[HN Gopher] Predicting stock market returns from news photos ___________________________________________________________________ Predicting stock market returns from news photos Author : sizzle Score : 51 points Date : 2021-10-22 18:35 UTC (4 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.rmit.edu.au) (TXT) w3m dump (www.rmit.edu.au) | [deleted] | yellow_lead wrote: | I didn't read the whole study and this is a pre-proof but I'm not | very optimistic about claims like this. There are often many data | biases that are hard to root out. | | https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.002 | m3kw9 wrote: | Is probably another case of "you think you are good, but it was | just luck" | black_13 wrote: | Boy everyone forgets 2001 and 2008 and the devastation | paulpauper wrote: | I dunno if this is related to the article because its pay-walled, | but elon tweeting a picture of dogs does seem to make doge-themed | coins go up | java-man wrote: | $39.95 (for academic use). | | Excellent! I am sure the research was paid for by the Australian | taxpayers, but it's Elsevier who makes money from publication. | personjerry wrote: | This is silly because the photo selections are predicated on the | news articles. | | Which implies the articles for that day are already published. | | Which means this classifier basically "reads the market news | correctly based on the pictures within". | Animats wrote: | From the article: _" It works by analysing the 'top lists' of | editorial pictures on stock image website Getty. Using machine | learning, the algorithm produces a daily score based on the types | of photos used in global news reports. Lead author Dr Angel Zhong | said investors could use this information to better predict daily | stock market returns, based on the mood of investors worldwide."_ | | Not, "Angel Zhong Fund announces 142% gain for year." | quickthrowman wrote: | Exactly. If you could accurately predict returns, you wouldn't | publish, you'd profit. Profiting from the strategy would be a | much better form of proof than a paper. | | Although.. maybe this is the secret sauce that powers Jim | Simons' Medallion Fund | betterunix2 wrote: | Or it might just be that this is already known to the | algorithmic traders, who already use headlines (text) as an | input to their systems. | [deleted] | capableweb wrote: | > Exactly. If you could accurately predict returns, you | wouldn't publish, you'd profit | | While it's sometimes fun to assume things, it gets hard when | you talk about people. In this case, not everyone is driven | by profits and money, so it's most likely incorrect to assume | "They didn't use this way of gaining profit themselves, so | it's probably not profitable". | agumonkey wrote: | Also nothing says he didn't try and profit enough (to fund | more research) from his idea already. | ggm wrote: | It probably had implicit status as post hoc reasoning since | the images include post closure photos for at least some | markets since some news images come after closure. They'd | have to work awfully hard to demonstrate better than random | with only prior data. | | A confounding problem is that news sources change stories and | use a/b testing to pick story winners. | | This could even be a meta analysis of emerging sentiment on | delay, which means you'd do better timewise on the origin | sentiment than the second differential. Except you can't | access the same pool of opinion so at best, it's a clever | trick to access emerging sentiment through reactive reasoning | on news sites. Why is that better as a driving function to | invest across the market than other sources? | jaredwiener wrote: | Also -- wouldn't it be a safe assumption that photo editors are | choosing the pictures that match the tone of the news they are | reporting on? This seems like a roundabout way of saying that | financial news seems to mostly accurately report the state of | financial markets.... | nanis wrote: | Ah, that pesky reverse causation thing ... | | In fact, one might get even better results if one trains the | model on the daily market charts newspapers publish such as | this: https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/stock-market-newspaper- | backg... | | Oh, that's harder to get than the top-10 list at Getty, I | see. Yeah, convenience sampling is king. | | Is one of the authors "Not Sure!" by any chance? | secondaryacct wrote: | The first rule of investing though is once everyone knows the | martingale, nobody can profit off of it anymore. | | So now this won't work. | qeternity wrote: | That's OP's point: if this were truly predictive then you | would just go raise a few billion dollars and quietly | implement this strategy...you wouldn't write a paper about | it. | | The fact that we're reading about a paper, and not a headline | about a wildly successful systematic fund, suggests this | isn't all that valuable. | not-elite wrote: | You're probably correct in this case, but not in general. | The authors of [1] could have quietly run a money printer | but elected to seek reforms instead. | | [1] https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/1029s | echft... | danielmarkbruce wrote: | i don't think that's right. People were already using the | information quickly weren't they? | cjbenedikt wrote: | Download available here: | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3841844 ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2021-10-22 23:00 UTC)