[HN Gopher] Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you'll fail the test
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Want to be an actuary? Odds are, you'll fail the test
        
       Author : pondsider
       Score  : 54 points
       Date   : 2021-12-28 18:25 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | tibbar wrote:
       | I passed one of the actuary exams (P) after college after taking
       | <$many> applied stats classes. I'm glad I did because it gave me
       | a very good intuition for conditional and bayesian probabilities.
       | I'm sure I wouldn't pass it if I took it right now, and I would
       | never want to study for the other exams, but I think this one was
       | a real win that taught transferable skills.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | feoren wrote:
       | To be honest, everyone working in science, engineering, data
       | science, actuarial science, or really any numbers-heavy field
       | should be able to answer that first question by reasoning through
       | it. It may be slow, it may require drudging up some distant
       | memories from college, or it may even require a visit to
       | Wikipedia; but if you work with numbers and you can't do that
       | example problem, you owe it to your profession to brush up on
       | your statistics. People not understanding pretty basic statistics
       | like that is a major root cause of almost all the problems in
       | science today (p-hacking, etc.). Many, many statistics problems
       | (including the example) can be solved easily (again: not
       | necessarily quickly) by the basic technique of scribbling out a
       | rectangle or tree of possibilities and the probability of each.
        
       | omosubi wrote:
       | I feel very difficult exams should be commonplace. Everyone
       | should be held to very high standards. It's surprising how many
       | professions don't do this. For example, I've been to several
       | physical therapists who barely seemed to understand what was
       | wrong with me even after several visits. Each gave me what seemed
       | like the same standard routine that they give everyone with
       | <insert pain type here> problem.
        
         | ZephyrBlu wrote:
         | I think this is a terrible idea. Exams are terrible proxies for
         | ability to do the work. At best they seem like a measure of
         | intelligence, conscientiousness and maybe memory.
         | 
         | What makes you think that a very difficult exam will improve
         | the ability of your PT?
        
           | hogFeast wrote:
           | Investment management is a classic example of this. CFA has a
           | low pass rate (it isn't that hard really, tens of thousands
           | of people do the exam in India and China so that impacts the
           | pass rate), most people do it but, ofc, the really useful
           | knowledge can't be tested...picking a stock isn't like
           | passing a exam. And worse, you get lots of people who pass
           | the exam, acquire false sense of confidence, and then make
           | mistakes (or don't ever move beyond the "parrot" level of
           | intelligence).
           | 
           | I think maths is another one, as conventionally taught. I
           | hated maths at school because it was largely sitting down in
           | a room, doing the same thing over and over again like a
           | computer...quite reasonably, I asked myself whether this was
           | a productive use of my time. As an adult, I have taught
           | myself everything again, it was far more enjoyable and useful
           | because I actually took the time to understand the concepts
           | (and no, none of the stuff I did at school was useful, it was
           | just mindless computation).
           | 
           | I don't necessarily think exams are a bad idea but they don't
           | produce knowledge, experience, or real expertise. They are
           | often misused (as is certification, I knew a guy who worked
           | as a fund manager and was a senior member of the CFA for
           | ethics and standards...he stole from employees regularly).
        
         | halpert wrote:
         | The body doesn't have a diagnostic port or log file. Even top-
         | tier doctors are wrong frequently.
        
         | topkai22 wrote:
         | The over use of occupational licensing has some well documented
         | negative effects, see
         | https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/OccupationalLicensing.h...
         | for some points about it.
         | 
         | However, physical therapists already have an occupational
         | licensing exam. You could argue that it's not hard enough, as
         | it does have a high pass rate for those who have graduated from
         | a PT university program, but then you start drifting into "no
         | true Scotsman" territory.
        
           | omosubi wrote:
           | Yes this is true. I realize my comment had the wrong tenor in
           | that the actual exams matter less than just having rigorous
           | courses. Not everyone should be a doctor or a physical
           | therapist or a software engineer and it's common nowadays to
           | credential so that some institution can make money.
        
           | 908B64B197 wrote:
           | > The over use of occupational licensing has some well
           | documented negative effects
           | 
           | That's because it's done wrong.
        
             | ryan93 wrote:
             | ! we just found the guy who knows how to do it right. What
             | a day for humanity!
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | (include your proposal for improvement to get more positive
             | feedback)
        
         | dhosek wrote:
         | Some 17 years ago, I got my teaching credential.
         | 
         | Two observations:
         | 
         | 1. The test was ridiculously easy. Junior high-level math and
         | reading. And yet teacher candidates still failed it.
         | 
         | 2. For K-12 teaching, the knowledge that was tested was pretty
         | much irrelevant for the job. What matters for more than being
         | able to find the length of the hypotenuse of a right triangle
         | or to comprehend an expository paragraph (which is not to say
         | that these aren't useful skills) is the ability to manage a
         | classroom. Almost none of the teacher prep I had was geared
         | towards that single most important skill (which I,
         | unfortunately, was not so great at) and which is what will make
         | the difference between succeeding and failing in a K-12
         | teaching career.
         | 
         | I think this generalizes to other fields as well. Think about
         | all the tree-traversal BS we've all gone through in a software
         | engineer interview and how little that relates to the actual
         | work that we do and how the hard stuff is much less the
         | programming and more the learning the code base and business.
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | Meanwhile, they often gate the requirements to even take the
         | test. It would be chaos (and bad for the law schools) if
         | someone were able to take the bar without a JD (some states
         | have just as lengthy apprenticeship periods replace that) or
         | otherwise prove professional ability acquired via non
         | traditional means.
        
           | dhosek wrote:
           | My grandfather got his architecture license without a college
           | degree (in the 1920s). He often related riding down to
           | Champagne, IL to take the exam in the rumble seat of a Model
           | T Ford with a couple college grads to take the exam. He
           | passed the exam and they both failed.
           | 
           | I was somewhat surprised watching the Perry Mason series on
           | HBO last year when Perry Mason was sworn to the bar without
           | actually going to any sort of law school. Apparently that was
           | the norm until after World War II.
        
             | redis_mlc wrote:
        
       | riskneutral wrote:
       | This is 100% a submarine PR article [1] from the Society of
       | Actuaries.
       | 
       | [1] http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html
        
       | poteznykrolik wrote:
       | 20 years ago i had such hopes to run into that field but man am i
       | glad something else happened (2008)
        
       | npmisdown wrote:
       | So the answer to the question in the topic is (B) ~0.33 (can't
       | see the answer because of the paywall)?
       | 
       | Doesn't seem to be a particularly tricky question unless I miss
       | something, just basic probability theory calcs.
        
         | dhosek wrote:
         | That was my answer as well: My reasoning: Let _x_ be the
         | probability of purchasing disability coverage, thus the
         | probability of purchasing collision is 2 _x_ from conditions b
         | and c, we know that 2 _x_ [?] _x_ = .15 so we can calculate the
         | probability of neither applying as 1-(2 _x_ + _x_ )+2 _x_ [?]
         | _x_ = .18 + .15 = .33
         | 
         | I can see the trap of forgetting to add 2 _x_ [?] _x_ in the
         | calculation (since we don 't want to double count the case
         | where they purchase both insurances). And choices d and e
         | follow from forgetting to subtract the probability of
         | purchasing either from 1 (and making the same mistake of not
         | removing the double count). I'm curious where the .48
         | distractor comes from. Coming up with good distractors is the
         | secret to making a multiple choice test hard (students tend to
         | think that multiple choice will be easier than a fill in the
         | blank test, but they forget that with free answer exams, they
         | can still get partial credit where in a multiple choice test,
         | they'll lose all credit for a small mistake).
        
           | knodi123 wrote:
           | > with free answer exams, they can still get partial credit
           | 
           | Rarely had a prof that had the patience for that, vs. a
           | simple red X. Not arguing, it's just my anecdote of
           | frustration.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Denvercoder9 wrote:
       | If the sample question is actually representative of the exam,
       | I'm surprised that people that actually study for this fail that
       | often. I haven't had any statistics education since high school,
       | and found it fairly straightforward to solve.
        
         | tfehring wrote:
         | It's an actual exam question from the first exam, but it's one
         | of the easier ones. IIRC the syllabus is something like 40%
         | discrete probability and combinatorics, 40% univariate
         | continuous probability, and 20% multivariate probability. But
         | it's not like WSJ is going to expect its readers to do tabular
         | integration in the margin.
         | 
         | In general that exam is pretty representative of the syllabus
         | of my mid-level undergrad probability theory class. The failure
         | rate is somewhat inflated because students will walk right out
         | of their probability class into the exam thinking they can pass
         | without further studying. It's still harder than a typical
         | undergrad exam, but it's nowhere near the level of the Putnam
         | or whatever.
        
         | dc-programmer wrote:
         | Years ago, I looked at sample questions for the probability
         | exam, which most people take first. To get a passing score you
         | had to be able to quickly recall different probability
         | distributions and also you needed to have a pretty solid grasp
         | of the mechanics of things like double integration. Intro
         | calculus-based mathematical probability classes cover most of
         | the material, but passing the test requires mastery of at least
         | the applied side of math probability.
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | If it took a math professor over 3 years to do it, it sounds
       | tough. What is the reward? I consistently see actuarial science
       | as a top earning degree in certain papers, but there's not much
       | color on whether it's worthwhile. How many openings are there for
       | each person who passes, what are working conditions like?
        
         | pg_bot wrote:
         | I considered becoming an actuary after college (passed first
         | two exams on first try) but decided to become a software
         | engineer instead. You should expect to make six figures with a
         | near guarantee of employment for your entire career. The job
         | conditions are fairly standard for a white collar worker, but
         | you won't have crazy working hours like a lawyer or a banker.
         | 
         | If you could take the tests in parallel the process would be a
         | lot quicker, but the tests are sequential (you typically need
         | to take 7 to be fully certified) and are only offered every 3-6
         | months. I didn't think the first two exams were particularly
         | difficult, but did prep for about a month for each beforehand.
         | I would argue that time management was more important since you
         | had only a few questions but were on a strict clock. So if you
         | actually wanted to pass the test it was more important to find
         | shortcut methods to get to the correct answer quickly.
        
         | throwawaygh wrote:
         | _> How many openings are there for each person who passes_
         | 
         | Think of the SoA as a union, if that helps.
         | 
         |  _> what are working conditions like?_
         | 
         | It's a boring office job.
         | 
         | The job is what it is. A safe and well-paid job that guarantees
         | you'll never be a pauper or a prince. Not dissimilar from
         | university teaching.
        
       | not-my-account wrote:
       | Is the answer to the question at the top 0.33?
       | 
       | let pc = purchased_collision, pd = purchased_disability
       | 
       | we have:
       | 
       | 2 * P(pc) = P(pd) P(pc & pd) = 0.15
       | 
       | so
       | 
       | P(pc) * P(pd) = 0.15 2 P(pc)^2 = 0.15 --> P(pc) = 0.274, P(pd) =
       | 0.548
       | 
       | So the probability of neither pc nor pd is
       | 
       | !P(pc | pd) = 1 - P(pc) - P(pd) + P(pc & pd) = 0.328 ~= 0.33?
       | 
       | The addition of P(pc & pd) was to take account of the double
       | counting of pc and pd.
       | 
       | Please let me know if I've made a mistake!
        
         | ffwacom wrote:
         | I got the same. When do we start as actuaries?
        
         | ZephyrP wrote:
         | I got the same result as you, but in my mind the expression _"
         | twice as likely to purchase"_ could just as easily have meant
         | P(C) = 2 * P(D) / 1 + P(D) (yielding 0.35824) rather than 2 *
         | P(C) (yielding 0.32841).
        
         | ummonk wrote:
         | It is yes.
         | 
         | Definitely need a calculator to be able to do sqrt(0.075) and
         | calculate the result.
         | 
         | Though I was able to figure it out in my head without a
         | calculator by eliminating choice A and choice C (I tried pd=0.3
         | and pd=0.2 to prove the answer had to be >0.28 and <0.48).
        
           | not-my-account wrote:
           | Ah clever!
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | d136o wrote:
       | In this [1] interview by Barry Ritholtz, Markel CEO essentially
       | told the origin story of an insurance giant. Basically a family
       | member was a lawmaker, passed a law that drivers of the newly
       | invented cars (maybe horse buggies?) must be insured. They
       | simultaneously started a company that sold insurance. Over time
       | they learned to make money from investing their customers
       | capital.
       | 
       | It blew my mind at how candid he was about the fact that his
       | business exists due to regulatory mandates. Are there insurance
       | products that people are really satisfied with and trust will pay
       | out in case of event X? I feel like I'm self insuring when it
       | comes to car and healthcare at least. Title insurance when buying
       | a house also seemed like a total "legally required" joke.
       | 
       | [1] https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/transcript-thomas-gayner/
        
         | romwell wrote:
         | Side story about how satisfied people can be with the mandated
         | insurance.
         | 
         | I was on coast-to-coast road trip when I got into an accident
         | in TX. Someone was trying to pass me on the left in a turning
         | lane, veered into the incoming lane, and then hit my vehicle's
         | front wheels from the back.
         | 
         | The police ticketed the other driver, and told me that
         | insurance will surely take care of that on my side. "Wow, it's
         | worse than we thought", they said, looking at the footage from
         | the security camera. There were eyewitnesses too.
         | 
         | Now, this was a $6K car (used Fiat 500) that I got specifically
         | for the road trip, intending to resell it in the future. I
         | didn't get comprehensive coverage for it, figuring that if I
         | damage it, welp, it's on me; and if someone else does -- that's
         | why we have mandated liability insurance, right?
         | 
         | ...I got zero ($0.00, zlich, nada) from the other driver's
         | liability insurance. They informed me that their expertise
         | concluded that the accident was my fault, and, by law, _they
         | don 't have to abide by the police report_.
         | 
         | That's to say, the only way to get any money from them is to
         | sue them, in TX. Figuring that the car is registered in
         | California, and the damage was about $3K, they decided to not
         | pay me anything at all.
         | 
         | Because they can.
         | 
         | Now, if I had comprehensive coverage, they'd be facing my
         | insurance company -- because one of those has to pay up. But
         | they're facing me, so I'm welcome to sue or get shafted (with a
         | nice side of gaslighting from the insurance agent, who was very
         | convincing about how I should trust their assessment).
         | 
         | The whole thing is a scam.
        
           | gizmo686 wrote:
           | Whats the scam? The insurance company was hired to provide
           | insurance for the other driver. By all accounts they did so.
           | If the other driver had no insurance, your options would have
           | been the same: hope they pay out of good will, or sue them.
           | 
           | The public policy motivation for liability insurance is to
           | protect the lawsuit route. If you sue an uninsured driver and
           | win, you might not be able to collect (getting blood from a
           | stone). But if they have liability insurance you can collect
           | on a judgement.
           | 
           | You choose to drive with only liabilty insurance, and are
           | upset that insurance didn't cover an accident when you had no
           | liability.
        
           | extr wrote:
           | It sounds like you were just cheap, didn't want to purchase
           | comprehensive coverage, then that came back to bite you. This
           | sucks, but is hardly a scam. Even worse, it sounds like you
           | even understood what comprehensive coverage does (cover 1st
           | party physical damage regardless of situation), and
           | consciously chose not to buy it, assuming that anything that
           | would possibly happen to the vehicle would be someone else's
           | fault. Terrible assumption on a cross country road trip. You
           | would have been equally fucked if you hit a deer, spun out in
           | a rain storm and hit a median, popped a tire and ran into a
           | ditch, etc.
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | I'm satisfied. I've never had any trouble getting either auto
         | or health insurance to pay out.
         | 
         | As for title insurance, there's no way I'd buy a house for cash
         | without title insurance to make sure I'll actually own it, and
         | I don't blame the banks for insisting on the same.
        
         | throwawaygh wrote:
         | _> It blew my mind at how candid he was about the fact that his
         | business exists due to regulatory mandates._
         | 
         | This is extraordinarily well understood in the insurance
         | industry. They don't think of it as odd or a dirty secret, at
         | all.
         | 
         | It's more surprising that he was so open about the naked
         | corruption/nepotism in the origin story. Apparently there's a
         | sector of society for whom that is also normal and acceptable.
         | 
         |  _> I feel like I'm self insuring when it comes to car and
         | healthcare at least._
         | 
         | This is not at all the case for car insurance! You may be self-
         | insuring the cost of your car, but are you also self-insuring
         | against a lawsuit for damage to the other guy's car?
         | 
         | It's definitely more true than not for healthcare, though.
         | Health insurance is a pretty terrible product.
        
           | duckmysick wrote:
           | > Health insurance is a pretty terrible product.
           | 
           | What's the alternative?
        
           | NikolaNovak wrote:
           | Agreed; but I don't see it as _necessarily_ nefarious (only
           | _probably_ nefarious:)
           | 
           | In a lot of places, most people only wear seatbelt, wear a
           | helmet, don't drink and drive, etc due to laws/regulations
           | (and in others, they'll strongly actively fight these
           | initiatives). We are really _really REALLY_ bad, on average,
           | assessing personal risks. Regulation, in part at least, is us
           | as a society taking look at overall percentages and saying
           | "well let's not do _that_ ".
           | 
           | There's a likely apocryphal story about sysadmin who was
           | fired after event he estimated had less than 10% chance of
           | happening, happened. Most of us assume that <50% means it
           | won't happen, >50% means it will happen. With most events
           | that insurance covers, most of us are _aaaaawful_ at
           | understanding it can ever happen to us... and we most
           | definitely over-estimate the gracefulness, self-awareness and
           | ownership we 'll exhibit if it _does_ help us.
        
         | sheriffofpaddys wrote:
        
         | tfehring wrote:
         | Disclosure: used to be an actuary at an insurance company. I
         | think the general rule is that your insurance will reliably
         | cover the things that it explicitly says it covers, but that
         | category may be narrower than you think, so you should read the
         | policy and figure out what your policy does and does not cover.
         | 
         | For example, if you go to a doctor who's not in your health
         | insurer's network, you're probably not covered. In some states,
         | you can buy a "full coverage" (liability + comprehensive +
         | collision) policy with a liability limit of $10k, so if you hit
         | someone with your car and they have more than $10k in medical
         | bills they can sue you for the balance. Your provider network
         | and liability limit will both be spelled out explicitly in your
         | policy documents, and neither concept is really that
         | complicated, but if you don't know about them you could be in
         | for a nasty surprise.
         | 
         | Of course, all of that creates a giant pain in the ass for
         | consumers, and that begs the question, why doesn't anyone just
         | make an insurance policy that covers _everything the
         | policyholder thinks is covered_? And the answer is that nobody
         | would buy it! It would be more expensive (usually _much_ more
         | expensive) than its competitors, and people are generally very
         | price-sensitive in their insurance purchases, and no one would
         | read the fine print to see what they 're actually getting for
         | their money.
         | 
         | P.S. The rabbit hole of stupid insurance regulation runs deep.
         | Texas county mutuals are a fun example. Captive reinsurers are
         | another.
        
         | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
         | While corruption may have been the source of this particular
         | business, the fact that insurance is required by law is a good
         | thing. The counterfactual involves a bunch of uninsured
         | judgement proof drivers clogging the road and ruining everyone
         | else's day/life. The problem is already bad enough now when it
         | is illegal to do.
        
           | romwell wrote:
           | Hot take: if it's something that's universally a good thing
           | that should be _required_ of every driver, it should be
           | provided by the state and paid for with taxes  / annual
           | registration fees.
           | 
           | Otherwise, it's just an income-generating scheme for private
           | parties.
           | 
           | Oh, and fun fact: the liability insurance isn't required to
           | pay up anything unless the covered driver _loses in court_.
           | They don 't have to follow that the police report says
           | regarding whose fault it is.
           | 
           | How do I know? Got told that after getting into an accident
           | on a road trip. So much for a good thing.
        
             | wbl wrote:
             | Depends on the state. Some have no fault allocation systems
             | to avoid these lawsuits.
        
         | gurchik wrote:
         | > Are there insurance products that people are really satisfied
         | with and trust will pay out in case of event X?
         | 
         | I've always been happy with renter's insurance and have paid it
         | since my first apartment in college. I pay $100/yr for a 50k
         | limit policy. Unlike car insurance I am not required to have
         | this, but I've always considered it to be worth it.
         | 
         | I also pay for pet insurance. Again, not required to have it
         | but when I considered cancelling and self-insuring I filed a
         | claim and was immediately paid out hassle free. That convinced
         | me to keep it.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.is/0Eaav
        
       | stbtrax wrote:
       | From experience from a few close friends: Actuarial science is
       | always in the lists of top jobs but it's a terrible career. It's
       | quite limiting and doesn't pay particularly well. The companies
       | are all old and stagnant and the amount of time put in to
       | studying for exams is taxing. It'd be much better ROI to put that
       | time into studying for sw-eng roles. That is, unless you're
       | particularly interested in memorizing math formulas for insurance
       | calculations
        
         | riskneutral wrote:
         | > unless you're particularly interested in memorizing math
         | formulas for insurance calculations
         | 
         | Note that the formulas in question are the opposite of
         | interesting formulas. They're just made-up regulatory rules
         | about how much capital an insurance company has to hold in
         | order to sell insurance. Everyone agrees that some amount of
         | capital needs to be held. Everyone, except maybe some of the
         | "actuarial scientists" themselves, understands that this isn't
         | a scientific endeavor like discovering the laws of General
         | Relativity, it is an arbitrary and convoluted "rule of thumb"
         | type of formula, but it's better than nothing because you
         | really do need to force insurance companies to hold some
         | minimum capital and you need some kind of standard formula to
         | calculate that capital in order for there to be a level playing
         | field between insurance companies.
         | 
         | I think actuarial science undergrad students choose that career
         | because it is one of the safest choices for someone who is good
         | at math but has no interest in science or technology. They are
         | allured by the promise of steady employment and a $100,000
         | salary, and vague visions of being a high paid "math AND
         | business expert" for a big insurance company where they will
         | get to make decisions involving large sums of money with
         | scientific precision using advanced mathematical concepts.
         | 
         | By the time your young actuary has started working, they are
         | already too deep in to be able to change careers. They made the
         | "safe" choice, now they have to live with it. At first
         | everything seems new and exciting. But 10 years into it, they
         | have settled down roots and family somewhere in the middle of
         | Iowa (because that's where the insurance company is located),
         | knee deep into spreadsheets calculating "Solvency II" formulas
         | for "quarter end." They don't get to make any business
         | decisions, they barely understand how their employers' business
         | even really works, and their career has plateaued at a mediocre
         | level despite having spent 10 years writing all of the
         | available actuarial exams. Unfortunately, that is the only
         | employer of actuaries in town, so they are completely marooned.
         | They spend their free time learning the latest tips and tricks
         | about Excel VBA programming, watching the movie "About Schmidt"
         | repeatedly, and mistakenly envying their peers who work in
         | banking instead of insurance
        
           | Cogito wrote:
           | A small note, but actuaries do a lot more than capital
           | reserving, and even then the regulatory aspect (while
           | important) is not the only consideration.
           | 
           | I am not an actuary, but I have done a lot of actuarial work
           | in a small insurance company, and the work included
           | 
           | - pricing (are we under of over charging for this product?)
           | 
           | - reinsurance (analysis so we can get a good price, as well
           | as making sure what we sell remains within our reinsurance
           | coverage)
           | 
           | - portfolio monitoring (performance/profitability/etc)
           | 
           | - risk aggregation (do we have too much exposure to a single
           | risk or type of risk)
           | 
           | - loss forecasting (primarily for reserving, but also for a
           | 'true' indication of performance, as claims experience is
           | necessarily very laggy)
           | 
           | - product development (for example, what does a travel
           | insurance product look like in a COVID world? What can we
           | reasonably offer and how do we assess the
           | pricing/reinsurance/risk appetite)
           | 
           | Moreover, none of these tasks required nor employed any
           | memorised formulas. You either use a model someone else
           | built, or build one yourself, and then analyse and test as
           | much data as you can so that you can provide good advice.
           | Importantly you have to be able to show _exactly_ how you
           | produced that advice, and be ready to justify every single
           | choice you made while doing so. A large part of the actuarial
           | training seems to be ways of working and thinking that enable
           | this (at least this is my impression from the actuaries I
           | work with).
           | 
           | There are actuaries who just calculate '"Solvency II"
           | formulas for "quarter end"', but there are also actuaries
           | developing advanced risk models for catastrophic weather
           | events using large data sets and machine learning, or
           | shutting down products because the market has shifted and
           | it's no longer viable. In every insurance company I've worked
           | at, actuaries are some of the most influential and respected
           | people there, and do very interesting work (along with some
           | really mind-numbing work!).
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | extr wrote:
             | This is a fantastic summary of everything actuarial science
             | can touch on. I started my career as a junior actuary at a
             | small insurance startup and was fortunate to be able to
             | meaningfully contribute to many of these areas because we
             | didn't have many senior actuaries on staff. It was a lot of
             | fun as a 23-24 year old to be involved in making such
             | important strategic decision making, it made me realize
             | that insurance companies are really fascinating financial
             | objects.
             | 
             | There are definitely downsides as many are mentioning. As
             | you specialize your job does get more narrow and "boring"
             | (unless you climb the management ladder). Many major
             | insurance companies are not headquartered in interesting or
             | fun places to live. At some point I realized that life was
             | not for me, and transitioned my skillset to data
             | science/machine learning to give myself a more varied
             | career.
             | 
             | But there are absolutely interesting problems to be solved
             | in the insurance space, particularly for people with strong
             | communication/business skills in addition to the
             | wherewithal needed to deal with the actual nuts and bolts
             | of the math and analysis.
        
           | francisofascii wrote:
           | Since the job is all about helping insurance companies manage
           | risk, someone who makes "safe" choices would be a good fit.
        
           | tschwimmer wrote:
           | Are you okay there? It got a little specific at the end.
        
             | riskneutral wrote:
             | Don't worry, I'm not an actuary.
        
         | smegsicle wrote:
         | > put that time into studying for sw-eng
         | 
         | why not both? an environment of stagnant companies offering
         | jobs involving difficult calculations sounds ripe for
         | disruption- is it being strangled by regulation or something?
        
           | riskneutral wrote:
           | > why not both? an environment of stagnant companies offering
           | jobs involving difficult calculations sounds ripe for
           | disruption- is it being strangled by regulation or something?
           | 
           | Those jobs only exist _because_ of regulation. The regulation
           | dictates that the insurance companies must do those
           | calculations and that the calculations must be done by a
           | specially ordained priesthood of actuaries who have passed a
           | bunch of random math and finance exams. That priesthood does
           | not want technological disruption, they like their
           | spreadsheets just fine, thank you. In recent years the
           | executives at the insurance companies went through a fad
           | where they decided they wanted to try out this whole
           | "disruption" and "innovation" thing, so they created various
           | kinds of "innovation" departments. Typically, when a company
           | does that, after a few years "innovation" becomes a four
           | letter word and they never talk about it again. In order to
           | climb the corporate ladder as an actuary, you have to focus
           | on the politics surrounding you and not on the terrible
           | technology surrounding you.
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | I'm not an actuary, but worked earlier in my career for a
             | "chief innovation officer". Being young and dumb I feel for
             | it, and in truth we had an awesome team that did some
             | really cool stuff with lasting value.
             | 
             | But once we had a few wins, the chief innovator guy got
             | promoted away, and he was the guy with political power. The
             | various fiefdoms goobled up the innovation budget like
             | thanksgiving turkey. The IT idiots "innovated" by buying
             | high capacity toner. The data center people bought new air
             | conditioners.
        
         | tfehring wrote:
         | I left the actuarial field for basically the reasons you
         | describe, but the characterization still strikes me as somewhat
         | unfair. Actuaries reliably make significantly above the median
         | US income right out of undergrad, and reliably double that
         | income within a decade, working 40 hours a week, without
         | needing to go to a target school or get an advanced degree.
         | That alone makes it a good career by most objective standards.
         | 
         | Software engineering is sort of a trump card in that it looks
         | better than basically any other career on paper, but _everyone_
         | can 't be a software engineer. And while the actuarial field
         | draws from a similar talent pool as software engineering, I
         | think most people who enjoy one wouldn't enjoy the other - the
         | former is much more of a business-y profession. I personally
         | find the work I do as a SWE way less interesting than the work
         | I did as an actuary, even though I'm not big on memorizing
         | formulas.
        
           | DwnVoteHoneyPot wrote:
           | A survey I saw said actuaries have high job satisfaction. I
           | had actuary and math colleagues in the risk dept (i was in
           | diff group) and they loved running risk sims, programming,
           | data visualization. In addition to high salary per hour, low
           | stress, no bro-grammer environment or ageism, or shiny new
           | web framework.
        
           | yukinon wrote:
           | This could be outdated information that I have, but don't
           | actuaries constantly need to study for their exams/certs?
           | Does that fall outside of the 40 hour/week range, or is that
           | done on work time?
        
             | tfehring wrote:
             | The exam process probably takes something like 2000-3000
             | hours total, with roughly half done on company time. Exam
             | season is really stressful and can go significantly above
             | 40 hours/week between work and study time, but it doesn't
             | add up to a ton of time when you amortize it over a whole
             | career.
             | 
             | There's also a career-long continuing education requirement
             | that typically boils down to 15 hours/year of seminars or
             | webcasts, all done on company time.
        
             | decafninja wrote:
             | You could argue that a lot of SWEs also have to constantly
             | study leetcode on their own, outside of working hours.
             | Especially if you are targeting many of the high paying
             | companies that would pay substantially more than an
             | actuary.
             | 
             | Even if you are fortunate not to have to do leetcode (i.e.
             | frontend engineer interviews seem to diverge from leetcode
             | problems nowadays), you still have to extracurricularly
             | grind on coding in ways that you would typically not
             | encounter during your normal work.
        
           | nabla9 wrote:
           | I wonder how the difference looks like if you think over the
           | whole career.
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | For better or worse, HN posters think the good times will be
           | rolling forever.
        
           | lumost wrote:
           | I suspect that SWE is becoming a bi-modal field. We often
           | talk about SWE salaries pushing mid-> high six figures, but
           | this is only true for experienced professionals working in
           | very successful companies benefiting from large stock
           | appreciations.
           | 
           | If the stock market was falling/flat for a few years SWE comp
           | would not be as high. By definition, most SWEs will not work
           | at Netflix. The current situation of stable, well paying, and
           | public tech companies is unlikely to persist indefinitely.
        
             | tfehring wrote:
             | Yeah, that's a factor too. The actuaries had way better
             | salary trajectories than the programmers we worked with
             | when I was at an insurance company in the Midwest.
        
             | decafninja wrote:
             | I suspect the average US "Senior SWE" is lucky to retire
             | after decades of work having broken $200,000 compensation.
             | 
             | For every 20-30-40something FAANG engineer making
             | $300-500k+, there are legions upon legions of SWEs working
             | at IT-as-a-cost-center non-tech companies making a fraction
             | of that amount.
        
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