[HN Gopher] "Play-to-Earn" and Bullshit Jobs
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       "Play-to-Earn" and Bullshit Jobs
        
       Author : paulgb
       Score  : 390 points
       Date   : 2021-12-28 19:16 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (paulbutler.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (paulbutler.org)
        
       | soheil wrote:
       | > Games that maximize property rights (as Axie Infinity wisely
       | hasn't) are bound to be overrun with cheaters and bots, which in
       | turn will just bring down the value of in-game assets anyway.
       | 
       | This may happen temporarily, but a sufficiently well tested and
       | bullet proof enough game should able to combat that.
       | 
       | This is the same argument people made before BTC: it's just a
       | matter of time before any decentralized currency would get hacked
       | therefore we cannot have a decentralized currency.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Axie Infinity spokesperson: "It is a little bit dependent on
       | capital inflows."
       | 
       | Er, yes. All those players are paying about $1000 to get into the
       | game and then grinding away to get Smooth Love Potion tokens.
       | This is the SLP price graph.[1] Down 92% since the peak. A lot of
       | suckers lost big. Many of them poor people in the Philippines,
       | where Axie is big.
       | 
       | Axie is frantically trying to obfuscate this with a second token,
       | PR, claims of new revenue sources, etc. It's not working. In the
       | end, it's a classic Ponzi scheme, and it collapsed after only a
       | few months.
       | 
       | [1] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
        
         | lalaland1125 wrote:
         | This is a key thing that a lot of people are missing: most (if
         | not all) of the top PlayToEarn games are literally just
         | disguised ponzi schemes.
         | 
         | The only reason why their tokens have value is that you need
         | those tokens to earn more tokens.
        
         | stingrae wrote:
         | This. Axie Infinity only had traction, because the earned coin
         | had speculative value. The traction was from people "playing-
         | to-earn" as a job. I doubt that there are that many people
         | playing for the fun of it. When the token loses value, there
         | isn't a reason to continue playing.
        
       | skinnyasianboi wrote:
       | I think we all agree that Axie is not a fun game. There are other
       | games with millions of users that are actually fun and play to
       | earn.
        
       | netcan wrote:
       | As I was reading Graeber, it's useful to imagine useless job
       | economies of the past. Is a medieval abbey "useless?" Clergy?
       | Servants to the clergy? How about courtiers? Courtiers' dress
       | makers?
       | 
       | These classes represented a small part of most societies in the
       | past, though not always _that_ small. In any case, it 's obvious
       | that whatever needs these jobs serve are cultural. Don't
       | underestimate culture. Money is a cultural construct. Power.
       | Politics. Macroeconomics. Etc.
       | 
       | That's what's going on here.
        
         | Osmose wrote:
         | What's the cultural value provided by sitting on Axie and
         | grinding for hours?
        
           | netcan wrote:
           | I'm not sure "value" is the correct question. Value depends
           | on... values, I guess.
           | 
           | In any case, I suspect Graeber would have advised asking
           | them. The grinders in manilla. The currency buyers, traders,
           | etc. Cultural reasons are hard to extract from their cultural
           | context without resorting to essentialism.
           | 
           | There are differences between a game where money comes from
           | grinding, even if 3rd party and outsourced, and a pay-to-play
           | currency. I suspect the people participating in that economy
           | have a narrative, and that it makes some sort of internal
           | sense. That's culture.
        
             | me_again wrote:
             | There are some comments from participants here: https://www
             | .reddit.com/r/AxieInfinity/comments/qfe7fo/would_...
        
           | DarylZero wrote:
           | It's the same cultural value provided by a slot machine.
           | 
           | A way to hack someone else's brain and turn them into a slave
           | zombie.
           | 
           | But I guess a lot of "real" culture is basically trying to do
           | something similar: religions, corporate cults, schools, etc.
           | Those are maybe only superficially less grotesque.
        
         | zzbzq wrote:
         | In the book version of his essay, one of the things he talks
         | about is how most of the things people would write to him about
         | being "bullshit jobs" were not his original definition of
         | bullshit jobs.
         | 
         | He gives the example of how a lot of people wrote to him about
         | how useless hairdressers were, since people could just style
         | their own hair. But, to Graeber, these are very much real jobs,
         | because it's easy to see what was exchanged for payment (hair
         | service.) Whether it was worth the money is a different
         | question.
         | 
         | Clergy, in the middle ages, wouldn't be so much a bullshit job,
         | but might be a privileged caste. The servants of the clergy,
         | according to Graeber, are not bullshit jobs, because like the
         | hairdresser, they are doing something for someone (presumably.)
         | Doing laundry or bringing tea or whatever we are imagining they
         | are serving as servants.
         | 
         | I believe in the book, he resigns to include the concept of
         | "different types" of bullshit jobs, since most people seem to
         | be unable to stick to his original definition.
         | 
         | The canonical bullshit job to Graeber would be someone in a
         | large administrative bureaucracy. This is tied, in his original
         | essay, to examining the statistics of increase in jobs in
         | different sectors, cross-referenced with data about the growth
         | in the productivity of a single worker. He shows that while
         | manufacturing and service jobs have remained steady,
         | "administrative" jobs have increased in proportion with
         | productivity, which he says demonstrates the "bullshit job" as
         | purely a way of having more administrators sitting around in
         | meetings while the same number of people do actual stuff.
        
           | netcan wrote:
           | So... I think a lot of people (not you) missed the fact that
           | graeber writes from what I think is a traditional
           | anthropological perspective, as opposed to other social
           | philosophy traditions.
           | 
           | Bullshit jobs described as such by the worker was a very big
           | part of his definition. I think the definition has to drift,
           | since an anthropologist won't typically want to impose a
           | typology.
           | 
           | In any case, if medieval monks themselves considered monkery
           | bullshit... there are snug places in Graebers' typology for
           | them. In fact, I believe an average monastery could man every
           | type of bullshit job category. It would depend on whether or
           | not they themselves believe in the monastic institutions...
           | and I would not necessarily assume that they did.
        
         | sktrdie wrote:
         | I think the point of Graeber (RIP btw) was to highlight that
         | certain jobs (the bullshit ones) are self-fulfilling promises;
         | specifically jobs "that only exist because everyone else is
         | spending so much of their time working in all the other ones."
         | [1]
         | 
         | What's going on here is people doing work knowing it's actual
         | bullshit. Just like grinding in the game. There are entire
         | sweeps of the economy dedicated to this kind of work and it's a
         | huge waste.
         | 
         | 1. https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/
        
         | xg15 wrote:
         | By what definition would you consider a medieval abbey useless?
         | I can't follow you.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | seibelj wrote:
       | I disagree entirely with the thesis of "bullshit jobs". Unless
       | it's a government job or mandated by regulations, someone is
       | paying for a task to be done voluntarily. Therefore it isn't
       | bullshit to the payer, even if it might seem like bullshit to the
       | worker. I have never stumbled on a single job that wasn't
       | government-required labor that had no purpose whatsoever, and
       | furthermore the laborer wasn't able to quit.
        
         | DarylZero wrote:
         | I found his bullshit jobs article to be terrible and
         | unconvincing, and many of the things he said about jobs just
         | inaccurate.
         | 
         | But I think your objection is not very strong and his thesis
         | can be rescued from it.
         | 
         | > it isn't bullshit to the payer, even if it might seem like
         | bullshit to the worker
         | 
         | I think a lot of jobs really are "bullshit jobs," not because
         | they have no value to the payer, but because they have negative
         | value to the economy overall.
         | 
         | For an extreme example, some people are willing to pay to have
         | witnesses murdered so that they can continue committing crimes
         | without legal repercussions.
         | 
         | Or, some people are doing jobs that are purely for positional
         | advantage and that are even "cancelled out" by other people in
         | other companies doing another job. Advertisers seeking to take
         | over market share from competing companies.
         | 
         | Or, some extractive industries may be more beneficially halted
         | because of negative externalities; but those who benefit from
         | the extraction will still hire people.
        
         | withinboredom wrote:
         | Sure you can quit. But often these "bs jobs" are a form of
         | scope creep so you face the thought that eventually, it may
         | change.
        
           | seibelj wrote:
           | Can you provide an example of a bullshit job?
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | The wikipedia article has examples from David Graeber
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs
        
               | sam_lowry_ wrote:
               | Here is the original publication of the essay:
               | https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/
               | 
               | I have anecdotal evidence that it took financial circles
               | by storm. One very well known CEO in the financial
               | industry even wrote a book inspired by David Graeber a
               | few years later.
        
               | cochne wrote:
               | I'm not totally convinced after looking at that. "duct
               | tapers, who temporarily fix problems that could be fixed
               | permanently, e.g., programmers repairing bloated code,
               | airline desk staff who calm passengers whose bags do not
               | arrive;"
               | 
               | Is duct taping code never optimal?
        
               | jakear wrote:
               | Some examples: receptionists, administrative assistances,
               | quality control officers, compliance officers, and
               | maintainers of bloated legacy software systems.
               | 
               | I disagree that any of these jobs are "bullshit". I think
               | the most bullshit of all the jobs on that page is that
               | author's, who wastes society's time listening to him
               | complain about things he has no experience with.
        
             | xracy wrote:
             | Did you read the article?
        
               | seibelj wrote:
               | Yes! However, as stated in the article, earning currency
               | or items in videogames and reselling them have been
               | around since the earliest days of online gaming. Plus
               | these people are entrepreneurs working for themselves.
               | I'm really not getting the link.
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | "In Bullshit Jobs: A Theory, David Graeber makes the case
               | that a sizable chunk of the labour economy is essentially
               | people performing useless work."
               | 
               | I would treat a bullshit job as any job/living that
               | requires you to do useless work. How do you define
               | "useless work"?
        
               | all2well wrote:
               | Something like Axie Infinity just seems _incredibly_
               | cynical. I sometimes joke that stuff like professional
               | sports are just financial instruments, which only
               | incidentally involve a ball of some sort. Play-to-earn
               | and many crypto schemes seem to self-consciously be
               | minimal veils to rope in people who otherwise wouldn't
               | care about financial products.
        
               | ViViDboarder wrote:
               | Because it doesn't provide any value. The game developers
               | created an artificial demand by making a particular
               | aspect of the game so unenjoyable that some people would
               | pay others to do it. They could, instead, just offer
               | people the better experience uniformly and deliver more
               | value to their users.
               | 
               | In this way, the demand and output is entirely
               | artificial.
               | 
               | The author here describes the main difference this new
               | model and older games where similar economies developed
               | is that this is considered a primary feature of the game
               | and people are entering it for the purpose of grinding
               | for cash. I remember many of the other games described
               | such as RuneScape, Second Life, WoW, etc. where people
               | sold in game currency or profiles, but they weren't
               | advertised as economic opportunities, but as games you
               | play for entertainment. VCs weren't investing in them for
               | this purpose either.
        
         | originalvichy wrote:
         | Read excerpts of his book or his essays on the topic. You might
         | be suprised.
        
           | seibelj wrote:
           | I read his writing, and I also read his Debt book and found
           | it unimpressive and unconvincing.
        
             | originalvichy wrote:
             | If you read his book from cover to cover and found nothing
             | that you would count even close to a bullshit job then
             | alright I guess. You probably wouldn't get hired to
             | optimize resource usage and cut down redundancies in a
             | private enterprise anytime soon.
        
           | moneywoes wrote:
           | For example?
        
           | Aunche wrote:
           | I've read his essays, but not his books. Graeber does what
           | every popular nonfiction writer does. He starts with a
           | provocative conclusion, and cherrypicks data to support it.
           | _Bullshit Jobs_ is particularly bad in this aspect.
           | 
           | https://www.economist.com/business/2021/06/05/why-the-
           | bullsh...
        
             | sam_lowry_ wrote:
             | You are linking to a critique. Here is the original essay:
             | https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/
        
         | beaconstudios wrote:
         | So if I paid you a salary to dig a hole and fill it up again,
         | ad infinitum, that job would have inherent value just because
         | I'm paying you to do it?
         | 
         | If so, welcome aboard.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | MattGaiser wrote:
           | My problem with the bullshit jobs thesis is the "inherent
           | value." There are plenty of jobs that have little societal
           | value, but provide plenty of value to the person employing
           | the person.
           | 
           | For example, plenty of jurisdictions give large tax breaks to
           | farms, so it is reasonably common for developers holding land
           | to turn their land into a "farm." One fellow I heard of put 6
           | cows on a plot of development land and paid someone to drop
           | hay off for the cows as the land had next to no grass, as it
           | was under development.
           | 
           | No real value is being generated from the cows. The output of
           | 6 poorly fed and housed beef cows is well under the money
           | paid to the cow carer and for the hay and for the damage
           | caused by the cows to the neighbourhood when they escaped.
           | 
           | But the developer saved 80K a year in various property tax
           | after all expenses were considered.
        
             | beaconstudios wrote:
             | Yeah that's bullshit though - it's a warped incentive
             | caused by social systems. In a healthy social system, these
             | incentives to make money doing pointless bullshit should be
             | minimised. David Graeber is an anarchist, and the whole
             | bullshit jobs concept is a criticism of capitalism.
        
           | seibelj wrote:
           | What company is paying to do this?
        
             | beaconstudios wrote:
             | I'll pay you to do it. I'll incorporate a company and then
             | pay you through that if it feels more legit that way.
        
               | pietrovismara wrote:
               | I'm more than willing to pay tickets to watch that guy
               | dig a hole perpetually and learn what a bullshit job is.
               | Let's do it.
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | Graveyards.
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | Which have you visited that dig and fill the same hole
               | over and over again?
        
           | smugglerFlynn wrote:
           | Just for the record, some of the examples Graeber uses
           | include airline desk staff who calm passengers whose bags do
           | not arrive, middle management, and corporate compliance
           | officers.
           | 
           | You can call these jobs "bullshit" if you rely on an
           | oversimplified version of the world where perfect airlines,
           | perfect employees, and automatically enforced laws exist.
           | Unfortunately, that's also the exact view I often see in
           | tech, where people tend to devalue work of others because its
           | value does not seem to be self-explanatory in the first 60
           | seconds they spend on analysis of the situation.
           | 
           | In real life your lost baggage experience would suck without
           | the person behind the airline desk, you org won't be able to
           | scale without middle management, and your business would
           | suffer budget cuts due to legal fines because the only proper
           | way to stay legally compliant today is (surprise!) _to hire a
           | compliance officer_.
           | 
           | Good luck inventing some imaginary perfect-world systems
           | where those issues do not exist and do not require extra
           | staff you label as "bullshit". Any kind of system which is
           | designed and managed by people _will have flaws_ and will
           | require extra jobs handling these flaws. These jobs are not
           | bullshit, they are valuable because they allow the system to
           | exist and stay efficient.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > Just for the record, some of the examples Graeber uses
             | include airline desk staff who calm passengers whose bags
             | do not arrive, middle management, and corporate compliance
             | officers.
             | 
             | > You can call these jobs "bullshit" if you rely on an
             | oversimplified version of the world where perfect airlines,
             | perfect employees, and automatically enforced laws exist.
             | 
             | You can also do so if, say, you are an anarchist who views
             | capitalism as a system of exploitation and employment in
             | wage labor as a modern form of slavery, which rather
             | invalidates the idea of, rather than assuming the existence
             | of, perfect airlines, perfect employees, or perfectly
             | enforced (corporate) law.
             | 
             | I mention this because...well, you might want to read more
             | of Graeber's work (or even just more of _Bullshit Jobs_ )
             | to understand why.
        
             | beaconstudios wrote:
             | David Graeber is an anarchist, his criticism of bullshit
             | jobs is about sustaining the centralisation of power, not
             | techbro idealism.
             | 
             | There is no reason outside of power dynamics why airline
             | desk staff need to exist to comfort disgruntled passengers,
             | because the existence of disgruntled passengers who need to
             | be shooed off is a consequence of the airline industry.
        
               | stale2002 wrote:
               | > is a consequence of the airline industry
               | 
               | So then yes you are assuming that anarchism can wave a
               | magic wand and make it so airlines never lose people's
               | bags, or that it won't ever create any extra work to
               | track down those bags.
        
               | beaconstudios wrote:
               | No, but that airlines hire essentially customer service
               | reps to face the brunt of people's anger while the
               | company changes nothing to prevent the problems is a
               | classic corporate strategy. They exploit customers and
               | neglect their responsibility and then hire some poor mug
               | to get shouted at.
               | 
               | I don't know if that's David Graeber's specific criticism
               | but it is mine.
        
               | sam_lowry_ wrote:
               | Don't assume vested interest, like techbros do. Graeber
               | was an anthropologist, and the book builds on his work
               | more than on his views.
        
               | beaconstudios wrote:
               | I don't doubt that, but being an anarchist doesn't mean
               | you can't criticise authority from an objective position.
               | If anything, critiquing authority and power might lead
               | you to both write this book, and take an anarchist
               | position.
        
       | orasis wrote:
       | Play-to-Earn with real world earnings will never be sustainable
       | given the state of the art in reinforcement learning.
       | 
       | The RL game playing agent essentially becomes a form of NFT
       | mining that no human could ever complete against.
        
       | acjohnson55 wrote:
       | This reminds me of the last time I went to Vegas with my two best
       | buds from college. I was a broke grad student, so I couldn't
       | really do any of the entertainment stuff in the city. I also
       | don't really like gambling, so I had a conundrum of how to spend
       | the daylight hours, before the nightlife started up.
       | 
       | We ended up sitting at the nickel slots, playing just enough to
       | stay busy so we could flag down cocktail waitresses for comped
       | drinks. If you were economical enough with your slots play, not
       | selecting multiple lines or multipliers, it was a cheap way to
       | drink.
       | 
       | Pretty quickly, it occurred to me that I was doing a bullshit
       | job. Why had I come to Vegas to feed a machine that wasn't even
       | entertaining me? I felt like livestock.
       | 
       | Eventually, I cracked to the peer pressure of my buddies and
       | decided to play poker with them. I won about $700 as someone who
       | had played maybe twice before in my life, but that's another
       | story...
       | 
       | Interestingly, one of the friends I was with was one of the first
       | people I ever met to make money selling virtual goods. As a high
       | school kid in 2001 or 2002 (well before the Second Life example
       | the author cites in 2005), he made money selling Diablo II
       | accounts he had beefed up in his spare time.
        
       | mvkvvk wrote:
       | NFT Pokemon actually sounds like a cool use of blockchain.
       | However the game seems to focus more on the get rich aspect than
       | the actual gameplay.
        
       | ridiculousthrow wrote:
        
       | api wrote:
       | The problem with the bullshit jobs thesis is similar to this
       | common saying in advertising: "I know I'm wasting 80% of my ad
       | spend. I just don't know which 80%." The same principle likely
       | applies to wages across the economy.
       | 
       | I think it's rather obvious that a huge fraction of employment is
       | worthless. The problem is determining which fraction that is.
       | It's not obvious. Many jobs that look and feel like bullshit may
       | have some hidden function within an organization that is
       | essential (and may not even be the "primary function" of the job
       | as per the job req), and many very important looking jobs may
       | create little to no value. There are probably companies that
       | could knock out the CEO but would have a tougher time without one
       | of their office assistants, but where telling which office
       | assistant this is would be almost impossible without spending
       | months observing the intricate details of operations.
       | 
       | The fact that markets are bad at optimizing out this obvious cost
       | center makes me wonder if it might be "non-computable."
       | 
       | The only way we know of to discover this is to use Darwinian
       | methods, but this is incredibly destructive. Deep recessions take
       | out a lot of good but not-yet-robust businesses along with the
       | bad and the obsolete. The modern practice of pumping economies
       | along forever and not allowing deep recessions probably leads to
       | a ton of dead wood building up but it's also probably why we have
       | progress in quantum computers, electric vehicles, and space
       | flight among other speculative areas that would probably implode
       | in a deep recession (without being specifically subsidized).
       | Forest fires burn the dead wood but they also burn a shitload of
       | trees, especially immature ones who don't have layers of flame
       | retardant bark. Lots of old and injured animals die but so do the
       | babies who can't run fast yet.
        
         | MattGaiser wrote:
         | Also, many jobs are probably partially bullshit or mostly
         | bullshit, but also have one critical (often undocumented)
         | function wrapped into them that if eliminated, would cause
         | enormous damage.
         | 
         | Companies often barely have any idea of what employees spend
         | the majority of their day doing. They are never going to catch
         | all the little things.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | It's also very "easy" to identify a BS job, especially when you
         | don't know much about it.
        
           | api wrote:
           | Yup, and it gets worse when you consider that everyone is
           | usually trying to make their job look important regardless of
           | how important it actually is. It's likely that a deliberate
           | attempt to weed out BS jobs would select for good fakers, ass
           | kissers, and con artists and weed out a lot of heads-down
           | productive people.
        
       | dvt wrote:
       | Play-to-earn will die a painful death, but the takeaway here
       | (which this article dodges) is that players should own their in-
       | game assets. This is really where blockchain comes into play.
       | Diablo 3 tried to do this, but they were too early and too
       | greedy. If done correctly, owning your digital items is certainly
       | more preferable than not.
       | 
       | Again, this is touched in half a paragraph, but this is the real
       | revolutionary aspect of NFTs. And, paradoxically, it's nothing
       | new: Steam store "items" are basically NFTs. Fortnite skins are
       | basically NFTs. It's just that without a decentralized
       | marketplace, you can't sell them.
        
         | blueboo wrote:
         | The article "dodges" the notion players should "own" their in-
         | game items to the same extent you underplay the implications.
         | consider what the article emphasises: the contradiction implied
         | in a live game being rebalanced in real time, affecting "owned"
         | assets.
         | 
         | Do you really own it if the item's form, function, and even in-
         | game existence persists only at the whims of a centralised
         | authority--the game's administrators?
        
           | dvt wrote:
           | > Do you really own it if the item's form, function, and even
           | in-game existence persists only at the whims of a centralised
           | authority--the game's administrators?
           | 
           | This happens literally _all the time_ with Magic cards, lol.
        
         | duskwuff wrote:
         | > This is really where blockchain comes into play. Diablo 3
         | tried to do this, but they were too early and too greedy.
         | 
         | Diablo 3's in-game real-money market wasn't based on a
         | blockchain, and was doomed to failure for game design reasons
         | alone.
         | 
         | > And, paradoxically, it's nothing new: Steam store "items" are
         | basically NFTs. Fortnite skins are basically NFTs. It's just
         | that without a decentralized marketplace, you can't sell them.
         | 
         | You can sell Steam in-game items just fine on the community
         | market (https://steamcommunity.com/market/). You just can't
         | cash that out to real money because Valve, quite sensibly,
         | doesn't want to be classified as a money transmitter.
        
       | soheil wrote:
       | There is something really wrong about doing something that you
       | know is complete garbage and yields no benefit to anyone else in
       | terms of productivity. But after one level of indirection we see
       | all sorts of tasks around us that people do and also benefit no
       | one, for example when someone destroys a pallet of watermelons or
       | fills up a swimming pool with orbeez that end up in garbage hours
       | later. The person who cultivated the watermelons or the worker
       | that toiled in the orbeez factory to make them saw the fruit of
       | their labor yield no benefit to anyone else in terms on
       | productivity. This type of task happens far too often.
       | 
       | Only difference is, there is no masquerade in the NFT app a16z
       | funded.
        
       | exogeny wrote:
       | Games that aren't fun are work. Axie, from all accounts, looks
       | like work.
       | 
       | On the flipside, there are tons of regulated games that are both
       | fun and allow users to flex their niche knowledge, like FanDuel
       | (sports), BigBrain (trivia), and so on.
       | 
       | Just because Axie is a poorly designed game doesn't necessarily
       | invalidated the larger point that jobs and income are changing,
       | and gamification of skills is an interesting trend that is likely
       | here to stay.
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | Sorry to get a bit off track:
       | 
       | So is web3 just " blockchain related things " ?
       | 
       | I feel like web3 as a term usage has exploded to the point that
       | I'm not sure what people are talking about when they say "web3".
        
         | beckingz wrote:
         | web3 is whatever the newest startup is doing.
         | 
         | But yes, blockchain.
        
         | foobarian wrote:
         | I feel like maybe people watched a little too much Silicon
         | Valley and similar shows and some wires got crossed to make
         | people think this is actually a workable mass market idea.
         | IMHO.
        
         | victorvosk wrote:
         | Web3 as a concept is decentralization primarily, though it was
         | invented by people championing crypto. The idea that the web
         | can't be censored or controlled by gov't or large corporations.
         | Everyone should be able to easily contribute and maintain web3.
         | The blockchain is the "logical" place for it to live since a
         | blockchain is just a distributed compute and database platform.
         | 
         | There are several massive hurdles to overcome that non-
         | technical people gloss over or flat out don't understand. Even
         | if you store all the data in a distributed database, store all
         | static files in distributed file systems, a single user would
         | still need a single point of entry to access this network. It
         | seems like a centralized DNS like system would still be needed.
         | 
         | Even if there were multiple providers of this DNS like service,
         | it would put the onus on the user to figure it out. This has
         | never historically worked well for the average user. Also,
         | internet access itself is still typically controlled by a few
         | providers given a users area.
         | 
         | The reality is web3 and crypto is putting too much
         | responsibility on the user. Everyone uses gmail and google
         | because its easy and effective and no one cares its
         | centralized. iPhones are popular because they are easy and the
         | average user doesn't care that Apple controls the ecosystem.
        
         | beambot wrote:
         | Generally refers to decentralized technologies that somehow
         | benefit from blockchain-like data structures. For example, you
         | can compost these three technologies to build a decentralized
         | webserver.
         | 
         | - Filecoin & AR Weave: decentralized file storage. Spend tokens
         | to store files, earn tokens by storing others' files.
         | 
         | - ENS (Ethereum Name Service): DNS-like system for addresses.
         | 
         | - Smart Contracts of various sorts (e.g. Ethereum): Similar to
         | perpetual AWS lambda functions. Spend tokens to publish & call
         | functions; earn tokens by executing functions.
         | 
         | The blockchain aspect is merely a way to have verifiable
         | incentives without explicit trust between actors.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | > you can compost these three technologies to build a
           | decentralized webserver
           | 
           | I don't know if you meant "compose" or "compost", but it
           | works both ways.
        
             | Dowwie wrote:
             | Going to need to mulch more carbon-rich material and
             | introduce digital worms to work through the pile
        
       | Kiro wrote:
       | > Gamers have a word, grinding, to describe repetitive tasks
       | undertaken to gain some desired in-game goal, but are not fun in
       | themselves.
       | 
       | Is this actually true? The linked article doesn't say anything
       | about it being fun or not. I love grinding and think it's fun in
       | itself.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | I agree. It's not a gamer word either. Derived from "the daily
         | grind", it's just about lucrative but repetitive tasks.
         | Sometimes they are fun but I also agree the connotation is that
         | it is most likely boring unless specified otherwise.
        
         | jonwalch wrote:
         | Most of my gamer friends don't like grinding and usually stay
         | away from "grindy" games.
        
           | Kiro wrote:
           | Just because most people don't like it doesn't make it
           | intrinsically unfun. If the above definition holds true no-
           | one would like it except masochists. Anyway, as a counter-
           | point RuneScape has a great grind with a huge player base and
           | I know a lot of people who love grinding.
        
       | beckingz wrote:
       | Certain jobs sufficiently far from the obvious value creation
       | have a tendency to look useless.
       | 
       | In many cases they are useless and could be bundled into other
       | jobs, but when a job is over loaded there is efficiency to
       | unbundling them. Factor in the communications synchronization
       | overhead and it's no wonder that small organizations can perform
       | incredible work. Large organizations have scale though.
        
         | kmeisthax wrote:
         | One of the interesting things about Graeber's typology is that
         | it includes things that you wouldn't consider to be bullshit
         | jobs. There's an entire category of his typology dedicated to
         | jobs that _destroy_ productive output; like if a business were
         | to hire lawyers to sue the pants off of competing businesses.
         | They get a competitive advantage by _increasing_ everyone else
         | 's compliance and legal costs.
         | 
         | I believe this particular categorization could apply to game
         | development in the context of NFT or microtransaction driven
         | gameplay. The economies that these games provide are
         | specifically engineered to increase user spend by targeting
         | "whales". Someone being paid to play a game for someone else
         | _is_ providing a valuable service; but the game doesn 't just
         | exist naturally. It's designed. Building a game so that you
         | _need_ to pay to skip the grind _is_ a bullshit job. And if
         | that 's a bullshit job, then the people selling their Axies and
         | other game resources have transitively bullshit jobs, even if
         | their own job is not inherently bullshit.
        
         | mattcwilson wrote:
         | I think there's something to this comment and the one from
         | zzbzq about Graeber's "canonical bullshit job." I'm also
         | drawing some threads from Goedel Escher Bach.
         | 
         | Perhaps the growth in the administrative sector is a new class
         | of job, that results from scale, coordination costs, Metcalfe's
         | law, and Goodhart's law.
         | 
         | The job is to combat the diminishing returns on communication
         | decay due to scale by measuring the system as a whole or in
         | part and attempting to optimize that part.
         | 
         | There is no "product" other than the change in metric selected.
         | There is no external or intrinsic value other than whatever
         | 2nd, 3rd, nth order effects the measurement focus has on actual
         | observable inputs and outputs of the system.
         | 
         | The job, in a GEB sense, is just a theorem that references some
         | or all of the system itself, and which may not mean anything
         | whatsoever outside the context of the system.
        
           | beckingz wrote:
           | Scale increasingly becomes constrained by organizational
           | interfaces. At a certain point, trying to add people to an
           | organization actually makes it less productive unless their
           | contributions can be abstracted globally.
           | 
           | At a certain extent, the system must become inhuman: metrics
           | and interface contracts are needed to prevent overhead
           | growth.
        
       | jimbob45 wrote:
       | My problem with these Play2Earn games is that it provides a dark
       | motivation for kids to play them.
       | 
       | Previously, you'd play something like Doom or Quake because you
       | enjoyed it and you'd quit after an hour or two because it would
       | rapidly become repetitive and boring. You knew deep down that you
       | were wasting time on recreation and that you should probably do
       | the things you should be doing (e.g. the dishes, reading a book,
       | etc).
       | 
       | Now, there's a small voice for players of these telling them that
       | this time is productive. They're earning money and that's a noble
       | goal to ourselves. Even worse are the games like League of
       | Legends and WoW where there are professional scenes. It's very
       | easy to deceive yourself into thinking you're just practicing
       | those games in order to one day go pro.
        
         | nightski wrote:
         | I'd be careful telling people what they "should" and
         | "shouldn't" be doing with their time based on your contrived
         | opinions.
        
           | frankbreetz wrote:
           | Telling other people what they should and shouldn't do is the
           | basis of society
        
           | throwaheyy wrote:
           | I'm fine with telling them that they shouldn't.
           | 
           | We already went through all this with bs degrees that leave
           | people in massive debt and without sufficient income to pay
           | it back.
        
           | stale2002 wrote:
           | The point that the other person was making, is that if you
           | are arguing that these "games" are actually a good/effective
           | way of making money for kids, you are lying.
           | 
           | That's the problem. The issue is they there could be people
           | who are tricked into believing that this is an effective way
           | of making money, when it is clearly not for most people.
        
           | jimbob45 wrote:
           | Reading books and maintaining personal cleanliness are
           | controversial activities now? In what clown world should
           | anyone ever be advised to play video games instead of doing
           | those things?
        
       | Pxtl wrote:
       | Pay hundreds of dollars to earn a few per day? This economy
       | sounds more like Cutco more than any modern NFT thing.
        
       | Liron wrote:
       | Here's patio11's thread:
       | https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1459682519360491523
       | 
       | I was shocked to see A16z recently investing $150M in Axie
       | Infinity and doubling down on their justification of play-to-earn
       | as a coherent concept, as if it's not fundamentally a pyramid
       | scheme. It's lowered my expectation of what passes for thought
       | leadership in our industry.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | Thought leadership smeadership.
         | 
         | A16z's goal is to make money, lots of it. Shouldn't confuse its
         | purpose by giving it other goals.
        
       | laserlight wrote:
       | According to Graeber, a job is bullshit when the one who does it
       | thinks that the job is bullshit. By this definition, chores,
       | menial tasks don't count as bullshit. I don't see any quote from
       | players who call what they are doing bullshit.
        
         | graphpapa wrote:
         | I can't remember exactly but this seems like a
         | mischaracterisation.
         | 
         | I think it was termed more like "it is a bullshit job if the
         | world would run just as well (or even better) if the job didn't
         | exist".
         | 
         | Still relies on self-assessment but isn't quite what you said.
         | More based on some idea of "usefulness". Play to earn doesn't
         | seem very useful.
        
           | quadrangle wrote:
           | You're right mainly. Self-assessment was a filter he used, it
           | wasn't the definition in itself.
        
           | laserlight wrote:
           | It has been a few years since I read the book. But I recall
           | very clearly that he states that the definition is very
           | narrow and strict in order not to get into subjective
           | arguments on whether a job is _necessary_ or _shouldn 't
           | exist_. For instance, one could argue that the world would be
           | better off without telemarketing, yet the argument doesn't
           | make telemarketing a bullshit job. IIRC, military was another
           | example from the book of such a case.
        
             | laserlight wrote:
             | To follow up with my own comment, here is the definition
             | from the book:
             | 
             | > Final Working Definition: a bullshit job is a form of
             | paid employment that is so completely pointless,
             | unnecessary, or pernicious that even the employee cannot
             | justify its existence even though, as part of the
             | conditions of employment, the employee feels obliged to
             | pretend that this is not the case.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | cblconfederate wrote:
         | Yeah this is a pyramid scheme, not a bullshit job
         | 
         | It's as legit as someone who participates in an mlm . Its not
         | bullshit
        
       | bdr wrote:
       | Slightly OT, but for the historical record:
       | 
       | > People have made money by selling virtual goods acquired in-
       | game at least as far back as Second Life in 2005.
       | 
       | I saw it happening at least as far back as '98 in DragonRealms, a
       | MUD and (when it moved off of AOL) one of the first online games
       | with a monthly subscription.
        
         | Kiro wrote:
         | Yeah, I sold stuff in Ultima Online much earlier than 2005.
         | Lazy research in this article.
        
       | mosdl wrote:
       | So instead of banning gold farming in their game, they just made
       | it a feature and collect a %?
        
         | brazzy wrote:
         | The point seems to be that the game is _nothing but_ gold
         | farming, and the only money going into the system comes from
         | prospective gold farmers paying a participation fee.
        
       | armchairhacker wrote:
       | We should create a game like Axie infinity, but instead of making
       | money from useless Axies you make it from writing code.
       | 
       | And then since crypto is bad we just pay people with regular
       | money instead.
       | 
       | Also maybe have them sign a contract for working fixed hours
       | and/or completing a project in X time. So you know, the project
       | actually gets done.
        
         | 58x14 wrote:
         | That sounds great. I'll create a DAO to collect funds so we can
         | create this game. What should we call it? How about Recursion?
        
       | skybrian wrote:
       | The next step would be for the company to automate those jobs by
       | replacing the workers with npc characters who can grind for you.
       | 
       | That would make the game "pay to win," which is presumably easier
       | to implement if you do it that way to begin with.
        
       | HWR_14 wrote:
       | How is this not a Ponzi scheme?
        
         | _jab wrote:
         | The claim seems to be that the game will attract people who
         | don't view the game as an income stream, but rather just as a
         | game. They pay the entry fee, and then may also buy assets from
         | other players, thus funding the play-to-earners.
         | 
         | I think there's a slim chance this could be a viable business
         | plan, but probably not in any socially-good way. The mobile
         | games industry reaps a good chunk of its profits from "whales",
         | customers who spend crazy-seeming amounts of money on games.
         | Blockchain-based games may also be especially dangerous to
         | young gamers who get access to a parent's credit card and rack
         | up huge charges. This already happens in games like Fortnite,
         | but whereas Epic Games can be pressured into giving refunds to
         | parents when this happens, a blockchain offers no protection if
         | the rules of the game don't allow for it.
         | 
         | We're probably better off if it _is_ a Ponzi scheme.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | I love it.
           | 
           | No one plays the game because it's fun now. But in the
           | future, the game will be fun, and people will pay to play it.
           | 
           | Right now, it's just crypto where you can spend your time AND
           | money to get a return instead of just your money.
           | 
           | Got it.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | So a Ponzi scheme works like this:
         | 
         | * You take money from investors
         | 
         | * You then claim that you are making money from some legitimate
         | business
         | 
         | * You return money to earlier investors by just feeding them
         | the money later investors put in
         | 
         | So who are the early investors here, what's the legitimate
         | business, and how are we taking money from later investors to
         | give to early investors?
         | 
         | EDIT: Guys, it's not a zero-sum game. You can breed new axies,
         | etc. By the logic espoused by everyone in the responses, the
         | stock market is a ponzi scheme because later participants buy
         | stock from earlier participants. This may be my fault with the
         | defn lacking some things, but clearly the stock market isn't a
         | ponzi scheme, so something is wrong.
        
           | ragona wrote:
           | Early investors: people who "invested" hundreds of dollars to
           | play. Legitimate business: "we're a game studio." Later
           | investors: newer players who see the earlier ones making
           | money.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | jeremyjh wrote:
           | Read TFA. Your questions are all answered in it.
        
           | foxfluff wrote:
           | > So who are the early investors here
           | 
           | "Gameplay requires the purchase of three Axies, which
           | currently cost in the hundreds of US dollars each."
           | 
           | > what's the legitimate business
           | 
           | "By blurring the line between "player" and "worker", the game
           | has effectively built a Ponzi scheme with built-in
           | deniability. Sure, some users will be net gainers and other
           | users will be net losers, but who am I to say the net losers
           | aren't in it for the _joy of the game_? "
           | 
           | So I guess the "legitimate business" is making the game
           | interesting for people who.. enjoy it?
           | 
           | > and how are we taking money from later investors to give to
           | early investors
           | 
           | I don't know how the in-game mechanics work but later
           | investors also purchase Axies and somehow that money ends up
           | in the hands of the former investors. Maybe not
           | automatically, I guess it depends on what in-game actions you
           | take, but given that you first have to invest before you can
           | play...
        
           | newaccount74 wrote:
           | The investors are the players hoping to make money from the
           | game. The players have to buy Axies to play the game.
           | 
           | The "legitimate business" is playing the game to get more
           | Axies that you can then sell.
           | 
           | The later investors then buy Axies that the early investors
           | earned by playing the game.
           | 
           | As soon as exponential growth stops the system collapses.
        
           | meheleventyone wrote:
           | The economy is zero sum. The early investors are the people
           | that bought in early and they cash out by selling to the
           | later investors. The "legitimate business" claim is Axie
           | itself and the claim that it can both reward investors who
           | hold and rent Axies as well as pay people to play the game.
           | An idea that only works if more people keep putting money in.
           | To further this claim Axies developers make an awful lot of
           | noise about how they are going to introduce new mechanics
           | which will supposedly fix this.
        
             | galago wrote:
             | I'm not sure about this, but I think the correct term might
             | be "negative sum." The winners gain less than the losers
             | lost for the reasons you mentioned.
        
         | jeremyjh wrote:
         | I agree. To me its a Ponzi scheme in a gold farming disguise.
         | Gold farming only works when the game is fun enough that people
         | will buy gold to play with in it. In this game, everyone
         | playing it is buying in for hundreds of dollars and most likely
         | that is the only source of the payments that are going out.
        
         | vsareto wrote:
         | It probably is, but it's a Ponzi scheme with a potentially
         | addictive lower layer in the form of a game, which is going to
         | make previous ponzi scheme architects jealous.
         | 
         | Me giving money to Bernie Madoff via wire transfer hoping for
         | gains isn't really addictive. The graphics and gameplay of a
         | game might be. If you happen to build a ponzi scheme into that
         | game, you benefit from its addictive qualities.
         | 
         | Keeping a healthy population of the lower levels of a ponzi
         | scheme is key to keeping it going.
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | > I was skeptical that any mechanism to create bullshit jobs
       | could arise from a system as inherently Darwinian as capitalism
       | 
       | But if we take Darwinian evolution as our analogy, there are
       | plenty of strategies that essentially piggy back on other
       | organisms. Cuckoo birds, intestinal worms, a whole coterie of
       | sexual behaviors.
       | 
       | It's also the everyday experience of just about everyone that
       | they perceive certain others to not be contributing anything at
       | all. The surprise is that some people are willing to admit they
       | are one of those people as well. It's not hard to think of how
       | this would work, either. Convince someone to hire you, and then
       | don't contribute, while taking a salary. If it's hard or
       | expensive to detect the non-contributor, there will be NCs in the
       | organization.
        
         | vsareto wrote:
         | Capitalism has very little in common with Darwinism because of
         | the nature of the rules involved. Darwinism has a lot of
         | physical rules which you can't circumvent. Capitalism deals far
         | more in social or soft rules which can be circumvented and give
         | you an advantage if you aren't caught. And if you are caught,
         | the punishment might only be a percentage of the total profits.
         | 
         | I'm not going to stay alive because the universe forgot to
         | enforce the dying part of me being mauled by a bear.
        
         | sam_lowry_ wrote:
         | > coterie of sexual behaviors
         | 
         | Are you saying we can witness that in people too?
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | Hmm I think I meant menagerie. But yes, evolution and
           | especially sexual selection creates a lot of interesting
           | behaviors, and some of them a purely win-lose, and yes in
           | people as well. There's a reason cheating on your partner is
           | a trope of soap operas.
        
         | boppo1 wrote:
         | I hate when people refer to our regime of interest-rate
         | intervention as capitalism. The primary feature of capitalism
         | is price discovery, which we have intentionally given up.
         | 
         | EDIT: If there are any economists out there who can point me in
         | the direction of a primary source that elucidates the
         | relationship between price discovery and interest rates in a
         | way that will help me understand contemporary monetary policy
         | as something other than political expediency, I would greatly
         | appreciate it.
        
       | shadowgovt wrote:
       | > Web Two was don't be evil. Web Three is can't be evil. You bake
       | it into the code that you can't be evil.
       | 
       | Yikes. That's a philosophy that really misses the nature of evil.
       | In fact, I think we're doing ourselves up for colossal failure if
       | we assume we can create an unexploitable algorithm that we then
       | cannot modify that can be crafted to be evil-proof.
        
       | originalvichy wrote:
       | It seems that after a few years of relative calm in the crypto
       | scene (bitcoin just used to transact, mine or invest) the easier
       | it got to roll-your-own-crypto the more magical ways we are
       | finding uses for it. I had no idea this existed before.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | A bit like social media points, right?
       | 
       | Followers, likes, karma, all aren't directly worth anything. But
       | it takes work to get them.
       | 
       | I know a bunch of prominent internet people who don't make much
       | money with this status, because it's not easy to monetize it
       | without compromise yourself.
        
         | badlucklottery wrote:
         | Charlie Booker had a similar take back in 2013:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjGh_lE6EGY
        
       | jayd16 wrote:
       | Selling digital goods for real money is pretty well tread. What
       | does web3/crypto add here?
       | 
       | Game assets can't be used in another game. You need full support
       | from the game developer. The devs could much more easily and
       | cheaply sell the assets direct or support trading.
       | 
       | If the game is distributed or has private servers or something
       | that might warrant defi trades, but wouldn't gamers just hack
       | their own items? If they control the server code, surely it's
       | possible.
       | 
       | Seems like a marketing gimmick at best. What am I missing?
        
         | Calavar wrote:
         | It is a marketing gimmick. Like the article says, the addition
         | of NFTs is just a bunch of techno mumbo jumbo to build a facade
         | of credibility and blind people to the fact that these games
         | are digital Ponzi schemes.
        
         | jonwalch wrote:
         | I don't think you're missing a ton. Getting game developer buy
         | in is definitely the biggest challenge.
         | 
         | I think "GameFi" is the most compelling use case. Use your in-
         | game items (NFTs) as collateral for a loan, or lend it to other
         | players to use while you retain ownership. Game devs could
         | build all this functionality themselves, but they get it for
         | free if they don't take the walled garden approach.
        
           | jayd16 wrote:
           | You say free but they'll need to integrate with the chain for
           | all transactions. Simple loot drops will need to be put on
           | the chain. Seems pretty onerous compared to the normal
           | implementation. Odds are they would need to duplicate all the
           | functionality in game as well.
        
       | sam_lowry_ wrote:
       | >Games that maximize property rights (as Axie Infinity wisely
       | hasn't) >are bound to be overrun with cheaters and bots, which in
       | turn will >just bring down the value of in-game assets anyway.
       | 
       | Bitcoin comes to mind as a good example. A the beginning there
       | were geeks mining it on their gaming machines and buying
       | expensive video cards to both play games and mine.
        
       | Dowwie wrote:
       | The next wave of exploitation in this web3 space will involve
       | lending practices. Kids will pledge their digital assets as
       | collateral to buy other goods on margin. Their assets will lose
       | value in the market and the kids will receive margin calls to
       | restore balances or forfeit everything in the game, including
       | reputation.
        
       | tduberne wrote:
       | I did not read the book, but my understanding of "bullshit job"
       | is a job that is useless to the entity paying for it: you could
       | remove that person completely, and everything would continue to
       | work. This seems very different from what is at play here: the
       | game studio very carefully designed the game to attract those
       | grinders, and this is how the studio makes money. The article
       | clearly sees this as well, by labeling the game as a ponzi
       | scheme.
        
       | mherdeg wrote:
       | Is this different from the phenomenon described at
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_farming?
       | 
       | Honestly it seems like a pretty great career -- you get to spend
       | your time indoors, probably somewhere climate controlled with
       | electricity and restrooms. This is way better than the workhouse.
       | 
       | Whoever is buying these things as a collector is basically
       | donating their wealth to others, like a kind of privatized
       | welfare. If people are buying these things as a speculative
       | investment, they're participating in a private lottery. That all
       | seems ... fine?
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | AC costs money, in most of the world they would do without and
         | have extra heat from the PC. Also, limited range of motion plus
         | extremely long workweek quickly results in RSI.
        
           | beambot wrote:
           | This feels like a "let them eat cake" reply when compared to
           | agrarian labor...
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | How much money people make is a separate question, but
             | playing games is likely worse for the body than most forms
             | agrarian labor. Excluding accidents with heavy machinery.
        
               | beambot wrote:
               | As someone who worked on a midwestern farm as a child, I
               | will respectfully disagree with your assessment -- farm
               | labor is significantly more harmful to your body than
               | working at a computer.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | I have also done both, computer work is only easier when
               | you have a short work day. Try working a gold farmers
               | 80-90 hour week and it will quickly wreck you.
        
         | newaccount74 wrote:
         | The article suggests that the game is currently only played by
         | people hoping to make money. The money paid out to old players
         | comes from new players.
         | 
         | It's just a Ponzi scheme.
        
         | betwixthewires wrote:
         | I wouldn't call it donating if they're grinding for it.
         | 
         | Imagine you could go to a prison and get paid to break rocks
         | all day for money whenever you want. OK, sure, the people doing
         | it are doing it because they need it. But would you call the
         | person running such an establishment charitable?
         | 
         | It's just dirty, when you take out all the in between and just
         | look at the ends of the process, it's basically paying poor
         | people to waste their time because they need food because you
         | get off on it.
        
         | advisedwang wrote:
         | Except that we end up spending a vast amount of human effort
         | doing work that fundamentally doesn't need to be done. There's
         | no actual economic output to paying people to break rocks.
        
           | paulryanrogers wrote:
           | I guess it depends on the grind involved. Some streamers are
           | paid to play games. They confess they don't always enjoy it
           | or every game that people want to watch, but it seems better
           | than some alternatives. And a few YouTubers I follow have
           | admitted to less than stellar career prospects otherwise.
           | 
           | Now if it's pure, unfun grind that only pushes numbers around
           | in an MMO then I'd agree it's basically just outsourced
           | cheating. And a net negative both because it compromises a
           | social form of entertainment and doesn't produce anything
           | else of tangible value.
        
           | ViViDboarder wrote:
           | Exactly. One could make an argument that the work some users
           | put in, once sold, result in value to the buyer, but that
           | value isn't generated by the worker. The developers created
           | the scheme and could deliver the value directly at no cost to
           | all players, poor and wealthy, but instead chose to create
           | meaningless work by making grinding opportunities.
        
             | scatters wrote:
             | I have the feeling that buyers feel they are getting more
             | value if the item was "generated" by grinding than if it
             | was created ab nihilo by the developers. Why, I have no
             | idea.
        
             | jbergqvist wrote:
             | One could also argue that if the developers did that, the
             | market value of the digital item in question would drop.
             | The value that the buyer receives is grounded in the large
             | time investment required to acquire the item in the game.
             | Even though it is completely artificial, it makes the item
             | more scarce and therefore more desirable to other players.
             | I totally agree that the fact that this power is in the
             | hands of the developers, though, makes these types of NFTs
             | far from the decentralized digital goods they are claimed
             | to be as pointed out by the author.
        
           | nlitened wrote:
           | Imagine there's a multi-billion dollar industry where some
           | people record sound waves made with their vocal cords, and
           | other people pay _real money_ monthly to have a chance to
           | replay those waves for entertainment only.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | The difference is that a game company could just sell gold
             | directly. If music creation could be automated so easily
             | we'd probably do that too.
        
             | user-the-name wrote:
             | Do you not understand that people find it pleasurable to
             | listen to music, or what?
        
               | bagels wrote:
               | And, inexplicably, people find pleasure (or are merely
               | addicted to) in digital coins in a game too.
        
               | user-the-name wrote:
               | The two are in absolutely no way whatsoever comparable,
               | don't be ridiculous.
        
               | StanislavPetrov wrote:
               | Says who? Who are you to say that what amuses one person
               | has more value than what amuses a different person?
        
           | StanislavPetrov wrote:
           | >Except that we end up spending a vast amount of human effort
           | doing work that fundamentally doesn't need to be done.
           | 
           | Who decides what work, "needs to be done"? I suppose you
           | could argue that activities that create the necessities
           | needed to survive (food, shelter, clothing), "need to be
           | done", but everything else is simply a matter of choice.
           | Economic output is a subjective, contrived metric.
        
           | 999900000999 wrote:
           | But there's an economic drain if you fire all the rock
           | breakers, and they end up on the streets.
           | 
           | With automation coming for most jobs, we can either live in a
           | low to no work Utopia or a hypercapitalist hell. Given recent
           | trends, my money is on hypercapitalist hell.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | People keep claiming that automation is coming for most
             | jobs, and yet we still don't have reliable, affordable
             | robots that can do basic tasks like cooking a decent
             | hamburger or stocking store shelves or snaking a plugged
             | toilet. This belief in major automation advances is more
             | like a religion than something grounded in hard science.
             | Sure automation will gradually increase over time but it's
             | going to be a long, slow grind.
        
             | foxfluff wrote:
             | This fits Graeber's thesis; "The book [..] makes the case
             | that the ruling class stands to lose from the proletariat
             | having extra free time on their hands"
        
         | duskwuff wrote:
         | It's different inasmuch as it's even stupider.
         | 
         | Gold farming is, at least, based on the premise that there are
         | people who are willing to pay other people money to perform
         | repetitive actions in a video game for them. It's still kind of
         | dumb and it has harmful effects on in-game economies, but at
         | least there's some semblance of money being exchanged for goods
         | and services.
         | 
         | "Play to earn", on the other hand, is based on the premise of
         | cutting out the middleman and having the game developer just
         | straight-up hand players money (or something money-equivalent)
         | for playing their game. How this is even supposed to work from
         | an economic standpoint is a question that I've never seen
         | adequately answered.
        
           | jeremyjh wrote:
           | The question is answered in TFA:
           | 
           | > These "economic opportunities" are essentially a wealth
           | transfer from new players to established ones. Gameplay
           | requires the purchase of three Axies, which currently cost in
           | the hundreds of US dollars each. Players who buy in treat
           | this as an investment, since it's a necessary buy-in in order
           | to work in the game.
           | 
           | It sounds more like a Ponzi scheme in a Gold farming disguise
           | to me.
           | 
           | I'm very familiar with Gold farming from Eve Online, where
           | selling game currency (ISK) was permitted via exchange of
           | game time cards sold by the game's developer. There was
           | always a secondary market for game time cards sold for real
           | money and that was legal too. The reason it all worked is
           | because playing the game was really fun, but required to
           | grind to get ISK. People with more money than time would
           | prefer to buy themselves new spaceships to get blown up in
           | than grind for them.
           | 
           | It really sounds though like Axie Infinity is not a fun game
           | and _no one_ treats it as one. So it is something new.
           | 
           | > it's hard to find any reviews on Axie Infinity as a game
           | rather than as an income stream or speculative investment
        
             | jakemal wrote:
             | > It sounds more like a Ponzi scheme in a Gold farming
             | disguise to me.
             | 
             | I would agree with this if the primary income stream came
             | directly from the increase in value of Axies as the game
             | attracted more users. From my understanding, the income
             | comes from acquiring and selling in-game currency rather
             | than from the Axies themselves.
             | 
             | Is this a bullshit job? Maybe. Ponzi scheme? I don't think
             | so.
             | 
             | If people are working this bullshit job, it means that this
             | bullshit job is better than their alternatives. I'm not
             | convinced the existence of these kinds of games is a net-
             | negative.
        
               | mminer237 wrote:
               | The in-game currency's purpose is to breed new Axies
               | though. If there wasn't increasing demand for Axies, SLP
               | would be worthless.
        
               | jakemal wrote:
               | Is that the only use of the currency or just one possible
               | use?
        
               | mminer237 wrote:
               | I have not played Axie Infinity, but to the best of my
               | knowledge that is the only use of Smooth Love Potions.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | ggm wrote:
       | A reminder that the Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis at
       | one point in his pre parliamentary career did extensive work on
       | the economics of MMOs for valve, eve online.
        
       | TeeMassive wrote:
       | > David Graeber makes the case that a sizable chunk of the labour
       | economy is essentially people performing useless work, as a sort
       | of subconscious self-preservation instinct of the economic status
       | quo.
       | 
       | Isn't it unavoidable in a world with food surplus and automation?
        
       | anm89 wrote:
       | I still totally fail to understand this concept. Is there
       | anything here beyond impotent whining? What are they proposing to
       | do? They subjectively call it bullshit but other people choose to
       | play totally free from compulsion.
       | 
       | What should we do? Physically restrain them from playing?
        
         | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
         | We should raise awareness that it's a scam so that reputable
         | people don't fund and promote it. In particular, I hope they
         | can be stopped from raising a series C, limiting their ability
         | to keep the scam going once they exhaust the $150m A16z gave
         | them.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | victorvosk wrote:
       | So many of these conversations can be broken down to the things
       | you find valuable might not be the thing others find valuable and
       | there is no right or wrong. You either get it or you don't. I
       | have zero desire to collect model trains, but I understand some
       | people do and there is probably value there in that community.
        
       | cblconfederate wrote:
       | Meanwhile there are legit decentralized, fun, self hosted games
       | whose hosts barely make any money to sustain their servers. But
       | because they are truly decentralized, VCs won't touch them
       | because they can't control them. I swear this web3 thing will die
       | from lack of market fit
        
       | xg15 wrote:
       | > _We believe in a future where work and play become one._
       | 
       | I'd like to nominate this statement as one of the most cynical
       | sentences of the year.
        
       | moneywoes wrote:
       | If they can ban players fir cheating how is the game
       | decentralized?
        
       | brudgers wrote:
       | For context, Graeber talking about Bullshit Jobs on BookTV:
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/6eyaDHj5I5g
        
       | Cypher wrote:
       | I prefer it over the mobile microtransaction loot box culture of
       | the last decade.
        
         | jeremyjh wrote:
         | Have you played the game? Is it actually fun?
        
       | 58x14 wrote:
       | In the late 2000s, as a teenager, I was gifted a Runescape
       | account. This account had level 80+ woodcutting, allowing one to
       | chop magic trees - which would produce the most expensive lumber
       | in the game. It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve
       | this skill level, we're talking several hundred hours minimum.
       | 
       | At some point I had realized that there were different sketchy
       | websites that would buy and sell the in-game currency, gold
       | pieces or GP. It was something like $10 to 1M GP. I could chop
       | enough magic logs in about 4-6 hours to make $10.
       | 
       | I had a breakthrough. What if I wrote a macro to record my cursor
       | and clicks during my route from the 'bank' (where you can deposit
       | any amount of any material) to the nearby respawning magic tree
       | forest?
       | 
       | Weeks went by and I had passive income. Runescape eventually
       | introduced the Grand Exchange, a literal in-game stock market
       | that allowed power users like me to sell much larger quantities
       | of certain items instantly, across all Runescape servers
       | (referred to as Worlds) simultaneously. This required a
       | standardized pricing mechanism, like an order book, where prices
       | of any item would fluctuate based on buy and sell orders.
       | 
       | Suddenly, I now could see a +-10% change on the value of my
       | digital assets, on which my passive income was built.
       | 
       | I could go on; Runescape in fact taught me much about economics.
       | What's extraordinary is selling Runescape gold led me to Bitcoin,
       | and I've watched cryptocurrency for nearly a decade, seeing
       | trends from a MMO propagate throughout the world. It seems human
       | nature to innovate and stagnate, and the more immediate our
       | collective feedback loops, the quicker these cycles are.
        
         | M5x7wI3CmbEem10 wrote:
         | how did you find btc via rs?
        
         | danShumway wrote:
         | I know a lot of people have fond memories of this kind of
         | thing, but from a designer perspective, is it good that a game
         | is so boring that players are willing to pay real-world money
         | to skip parts of it? Runescape set up a system that was so
         | grind-heavy that players broke server rules and wrote automated
         | scripts to grind for them, and other players gave them money to
         | do that. Because the minute-to-minute gameplay of Runescape was
         | bad; people were willing to pay $10 of real money to remove 4-6
         | hours of gameplay from the game.
         | 
         | Well frankly, that's 4-6 hours of gameplay should never have
         | been in the game in the first place. Players should not feel
         | bored playing your game for that long, certainly not bored
         | enough to pay money to get out of it.
         | 
         | I have no doubt that learning how to exploit these systems was
         | really fun for people, because learning how to exploit systems
         | and build macros and read economic signals and avoid detection
         | from a company is genuinely really interesting, fascinating
         | work. It's just a shame that the only way Runescape could
         | (inadvertently) enable that experience for people was to make a
         | crappy grind process for an even larger portion of their
         | playerbase.
         | 
         | I can't get away from thinking of the experience 58x14 is
         | describing is a failure of game design. 58x14 has fond memories
         | of this because they were playing an entirely different much
         | more exciting hacking game than the crappy grind that
         | Runescape's designers had built and intended for the majority
         | of their playerbase.
         | 
         | And I think that perspective is worth keeping when we look at
         | play-to-earn games. These are boring games, and some people are
         | doing some fun economics stuff on top of them. That doesn't
         | make the core gameplay any less boring though, and the fun
         | economics stuff only works because a lot of other players are
         | having a miserable time with the intended mechanics. I don't
         | like praising a design ethos that says that a nontrivial
         | portion of your players will be bored and will pay someone else
         | to play the game for them.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | > is it good that a game is so boring that players are
           | willing to pay real-world money to skip parts of it?
           | 
           | The difference between now and then is that people had to go
           | to third parties; nowadays the game developer themselves will
           | sell you the skip. Or a chance to gamble at a boost.
           | 
           | Some of these mechanics are "compelling", in a very visceral
           | sense - they compel people to spend time or money, in a way
           | that isn't quite describable as fun. And yet creating an
           | obsession and a goal and providing a way to grind or spend to
           | that goal is popular.
        
           | themacguffinman wrote:
           | While I personally agree with your view that gameplay should
           | always be actually fun, I think that misses the magic of
           | games for a significant population of gamers.
           | 
           | Is most of your real day-to-day life truly "fun" in a game-
           | like sense? Most people would say "no", X hours in a day is a
           | lot of time to be consistently having fun, yet a lot of
           | people would still describe their lives as "rewarding" and
           | therefore worthwhile. In fact, the harder your life is, the
           | more rewarding it can be.
           | 
           | These games aim to be "rewarding" and therefore worthwhile.
           | In many ways, these types of games offer an alternative world
           | and life that's more rewarding than reality. The parallels
           | with real life are direct and intentional: "grinding" is like
           | real work that earns you fungible profit that you can then
           | trade to skip other types of work that you don't like to do.
           | This is a proven loop of reward in reality and it works in
           | games too, being consistently "fun" isn't the only way for a
           | game to satisfy players. I can't speak to Axie Infinity which
           | seems like it's not even well developed to that extent, but
           | for other games in the field these grinds aren't exactly a
           | failure of design, they're effective at constructing a life-
           | like reward system that doesn't solely rely on "fun".
           | 
           | Of course the elephant in the room is that this "reward" is
           | artificial, hence the whole article about this being a
           | bullshit job. I personally avoid these types of games
           | (basically all MMOs) for this reason and I don't see how web3
           | makes any of it better. But I find it hard to criticize it
           | objectively. I think real life is bullshit anyway, so the
           | cheap imitation of life that these games offer isn't always
           | completely worse. I can see why many people willingly buy
           | into it.
        
           | redisman wrote:
           | That's a very romantic view of the goals of game design. For
           | a live service game the metrics to hit are mainly retention
           | and monetization. Whether something is subjectively fun
           | doesn't really come into the picture
        
           | nohr wrote:
           | Runescape never intended folks to hit that high a level. Two
           | brothers made the game and they just kind of filled the
           | endgame levels never expecting anyone to reach it. Later,
           | they added more and more content to fill those later levels.
           | So it also suprised them I guess.
        
           | TameAntelope wrote:
           | I wouldn't think of a game like Runescape as one thing, but
           | more of a collection of many things.
           | 
           | What you pay for is the ability to skip the parts of the game
           | you don't like, so you can focus on the parts of the game you
           | do like. Ideally everyone would like everything you make, but
           | _that_ feels more like a naive way of thinking than to worry
           | about people wanting to skip parts of your game.
           | 
           | As long as "pay to skip" doesn't become "pay to win", I'd say
           | a game is probably fine, overall, if people _are_ enjoying
           | substantial portions of that game, even if they 're not
           | enjoying all of it.
        
           | cardosof wrote:
           | I believe this is what happens with any open world MMO.
           | There's no storyline to finish, there's no ending, and game
           | devs have incentives to keep players playing forever (the
           | more hours a player plays, the more likely he will spend more
           | money).
           | 
           | There's only two ways to keep players playing: new content
           | and/or grinding mechanics.
           | 
           | Grinding mechanics are way, way easier to create. You can
           | even reuse sprites and just change names - a lv10 tree, a
           | lv50 tree, a lv100 tree. Real content is hard to do, requires
           | imagination, development, testing.
           | 
           | So most open world games will have a high grinding/content
           | ratio. But, as lame as it sounds, some people do like it. I'm
           | guilty of playing a RuneScape-like game for mobile (Ancients
           | Reborn). Things are slow and you need hours and hours to
           | raise skills but, even though it's arguably boring, I find it
           | relaxing. And there's pvp and talking to fellow players to
           | keep it fun. So, in the end, I agree with you it sucks to
           | have a game some players pay to not play it and others have
           | fun cheating it, and it's a cheap design choice, but there
           | are some people find it relaxing to watch a little toon chop
           | down a magic tree.
        
             | thombat wrote:
             | Now you've made me wonder: those hours I spent mesmerised
             | by watching the colourful display of Windows 95 defragging
             | the disc, would I have paid a monthly subscription for it?
             | What if they'd added achievements, or leveling up?
             | "Congratulations! Your wizard can now restructure directory
             | chains!"
        
         | jonathan-adly wrote:
         | Very similar story here.. I had a few party hats in Runescape
         | which made the whole NFT thing and to a lesser extent Bitcoin
         | so much easier to understand.
        
           | jayd16 wrote:
           | I still don't get it. We already sold digital assets so why
           | do we need NFTs or Blockchain? What does it add here?
        
             | KarlKemp wrote:
             | You need NFTs to have something to trade with your
             | cryptocurrencies. And you need cryptocurrencies to trade
             | NFTs.
        
             | wyre wrote:
             | NFTs are the equivalent of decentralized RS party hats.
        
             | jonathan-adly wrote:
             | Party hats served no purpose whatsoever in the game except
             | as a status symbol (arguably even!). Yet, was worth a lot
             | of money in the game (and a god sum in real life for a high
             | schooler)
             | 
             | Humans are emotional animals, utility is a very poor
             | approximation of value.
        
             | smolder wrote:
             | A somewhat hard to erase record of which url "belongs" to
             | whom. That, and it gives them the appearance of having some
             | high tech magical properties that will lead to an explosion
             | in value, helping to justify asking prices to the marks.
        
         | gjs278 wrote:
        
         | wswope wrote:
         | Similar to your story, I learned how to program by writing
         | Runescape botting scripts.
         | 
         | Fast forward to today, and my hobby tech project for the past
         | few months has been building a OSRS market-intel website for
         | trading on the Grand Exchange. Great toy market that eliminates
         | a lot of the complexity of "real-world" economics. Funny how
         | outsized that damn game's influence has been on the world.
        
         | rapind wrote:
         | In my early 20s I played an MMO called Asherons Call. I
         | discovered a vendor in one high level area that would sell bows
         | for less than a specific vendor in a low level area would buy
         | them, netting you a small margin per bow.
         | 
         | Being a programmer I wrote a script that used two different
         | teleport skills (lifestone and portal recall I think?) and a
         | bit of movement and clicking based on pixel (Color) matching to
         | deal with latency, tweaking it over time, and started printing
         | in game money. I would come home from work to a backpack full
         | of D notes (unit of currency I adapted my script to convert).
         | 
         | Then I would sell these D notes on eBay. Did this for a few
         | months. First month I made over 7k USD (I shit you not). 2nd
         | month about 3.5k, maybe 1k third month, so basically the market
         | collapsed and I moved on (to other fun exploits... once you've
         | been bitten by the exploit bug...).
         | 
         | In retrospect I regret it.
         | 
         | I'm a total hypocrite saying this, but I think this sort of
         | crap has ruined MMOs, and gotten far more advanced and
         | efficient over the years.
         | 
         | The fun I had in AC before I started doing this stuff is
         | something I wish more people could experience, but I suspect
         | has been lost.
        
           | kbenson wrote:
           | > I think this sort of crap has ruined MMOs
           | 
           | Once you start allowing (or failing to prevent) real world
           | transactions from altering the play of the game, which is
           | really hard to do while still allowing any sort of item/money
           | transfer between players, some subset of the player base will
           | view their effort as devalued. Some other part of the player
           | base will be delighted that while they don't necessarily have
           | the time to put into the game, they can still get help
           | progressing. There are of course the fringes of those that
           | devote themselves to supporting this market or exploiting the
           | market to support their power fantasies (which of course
           | include flexing that power on other players).
           | 
           | There are valid uses for that market though, such as those
           | aforementioned players that don't have time but would like to
           | not be stuck for inordinate amounts of time at certain power
           | levels. Basically, the same reason some games have difficulty
           | levels. Some people want the challenge, others just want to
           | experience the game.
           | 
           | > In retrospect I regret it.
           | 
           | It's sort of like allowing yourself to use a cheat in a game
           | the first time through. If you take away a significant
           | portion of the challenge when that's one of the things you're
           | there for, the game can become much less fun. Other times, it
           | just becomes a game within a game where you're playing market
           | trader or whatever, which is fun while money/resources are
           | still scarce, but then less fun after they aren't because of
           | your wealth, and then you return to the main game to find
           | it's less fun too.
        
           | maerF0x0 wrote:
           | > and gotten far more advanced
           | 
           | In some cases advanced is debatable . Chinese prisoners
           | forced to farm wow gold...
           | 
           | https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/chinese-
           | pr...
        
         | zitterbewegung wrote:
         | Yes but games now actively have to fight this or they become a
         | Money transfer agent and then you have to comply with anti
         | money laundering laws.
         | 
         | I think that Bitcoin and Ethereum tie a lot of things together
         | that make them weaker but are great technological achievements.
         | Eventually governments will regulate them properly and the
         | whole environmental impact needs at least a layer two solution.
        
         | Kevin_S wrote:
         | RS was the perfect game for me and dramatically changed my
         | life. Started when I was 12, played for YEARS slowly getting
         | better.
         | 
         | Discovered staking and scamming at the duel arena. Invented a
         | new scam and made bils. Made a sizeable chunk over a couple
         | years (enough to pay all my bills in college and a LOT of beer
         | money). Got into botting with some friends, made a little money
         | doing that too.
         | 
         | My experience with RS led me to an interest in economics, and
         | I'm now an accounting PhD student about to graduate. My bro got
         | into coding bots, and is now an SWE doing high level work.
         | 
         | I love the game to pieces, and it isn't because I made money
         | playing.
        
           | shkkmo wrote:
           | > Discovered staking and scamming at the duel arena. Invented
           | a new scam and made bils. Made a sizeable chunk over a couple
           | years (enough to pay all my bills in college and a LOT of
           | beer money)
           | 
           | Do you feel any remorse or regret about scamming people out
           | of thousands of dollars? I am a bit surprised that you are
           | bragging about this sort of unethical\illegal behavior on an
           | account directly tied to your real world identity.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | RuneScape was so famous for player scams it's a miracle
           | anyone was willing to open the trading window at all.
        
         | redisman wrote:
         | I traded custom scripts on a IRC channel. People would pay me
         | with party hats and Santa hats which were some of the most
         | ridiculously priced assets in the game.
         | 
         | The macro client even had a captcha queue where other miners
         | could earn credits by filling out the captchas other players
         | were getting and then use the credits to have other people fill
         | out their captcha. This way you could leave it running all
         | night as long as you did your part
        
         | originalvichy wrote:
         | I wonder if we'll have politicians and political philosophers
         | in the near future who will credit MMO games for awakening
         | their keen eye on societal issues.
         | 
         | MMO worlds and their economies taught many how the basics of
         | our economy works. As a kid you got exposed to virtual versions
         | of negative aspects of free markets that went against the
         | meritocratic ethos of the game. (Especially if you were one of
         | the kids not permitted to use money to buy virtual currency.)
        
           | bserge wrote:
        
         | tmp_anon_22 wrote:
         | Nitpicks because this game was my childhood. I totally support
         | your sentiment though.
         | 
         | > It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve this
         | skill level
         | 
         | * 97 logs (30 minutes)
         | 
         | * 293 oaks (1 hr)
         | 
         | * 714 willows (2.5 hr)
         | 
         | * 19,246 maple (very inefficient compared to willow cutting
         | rate - 60 hour). If you did yews it would be many hundreds of
         | hours.
         | 
         | About 70 hours done inefficiently.
         | 
         | > What if I wrote a macro
         | 
         | Macros were fine but easily detected due to the repeated
         | patterns. Botting in general was the wild west in this game
         | from about 2008 - ~2014. Interesting how botting numbers
         | drastically inflated player counts and engagement and the
         | company Jagex became a private equity darling getting bought
         | and sold several times, its almost like they had an incentive
         | to keep the practice going.
         | 
         | > Economics
         | 
         | Absolutely. I learned devops managing really inefficient gold
         | farms that got free servers from the Azure promotions when
         | Microsoft cloud launched.
        
           | 58x14 wrote:
           | Delightful, I very nearly stopped my stream of consciousness
           | to check the numbers, I wondered if anyone else would. It
           | seems many of us share nostalgia around RS.
        
             | exdsq wrote:
             | When I get really bored I create a new account for fun. I
             | normally realize it's a waste of time and stop after about
             | 6 hours of clicking trees or ores lol. However it's always
             | cool to see it's still there and normally changes quite a
             | bit every time I go back to it. Skills go to 120 nowadays
             | for example!
        
               | PascLeRasc wrote:
               | You should look into the Old School Runescape game mode.
               | Someone just made a really captivating series limiting
               | his character to just one region of the game: https://www
               | .youtube.com/watch?v=rk5XuqLrf3U&list=PLWiMc19-qa...
        
           | wswope wrote:
           | > Botting in general was the wild west in this game from
           | about 2008 - ~2014.
           | 
           | There's a weird, secret history around Runescape botting that
           | I really hope gets told in full one day.
           | 
           | Essentially, the biggest and best botting client from the
           | 2008-2011 era was Powerbot, later rebranded RSBot. It was
           | written and managed mostly by some CS student from the UK,
           | who went by the handle Jacmob, and used some bytecode editing
           | + reflection to bind game objects directly, meaning that it
           | allowed full interactivity with the underlying game, rather
           | than just a simple image recognition and mouse control
           | framework.
           | 
           | During this era, Jagex (makers of Runescape) made some big
           | efforts to combat the botting. They started using obfuscators
           | to make reverse engineering the bytecode harder, and reworked
           | the handling of all String objects internally to mask them.
           | There were more efforts, of varying success, but without
           | fail, this one guy would have the botting client (and by
           | extension, the whole botting ecosystem) back online in a week
           | or so.
           | 
           | Flash forward to 2011, and Jacmob starts teasing something
           | big for his RSBot 4.0 release: a "web-walking" API that would
           | allow script writers to input any two positions on the world
           | map, and have the botting client find them a path there,
           | navigating through buildings, portals, teleports along the
           | way. This was going to be an absolute game changer - script
           | writing required insane attention to detail, trial and error,
           | and tedium to navigate the world map in a slightly-
           | randomized/hard-to-detect way. And yet a week or so before
           | the big release... boom, another big effort comes from Jagex
           | to stop the injection clients: the Great Bot Nuke of 2011.
           | 
           | This was different from the prior attempts by Jagex. Radio
           | silence from Jacmob and the RSBot team, which was weird given
           | the pending release. As the dust settled over the following
           | weeks, it comes out that Jacmob, King of the botting
           | community, has become Mod Jacmob, employee of Jagex, with
           | very little fanfare both then and ever since. RSBot 4.0 was
           | not to be.
           | 
           | Jacmob left the company several years later, but led their
           | efforts through 2014 to combat botting, with great success.
           | There's very little information publicly available, but I
           | strongly suspect he was using the obvious strategies of
           | looking at probability distributions for click positioning on
           | game objects and delays between certain behaviors to spot
           | automation.
           | 
           | Jagex's operations have grown much sloppier after his
           | departure, but the scene has never returned to its former
           | glory pre-2011. One nerdy, talented, quiet figure was
           | responsible for so much of the Runescape community's
           | development - and yet you'd never know it without having been
           | there yourself. Quite a world we live in.
           | 
           | (@Jacmob, if happen to read this - can I interview you pls
           | <3?)
           | 
           | Edit: this is all from memory, I'm probably bungling the
           | details in quite a few places.
        
             | stnikolauswagne wrote:
             | For those interested, here is a pretty well produced video
             | on the situation:
             | 
             | https://youtu.be/4ELRFROUf64
             | 
             | One thing that was left out in your summary is how jacmob
             | was hired: Shortly after the Bot Nuke he showed up at the
             | annual convention of Jagex and showed off his (still
             | working) new Bot to the one of the heads of Jagex, who
             | ended up hiring him.
        
               | webinvest wrote:
               | The Youtuber Colonello also has a lot of good videos on
               | this topic
        
               | wswope wrote:
               | OH MY GOD. Thank you, sincerely, for the link!!
               | 
               | I left out the hiring story because it sounds so
               | apocryphal I was sure I'd made it up or was embellishing
               | my memories. So much niche drama I'd completely forgotten
               | about.
        
             | paulluuk wrote:
             | This is great, thanks for sharing!
        
             | asenna wrote:
             | So glad you shared this story. Runescape was my childhood
             | as well. Would love to hear from Jacmob if he ever sees
             | this.
        
       | yob28 wrote:
        
       | tfang17 wrote:
       | Axie is built on Ethereum, meaning in-game assets (NFTs) are
       | technically transferrable off-platform.
       | 
       | Vitalik (creator of Ethereum) attributed one of his reasons for
       | creating Ethereum to Blizzard taking away one of his in-game
       | items in World of Warcraft in 2010:
       | 
       | "I was born in 1994 in Russia and moved to Canada in 2000, where
       | I went to school. I happily played World of Warcraft during
       | 2007-2010, but one day Blizzard removed the damage component from
       | my beloved warlock's Siphon Life spell. I cried myself to sleep,
       | and on that day I realized what horrors centralized services can
       | bring. I soon decided to quit."
        
         | kranke155 wrote:
         | Pretty sure Axie has its own blockchain
        
         | robryan wrote:
         | No gameplay balancing by design sounds terrible. Release one
         | bad overpowered item or spell and the game is forever ruined.
        
       | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
       | The thing I really like about this article is that, at least in
       | my mind, it really helped me clarify what I think of as "Bullshit
       | Jobs". It's not so much "do you consider your job useless", but
       | it's more along the lines of "Is your job set up to fulfill tasks
       | that were, generally, _arbitrarily_ designed by some gatekeeper?
       | "
       | 
       | A great example of this is tax departments at large companies
       | that look for tax avoidance strategies. On one hand, these
       | strategies can save companies many millions of dollars, but on
       | the other, they really produce nothing of value and are just a
       | product of the complexities of a (human designed) tax system.
       | Lots of regulatory compliance work also goes into this bucket. I
       | wouldn't say _all_ of it, because there are definitely
       | regulations that _do_ actually make companies safer /more
       | transparent/etc., but anyone who has had to fill out a page after
       | page after page "security questionnaire" _knows_ at least half of
       | it is bullshit that nobody is going to read in the first place.
       | Sometimes I 've been tempted to just add "Mickey Mouse" answers
       | just to check if anyone sees it. Writing something _that nobody
       | ever reads_ seems like it 's hard to believe that's anything else
       | _except_ bullshit.
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | > On one hand, these strategies can save companies many
         | millions of dollars, but on the other, they really produce
         | nothing of value and are just a product of the complexities of
         | a (human designed) tax system
         | 
         | Businesses that spend less money on taxes can spend more money
         | on expenses, such as payroll and higher quality materials, or
         | it can allow them to sell products/services at a lower price,
         | providing a competitive advantage.
        
       | stickfigure wrote:
       | After seeing the word "Ponzi" haphazardly misapplied to so many
       | different things in the tech space[1], it's incredibly gratifying
       | to see it used here properly!
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29698967
        
         | paulgb wrote:
         | Thanks! I share your frustration :)
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26808561
        
       | scotty79 wrote:
       | Such games are online games where other players are part of the
       | game challenge. Some players want to play those game so much that
       | they are willing to spend insane amounts of money on this game.
       | But if the only users of the game were those players the game
       | wouldn't be as fun for them. So the game needs to incentivise
       | players that that don't want to play it that much or at all.
       | 
       | Most of the games manage this by offering free version of the
       | game to anyone willing to play. It's not as good as the version
       | paid consumers get but it's something.
       | 
       | The game mentioned in the article went the step further, not only
       | does it offer some entertainment for people for free, but pays
       | them out of profits gained from the paying players.
       | 
       | So basically gamers that earn money in that game provide
       | meaningful service for paying players by working as opponents for
       | them that enhace their entertainment. It's less bulshity job than
       | many real ones.
        
       | bgilroy26 wrote:
       | "Growth-Dependent Economy" is a nice turn of phrase
        
       | pezzana wrote:
       | > In a crypto economy crowded with vapourware and alpha-stage
       | software, Axie Infinity stands out. Not only has it amassed a
       | large base of users, the in-game economy has actually provided a
       | real-world income stream to working-class Filipinos impacted by
       | the pandemic. Some spend hours each day playing the game, and
       | then sell the in-game currency they earn to pay their real-world
       | bills. That's obviously a good thing for them, but it also
       | appears to be a near-Platonic example of Graeber's definition of
       | a bullshit job.
       | 
       | That part about the pandemic might be the most important thing in
       | the article. Would something like this have taken off had
       | pandemic restrictions not wrecked the Philippine economy?
       | 
       | A glance at the exchange rate for the Smooth Love Potion token
       | shows a vertical surge right as lockdowns started to be imposed,
       | followed by a 90% crash that started in around July of this year:
       | 
       | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
       | 
       | The start of the crash coincides with the start of noticeably
       | higher CPI in the US and well-known product demand shock. That
       | shock must have put higher upward pressure on demand for labor in
       | the developing world, making Axie less appealing.
       | 
       | I can't help but think of this as a preview into a future world
       | in which automation and economic stagnation renders ever larger
       | parts of the real economy ineffective at supporting a living
       | wage.
       | 
       | This kind of bullshit job offers a wealth transfer mechanism from
       | those who have it to those who don't, with financial speculation
       | being the conduit. Universal Basic Income is another path.
       | Revolution is a third option.
        
       | danShumway wrote:
       | Everything old is new again. You could go back and look over the
       | game design discourse about pay-to-win games and
       | microtransactions and see the same discussions about how these
       | systems would influence players and designers. You could go back
       | and look at the discussions around Facebook social games back
       | when they were a big thing. And all of those arguments still hold
       | up today.
       | 
       | Play-to-earn games are the same system, just with a bit of a
       | pyramid scheme glued on top so that players will think they're
       | part of the grift.
       | 
       | What players of these play-to-earn games are hoping is that the
       | grind in the game is so heckin awful and unpleasant that other
       | players will pay someone else in order to skip that. But I don't
       | think I'm unique in saying that I personally like my games to be
       | fun, and I think that maybe something is going wrong with a game
       | design process when a game is so much of a chore that people are
       | paying to skip the game. Imagine making a movie where people
       | didn't give you money to see it, but to _stop seeing it_ :). That
       | 's the play-to-earn model, making something so artificially
       | unpleasant and badly designed that players believe there's value
       | in making the game shorter and will literally hire someone else
       | to play it for them.
       | 
       | And this is not a new thing, you can go back to the grinding
       | process in Runescape, to Cow Clickers on Facebook, it's the same
       | grift over and over just in different decorative hats and with
       | different little sparkly jpegs. It's always the same proposition:
       | do something that's been made artificially boring and hopefully
       | you or someone else will think there's value in paying someone
       | real money to skip it.
       | 
       | ----
       | 
       | Which I guess live your truth if that's what you want out of
       | games, but I personally like games that make me excited to play
       | them or at least give me some kind of meaningful emotion, where I
       | play them because I like feeling that emotion and because the
       | gameplay is fun.
       | 
       | Incredibly, it turns out there are designers who are somehow
       | through some strange magic able to design games that are so fun
       | that they don't even need to bribe players into playing them.
       | Their games are so fun that people actually (get this) pay the
       | designers money to be able to play them _more_ , not less. It's
       | the complete inverse of the play-to-earn model where actually all
       | of the players in the game enjoy what they're doing, and the game
       | isn't just a platform for the company or for a subset of players
       | to make a job out of extracting profit from another part of the
       | playerbase's boredom, because in these games nobody in the
       | playerbase is bored.
       | 
       | If you've never tried one of these games in the "fun" genre
       | before, you've got to check them out, they're really something
       | else.
        
       | betwixthewires wrote:
       | I'm a bit of a fan of the whole cryptocurrency thing, the early
       | scope of the concept anyway, replace money, programmatic
       | agreement enforcement, creating financial assets that can't be
       | controlled, incentivizing things that need incentivizing and all
       | that. It's interesting stuff.
       | 
       | But this whole metaverse and play to earn is obvious nonsense.
       | 
       | But then, if you show me a slot machine and explain it to me in
       | plain English, that it pays out less than you put in, that it is
       | designed to addict you, that you sit there sticking quarters in
       | and pulling a handle all day, I'd laugh at you before I stuck a
       | dollar in the thing. But people do. All the time. So I'm not so
       | sure this nonsense is going to crash and burn, but I'm certain it
       | isn't worthwhile in the least.
        
       | nlh wrote:
       | A thought exercise you should undertake if you're thinking about
       | / talking about crypto/NFT/web3-related projects: If the
       | financial instrument that underlies the project were to stop
       | going up in value XX% per month, would you still be interested in
       | the project?
       | 
       | I do this a lot because I've made the conscious (and perhaps
       | financially foolish) choice to stay away from everything
       | crypto/blockchain related (for now, at least). So I have some
       | perspective in being able to ask myself "Why is this
       | interesting?" without any emotional-financial attachment. I do
       | this little exercise every time I read about some new brain-
       | twisting scheme to move money around and capture some of the
       | XX%/month rise.
       | 
       | Play-to-earn seems to fit the same mold: You can talk all you
       | want about how play-to-earn is "the new new" and how it's helping
       | people out of poverty and changing the dymanics of gaming and
       | yadda yadda yadda. But just ask yourself: If the money music
       | stopped tomorrow, would you play the game?
       | 
       | Is there a "there" there without an underlying token that's gone
       | up XX% in the last N months and everyone hopes will still go up
       | XX% in the next N months?
       | 
       | It sounds like the answer, at least when it comes to Axie
       | Infinity, is no. It doesn't sound fun. It doesn't sound
       | compelling. It DOES sound like an opportunity for people to
       | extract money from the crypto system that's fundamentally based
       | on the assumption that the crypto system will continue rising in
       | value forever.
        
         | larsiusprime wrote:
         | I did a report on this game for a client a few months back --
         | the amount of daily earnings a player can expect has crashed
         | significantly over the past few months, and it's only gotten
         | worse ever since.
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/larsiusprime/status/1459191090100244483
        
         | duskwuff wrote:
         | > Is there a there there without an underlying token that's
         | gone up XX% in the last N months and everyone hopes will still
         | go up XX% in the next N months?
         | 
         | Alternatively, even simpler: _where is the money coming from_?
         | A bunch of people playing a game are a closed system, and no
         | value is created by playing the game. If the only reason why
         | players are earning money from this game is because more people
         | are continually buying into the game and entering that system,
         | that sounds more like a pyramid scheme than anything.
        
           | mgraczyk wrote:
           | Money doesn't have to come from anywhere. Sometimes new value
           | is created and the money is brand new. This is how GDP grows.
           | 
           | In the case of BTC, it's pretty clear that a huge portion of
           | the market cap didn't come from anywhere. It's new capital.
           | That doesn't mean it can't go to 0 and vanish overnight. But
           | it does mean that play to earn games don't always need money
           | coming in to pay out.
        
           | mrtksn wrote:
           | Where the money was coming from when Facebook, Google,
           | Youtube, Twitter etc were really good places that were free
           | to use? They all were working to "make the world a better
           | place" and not making money as they were burning billions
           | each year, challenging the traditional and profitable
           | companies. With Amazon prices were amazing, you had unlimited
           | rights and not only buying but also selling was great. Bezos
           | was worth quite a much but his company never made any profit
           | up until a few years back.
           | 
           | The news business was destroyed in the process, just as the
           | retail and once the establishment lost its ground the money
           | began poring in. From 90's up to late 2000's the internet was
           | amazing as everything was paid by people who were about to
           | reap their investment back a decade later.
           | 
           | My point is, following the money is tricky. Maybe we are at
           | the verge of another change where the costs are payed by
           | crypto bros who will be splitting countries and starting wars
           | once they are done growing the landscape.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | 542458 wrote:
             | > Where the money was coming from when Facebook, Google,
             | Youtube, Twitter etc were really good places that were free
             | to use?
             | 
             | I don't think this is very mysterious. It's coming from
             | investors who are spending money in the expectation of
             | future profits as the business scales and reaches greater
             | efficiencies and increases monetization.
             | 
             | In the case of this cryptocurrency there's no obvious point
             | where these tokens suddenly become useful. People only buy
             | them because somebody else will be willing to buy them
             | later (which, of course, relies on ever-increasing amounts
             | of money entering the system). With a stock you are at
             | least theoretically anchored to real world value, since you
             | can buy out a company with stocks and then liquidate the
             | company's assets.
        
               | mrtksn wrote:
               | All these coins and projects have a mission statement and
               | high level overview on how they think it will be useful
               | in the future. It's up to you to believe them but they do
               | have a proposal.
               | 
               | The stocks are more opaque in that regard, they are
               | required to publish some declaration and financial
               | disclosure but explaining why you need to invest in that
               | company stock often comes down to CEO's appearing in the
               | press. Countless internet ventures died in the process.
        
           | gitfan86 wrote:
           | This is what people don't seem to understand about BitCoin.
           | It is cashflow negative, Money has to keep coming in to keep
           | the price up due to paying miners. It is totally fine if you
           | think BTC is better than the USD or Gold for whatever reason.
           | But Bitcoin is still cashflow negative. You have to keep
           | pumping money into it to keep up its value. Where is that
           | money going to come from? Is it coming from Tether? Is it
           | coming from people looking to make quick money? And when BTC
           | hits 1M/coin, then what? You still need more money coming in
           | to keep it above 1M.
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | Bitcoin has a use case for money laundering, tax evasion,
             | evading China's exchange controls, and drugs. That market
             | turned out to be larger than expected.
        
             | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
             | I must admit I don't understand why it is "cashflow
             | negative". I'm not invested in any crypto, but I have
             | thought about it, and my casual thoughts have come to the
             | opposite conclusion. The higher the price of a
             | cryptocurrency, the greater the interest in mining and
             | investing. It seems like a positive feedback loop to me.
             | Why is it not?
        
               | gitfan86 wrote:
               | Imagine if you had the option of buying a piece of gold
               | or a piece of land with good irrigation and good soil.
               | You can plant vegetables on the land and sell those
               | vegetables for other people to eat. Therefor your
               | investment is generating profit and "cashflow". Gold on
               | the other hand just sits there, and you may want to keep
               | it in a safe at a bank and the bank will charge you a fee
               | for storage making it negative cashflow.
               | 
               | The price of gold or land or BTC can go UP or Down, but
               | that depends on market demand of that asset. The nice
               | thing about owning the farm is that even if the value of
               | land goes down you can still sell your vegetables or eat
               | them to stay alive.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | For Proof-of-Work coins, the miners need significant
               | amounts of electricity. Electricity is not free, so
               | maintaining the network costs a significant amount of
               | money. This money is "reimbursed" to them through mining
               | rewards, but since electricity companies typically can't
               | be paid in cryptocurrencies the miners will need to sell
               | (a part of) their mining reward to pay the power bill.
               | This means that there is always a money outflow
               | proportional to the hashrate, which somehow has to be
               | made up from money inflows from users.
               | 
               | A cryptocurrency without users putting in "new" money
               | will slowly bleed out through electricity costs. This
               | will become even more "fun" in the future as all coins
               | will eventually be mined and the ginormous electricity
               | bill will need to be paid through transaction fees alone.
               | This is one of the main reasons Proof-of-Stake is getting
               | so much research btw, since it should use way less
               | electricity.
               | 
               | (The above is true for most currencies btw, even dollars
               | and euros bleed out money because they have to pay mints
               | and central bankers. The difference with those is that
               | there will always be demand for (say) dollars because US
               | citizens MUST pay their taxes in dollars. If they don't,
               | a number of measures up to and including prison can be
               | taken against them. Bitcoin has no such backstop since
               | nobody ever NEEDS a bitcoin to pay off someone.
               | Ransomware is a rare exception)
        
               | freeone3000 wrote:
               | Is ransomware that rare an occurrence? I could see
               | ransomware being the taxes of web3.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | If ransomware ever becomes big enough to rival the
               | cumulative tax bill of a nation state, you can bet that
               | combating it would get a lot more priority. Spec ops
               | teams raiding office buildings in foreign nations type
               | priority.
               | 
               | Countries are very protective of their cash flows.
        
               | thelamest wrote:
               | Where's the value _added_ coming from though, and how far
               | are you from there? If crypto enables someone to dodge
               | taxes, sell drugs, or wire remittances with less
               | overhead, that's a potential value add [arguably, with
               | externalities]. For how many of such activities do we
               | need byzantine consensus, i.e. can they stay competitive
               | in the long term with solutions built on tradfi  & SQL?
               | How much of these gains can be captured from sidelines
               | by, essentially, exchange rate traders? Positive feedback
               | loops without a sustainable value proposition will pop
               | sooner or later.
        
             | DaltonCoffee wrote:
             | This negates the idea that bitcoin or it's ilk could
             | replace USD.
             | 
             | Crypto technologies are interesting to me because of their
             | great potential for good (defi) and bad (dystopian black
             | mirror gold farms, dyson sphere fueling crpto mine, etc).
        
             | jonathan-adly wrote:
             | > This is what people don't seem to understand about
             | BitCoin. It is cashflow negative, Money has to keep coming
             | in
             | 
             | Pretty sure a sizable portion of Bitcoin holders understand
             | and know that. They don't hold Bitcoin as a form of bespoke
             | investment to be exchanged for money at some point in the
             | future. They hold it because they believe it is sound and
             | incorruptible _money_.
             | 
             | And as long as _they_ (not any additional people!) continue
             | to believe that, it will hold value.
             | 
             | It is to be seen if they are right or wrong, but they know
             | how cash flow works.
        
             | nightski wrote:
             | You aren't talking about the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.
             | You are talking about it's value relative to USD. These are
             | completely different things.
             | 
             | Bitcoin has intrinsic value outside of the fiat system. It
             | can be used entirely independent of fiat. Whether that will
             | become common is another matter, but the value of Bitcoin
             | does not have to depend solely on it's value relative to
             | USD.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | As long as miners can't pay the power company with their
               | mining rewards, bitcoin can't exist outside the fiat
               | system. The mining reward denominated in the currency the
               | miner has to pay their electricity bill in MUST be higher
               | than the electricity cost to mine the reward, otherwise
               | the miners go bankrupt.
        
               | strgcmc wrote:
               | Capital-intensive industrial-scale miners might go
               | bankrupt, but the origin of Bitcoin (starting from the
               | whitepaper) imagined an ecosystem powered by effectively
               | spare CPU cycles, where the marginal cost of electricity
               | wasn't a big factor.
               | 
               | The beauty of the design lies in the balance of the
               | incentives -- if electricity is too expensive, then sure
               | miners will drop out, which lowers the hashrate and thus
               | the security of the ecosystem, but remember that if
               | electricity is expensive for honest miners than it will
               | also be expensive for attackers. And if somehow there is
               | an asymmetry where attackers have access to cheaper
               | electricity than other honest miners, well it's likely in
               | their economic interest to simply become miners
               | themselves rather than attackers...
               | 
               | Bitcoin can easily exist at a minimal survival level that
               | is effectively outside the fiat system for all practical
               | intents and purposes, by leeching off free or near-zero
               | cost electricity (I mean, nobody cares about the
               | electricity bill for "folding@home"). In that kind of
               | mode, it may not have industrial scale and you might not
               | want to transact trillions of fiat-dollars worth of value
               | through it, but it can easily exist.
        
               | nightski wrote:
               | From my understanding that's not exactly how Bitcoin
               | mining works. It scales based on the amount of miners. So
               | if the situation is as you described (value relative to
               | USD tanks - which I find very unlikely due to
               | inflationary nature of fiat) people would stop mining
               | which would decrease the difficulty of mining causing it
               | to use less electricity.
               | 
               | There are however miners using nearly free sources of
               | electricity such as flared gas wells, solar, etc... If
               | Tesla accepts Bitcoin/Doge for solar panels then you may
               | have a system independent of fiat.
               | 
               | I'm just saying it's possible, not that I think it will
               | necessarily happen. Like I mentioned I think BTC's value
               | relative to USD will increase over time due to fiat's
               | inflationary nature (Fed is targeting 2-3% inflation).
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | > people would stop mining which would decrease the
               | difficulty of mining causing it to use less electricity.
               | 
               | This is true, but then you have a bunch of costly mining
               | ASICs sitting idle. The bitcoin network does not pay
               | miners out of the goodness of its heart but because it
               | needs a very high hash rate to defend against double
               | spend attacks. Guess what those unused ASICs might be
               | very effective at? A prolonged fall in mining power
               | caused by a falling BTC price is a death sentence for
               | bitcoin as it would lead to massive attacks by
               | opportunists renting hashing power to double spend their
               | coins. You can already see this in many smaller coins.
               | 
               | > nearly free sources of electricity such as flared gas
               | wells, solar, etc
               | 
               | Those may be cheaper than regular power, but they are not
               | free. Taking solar as an example, you need to invest
               | capital to buy the solar panels and they have a finite
               | lifespan. Cost divided by lifespan gives you the running
               | cost in $/year. Similar things are true for flared gas
               | wells; you still need to capture the energy somehow and
               | generators are not free.
               | 
               | > If Tesla accepts Bitcoin/Doge for solar panels then you
               | may have a system independent of fiat.
               | 
               | This just moves the problem by one degree of separation.
               | Unless Tesla can buy solar panels for bitcoin, they will
               | need to sell crypto for fiat to buy their inputs. This
               | goes all the way down the supply chain down to the real-
               | world miners who dig up the ores for the solar panels and
               | even they will need to pay their taxes, which you cannot
               | do in bitcoin.
               | 
               | > I think BTC's value relative to USD will increase over
               | time due to fiat's inflationary nature (Fed is targeting
               | 2-3% inflation).
               | 
               | Perhaps. I suppose that this will depend on how much the
               | maintenance costs in electricity and miner ASIC
               | replacement costs as a percentage of total bitcoin market
               | cap per year. If these costs are higher than 2-3% per
               | year, bitcoin will see a net outflow of fiat as running
               | costs and can only rise in price if new users
               | continuously flow in (and of course, only ~7 billion
               | potential users exist).
               | 
               | Also, it might be interesting to read up on why central
               | banks universally target a low but nonzero inflation.
               | There is a ton of established theory about why this is
               | desirable and none of it is based on "let's screw
               | taxpayers". Throwing that away will basically guarantee
               | that crypto will never be very useful to pay your bills
               | with.
        
               | dcolkitt wrote:
               | That's a really interesting scenario. But I'd imagine if
               | double-spends became a persistent threat, they'd just
               | hard fork to a slightly different hashing algorithm. That
               | would brick all the pre-existing ASICs.
               | 
               | In the 2018 bear market, BTC lost 82% of its market value
               | peak-to-trough. Double spend attacks by dark ASICs didn't
               | become a factor then. So most likely you'd have to see
               | BTC fall by 95% or more before this became a threat.
        
             | anonporridge wrote:
             | Isn't the same true of gold?
             | 
             | The gold supply is inflating at about the same rate as
             | bitcoin right now, but has enough incoming cash flows to
             | keep the priced propped up enough to maintain a $10
             | trillion market cap. Obviously some of that incoming cash
             | flow is for actually generative industrial use cases, but
             | it's a minority,
             | https://www.statista.com/statistics/299609/gold-demand-by-
             | in.... The lion's share of incoming money flow is for
             | jewelry, long term savings/investment, and central bank
             | holdings, and you could argue that most of the jewelry use
             | case only exists because it's a good store of value, since
             | we can easily make jewelry that looks as pretty for much
             | cheaper than the real thing.
             | 
             | So, since most of the cashflows into gold are just people
             | holding long term with the expectation that there will
             | still be people wanting to buy it for investment purposes
             | in the future, and this scheme has worked incredibly well
             | for 5000 years, why couldn't the same be true of bitcoin?
        
               | mertd wrote:
               | You need to pay the miners just to be able to transact
               | with Bitcoin. Gold on the contrary, you can just hand it
               | over to someone else.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | Bitcoin is unlikely to have a 5,000 year lifespan because
               | unlike gold it can be obsoleted.
        
               | webinvest wrote:
               | It's likely after some number of years, most people will
               | have lost their Bitcoins and there won't be many left in
               | circulation.
        
           | nathias wrote:
           | There are no closed systems, and players playing a game does
           | create value. It's almost the only important aspect of
           | software's value - users. Anyone can write some garbage
           | software, or hire people to do it, not anyone can make things
           | people will want to use.
        
           | diarrhea wrote:
           | Probably a Ponzi, not a pyramid, scheme, no?
        
           | user-the-name wrote:
           | This is the most crucial question about _everything_ crypto-
           | related.
           | 
           | Because it turns out every crypto market is a negative-sum
           | game. If you invest, you are _guaranteed_ to lose on average.
           | If you do happen to win, your gains are coming out of the
           | pocket of someone else who lost even more.
           | 
           | The price of the token in question doesn't enter into this at
           | all. It can rise, fall, anything. It is still a negative-sum
           | game, but some people have not yet realised that they lost.
        
             | StanislavPetrov wrote:
             | >It is still a negative-sum game, but some people have not
             | yet realised that they lost.
             | 
             | And some people have not lost at all. As a lifelong poker
             | player, the calculus is very much the same. A poker game
             | where rake is taken out is a negative-sum game. But that
             | doesn't mean that every player loses, even if they play
             | forever. There will be more net losses than net wins, but
             | these are not evenly distributed.
        
             | dcolkitt wrote:
             | > Because it turns out every crypto market is a negative-
             | sum game.
             | 
             | [Citation needed]
             | 
             | You can't just hand wave and assume this to be true. If the
             | world's major investors decide that crypto represents a
             | store of value, then that's a positive-sum game for crypto.
             | If stablecoins transacted on smart contract chains generate
             | demand for Ethereum to pay for the network transaction
             | fees, then that's a positive-sum game for crypto. If new
             | enterprises start raising capital through DeFi and DAOs
             | instead of traditional capital markets, that's a positive-
             | sum game.
        
         | Nbox9 wrote:
         | > If the financial instrument that underlies the project were
         | to stop going up in value XX% per month, would you still be
         | interested in the project?
         | 
         | I use this yard stick when reviewing all of my tech
         | investments. Providing real value with interesting
         | technological innovations is why ETH outperformed every other
         | alt-coin, just like why Amazon and Google survived the dotcom
         | bust. It seems fundamentally unfair to ask this question
         | specifically of "crypto/NFT/web-3" when it applies equally to
         | all assets and projects.
        
         | vmception wrote:
         | > A thought exercise you should undertake if you're thinking
         | about / talking about crypto/NFT/web3-related projects: If the
         | financial instrument that underlies the project were to stop
         | going up in value XX% per month, would you still be interested
         | in the project?
         | 
         | There are hundreds of ways for that answer to be yes, and this
         | is what is attracting so many builders to the space and why it
         | builds so fast.
         | 
         | Many crypto enthusiasts and the skeptics that surround them are
         | looking at linear bets. Put in X capital, receive X+Y% of
         | capital back, or lose X-Y%. Although very popular approach, it
         | is basically the tip of the iceberg of what's going on.
         | 
         | You can start with no capital and earn the crypto. You can earn
         | lots of it. The price of what you earn can stay flat. The price
         | of what you earn can decrease and you still come out ahead,
         | because you are earning a lot. Not different than earning
         | shares at a FAANG (or NAAAM these days?), except in crypto the
         | earning is is waaaay faster than FAANG vesting periods, and
         | every project has waaaay more upside without wasting decades of
         | your life praying for exit liquidity at a private startup.
         | 
         | So the basis of your question is really project dependent. If I
         | found a way to earn Axie SLP, NFTs, or Axie tokens fast, I
         | wouldn't care about the exchange rate of any of those (unless
         | the dilution outpaced the point of earning) and I think you -
         | and many others - are missing that.
         | 
         | A lot of people stand up smart contract products that accept
         | existing assets as deposit, and take a few basis points of the
         | assets upon deposit or withdrawal, and thats the whole business
         | model. They all do different things thats usually solving an
         | interest or need for the people with the other assets.
         | Completely passive income. I've even seen code that will accept
         | an asset, take the cut, and immediately exchange the cut for a
         | stablevalue asset, all initiated and paid for by the user that
         | made the deposit.
         | 
         | There are many non-linear earning opportunities in this space.
         | Many rival what the largest tech companies offer, even if the
         | exchange rates of the things earned stayed flat. So the
         | calculus is pretty clear: smugly exploit yourself for an ad
         | conglomerate, or directly earn and build in this other even
         | faster moving economy.
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | Is there any difference why anyone would invest in the stock
         | market? Of course people asset prices to inflate. Isn't that
         | the whole point of investing in anything?
        
           | z3rgl1ng wrote:
           | Actually, originally no; stocks paid dividends.
        
             | dcolkitt wrote:
             | Ethereum also pays dividends in the form of staking
             | rewards.
             | 
             | About 7% today, and most likely going to 10%+ post-merge.
             | That makes the yield on Ethereum significantly higher than
             | the majority of stocks in developed markets.
        
         | joshgrib wrote:
         | Agree with this reasoning - NFTs seem like they clearly have
         | little to no real value and I think the people buying them
         | understand that and are just doing speculation (and we know how
         | that ends up). BTC/ETH are a little harder to gauge because
         | they market themselves as alternative currencies rather than a
         | product in-and-of-itself, but I still get the same fear that
         | it's entirely based on sentiment and nothing in the real world.
         | One article (or Elon tweet) could cause it all to drop
         | overnight.
         | 
         | The USD might fall the same way, but it'd be slower and would
         | require real-world change to happen instead of people just
         | deciding not to use something anymore, and it's so tied up in
         | the global currency exchange that we'd have way bigger problems
         | to worry about than "my investment account lost all it's
         | money". I'm pretty risk averse so I get that other people would
         | want to play that game, I'm just not much of a gambler.
         | 
         | Ethereum seems slightly better than Bitcoin for the reasons you
         | stated as well - ETH could drop to almost zero value and smart
         | contracts would still be cool, but ultimately I'm into the
         | tech. Feels a lot like having a lot of reddit karma to me -
         | it's cool to the people that think it's cool, but doesn't mean
         | much outside of that, unless you can convince someone that does
         | think it's cool to take your fake assets and trade them for
         | "real" assets.
        
         | ericjang wrote:
         | I agree with your point that the operative word here is "earn",
         | and not "play".
         | 
         | To play the devil's advocate: many crypto developers continue
         | to build in the space (or have done it in the past) despite
         | large drawdowns in token prices (denominated in USD). Would
         | that constitute a sufficient signal that "there is something
         | real there", distinct from the question of "is the valuation
         | too high"?
        
           | NieDzejkob wrote:
           | Nah, it's just that the target audience ("investors") won't
           | care about the few bucks.
        
           | xg15 wrote:
           | I'd say no.
           | 
           | This might just as well be an "emperor's new clothes"
           | situation, in which a significant number of people are either
           | deluded in thinking there is something of value or heavily
           | invested in making others believe so. Neither of which means
           | there is actually anything "real" there.
           | 
           | Shared delusions are a thing.
        
         | Havoc wrote:
         | >would you still be interested in the project?
         | 
         | Sure, my fear is that my average peer won't be though. Even if
         | I can see the technical merits...if all my peers are just in it
         | for that quick buck this is going to end badly
        
       | EGreg wrote:
       | Did the SEC give Axie Infinity a no-action letter? How do they
       | get around the securities laws thing?
        
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