[HN Gopher] A submarine's weakness: its software?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       A submarine's weakness: its software?
        
       Author : jwithington
       Score  : 113 points
       Date   : 2021-12-07 16:07 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (fixvms.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (fixvms.com)
        
       | pikzel wrote:
       | This webpage could be a few lines html and css, but uses 172 node
       | modules. 4240 files. The repo is 17.6 MB. We Deserve Much Better.
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | how do you see this?? i'm a newbie to web development and
         | selected https://github.com/yuanqing/single-page-markdown-
         | website for something clean and minimal in design.
         | 
         | but those are crazy stats! what would you suggest for newbies
         | like me?
        
           | joconde wrote:
           | Jekyll is quite popular and generates very light webpages. I
           | find the result pleasant to use. https://jekyllrb.com
        
       | OldHand2018 wrote:
       | The author seems to know about submarines, so let's give him (?)
       | the benefit of the doubt... But without knowing the cause of the
       | accident, the author is calling for a specific change. This seems
       | problematic. Perhaps there is a very good reason that the
       | computer system performs like this.
       | 
       | Also, if you have the computer checking everything, then those 5
       | people that are supposed to be redundantly computing the
       | navigation plan are highly likely to be less diligent. Human
       | nature and all. Isn't that likely to result in a worse outcome?
        
         | zentiggr wrote:
         | There is a specific reason for the system performing like
         | that... a development process that lets somebody in a far off
         | office choose software components for
         | financial/political/office politics reasons, wires together
         | separate programs doing each task that are developed separately
         | with barely any integration testing until it's too damn late to
         | fix anything, and a whole host of other "our team is going to
         | do this part using X" bullshit that winds up with the overall
         | system looking like somebody tried to use Legos in one part,
         | Lincoln logs in another, pottery cast clay elsewhere, and has
         | three different interconnection schemes because each level of
         | bureaucracy involved mandated a different buzzword when it got
         | to review things two to five years after the last level saw it.
         | 
         | At least, that's what it looked like when I saw it in '98. It
         | doesn't sound like it's gotten any better.
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | I think you're identifying one of the strongest argument
         | against my claims. Automated, or computer assisted, reviews
         | will only increase error rate because humans will assume that
         | computers took care of it all.
         | 
         | You're probably on to something. When radar was first rolled
         | out to all Navy ships to assist navigation (post WWII),
         | accident rates actually _increased_.
         | 
         | My hunch is that Sailors drove ships riskier thinking that
         | radar would save them. A bit like the findings of seat-belt
         | safety laws: no impact on fatalities.
         | 
         | But I'm not agitating for full-blown computer reviews. It just
         | feels like the software should have the computing capabilities
         | of Excel lol
        
           | limbicsystem wrote:
           | That thing about seat belts - really? https://www.cdc.gov/tra
           | nsportationsafety/seatbeltbrief/index...
        
           | OldHand2018 wrote:
           | Fair enough. Perhaps something like doing checks _after_ the
           | plans have been manually computed, and then errors /warnings
           | are flagged and used for evaluations and training. But then
           | again, how is the culture of the Navy? Would such data be
           | used exclusively to punish people?
        
           | Jtsummers wrote:
           | It's a tradeoff. Trusting computers too much gets you into
           | trouble (loss of navigation skills, over reliance on a
           | potentially faulty system), but having to do things manually
           | and depending on discipline also doesn't scale. You need to
           | maintain enough discipline (validate the computer's results)
           | but still have a better source than "Well, myself and three
           | others looked at this chart for an hour and couldn't find
           | anything above 350FT".
           | 
           | Discipline works until time pressure causes discipline to
           | relax, and then the loosened discipline becomes the norm
           | (normalization of deviance). There is no reliable way to
           | restore discipline (in a timely fashion) after that happens,
           | and then a collision would become inevitable. If you only
           | rely on discipline, you're bound to fail. If you have means
           | of relieving the reliance on discipline and don't use them,
           | you're making a tragic mistake.
        
         | riskneutral wrote:
         | Everything about this hilarious and terrifying. It's hilarious
         | and terrifying that they couldn't drive a $3 billion nuclear
         | submarine without crashing it. That the navigation software on
         | the sub is so bad that there is a website about it describing
         | how its navigation software takes "minutes" to zoom in and out
         | of maps. That if the sub were to be equipped with smarter and
         | smarter autopilot software, the humans operators would
         | eventually forget how to pilot the sub themselves the way that
         | commercial airline pilots keep forgetting how to fly.
        
           | GekkePrutser wrote:
           | > That if the sub were to be equipped with smarter and
           | smarter autopilot software, the humans operators would
           | eventually forget how to pilot the sub themselves the way
           | that commercial airline pilots keep forgetting how to fly.
           | 
           | Well the lack of situational awareness with EFIS (glass
           | cockpit) systems is a known issue. Pilots tend to 'switch
           | off' because of the low workload and then when something goes
           | wrong they're not aware of the situation because they haven't
           | been following along.
           | 
           | This has contributed so some incidents such as the AF 447
           | crash where the pilots were basically unaware of the actual
           | situation of the plane and flew it straight into the ground
           | (well, sea).
           | 
           | I can understand the Navy wants its crews to be more involved
           | for that reason (and perhaps also because the enemy might
           | deliberately instill confusion by messing with navaids etc),
           | but I think there should be at least a warning if you try to
           | do something that's known to be stupid.
        
         | kbenson wrote:
         | > Also, if you have the computer checking everything, then
         | those 5 people that are supposed to be redundantly computing
         | the navigation plan are highly likely to be less diligent.
         | Human nature and all. Isn't that likely to result in a worse
         | outcome?
         | 
         | I'm not sure I've even seen a situation in practice where an
         | additional safety check made the situation worse. Those same
         | people that shirk their duties and half-ass their job under the
         | assumption the computer will just find the problems generally
         | make a plethora of other mistakes if a computer isn't there to
         | double check.
         | 
         | Computer verification of work, usually done by applying rules
         | and heuristics, is useful and when done well, and roughly
         | analogous to an additional human checker IMO. If policies and
         | expectations are set right, it's a better outcome.
         | 
         | This may or may not follow for the initial calculation being
         | done by computer and then checked by a human. Some of the
         | competitiveness of people to make sure they do the job well and
         | don't need fixes from a computer/human checker go right out the
         | window and perhaps that does lead to complacency.
        
           | soneil wrote:
           | > Also, if you have the computer checking everything, then
           | those 5 people that are supposed to be redundantly computing
           | the navigation plan are highly likely to be less diligent.
           | 
           | This is surprisingly easy to fix. If the computer notices
           | before the human, call that a failure. Say, if the computer
           | spots terrain higher than the current depth within X radius
           | (that wasn't intentionally planned for), that's a failure.
           | 
           | I assume the military already has a regime in place to handle
           | "you dun goofed". You can string failsafes after goofed but
           | before the wall.
        
           | toast0 wrote:
           | > Those same people that shirk their duties and half-ass
           | their job under the assumption the computer will just find
           | the problems generally make a plethora of other mistakes if a
           | computer isn't there to double check.
           | 
           | If they half-ass, but follow the computer fixes, maybe nobody
           | knows they were half-assing. If they half-ass and other
           | people fix it, their half-assing is known and remediations
           | are available.
        
             | kbenson wrote:
             | It's pretty easy to have the computer log and/or notify
             | about failures. Presumably if a person is double checking
             | and notices repeated failures, they would be expected to
             | notify superiors that there's a problem somewhere. I'm not
             | sure why we would assume the computer would do any less.
        
       | 9999px wrote:
       | Yeah...sure...it hit a "seamount" - it's _definitely_ not out-
       | classed and out-matched by Chinese unmanned submarine drones.
       | 
       | https://metallicman.com/uss-connecticut-black-operations-sub...
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeJLwUfLcEU
        
         | groby_b wrote:
         | The guy running that blog "has been in MAJestic", "which
         | brought you velcro, LEDs, nanotechnology"
         | 
         | Uhuh. Right there, a highly trustworthy source.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | toxik wrote:
         | I think the US misses the cold war and is trying its damn best
         | to find a new adversary to compete against. It's been said
         | before, winning the cold war made the US arrogant and
         | complacent.
         | 
         | Nb I'm talking about countries as if they were people, I do not
         | mean that people in these countries are thinking these things.
        
         | kcb wrote:
         | Something doesn't add up here. If it's China's official policy
         | that it blatantly and deliberately attacked a USN warship, why
         | aren't we at war with them? They've never directly attacked any
         | other US ships or planes in the South China Sea.
        
           | Wohlf wrote:
           | Because even if true neither country wants to go to war,
           | countries test each other's military responses all the time
           | and it never goes much further than sending in jets/ships to
           | watch each other while some diplomatic phone calls take
           | place.
        
             | kcb wrote:
             | Blowing up a USN warship is not testing, it's action.
        
               | jmnicolas wrote:
               | Yes but it wasn't supposed to be there. Are you going to
               | start WW3 for material damages? Even if the entire sub
               | had been destroyed, would you start WW3 for a few hundred
               | people?
               | 
               | No. You take the losses, put a brave face and spin a
               | story about navigation error. Then if you think you
               | weren't in the wrong and they need to get a lesson you
               | destroy something of theirs a while later.
               | 
               | Btw, I'm not saying that's what's happened. I'm just
               | hypothesizing that in case it happened like that they
               | wouldn't start WW3 over it.
        
           | pphysch wrote:
           | Foreign spies are caught and punished/executed probably every
           | year more or less. And governments have virtually no
           | incentive to admit "hey my spy got caught by the enemy".
           | Ditto for stealth submarines.
        
             | kcb wrote:
             | It's really hard for me to believe the USN allows countries
             | to blow up their warships then has the courtesy to hide it
             | domestically. The whole purpose of the USN is a show of
             | force and power projection. If countries are allowed to
             | take that sort of action without immediate retaliation that
             | is all gone.
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | Why is that hard to believe?
               | 
               | Firstly, they didn't blow it up. If the Chinese story is
               | true, they surgically disabled it. Either way, no
               | American blood was shed.
               | 
               | Secondly, the modus operandi of the contemporary Pentagon
               | is walking a fine line between a) inflating foreign
               | threats to secure Congressional funding and b) deflating
               | any challenges to the perception of American military
               | supremacy. Defending Americans from actual threats is a
               | distant follower.
        
               | kcb wrote:
               | > This was an intentional placement. This locations was
               | as far away as possible > from the nuclear power plant
               | for a close local directed-explosion attack.
               | 
               | > It was then ignited, and ended up causing serious
               | damage to the bow of the boat > and a complete loss of
               | sonar sensing ability.
               | 
               | Surgically disabled by blowing it up.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > If the Chinese story is true
               | 
               | It is not "the Chinese story"; were it the actual
               | official Chinese story we wouldn't be getting it by this
               | circuitous route, we'd get it from Chinese state media,
               | both in Chinese for domestic consumption and English
               | (etc.) for international consumption.
               | 
               | There are many criticisms you can make of the PRC, but
               | "they are incapable of assuring that their official
               | position is heard clearly and loudly" is...not among
               | them.
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | > There are many criticisms you can make of the PRC, but
               | "they are incapable of assuring that their official
               | position is heard clearly and loudly" is...not among
               | them.
               | 
               | What an incredible claim. Americans think China is
               | literally committing a Holocaust right now.
               | Chinese/Russian media is soft/hard censored on the
               | biggest Western social platforms and official narratives
               | from those governments almost never make it to
               | American/Western ears without massive amounts of spin
               | from Western state/corporate media.
               | 
               | Besides, there is a strong explanation for why Beijing
               | didn't broadcast this: they don't want to inflame
               | tensions, especially in the runup to the Olympics.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > Americans think China is literally committing a
               | Holocaust right now
               | 
               | Yes, but they aren't exactly unaware that China's
               | official position is that they are not, and the awareness
               | of this official position doesn't come through random
               | minor internet sites reporting "official" accounts
               | machine translated after being received from anonymous
               | friends who got release that were authorized by Beijing.
               | 
               | Getting the official story heard loudly and clearly and
               | getting it believed are too very different goals.
               | 
               | > Besides, there is a strong explanation for why Beijing
               | didn't broadcast this: they don't want to inflame
               | tensions, especially in the runup to the Olympics.
               | 
               | Yes, that's a very plausible reason why, even if this
               | highly improbable story were true, it wouldn't be China's
               | _official story_ right now.
               | 
               | It's not, however, even a remotely plausible reason why
               | it would be the _official_ story and simultaneously
               | _completely absent from official media_ and yet still
               | authorized for release via the channel supposedly used
               | here.
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | Don't confuse "official" with "true". Beijing is happy,
               | officially, to accept Washington's story that they
               | clumsily crashed into a rock.
               | 
               | The "true" story is really only relevant to the military
               | planners on both sides. And presently it doesn't serve
               | either of their interests to broadcast it publicly.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > Don't confuse "official" with "true".
               | 
               | I'm not.
               | 
               | The claim in the article which provided the story is that
               | it is the "official Chinese story". The article carefully
               | avoids claiming that the story is _true_ , though it
               | obviously wants people to conclude that.
               | 
               | > Beijing is happy, officially, to accept Washington's
               | story that they clumsily crashed into a rock.
               | 
               | Right. So the simplest claim in the article about the
               | story--that it is China's official story--is simply
               | false.
               | 
               | > The "true" story is really only relevant to the
               | military planners on both sides. And presently it doesn't
               | serve either of their interests to broadcast it publicly.
               | 
               | Or, maybe the true story is what is officially broadcast,
               | and the one with the obvious lie about the nature of the
               | story is false beyond just that obvious lie?
        
               | jmnicolas wrote:
               | > then has the courtesy to hide it domestically
               | 
               | If you don't hide it, you will be forced to retaliate. Do
               | you start WW3 for material damages because your public
               | opinion's pride has been hurt?
        
               | kcb wrote:
               | It's not pride that has been hurt...it's a US navy
               | warship being blown up.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | We might already be at war, and it seems to be escalating.
           | 
           | The Biden admin is growing cold to both China and Russia.
           | They just announced they won't support the 2022 Olympics.
           | 
           | Cyber warfare and espionage are reaching new peaks.
           | 
           | Russia just blew up a satellite, which caused NASA astronauts
           | to take shelter. Target practice for fog of war.
           | 
           | China demonstrated their orbital hypersonics and glide
           | platform, which is hard to track and defend against. Nuclear
           | MAD that defeats US countermeasures.
           | 
           | Russia is amassing forces to take over Ukraine and Georgia.
           | 
           | China is increasing incursions over Taiwanese airspace.
           | 
           | China is delisting from US exchanges.
           | 
           | The US pulled out of Afghanistan, freeing up personnel and
           | logistics. The best reason to do this was to prepare for a
           | two front war. They could have otherwise remained deployed
           | indefinitely.
           | 
           | Australia and Japan are buffing their navies and warfare
           | capabilities substantially.
           | 
           | The US is in the awkward period between upgrading existing
           | systems and designing next generation weapons.
           | 
           | We might really go to war in 2022 if China and Russia think
           | they can take Ukraine and Taiwan. A hot war.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | pphysch wrote:
             | Let's examine these claims:
             | 
             | > The Biden admin is growing cold to both China and Russia.
             | 
             | Washington has been cold to both nations for the better
             | part of a decade/century depending on your perspective.
             | 
             | > They just announced they won't support the 2022 Olympics.
             | 
             | False. Virtually all American athletes are attending.
             | Whether the Biden admin is diplomatically boycotting or
             | _wasn 't even invited_ is a matter of perspective.
             | 
             | > Cyber warfare and espionage are reaching new peaks.
             | 
             | > Russia just blew up a satellite, which caused NASA
             | astronauts to take shelter. Target practice for fog of war.
             | 
             | > China demonstrated their orbital hypersonics and glide
             | platform, which is hard to track and defend against.
             | Nuclear MAD that defeats US countermeasures.
             | 
             | > Russia is amassing forces to take over Ukraine and
             | Georgia.
             | 
             | > China is increasing incursions over Taiwanese airspace.
             | 
             | When a historically passive person starts acting
             | assertively, an unscrupulous observer might judge it as
             | aggression. Russia and China are demonstrating that
             | Washington is no longer the undisputed military superpower
             | it once was, that it can't bully anyone it wants. This has
             | critical geopolitical implications but does not necessarily
             | point to an inevitable war.
             | 
             | The fact is that USA has hundreds of overseas military
             | bases while Russia and China combined have less than 10.
             | Many of those American bases are on the doorstep of both
             | competitors. Until China is parking carriers in the Gulf of
             | Mexico, it hasn't even begun to reciprocate American
             | military assertiveness/aggression.
             | 
             | > China is delisting from US exchanges.
             | 
             | ...and relisting on e.g. HKEX which is historically
             | accessible to international investors from America and
             | elsewhere. More likely, Chinese companies are hedging
             | against the collapse of Wall St. (if the Fed raises rates)
             | or the USD (if they don't).
             | 
             | > The US is in the awkward period between upgrading
             | existing systems and designing next generation weapons.
             | 
             | Like the F35? Pretty sure that failure has nothing to do
             | with "bad timing" and everything to do with the corrupt
             | state of Washington and the Pentagon.
             | 
             | > We might really go to war in 2022 if China and Russia
             | think they can take Ukraine and Taiwan. A hot war.
             | 
             | Why, though? Whose interests does it really serve?
        
               | handrous wrote:
               | > > > The US is in the awkward period between upgrading
               | existing systems and designing next generation weapons.
               | 
               | > Like the F35? Pretty sure that failure has nothing to
               | do with "bad timing" and everything to do with the
               | corrupt state of Washington and the Pentagon.
               | 
               | IIRC this concern is mainly about attack sub
               | capabilities, and the US navy _will in fact_ enter a
               | period of exceptionally poor preparedness for operating
               | in the waters around Taiwan in the event that war breaks
               | out, for a few years between about 2025 and 2030. This is
               | due to procurement decisions made years and years ago,
               | since there 's huge lead-time on building new ships.
               | 
               | Whether this actually means anything--I don't know.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > If it's China's official policy that it blatantly and
           | deliberately attacked a USN warship, why aren't we at war
           | with them?
           | 
           | It is not China's official position, which is why this
           | supposed "official story" is not sourced to any official
           | Chinese media, but to an email, supposedly sent by the
           | author's anonymous friend, that contains information that was
           | supposedly authorized by Beijing on the "official Chinese
           | story" which nevertheless the PRC has _not_ released through
           | any of its many state controlled media outlets.
           | 
           | (It plausibly could have been authorized by Beijing for this
           | exact use: divisive propaganda through multiple steps of
           | deniable cutouts that has nothing to do with either the facts
           | or China's official public position. Or it could just be an
           | invention of the author, or the author's anonymous,
           | unaccountable friend.)
        
       | nick238 wrote:
       | The 'Forum' link goes to
       | https://github.com/invictus2010/fixvms/issues which seems to be a
       | private repo. Is that intended?
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | thanks nick! that is not intended. let me make it public.
         | 
         | i called it a forum because readers in the military-world may
         | be less familiar with "issues" in github ;)
        
       | mprovost wrote:
       | When I saw the URL I assumed the article was going to reveal that
       | modern submarines are still running VMS on DEC Alphas (or a
       | VAX!). Honestly I was surprised when that wasn't the case.
        
         | pacman128 wrote:
         | I thought the same at first. I worked on the Air Force AWACS E3
         | (https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-
         | Sheets/Display/Article/1045...) program as a contractor in the
         | 2000's. It had dual IBM-360 computers and wireframe-like
         | graphics for their radar displays at the time. This was the
         | Block 30/35 version. It looks like from the link that they may
         | have completely transitioned to the Block 40/45 version which
         | replaced the 360's. They were talking about this move when I
         | worked there 16 years ago.
        
       | bmmayer1 wrote:
       | This is fascinating, but also fascinating that submarines have
       | been operated in real world conditions based purely on sonar for
       | over 100 years.
        
       | flatline wrote:
       | My first house is on that map of the Severn River. I have that
       | nautical chart printed out hanging on a wall.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mightyham wrote:
       | Crappy pieces of software like that cannot simply be wholly
       | blamed on the vendor. It's up to navy leadership to decide how to
       | distribute funds to vendors to develop software. I wouldn't be
       | surprised if there is a high up navy officer who likes VMS,
       | thinks that the missions planing process is fine the way it is,
       | and doesn't want to allocate money for anything beyond bug fixes.
       | Things like that happen all the time in government software
       | contracting.
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | i dont doubt this! someone is accepting this work despite
         | decades of submarine officers losing their minds at it
        
       | ok_dad wrote:
       | That's because the Navy doesn't rely on software to do these
       | checks, the officers and crew are supposed to ensure they don't
       | crash. This idea of having software check things is dead in the
       | water, because of that. The real problem is training, and much
       | like any other human problem, this one cannot be solved through
       | technology; it has to be solved by culture changes.
       | 
       | VMS, however, was horrible a decade ago, and I'm not surprised
       | it's still horrible. We used paper charts rather than VMS back
       | then because it was so horrible.
        
         | KineticLensman wrote:
         | > This idea of having software check things is dead in the
         | water,
         | 
         | I accept that people have to make the judgement calls and sign-
         | off, but if the maps are in fact accurate why couldn't the
         | computer at least issue a warning / red flag or similar when
         | there are obvious problems (requested depth within some
         | threshold of the actual depth).
         | 
         | I came across a scenario editor for a land training simulator
         | that didn't provide any way of testing intervisibility between
         | two points. The course authors wasted vast amounts of time when
         | assigning vehicle positions clicking around maps to see if
         | potential targets were in fact visible to the trainees. An auto
         | check would have allowed the course authors to use their
         | expertise to do things that couldn't be automated, building
         | better scenarios faster.
        
           | ok_dad wrote:
           | I agree in the case of planned maneuvers for sure, however if
           | you want the result of the "5 Whys" (kinda joking) then my
           | answer is: because the contractors that build this stuff SUCK
           | ASS. Sorry for the harsh language, but I worked on a pre-com
           | ship during my time (an LCS, go figure) while it was being
           | built, and the absolute lack of standards on every level
           | (from the top of the SWO military chain through the dogshit
           | contractors) is part of what made me leave the Navy.
           | 
           | I'm not gonna complain about it too much, but man oh man, I
           | think you and I could build better software than what I saw,
           | and I don't even know you from Adam.
        
             | wyldfire wrote:
             | For sure the vendors are garbage. But maybe the COTR
             | should've rejected the work if it was unacceptable.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> maybe the COTR should 've rejected the work if it was
               | unacceptable._
               | 
               | That would require the spec to have been written to allow
               | that kind of rejection. I strongly suspect the spec was
               | not written that well.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | jwithington wrote:
             | I do want to build better software for DoD, but I can't
             | figure out how to sell in. I'd start by tackling VMS! No
             | clue how I'd go about it though.
        
               | captainredbeard wrote:
               | My understanding is that all government vendors must be
               | listed on the GSA - getting onto that is a start. Or, buy
               | a company already listed and then start fighting for
               | procurement contracts.
        
               | foxyv wrote:
               | This difficulty is part of why their software is so bad.
        
               | zentiggr wrote:
               | Without having a foot in the vendor / contracting
               | process, it's going to be near impossible.
               | 
               | Other responses have mentioned some routes inside... but
               | beware... make the incumbents look bad too much and
               | you'll be bought out and shut down.
               | 
               | Pride takes a seriously distant back seat to maintaining
               | the current procurement monopolies and relationships, and
               | maximizing contract payments for the least effort.
               | 
               | I'll stop there before I start to incriminate myself or
               | get on watch lists if I mention possible solutions.
        
               | tedmiston wrote:
               | Defense contracts are awarded extremely subjectively:
               | there is very much an old boy network in play here. There
               | are only a few primes. If you dig deeper into the "small
               | businesses" that are awarded contracts, many / most are
               | started by people already deeply involved in the defense
               | space.
               | 
               | The Air Force has an initiative called Kessel Run [1] to
               | embrace agile software development -- that might be your
               | best route to building better software for the DoD. I'm
               | not sure if other branches have similar programs.
               | 
               | https://breakingdefense.com/2021/10/not-going-solo-air-
               | force...
        
         | alwayshumans wrote:
         | The vast majority of navigational incidents are caused by human
         | error, but better systems would give the crew a chance to
         | realise their mistakes
         | 
         | At the moment lots of maritime crew have alarm fatigue, the
         | system constantly warns them of danger so they learn to ignore
         | alarms and when something super serious does happen, they can
         | ignore it
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | Sure, the officers and crew are ultimately responsible. But how
         | are "we" enabling the officers and crew to do their jobs?
         | Manually verifying minimum soundings is a terrible use of one's
         | time AND something that a computer will beat a human at every
         | time.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | A colleague visited a multi-billion-dollar, safety-critical
           | facility that had adopted automated alarms based on safety
           | rules.
           | 
           | He was there because they were asking for software to help
           | them sift through the cacophony of constantly-firing alarms
           | which were distracting all their staff playing whack-a-mole
           | "disable" and ruining situational awareness.
           | 
           | I imagine it's similar here. Do you want the sub to move up
           | automatically? To fire an alarm? To dissalow a maneuver?
           | Absolutely not. Imagine a crew knowingly pushing their
           | vehicle into potentially dangerous maneuvers and spending
           | those critical moments fighting the vehicle or disabling
           | alarms.
           | 
           | This is how the "stick pusher" causes crashes on airplanes.
           | 
           | The fault lies with whomever commanded the maneuver, not with
           | the ship for doing a minor mutiny to prevent it.
           | 
           | Now, as a counterpoint, see the f-16 auto-maneuver (I think
           | this is a representative link):
           | https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA583778.pdf
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | > I imagine it's similar here. Do you want the sub to move
             | up automatically? To fire an alarm? To dissalow a maneuver?
             | Absolutely not. Imagine a crew knowingly pushing their
             | vehicle into potentially dangerous maneuvers and spending
             | those critical moments fighting the vehicle or disabling
             | alarms.
             | 
             | These kind of systems typically have manual overrides. If
             | the operator truly believes they know best (or are in an
             | exceptional situation that the automated system cannot
             | account for), they can override the automated system
             | (including many, if not most, safeguards). That's design
             | 101 when you're building critical systems.
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | I imagine there are systems which are much more mature
               | and un-intrusive, but my limited experience with the
               | space has been quite negative.
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | > The real problem is training, and much like any other human
         | problem, this one cannot be solved through technology; it has
         | to be solved by culture changes.
         | 
         | What this makes me think of:
         | 
         | > Why test software? It's a culture problem, not a technical
         | problem. Just write correct software.
         | 
         | As long as no one ever makes a mistake it's a totally valid
         | approach...
        
       | tra3 wrote:
       | Remind me when USS McCain collided with another ship in a busy
       | channel [0]. Because of a UI issue, they couldn't figure out
       | where throttle control was and ran into someone. Which is crazy
       | to me.
       | 
       | I was going to say, that there probably a few dozen people that
       | use submarine nav software, so it's hard to get a representative
       | sample of usability...but then it occurred to me that airplane
       | software has a fairly limited audience too.
       | 
       | What's the process for test for developing aircraft software? How
       | is nav done in aircraft? Theoretically they have the same issues
       | (like hitting the ground).
       | 
       | [0]: https://arstechnica.com/information-
       | technology/2017/11/uss-m...
        
         | kayodelycaon wrote:
         | I think there are several orders of magnitude more planes than
         | submarines.
         | 
         | From Wikipedia:
         | 
         | Los Angeles class submarines built: 62, entering service 1976.
         | 
         | Abus A350s built: 443, entering service 2015.
        
           | tra3 wrote:
           | Fair enough, I suppose. The article author was comparing
           | submarine nav software to phone nav software though and
           | google says there are 5+ billion mobile users. That's another
           | couple of order of magnitude more. That'd explain why mobile
           | software is more polished. I guess any kind of mass market
           | product would be higher quality. The same argument ("number
           | of eyeballs") has been used with open source software vs
           | closed source.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | _" Because of a UI issue, they couldn't figure out where
         | throttle control was and ran into someone."_
         | 
         | That's happened more than once. NYC ferryboat allision.[1] It's
         | another case of touchscreen mania. With ship controls, it's
         | common to have more than one control station for basic helm and
         | throttle. When docking, it's common to drive from a control
         | station where you can see the dock. So which station has
         | control is an issue. Some systems have physical feedback, so
         | that the wheel and throttles at all stations move together.
         | That avoids mode confusion.
         | 
         | Aircraft people get this, but few others seem to.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.workboat.com/passenger-vessels/seastreak-
         | ferry-a...
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | There are probably a few thousand users of submarine navigation
         | software. But the willingness to pay *should* be quite high,
         | which in most other markets would translate to a quality
         | product. The tool should help submarines:
         | 
         | * Prevent groundings (loss of a $3B platform, 120+ lives in
         | worst case) * Do their missions better (increase the value of
         | the platform)
        
           | tra3 wrote:
           | They probably have a laundry list of requirements (like
           | nuclear containment?) before they even get to software.
           | 
           | I've been in many a design meeting where a "must have" was
           | pushed out to the next version because "the user can just do
           | this manually for now".
        
         | hguant wrote:
         | The UI issue is real, and is a problem, but the root cause of
         | the 7th Fleet's crashes during that time period is lack of
         | training and inadequate leadership, due to an operational tempo
         | that's Thenot sustainable given current funding and ships.
         | Instead of building new cruisers, or taking the time to dry
         | dock and repair these ships, the admiralty has been ok'ing "at
         | sea" repairs, leading to situations like this where primary
         | systems aren't functional and back up systems are run for far
         | longer than intended. The admiralty has been looking for
         | technical solutions to a human problem for about a decade now,
         | becaise they'd rather buy a new set of carriers and the F-35
         | than build the ships they need to support the mission given to
         | them by Congress. The result is burnout, and incidents like
         | this.
         | 
         | The Navy as a whole has a severe manpower shortage, and in the
         | incident report for the McCain collision I believe it came out
         | that the officer on duty was 17 hours into their watch, and
         | didn't have a full compliment in the watch house because one of
         | the crew who was supposed to be there was off in the lower
         | decks for an unstated purpose (anecdotal evidence from my Navy
         | friends, probably catching up on sleep, or seconded to repair
         | something while they had "non-critical" time).
         | 
         | The collision only happened because instead of being trained on
         | seamanship as a whole, incoming officers are trained how to
         | work the computer systems they're interfacing with. The Navy
         | cut down the training periods as well - instead of training
         | under a senior officer for a few months, to offset manpower
         | shortages, incoming officers are put in charge immediately, and
         | given a stack of CDs (wish I was kidding) to complete their
         | training.
         | 
         | The surface Navy is in an incredibly dysfunctional place right
         | now, and Congress/the admiralty have been paperig over
         | leadership failures by spending more money, and blaming
         | technology
        
       | gattr wrote:
       | A bit off-topic, but maybe some experts could answer a question?
       | 
       | I've recently re-read Clancy's "Red Storm Rising", the sections
       | on submarine (and anti-) warfare are really interesting (I
       | understand some of it may be simplified/fictional). E.g., how the
       | Mark 48 torpedo can be set to and launched in "hunting mode",
       | where it circles at a slow, undetectable speed, and only after
       | acquiring a target it suddenly accelerates for a kill.
       | 
       | Let's consider this excerpt from [1]:
       | 
       |  _Terminal Homing is the final stage of the torpedo attack. (...)
       | Terminal homing is an active sonar ping that retransmits on
       | reception becoming more rapid as the range to target closes at
       | maximum speed. (...) The target is alerted to the attack, but
       | there is nothing it can do to defeat the weapon at this point.
       | The weapon is too close and moving too fast to allow time for a
       | countermeasure to be effective._
       | 
       | Now, I might have read too much David Weber ([2]), but wouldn't a
       | small, cheap-ish counter-torpedo suffice? Put 10-20 of them in
       | small automated launchers all around the hull, and let them crash
       | head-on with the (now perfectly detectable) approaching boat-
       | killer, still at a safe distance (which is.. I don't know,
       | 100-200 m?)
       | 
       | [1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33018/modern-
       | submarine...
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honorverse
        
         | tra3 wrote:
         | Like chaff [0] or flares?
         | 
         | I wonder if you could triangulate the launch point though.
         | 
         | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaff_(countermeasure)
        
           | virtue3 wrote:
           | From what I've seen on naval ships you'd launch it to the
           | side that is incoming so you'd be behind the wall of Chaff. I
           | think that would be significantly harder to triangulate
           | because you'd mostly just see the noisy stuff up front and
           | your original target would be behind the wall of chaff.
           | 
           | Chaff is also designed to reflect signals all over the place
           | so that it's difficult to get accurate results back. This
           | would make triangulating near impossible (if it's working as
           | intended)
        
         | greedo wrote:
         | The problem is difficult due to the inability to use radar as a
         | guidance mechanism for the "anti-torpedo torpedo."
        
         | virtue3 wrote:
         | Kind of a sword vs shield thing as most things in the military.
         | 
         | There are sonar decoys. They aren't easy.
         | 
         | You also have to have it rigged ready to go with very little
         | notice.
         | 
         | The other aspect is that these torpedoes can still be wired to
         | the ship so you can continue to use the host sub's arguably
         | better passive sonar systems and let the attacking torpedo get
         | VERY close.
         | 
         | As with all things in submersible conflict the first person to
         | be heard is dead.
         | 
         | The other aspect of your decoy system that you might not be
         | thinking about is that you've a) compromised the hull with
         | holes b) you are going to make a LOT of noise firing those off
         | c) your sonar signature might go up dramatically when the doors
         | are opened etc.
         | 
         | The hull actually has something similar to stealth coating (but
         | for sonar, so easier to develop cuz it's against sound waves)
         | on the hull. You really don't want to mess with it too much.
         | 
         | Sub warfare is insane. There isn't really a strong counter to
         | them in the open ocean. USN Carrier groups are especially
         | vulnerable (at least from exercises I've read about).
         | 
         | Your idea isn't bad. Just make it a towed array that pops off a
         | bunch of really loud shit 1000m behind you or something.
         | 
         | This would eventually turn into a cat/mouse game of who can
         | make a better system for detecting decoys vs fooling torpedoes.
         | 
         | If you read up on china's new hypersonic missile system you can
         | get a feeling for why this shit is terrifying sometimes.
         | Fractional Orbital Bombardment System is new and very scary for
         | the USA missile defense systems. They effectively shrink the
         | "we can see it range" down to a very small amount of time to
         | respond. Combine that with MIRV warheads and decoys and it's a
         | nightmare.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Yes several navies are working on torpedo interceptors.
         | 
         | https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/04/16/navies-...
        
       | whatrocks wrote:
       | I'm working on some cool submarine software here:
       | https://adventofcode.com/
        
       | qwertyuiop_ wrote:
       | "CRUD boys" at it again. I am glad this hasn't crept into
       | avionics.
        
       | northisup wrote:
       | advent of code is actively working on this...
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | is it really?? you're the second one to post this
        
           | Jtsummers wrote:
           | The story this year has you descending into the ocean in a
           | submarine.
        
       | zppln wrote:
       | Although it does sound like this piece of software could use
       | improvement, I would never expect a mission support system to be
       | the only thing safeguarding me from going aground. I don't know
       | anything about submarines, but I would expect some kind of real-
       | time navigation system to alert me before hand.
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | To clarify: this is the real-time navigation system lol
        
           | zppln wrote:
           | Oh, I was under the impression it was just a planning system.
           | Mea culpa!
        
             | jwithington wrote:
             | I think I should make this more clear! It serves both
             | functions.
        
         | thuccess129 wrote:
         | > I don't know anything about submarines, but I would expect
         | some kind of real-time navigation system to alert me before
         | hand.
         | 
         | For docking simulation to the space station, SpaceX has a
         | website for controlling the Dragon capsule's UI. That could be
         | the UI ergonomy baseline for measuring the current submarine's
         | software against. The Orion and Starliner capsules have their
         | own different more hardware oriented UI. I would expect nextgen
         | submariners to be digital first native fast twitch glass screen
         | navigators, but a submarine taking damage will be a splashy
         | environment as seen in the movies and touch screens won't be as
         | reliable as physical toggles with redundant bypasses etc.
         | 
         | Maybe "Fat Leonard" contributed to the contracting process that
         | put this software on the suboptimal submarine without proper
         | human factors consideration.
        
       | alwayshumans wrote:
       | So one of the fundamental design elements of a electronic chart
       | display information system(Ecdis) or warfare Ecdis is the use of
       | the safety depth contour.
       | 
       | Anything inside the blue area would cause alarming on a
       | traditional Ecdis.
       | 
       | The bigger issue is the data that is used to navigate on, I could
       | write a very boring blog detailing why th systems work so
       | badly...
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | you should! let's geek out on it
        
       | GartzenDeHaes wrote:
       | In the mid-2000's, I hired a recent college grad who was in the
       | US Navy. Her job in the Navy was to administrate a MS Exchange
       | server on a ship. It was kind of mind blowing to learn that each
       | ship had a full MS back-end stack.
        
         | trcarney wrote:
         | Yup, and backed up with magnetic tape every night.
        
       | tablespoon wrote:
       | > The Connecticut alone carries enough torpedoes to destroy any
       | other nation's entire nuclear submarine force.
       | 
       | Nitpick, but isn't that a lot like saying "this magazine carries
       | enough bullets to kill a whole platoon of soldiers"? I mean, it
       | technically does, but only if they're all lined up in front of
       | you and you never miss, which is almost certainly not true in
       | real-world conditions.
       | 
       | > This failure to intervene is probably the most egregious
       | shortcoming of VMS. But it's notoriously awful along other
       | dimensions. Here's some of what I remember, mixed in with
       | conversations with folks more recently onboard:
       | 
       | It seems like the military really ought to give the users of
       | systems like this the ability to say "fuck no" and send it back
       | after doing some user testing. Some of the issue identified are
       | egregious and maybe the kind of thing that could get a submarine
       | that's actually fighting sunk. I mean, it sounds like it's so bad
       | it nearly got a submarine that was just cruising around sunk.
        
         | jwithington wrote:
         | I do think that's a fair critique of my analogy on the
         | firepower of a Seawolf class submarine.
         | 
         | I'm trying to relay that it's exceedingly deadly submarine. The
         | best in the world. The envy of all other submarine classes.
         | 
         | I don't think there are fighter aircraft that carry enough
         | missiles to down an entire country's bomber force.
         | 
         | The Seawolf was made to destroy other ships. It has all the
         | stats and capabilities to do it. But the kicker is it has
         | incredibly bad navigation software.
        
           | quesera wrote:
           | I read it with the opposite meaning:
           | 
           | > The Connecticut alone carries enough torpedoes to destroy
           | any other nation's entire nuclear submarine force.
           | 
           | The Connecticut _uniquely_ carries enough torpedoes to
           | destroy...
           | 
           | vs.
           | 
           | The Connecticut carries enough torpedoes to _single-handedly_
           | destroy...
        
           | mLuby wrote:
           | That's reasonable.
           | 
           | Sloppier would've been: "The Connecticut alone _could_
           | destroy any other nation 's entire nuclear submarine force."
        
             | jwithington wrote:
             | Well, the design requirements for the Seawolf class were
             | actually probably something like this!
             | 
             | Basically the Navy wanted a monster that go deep behind
             | Soviet lines and tear things up before they made it out of
             | the backyard.
             | 
             | "[Seawolf's] emphasis on fast tactical search speeds and a
             | massive torpedo magazine were reflections of its design
             | mission, which was to independently search for and kill
             | Soviet submarines in the relatively confined and target
             | rich northern waters of the Soviet Arctic littoral." [1]
             | 
             | [1] https://digital-
             | commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl...
        
         | scottLobster wrote:
         | Yeah, it sounds impressive until you realize that only 8
         | nations have more than a dozen submarines, and most nations
         | have zero.
        
           | zauguin wrote:
           | It's even more restrictive since the statement is only about
           | nuclear subs. I don't think that there are 8 nations with
           | nuclear subs at all, let alone a dozen of them.
        
           | handrous wrote:
           | Hell, if we assume one-hit-kills and no duds/misses, a mid-
           | war German U-Boat probably qualifies for the same
           | achievement, as far as sheer amount of ordnance carried. Not
           | that WWII subs were any good at hunting other subs, but
           | still. It's not really impressive or surprising that a sub
           | would carry enough torpedoes to _technically_ be able to sink
           | all the nuclear subs of any non-US country.
        
         | throwmamatrain wrote:
         | Torpedos are not bullets, I don't think this is a good analogy.
        
           | KineticLensman wrote:
           | > Torpedos are not bullets, I don't think this is a good
           | analogy.
           | 
           | The point of the analogy is that the enemy platoon / nuclear
           | submarine force would need be to be located and behave in a
           | way that allowed a single shooter to wipe them all out almost
           | simultaneously. This is particularly unlikely for submarines,
           | especially nuclear-armed ones.
        
             | handrous wrote:
             | > especially nuclear-armed ones.
             | 
             | I took "nuclear sub" to mean "nuclear powered" (as opposed
             | to e.g. diesel-electric, which are still fairly common),
             | which _I think_ represents a somewhat larger set of
             | submarines, outside the US, than just the set of all non-US
             | "boomer" (nuclear-armed) subs. That is, attack subs without
             | nuke-tipped missiles can still be _nuclear subs_ because
             | they have a nuke plant onboard for power.
        
               | KineticLensman wrote:
               | Agree - it's not actually clear which type is meant. If
               | boomers then this is a indeed very small number (e.g.
               | only four for the UK, which is one of the few non-US
               | countries (four?) to operate boomers).
        
           | tablespoon wrote:
           | > Torpedos are not bullets, I don't think this is a good
           | analogy.
           | 
           | They aren't, but I'm sure there are operational complications
           | to using them that make the analogy work (e.g.
           | countermeasures).
        
         | FridayoLeary wrote:
         | i think the author is trying more to highlight the importance
         | of the submarine by mentioning it's singular capabilities.
        
       | octorian wrote:
       | I would argue that software written under government contract is
       | inherently awful and unusable, because...
       | 
       | - It is driven entirely by formal requirements and specifications
       | 
       | - These requirements are approved by "the customer," which is a
       | set of people completely independent from "the actual users."
       | 
       | - A requirements document cannot easily capture "the UI/UX
       | doesn't suck," because that sort of thing often tends to be more
       | subjective or not well thought out in advance.
       | 
       | - The developers often pat themselves on the back for meeting the
       | requirements.
       | 
       | - The customer has to accept the software and foist it on the
       | users, because it meets the requirements.
       | 
       | ...and...
       | 
       | - The competition is entirely about who gets the contract to
       | build the software, and not for which software is actually the
       | best.
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | The thing about this is the best software stack I've ever
         | worked on was for a government system, driving geointelligence
         | ground processing for the NRO. It is still light years ahead of
         | anything I've ever seen in the commercial world, but it's
         | driving automated systems, so there is no UI. Anything I've
         | ever worked on in the IC or DoD that had a UI pretty much
         | universally had a terrible UI, and I agree the root of the
         | problem is the absolute firewall between development teams and
         | end users. Beyond that, though, individual acquisition offices
         | often seem quite hostile to their own users and don't make any
         | attempt to acquire software they'll actually like using.
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | That last part is key.
         | 
         | I suspect some form of X-prize approach would be worth trying -
         | seed out a large number of small ISVs for government software
         | (from license management to submarine firing systems).
         | 
         | Spend the money not in the requirements (which as you say are
         | usually written by a non developer with minimal experience of
         | the problem - after all if they were an expert they would have
         | other more useful things to do) and spend the money on building
         | automated test rigs.
         | 
         | I know I sound trite, and this is not even the best way (which
         | is to organically grow solutions to problems), but we have a
         | small window - software is eating everything and we will need
         | to write the first generation of software that covers all
         | politics and I damn well want that to be open to everyone to
         | read. The software that runs governments will essentially be
         | law. We should be free to read our laws
        
         | inetknght wrote:
         | > _- It is driven entirely by formal requirements and
         | specifications_
         | 
         | Can you explain why this is a bad thing? I've found that formal
         | requirements and specifications are almost always good unless
         | they're just vague (in which case: they're not really _formal_
         | )
         | 
         | > _- These requirements are approved by "the customer," which
         | is a set of people completely independent from "the actual
         | users."_
         | 
         | Well, yes. That is indeed a problem.
         | 
         | > _- A requirements document cannot easily capture "the UI/UX
         | doesn't suck," because that sort of thing often tends to be
         | more subjective or not well thought out in advance._
         | 
         | I've found that very _very_ few people actively request people
         | to say  "your UI sucks". Instead, they want "constructive
         | criticism" and/or "describe _why_ it sucks! ". Which, is
         | sort've fair. But it gets to be extremely tiring to explain why
         | the UX doesn't "just suck" but is fundamentally flawed.
         | 
         | > _- The developers often pat themselves on the back for
         | meeting the requirements._
         | 
         | Nothing wrong with that either.
         | 
         | > _- The customer has to accept the software and foist it on
         | the users, because it meets the requirements._
         | 
         | The customer has to accept the software because that's how
         | contracts are done. But they don't have to foist it on the
         | users. They just want to show that they've been able to deliver
         | on their promise of a software solution.
         | 
         | > _- The competition is entirely about who gets the contract to
         | build the software, and not for which software is actually the
         | best._
         | 
         | Well that's quite a problem.
        
           | unionpivo wrote:
           | > - It is driven entirely by formal requirements and
           | specifications Can you explain why this is a bad thing? I've
           | found that formal requirements and specifications are almost
           | always good unless they're just vague (in which case: they're
           | not really formal)
           | 
           | I have been in various projects for government and
           | enterprises (non military, mostly medical and banking fields)
           | with formal requirements and some without. I can say that
           | those without always had better GUI and people using them
           | liked it better. I think that one major reason is that most
           | people can't really imagine application without actually
           | using it. Only once they are using it they can give you
           | useful feedback (as in this is important, this isn't, make
           | that action default etc.)
           | 
           | Another reason is that people that are not using it are
           | writing requirements. For instance in a lot of medical
           | applications, people who will write specs and requirements
           | are Business managers or doctors (or both), but not radiology
           | technicians and nurses that will actually use the software.
           | So they have no idea of day to day workflow - just desired
           | outcome. So software will suck 100% if based only on their
           | requirements (in my personal experience).
        
         | atribecalledqst wrote:
         | I definitely agree that not being able to capture "UI/UX
         | shouldn't suck" in a formal requirement is a problem.
         | Developers have to be vigilant, or get a lot of help from QA
         | (typically the latter).
         | 
         | In my experience, though, there is a bit of a feedback loop
         | during government test events since those are often staffed by
         | real end users. If the end user doesn't like the software they
         | can just say it failed the test, even if it did meet the
         | requirements as written. So at least there's a bit of an upside
         | there.
         | 
         | It would be nice if that feedback with the end user could occur
         | earlier in the process though.
        
         | trcarney wrote:
         | The biggest issue with software written under government
         | contract, firm fixed price contracts. The way these are handled
         | is not a good way to handle software. The winning contractor
         | has a set of requirements for the software they have to
         | deliver. If the customer wants to change anything, there has to
         | be a bidding process and either a new contract or an add-on
         | contract is awarded. This makes the customer very hesitant the
         | make changes to the requirements even in the face of user
         | feedback.
         | 
         | There is also no way to get user feedback until after the final
         | software is delivered. It would have made life so much easier
         | when I was a contractor if we could have had a group of users
         | come in and see the software and make recommendations for the
         | UI.
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | Special purpose software built for use by just a few people tends
       | to be the worst software.
       | 
       | Many people have tried to fix that problem, few succeed.
        
         | jopsen wrote:
         | Yeah, this goes pretty much everywhere.
         | 
         | I guess our industry is still ripe for disruption. Should
         | someone figure out how make quality software cheap :)
        
       | mLuby wrote:
       | > It's unacceptable work from our vendors and procurement
       | processes... It's as if our procurement process and the vendor
       | collaborated to absolve themselves from any responsibility by
       | serving us such an aggressively unhelpul[sic] tool.
       | 
       | If subs were companies, competition would solve this problem.
       | Some enterprising engineer says to herself "I can build a better
       | VMS" and does. Since it's 10x better than the existing VMS, some
       | submarine crews adopt it, and pretty soon it's in widespread use
       | across the fleet. Engineer profits, sub crews are more effective
       | and probably it's cheaper too.
       | 
       | But it's the government, even worse it's defense. So regulations
       | and secrecy (some reasonable, some not) muddy the waters until
       | everyone's blind, including apparently the VMS.
        
         | trasz wrote:
         | If subs were companies, they would all be sold long ago to
         | China and India.
        
           | mLuby wrote:
           | That does happen. :)
        
       | willis936 wrote:
       | It is surprising that there isn't constant passive bathymetrics.
       | The models exist, the hydrophones are already there, and the
       | entire hardware/software stack needed to implement it is there.
       | What's the hold up?
        
         | intpx wrote:
         | Just a guess, but stealth is one of the primary design
         | requirements even passive coils are RF devices.
        
           | willis936 wrote:
           | No way. RF doesn't go anywhere in water. Besides, an entire
           | hydrophone array is at least 60 dB quieter than propulsion
           | systems in terms of EM emissions and will be on par with life
           | support systems, which I assume do not ever get voluntarily
           | shut down underwater.
        
       | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
       | > the navigational software on the $3B warship is far less
       | capable any maps app on your phone. The software, called "Voyage
       | Management System" (VMS), is the hub of all the ship's planning.
       | But it can't even do basic safety-of-ship alerting.
       | 
       | My phone can do "safety-of-ship" alerting? I'm the first to shit
       | on defense software, it's my background, but map software for a
       | submarine is safety-critical. While submerged it's basically
       | their eyes. It has to be more reliable and trustworthy than
       | possibly any other map software. Not only this but navigation
       | information would have to be fused together from GPS as well as
       | INS (inertial nav).
       | 
       | My 2 cents. Background in defense but not submarines.
        
         | aaron695 wrote:
         | > My phone can do "safety-of-ship" alerting?
         | 
         | Yes. Never controlled a drone from your phone?
         | 
         | The fact you've worked defence and can't see how consumer
         | devices do things submarines can't is the issue.
         | 
         | We all know a submarine is worth x billion, a drone much less.
         | We understand about critical failure on each.
         | 
         | You job is to work out how to merge the two, but instead
         | defence hides behind ideas like verifying software. Software
         | verification should be a tool, not a wall for bureaucrats to
         | hide behind.
        
         | roywiggins wrote:
         | Navy software (among, to be fair, other things) killed 10
         | sailors in a preventable collision:
         | 
         | https://features.propublica.org/navy-uss-mccain-crash/navy-i...
        
         | 0xfeba wrote:
         | I've worked in defense as well. Older software seemed to be
         | tested more, or otherwise more reliable. Sure, it could be
         | outdated, but generally it was usable.
         | 
         | As they moved away from embedded to more networked and newer
         | tech stacks things got terrible. The software world of today is
         | not compatible with the needs of the defense industry.
         | 
         | Plus all the red tape and misdirection. The software need comes
         | from an organizational budget that has to use money to justify
         | receiving money. Then it funnels down into political buckets,
         | who use the dollar amount given to determine needs/wants. Then
         | it goes back up the chain to the government. Then to a
         | contractor, then a flurry of subcontractors. Then finally a
         | developer. Rarely is the warfighter who will actually use the
         | system consulted. Even then, rarely will the programmer meet
         | that person using the software.
         | 
         | Yet they all call themselves "agile" now.
        
           | dn3500 wrote:
           | I was a developer at a large contracter doing work for the
           | Navy in the 1970s. Compared to today, there was almost zero
           | code review, but an insane amount of testing, from the lowest
           | module level to the highest integration level, both against
           | the requirements and in simulation. We did not subcontract
           | software. I often wished I could talk to the warfighter who
           | was going to use my stuff but it never happened. Worse I
           | never got any feedback on whether my stuff was even used. We
           | did have quite a few ex-Navy people in our dev group and that
           | did help.
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | How efficient was that? How fast could you develop
             | solutions?
        
               | virtue3 wrote:
               | https://news.usni.org/2019/08/09/navy-reverting-ddgs-
               | back-to...
               | 
               | Fucking bad from what I've read. It's a really bad
               | problem still and the USN needs to correct it by having a
               | tighter integration with the HW/SW people and the actual
               | soldiers/sailors.
        
           | zentiggr wrote:
           | Twenty years ago, when VMS just got introduced, it behaved
           | like this...
           | 
           | I can't believe that after all this time, it's still
           | completely borked, in all the same ways.
           | 
           | Somebody at NAVSEA needs to be dragged by their nostrils out
           | on a deployment, take notes, and go back to their office with
           | their pride in a garbage bag.
           | 
           | Proud as hell to have served, and angry as hell that our
           | current crews are still dealing with the same
           | ---procurement--- failures.
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | That's from the time when everything was still (and
             | everything still being planned for the replacements were
             | also) big-bang releases. 5-10 year projects to replace the
             | broken system that still lack the necessary capabilities.
             | I've never worked on a Navy project, but I've seen several
             | spectacular USAF failures of similar magnitude. The most
             | hilarious (in an absurdist sense) was having 3 generations
             | of a system running concurrently because none of them had
             | all the necessary features, when I left they were working
             | on number 4.
        
           | jcadam wrote:
           | The only time I had contact with the end user as a defense
           | contractor was when I was working on-site in an R&D shop,
           | where we were creating software for users that were all in
           | the same "integrated" team with us. That was the only job
           | I've had in the industry I could describe as "fast-paced."
        
           | jwithington wrote:
           | I don't think all of those problems are unique to government
           | software. Some (a lot?) enterprise software is atrocious and
           | disliked by end users. That's because the people making the
           | purchasing decisions != end users.
           | 
           | But it's flabbergasting just how bad VMS is considering it's
           | the navigation system for these national assets. It's not
           | like an HR system with poor UX--navigation is essential to
           | the safety and effectiveness of the whole platform!
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | > Some (a lot?) enterprise software is atrocious and
             | disliked by end users. That's because the people making the
             | purchasing decisions != end users.
             | 
             | It's because the people making decisions care about putting
             | money where it earns the most return and have more on their
             | plate than they can address. Making software more pleasant
             | for internal users rarely makes it to the top of the list.
             | 
             | > navigation is essential to the safety and effectiveness
             | of the whole platform!
             | 
             | Subs crash very rarely, so the software seems to be
             | sufficient.
        
           | VBprogrammer wrote:
           | I suspect any kind of sustained warfare in the modern era
           | would result in the immediate obsolescence of much of the
           | equipment designed in peacetime.
        
             | noja wrote:
             | Warfare would not even be required
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
        
         | LeifCarrotson wrote:
         | Your phone has Google Maps or Apple Maps, which will alert you
         | when there are road closures or hazards ahead, yes. It even has
         | a list of places where there are roads, and places where there
         | are not roads, and will not (typically) direct you to go off-
         | roading. The behavior of VMS is like punching in a street
         | address and having Maps tell you to go straight there as the
         | crow flies.
         | 
         | It's hard to redundantly guarantee correctness, if you wanted
         | to rely on VMS to avoid hitting the seafloor that would indeed
         | be difficult. But come on, how hard is it to offer a highlight
         | for the shallowest points near your course, or a warning that
         | says "you added an extra zero here"?
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | > Your phone has Google Maps or Apple Maps, which will alert
           | you when there are road closures or hazards ahead, yes. It
           | even has a list of places where there are roads, and places
           | where there are not roads, and will not (typically) direct
           | you to go off-roading.
           | 
           | Google's servers have this information, compiled in real time
           | from countless sources including direct satellite cartography
           | and all beamed to a phone acting as little more than a user
           | interface. Take your phone a few hundred feet below the water
           | where it is cut off from the outside world and even the best
           | maps in the world aren't accurate and you're going to run
           | into a lot of things.
        
             | gravypod wrote:
             | (Opinions are my own)
             | 
             | You can actually operate Google maps with no internet
             | connection: https://support.google.com/maps/answer/6291838?
             | hl=en&co=GENI...
             | 
             | This will not have the same feature set but the UI will let
             | you know that this is operating with reduced data. Route
             | planning is still very good offline. I had to use this
             | feature because for some time part of my route home had no
             | cell signal.
        
               | rch wrote:
               | I use this hiking sometimes. Not as good as GPS
               | obviously, but better than AllTrails.
        
               | tekno45 wrote:
               | doesn't that still allow GPS communication?
        
               | Eelongate wrote:
               | It certainly does. Pure inertial guidance with smartphone
               | sensors is garbage. I must say I'm a bit startled by how
               | many people evidently think that GPS is an internet
               | service...
        
             | trcarney wrote:
             | You could have a local copy onboard. There should be enough
             | rack space on the boat to keep a copy that gets updated
             | when the boat gets connected to shore data. Also for sea
             | data, the data set would be much smaller because it hardly
             | changes, and you don't have as many variables(i.e. live
             | traffic, construction, etc), especially under the sea.
        
           | semireg wrote:
           | Early in the Apple Maps days I took a road trip from
           | Minneapolis to the west coast and back. Somewhere in southern
           | Wyoming we were headed to the front range in Summit County
           | (west of Denver) and maps took us on what I can only describe
           | as a dirt road up a mountain complete with wildlife of goats
           | or whatever terrestrial creatures stirred.
           | 
           | But the best part? Seeing all the other users of maps along
           | the route! Barely enough room for two cars to pass. But we
           | had each other. Everyone would hold up their iPhone and mouth
           | "WTF?" with wide eyes.
        
             | lostlogin wrote:
             | It would be fascinating to see what it took for people to
             | stop and turn back.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Some of those roads are too narrow to turn around.
        
         | Waterluvian wrote:
         | Exactly how I feel when someone shows up to the GIS domain with
         | Google Maps and is like "why can't you old timers be more like
         | this?!"
        
       | GekkePrutser wrote:
       | Whoa... I had no idea that submarine software was this bad. Not
       | just the lack of warnings but also "Waits for VMS to load the
       | next screen, which can take minutes.". Why do you have to wait
       | minutes to load a map?? And why is this running Windows XP?
       | 
       | I'm also surprised there's no contour lines between the depths
       | (although perhaps this is done to not infer a knowledge of depths
       | in the intermediate points where perhaps there is no such
       | knowledge).
        
         | gaetgu wrote:
         | IIRC the military actually got a private extension to XP's EOL
         | from Microsoft just so that they don't have to change all that
         | tech.
        
           | GekkePrutser wrote:
           | Oh really but even still up to now?? I mean the EOL was in
           | 2014. How long do they keep that up? :)
           | 
           | I suppose they do what we do in our factories at work.
           | Airgapping and extremely strict firewalling where any access
           | is needed.
        
         | chiph wrote:
         | > I'm also surprised there's no contour lines between the
         | depths (although perhaps this is done to not infer a knowledge
         | of depths in the intermediate points where perhaps there is no
         | such knowledge).
         | 
         | Yes, contour lines would imply accuracy that isn't there. The
         | depth numbers indicate positions where the depth was actually
         | measured. Any other location that doesn't have a number was not
         | measured. Bear in mind that even if you have a depth number on
         | your chart, it might be old and out of date. Safe navigation is
         | never guaranteed. And subs never run depth-finder sonar when on
         | patrol.
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | How do depth numbers get out of date?
           | 
           | Sedimentation?
           | 
           | Underwater volcano eruption?
           | 
           | Continental drift?
        
             | zentiggr wrote:
             | The broken assumption thee is that the ocean floor doesn't
             | change. Things are changing all the time. Faster and faster
             | as you get shallower and shallower.
             | 
             | Shipping channels and shallows need to be resurveyed
             | constantly or you have no idea what you might encounter.
        
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