, it connects across millenia.
        
       | beebmam wrote:
       | Superbly written article, covering so much of the nuance involved
       | in medical science. Easily one of the best links I've ever come
       | across on Hacker News.
        
       | danepowell wrote:
       | I don't disagree with the article at all, I think it's
       | conclusions are probably largely right.
       | 
       | But it's hard to take seriously when the very first figure has a
       | logarithmic y-axis without any callout in the discussion,
       | exaggerating the appearance of the negative effects.
        
       | whiterock wrote:
       | The reason that moderate drinkers (i.e. 1-2 doses/day) appear to
       | enjoy less risk of disease than the abstainers, is that the group
       | of the abstainers includes people that used to drink but stopped
       | to (e.g. they were alcholics and sobered up or they got sick and
       | had to stop because of it) which still have hugely elevated risk
       | profiles. When you account for that, the dip vanishes.
       | 
       | [1] https://youtu.be/l3ilpQ-_IME
        
         | rybosworld wrote:
         | This is the right explanation. We just need a formal study to
         | assert the obvious here.
         | 
         | It boils down to: Self control is strongly correlated with good
         | health
        
         | taeric wrote:
         | I confess I've harbored the idea that any benefits were simply
         | benefits of not drinking soda. Another giant industry protected
         | item.
        
         | nostromo wrote:
         | We now know that isn't true, especially not for heart disease.
         | This study, as one example, separated out "never drinkers" from
         | "former drinkers" to address this bias and found drinking to
         | still be beneficial.
         | 
         | https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s1291...
         | 
         | I can't help but feel bias against drinking has religious
         | roots. This has been studied to death, and generally moderate
         | drinking is shown to be beneficial, or at very least not
         | harmful. But some folks are so opposed to that result they keep
         | moving the goal posts.
        
           | rrrrrrrrrrrryan wrote:
           | On the individual level the science is still murky, but we do
           | know that people from _cultures_ that have a glass of wine in
           | the evening tend to be healthier and live longer that those
           | who don 't. That said, I don't necessarily think the magic is
           | in the antioxidants in wine, nor do I think it has something
           | to do with the cardiovascular effects of having alcohol in
           | the bloodstream.
           | 
           | My complete layperson theory is that no amount of alcohol is
           | "healthy" per-se: its negative effects are well known and
           | documented, and almost assuredly outweigh the few dubious
           | positive effects. Instead, the benefits of drinking small
           | amounts of alcohol might be entirely tied to stress
           | management. Stress kills. It absolutely ages people and leads
           | to early death.
           | 
           | Having a wind-down ritual in the evening is probably the
           | important bit. A glass of wine with dinner is a firm
           | punctuation mark in a person's day. It signals that work is
           | now over, and what's been left undone can be resumed
           | tomorrow.
        
             | tcgv wrote:
             | That's exactly how I appreciate a beer after work every
             | couple of days. A personal ritual to relax, taste a
             | different - if possible craft - beer, and unplug from work.
             | One small bottle (35 cl) is enough to make me happy ;)
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | >> This study, as one example, separated out "never drinkers"
           | from "former drinkers" to address this bias and found
           | drinking to still be beneficial.
           | 
           | Careful. That result is not so clear-cut:
           | 
           | >> In the few studies that excluded former drinkers from the
           | non-drinking reference group, reductions in risk among light-
           | to-moderate drinkers were attenuated. [Section
           | Abstract/Results]
           | 
           | >> Pooled analysis of estimates relative to non-current
           | drinkers showed a reduced mortality risk for an alcohol
           | intake up to approximately 75 g/day. However, when studies
           | with former drinkers in the reference group were excluded,
           | the association was considerably weakened (see Additional
           | file 1: Figure S9). In addition, among those studies using
           | post-event alcohol measures, the result did not change
           | substantively; a similar trend was seen in studies with
           | multiple measures but failed to reach statistical
           | significance, probably because of the low number of curves
           | (n=2) in this subgroup (see Additional file 1: Figure S10).
           | [Section _Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality among
           | CVD patients_ ]
           | 
           | Btw, "post-event" means that participants reported their
           | results after they had their major cardiovascular event:
           | 
           | >> In addition, most of the included studies asked patients
           | to report their average consumption since the occurrence of
           | their primary events (post-event alcohol assessment), whereas
           | three studies used alcohol intake in the year prior to
           | primary events (pre-event), assuming drinking habits remained
           | stable over time, even following events [14, 44, 45].
           | [Section _Data extraction and quality assessment_ ].
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | beebmam wrote:
           | Why is everyone so confident with their conclusions without
           | RCTs? This article points out how deeply complicated ethanol
           | consumption is with our biochemical systems. Without RCTs we
           | really can't measure the overall effect of ethanol without
           | quantifying the effects of ethanol on each of those systems.
           | 
           | Can't we just reserve judgement here, and use some humbleness
           | in the face of our ignorance to drive for a real RCT funded
           | by the public?
           | 
           | Can we try to avoid the trap of becoming confidence-men?
        
             | nostromo wrote:
             | This is an impossible ask and exactly what I mean about
             | moving the goalposts.
             | 
             | For example: there are zero RCTs that prove to us
             | cigarettes cause cancer. But we're still comfortable in
             | saying cigarettes cause cancer.
             | 
             | It's entirely ridiculous to suggest we do a RCT and ask
             | someone to smoke for 30 years to remove all doubt that
             | cigarettes cause cancer. And who would pay for it? So all
             | we have are mountains of data showing that cigarettes
             | shorten lifespan.
             | 
             | The same is true here, but the opposite result. Doing a RCT
             | on alcohol for decades will never happen. All we have are
             | mountains of data showing either no harm or a small benefit
             | on lifespan. So that should be our null hypothesis: that
             | moderate drinking is either harmless or slightly
             | beneficial.
        
               | bena wrote:
               | This is a fun one because it's a good example of how to
               | bend the truth with the truth.
               | 
               | About 80 to 90 percent of people who have lung cancer
               | were smokers.
               | 
               | Only about 10 to 15 percent of smokers will develop lung
               | cancer.
               | 
               | So it's not a guarantee. It increases the risk.
               | 
               | Just like alcohol (https://www.cancer.gov/about-
               | cancer/causes-prevention/risk/a...)
               | 
               | The problem with doing RCT with alcohol and with smoking
               | is that we're talking about lifestyle studies. You can't
               | really do a study with the goal being "see if we can give
               | this dude cancer during his lifetime".
               | 
               | And let's also remember that the study that people who
               | drink moderately had longer lifespans just really notes
               | correlation. It does not prove a causation.
               | 
               | Drinking _is_ ubiquitous. Most people drink. Drinking is
               | also a luxury. So if you 're poor, you either drink a lot
               | or very little. Because you either have a problem or
               | you're too broke to afford it.
               | (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185179/)
               | 
               | Guess which income bracket engages in moderate drinking
               | the most? That's right, the income bracket that also
               | allows you to afford better health outcomes overall. So
               | while it may be true that moderate drinking correlates
               | with longer lifespans, it's a knock-on effect to the fact
               | that being poor sucks.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | The issue is, the difficulty of doing an randomized study
               | doesn't nullify the benefits of randomization (a big one
               | being eliminating confounding variables, for which there
               | can be a lot for who decides to take up an addiction and
               | why).
               | 
               | The control part would be particularly difficult (unless
               | maybe you gave everyone a real or sham nicotine patch?
               | But then you can't exclude some other benefit from
               | straight nicotine itself).
               | 
               | One could control for all the confounders they want, but
               | you still risk missing some that are unknown or
               | undervalued.
        
               | beebmam wrote:
               | So your argument here is that it is ridiculous to suggest
               | that an RCT is possible in this circumstance, so we
               | should therefore accept observational studies which
               | derive correlations as truth.
               | 
               | Not only does that conclusion not follow from your
               | premise (a logical fallacy), but it's an absurd
               | suggestion as a process for deriving truth. Observational
               | studies, at best, offer an insight into possible
               | hypotheses, and should by no means be considered
               | persuasive unless all interacting systems have been
               | controlled for. In the case of ethanol, there are an
               | enormous amount of interacting systems that need to be
               | controlled for.
               | 
               | Your premise is also strictly false, as it's clear that
               | not only is an RCT for ethanol consumption possible, but
               | it was planned and partially in progress before it was
               | terminated.
               | 
               | It's truly incredible to see the kind of language that
               | you use here, how confident you are about your fallacious
               | argument. I kindly request that you turn down your
               | confident language. Science is a long and careful process
               | of pushing back the fog of ignorance, and if you are
               | serious about the search for truth you shouldn't use such
               | confident language.
        
             | abra0 wrote:
             | Because only people with a high enough conviction of
             | benefits of moderate drinking are commenting here and
             | arguing for. However I have no idea how they do become so
             | strongly convinced in that, given the low quality of the
             | data that exists, the general reproducibility crisis in
             | bio-sciences, precedent of complete compromise of a large
             | study, things like
             | https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/12/beware-the-man-of-
             | one-..., the argument that if moderate amounts of ethanol
             | were beneficial we would have just evolved to synthesize
             | it, etc.
             | 
             | I think the most likely outcome is boring: moderate amounts
             | of alcohol are moderately harmful, but not harmful enough
             | to be immensely obvious and not harmful enough to outweigh
             | the non-biological benefits some people extract from it.
        
           | prof-dr-ir wrote:
           | Of course we 'know' nothing for sure - which is a truism that
           | applies both to the original comment and to yours... but my
           | point is that you should rarely be convinced by a single
           | study.
           | 
           | That said, I have no specific criticism on the paper you
           | refer to. It might be that the lower risk of heart disease is
           | outweighed by an elevated risk for e.g. cancer? In that way
           | both results can be true.
        
           | dillondoyle wrote:
           | Is there any data that points to causation?
           | 
           | Is there any reason to believe the chemicals in alcoholic
           | drinks would boost your health?
           | 
           | My intuition is it's behavioral or emotional in that maybe
           | drinking a glass of wine a day is relaxing, maybe more likely
           | to be drinking with friends?
        
             | nostromo wrote:
             | I've heard a number of theories, here are a few:
             | 
             | Alcohol thins the blood, much like aspirin, which at small
             | doses decreases all cause mortality.
             | 
             | Some types of alcohol, especially wine, are rich with
             | antioxidants and flavonoids.
             | 
             | Alcohol may decrease stress and anxiety.
             | 
             | Alcohol is often consumed with friends and family, and we
             | know socialization is correlated with better health.
        
           | stefan_ wrote:
           | This meta study you link literally cites 6 papers authored by
           | our main villain Mukamal.
           | 
           | Is this "no one reads the article anymore" again?
        
           | Lewton wrote:
           | Do you really think the bias against drinking (that might or
           | might not have religious roots) is stronger than the massive
           | bias that comes from the vast majority of people enjoying
           | alcohol a lot?
        
           | dionidium wrote:
           | > _I can 't help but feel bias against drinking has religious
           | roots._
           | 
           | I don't think it's necessary to propose novel explanations
           | for opposition to drinking. Alcohol has enormous negative
           | effects on society and individuals. Nobody who has ever lived
           | with an alcoholic is even remotely confused about this, but
           | even those of us who have been lucky in that respect can
           | easily observe large societal detriment. A staggering
           | percentage of all violent crimes are committed by drunk
           | people, most of us know someone who died in a drunk-driving
           | related incident, and we've all been around drunk people who
           | we found to be incredibly annoying (and often actually
           | violent).
           | 
           | Opposition to drinking doesn't require additional
           | explanation.
        
             | switchbak wrote:
             | The majority of drinking is done in a pro-social manner,
             | and you're missing a large part of the picture when you say
             | "Alcohol has enormous negative effects on society and
             | individuals" as if it's a blanket negative impact. I agree
             | that it does have a substantial negative component of
             | course.
             | 
             | There was a (ineffective and violent) prohibition on
             | drinking a century ago. Some religions also have strong
             | views against drinking. To ignore these societal influences
             | on western culture and call it a novel explanation is a bit
             | of a stretch.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | dionidium wrote:
               | This is a bit of a non sequitur. The benefits of drinking
               | are obvious! And, yes, religions and political parties
               | have opposed alcohol...because the harmful effects are
               | equally obvious. The causal arrow runs that direction.
               | There was indeed a prohibition on drinking a century ago,
               | spearheaded mostly by women who were tired of their
               | husbands beating them when drunk.
               | 
               | Prohibition is widely regarded today as an obviously
               | ridiculous blunder, but that's mostly revisionist and
               | ahistorical.
               | 
               | German Lopez at Vox did a couple good pieces on what
               | people get wrong about it:
               | 
               | * https://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9566935/prohibition-
               | myths-mis...
               | 
               | * https://www.vox.com/the-
               | highlight/2019/6/5/18518005/prohibit...
               | 
               | There's also a bit of an asymmetry that makes weighing
               | the pros and cons difficult. If 40 people enjoy a night
               | at the bar, but one one of them goes home and beats their
               | wife and another kills a family in a drunk-driving
               | accident on the way home, do we just say, "well, 38 of
               | the 40 peacefully enjoyed their evening, so it's mostly
               | good." That looks like a horrific outcome, to me.
        
               | wahern wrote:
               | A critical fact that destroys modern narratives about the
               | supposedly naive rationales behind Prohibition is that
               | the 18th Amendment was only supposed to apply to what we
               | now call hard liquor, not to beer and wine. Indeed, much
               | of the country already had similar or identical
               | legislation yet beer and wine was perfectly legal in most
               | (all?) of those localities. The Federal prohibition was
               | simply for national consistency with a public policy that
               | was well tested.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, an overly pedantic Supreme Court
               | interpreted "intoxicating liquors" very broadly,
               | resulting in a national ban that far exceeded the state
               | and local legislation with which most people were
               | accustomed and comfortable. It was the narrower
               | definition only encompassing distilled liquor that the
               | public knowingly gave their consent.
        
               | allturtles wrote:
               | This isn't quite accurate either. It was the Volstead Act
               | - an act of Congress - that defined the breadth of the
               | ban (i.e. what constitutes intoxicating liquors). The
               | Supreme Court did uphold the legality of the Volstead
               | Act.
        
           | oehtXRwMkIs wrote:
           | Beneficial implies casualty, which is clearly not established
           | in the association study you linked.
        
           | tpoacher wrote:
           | Not sure how you've reached the "religious" conclusion. With
           | the glaring exception of Islam, alcohol plays a central role
           | in most religions.
           | 
           | Obviously drunkenness is another issue altogether, but that's
           | not what such studies examine in the first place, so that's a
           | different discussion.
           | 
           | As for the benefits of wine in moderate drinkers, I remember
           | reading a study which compared consumption of wine vs equal
           | amounts of other types of alcohol, and concluded that the
           | antioxidants and tannins in wine were the main carriers of
           | that benefit, and if anything alcohol still had negative
           | effects but simply the benefit from the other substances in
           | wine overrode the harm caused by the moderate amounts of
           | alcohol in wine.
           | 
           | Obviously since I don't remember the study to cite it, this
           | makes it an anecdotal claim here, but ...
        
             | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
             | In the US the temperance movement that led to prohibition
             | was motivated in no small part by evangelical Christianity.
        
               | dionidium wrote:
               | And where did evangelicals get the idea to ban alcohol?
               | 
               | They didn't read in the Bible that alcohol was bad. They
               | looked around at society and blamed a lot of its ills on
               | problematic alcohol use.
               | 
               | Some background here:
               | https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/article/9-things-you-
               | shou...
               | 
               | Everybody gets this causal arrow strangely backwards.
               | Alcohol causes people to _sin_ ; that's why Christians
               | opposed its use. It's the _negative effects_ of alcohol
               | that led people to oppose its use, not  "religion" per se
               | (or even in any kind of explicit scriptural or liturgical
               | sense).
        
               | nitrogen wrote:
               | Given that "sin" is a purely religious concept, and that
               | one's culture around alcohol has a pretty big effect on
               | whether alcohol is associated with misbehavior (there are
               | lots of people and places for whom alcohol does not cause
               | "sin"), it's totally fair to say that alcohol bans were
               | at least partially religiously motivated.
        
             | dhimes wrote:
             | The New England Journal of Medicine study that came out in
             | the early 2000s (I don't have a citation for you) concluded
             | the opposite: It's the alcohol that kept the arteries
             | clear. Their study was motivated by the observation that
             | the cadavers med students work on are typically homeless or
             | strongly disadvantaged alcoholics. The bodies were often
             | disease-ravaged, but their blood vessels were in very good
             | shape.
             | 
             | I think of it as an "alcohol as a plaque solvent" model.
        
               | pvaldes wrote:
               | Another way to see it is that if you starve and don't eat
               | well and try to store as sugar in your liver (but you
               | can't because the liver has exit the room) you don't have
               | much remaining fat in any part of your body, including
               | the blood vessels.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | Hinduism/Buddhism/Sikhism has no role for alcohol as far as
             | I am aware.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | ninjinxo wrote:
           | Feels somewhat disingenuous to combine the data for men and
           | women, not sure about that discrepancy between surveys
           | either: https://i.imgur.com/BVJvRx6.png
        
         | kurthr wrote:
         | Classic survivorship bias.
        
       | jvanderbot wrote:
       | It sounds a lot like the ancient astronomers couching their
       | studies in something like _bringing glory to god for his
       | masterful clockwork_ or the like. See Copernicus in On the
       | Shoulders of Giants. Really eye opening how many rhetorical back-
       | flips they did even as they introduced the sun-centered solar
       | system that they personally believed in.
       | 
       | OP seems to push the idea that we could have trusted this study,
       | even if it was funded by industry and run by a professor with
       | cushy ties to that industry.
        
         | mrpf1ster wrote:
         | Did you not read the whole article? The author explains why his
         | defense of this study and the players involved is wrong, and
         | why they are "furious about every aspect of this story"
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | I did. I had trouble editing my comment. In the end, they do
           | propose that it would have been valuable to continue with the
           | study, and others like it, provided many changes were made:
           | 
           | ```Sixth, in the final review, the NIH made no attempt at
           | cost/benefit analysis. Their final report is a fair summary
           | of the problems with the trial. But it doesn't consider the
           | information that was lost by cancellation, or the fact that
           | that there was little cost to taxpayers. (Though Collins'
           | letter to Senator Grassley reveals the NIH did pay around $4
           | million out of pocket.) Could a different principal
           | investigator be put in charge? Could the study design be
           | modified to address the concerns? Could the monitoring bodies
           | have been strengthened so people could trust the results?
           | Maybe the trial was unsalvageable, but it's telling that the
           | NIH didn't bother to make that argument.```
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | azalemeth wrote:
       | I for one wish that they'd just do the study properly. Sure, it's
       | now tainted beyond all belief, but it's such a societally
       | important question that it's rather amazing we don't have a good
       | answer to the question of how bad (or otherwise) light to
       | moderate drinking is for you. Such a huge chunk of the population
       | does it!
       | 
       | If we look at another societal thing that historically a huge
       | chunk of the population did -- smoking -- it was known that it
       | kills you, horribly, but it took taken more than sixty to eighty
       | years for the public to get that message, and now society is
       | slowly adjusting [at least in Europe] with real public benefits.
       | _If_ an effect is present with alcohol, even a small one, the
       | integrated effect would be massive and it 's a very
       | scientifically valid question to ask.
       | 
       | Alcohol is really interesting -- people under report how much
       | they drink, and how much they under report is a function both of
       | the amount of booze, and the covariates that affect life
       | expectancy like education (Prof Raymond Caroll at Texas A&M has
       | an excellent book on this -- there's a method to correct for it
       | by bootstrapping called SIMEX -- e.g. applied in [1], in which a
       | sample of about 3000 adolescents and young adults around the age
       | of 20 shows that binge drinking "may not be causally related to
       | deficiencies in working memory, response inhibition or emotion
       | recognition"). The paucity and conflicting of evidence _probably_
       | means that the effect size is small, but the error bars are huge
       | and as the article says, the covariates are many. It 's just a
       | shame that we can't have nice things because of the bent actions
       | of a few.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/add.15100?c...
        
         | zeku wrote:
         | This is completely anecdotal, but Whoop data could be used to
         | uncover what moderate drinking does to you as people are self
         | reporting their habits daily.
         | 
         | It is common knowledge in the Whoop community that any amount
         | of alcohol will impact your recovery score(a in house metric
         | combined of HRV, amount sleep gotten, amount sleep needed,
         | recent activity strain, & more) for near 72 hours.
        
           | phonypc wrote:
           | For others who were confused like me: Whoop is apparently a
           | health/fitness tracker.
        
         | adriand wrote:
         | > If we look at another societal thing that historically a huge
         | chunk of the population did -- smoking -- it was known that it
         | kills you, horribly, but it took taken more than sixty to
         | eighty years for the public to get that message, and now
         | society is slowly adjusting [at least in Europe] with real
         | public benefits. If an effect is present with alcohol, even a
         | small one, the integrated effect would be massive and it's a
         | very scientifically valid question to ask.
         | 
         | But it's not _if_ an effect is present: we do in fact know that
         | alcohol consumption causes cancer. The link is well-
         | established. What is surprising is that most people aren 't
         | aware that this link exists. IIRC the number of Americans aware
         | of the link is something like 30%. According to this
         | (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/08/only-
         | one-10-...) only 1 in 10 Britons is aware. (I assume even fewer
         | people are aware that processed meat causes cancer.)
         | 
         | I understand what you're saying, of course, given that there
         | might be some benefits that outweigh the risks when you
         | calculate overall mortality. However, speaking personally, I
         | think I would rather die of heart disease than cancer. In fact,
         | compared to death by cancer, a heart attack sounds like a
         | blessing (of course I'm aware there are other, slower and also
         | nasty ways to go that are related to heart disease -- but
         | still). The main issue being, of course, that at least a slow
         | death gives you some time to say goodbye and arrange your
         | affairs. Still: I'd rather go quick and clean.
         | 
         | It's a morbid subject, but after recently reading The Emperor
         | Of All Maladies, a masterful "biography" of cancer, this has
         | been on my mind quite a bit. I love to drink, but I'm wondering
         | if it's worth it.
        
           | bserge wrote:
           | You don't have to die of cancer. If you got it, and you're
           | sure it's terminal, there's really not much need to wait,
           | there are ways.
           | 
           | I'm _still_ an alcoholic. I may drink less than before, but
           | it 's the only drug that affects GABA receptors that I can
           | reliably get. If doctors won't help me, well, it's the only
           | thing that keeps me sane lol.
           | 
           | I used to be careful with drugs, now I try everything I can
           | get my hands on and note the results. It became sort of a
           | hobby of mine.
           | 
           | Still remember the time I was fading in and out of
           | consciousness from phenylethylamine and alcohol (wack
           | interaction, do not recommend), the absolute despair that 7+
           | grams of pure GABA puts me into, and the time I passed out
           | and pissed myself on too much Imipramine+L-DOPA+Valerian
           | extract.
           | 
           | Ah, if only I could get the good stuff that works for my
           | actual problems, but apparently prescriptions are not for
           | subhuman citizens like me.
           | 
           | If I die, I die. If I become disabled/impaired, I die. Harder
           | than it sounds, but I'm gonna test the limits.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | clusterfish wrote:
         | Most of Europe is actually rather backwards in terms of smoking
         | prevalence and culture, compared to other western countries
         | like US / Canada / Australia / NZ.
         | 
         | I don't know if it's improving but the current state is pretty
         | shocking if you're used to seeing better.
        
       | michaelt wrote:
       | _> In principle, firewalled research could be the solution.
       | Supplement companies could pay to have tests done by independent
       | researchers. Consumers would have a quality signal for what
       | products to trust, and the companies that make good stuff would
       | make more money._
       | 
       | The UK tried something like this for building materials -
       | unfortunately, it doesn't seem to work very well.
       | 
       | To achieve certain standards of fire resistance, manufacturers
       | could choose from a range of independent test houses, who would
       | conduct the relevant fire performance tests at the manufacturers'
       | expense.
       | 
       | Except it turns out, manufacturers don't want to go to difficult,
       | argumentative test labs. They choose the friendly test lab, that
       | knows how to treat its paying customers. The lab that will advise
       | them on how to pass the test, that will leave them unsupervised
       | as they add defeat devices to the test rig, and that will remove
       | problematic photos from the test report.
       | 
       | The result? Loads of our tower blocks are clad in flammable
       | insulation and ACM panels - including one where 72 people died in
       | a single fire.
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | I think the difference between the testing for materials you
         | describe, and the firewalled research OP wants is an
         | intermediate institution.
         | 
         | Here it was the NIH, it should always be an independent
         | organization. The money is committed to the institution before
         | the institution decides who gets the job.
        
       | gxqoz wrote:
       | I'm reading this interesting book on the global history of
       | prohibition that challenges a lot of traditional narratives. [1]
       | One novel thing in the air at the time was the rise of social
       | science and scientific thinking. Before the early 20th century,
       | there wasn't much hard data on how alcohol led to bad health and
       | safety outcomes. Some of this research probably went too far
       | (equating all alcohol to poison). But new awareness of the real
       | dangers (and lack of evidence for many folk remedies of alcohol
       | like warming you up) had a big impact in convincing people and
       | governments to get on the temperance bandwagon.
       | 
       | [1] Smashing the Liquor Machine: A Global History of Prohibition
       | - https://www.amazon.com/Smashing-Liquor-Machine-History-
       | Prohi.... Especially Chapter 14.
        
       | brightball wrote:
       | There's a lot of people who have been waiting on an aluminum and
       | autism study for > 15 years.
        
         | aantix wrote:
         | What's the hypothesis? Why would autistic individuals have more
         | aluminum than the typical individual?
         | 
         | What's the protocol for detox?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | I'm not an expert, so take this with some salt:
           | 
           | Autistic individuals appear to have more aluminum
           | (specifically in their brains, maybe?) than others. But this
           | is only correlation, not causation (and, so far as I know,
           | not _proven_ even as correlation).
           | 
           | If the correlation is correct, it remains to be determined
           | whether the aluminum _causes_ autism, or whether autists
           | absorb aluminum as a _consequence_ of their autism.
        
             | tick_tock_tick wrote:
             | > so take this with some salt
             | 
             | haha I actually laughed out loud that a very good line.
             | 
             | (aluminum salts being in antiperspirant is the "biggest"
             | source for odd levels people bring up)
        
             | tick_tock_tick wrote:
             | > so take this with some salt
             | 
             | haha I actually laughed out loud that was a very good line.
             | 
             | (aluminum salts being in antiperspirant is the "biggest"
             | source for odd levels people bring up)
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Glad you liked it. But, um, it was not done on purpose...
        
             | aantix wrote:
             | Interesting.. My son has been formally diagnosed with
             | Oppositional Defiant Disorder.
             | 
             | He had a hair tissue mineral analysis done last October,
             | and it showed a high level of aluminum in his system.
             | 
             | https://imgur.com/pdlywQO
        
               | 4ec0755f5522 wrote:
               | Some people say ODD doesn't exist and that it's just
               | "PDA" profile of ASD.
               | 
               | I mean technically anything can exist if it has a label
               | in the DSM, but you know what I mean.
        
           | rybosworld wrote:
           | Aluminum has been correlated with lots of diseases that
           | affect the brain and nervous system. I don't know if the
           | mechanism is understood though.
        
           | brightball wrote:
           | Correlation noticed by a lot of people. Supposedly glyphosate
           | can increase absorption of aluminum in the digestive tract.
           | 
           | At the very least, a study has been warranted but to date
           | never produced.
        
             | aantix wrote:
             | I assume that there are anecdotes of people doing toxic
             | metal detoxes and having some success with reducing
             | symptoms?
        
               | brightball wrote:
               | No idea on the detoxes. Just a lot of self reporting of
               | high aluminum levels in both mother and child.
               | 
               | Because aluminum is associated with so many neurological
               | issues and autism comes with consistent gut issues,
               | there's a thought that some type of gut issues could be
               | causing higher levels of absorption of aluminum from the
               | environment when your body would normally filter most of
               | it out.
               | 
               | The biggest issue is that it's compelling enough to
               | warrant a study.
        
       | derefr wrote:
       | There are a number of substances that act like alcohol in the
       | brain, but which are _not_ fundamentally antithetical to animal
       | cellular biochemistry the way ethanol is. Most-all GABA-A agonist
       | drugs fall into this class.
       | 
       | I've always been curious how harmful these drugs would be under a
       | profile of long-term recreational abuse, _when contrasted with
       | alcohol_. I have a sense that you 'd be far better off being
       | addicted to such drugs, than you would being an alcoholic.
       | Similar to how vaping, no matter its absolute health
       | consequences, could still be beneficial _relative to_ smoking
       | tobacco, if that would be your alternative.
       | 
       | Maybe if we could figure out how to make an aqueous GABA-A
       | agonist with a really high LD50, we could see the development of
       | a "synthahol" in our lifetimes?
        
         | danachow wrote:
         | You're hung up on GABA, but it has little to do with alcohol
         | other than being part of the physiology of physical dependence.
         | 
         | LD50 for benzos is already "really high" - that is not an
         | issue. Alcohol affects other neurotransmitter pathways other
         | than GABA. That isn't even the one responsible for the
         | psychological dependence. So a GABA-A agonist with a high LD50
         | exists in multiple (benzos), but it's not an alcohol
         | substitute. There is a reason why these medications are used
         | for acute withdrawal, but are not used for treating dependence.
         | 
         | Also, being addicted to benzos is far more debilitating than
         | the "vaping" equivalent. They're quite harmful for chronic use
         | except in very limited circumstances.
         | 
         | Maybe synthahol might be a thing - I mean you're probably
         | closer with something like ecstasy - but a GABA agonist isn't
         | it.
        
         | danachow wrote:
         | You're hung up on GABA, but it has little to do with alcohol
         | other than being part of the physiology of physical dependence.
         | 
         | LD50 for benzos is already "really high" - that is not an
         | issue. Alcohol affects other neurotransmitter pathways other
         | than GABA. That isn't even the one responsible for the
         | psychological dependence. So a GABA-A agonist with a high LD50
         | exists in multiple (benzos), but it's not an alcohol
         | substitute. There is a reason why these medications are used
         | for acute withdrawal, but are not used for treating dependence.
         | 
         | Also, being addicted to benzos is far more debilitating than
         | the "vaping" equivalent - this has been well studied since they
         | had their heyday in the 70s. They're quite harmful for chronic
         | use except in very limited circumstances.
         | 
         | Maybe synthahol might be a thing - I mean you're probably
         | closer with something like ecstasy - but a GABA agonist isn't
         | it.
        
         | skhm wrote:
         | David Nutt shares your hypothesis and is working on such a
         | substance [1].
         | 
         | I agree with you that something like chronic Diazepam abuse is
         | probably less harmful to the body than a similar alcohol habit
         | - but I'm skeptical (but hopeful) one could design an
         | effective, recreationally-useful GABA-ergic drug that didn't
         | come with the baseline shift and rebound anxiety (and in the
         | limit, seizure/death) usually associated.
         | 
         | You can already choose to abuse pills _in contrast to alcohol_
         | , and it's generally not very pretty either.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/mar/26/an-
         | innocent-...
        
         | GordonS wrote:
         | I've never tried it, but I heard a lot of folks take GHB as an
         | alternative to alcohol, and that it has the same effects, but
         | without the hangover. I also heard you have to be really
         | careful with dosing, as you only need a very small amount of
         | the stuff.
        
           | whiterock wrote:
           | Be careful with that. The hangover provides a negative
           | feedback that keeps the vast majority of (any)-alcohol
           | consumers from becoming addicted. Now leave that out and see
           | what happens.
           | 
           | Note: Alcohol hangover is not the same as the immediate
           | withdrawal symptoms of other drugs that let's you crave for
           | taking another hit shot whatever. It's caused by the myriad
           | of trash by-products in metabolizing ethanol, not for the
           | lack of alcohol. (and for certain alcohols additional also
           | tannins, aroma substances and similar - think of whiskey and
           | cheap wine)
        
             | laurent92 wrote:
             | And, I suppose, more simply, the diabetus! Pickles * beer^2
             | * burger * fries = (sugar * fat)^2 = pike of insulin over
             | several hours * abundance of bad fats that the liver is
             | supposed to absorb. I do realize not every alcohol binging
             | happens in this form, but it's the classic modern/hipster
             | form. Any such behavior, even without alcohol, would turn
             | the liver upside down.
        
         | KingMachiavelli wrote:
         | We have plenty 'safe' GABA-A agonist, the issue is alcohol's
         | greatest risk and greatest hard is dependence. The health
         | effects in non-addiction scenarios are not related to its
         | function as a GABA-A agonist but rather the specific metabolism
         | of ethanol produces toxic metabolites.
         | 
         | The withdrawal from any type of GABA antagonist/PAM type drug
         | can be lethal. The acute and long term side effects of ethanol
         | discourage abuse.
         | 
         | Also acute overdoses of the safe benzo/Z-drugs are strange &
         | alarming since you can put yourself into a 24-48 hour coma but
         | recover pretty quickly.
        
         | GordonS wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure Dr Nutt was/is trying to market a synthanol
         | product, which even had an "antidote" to get you sober again
         | quickly.
         | 
         | Realistically his chance of any nation (especially a western
         | one) legalising such a thing is _very_ slim indeed, at least in
         | the medium term. Which is a real shame, as alcohol causes huge
         | harm to society.
        
         | bduerst wrote:
         | Acid ketosis is linked to increased GABA levels in the brain,
         | so you could always work out or go on a keto diet to get
         | similar effects.
        
         | drew1492 wrote:
         | Benzodiazepines (Xanax, Valium, etc.) are basically that -
         | GABAergics with very high LD50. They're positive allosteric
         | modulators, rather than direct agonists, but the
         | pharmacological action is similar. But benzos wouldn't be a
         | good alcohol substitute - they're often described as less "fun"
         | than alcohol by people who use them recreationally, they're
         | more prone to delusions of sobriety (possibly because it's
         | missing the other non-GABA effects of alcohol that help us
         | gauge drunkenness), can be very addictive, and there's some
         | link between long term benzo use and modest elevation of cancer
         | risk, especially brain cancer.
        
           | qlm wrote:
           | I still found benzos "fun" but they definitely made me more
           | sleepy and chilled out than alcohol. The disinhibition is
           | still there which is where I suppose the "fun" comes from.
           | The memory loss was far more extreme for me than alcohol
           | though, which eventually made me stop taking them.
        
       | friendly_chap wrote:
       | I would like to give a word of warning for people who would like
       | to enjoy alcohol all their life: try to avoid kindling at all
       | cost.
       | 
       | If you, like most professionals, consume alcohol for social clout
       | and for fun, this is extremely crucial.
       | 
       | Once you develop kindling (sneaks up on you), even a few beers
       | can trigger almost life threatening withdrawals, so your option
       | is to not drink any, or drink yourself to death. There is no
       | middle way.
       | 
       | For those interested, check out the cripplingalcoholism subreddit
       | on reddit. Tons of first hand experience there. You have been
       | warned. Kindling is a pandoras box of all kind of regrets and
       | there is no way to reverse it apart from abstaining from alcohol
       | for 10+ years.
        
         | cecilpl2 wrote:
         | For those (like myself) who are unfamiliar with "kindling", it
         | appears to mean an effect where subsequent withdrawals are
         | progressively worse than the first one.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kindling_(sedative%E2%80%93hyp...
        
         | rpmisms wrote:
         | Drink occasionally, responsibly, and take breaks.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | They should put an obligatory message on every bottle of booze:
       | "drinking causes a reduction of libido".
        
         | parenthesis wrote:
         | `These spirits may make you willing, but your body will be
         | weak'.
        
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