[HN Gopher] Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early n... ___________________________________________________________________ Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year Author : fourmii Score : 201 points Date : 2021-10-06 20:00 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.drive.com.au) (TXT) w3m dump (www.drive.com.au) | tannhaeuser wrote: | Isn't that a strange thing, considering Norway is vast, has low | population density especially in the north, and has own oil | resources available? | tobinfricke wrote: | Norway has plentiful hydropower, so electric cars do make sense | there. | | They do have huge crude oil reserves, but do they have any | refining capability? | magicalhippo wrote: | > do they have any refining capability | | Only two[1], but one of them is somewhat big[2], producing 4x | the domestic consumption of gasoline. | | [1]: https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oljeraffineri#Oljeraffiner | ier_... | | [2]: https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/terminals-and- | refineri... | elygre wrote: | It seems the answer is yes. There are two refineries. | According to https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/terminals- | and-refineri..., Mongstad (the larger of the two) has | capacity: "Petrol (gasoline) production at Mongstad is 4 | times Norwegian domestic consumption" | [deleted] | dogma1138 wrote: | When a Models S costs about as much as a Mazda 3... what would | you buy? | kmonsen wrote: | That's why it's not going to be 100%. Just someone looking at a | graph and extrapolating. | Unbeliever69 wrote: | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2021/06/19/why-norway... | Syonyk wrote: | Their tax structure on vehicles is such that a loaded Tesla | costs about the same as a Civic - the taxes (that are exempt on | EVs) are quite massive on new cars. | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... | has extensive details, but they've got a set of incentives that | _exceedingly_ favor BEVs. | digikata wrote: | One way to avoid the resource curse is to use the bounty of the | resource to develop diversified dependencies/capabilities for a | future when that resource runs out or is devalued. | tuatoru wrote: | Norway is wealthy thanks to selling fossil fuels. Norwegians | feel guilty about that, but not guilty enough to stop selling | them. | | This is essentially performative environmentalism from them. | Still, it will help other countries by throwing up unforeseen | problems in all-electric ground transportation, and some | solutions. | bellyfullofbac wrote: | I don't think it's a country of virtue signallers as you | think, just people who like to get the best bang for their | buck. And gas cars as well as fuel get taxed so much, that | buying electric makes sense for them. | | Who would've thunk, economic incentives help!? Sadly in many | other places the deciding economic incentives are the ones | the politicians get from the oil and ICE car industry. | bagacrap wrote: | arguably, taxes are the government's way of making the | decision for the people, so if by "Norway" gp more | accurately meant "the government of Norway", you haven't | refuted their claims | matsemann wrote: | We (as in the Norwegian population) have voted for | politicians supporting this, though. At the election a | month ago, it was just a thousand or so votes from being | an incredible amount of green representatives. | bpodgursky wrote: | The claim is not that the individuals buying cars are | signalling, it is the public policy (incentivizing | individual EV ownership while exporting carbon emissions) | which is hypocritical. | opinion-is-bad wrote: | Norway also spends a lot of energy criticizing foreign | regimes for attempting to follow the same path as Norway; | prosperity through natural resource extraction. It's | great that Norway has gotten rich enough to turn the | corner, but not every country is so fortunate. | nso wrote: | Norway has been relatively wealthy for quite some time. | Before oil it was from fishing and shipping, amongst others. | [deleted] | shkkmo wrote: | Norway has been doing a relatively good job of investing | their oil revenue into technologies and infrastructure that | will carry their economy through the end of oil and hopefully | help reduce global warming. | | Given their relatively contribution to the total global | production and OPEC's supply management to control prices, it | is unclear if a halt in Norwegian oil sales would raise | prices significantly enough to matter. There is an argument | to be made that is is better for Norway to capture those | profit and invest them into the research we need to reduce | oil dependence and sequester CO2. | | I don't think that the electric car adoption is purely driven | by environmentalism. Norway has extremely cheap energy that | makes electric cars much more economically attractive. | dagw wrote: | _I don 't think that the electric car adoption is purely | driven by environmentalism._ | | On an individual level basically no one in Norway buys an | electric car due to environmentalism. It's 100% an economic | decision. Buying a new gasoline powered car today in Norway | simply doesn't make financial sense no matter how you look | at it. | tuatoru wrote: | s/oil/heroin/g | outside1234 wrote: | They also get the shit taxed out of them for buying a IC car, | so electric cars are actually cheaper. | robotresearcher wrote: | Which is a political decision made in a democracy, not a | law of physics. Norwegians chose to do this. (Yes, a | relatively small subset of people are actually empowered in | a democracy, but it's the least-bad system known, etc etc). | richlandlord wrote: | Not only there was no referendum that allowed Norwegians | to decide if this was their political volition, but | political volition alone is not enough to tax something. | If it were, everything would be taxed, because you can | construct any 51% against any 49% on any topic and add a | tax. | | If you want to know what Norwegians really think about | the tax, make it optional and see how many people pay for | it. | vkou wrote: | > If you want to know what Norwegians really think about | the tax, make it optional and see how many people pay for | it. | | If you want to see what Norwegians really think about | paying for things in stores, make shoplifting laws | completely optional, and replace cash registers with tip | jars, and see how that works out. | mensetmanusman wrote: | They are also rich to the tune of $200k saved in the nations | coffers for every citizen. | robotresearcher wrote: | That's an awful lot of money. The US National Debt is around | $80K per US citizen. The War in Afghanistan cost around $7K | per US citizen, based on numbers from Wikipedia. | nerdawson wrote: | The UK and Norway found oil in the North Sea around the same | time. Norway used that revenue to create the world's largest | sovereign wealth fund. The UK squandered it on tax cuts. | FourthProtocol wrote: | Scandinavia in general takes global warming more seriously than | most other countries on the planet. And so this isn't strange | at all. The whole of Europe is amping up alternatives to | petrol- and diesel-based transportation, from e-bikes, cargo | e-bikes, e-scooters to Teslas and electric Porsches (Taycan), | and anything inbetween. | shkkmo wrote: | Norway isn't really that vast. It's about the size of New | Mexico but has twice the population density. | dagw wrote: | _It 's about the size of New Mexico_ | | It is however much more spread out. Driving from the | northernmost to southern most town of New Mexico is ~700 km. | Driving from the southern most to northern most town of | Norway is over 2300 km, or about the same has from the | southernmost town of New Mexico to the Canadian border. | shkkmo wrote: | It's not about the max travelable distance in the country | but the max distance actually traveled for most trips. The | higher density (and population concentration in the south) | reduces the latter and makes maintaining a charging network | much more practical (their high adoption rate also help a | lot with that.) | | Edit: The reason why this is the important measure is | because what people care about is how often their trips | require N charging stops not the maximum number of charging | stops they might have to make. | thomasfl wrote: | There's a huge price difference between electric cars and gas | fueled cars here in Norway. Gas fueled car buyers have to pay | both 25 percent VAT and an additional tax on purchase. Buyers | don't have to pay neither of those taxes if they buy an electric | car. The singer of the group A-ha, Morten Harket, bought an | electrical car in 1989 and refused to pay road tolls and ignored | all the subsequent fines. That got a lot of attention, and Norway | ended up having very affordable electrical cars compared to gas | fueled cars. Norway is one of Tesla's main market. | mfer wrote: | How is Norway handling the increased use of the electric grid? | I ask because Elon noted the US power grid needed to double | output to handle a full is transition | paultnylund wrote: | Last I heard, they actually have so much excess power that | they're selling it to the UK. | albertop wrote: | Do you know how they are generating electricity? | hackerNoose wrote: | Lots of cheap hydro. | sdenton4 wrote: | Lots of water in them fjords: | | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1025497/distribution- | of-... | | 93 percent hydro, 4 percent wind, 2.5 percent thermal. | xyproto wrote: | Mostly hydroelectric. 98% renewable energy sources. | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Nor | way | xyproto wrote: | Yes, and the electricity trade may contribute to higher | prices for local consumers. | mbakke wrote: | Norway exports excess power most of the year. 71% over the | last three years according to this page: | | https://www.statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-kraftbransjen/tall- | og-... | fortuna86 wrote: | > Norway is one of Tesla's main market. | | This is also because they are a small, very rich country and | cannot be used as a comparison to others. | matsemann wrote: | Other stuff is free/reduced toll on roads, lots of free | charging, often cheaper parking on public spots, can use the | bus lanes in heavy traffic (probably soon going away now that | half the cars being electric would block the buses). | marvin wrote: | Would be interesting to eventually hear Elon Musk's thoughts on | Norway's role in Tesla's success. We were a very big market for | them in 2013-2018, one might suspect critical. | magicalhippo wrote: | With half the Teslas made going to Norway for quite a while, | I think indeed it was a key to their success. | | Not just the numbers, but also the geography and climate. | Make a car that can be used for a long trip any time of the | year here, and you're set for most markets. | | There's a reason why car makers come to Norway and Sweden to | test their new cars before launch. | mikewave wrote: | What was he driving in '89? | Koshkin wrote: | A converted Fiat Panda. | | https://reasonstobecheerful.world/norway-gm-electric-cars- | mo... | iddan wrote: | That is a a great way of using social impact for the | environment. Celebs should really how can they actions like | this | 52-6F-62 wrote: | Neil Young made a similar effort: | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LincVolt | tkbeili wrote: | Very interesting. In Canada, it will take years to recoup the | price difference for buying an electric car even with | government incentives. 25% VAT + Extra tax seems to work. | jszymborski wrote: | Agreed! We have subsidies for electric vehicles under a | certain price, but imo prices just get inflated to "what the | market is willing to pay" + "value of the subsidy" | dietr1ch wrote: | Isn't that intended? That extra revenue should also come | with extra pressure to deliver cost-efficient products as | new parties may want a share of that sweet subsidy. | Initially it may look like the subsidy is just throwing out | money, but if the subsidy is kept around for a while it | becomes a bounty for future competitors. | mikewave wrote: | That's mostly because of the lack of midmarket cars. | | I bought a used sub-$20k electrical car a few months ago; it | can be done. The market needs pressure to create cars in that | price range; right now EVs are mostly luxury cars. Tesla is | not the car we should be aiming for; what we need are things | in the class of the E-Golf, Kia Niro, FFE, Fiat 500E etc. | that are the size of a Corolla and cost 20k CAD or less. | | Until that's common on the market, the value proposition is | flawed and nobody is buying an electric car to save money | except for people who buy used cars that someone else has | eaten the depreciation on (like me), or people who drive a | LOT. Everyone else is basically buying these things as luxury | items, and the cost doesn't matter, especially when you can | get near-0% financing over 5+ years..... | _3u10 wrote: | Yeah, used EVs depreciate quickly. I'm comparing new Tesla | Plaids to the C8 Corvette and due to depreciation its | looking like the C8 will be much cheaper, and much more fun | to drive. The C8 will drop 30k in 5 years according to | C6/C7 data, whereas a Plaid will likely drop 70k. If I | spend less than $800 a month on fuel the C8 is cheaper. | | Currently C8s are appreciating their first year, which is | really weird. | | The Model S is really chonky at almost 5000 lbs, which is | the same as a 4Runner. | ytdytvhxgydvhh wrote: | > Currently C8s are appreciating their first year, which | is really weird. | | Why is that weird? That seems typical for new, extremely | popular cars where supply isn't meeting demand. It | happened years ago with the PT Cruiser, and when Mini | (re-)entered the US market. It's happened with Teslas | too. Right now it's happening with the C8 Corvette and | Ford Bronco, which are both really tough to find on | dealer lots. In 5 or 10 years, they'll have depreciated | like more typical used cars. The tough part is guessing | when supply will become sufficient (and values will | drop). | TaylorAlexander wrote: | Please donate to your local food bank. Many people are | hungry. You can help. Perhaps this one is local to you: | | https://www.accfb.org/ | _3u10 wrote: | Great idea thanks for the suggestion, however, I'll keep | people employed instead so they don't need the food bank. | | "I believe the best social program is a job." -- Ronald | Reagan | zipswitch wrote: | Jobs are a _cost_. | | Jobs are necessary to maintain our society and | civilization, but they are not a positive good in and of | themselves. | et2o wrote: | Young tech employees with valuable transferable skills | vs. typical food bank user (not meant as a slight!) are | different populations most likely. | filoleg wrote: | > _Yeah, used EVs depreciate quickly._ | | Yeah, not sure about that. Currently, used Model 3 LR AWD | from 2019 with around 10k-20k mileage go for just a few | grand cheaper than what I bought it for (new) in 2019[0]. | | 0. https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-2019-Tesla- | Model-3-Long... | neutronicus wrote: | You also need to make it realistic for people to own EVs | without also owning a single-family home. My wife and I | probably would have bought a PHEV, but we lived in an | apartment so ... we went Hybrid instead. | | As it is the EV subsidies are really just helping | homeowners buy luxury cars which seems a little backwards | et2o wrote: | This is a great point. I would have loved to buy an EV | (or trade in my current gas vehicle which I don't use all | that much for an EV), but the logistical annoyances of | charging it in a busy city appear to be substantial. | pmalynin wrote: | And especially now with the added burden of the "luxury" car | tax. | _3u10 wrote: | The luxury car tax doesn't really apply to new cars. If the | seller is registered with the govt as a seller of luxury | goods then it does not apply. | | https://www.canada.ca/en/department- | finance/programs/consult... | nereye wrote: | And in parts of Canada apparently you have to pay additional | taxes if you buy an EV, i.e. there are disincentives as | opposed to incentives. Sold as being an effort to balance the | lack of revenue from EVs skipping the various taxes on gas. | E.g.: https://electrek.co/2021/10/04/canadian-group- | satirizes-sask.... | tclancy wrote: | The petroleum industry should have sent that race driver with | the wrench to fix his little electric wagon. | ostenning wrote: | Meanwhile in Australia: electric cars are getting taxed more to | support the aging oil infrastructure | njovin wrote: | Similar in California and other states. The states typically | tax gasoline and since electrics don't use any they are | implementing special fees on electric vehicle purchases to | make up for lost revenue. | | One would think that the savings in pollution (not only for | the car itself, but the transport of the fuel, pollution from | refineries, etc.) would offset any lost revenue from gas | taxes. | | What makes this really nonsensical is that many states still | have electric vehicle rebates. They give you a rebate of a | few thousand dollars to reward you for buying an electric | vehicle but then charge you a few hundred dollars to punish | you for buying an electric vehicle. | no_butterscotch wrote: | Wow really? | | I have a Tesla in CA and am only familiar with the electric | vehicle credit (not sure what it is, I haven't looked into | it) and the "you get to use carpool lanes" rule for EVs. | | Otherwise, I'm not familiar with extra taxes :( | fdr wrote: | EVs still drive on roads. | sdenton4 wrote: | Roads? Where were going we don't need... Well, ok, I | guess the future didn't work out that way after all. | SomeCallMeTim wrote: | In Colorado at least it's not that high. $50 plus a small | amount (today) that goes up over time to no more than $96 | in the 2031-2032 fiscal year. | | It's CERTAINLY a lot less than you'd be paying in gas tax | if you used your car an average amount. | | Taxes aren't punishment, anyway. Especially "road use | taxes", which are, in this case, used to repair the roads | you're driving on. | | [1] https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/11486 | anonporridge wrote: | It will be interesting if there comes a point where ICE vehicles | are such a small minority of all vehicles, that supporting | infrastructure (petrol stations, traditional mechanics, oil | change services, etc) starts to collapse and disappear. | | There may still be some infrastructure for special use cases like | long haul trucking or industrial vehicles, but it might become | untenable for the average consumer to own an ICE vehicle, just | like it was painfully difficult to own an EV before charging | stations became widespread. | | When that happens, it could further accelerate the | decommissioning of old vehicles. | doublesocket wrote: | The UK's recent fuel shortages have apparently spurred on EV | sales so this seems likely. | anonporridge wrote: | This makes me wonder if the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack | indirectly led to an acceleration of EV adoption. | | All of these events make more and more people recognize the | relative weakness and fragility of an oil based civilization | compared to an electric one. | bellyfullofbac wrote: | On the topic of Norwegian oil, a fascinating story of an Iraqi | who helped them deal with being an oil-producing nation: | https://web.archive.org/web/20100123225932/http://www.ft.com... | | He was an oil expert who met a Norwegian au-pair in London, they | got together, married, had a sick kid so they decided to move to | Norway, and because he had the whole day before he could take the | train from Oslo to her hometown, he decided to visit the Ministry | of Industry to get leads on oil jobs... | jezzzabell wrote: | That was a great read, thanks. I loved that they highlighted | the role of a proper regulatory body as a key factor in the | success of the oil industry in Norway. | LatteLazy wrote: | There has been a similar big bump in the uk (to 17% not 100 but | still...). How much of this is that a lot of legacy companies | can't produce anything because they can't get chips? | noselasd wrote: | Most EVs sold are produced by legacy companies | riazrizvi wrote: | Norway produces over 93% of its electricity from hydroelectric | sources and the rest from wind and thermal ones. | | I think they have just become the first country to unlock this | tech IRL Civ. | overkill28 wrote: | There are some serious caveats here: | | > seven out of every eight cars bought and sold in Norway a used | car. The NAF's numbers show that of the 357,176 ownership | registration changes so far in 2021, electric vehicles only | accounted for 12 per cent. | | And their definition of electric cars includes hybrids (whereas I | think most people interpret it to mean fully electric). So | they're obviously doing great but the vast majority of the | vehicles in Norway are still ICE only. | lonelyasacloud wrote: | It's good that Norway may hit 100% electric EV. But with ~20% of | their economy based on oil and gas production, it's hard not to | think of it being funded largely by exporting pollution | elsewhere. | guerby wrote: | Warning probable pro tesla bias but here is a video about market | for EV in other countries than Norway: | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJpLm0uuVgA | | "When will we have 100% EV adoption ? Norway was NOT fast, | compared to what is coming." BestInTESLA | WalterBright wrote: | 20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground and | selling it for others to burn. If they were really green that | would stop. | dtech wrote: | At least they are using that money for citizens and green | energy instead of Ferrari's of the royal family | AustinDev wrote: | Ferarris don't contribute at all to global warming | relatively. The many Gulfstream's and 747's the wealthy own | are actually statistically significant in terms of impact. | ResearchCode wrote: | Neither do all but a few countries. | toomuchtodo wrote: | The House of Saud, for some time, has attempted and failed | to diversify away from oil wealth for when the time comes | they can no longer rely on it. Norway, arguably, will reach | that point soon (as they've bootstrapped electric mobility | and can now deprecate existing petroleum supply chains, | both for domestic use and for export). | | Be like Norway and use the time you have left selling a | natural resource wisely, because bans and cross border | tariffs are coming, and you'll be left with what you could | build during your transition when the revenue dries up. | Hopefully as a country, you don't end up empty handed. | | (Norway also supplies the UK with a large amount of clean | hydro power, roughly 690MW continuous, through a newly | commissioned underwater HVDC transmission line, so it's not | all dirty fossil exports) | Le_Dook wrote: | Heck, I know they're hybrids but just look formula one. The | total emissions of every car, from all sessions at every | single race in a year combined produce less emissions than | a one way flight from London to New York. Which is then | completed negated by the fact that the drivers all take | private jets around the world | dd444fgdfg wrote: | i don't think that's a good comparison. think how many | flights a single F1 race "causes". Not just the team | members, theirs cars and equipment, but the millions of | fans traveling to races around the world. | bogomipz wrote: | That seems like an odd concession given that the need to | curtail the burning of fossil fuels is literally a global | concern. | thomasfl wrote: | As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just | unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new | old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norway could have a | Kodak moment. | r00fus wrote: | Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) | that is setup specifically for this eventuality. | | Many large oil exporting countries know the good times won't | last, and are planning for it. | ars wrote: | > Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in | USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality. | | That's not much - $25K per person over 10 years, and with | an average income of $70K per person, and something like | half of their economy is energy (most if not all social | programs are funded from energy production). | | If oil were to stop tomorrow, they'd have around 10 years | before the money runs out. (Maybe a bit longer since kids | don't earn money.) And if they have to replace all the | social funding, they'd have even less time. | | Norway is relying on slow reduction in demand, and time to | transition their economy. Will they have it? It's far from | certain. I feel like Norwegians rely too much on this fund | to save themselves, rather than transitioning away from oil | now. | jalk wrote: | How large is the Oil Fund these days (after Corona spending) | 1 trillion USD or something like that - you'll be fine | magicalhippo wrote: | > How large is the Oil Fund these days | | They got a "live" counter here[1], so yeah around 1.3 | trillion USD give or take. Estimates for corona spending is | around 80 billion USD[2]. | | [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/ | | [2]: https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer- | oljefo... | bellyfullofbac wrote: | Geezus, must be nice to have that kind of rainy day fund. | Grossly over-simplifed: "Shut down the economy? Oh well, | here's 80 billion dollars to keep everyone fed and warm." | eptcyka wrote: | A country can't sustain itself on cash alone. Human | capital and infrastructure is vital. | ars wrote: | For a few years. But divide that fund by the population | and it suddenly doesn't seem as much. | | Human capital is far more valuable, but most of the | industrial knowledge of Norway is in energy production. | jonsen wrote: | If the world remains able and willing to pay it back. It's | mostly invested abroad. | takk309 wrote: | How much oil is needed to produce a single electric vehicle? | What I am getting at is we will need oil extraction for a long | time. While we can move away from burning it for heat, we still | need it for the production of most plastics. This doesn't even | begin to touch on oil's use in the extraction process of all | the other metals used in car production. | | We also need oil for road building. I don't see that changing | anytime either. After all, asphalt production produces far | fewer greenhouse gasses than cement. Concrete roads have their | place but the vast majority of road miles will be made with | asphalt for the near future. | arghwhat wrote: | Asphalt is itself very energy inefficient, and finding a | replacement is rather important. Quoting kurzgesagt, the | impact if manufacturing an electric car is equal to just two | meters of asphalt road. | takk309 wrote: | On top of that, asphalt is very easy to recycle and is | likely the most recycled material on the planet by weight. | My original point was that we will still need to extract | some oil for a long time into the future. | lm28469 wrote: | Given that all the plastics and most synthetic fabrics are | petrol derivatives I don't think it'll ever die. | | 90% of everything in your direct line of sight probably | contain petrol derivatives. From wall paint to shampoo, your | t-shirt, phone, chewing gums, toothpaste, rugs, shoes... We | just can't sustain our modern lifestyle without it | thatwasunusual wrote: | > 20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground | and selling it for others to burn. | | To be precise, it's 14%, down from 26% in 2008.[0] | | [0] https://e24.no/norsk-oekonomi/i/dOXzd1/norge-er-mindre- | oljea... | tdeck wrote: | This is a major plot point in the excellent fictional series | Occupied, which is worth a watch on Netflix. | [deleted] | belltaco wrote: | Stopping it would be useless, it'd just increase production | from oil wells of other countries. They could invest that money | into accelerating green technology. | kmonsen wrote: | That's not useless though. It would drive the price up making | it easier to scale up on renewables. | bdamm wrote: | Only if there was a large pact of countries doing so. But | even that would be dubious, since OPEC and other groups | would just increase production. Also there are many oil | resources that can be tapped with a slight increase in the | prices, so really Norway would just be handing production | over to countries like Canada, where local governments | would be only too eager to sell the more expensive product. | mensetmanusman wrote: | That is under the assumption oil revenues aren't | efficiently spent on speeding the green transition. | cecilpl2 wrote: | To a first order effect, stopping production would decrease | supply, increasing price, and therefore decreasing demand and | therefore overall oil usage, shifting some energy to | alternative sources. | | Of course second order effects might dwarf that, like the | fact that increasing prices would incentivize oil extraction | in currently unprofitable locations. That extraction may or | may not be more carbon-intensive than Norway's (though | probably more if it's currently unprofitable). | | It sounds punchy to say "Norway should stop extracting oil" | as much as it does to say "It doesn't matter whether they do | or not since someone else will", but the reality is much more | complex than either of those simplistic zeroth-order | approximations. | Retric wrote: | Infrastructure takes time to build. A short term price hike | in oil costs isn't going to change how many cars Tesla can | manufacture tomorrow. Near term you can build up | infrastructure to extract more oil from the same well | faster than you can build a new car factory. | | The only real change from such a policy is how quickly | wells will run dry, but I hope we can abandon oil long | before running out is a serious concern. | mikewave wrote: | Precisely. If oil prices get high enough, the Canadian oil | sands will begin to be a profitable operation again, and | will scale back up to take advantage. At this point, while | we're still weaning off of oil - for probably the next 50 | years - we need the lowest carbon, least cannibalistic | sources of it possible. | WalterBright wrote: | Gotta start somewhere. After all, Norway switching to all- | electric cars also won't make a significant reduction in | worldwide CO2. | | Sure, other wells will produce more. But at a higher price. | Higher prices encourage use of greener alternatives. | bellyfullofbac wrote: | What a weird forecast, this is like saying "Bitcoin will hit | $100k in 3 months." by looking at the price graph. Since people | will still be allowed to buy such cars so far, I doubt 100% will | ever be reached... | oleganza wrote: | Actually, Bitcoin is likely to hit $100K in about 3 months. | findthewords wrote: | In other words, the market is saturated? | andrenth wrote: | Does anyone have a pointer to studies on the effects of electric | vehicles in the used car market? | | I ask because the lifespan of current batteries seems to be | around 8 years (going by manufacturers' warranties), and the | battery pack amounts to approximately 30% of the price of the | car. So people buying an used electric car will likely face a | large maintenance cost after a while. | jdofaz wrote: | There are a handful of independent shops that can repair a | battery for much less than full replacement cost. I think that | will get better as EVs become more common. | andreer wrote: | I don't think it's too different from an ICE car. Based on what | I've seen in the used car market here in Norway it seems much | the same. | | Applying the same logic, The lifespan of an internal combustion | engine seems to be around 5 years (going by manufacturers | warranties), and the cost is probably not too far off from 30% | of the car there either. | | And having also owned an aging diesel powered car, I can | promise you there were definitely increasing maintenance costs | with that too! | The_Beta wrote: | Best I could find with a quick search. I think it's still too | early for a proper study. | | https://insideevs.com/news/405885/tesla-model-s-battery-afte... | | https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep... | | https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/how-long-does-a-tesla-ba... | Swenrekcah wrote: | Unless they programmed it to go bad as soon as the warranty | expires I wouldn't be so worried about it. The Tesla model S is | about 8 years old now for the earliest models and I don't think | I've heard about them going bad. | jsight wrote: | I think that would cause them to drop by ~70% over 8 years, at | least for normal to high mileage examples. I'm not sure if this | is actually any worse than what would be typical for an ICE | vehicle, though? | codazoda wrote: | I've seen a stat that most cars only last 10 years in the US. | If that's because we crash or destroy them than the problem is | almost non-existent. I own a 25 year old truck but they aren't | very common, so I assume that's just anecdotal. I'm also not | sure if that stat included trucks. I can't find it to reference | it. | ajross wrote: | That's off. A typical new EV gets ~250 miles of real world | range on a full charge and has a battery with very similar | chemistry[1] to what you have in your phone. So over a putative | 200k mile lifetime, it's going to see about 800 cycles | (2e5/250) of battery usage. | | 800 cycles is about what a typical mobile phone sees in two | years, after which most are seeing some moderate degradation | (70% of new condition is fairly typical) but are still quite | usable. And in fact a car spends much more of its time being | recharged well before reaching full discharge (where consumer | electronics runs dead a lot), so it would be expected to do | somewhat better. | | It's not really a problem, basically. | | [1] Though we're seeing an increasing number of vehicles | delivered with LiFePO4 cells. This chemistry has somewhat lower | energy density and higher internal resistance, but has the | advantage of an estimaged _hundreds of thousands_ of cycles | lifetime. Those will never wear out until long after the | mechanical parts are dust. | robotresearcher wrote: | These new cells give the possibility of being recycled and | rebuilt into a few cars in a row. Would be great for the | single most expensive component of an electric car to be used | over, maybe dropping performance/cost class as they go. | magicalhippo wrote: | Like changing a broken automatic transmission is a cheap thing. | | That happened to a friend of mine, who was quoted around 50k | NOK (~6k USD) of a car he bought used for twice that. | Fortunately for him, it turned out there was one week left of | the 5-year "new car" warranty so he didn't have to pay after | all, but that was sheer luck. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-10-06 23:00 UTC)